Sorry for the delay in this post: real life intervened. But, here are the 38 scheduled bowl games and their predicted outcomes, not just from Following Football but from Sagarin, ESPN, and Vegas:
Dec 20: ESPN SAGARIN VEGAS Following FB
Nevada v LA-Lafayette: Nev by 4 Nev by 1.4 Nev by 1. ULL by 1/2
Utah St v UTEP: USU by 13 USU by 8.8. USU by 10. USU by 12
Utah v Colorado St: CSU by 3. Utah by 5.6 Utah by 3 CSU by 1/2
W Michigan v Air Force: WM by 7. WM by 0.5. AF by 1.5. AF by 6
Bowling Green v S Alabama: BG by 1 SA by 2.4. SA by 3. SA by 1/2
Dec 22
BYU v Memphis: Mem by 7. Mem by 2.0 Mem by 1.5. Mem by 3
Dec 23
Marshall v N Illinois: Mrsh by 7. Mrsh by 12.5. Mrsh by 10 Mrsh by 4
Navy v San Diego St: SDSU by 1. SDSU by 3.1. SDSU by 3. Navy by 1
Dec 24
C Michigan v W Kentucky: WK by 13. WK by 5.0. WK by 4. WK by 5
Fresno St v Rice: Rice by 8. Rice by 2.6. Rice by 2.5 Rice by 1/2
Dec 26
Illinois v Louisiana Tech: LT by 11. LT by 9.1. LT by 6. LT by 4
Rutgers v North Carolina: NC by 3. NC by 2.7. NC by 3. Rut by 1/2.
N Carolina St v UCF: NCS by 1. UCF by 3.3. UCF by 2. UCF by 2 1/2
...and we'll pick up the second week later in this week. But for Bowl Season, we're scoring a little differently...or at least, a little additionally! We'll ALSO keep a tally of which of these four highly esteemed methodologies picks the highest number of game winners, straight up. To the victor belong the non-existent spoils!
Showing posts with label Nevada. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nevada. Show all posts
Friday, December 26, 2014
Friday, November 28, 2014
Apparently NOBODY wants to go!
Coming towards the regular season's end, three teams matched up for the Group of Five's auto-bid into the big bowl games (what used to be called the BCS Buster): Marshall, Colorado St, and Boise St. We had the three teams in that order here at Following Football (Marshall #23, Colorado St #24, Boise St #29), although the CFP Committee actually has Boise at 23, Marshall at 24, and Colorado St just off the radar.
However, the Thundering Herd fell for the first time today (as reported here), 67-66 in overtime to Western Kentucky, and just now, the Air Force Academy kicked a last play field goal to beat the Rams, 27-24! Is this a good sign or a BAD one for the Broncos tomorrow? Their home game tomorrow against Utah St now becomes not only the de facto Mountain division title but possibly the Fiesta Bowl bid redux on the line! Technically, they still have a title game (at home) against Nevada or maybe Fresno next week, but given that the Mountain West looks like the SEC (all the talent in one division - Air Force is the fourth best team in the division AND the league), that may just be a formality...
However, the Thundering Herd fell for the first time today (as reported here), 67-66 in overtime to Western Kentucky, and just now, the Air Force Academy kicked a last play field goal to beat the Rams, 27-24! Is this a good sign or a BAD one for the Broncos tomorrow? Their home game tomorrow against Utah St now becomes not only the de facto Mountain division title but possibly the Fiesta Bowl bid redux on the line! Technically, they still have a title game (at home) against Nevada or maybe Fresno next week, but given that the Mountain West looks like the SEC (all the talent in one division - Air Force is the fourth best team in the division AND the league), that may just be a formality...
Thursday, November 20, 2014
We're in love with Holly Anderson...
Here's Holly's guide to the upcoming week watching college football, including the in-stadium pillow fight in South Dakota, the rivalry games on tap, and a woman riding an alligator!
Monday, November 17, 2014
Looking at the new FOLLOWING FOOTBALL tier rankings...
...our Top 4 are Alabama, Mississippi St, Florida St, and Oregon. As we noted Saturday, we're not likely to punish a team for losing by the amount expected (the Vegas spread was seven; they lost by five), especially on the road against another Tier A school. Sure, we'll move the Tide above them, but was the Seminoles' performance against an unranked, Tier G Miami squad more impressive? No. Certainly, we're much less impressed with TCU's debacle at Kansas than anything the Bulldogs did in Tuscaloosa. If you thought they'd lose at Alabama, and they do, no worse than expected - how can you punish that? To us, this is a classic case of the loss being more impressive than TCU's win.
...We made some adjustments based on some external rankings this week, in particular Peter Wolfe and Jeff Sagarin's work, but also looking through the Massey Index we linked to last week as well. If there were virtual ties within a tier, for example, we'd often turn to those sources for a second opinion (sorting out the middle of the ACC North, for example), but on a few occasions a consensus of opinions different from ours made us re-evaluate our rankings. The most blatant example was Western Kentucky, whom we had within three tiers of the bottom all year but whom every list we consulted had up in the 80's or so. Given their recent body of work (they're up to .500 now) and those opinions, we concurred and moved them up to tier O, number 88 on your radio dial...
...Looking at the list with conferences attached (yes, that's what the lower case letters after the overall record are!), a fairly clear pattern emerges: The SEC gets the benefit of the doubt if there's an extra loss on the record, particularly the West, over the closely regarded Pac-12, Big-12, and Big-10. The ACC is probably not quite as well regarded, or schools like Duke would be higher. Then there's a bit of a gap, because it takes about a two-game better record for a school from the Mountain West or the old Big East, the AAC, to match a school from one of the Power 5. (#37 is Maryland at 6-4; #38 is Boise St at 8-2.) Then, you drop down to the MAC, Conference USA, and the Sun Belt, all of whom lie essentially in a second division as it is (and the MW/AAC are fighting to stay above that). That's why Marshall sits in #25 with a 10-0 record: the schools in that "division" can't run with the "big boys" because they can't play the big boys. Rankings are determined first and foremost by one simple question: if these two teams played on a neutral field, who would win? The winner is ranked higher, the loser lower. Marshall's beaten everyone it's played...but would it beat any of the 24 teams above it? Arizona? Duke? Notre Dame? Oklahoma? It might even be generous to say that they'd beat the teams immediately below it...Utah? Clemson? Louisville? Miami-FL? We'd love to see them against West Virginia, given their proximity!
...In fact, here's an interesting tidbit: The "strength of schedule" parameter for FCS defending champion North Dakota St is actually HIGHER than that of FBS Marshall! It's hard to argue that they're playing opponents that are comparable to what even Florida St is facing, much less the SEC!
...These tiers make for some strange bedfellows! Seeing Texas moving all the way up to #40, right below...East Carolina? And finding 6-4 Nevada at #59, right between North Carolina St (6-5) and North Carolina (5-5)!
...Towards the bottom, in our attempt to keep our six-team tiers consistent (for a change, right?), we ended up with a "Bottom Two" - Georgia St and SMU. Despite the Mustangs' winless record, Georgia St is rated below them in many of the computer systems we looked through. Nevertheless, only a true #128 could lose the game Saturday the way they lost it - giving up a near-legendary twenty-one play drive over the course of the last six minutes of the game, including three fourth down conversions with the game on the line, and letting the opponent you've held scoreless for 3 1/2 quarters score the touchdown they had to score in the last six seconds to win. Amazing. (Admittedly, Idaho is close, though - losing to Tier T Troy, at home, by 17 points, when they'd been favored going in. That's impressive.)
...We made some adjustments based on some external rankings this week, in particular Peter Wolfe and Jeff Sagarin's work, but also looking through the Massey Index we linked to last week as well. If there were virtual ties within a tier, for example, we'd often turn to those sources for a second opinion (sorting out the middle of the ACC North, for example), but on a few occasions a consensus of opinions different from ours made us re-evaluate our rankings. The most blatant example was Western Kentucky, whom we had within three tiers of the bottom all year but whom every list we consulted had up in the 80's or so. Given their recent body of work (they're up to .500 now) and those opinions, we concurred and moved them up to tier O, number 88 on your radio dial...
...Looking at the list with conferences attached (yes, that's what the lower case letters after the overall record are!), a fairly clear pattern emerges: The SEC gets the benefit of the doubt if there's an extra loss on the record, particularly the West, over the closely regarded Pac-12, Big-12, and Big-10. The ACC is probably not quite as well regarded, or schools like Duke would be higher. Then there's a bit of a gap, because it takes about a two-game better record for a school from the Mountain West or the old Big East, the AAC, to match a school from one of the Power 5. (#37 is Maryland at 6-4; #38 is Boise St at 8-2.) Then, you drop down to the MAC, Conference USA, and the Sun Belt, all of whom lie essentially in a second division as it is (and the MW/AAC are fighting to stay above that). That's why Marshall sits in #25 with a 10-0 record: the schools in that "division" can't run with the "big boys" because they can't play the big boys. Rankings are determined first and foremost by one simple question: if these two teams played on a neutral field, who would win? The winner is ranked higher, the loser lower. Marshall's beaten everyone it's played...but would it beat any of the 24 teams above it? Arizona? Duke? Notre Dame? Oklahoma? It might even be generous to say that they'd beat the teams immediately below it...Utah? Clemson? Louisville? Miami-FL? We'd love to see them against West Virginia, given their proximity!
...In fact, here's an interesting tidbit: The "strength of schedule" parameter for FCS defending champion North Dakota St is actually HIGHER than that of FBS Marshall! It's hard to argue that they're playing opponents that are comparable to what even Florida St is facing, much less the SEC!
...These tiers make for some strange bedfellows! Seeing Texas moving all the way up to #40, right below...East Carolina? And finding 6-4 Nevada at #59, right between North Carolina St (6-5) and North Carolina (5-5)!
...Towards the bottom, in our attempt to keep our six-team tiers consistent (for a change, right?), we ended up with a "Bottom Two" - Georgia St and SMU. Despite the Mustangs' winless record, Georgia St is rated below them in many of the computer systems we looked through. Nevertheless, only a true #128 could lose the game Saturday the way they lost it - giving up a near-legendary twenty-one play drive over the course of the last six minutes of the game, including three fourth down conversions with the game on the line, and letting the opponent you've held scoreless for 3 1/2 quarters score the touchdown they had to score in the last six seconds to win. Amazing. (Admittedly, Idaho is close, though - losing to Tier T Troy, at home, by 17 points, when they'd been favored going in. That's impressive.)
Sunday, October 26, 2014
Week 8 tiers continued - the Ground Floor!
Continuing out of the Basement and up to the Ground Floor with Tiers K through P, the "second quartile", if you will - we refuse to rank teams this early in the season, but these are teams #62 through #96 (there are seven teams in each of these five tiers). Onward!
Tier P:
Colorado (2-6, 0-5 and the lowest team in the Pac12), Indiana (3-4, and the lowest team in the Big Ten at 0-3), Ohio (4-5, 2-3 MAC), Purdue (3-5, 1-3 in the Big Ten alongside Indiana), Texas St (4-3, 2-1 Sun), UAB (4-4, 2-2 C-USA), and Wyoming (3-5, 1-3 MW).
Tier N (no Tier O - don't really have a reason...):
The Sun Belt's 2-1 Arkansas St (4-3), the MAC's Central Michigan (5-4, 3-2) and Western Michigan (3-3, 3-1), the Mountain West's Fresno St (3-5, 2-2) and San Jose St (3-4, 2-1), Rice (4-3, 2-1 C-USA), and South Florida (3-5, 2-2 ACC).
Tier M:
Only Conference USA has two representatives in Tier M - Florida Atlantic (3-5, 2-2) and Texas-El Paso (4-3, 2-1). The other five schools are Michigan (3-5, 1-3 Big 10), Navy (4-4 as independent), San Diego St (4-3, 3-1 MW), Temple (4-3, 2-2 AAC), and Washington St (2-6, 1-4 Pac12). [Michigan should find it appropriate that they're in Tier "M"...yet somehow we doubt they're pleased!]
Tier L:
BYU has fallen all the way to here (4-4 as an independent), alongside Illinois (4-4, 1-3 Big 10), Middle Tennessee (5-3, 4-1 C-USA), Texas and Texas Tech (both 3-5, although the Longhorns have one more win in the Big 12), Toledo (5-3, undefeated at 4-0 in the MAC), and Louisiana-Lafayette (4-3, and also undefeated in conference at 3-0 in the Sun Belt).
Tier K:
The first tier without a losing record includes six different conferences (there's only one tier without duplicate teams from the same conference...and we haven't reached it yet!) starts with Bowling Green (5-3, 3-1 in the MAC), Central Florida (5-2, 3-0) and Cincinnati (4-3, 2-1) from the American Athletic Conference, Georgia Southern (the highest ranked team from the Sun Belt conference at 6-2 and 5-0), Louisiana Tech (5-3, 4-0 C-USA), Nevada (5-3, 2-2 MW), and North Carolina St (4-4, 0-4 in the ACC).
Tier P:
Colorado (2-6, 0-5 and the lowest team in the Pac12), Indiana (3-4, and the lowest team in the Big Ten at 0-3), Ohio (4-5, 2-3 MAC), Purdue (3-5, 1-3 in the Big Ten alongside Indiana), Texas St (4-3, 2-1 Sun), UAB (4-4, 2-2 C-USA), and Wyoming (3-5, 1-3 MW).
Tier N (no Tier O - don't really have a reason...):
The Sun Belt's 2-1 Arkansas St (4-3), the MAC's Central Michigan (5-4, 3-2) and Western Michigan (3-3, 3-1), the Mountain West's Fresno St (3-5, 2-2) and San Jose St (3-4, 2-1), Rice (4-3, 2-1 C-USA), and South Florida (3-5, 2-2 ACC).
Tier M:
Only Conference USA has two representatives in Tier M - Florida Atlantic (3-5, 2-2) and Texas-El Paso (4-3, 2-1). The other five schools are Michigan (3-5, 1-3 Big 10), Navy (4-4 as independent), San Diego St (4-3, 3-1 MW), Temple (4-3, 2-2 AAC), and Washington St (2-6, 1-4 Pac12). [Michigan should find it appropriate that they're in Tier "M"...yet somehow we doubt they're pleased!]
Tier L:
BYU has fallen all the way to here (4-4 as an independent), alongside Illinois (4-4, 1-3 Big 10), Middle Tennessee (5-3, 4-1 C-USA), Texas and Texas Tech (both 3-5, although the Longhorns have one more win in the Big 12), Toledo (5-3, undefeated at 4-0 in the MAC), and Louisiana-Lafayette (4-3, and also undefeated in conference at 3-0 in the Sun Belt).
Tier K:
The first tier without a losing record includes six different conferences (there's only one tier without duplicate teams from the same conference...and we haven't reached it yet!) starts with Bowling Green (5-3, 3-1 in the MAC), Central Florida (5-2, 3-0) and Cincinnati (4-3, 2-1) from the American Athletic Conference, Georgia Southern (the highest ranked team from the Sun Belt conference at 6-2 and 5-0), Louisiana Tech (5-3, 4-0 C-USA), Nevada (5-3, 2-2 MW), and North Carolina St (4-4, 0-4 in the ACC).
Tuesday, October 14, 2014
Highlights of the upcoming WEEK SEVEN!
There are some MASSIVE games in Week 7! We're in the middle of the college season, probably a third of the way through the NFL plate, and down to four weeks left in Canada before the Grey Cup playoffs begin, so there are a ton of important match-ups to look at:
CFL: The two games that should be close are on Saturday, when Montreal goes to Toronto for ownership of the East lead (depending on whether Hamilton holds serve Friday night when Ottawa comes to town), and the big game for second place in the West Sunday, when Edmonton visits Saskatchewan. The Eskimos are riding high and hold a one-game edge over the defending champs, but hosting the game should give the Rough-Riders an edge. Will it be enough to give them the win? They sure need it, because British Columbia is just a game behind them (and would be tied in the loss column with them if Edmonton wins Sunday)! 12-2 Calgary travels to 6-9 Winnipeg in the other game on Saturday. Predictions: Hamilton, Toronto, Calgary, and Edmonton. Especially Edmonton.
NCAA: The beginning of our Tuesday night schedule is tonight, with Louisiana-Lafayette going to Texas State. (When the Wednesday games start in a few weeks, you can feast on football seven days a week! Bliss!) Thursday has VaTech at Pitt and Utah at Oregon State, two potentially close games, and Friday sees Fresno on the blue at Boise, and Temple travelling to Houston. No calls on any of those games - the lines are too accurate to pick against. But Boise just lost their best receiver...
On Saturday, a plethora of games to choose from! Highlights include several Tier 1 teams in action, including the nightcap with two top tier teams, Notre Dame at Florida State. We think 11 1/2 points is too big a spread - take the Irish. Other top tier teams in action include Baylor at Tier 4 West Virginia (8 1/2 points is too close - the Bears will want to make a statement), Alabama hosting Tier 3 Texas A&M, TCU hosting Tier 2 Oklahoma State, Ole Miss hosting Tier 7 Tennessee, and Oregon hosting Tier 5 Washington (we want to say that Chris Petersen will keep it closer than 21 points, but in reality, three TDs is probably about right). Other top games will include Tier 3 Kansas State at Tier 2 Oklahoma (take the Sooners and the 8 points); Tier 5 Virginia at Tier 3 Duke (the Blue Devils deserve more than 2 1/2 points - take them); Tier 2 UCLA at their UC brethren Cal-Berkeley; Tier 5 Rutgers at Tier 3 Ohio State; Tier 3 Clemson at Tier 6 Boston College; Tier 2 Georgia at Tier 6 Arkansas (we really want to give the Bulldogs the edge, but...no. No prediction.); Tier 6 Missouri at Tier 4 Florida (Missouri isn't as bad as they were last week, and Florida isn't as good. Take the Tigers and the 6 points.); Utah State at Colorado State, both Tier 6; Tier 3 Nebraska at Tier 7 Northwestern; and Tier 4 Kentucky going into Tier 2 LSU (and winning outright! Take the points!). The late games include Nevada upsetting Tier 6 BYU at home (write it down!), and Tier 4 schools Stanford at Arizona State (no prediction, but we struggle with why the Sun Devils are the underdogs...).
FCS: Games of interest to us...Northern Colorado (whom we just posted about today) goes to the red turf of Eastern Washington; Southern Utah goes to Pocatello to play ISU; Cal Poly visits Sacramento State in a potential shootout (CSU Sacramento's games tend to be 59-55 affairs!), and our personal favorites, the Savannah State Tigers, host Bethune-Cookman, who is a 214-point favorite. (No. Not really. Odds don't post for FCS games. But Savannah will find a way to lose this one big and probably embarassingly. That's why we love them.)
NFL: Ignoring the yawner Thursday night (Patriots by more than ten over the Jets), Sunday's line-up includes Atlanta at Baltimore, Seattle at St. Louis (they'll beat the Rams by MORE than the seven points listed), Cleveland at Jacksonville (take the Browns), New Orleans at Detroit (the Saints road woes are real - take the Lions), Kansas City at the Chargers (a classic case of people not realizing how good San Diego is this year, and that KC 2014 is NOT KC 2013), Arizona at Oakland (doesn't matter if Tiger Woods is there again, the Raiders lose by more than four), and the big game, San Francisco at Denver. It's tempting to pick Denver here, just as it is to pick Dallas over the Giants and the spread, but we'll be conservative.
CFL: The two games that should be close are on Saturday, when Montreal goes to Toronto for ownership of the East lead (depending on whether Hamilton holds serve Friday night when Ottawa comes to town), and the big game for second place in the West Sunday, when Edmonton visits Saskatchewan. The Eskimos are riding high and hold a one-game edge over the defending champs, but hosting the game should give the Rough-Riders an edge. Will it be enough to give them the win? They sure need it, because British Columbia is just a game behind them (and would be tied in the loss column with them if Edmonton wins Sunday)! 12-2 Calgary travels to 6-9 Winnipeg in the other game on Saturday. Predictions: Hamilton, Toronto, Calgary, and Edmonton. Especially Edmonton.
NCAA: The beginning of our Tuesday night schedule is tonight, with Louisiana-Lafayette going to Texas State. (When the Wednesday games start in a few weeks, you can feast on football seven days a week! Bliss!) Thursday has VaTech at Pitt and Utah at Oregon State, two potentially close games, and Friday sees Fresno on the blue at Boise, and Temple travelling to Houston. No calls on any of those games - the lines are too accurate to pick against. But Boise just lost their best receiver...
On Saturday, a plethora of games to choose from! Highlights include several Tier 1 teams in action, including the nightcap with two top tier teams, Notre Dame at Florida State. We think 11 1/2 points is too big a spread - take the Irish. Other top tier teams in action include Baylor at Tier 4 West Virginia (8 1/2 points is too close - the Bears will want to make a statement), Alabama hosting Tier 3 Texas A&M, TCU hosting Tier 2 Oklahoma State, Ole Miss hosting Tier 7 Tennessee, and Oregon hosting Tier 5 Washington (we want to say that Chris Petersen will keep it closer than 21 points, but in reality, three TDs is probably about right). Other top games will include Tier 3 Kansas State at Tier 2 Oklahoma (take the Sooners and the 8 points); Tier 5 Virginia at Tier 3 Duke (the Blue Devils deserve more than 2 1/2 points - take them); Tier 2 UCLA at their UC brethren Cal-Berkeley; Tier 5 Rutgers at Tier 3 Ohio State; Tier 3 Clemson at Tier 6 Boston College; Tier 2 Georgia at Tier 6 Arkansas (we really want to give the Bulldogs the edge, but...no. No prediction.); Tier 6 Missouri at Tier 4 Florida (Missouri isn't as bad as they were last week, and Florida isn't as good. Take the Tigers and the 6 points.); Utah State at Colorado State, both Tier 6; Tier 3 Nebraska at Tier 7 Northwestern; and Tier 4 Kentucky going into Tier 2 LSU (and winning outright! Take the points!). The late games include Nevada upsetting Tier 6 BYU at home (write it down!), and Tier 4 schools Stanford at Arizona State (no prediction, but we struggle with why the Sun Devils are the underdogs...).
FCS: Games of interest to us...Northern Colorado (whom we just posted about today) goes to the red turf of Eastern Washington; Southern Utah goes to Pocatello to play ISU; Cal Poly visits Sacramento State in a potential shootout (CSU Sacramento's games tend to be 59-55 affairs!), and our personal favorites, the Savannah State Tigers, host Bethune-Cookman, who is a 214-point favorite. (No. Not really. Odds don't post for FCS games. But Savannah will find a way to lose this one big and probably embarassingly. That's why we love them.)
NFL: Ignoring the yawner Thursday night (Patriots by more than ten over the Jets), Sunday's line-up includes Atlanta at Baltimore, Seattle at St. Louis (they'll beat the Rams by MORE than the seven points listed), Cleveland at Jacksonville (take the Browns), New Orleans at Detroit (the Saints road woes are real - take the Lions), Kansas City at the Chargers (a classic case of people not realizing how good San Diego is this year, and that KC 2014 is NOT KC 2013), Arizona at Oakland (doesn't matter if Tiger Woods is there again, the Raiders lose by more than four), and the big game, San Francisco at Denver. It's tempting to pick Denver here, just as it is to pick Dallas over the Giants and the spread, but we'll be conservative.
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