College football rankings following Week 10 - FBS

Here are the updated Following Football ACNC tiers and rankings for the FBS teams following the games of November 3-7...Alabama takes over the #1 spot, despite their early season loss to Mississippi State - and if that's a problem for you, ask yourself what the betting odds would look like were they to play any of the undefeated teams on a neutral field! (They were 6 1/2 point favorites against #1 LSU Saturday - and justified it in spades!). In fact, three of our four playoff teams have a loss, but more important is how you're playing NOW. Big movers include OU, moving up from #9; Stanford (#11 to #5), North Carolina (from #28 to #21); falling somewhat were LSU (just to #7) and TCU (to #13).

Notice that we've now ranked ALL 128 teams, all the way down to our Bottom Eight, with Eastern Michigan at the very bottom, losing to almost-equally pathetic Miami of Ohio.

FF tier	Team	Conf	CfRec		OvRec
A1	Alabama	secW	5	1	8	1
A2	Clemson	accA	6	0	9	0
A3	Notre Dame	ind			8	1
A4	Oklahoma	b12	5	1	8	1
B5	Stanford	pacN	7	0	8	1
B6	Ohio St	b10e	5	0	9	0
B7	LSU	secW	4	1	7	1
B8	Oklahoma St	b12	6	0	9	0
B9	Baylor	b12	5	0	8	0
C10	Mississippi St	secW	3	2	7	2
C11	Iowa	b10w	5	0	9	0
C12	Florida	secE	6	1	8	1
C13	TCU	b12	5	1	8	1
C14	Utah	pacS	5	1	8	1
C15	Michigan	b10e	4	1	7	2
D16	Michigan St	b10e	4	1	8	1
D17	UCLA	pacS	4	2	7	2
D18	Ole Miss	secW	4	2	7	3
D19	Temple	aacE	5	0	8	1
D20	Georgia	secE	4	3	6	3
E21	North Carolina	accC	5	0	8	1
E22	Houston	aacW	5	0	9	0
E23	Florida St	accA	5	2	7	2
E24	Auburn	secW	2	4	5	4
E25	Texas A&M	secW	3	3	6	3
E26	Navy	aacW	5	0	7	1
E27	Wisconsin	b10w	5	1	8	2
F28	Memphis	aacW	4	1	8	1
F29	USC	pacS	4	2	6	3
F30	Toledo	macW	4	1	7	1
F31	BYU	ind			7	2
G32	North Carolina St	accA	2	3	6	3
G33	Arkansas	secW	3	2	5	4
G34	Oregon	pacN	4	2	6	3
G35	Boise St	mwM	4	1	7	2
G36	Northwestern	b10w	3	2	7	2
G37	Tennessee	secE	3	3	5	4
G38	Northern Illinois	macW	4	1	6	3
G39	Washington	pacN	2	4	4	5
G40	Virginia Tech	accC	2	3	4	5
G41	Western Kentucky	cusaE	6	0	8	2
G42	Bowling Green	macE	5	0	7	2
G43	Duke	accC	3	2	6	3
H44	Pitt	accC	4	1	6	3
H45	Louisville	accA	4	2	5	4
H46	West Virginia	b12	1	4	4	4
H47	Louisiana Tech	cusaW	5	1	7	3
H48	California	pacN	2	4	5	4
H49	Appalachian St	sun	4	1	7	2
H50	Miami-FL	accC	3	2	6	3
I51	Washington St	pacN	4	2	6	3
I52	Georgia Tech	accC	1	5	3	6
I53	Minnesota	b10w	1	4	4	5
I54	Cincinnati	aacE	2	3	5	4
I55	Penn St	b10e	4	2	7	3
I56	Vanderbilt	secE	1	4	3	6
I57	Kansas St	b12	0	5	3	5
I58	Arizona St	pacS	2	4	4	5
I59	Missouri	secE	1	5	4	5
J60	Kentucky	secE	2	5	4	5
J61	Texas	b12	3	3	4	5
J62	Western Michigan	macW	5	0	5	3
J63	Texas Tech	b12	2	5	5	5
J64	Arizona	pacS	2	5	5	5
J65	San Diego St	mwW	5	0	6	3
J66	South Carolina	secE	1	6	3	6
J67	Nebraska	b10w	2	4	4	6
K68	Arkansas St	sun	5	0	6	3
K69	Illinois	b10w	2	3	5	4
K70	Indiana	b10e	0	5	4	5
K71	Central Michigan	macW	4	1	5	4
K72	Air Force	mwM	4	1	6	3
K73	South Florida	aacE	3	2	5	4
K74	Boston College	accA	0	7	3	7
L75	East Carolina	aacE	2	4	4	6
L76	Georgia Southern	sun	4	1	6	2
L77	Iowa St	b12	2	4	3	6
L78	Marshall	cusaE	5	1	8	2
L79	Southern Miss	cusaW	4	1	6	3
L80	U Conn	aacE	3	3	5	5
L81	Utah St	mwM	4	2	5	4
M82	Middle Tennessee	cusaE	3	2	4	5
M83	Virginia	accC	2	3	3	6
N84	Purdue	b10w	1	4	2	7
N85	Akron	macE	2	3	4	5
N86	Syracuse	accA	1	4	3	6
N87	Wake Forest	accA	1	5	3	6
N88	Tulsa	aacW	2	3	5	4
N89	Colorado	pacS	1	5	4	6
O90	Maryland	b10e	0	5	2	7
O91	Rutgers	b10e	1	5	3	6
O92	Ohio	macE	2	3	5	4
O93	Nevada	mwW	3	2	5	4
O94	Buffalo	macE	3	2	5	4
O95	Colorado St	mwM	2	3	4	5
P96	UNLV	mwW	2	3	3	6
P97	San Jose St	mwW	3	2	4	5
P98	Oregon St	pacN	0	6	2	7
Q099	New Mexico	mwM	3	2	5	4
Q100	Troy	sun	2	3	3	6
Q101	UL-Lafayette	sun	3	1	4	4
Q102	Rice	cusaW	2	3	4	5
Q103	Florida International	cusaE	3	3	5	5
Q104	SMU	aacW	0	5	1	8
R105	Tulane	aacW	1	5	2	7
R106	Ball St	macW	2	4	3	7
R107	Florida Atlantic	cusaE	2	4	2	7
S108	Idaho	sun	2	4	3	6
S109	Kent St	macE	2	3	3	6
S110	Hawai'i	mwW	0	6	2	8
S111	New Mexico St	sun	2	3	2	7
T112	Texas St	sun	1	3	2	6
T113	South Alabama	sun	2	2	4	4
T114	Old Dominion	cusaE	2	3	4	5
T115	Fresno St	mwW	1	5	2	7
T116	U Massachusetts	macE	0	5	1	8
U117	Kansas	b12	0	6	0	9
U118	Wyoming	mwM	1	5	1	9
U119	Army	ind			2	7
U120	UTEP	cusaW	2	3	4	5
U121	Miami-OH	macE	1	5	2	8
U122	North Texas	cusaW	1	5	1	8
U123	UT-San Antonio	cusaW	1	4	1	8
V124	Georgia St	sun	1	3	2	6
V125	UNC-Charlotte	cusaE	0	6	2	7
V126	Central Florida	aacE	0	6	0	10
V127	UL-Monroe	sun	0	5	1	8
W128	Eastern Michigan	macW	0	6	1	9

Thursday Thoughts - Braindroppings

Today, we want to jump all over the landscape and ask a ton of questions, point out a ton of interesting thoughts, and...well, if George Carlin were still around, he'd call these "Braindroppings"! So, here goes!

What makes a team a dynasty? Three titles in a row, like Hawthorn just achieved in the AFL? Does five in fifteen years count, like the NBA's San Antonio Spurs? What about the Patriots, who've won four and been to seven Super Bowls in the Belechick/Brady era (about fourteen years)? Certainly the 1950s-60s Boston Celtics count - they're the very definition of a dynasty! Eight in a row, eleven in thirteen years...but which of those is more important? Is winning over a long period of time, even if you missed a couple in between, "better" than the string over three or four years? What do you think?

Concussion protocols...without question, better than it's been in previous years, when you could convince your coach you were good to go play even when the other team seems to have twice as many players as they legally should have. But please, footy, football, every other kind of real contact sport - don't assume the problem's fixed! The iffy nature of concussions to begin with makes dealing with them nebulous in the best of times, and as we learn more and more about how much time it actually takes to recover from the hit, we have to change how we deal with it. Opinion?

Specials... which is what many coaches call "trick plays". Washington pulled a good one last night, a double pass which scored their first touchdown and led to an upset of USC in LA. SC State had a great one that I first saw the Rams pull on Seattle last year, where you have a punt returner fake like he's getting the punt, when in reality it's the guy on the opposite sideline who's catching the ball and (in last night's game) scoring a touchdown on the runback! (Bethune-Cookman won anyway, however, in a game which may have decided the MEAC.) So, the question that bugs some people is this - are "specials" basically cheating? If you can't win playing "correctly" (or "like men", if you want to really get machismo on this), you have to "resort to trick plays" to try to "cheat" your way to victory! My response - first of all, the plays are legal, so it's not cheating. Second of all, it's the brain versus brawn argument, and football has room for both. If you're okay with a team using the forward pass to win, which many in the early days of the AAFC and NFL weren't for the same reason (c'mon! Be a man and run at me!), you really can't complain about the double pass, or any other "trickeration", as our idol Chris Petersen would say. Petersen, of course, was the one who called the double pass that beat USC last night, and famously brought the house down in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl with a host of trick plays at the end of the game to pull out the Boise State victory over vaunted Oklahoma. What most people forget is that, until a great OU drive and a brainfade interception, Boise had OU soundly beaten (28-10, late in the third) with old-fashioned, hard-nosed, "my linemen are better than yours" football. You've gotta have the guys who can pull it off, too. Your thoughts?

Speaking of Boise v Oklahoma, the perpetual argument over whether a school from outside the Power Five conferences should ever play for a national championship rages, and will continue to until one gets in and then wins the tournament. The CFP folks threw the Group of Five conferences a nice bone by guaranteeing their best team a spot in the high-paying bowl games in the New Year's Six, which is more than they've had. But what if (to choose a team besides Boise, our personal favorite!) Temple or Toledo, both of whom look spectacular this year, goes undefeated in 2015, looks phenomenal in doing so, and two of the power conferences fail to produce any team the committee feels is worthy of a playoff bid? Who's to say that an undefeated Temple isn't a better choice than, say, a three-loss Florida State? What would be wrong with that? Think back to that 2007 Fiesta Bowl, which some say was the best game of all time (as much as I love Boise St, I'd go with USC/Texas in the BCS title game the year Vince Young won it for the Longhorns). Utah had been the first "mid-major" to qualify for a big bowl, but they played a five-loss Pitt team from a pathetic Big East, won, and proved nothing. Boise was the first mid-major to play in the spotlight against a top ten team - and not just any, but 7-time national champion Oklahoma, Big 12 champs, one loss, Adrian Peterson at RB. Somehow the screwed up rankings had BSU #7 and OU #9, but the Sooners were absurd betting favorites - David and Goliath was referenced multiple times in the intro. BSU dominated the game, and if it weren't for a Bronco punt coverage mistake late in the 3rd, Oklahoma was ready to give up. In fact, over the span of games that mid-major teams played in BCS bowl games, their record was 5-2. (And one of those losses was to another mid-major, when they pitted TCU and BSU against each other the year they both qualified. The other was Hawaii's debacle loss to Georgia, proving there's an exception to every rule.) Why can't a Boise St, a Houston, a Memphis, a Toledo, a Temple, a Navy, a Northern Illinois play for the title?

Bodybag games...New Mexico State is getting about a million dollars towards balancing its athletic budget ($4.4 M over, last year) to go to the University of Mississippi and be a forty-three point underdog to a top-notch SEC team. Basically, they're being paid to be the Washington Generals. Remember the Generals? The Globetrotters' perpetual opponents? Name anything about them besides that. Thought so... Ole Miss wants a week off from the gauntlet of the SEC, wants to fill their stadium, give their fans a "guaranteed win" (as LSU will tell you about Jacksonville St, "no such thing"!), and is giving about a one-seventh share of the profits to the opponent for the privilege of being beaten badly. Some teams are notorious for needing these games to stay afloat - Following Football's favorite team, the MEAC's punching bag Savannah State, played Oklahoma St and Florida St in consecutive weeks two years ago, lost the first one 88-0, and would've lost the second to the national champs by worse if they hadn't gone to a running clock in the second half to finish early and avoid a storm coming in. Up here in the Northwest, I always pity the Idaho Vandals, who moved to the big-time because Boise St did, but in little Moscow, Idaho, they don't have the fan base or the resources to afford the lifestyle of an FBS football program. So instead of being the top-notch FCS program they were for decades, rivals with the Montanas of the realm, they're stuck as a bottom-feeder in the lowly Sun Belt conference, taking two payday games a year (this year at USC and Auburn) to financially survive another one-win season. Where's the shame in moving to FCS before your entire program disbands (see UAB)? Why don't schools like NMSU, Idaho, and several others improve both their bottom line AND their competitive results and return to the FCS where their school setting suggests they should be anyway? Your thoughts?

Weekend Wesults!

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times... There were ups, and there were downs... highs, and lows... successes, and failures...

If the West Coast Eagles could have kicked against the broad side of a flipp'n barn, we would probably have nailed our AFL Grand Final prediction. As it was, instead of Hawthorn winning their third straight final 110-88, the score was 107-61...with star Eagles like Jack Darling and Josh Kennedy kicking like the ball was made out of meat or something. It was decided by halftime; Rex Hunt's famous fat lady sang in the second quarter, just like last year. Our final results for the 2015 season: 150-56 overall, and against the spread we went 123-83. We fell to second in our division of the tipping contest when the person behind us also thought the Eagles would kick terribly, it seems, and passed us on margin only. Oh well!

In the CFL, we got three out of four winners right (Calgary managed to win in Hamilton, 35-33), and went 2-2 against the spread, so our season is now at 35-25 overall and 32-26-2 ATS.

In the NFL, we split our predictions last week between the games we felt good predicting and the ones we felt uncertain about. Turns out...there's not much difference.

With our "sure thing" games? 6-2 against the spread, 5-3 overall.
With our "flip a coin" games? 5-2 both against the spread AND overall.
Total: 11-4 ATS, 10-5 straight up. One more winner ATS, one more loser straight up.

Huh....

Overall now, we're 40-22 straight up and 41-21 ATS.  

Finally, with the college games, there were some holes-in-one on our part...

"Take Clemson to win" over favored Notre Dame? 24-22, Tigers. 
"TCU wins by a lot more than 15"? TCU 50, Texas 7.
"Can't believe A&M's not favored at home!" Aggies win over MSU, 30-17. 
"BGSU wins by LESS than nine" - Bowling Green 28-22 over Buffalo.
And Western Illinois over Southern Illinois by 1? Western 37, Southern 36! 

And then.... well, some were atrocious: "Tech by double digits!" (UNC 38, GT 31)..."Don't trust the Hawkeyes: UW to win and cover!" (Iowa 10, Wisconsin 6)..."We have (UCLA) higher on every metric!" (Arizona St 38, Bruins 23)..."We like NIU to win by MUCH MORE than (two) - Central Michigan 29, Northern Illinois 19...and the worst sin of all, not having faith in a five-time defending champion to rise up as an underdog (and we're NOT talking about Alabama's shellacking of Georgia, although we could - we missed that one too!) - North Dakota St rose up as a three-point underdog at South Dakota St, their archrival, and whipped them 28-7.

So, our overall results this week: In the FBS games, we went a respectable 42-19 straight up, but a terrible 24-33 against the spread! With the FCS, we had no Vegas spread to go with (and we need to stop treating the Sagarin numbers like they're from oddsmakers!), so all we can say is that we went a very excellent 44-10 picking our FCS winners (and it would've been better had we not gone 2-4 within our home conference, the Big Sky!). 

Oh, and the Valparaiso/Davidson game we said would be 2-0 Valpo? Try 42-35 Valpo. Turns out it wasn't a lack of offense - it was a lack of defense...

Our overall record as of October 5th... 367-93 picking winners only; 212-188-2 against the spread.  [STILL better than "Twilight"!] That's just under 80% straight up and 53% ATS.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS - Vegas' thoughts on the NFL and NCAA

Welcome to Thursday Thoughts, and today's thoughts are regarding the outcomes of the American brand of football, currently in pre-production but opening at a stadium near you in the next few weeks!

Ya wanna start with the pros first? Okee-doky! 

Here are the combined rankings from six leading prognosticators, including scouting combines, media sources, and casino oddsmakers, on a 4-3-2-1 vote from top to bottom:

A perfect score would be 24 (six groups score a team as most likely to win the division). FOUR teams are considered locks to win their NFL divisions...

AFC East: New England

AFC South: Indianapolis

NFC North: Green Bay

NFC West: Seattle

Not coincidentally, those are the four teams considered most likely to win the Super Bowl this year! Green Bay was chosen as Super Bowl 50 champion in four of the six surveys; Indy and Seattle won one each.

The other division winners are projected as follows: 

AFC West: Denver (5 of 6 chose the Broncos)

 AFC North: Baltimore (4 of 6 chose the Ravens)

NFC East: Dallas (3 out of 6 chose the Cowboys, with one tie)

NFC South: Carolina (3 out of six chose the Panthers, with one tie).

Overall, adding up the general perceptions of these six organizations, we get something like this:

AFC playoff teams                                                     NFC playoff teams

1. Indianapolis (#3 overall)                                          1. Green Bay (#1 overall)

2. New England (#4 overall)                                        2. Seattle (#2 overall)

[So, the consensus is a new match-up in the Super Bowl this year!]

3. Denver (#5 overall)                                                  3. Dallas (#6 overall)

4. Baltimore (#8 overall)                                              4. Carolina (#14 overall)

5. Pittsburgh (#9 overall)                                             5. Philadelphia (#7 overall)

6. Cincinnati (#11 overall)                                            6. Arizona (#10 overall)

[Not many new teams...and close races in the AFC North and NFC East again!...]

Below those teams...

7. Miami (#12 overall)                                                  7. New Orleans (#17 overall)

[AND the NFC South again, though they maybe not so lousy...and Miami missed by ONE vote!]

8. Kansas City (#13 overall)                                         8. Minnesota (#18 overall)

9. Buffalo (#15 overall)                                                9. New Jersey Giants (#19 overall)

10. San Diego (#16 overall)                                         10. Detroit (#21 overall)

11. Houston (#20 overall)                                            11. Atlanta (#22 overall)

12. New Jersey Jets (#25 overall)                                12. St. Louis (#23 overall)

13. Jacksonville (#28 overall)                                      13. San Francisco (#24 overall)

14. Cleveland (#30 overall)                                          14. Chicago (#26 overall)

15. Oakland (#31 overall)                                             15. Washington (#27 overall)

16. Tennessee (#32 overall)                                         16. Tampa Bay (#29 overall)

Our meta-analysis is that these folks aren't taking the last-becomes-first-overnight nature of the NFL into account enough...but then, how do you predict unpredictability, anyway?

As for the NCAA crown, well, there's one definitive front-runner there, too...

Here are the odds from the top tier of one of the major worldwide gambling sites as of this week:

Winner of the 2016 NCAA (Division 1A) FBS Championship Game

Ohio State (5 to 1 odds)

Alabama (8.5 to 1)

TCU (9 to 1)
Auburn, USC (both 15 to 1)
Oregon (17 to 1)
Baylor and Florida St (19 to 1)
LSU and Michigan State (21 to 1)
Clemson and Oklahoma (26 to 1)
Notre Dame (29 to 1)
UCLA, Georgia, and Ole Miss (all 34 to 1)
Mississippi State and Stanford (both 41 to 1)

From there, it descends into about ten teams at each level, as you get into the "just how unrealistic IS this?" game. These numbers seem very typical of the thinking most pundits have at the moment. [My personal thought reading the rest of the list is that if you were going to put a Group of Five team in that CFP this year, it would have to be Boise State, as they're the only one with a track record long enough that an undefeated season might just get them in. It's strange, then, in a season where they're universal favorites to win the Mountain West (only Ohio State is as big a conference fave), they're sitting BEHIND five Group of Five teams, TWO of which are in the Mountain West - the same teams they're predicted to whup this year. Weird. It's not like it's going to ever happen, but it might be worth plunking a fiver down on the Broncos at 251-1 to win the national championship!] 

Ohio State is certainly everyone's favorite at the moment, deservedly so. As mentioned, the Buckeyes and Broncos are the only teams in the realm of get-back-less-than-what-you-bet favorites to win their conferences, both around the "bet three or four to win one" dollar mark. But that's a hard target to wear on your back all season long - you'll have to be able to win when you're not playing well. because everyone will come at you with their best shot this year! 

Speaking of college football, how about a few early predictions?

While here at Following Football:ACNC we don't rank our teams early so as not to bias ourselves against what we see, there's nothing to stop us from guessing how things are going to turn out! So, holding back the right to adjust these predictions as circumstances warrant until the season actually starts in September, here are some thoughts as they pertain to the actual conference races this fall...

Atlantic Coast Conference:
- The winner of the Florida St @ Clemson game wins the ACC title. (We bet Clemson.)
- Louisville 3rd and NC St 4th in the Atlantic; everyone else is putrid.
- Flip a coin between Miami, Georgia Tech, and Va-Tech for the Coastal crown...
-...we're taking Miami in an upset right now.
- Duke will still be good; just not AS good. 4th place. 
- Since UNC goes TO Pitt, we'll take Pitt for 5th and the Tar Heels 6th. 
- It'll be Al Golden's last year at Virginia, as they finish 7th in the Coastal division.

The B1G (the Big Ten, which of course has 14 teams):
- Ohio State is as good as they say. Undefeated season going into the CFP.
- Michigan State would be champs except for the Buckeyes.
- Penn St gets the Wolverines at home, so they get 3rd and Harbaugh gets 4th.
- The rest of the division is bad. Take Rutgers, Maryland, and Indiana in that order.
- Take Minnesota for the West Division! They get BOTH Wisc and Neb at home!
- Wisconsin will be ready to pounce on another division crown if the Gophers fail.
- Nebraska third, and nobody close behind them.
(But plan on Iowa, NW, Illinois, and terrible Purdue if you have to.)

The XII (the Big Twelve, which of course has 10 teams):
- TCU all the way, including a pounding of Baylor in Fort Worth and a trip to the CFP.
- The rest of the real class in the XII is Baylor and OU, who we see 2nd and 3rd.
- There's a logjam for mediocrity, which we're deciphering as Texas, K-St, OSU, and WVU.
- The bottom of the conference is still poor. Tech 8th, ISU 9th, KU 10th.

The Pac-12 Conference:
- Two tight races at the top: we'll flip a coin down south and say UCLA has the slightly easier road.
- Up north, we've a hunch that it's finally Stanford's year to get through OU to the CFP!
- The four other good teams in the conference are Arizona, Utah, Cal, and ASU. In that order.
- UW might join them, but let's see them against Boise St first. If they win there, then yes.
- Wazzu and Oregon St may have some chances to at least go to a bowl.
- Colorado definitely does NOT.

The Southeastern Conference:
- We're staying with 'Bama until they prove us wrong. Division, conference, CFP.
-...but LSU and Auburn are good choices, too, should "In Saban we trust" falter.
- 4th/5th is tight between Ole Miss and Arkansas; their game is in Mississippi, so we take the Rebels.
- 6th/7th would be 1st/2nd in most conferences. Here, it's placing Miss St in the cellar because A&M wins in Texas.
- Georgia's the only team in the Eastern Division that would have a chance in the West.
- The other six will go winless against the West. Book it!
- Vanderbilt will be last. But I'd prefer to school there than any of the other SEC schools.
- Spots 2-6 may be a five way tie at 3-5, but we'll say: UK, Mizzou, USC, FLA, and UT.

So to recap: The College Football Playoff should be TCU, Ohio St, Stanford, and 'Bama.
The Power Five Bottom Five (we're splitting it up this year!) may start with Vandy, Kansas, Colorado, Purdue, and Wake Forest. The Group of Five conferences are next.

"Big 12 expansion is not just a possibility..."

Not that it's going to happen just yet, but here's an article from a visit with OU president David Boren, laying out the timetable (in the next ten years) for the expansion of the Big 12 back to (at least) 12 - expansion which "is not just a possibility, but an inevitability" for the long-term survival of the league.

Is it too early to talk Top 30 in college football?

Yes. Yes it is.

However, Sports Illustrated doesn't think so, and they've put out their "post-spring camp Top 25" plus five more, and it's an interesting list to peruse...

1. Ohio State                                       11. Stanford                                           21. Georgia Tech
2. Baylor                                              12. Ole Miss                                          22. Oklahoma
3. Auburn                                            13. Arizona                                            23. BYU
4. Alabama                                          14. USC                                                  24. LSU
5. Michigan St                                    15. Boise State                                      25. Oklahoma St
6. TCU                                                  16. Clemson                                          26. Arkansas
7. Notre Dame                                    17. Missouri                                          27. Utah
8. UCLA                                               18. Georgia                                           28. Mississippi St
9. Florida St                                        19. Arizona St                                       29. Texas
10. Oregon                                           20. Wisconsin                                      30. Michigan

 I find this list absolutely fascinating to contemplate, which is why I post it. At Following Football, we do NOT rank football teams until somewhen in mid-October at the earliest. What we do do is group teams into what we call "tiers"; eventually there'll be about twenty tiers, A through T or so, even when they're ranked (that's also how we project game outcomes) but at the very beginning of the season? We'll divide them up into two, three, four tiers...then six or seven...then maybe eight or ten..until we have enough information to rank them all, #1-127. (UAB football, rest in peace.)

But about THIS list? Look at these crunchy tidbits!
> Auburn 3 and Alabama 4? Delicious!
> OSU deserves #1, but MSU isn't very far behind at #5...
> Baylor at 2 and TCU way back at 6? But TCU's the one bringing their QB back!
> How about this one? Everett Golson goes to perennial playoff contender Florida St, #9... but the team he left is #7!
> Look at the Pac-12! UCLA #8, Oregon #10, Stanford #11, Arizona #13, USC #14, and Arizona State at #19! (Even Utah sneaking in at 27!) THAT will be a packed conference!
> The "Group of Five" better figure out a way to defeat Boise State! They start the season ranked this year...even a loss or two may not knock them out of the top non-Power spot! (Only BYU sits on the list, at #23, to challenge.)
> Oklahoma 22 and Okee State 25? Fun!
> Arkansas 26 and Texas 29? (Or OU/UT? Or...)
> And look who they've got sneaking in at #30! High hopes, indeed, Mr. Harbaugh!