UPS and DOWNS for the First Week of September

UPS to being in the First Week of September! Football in America is BACK! Sure, there's a taste of it with pre-season NFL games, and besides the classic Montana/ND State opener last Saturday, there have been a handful of lower division games as well to whet our referee's whistle. But the season starts for real in TWO days, with the Thursday night games kicking off the FBS weekend's slate for "Week Zero".

DOWNS on the death of the "Pigskin Classic" or "Kickoff Classic" type games that used to be set aside on this Week Zero without any competition from other, more trivial contests that aren't much of a contest (when an SEC team plays a Division 1-AA team, that's not usually a contest - it's Christians being slaughtered by the lions - or, more likely, Tigers). Granted, those games are still there - Alabama/Wisconsin, VaTech/Ohio State, Louisville/Auburn, and so forth. But it feels much more like just an ordinary week of football, not something "SPECIAL" as it used to feel.

DOWNS to the NFL waiting ANOTHER week before they start their regular season. I don't think it has anything to do with the NCAA schedule - frankly, the NFL is so big that it doesn't care much about the actions of anything below it. But here's a novel idea: Start the season THIS week, when we're primed and ready for it! Then, the season ends in the last week of December instead of the beginning of January, and once the New Year's Six games are done in the FBS, we're on to the playoffs instead of yet another home-and-away round that's mostly unnecessary. The Super Bowl comes back to the last weekend in January, and everyone's happy.

UPS to the POSITIVE ROLE MODELS in all levels of football these days! The two top players in the NFL, without question, are the reigning MVP Aaron Rogers of the Packers and reigning Defensive POY J.J. Watt of the Texans. Both men are not only possessors of clean rap sheets, they're the absolute best human beings you can imagine representing your organization. Rodgers, always an intelligent interview, is a past winner of the Walter Payton Man of the Year award for his charity work. Watt is legendary for his ability to connect with civilians: even last Saturday, he was out two hours before the Texans/Saints game in the Superdome, throwing the football back and forth with any fan who wanted to in the stands (even the upper deck!). Nothing will ever top his "marriage" to the crying six-year old whose video about wanting to marry him went viral a couple of years ago, but there always seems to be something. They're certainly not alone in being positive role models in the NFL: Larry Fitzgerald went well out of his way in his interview Sunday on Fox to make his younger teammates the focus of the discussion, for example. Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Charles Woodson, and so many other players are remarkable for having achieved such success, fame, and wealth at a young age, but not have it spoil them as people. The AFL has a similar group of leaders in its top players - Gary Ablett Jr., Scott Pendelbury, Adam Goodes, and a host of other players set examples that are hard to quibble with. Charles Barkley famously said "I am not a role model"...but sorry, Charlie: you were. Not your choice. Not once you became great at your sport.

Ah, yes, Player Rankings! Always entertaining! Occasionally informative!

Rarely productive! Always worthwhile for their true purpose, which is to stir up discussion and debate. 

This is Bill Barnwell's top 100 NFL players for 2015, and within it you'll find embedded the NFL players' own list, as well as Barnwell's assessment of said list (most of which I agree with).

(Strictly speaking, the above link is the layout for the exercise, as well as players #100-61... here is the link for the second part of the article, posted on Friday, including his list of players #60-1.)

I'll be honest here, it's hard to argue with the top six of his list, for the reasons he lists (and implies)....and at the risk of violating "SPOILER ALERT" agreements, the nicest thing to me about the first three - Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay), Andrew Luck (Indianapolis), JJ Watt (Houston) - is that they are three of the most genuine, nicest men you would ever meet in any line of work, let alone professional football.

DO YOU AGREE WITH EITHER HIM OR THE NFLPA? (What are the odds? Infinitesimal, I'd think!) Comment with the most egregious errors...

The 4th annual NFL Honors were tonight...

...and it was interesting to watch the NFL try to do Hollywood... 

Seth Meyers did a great job...to the Boston native's credit, he spent a good chunk of the monologue skewering BallGhazi, or DeFlateGate, or whatever else we call it...

JJ Watt is apparently either a demi-god or was being softened up not to get the MVP award...although he did become the first unanimous Defensive Player of the Year...

Thomas Davis made me cry just a little bit when he won the Walter Payton Man of the Year award...

Aaron Rodgers had one of the better lines of the night telling Peyton Manning that his quad looked pretty good and he should come back already...Rodgers won the MVP but came up second best to Davis for the Man of the Year...

None of the Patriots or Seahawks were there, or allowed to be there (it seemed). Rob Gronkowski won Comeback of the Year, and his four brothers and mother accepted for him. Two of the brothers took credit for his toughness by beating upon him throughout his childhood...

Odelle Beckham Jr. got lots of credit for The Catch... but Larry Fitzgerald earned the first ever Art Rooney Sportsman of the Year, deservedly so...

Arizona Cardinals' coach Bruce Arians earned his second Coach of the Year honors, and DeMarco Murray of the Cowboys was Offensive Player of the Year.

Finally, to see Jim Kelly get a standing O from the NFL fraternity before introducing the eight member Hall of Fame class of 2015 was touching. Then, the most touched member of an obviously elated crowd of electees was veteran Vikings' lineman Mick Tinglehoff, who was selected by the veterans' committee and was almost overwhelmed by the moment. Also elected were 'contributors' Ron Wolf and Bill Polian, along with five other players: Jerome Bettis, Will Shields, Tim Brown, Charles Haley, and the late great Junior Seau, a recent suicide from concussion trauma, who was represented by his two sons (who are the spitting image of him!). 

JJ Watt - the legend grows...

Completely irrelevant to everything, but part of the growing legend of Houston Texans defensive end/tackle/tight end/stud superstar J J Watt... here he is on Jimmy Kimmel, demonstrating his absurd vertical leap.

The first ever FOLLOWING FOOTBALL NFL All-League TEAM!

We're going to take a shot at this All-League team business (since everyone else does!). Unlike MOST such endeavors, we're trying something that sounds simply ridiculous on the surface...we refused to name our team until the regular season ENDS! None of this "2 games to go" stuff for us! It's All-League for the 2014 SEASON...and the season didn't end until Sunday! (We have similar semantic complaints for not calling it the "first annual"...it's not annual until we do it again next year!)  Please understand, this goes against our anti-fantasy football mindset...but there are indeed certain players that stand out above their peers.

Okay, so, here goes!

Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay.
   As much as we love Peyton around here, Rodgers has yet to throw an interception in Wisconsin this year! Only one of his interceptions (out of a whopping five) was arguably his fault: four of the five hit his receiver's hands first. He has done more with less for years, this year no exception.
Running Backs: DeMarco Murray, Dallas / Marshawn Lynch, Seattle
  It's the year of the DeMarco - we would've liked to see him hit 2000, but in a pass-happy league, 1900? is a pretty amazing feat! As for Marshawn, anyone who won't put up with the insufferability of the press is cool with us! After the back breaking run against Arizona in week 16, it was hard to give it to anyone else.
Wideouts: Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh / Dez Bryant, Dallas
   Brown led all receivers by something like twenty catches in 2014, but even so he never looked as dominant as Bryant looked on occasion, especially against the poor overmatched Colts secondary a couple weeks back. (Although his last game against the Bengals looked DANGED impressive...)
Tight End: Rob Gronkowski, New England
   Hard not to give it to one of the old guard; Antonio Gates, for example, or Vernon Davis.. But Gronk has been too critical to the Patriots' success this year. He leads all tight ends in yardage by a wide margin, and is tied for total catches with 82. 
Offensive Line: Dallas Cowboys
   This should absolutely be a team unit award. Following Football recognizes the unit which works together the most effectively, and no unit was as good as the Cowboys, especially during the first half of the year.

Defensive Tackle: Ndamukong Suh, Detroit / Terrence Knighton, Denver
   We know it would be easier to pick more DEs and call them all front liners, but the DT is just as crucial to the success of the defense, if not as spectacular. Suh really is that spectacular, though, when he's behaving himself  (unlike Sunday) and not costing his team penalty yards or himself fine money. Knighton has clogged up the middle for the deceptively good Bronco D all year.
Defensive End: JJ Watt, Houston / Calais Campbell, Arizona
   Watt has been insanely spectacular this year. He led the league in just about every category - sack yardage, QB hits, blah, blah, blah... - besides catching passes, running back both a fumble and an interception, selling popcorn at halftime, and God only knows what else. Bill Simmons once said that the only thing that could've made his season any better is throwing a touchdown pass...and that's coming. The Arizona Cardinals have had one of the great defenses all season, and Campbell is one of the primary reasons why. Our other choices here, Mario Williams in Buffalo and Cameron Wake in Miami, would have been just as qualified: Campbell's recognition is as much for Arizona's defense as a team as for his own talents on the field.
Linebackers: Luke Kuechly, Carolina / Justin Houston, Kansas City / DeAndre Levy, Detroit
  Kuechly never heard the rule about not supposing to be as big a numbers guy in the pros as in the ACC. Houston merely set the Chiefs record for sacks, leading the league with 22 (beating even Watt this year, and the second highest all time!). Levy played solidly all season, and particularly towards the end of the year.
Safeties: Earl Thomas, Seattle / Patrick Peterson, Arizona
   All right, technically Peterson is probably a cornerback, but what we love about his game is his ability to hit as well as cover, not to mention his kick return talents, and so we're getting him on our field one way or another. Thomas, however, is a pure safety who's as good as they get, year after year.
Cornerbacks: Richard Sherman, Seattle / Darrell Revis, New England
   Rarely have two such defenders existed the same season, where no sane QB throws to their side regardless of which favorite receiver of his is running patterns with that DB. But neither Sherman nor Revis were successfully challenged all season, really.

Placekicker: Matt Bryant, Atlanta
   Perfect on extra points, 28 of 31 on field goals with all three misses past 50 yards long (and he made seven of those, the most in the league), and a complete kicker. 
Punter: Sam Koch, Baltimore
   Second in gross average, his inside 20s/touchback ratio of 9 to 1 is outstanding, and very few returners actually ran back punts (and rarely for distance, averaging less than seven YPR).
Return specialist: Darren Sproles, Philadelphia.
   It's tempting to give Devon Hester a career-achievement award here, but he didn't have the year Sproles did in his new home in Philly, where he almost single-handedly kept them afloat when the offense struggled this year.
Head coach: Pete Carroll, Seattle
   What the former USC escapee has done in Seattle is downright amazing: defense AND offense are clicking, and the sheer ability to avoid the usual post-Super Bowl deflation (the major cause of the slow start this year was injuries, not SBD) needs to be recognized!

Notable exclusions: QB - Tom Brady, New England; Russell Wilson, Seattle; Tony Romo, Dallas; Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh. RB - LeVeon Bell, Pittsburgh; Arian Foster, Houston; LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia; CJ Anderson, Denver; Jamaal Charles, Kansas City. WR -  AJ Green, Cincinnati; Odelle Beckham, Jr., NY Giants; Julio Jones, Atlanta. TE - Julius Thomas, Denver; Jimmy Graham, New Orleans. OL - Seattle; DE - Mario Williams, Buffalo; Cameron Wake, Miami, DeMarcus Ware, Denver. LB - LaVonte David, Tampa Bay. S - Charles Woodson, Oakland; Glover Quin, Detroit. CB - Aqib Talib, Denver; Vontae Davis, Indianapolis. PK - Adam Viniteri, Indianapolis; HC - Bill Belechick, New England, Bruce Arians, Arizona; Jim Caldwell, Detroit.

TOTAL Recognitions by team: SEATTLE, 4 (6 counting exclusions), DALLAS, 3 (4 counting exclusions), NEW ENGLAND 2 (4), DETROIT 2 (4), ARIZONA 2 (3), DENVER 1 (5), PITTSBURGH 1 (3), PHILADELPHIA 1 (2), ATLANTA 1 (2), HOUSTON 1 (2), KANSAS CITY 1 (2), BALTIMORE 1 (1), GREEN BAY 1 (1), CAROLINA 1 (1), INDIANAPOLIS 0 (2), CINCINNATI 0 (1), BUFFALO 0 (1), TAMPA BAY 0 (1), NY GIANTS 0 (1), NEW ORLEANS 0 (1), MIAMI 0 (1), OAKLAND 0 (1). None from NY Jets, Cleveland, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Washington, San Francisco, St. Louis, Minnesota, Chicago, or San Diego (although it killed us to leave Rivers off).

About NFL Week 16...

Pride before a fall...before the Seattle/Arizona game, Following Football is 2-0 outpredicting the casinos: Baltimore lost outright to Houston, and San Diego not only took the 49ers to OT despite their great start last night, they won outright.

But more than that, if you used our predictions to bet against the spread in this week's games, you'd've gone 10-2 with two games that were washes and two still to go!

(Therefore, we're about to look like fools in these last two games!)

UPDATE: Yup. Seattle just annihilated the team with the fourth string QB. NOT really a surprise, but it won't show up on a pure performance based model. So, we fall to 10-3 against the spread this week (w Denver/Cincy to go), and we went 2-1 outpredicting the casinos, moving to 37-34-3 for the year.

The Oakland Raiders look like they're starting to gel a little bit, don't they? Sure, they're just 3-12, but the wins against KC, SF, and now Buffalo all had some guts involved in them... The Houston Texans may not be playoff bound, but they're sure campaigning for an MVP candidate! The visual of the bloodied JJ Watt dominating the Ravens' offense will stick with the voters... The Indianapolis Colts look like the very definition of "pretenders"... The Jacksonville/Tennessee game Thursday night was a pathetic battle of 2-12 teams doomed to failure today and the impending future, containing no real stars worth watching, still managed to beat the last ever episode of The Colbert Report and every other show on cable Thursday night, So...still think that the NFL is an endangered species?

(Maybe, but not in the next few years...)

Playoffs are getting clearer...the Eagles are out, and all that's left to really determine in the NFC besides seeding is the "winner" of the South division, which will come from the winner of the game Sunday between two six-win teams, Atlanta and Carolina. Meanwhile, the AFC still has a host of eight and nine win teams fighting over a dwindling number of slots, now that the Pittsburgh Steelers hit ten wins and clinched a spot of some sort. So, two places remain, facing the Steelers, Patriots, Broncos, and Colts.

UPDATE: It's really hard to watch the Seattle Seahawks decimate the Arizona Cardinals, 35-6 as the clock is running out, and NOT think they're the favorite to repeat as Super Bowl champions in the same stadium they won in tonight. Hop onto ESPN.com and take a look at Marshawn Lynch's impossible run for a 79-yard touchdown, as well as Russell Wilson's sick TD run towards the end of the game. You won't be disappointed.

A reversal of roles for JJ Watt!

It's one thing to ask a superstar like JJ Watt for his autograph. 

It's quite another to figure that you're going to be such a big star yourself that it's appropriate to send JJ Watt your own autographed jersey!!

ESPN shares Watt's tweet on the subject.

So...who will the NFL's Most Valuable be?

And...how do you define what that is? "Most Valuable" to whom: the team? The league? History? The coffers of the NFL?

So, let's start the conversation with THIS definition: the MVP is the player who contributes the most to his particular team's success on the field that specific year. Not "how spectacular are they?" Not "most popular". Not "award for a career's body of work", not the most surprising, and certainly not the highest selling jerseys, either. Finally, it should be the player who ADDS the most to the win total of his team: a great player whose team would go 16-0 without him adds NO value to his team, while a great player whose team STILL can't win a game also adds NO value to his team in our criteria.

Got it? Good! Here's our short list of whom to consider...

J.J. Watt, Houston. No, he's not going to win, and he probably shouldn't win. But he's probably singlehandedly won at least two games for the Texans with his two-way play, and deserves the credit he gets and then some.

Tom Brady, New England. A very viable candidate because without him, the Pats would be toast. This isn't the team that Matt Cassell could step in and go 11-5 with; a Bradyless New England is third in the division.

Andrew Luck, Indianapolis. See above. 

Peyton Manning, Denver. See above, except that he has so much talent on both sides of the ball this year that it's arguable that even HE isn't indispensable this year.

Russell Wilson, Seattle. A different situation than Luck or Brady: The Seahawks DO have the talent to win with most quarterbacks, but it's Wilson's leadership as much as his throwing or running ability that transform Seattle from a contender into a Super Bowl champ and (increasingly) likely repeat champ.

DeMarco Murray, Dallas. His season will indubitably be the top by a running back this year, but it's the theory of play Jason Garrett has for the Cowboys this year - don't let Romo or the defense lose the game; let the running game win it - that has Murray in the hunt.

Chip Kelly, Philadelphia. Don't laugh: how many extra wins has Kelly come up with for the Eagles this year? If he can make a winning team with Mark Sanchez at quarterback, he's got to be in the conversation as the Most Valuable Something!

Bruce Arians, Arizona. See above, and replace Sanchez with Stanton, and then whomever he threw in after Stanton went out Thursday to beat the Rams with!

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay.  And last but probably most, the likely favorite in most people's eyes may or may not be the MOST valuable under these criteria, if only because the Packers are really good anyway. Certainly, Rodgers is having an insanely good season; he doesn't even HAVE a touchdown/interception ratio at home, because you must have a non-zero number in the denominator to have a ratio, and he's something like 36:0 at Lambeau. He's very likely the Most Outstanding Player; but we're not convinced he's the most valuable to his particular team.

But we get three more weeks to examine the incoming evidence! 

From Gregg Easterbrook and "TMQ"...

As always, we urge you to read Tuesday Morning Quarterback, aka "TMQ", on ESPN.com every (let me guess!) Tuesday morning. Here are his ten "stats of the week"...

Stats Of The Week No. 1: At Lambeau Field, Aaron Rodgers is on a streak of 33 touchdown passes to zero interceptions, including playoffs.

Stats Of The Week No. 2: Atlanta, which goes to Lambeau Field on the next "Monday Night Football," is an NFL-worst .278 -- 10-26 -- in Monday games.

Stats Of The Week No. 3: Niners possession results at home versus Seattle: Punt, punt, interception, punt, punt, punt, end of half, field goal, interception, end of game.

Stats Of The Week No. 4: After going 453 games without a punt block for a touchdown, Minnesota did it twice in the same half versus Carolina.

Stats Of The Week No. 5: Since the start of 2013, the Chiefs are 3-7 in their division, 15-4 versus all other teams, including playoffs.

Stats Of The Week No. 6: The 49ers are 1-3 in their division. In the three previous seasons, they were 13-5-1 including playoffs.

Stats Of The Week No. 7: The Raiders have not won on the road since Nov. 17, 2013.

Stats of the Week No. 8: Boise State is on a 91-4 run when playing on blue.

Stats Of The Week No. 9: Defensive end J.J. Watt has more touchdown receptions (three) than the entire Kansas City wide receiver corps (none).

Stats Of The Week No. 10: The 2-10 Buccaneers are alive for the first overall draft pick -- and also alive to win their division and host a playoff game.

JJ Watt. Defender. Football Star. American Superhero....

So, yeah, JJ's an amazing player - four touchdowns this year (as a d-lineman, although one was a spectacular reception as a tackle-eligible), probable Defensive Player of the Year, charming with the media, commercial superstar...

But do you know what he does behind the scenes? The Houston firefighters and policemen do. 

Or, ask the young man in this video what JJ Watt does in his spare time...

Or his bride Breanna...the crying six year old girl...