College football rankings following Week 10 - FBS

Here are the updated Following Football ACNC tiers and rankings for the FBS teams following the games of November 3-7...Alabama takes over the #1 spot, despite their early season loss to Mississippi State - and if that's a problem for you, ask yourself what the betting odds would look like were they to play any of the undefeated teams on a neutral field! (They were 6 1/2 point favorites against #1 LSU Saturday - and justified it in spades!). In fact, three of our four playoff teams have a loss, but more important is how you're playing NOW. Big movers include OU, moving up from #9; Stanford (#11 to #5), North Carolina (from #28 to #21); falling somewhat were LSU (just to #7) and TCU (to #13).

Notice that we've now ranked ALL 128 teams, all the way down to our Bottom Eight, with Eastern Michigan at the very bottom, losing to almost-equally pathetic Miami of Ohio.

FF tier	Team	Conf	CfRec		OvRec
A1	Alabama	secW	5	1	8	1
A2	Clemson	accA	6	0	9	0
A3	Notre Dame	ind			8	1
A4	Oklahoma	b12	5	1	8	1
B5	Stanford	pacN	7	0	8	1
B6	Ohio St	b10e	5	0	9	0
B7	LSU	secW	4	1	7	1
B8	Oklahoma St	b12	6	0	9	0
B9	Baylor	b12	5	0	8	0
C10	Mississippi St	secW	3	2	7	2
C11	Iowa	b10w	5	0	9	0
C12	Florida	secE	6	1	8	1
C13	TCU	b12	5	1	8	1
C14	Utah	pacS	5	1	8	1
C15	Michigan	b10e	4	1	7	2
D16	Michigan St	b10e	4	1	8	1
D17	UCLA	pacS	4	2	7	2
D18	Ole Miss	secW	4	2	7	3
D19	Temple	aacE	5	0	8	1
D20	Georgia	secE	4	3	6	3
E21	North Carolina	accC	5	0	8	1
E22	Houston	aacW	5	0	9	0
E23	Florida St	accA	5	2	7	2
E24	Auburn	secW	2	4	5	4
E25	Texas A&M	secW	3	3	6	3
E26	Navy	aacW	5	0	7	1
E27	Wisconsin	b10w	5	1	8	2
F28	Memphis	aacW	4	1	8	1
F29	USC	pacS	4	2	6	3
F30	Toledo	macW	4	1	7	1
F31	BYU	ind			7	2
G32	North Carolina St	accA	2	3	6	3
G33	Arkansas	secW	3	2	5	4
G34	Oregon	pacN	4	2	6	3
G35	Boise St	mwM	4	1	7	2
G36	Northwestern	b10w	3	2	7	2
G37	Tennessee	secE	3	3	5	4
G38	Northern Illinois	macW	4	1	6	3
G39	Washington	pacN	2	4	4	5
G40	Virginia Tech	accC	2	3	4	5
G41	Western Kentucky	cusaE	6	0	8	2
G42	Bowling Green	macE	5	0	7	2
G43	Duke	accC	3	2	6	3
H44	Pitt	accC	4	1	6	3
H45	Louisville	accA	4	2	5	4
H46	West Virginia	b12	1	4	4	4
H47	Louisiana Tech	cusaW	5	1	7	3
H48	California	pacN	2	4	5	4
H49	Appalachian St	sun	4	1	7	2
H50	Miami-FL	accC	3	2	6	3
I51	Washington St	pacN	4	2	6	3
I52	Georgia Tech	accC	1	5	3	6
I53	Minnesota	b10w	1	4	4	5
I54	Cincinnati	aacE	2	3	5	4
I55	Penn St	b10e	4	2	7	3
I56	Vanderbilt	secE	1	4	3	6
I57	Kansas St	b12	0	5	3	5
I58	Arizona St	pacS	2	4	4	5
I59	Missouri	secE	1	5	4	5
J60	Kentucky	secE	2	5	4	5
J61	Texas	b12	3	3	4	5
J62	Western Michigan	macW	5	0	5	3
J63	Texas Tech	b12	2	5	5	5
J64	Arizona	pacS	2	5	5	5
J65	San Diego St	mwW	5	0	6	3
J66	South Carolina	secE	1	6	3	6
J67	Nebraska	b10w	2	4	4	6
K68	Arkansas St	sun	5	0	6	3
K69	Illinois	b10w	2	3	5	4
K70	Indiana	b10e	0	5	4	5
K71	Central Michigan	macW	4	1	5	4
K72	Air Force	mwM	4	1	6	3
K73	South Florida	aacE	3	2	5	4
K74	Boston College	accA	0	7	3	7
L75	East Carolina	aacE	2	4	4	6
L76	Georgia Southern	sun	4	1	6	2
L77	Iowa St	b12	2	4	3	6
L78	Marshall	cusaE	5	1	8	2
L79	Southern Miss	cusaW	4	1	6	3
L80	U Conn	aacE	3	3	5	5
L81	Utah St	mwM	4	2	5	4
M82	Middle Tennessee	cusaE	3	2	4	5
M83	Virginia	accC	2	3	3	6
N84	Purdue	b10w	1	4	2	7
N85	Akron	macE	2	3	4	5
N86	Syracuse	accA	1	4	3	6
N87	Wake Forest	accA	1	5	3	6
N88	Tulsa	aacW	2	3	5	4
N89	Colorado	pacS	1	5	4	6
O90	Maryland	b10e	0	5	2	7
O91	Rutgers	b10e	1	5	3	6
O92	Ohio	macE	2	3	5	4
O93	Nevada	mwW	3	2	5	4
O94	Buffalo	macE	3	2	5	4
O95	Colorado St	mwM	2	3	4	5
P96	UNLV	mwW	2	3	3	6
P97	San Jose St	mwW	3	2	4	5
P98	Oregon St	pacN	0	6	2	7
Q099	New Mexico	mwM	3	2	5	4
Q100	Troy	sun	2	3	3	6
Q101	UL-Lafayette	sun	3	1	4	4
Q102	Rice	cusaW	2	3	4	5
Q103	Florida International	cusaE	3	3	5	5
Q104	SMU	aacW	0	5	1	8
R105	Tulane	aacW	1	5	2	7
R106	Ball St	macW	2	4	3	7
R107	Florida Atlantic	cusaE	2	4	2	7
S108	Idaho	sun	2	4	3	6
S109	Kent St	macE	2	3	3	6
S110	Hawai'i	mwW	0	6	2	8
S111	New Mexico St	sun	2	3	2	7
T112	Texas St	sun	1	3	2	6
T113	South Alabama	sun	2	2	4	4
T114	Old Dominion	cusaE	2	3	4	5
T115	Fresno St	mwW	1	5	2	7
T116	U Massachusetts	macE	0	5	1	8
U117	Kansas	b12	0	6	0	9
U118	Wyoming	mwM	1	5	1	9
U119	Army	ind			2	7
U120	UTEP	cusaW	2	3	4	5
U121	Miami-OH	macE	1	5	2	8
U122	North Texas	cusaW	1	5	1	8
U123	UT-San Antonio	cusaW	1	4	1	8
V124	Georgia St	sun	1	3	2	6
V125	UNC-Charlotte	cusaE	0	6	2	7
V126	Central Florida	aacE	0	6	0	10
V127	UL-Monroe	sun	0	5	1	8
W128	Eastern Michigan	macW	0	6	1	9

UPS and DOWNS for Tuesday, the first week of November!

As the college football playoff committee puts out its rankings tonight, and Following Football has done the same over the last two days for all 285 pro and college teams we cover, it's a great time to look at which teams have had a surprisingly UP season, and which ones have been startlingly DOWN...

WHO'S UP? Well, what about the Cincinnati Bengals and the Carolina Panthers? Everyone who saw both of them at 7-0 starting November raise your hands. OK, we've identified the liars in the room...

WHO'S DOWN? It's not hard to find struggling teams in the NFL, but a couple we saw in the playoffs last year are the Baltimore Ravens and the Detroit Lions. Tough schedule, sure - close games, yes - but somewhere in there, you've got to stand up and win a couple of those games.

WHO'S UP? Three "usual suspects": the Green Bay Packers, the Denver Broncos, and the New England Patriots. Remarkable to watch Peyton be Peyton again, but Rodgers and Brady have left no doubt that they're still at the top of their games. And all three have defenses to get them the ball.

WHO'S DOWN? Again, who do you expect? The Tennessee Titans, of course, who just fired another coach...the Cleveland Browns, who continue to put up with Manziel for some odd reason...the Chicago Bears weren't expected to do much, and still haven't lived up to expectations... and even with their shiny new QB, the Tampa Bay Bucs are barely better than they were at this point last year.

WHO'S UP? There are signs of life in Oakland...in Minnesota...in Atlanta...in St. Louis. Parity is always the stated goal of the NFL admin, but what you really want is the feeling as a fan base that any year could be THE YEAR!

WHO'S DOWN? When you've got a fan base like the Sasktachewan RoughRiders do, arguably the best in the Canadian Football League, and you were expecting to be contending for the Grey Cup, when you were right on the heels of the eventual champion Calgary Stampeders all season...and you go a miserable two and fifteen heading into the final week of the season...yeah, the green is blue this year. The Riders were actually eliminated from playoff contention six weeks ago...in a league where 2/3 of the teams make the playoffs. THAT'S impressive in its badness.

WHO'S UP? When you went 2-16 last year in your first campaign as an expansion franchise, you can be forgiven if a successful second season in your mind was, say, six wins. Looking at the two expansion clubs in the AFL (Gold Coast and GWS), they went through about that - two bad years, then two mediocre years. But instead, the Ottawa RedBlacks are one win away from an Eastern Division championship in their second year - already guaranteed a winning record at 11-6, all they need to do is win OR not lose by more than five points at home on Saturday to the Hamilton Ti-Cats...not the first choice of opponents in this situation, especially since it's the Ti-Cats who will earn the title if you fail. But just to have this opportunity in your sophomore campaign! CONGRATULATIONS, OTTAWA!

WHO'S DOWN? My attention span for Canadian football once the American season hit full steam in late September. It was frustrating, because I knew I didn't have the time or energy to stay abreast of every single thing in the NFL, NCAA, and the CFL - and as the footy season was reaching its climax down under, it was the mid-to-late weeks of the Canadian season that got the short shrift. To our readers, I apologize. But of course, all we can do is our best, and we'll continue to do that for you.

WHO'S UP? At the moment, we have our top four "theoretically playoff bound" FBS teams (in the humble opinion of Following Football ACNC!) - LSU, Clemson, Alabama, Notre Dame. To most observers we've heard, the first two names are almost indisputable at the moment (things change quickly in college football, though!), and the other two could be replaced by any of close to a dozen teams: TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Michigan St, Ohio St, Florida, Stanford, Iowa, Utah, even Memphis or Toledo. (Probably not Idaho, though.)

WHO'S DOWN? Which teams thought they'd be in the mix at this point and aren't? There are some obvious candidates: Georgia, Auburn, Oregon, USC, Tennessee, There are some others whose fan bases might have thought it feasible - but that's another story.

WHO'S UP? There are some remarkable positive stories this fall of teams who weren't expected to fare as successfully as they have, as there are every year. That doesn't make them any less worth applauding: Florida (new head coach Jim McElwain has them sitting at #7 on the Following Football ranking at the moment; finished the 2014 season at #34), Michigan (Harbaugh took a team who finished at #67 last year, bottom half of the FBS, and has them at #14 right now), Houston (up from #69 last year to an undefeated 8-0 at #21 and looking at a possible New Year's bowl); and Temple (similar story arc, moving from #79 to current #22, having just taken Notre Dame to the brink). There are lower eschelon stories as well: Southern Miss moved from tier S up to its current tier L; Tulsa has bounded from tier T up to tier N this year. Vanderbilt from tier R up to its present place in tier I; and Northwestern, who beat Stanford to start the year, Duke for its only legitimate defeat (ahem, Miami), and moved from last year's tier M and #78 all the way into tier G and position #35.

WHO'S DOWN? And then... there are the sob stories. The ones you tsk tsk about behind their backs. The ones who (in your opinion) deserve a bad year every once in a while... How about Texas? Charlie Strong's first year looked promising! But with a blowout, embarrassing loss to Notre Dame (well, ok), embarrassing near-misses against California and OK State (hmmm...), a bad loss at TCU (eww...), a surprise win in the Shootout (hey! Maybe...) followed by definitive losses to two foes they used to pick their teeth with the last two weeks: K-State and Iowa State. Read that again. Iowa State! The Texas offense was not only shut out, they never got past the ISU 40 yard line.

But that pales next to Nebraska, who fired a coach who gave them nine wins a season every year - AGAIN. A decade ago, they fired Frank Solich because he wasn't Tom Osborne. The man they hired to replace him...was no Frank Solich. Disaster - they didn't even make .500! In desperation, they brought in NU guy Bo Pelini - colorful, successful, nine wins a season, just like Solich (who went on to be one of the most successful coaches in MAC history). Seven years of Pelini NOT being Tom Osborne was enough for the faithful, and they brought in Mike Riley, a very nice man with a mediocre program at Oregon State, who has produced a mediocre program at Nebraska, finding exciting ways to lose close games to good teams and sometimes to bad teams like Purdue last weekend.

South Carolina was doing badly enough that the Head Ball Coach simply walked away into retirement. Central Florida saw the same story with Head Resume Inflator in the lead walking role. Whether the story ends the same way at Virginia Tech in Frank Beamer's last year remains to be seen. It looks like Minnesota's going to be hanged if they allow Jerry Kill's epilepsy-induced retirement to end the same way, thankfully.

WHAT'S NEXT? Who knows? And isn't that the beauty of football? It's the best reality show there is - all the drama, the competition, the tension of the staged TV events, except it's actual reality! There IS no script! Maybe Texas turns it around! Maybe Florida nosedives the rest of the way! Maybe Jim Harbaugh takes Michigan to four miraculous victories against Ohio State, Iowa in the B1G title game, the semifinal and the NC game, and the Blue rule the nation! Or...just as unlikely...maybe they lose every game from here on out, including a 59-0 shutout by the Buckeyes. That's the point - we can't know ahead of time! So sit back, turn on the TV, go to a game if you're close enough, and enjoy the ride!

Our first rankings, ahead of the CFP committee's Tuesday:

It's time to start breaking down our tiers into rankings, as the NCAA College Football Playoff committee prepares for ITS first rankings on Tuesday evening. Here are our top 35 FBS teams after Week 9 of the 2015 season:

Tier A) 1. LSU (7-0). 2. Clemson (8-0). 3. Alabama (7-1). 4. Notre Dame (7-1). 5. TCU (7-0).
Tier B) 6. Michigan St (8-0). 7. Florida (7-1). 8. Ohio St (8-0).  9. Oklahoma (7-1). 10. Baylor (8-0). 11. Stanford (7-1).
Tier C) 12. Iowa (8-0). 13. Ole Miss (7-2). 14. Michigan (6-2). 15. Texas A&M (6-2). 16. Utah (7-1). 17. Mississippi St (6-2).
Tier D) 18. Oklahoma St (8-0). 19. Memphis (8-0). 20. Toledo (7-0). 21. Houston (8-0). 22. Temple (7-1).
Tier E) 23. UCLA (6-2). 24. Florida St (7-1). 25. BYU (6-2). 26. Wisconsin (7-2). 27. Georgia (5-3).
Tier F) 28. North Carolina (7-1). 29. USC (5-3). 30. Appalachian St (7-1). 31. Duke (6-2).
Tier G) 32. Tennessee (4-4). 33. Navy (6-1). 34. Boise St (7-2). 35. Northwestern (7-2). 36. California (5-3). 37. Auburn (4-4).

Tier H) Pitt, Miami-Fl, West Virginia, Oregon, Arizona St, Arkansas, Louisiana Tech, Bowling Green.
Tier I) Georgia Tech, Minnesota, Kansas St, Kentucky, Missouri, Northern Illinois.
Tier J) Texas Tech, Washington St, Arizona, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Cincinnati, Marshall, San Diego St.
Tier K) Boston College, Indiana, Iowa St, Texas, East Carolina, Central Michigan, Western Michigan, Air Force, Utah St.
Tier L) Purdue, Nebraska, South Florida, U Conn, Southern Miss, Georgia Southern.
Tier M) Syracuse, Virginia, Illinois, Arkansas St.
Tier N) Wake Forest, Colorado, Tulsa, Ohio, Akron.
Tier O) Rutgers, Maryland, Oregon St, Middle Tennessee, Buffalo.
Tier P) Rice, Colorado St, Nevada, UNLV.
Tier Q) SMU, FIU, Ball St, San Jose St, UL-Lafayette.
Tier R) Tulane, FAU, New Mexico, Texas St, Troy.
Tier S) Kent St, Idaho, Hawaii, Fresno St.

And the Bottom Sixteen...

Tier T) 113. U Mass (1-7). 114. Kansas (0-8). 115. South Alabama (3-4). 116. Old Dominion (3-5). 117. Wyoming (1-8).
Tier U) 118. Army-West Point (2-6). 119. UT-San Antonio (1-7). 120. New Mexico St (1-7). 121. North Texas (1-7). 122. UL-Monroe (1-7).
Tier V) 123. Miami-OH (1-8). 124. UTEP (3-5). 125. Georgia St (2-5). 126. Charlotte (2-6). 127. Eastern Michigan (1-8). 128. Central Florida (0-9).

As for Top Eights, the Power Five conferences hold the first eight spots above, while the Top Eight for the Group Of Five conferences (pivotal for bowl placement) are as follows right now:
1. Memphis (#19) - 2. Toledo (#20) - 3. Houston (#21) - 4. Temple (#22) - 5. BYU (#25) - 6. Appalachian St (#30) - 7. Navy (#33) - 8. Boise St (#34). 

And the Bottom Fives? Well, all of Tier V comes from the Group Of Five conferences, so there's your bottom five there (UTEP through UCF). As for the Power Five conferences, here are their Bottom Five:
1. Kansas (tier T) - 2. Maryland (tier O) - 3. Rutgers (tier O) - 4. Oregon St (tier O) - 5. Wake Forest (tier N). 

Rankings for the FCS teams and the NFL will come out in the next 24 hours or so...

Weekend Wesults!

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times... There were ups, and there were downs... highs, and lows... successes, and failures...

If the West Coast Eagles could have kicked against the broad side of a flipp'n barn, we would probably have nailed our AFL Grand Final prediction. As it was, instead of Hawthorn winning their third straight final 110-88, the score was 107-61...with star Eagles like Jack Darling and Josh Kennedy kicking like the ball was made out of meat or something. It was decided by halftime; Rex Hunt's famous fat lady sang in the second quarter, just like last year. Our final results for the 2015 season: 150-56 overall, and against the spread we went 123-83. We fell to second in our division of the tipping contest when the person behind us also thought the Eagles would kick terribly, it seems, and passed us on margin only. Oh well!

In the CFL, we got three out of four winners right (Calgary managed to win in Hamilton, 35-33), and went 2-2 against the spread, so our season is now at 35-25 overall and 32-26-2 ATS.

In the NFL, we split our predictions last week between the games we felt good predicting and the ones we felt uncertain about. Turns out...there's not much difference.

With our "sure thing" games? 6-2 against the spread, 5-3 overall.
With our "flip a coin" games? 5-2 both against the spread AND overall.
Total: 11-4 ATS, 10-5 straight up. One more winner ATS, one more loser straight up.

Huh....

Overall now, we're 40-22 straight up and 41-21 ATS.  

Finally, with the college games, there were some holes-in-one on our part...

"Take Clemson to win" over favored Notre Dame? 24-22, Tigers. 
"TCU wins by a lot more than 15"? TCU 50, Texas 7.
"Can't believe A&M's not favored at home!" Aggies win over MSU, 30-17. 
"BGSU wins by LESS than nine" - Bowling Green 28-22 over Buffalo.
And Western Illinois over Southern Illinois by 1? Western 37, Southern 36! 

And then.... well, some were atrocious: "Tech by double digits!" (UNC 38, GT 31)..."Don't trust the Hawkeyes: UW to win and cover!" (Iowa 10, Wisconsin 6)..."We have (UCLA) higher on every metric!" (Arizona St 38, Bruins 23)..."We like NIU to win by MUCH MORE than (two) - Central Michigan 29, Northern Illinois 19...and the worst sin of all, not having faith in a five-time defending champion to rise up as an underdog (and we're NOT talking about Alabama's shellacking of Georgia, although we could - we missed that one too!) - North Dakota St rose up as a three-point underdog at South Dakota St, their archrival, and whipped them 28-7.

So, our overall results this week: In the FBS games, we went a respectable 42-19 straight up, but a terrible 24-33 against the spread! With the FCS, we had no Vegas spread to go with (and we need to stop treating the Sagarin numbers like they're from oddsmakers!), so all we can say is that we went a very excellent 44-10 picking our FCS winners (and it would've been better had we not gone 2-4 within our home conference, the Big Sky!). 

Oh, and the Valparaiso/Davidson game we said would be 2-0 Valpo? Try 42-35 Valpo. Turns out it wasn't a lack of offense - it was a lack of defense...

Our overall record as of October 5th... 367-93 picking winners only; 212-188-2 against the spread.  [STILL better than "Twilight"!] That's just under 80% straight up and 53% ATS.

All Ten D1 Conferences Forecast for 2015!

Having completed our examination of the ten conferences in division one-A (five Power Five conferences and five Group of Five conferences), we came up with some suprising predictions, mostly because of when and where certain pairs of rivals happen to play each other. All position ties are broken by head to head results whenever possible. (For example, LSU should defeat Auburn.) We'll follow up with the overall records a bit later, but these are the in-conference records we project for the upcoming season:

SEC West: 1. Alabama (7-1, 11-1), 2. LSU (6-2, 10-2), 3. Auburn (6-2, 10-2), 4. Ole Miss (5-3, 9-3), 5. Texas A&M (4-4, 8-4), 6. Arkansas (2-6, 6-6), 7. Mississippi St (2-6, 6-6).
SEC East: 1. Georgia (6-2, 10-2), 2. Tennessee (6-2, 10-2), 3. Missouri (4-4, 8-4), 4. South Carolina (3-5, 6-6), 5. Kentucky (2-6, 5-7), 6. Florida (1-7, 4-8), 7. Vanderbilt (0-8, 3-9).
(Alabama def. Georgia for championship; CFP bound.)

PAC-12 North: 1. Oregon (8-1, 10-2), 2. Stanford (7-2, even beating UO!, 9-3), 3. California (3-6, 5-7), 4. Washington (2-7, 4-8), 5. Washington St (2-7, 4-8), 6. Oregon St (1-8, 3-9).
PAC-12 South: 1. UCLA (8-1, 11-1), 2. USC (7-2, 10-2), 3. Arizona St (6-3, 8-4), 4. Arizona (5-4, 8-4), 5. Utah (4-5, 6-6), 6. Colorado (0-9, 2-10).
(Oregon defeats UCLA for championship; CFP bound.)

BIG 12: 1. TCU (9-0, 11-1), 2. Baylor (8-1, 11-1), 3. Oklahoma (7-2, 9-3), 4. Texas (6-3, 8-4), 5. Oklahoma St (4-5, 7-5), 6. West Virginia (4-5, 7-5), 7. Kansas St (3-6, 6-6), 8. Texas Tech (2-7, 4-8), 9. Iowa St (1-8, 2-10) 10. Kansas (1-8, 2-10).
(TCU goes to CFP.)

BIG 10 East: 1. Ohio St (8-0, 12-0), 2. Michigan St (7-1, 11-1), 3. Penn St (6-2, 10-2), 4. Michigan (5-3, 9-3), 5. Indiana (2-6, 5-7), 6. Maryland (1-7, 4-8), 7. Rutgers (1-7, 5-7).
BIG 10 West: 1. Wisconsin (7-1, 10-2), 2. Minnesota (6-2, 10-2), 3. Nebraska (5-3, 7-5), 4. Iowa (4-4, 8-4), 5. Northwestern (2-6, 4-8), 6. Illinois (1-7, 4-8), 7. Purdue (0-8, 1-11).
(Ohio St defeats Wisconsin - again; CFP bound.)

ACC Atlantic: 1. Clemson (7-1, 11-1), 2. Florida St (6-2, 10-2), 3. North Carolina St (6-2, 10-2), 4. Louisville (5-3, 8-4), 5. Boston College (2-6, 4-8), 6. Syracuse (1-7, 4-8), 7. Wake Forest (0-8, 2-10).
ACC Coastal: 1. Virginia Tech (7-1, 10-2), 2. Georgia Tech (6-2, 8-4), 3. Duke (5-3, 9-3), 4. Miami-FL (4-4, 7-5), 5. North Carolina (4-4, 8-4), 6. Pitt (2-6, 4-8), 7. Virginia (0-8, 1-11).
(Clemson defeats Virginia Tech, but will be the odd team out of the CFP.)

Independents: Notre Dame (10-2), BYU (7-5), Army-West Point (6-6). 

American East: 1. Central Florida (7-1, 9-3), 2. East Carolina (6-2, 7-5), 3. Cincinnati (5-3, 8-4), 4. Temple (5-3, 7-5), 5. South Florida (2-6, 3-9), 6. U Conn (1-7, 2-10).
American West: 1. Houston (7-1, 10-2), 2. Memphis (6-2, 8-4), 3. Navy (5-3, 8-4), 4. SMU (2-6, 3-9), 5. Tulane (2-6, 4-8), 6. Tulsa (0-8, 2-10).
(Central Florida defeats Houston for championship.)

Mountain West MTN: 1. Boise St (8-0, 12-0), 2. Utah St (7-1, 8-4), 3. Colorado St (6-2, 9-3), 4. Air Force (5-3, 7-5), 5. Wyoming (2-6, 4-8), 6. New Mexico (1-7, 4-8).
Mountain West WST: 1. San Diego St (6-2, 7-5), 2. Nevada (5-3, 7-5). 3. San Jose St (3-5, 4-8), 4. Fresno St (3-5, 4-8), 5. UNLV 1-7, 2-10), 6. Hawai'i (1-7, 3-10).
(Boise St defeats San Diego St, qualifies for New Year's Six Bowls.)

Conf USA East: 1. Marshall (8-0, 12-0), 2. Western Kentucky (7-1, 9-3), 3. Middle Tennessee (5-3, 6-6), 4. Old Dominion (5-3, 8-4), 5. Florida International (3-5, 4-8), 6. Florida Atlantic (1-7, 2-10), 7. UNC-Charlotte (0-8, 1-11).
Conf USA West: 1. Louisiana Tech (7-1, 9-3), 2. Rice (6-2, 7-5), 3. UTEP (5-3, 6-6), 4. Southern Miss (3-5, 4-8), 5. North Texas (1-7, 2-10), 6. UTSA (1-7, 1-11).
(Marshall defeats LaTech, but strength of schedule keeps them from the New Year's Six.)

Mid-American West: 1. Toledo (7-1, 10-2), 2. Northern Illinois (7-1, 10-2), 3. Western Michigan (6-2, 7-5), 4. Ball St (6-2, 8-4), 5. Central Michigan (3-5, 4-8), 6. Eastern Michigan (0-8, 0-12).
Mid-American East: 1. Akron (7-1, 9-3), 2. Bowling Green (6-2, 8-4), 3. U Mass (4-4, 4-8), 4. Ohio (3-5, 5-7), 5. Kent St (3-5, 4-8), 6. Buffalo (1-7, 1-11), 7. Miami-OH (1-7, 1-11).
(Toledo defeats Akron for championship.)

Sun Belt: 1. Appalachian St (8-0, 10-2), 2t. Georgia Southern (7-1, 8-4), 2t. Arkansas St (7-1, 8-4), 4. UL-Lafayette (5-3, 6-6), 5. Texas St (5-3, 7-5), 6, South Alabama (4-4, 5-7), 7. New Mexico St (3-5, 4-8), 8. Troy (2-6, 3-9), 9. UL-Monroe (2-6, 3-9), 10. Idaho (1-7, 2-10), 11. Georgia St (0-8, 1-11).
(GASO and ArkSt do not play each other; the other ties do)

So, a few surprises even for us in our own predictions, once you really dig into the schedules and see who each team plays, and where, and when. I think the stand-out surprise to me was Army going 6-6 this year, but their schedule is paper-thin. Marshall going 12-0 startled me, until I realized their only difficult game will be Western KY, and they'll be SO pumped for revenge that we're betting they win that one, too. Toledo and Akron are NOT the two best teams in the MAC, but they're the two with the fewest losses looming on their schedules! (It all depends on your crossover opponents!). Minnesota going 10-2 may shock some, but their three hardest (non-OSU) games are at home. In defense of Oregon going over Clemson to the playoffs, even w/ two losses, it looks as though the four lions at the top of the Pac-12 (OU, Stanford, UCLA, USC) will loom as so dominant that it becomes inevitable that ONE of them (by definition, the champ) goes to the playoff, and after USC and UCLA decimate each other one Saturday, Oregon should pick off the survivor the next weekend. I honestly looked for scenarios where Alabama, Ohio St, and TCU didn't go to the playoffs, or where Boise didn't return to New Year's Day...but that's not likely.

SMU hires Clemson assistant Rick Hart to coach, Buffalo Lance Leipold

SMU has a new head coach - and he can't have a worse record than the interim folks did this year... Rick Hart has a Texas high school background, and college coaching experience under a couple of good head men - we don't know the guy, but that's exactly the background we'd be looking for in a head coach there! Good luck, Mr. Hart!

Similarly, Buffalo has gone into a great program to get their new head man - Lance Leipold has been conquering mountains at Division III for many years, going an unreal 106 and 6 in his tenure at Wisconsin-Whitewater, creating the greatest intersectional college rivalry in the country with Mount Union over the last eight years (when they were the ONLY TEAMS to appear in the national championship game. Got that?).

Looking at the early games this week...

It's already Week 10, and with our usual November "MAC-tion" upon us during the week, we need to touch on the weeknight games now!

Tuesday: Starting this very moment are two Mid-American games, Bowling Green at Akron (unlike Vegas, we like the Falcons!) and Toledo at Kent St (hard to imagine Kent St winning tonight).

Wednesday: Two more MAC games, this time Buffalo at Ohio (the Bobcats get the three point home field advantage, which we think is about right) and Northern Illinois traveling to Ball St (the Huskies really should be favored by ten or more, not three. Take NIU).

Thursday: Two major games - one in the ACC, Clemson at Wake Forest (favored by 23, and we agree), and one on the NFL Network, with the Cleveland Browns visiting the Cincinnati Bengals (despite the balance in the division, we think Cincy's TD favorite's spread is at least right).

Friday: Four games to consider - two below the 49th parallel (Memphis at Temple, favored by a TD, and Utah St at Wyoming, also favored by a TD), and two above (Ottawa at Toronto, which should be a great fight for the REDBLACKS but a hard fought win by Toronto; and Calgary at BC, which will depend entirely on who the Stampeders choose to rest).

Week 8 CFB tiers continued - the Upper Floors!

We've reached the upper half (slightly above, actually) of the FBS tiering: Tiers F through J, teams #31-61 if we were actually "ranking" (which we're not, at least in October!).

Tier J:
Tier J contains a bunch of good teams whose records don't necessarily show it, including Tennessee, just 3-5 because of being 0-4 in the SEC, and Syracuse, at 3-5 and 1-3 in the ACC. Also present in the J are Houston and Memphis (both 4-3, 2-1 AAC), Northwestern (3-4, 2-2 Big 10), and Virginia Tech (4-4, 1-3 ACC).

Tier I:
The ninth tier from the top is packed with teams from the ACC, a conference loaded with middle-of-the-road teams: North Carolina, Pitt, Virginia (all 4-4, 2-2), and Boston College (5-3, 2-2). Also present for their I-check are Air Force (5-2, 2-2 MW), Northern Illinois (6-2, MAC), and Washington (5-3, 1-3 Pac12).

Tier H:
Arkansas (4-4, 0-4 SEC), California (4-4, 2-4 Pac12), Florida (3-3, 2-3 SEC), Iowa (5-2, 2-1 Big 10), Oregon St (4-3, 2-2 Pac12), and Utah St (5-3, 2-1 MW).

Tier G:
Three Big Ten teams populate the seventh tier - Maryland (5-3, 2-2), Penn St (4-3, 1-3), and Rutgers (5-3, 1-3). Also here are Boise St (having come back to 6-2, 3-1 in the MW), Miami-FL (5-3, 2-2 ACC), and Stanford (5-3, 2-2 Pac12).

Tier F:
Finally for the Uppermost Level of our CFB building, we find two more ACC schools in Clemson (6-2, 5-1) and Louisville (6-2, 4-2); two more SEC schools fighting disappointment mid-season in South Carolina (5-3, 3-3) and Texas A&M (5-3, 2-3); the Big Ten dark horse Minnesota (6-2, 3-1), and the Oklahoma State Cowboys at 5-3, 3-2 in the Big Twelve.

College Tiers after Week 6! (Part A)

Another truly exciting weekend of college football, culminating in the fourth straight victory for the state of Mississippi over a top-notch SEC team! The two Egg Bowl participants are a combined 12-0, and sit in the drivers' seats in the hardest division in football, the SEC West!

Leveling up this week from last.... Oregon and TCU (despite their first loss, they proved they belong in the big leagues) to Tier 1; LSU up to Tier 2; Clemson, USC, and Duke up to Tier 3; Kentucky and Utah up to Tier 4; Washington and Minnesota up to Tier 5; Boston College, Iowa, Utah St and Miami of Fla all moved up to Tier 6; and Bowling Green and Tennessee move into Tier 7.

Those who fell at least one tier include Auburn, Arizona, Georgia Tech, Texas A&M, Missouri, Louisville, Penn St, Oregon St, BYU, Air Force, Wisconsin and California.

The full Tier listing comes up in the next post in a few minutes...