Starting the week 2-0 with our erudite flip-a-coin predictions (Bowling Green's "upset" of Akron Tuesday and NIU covering easily against Ball St; wish I could claim Kent St losing as a pick, but it wasn't going out on a limb!) gives us confidence as we proceed into the weekend's games!
As a reminder, we do NOT provide betting spreads in reference to actually placing money as bets on games. We DO NOT recommend betting on any sports activities. The information here is meant to be informational, recreational, and for the sheer heck of it.
We only have one solid pick for the lead-up games: Memphis should be favored by LESS than a TD at Temple. We have them just one tier apart, but Vegas credits this as a ten-point gap (the seven points plus accounting for three more with the Owls as the home team). It should be a close game; we would call it even.
So, let's look at Saturday's games! For the record, our actual "betting choices" will be underlined. (Just because we comment on a game doesn't mean we think the spread is wrong...)
***One of the things we've learned in grouping teams is that while the spread between individual tiers is generally between 1-2 points per tier, there are occasions when the far ends (tiers A and U) will "spread out more"; that is, the bell curve will stretch out to increase the gap between, say, teams in tiers T and U. Certainly, by mathematics, Tulsa is only one tier above SMU, and playing at home means the Golden Hurricane should get 4-5 points. The spread is twelve, and we agree. SMU is not just bad: they're horrific. Considering the great job June Jones had done with the recently defunct program, it's amazing how far off the map they've fallen. But when a 1-7 Tulsa team is a 12-point favorite to you, Mustangs...well, we're sorry.
***It's interesting to look at the places where the line differs from our tiers, and wonder who's wrong. In the MAC, it appears we did very well; with Iowa @ Minnesota and Baylor @ Oklahoma, though, it's hard not to wonder. The Hawkeyes are favored by two on the road against a team from their own tier. And frankly, we don't have the guts to disagree - the Gophers haven't looked as good recently, and they've faded in previous years. But we do like Baylor to cover and even WIN at Oklahoma, who is not the national favorite they were made out to be in August. (So...call it a compromise?)
***Similarly down south, Georgia is a ten point favorite AT Kentucky, just one tier below them...but it's easy to picture the Dawgs wanting to beat someone down after the shellacking Florida gave them last week. Not a bad point spread, even if Kentucky never gets any love. And Duke also suffers from poor image, even as they hold the keys to another division championship - they're only a 3 1/2 point fave at Syracuse. We like Duke to win this by more than that.
***Poor Texas A&M - three TD underdogs at Auburn Saturday. What high hopes they had! Now, with their QB situation so unsettled, it's hard to see them being in this game at all.
***Troy gets a TD against fellow Bottom Sixer Georgia St? Interesting...As noted above, the regular rules don't apply at the ends. But Appalachian St as a favorite against UL-Monroe? No chance. Take Monroe to win. We have that as a three-tier gap the other way. And Army should be favored over U Conn, not the other way around, especially AT Army! Finally, in the lower ranks, we see Florida International beating Old Dominion, even on the road; they're 4 1/2 point dogs in Vegas' eyes.
***The faith in Michigan fascinates us. Northwestern may indeed be fading, but to trust the Wolverines on the road right now - or ANYWHERE right now - is an act of true faith.
***The six big games this weekend are pretty easy to spot: Kansas St @ TCU (we like the Frogs), Ohio St @ Michigan St (we like the home team, no matter which school would have hosted this one), Oregon @ Utah (9 1/2 points is a big line, but we're not going against it), Alabama @ LSU (we have a hard time giving the Tide a TD here...aw, shoot. Go ahead and take LSU and the six points.), Notre Dame @ Arizona St (a really interesting line - Sun Devils by 1 1/2. We're inclined to take the Irish instead. They know how to win big games.), and the aforementioned Baylor @ Oklahoma (Bears over Sooners). They should ALL be great - keep the clicker handy!
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