Okay, now all the votes are in...

...from The Age, Sports Fan Australia, Following Football, and AFL.com.au, and here's your All-AFL 2015 team at mid-season:

Behind the 50:
Alex Rance (Rich) - the outstanding on-ball defender in the game today.
Sam Mitchell (Haw)
Michael Hurley (Ess)
Jarred McVeigh (Syd)
Tom McDonald (Mel)
Matt Boyd (Western)

Between the 50s: 
Nat Fyfe (Fre) - Polled 6+ points voting EVERY round Freo's played (no one else has polled in more than 10 of their games)
Matt Priddis (WCE)
David Armitage (StK)
Todd Goldstein (NMK)
Dan Hannebury (Syd)
Dylan Shiel (GWS)

Forward of 50:
Lance Franklin (Syd) - it's rare that the highest paid player's also the best, but Buddy is...
Scott Pendelbury (Col)
Luke Parker (Syd)
Jamie Elliot (Col)
Josh Kennedy (WCE)
Eddie Betts (Ade)

Interchange:
Aaron Sandilands (Fre) - the premier ruckman in the game today. 
Andrew Gaff (WCE)
Corey Enright (Geel)
Patrick Dangerfield (Ade)

And, on my personal wish list to watch play any day of the week:
Cyril Rioli (Haw) - Along with Betts, the most exciting player in the game!
Jeremy Cameron (GWS) - the top goal scorer of 2017 and beyond...
Adam Goodes (Syd) - enjoying a fantastic resurgence since May!
Nic Natainui (WCE) - the most athletic player in footy
Rob Murphy (WB) - always on the ball, literally
Marcus Bontempelli (WB) - 2019 Brownlow medalist
Chad Wingard (PA) - a down year for him and Port; still a phenomenal player
Jack Riewoldt (Rich) - Jack would have been player 23 on the All-Aussie list
Jesse Hogan (Melb) - rookie of the year, possibly
Gary Ablett, Jr. (GC) - it took just one game to remind us why he's the greatest player of his generation and the Brownlow favorite any year he's healthy (and some he's not, like 2014!).

(And, by the way, here are our top 22 point getters in voting for Player of the Year so far:)
NAME                           TEAM               POINTS

Fyfe, Nat	F	221
Hannebury, Dan	SY	124
Armitage, David	SK	112
Pendlebury, Scott	CO	106
Cotchin, Trent	R	101
Shiel, Dylan	GW	100
Mitchell, Sam	H	92
Priddis, Matt	WC	91
Goldstein, Todd	NM	88
Steven, Jack	SK	83
Gray, Robbie	PA	81
Murphy, Marc	CA	80
Beams, Dayne	B	80
Franklin, Lance	SY	79
Kennedy, Josh	SY	75
Martin, Dustin	R	74
Dangerfield, Patrick	A	73
Gaff, Andrew	WC	73
Hurley, Michael	E	70
Parker, Luke	SY	70
Murphy, Robert	WB	69
Neale, Lachie	F	68

 

AFL Round 14 in review

The biggest rout of the year took place on Sunday afternoon (which was Saturday night here in the US), when St Kilda upset free-falling Essendon by the astronomical score of 162-52, a 110-point victory!

Throughout the game, the Saints played against a defense that resembled cones in a practice drill (or "witches' hats", if you prefer the down under term). To score 25 goals in a game is hard to do in a game of footy, but the lack of energy in the Bomber personnel was, to be kind, disheartening.

The commemoration of murdered Adelaide head coach Phil Walsh, begun Friday night at the Collingwood/Hawthorn game, continued at every game throughout the weekend - a stirring tribute to a fellow "lifer" from the footy community. The idea that teams can go tooth-and-nail for two hours and then come together and live out the Adelaide 2015 campaign motto, #weflyasone, was superb. We posted Rohan Connelly's plea to continue the camaraderie beyond this weekend, and we join him in those pleas.

As for the actual games that were played this weekend... 

Sydney over Port Adelaide by 10; Hawthorn by 10 over Collingwood; Richmond struggled past a toughened GWS with a nine-point win, and Western had the same difficulty with Carlton before they managed an eleven-point victory. Gold Coast welcomed both David Swallow and dual-Brownlow winner Gary Ablett Jr. back Saturday, and apparently that was all they needed, as they annihilated the North Melbourne Kangaroos 125-70 (and it wasn't that close). We talked about St Kilda's 110-point whipping of Essendon, but the West Coast Eagles beat up on Melbourne as well, winning 114-60. Brisbane held up against league-leader Fremantle for three quarters, tied throughout in wet, messy conditions that made it a tackler's paradise (more tackles were made in this game than every game ever except one (a game (there was a Richmond/Port game in 2010 with an unimaginable 258 tackles, or one every 25 seconds or so. Ridiculous.) Unfortunately, there are four quarters, and Freo scored seven goals to one in the last to win, 84-48.  

The Adelaide / Geelong game was cancelled, but the stadium was opened for fans to come onto the field and pay their respects, kick the football around parts of the field, and share their grief with other mourners. Adelaide is presumed to be back to work next week, with a game at West Coast on Saturday evening.

This week's prognostications...

For round 14 of the Australian footy season...

- Sydney is favored at home by 9 over Port Adelaide; we have it more like 24 points and are taking them to cover easily.
- Hawthorn is favored by 23 at the MCG over Collingwood in the battle for fourth on the ladder; we think that's about right.
- Richmond at home against the floundering GWS: favored by 25, should end up higher than that.
- North Melbourne goes to the Gold Coast and is favored by 18; even with Gary Ablett due back this week, it's hard to imaging the Kangaroos winning by less than 18.
- Western is favored over Carlton by 11; despite Carlton's improved form, we have it as a 24 point spread and would bet that way.
- West Coast is favored by 24 at Melbourne; our ratings have it at 38, but we're settling for a bet to win for the Eagles.
- Essendon is favored over St. Kilda by ten in a battle of 4-8 teams; we're choosing the 2:30 to 1 upset and taking the Saints to win outright.
- Adelaide at home, favored by 5 over Geelong, with both teams on the fringe of the top eight, trying to make the finals; we see another upset here and are taking Geelong to win outright. Both of these bets, by the way, are against what our rating system says. Trusting our instincts. We have five games that the FF ratings disagree with the odds makers by more than ten points; it'll be interesting to see what happens!
- And finally, Fremantle should dismantle Brisbane - the oddsmakers say by 53; we don't think they'll keep the foot on the gas that long. 

For Week 2 of the Canadian Football League...

- Hamilton at Winnipeg: we're predicting Hamilton by two, 24-22.
- Calgary at Montreal: Calgary should win easily, 29-7.
- British Columbia at Ottawa: despite last week's fool's gold, BC wins 32-21.
- Toronto at Saskatchewan: this would have been different before last weekend! However, giving the circumstances at each franchise after the first game, we'll go Toronto by six, 29-23.

Our AFL record is immaculate: we've chosen 78 correct winners out of 108 (over 72%), which places us in the top half of the top 1% of AFL "tipsters" this year as certified by the AFL itself.  On the other hand, we went one for four during our first week of picking CFL games, mostly due to fallen quarterbacks. But, a loss is a loss, and we'll simply hope we've done better this week!

Midseason eval of each footy team in the AFL

These two articles together (splitting the eighteen AFL teams into articles each looking at nine teams) will give veteran footy followers a keen sense of where their teams are lacking and where they're running with power, but it'll also help the novice AFL fan get a feel for what each team is right now and what they're capable of.

Adelaide-Brisbane-Carlton-Collingwood-Essendon-Fremantle-Geelong-Gold Coast-GWS

Hawthorn-Melbourne-North-Port Adelaide-Richmond-St.Kilda-Sydney-West Coast-Western

And by the way, if you're still looking to get a handle on who each of these teams really is, here's a link to a great set of descriptions, one for each Australian club, matching them to an American sports team which they most closely resemble. (For example, Fremantle, who won last night 80-73 in a thrilling game, most closely resembles hockey's New Jersey Devils, while their opponent Collingwood fills the niche of baseball's royalty, the New York Yankees.)

Week 8 down under...

Results of Round 8...
Geelong def. Carlton 140-63
West Coast def. St. Kilda 131-78
GWS def. Adelaide 108-84
Collingwood def. Gold Coast 132-63
Sydney def. Hawthorn 73-69
Fremantle def. No. Melbourne 115-42
Essendon def. Brisbane 136-78
Melbourne def. Western 103-64
Richmond def. Port Adelaide 76-43 

The AFL ladder right now...
Fremantle is still two games clear, and with Sydney's revenge win over the Hawks (possibly the game of the year so far!), Freo has four games clear of Hawthorn with 14 to go! 

Two games back at 6-2 are Sydney and two surprises: West Coast (who will find out in the next four weeks if they're real or not, playing three finalists) and Greater Western, who won three in a row for the first time ever. To put the Giants' success in perspective: the best season in GWS' history, 2014, was 6-16. They're already 6-2 this season.

At 5-3 comes two teams who (while firmly in the top 8 right now) have questionable credentials given the quality of teams they've beaten: Collingwood and Adelaide. Right behind them are six teams fighting for the last finals spots - Hawthorn (very likely), Richmond (see Collingwood), Essendon (who knows?), Geelong (looking more and more probable), Western (depends which game you watch!), and North Melbourne (who may be as talented as anybody, but...). If you give the top four credit for likely making the playoffs, the next four most likely to last the season might be Adelaide, Hawthorn, Geelong, and maybe Western. But it's a long season...

...and Port Adelaide is still lurking there at 3-5, if they can return to earlier form. Their partner at 3-5 is Melbourne, but those were three upsets. Below them are St. Kilda and Brisbane, with two upsets in eight attempts, and 1-7 disasters Gold Coast and Carlton.

In the FF Rating system,
Hawthorn still leads with an 85.3 rating (it doesn't hurt that they lose by four and win by a hundred), but Fremantle has crept within a few points to 81.8 (a jump of thirteen points since round 1). Right behind them are Sydney (no surprise, 76.5) and West Coast (yes surprise, 74.1).

Then there's a huge clump sitting in spots #5-13, all close to the average score of 50: Geelong (58.3), Adelaide (56.5), Port Adelaide (55.0, despite recent losses), North Melbourne (54.3), Collingwood (53.6), Richmond (53.1), Essendon and GWS (51.7), and if we stretch the definition, Western (40.6, but until their last two big losses they were also around 50). You see why it should be hard to predict these games!

Below that, you have Melbourne (29.8), Gold Coast (who's dropped all the way to 23.3), Brisbane (21.6), St. Kilda (actually increased to 16.0) and lowly Carlton, who's lost 23 points this year and sits at a 14.3 rating. (Gold Coast has also dropped 23 points, and Port has lost 17. On the other side, GWS is up 20, Collingwood up 17, West Coast 15 and Fremantle 13 since March!)

Bipolar Footy Weekend: Saturday was as predicted, but SUNDAY?

Great game on Friday night, for once, as North Melbourne defeated Essendon 93-82 in an exciting game that flip-flopped several times. But Saturday...yawn...five games that all played to form, and the closest one was 43 points in the end:
- Adelaide over St. Kilda 119-73 (although the Saints started with a three-goal lead!)
- Hawthorn over Melbourne 155-50, and it wasn't that close.
- Sydney pulled away from Geelong 120-77 after a close first three quarters.
- GWS proved its credentials by annihilating poor Carlton 135-57, following their "famous victory" over the Hawks last week.
- And poor Gold Coast fielded whoever they could in a 135-43 rout by the West Coast Eagles that was well over 100 points shortly after three quarters, before they called off the slaughter.

So, expectations for Sunday were NOT high. And then...
- The Western Bulldogs (having fought to use Etihad Stadium this week, rather than give it up to a soccer tourney) fought back from 32-0 to tie the game at 88 with less than 4 minutes to go, only to see 7-0 Fremantle win by 13 (101-88) in the end. What a incredible game from both teams!
-As the legendary Rex Hunt (my favorite footy voice of all time!) broadcast his 2000th game of AFL/VFL footy (and the stories he can share!...), his ole team Richmond upset Collingwood 105-100 in a game that had 12 lead changes!
-And finally, amazingly rising from the dead, the Brisbane Lions pulled away from the much more talented Port Adelaide Power and won 102-65!

So, the ladder as it sits right now...
1. Fremantle. 7-0 and unbeaten - but happy to have been challenged this week! Still two games clear of all competition and rolling on all cylinders.

2-5. West Coast, Sydney, Adelaide and GWS, all 5-2. All four look like realistic finalists, although I'd take Freo over any of them at the MCG or anywhere else right now.

6-9. Hawthorn, Collingwood, Western Bulldogs and North Melbourne, all 4-3. No reason any of the four couldn't be finalists, but certainly not all nine teams will make finals. Oddly, the difference between 8th and 9th places right now - between Western and North - is exactly ONE point in the percentage: Western has exactly as many points scored as allowed (616/616, or 100.0%), while the Kangaroos have one less point than scored (656/657, or 99.9%).

10-13. Richmond, Essendon, Port Adelaide and Geelong, all at a desperate 3-4 and trying to stay close to finals contention. With fifteen games (2/3 of the season) still to go, there's still plenty of time to make the top eight - after all, Richmond made it from a 3-10 start last year - but the teams ahead of them are going to make it difficult!

14-16. St. Kilda, Melbourne, and Brisbane, all happy to be 2-5 because most folks have them pegged for the bottom of the ladder and maybe not having won any games by now!

17-18. Gold Coast and Carlton, 1-6, desperate for anything positive to happen this season. GC literally had too few players to practice last week, and Carlton "simply doesn't have the talent" to keep up with the rest of the league this year. Gold Coast in particular is a huge disappointment, having expected to make finals this year.

The AFL ladder looks very strange...

Week Six down under was almost as wild as week Two was - five legitimate upsets out of the nine games, including the youngest team beating the reigning double premiers, and the fifth largest comeback in footy history by St. Kilda, of all teams!

Let's start at the end, though: the standings (or "ladder") after 27% of the season -

1. Fremantle Dockers (6-0) - alone on top, two games clear of everyone, and even more amazing, they're also 6-0 against the spread! At some point, they'll come back to the pack.

I think.

2-7. At 4-2, it's the Sydney Swans and five pretenders to the crown, none of whom were really expected to be here: Collingwood, the Western Bulldogs, Adelaide, West Coast, and Greater Western Sydney. They've all played well, with one or two weak games scattered, and all deserve to be here. 

The question: how many of them will be able to stay up here? I say: Sydney, Western, and Adelaide for sure, but the other three all have a shot to hold on and make the top 8 for finals.

8-12. At 3-3 we find the five teams who expected to be up at or around the top of the ladder: Hawthorn (WAY ahead on percentage over the others), Port Adelaide, Essendon, Geelong, and North Melbourne. Presumably, even this early in the season, not all of these teams are going to turn it around and make finals - the question, though, is which ones WILL do it, and which ones won't? I say: Hawthorn, Port, and (if you force a choice on me) North Melbourne, by a hair over Essendon.

13-18. Right now, there are three 2-4 teams and three 1-5 teams which will be separated for draft order after September. I know, there's plenty of season left, but none of the two-win teams (Richmond, St. Kilda, and Melbourne) and certainly none of the one-win teams (Carlton, Brisbane, and the surprisingly bad Gold Coast Suns) have shown any potential of making any significant charge on the top eight. Keep in mind, however, that last year Richmond left round 14 at 3-10 and won their next nine games (including at Sydney) to sneak in as the eighth seed! After what the Saints did this weekend, anything is possible!

The games this weekend included the expected:
- North Melbourne over Richmond 109-74
- Fremantle over Essendon
- Adelaide beats Gold Coast
- Sydney over Melbourne

...the unexpected:
----Geelong found legs and ran down Collingwood 100-59, an outcome which was only predicted by about 25% of betters.
---- West Coast pulled away in the third and held on on the fourth quarters against Port - IN Adelaide!
---- A very similar situation gave Brisbane its first win, sending Carlton coach Mick Malthouse and his teams into another week of intense media scrutiny.
---- Despite the false claims that it was their best win ever (defeating the supposed "superteam", your crosstown rival Sydney Swans, to start last season is still #1!), coming from behind twice to overwhelm the two-time premiers Hawthorn by ten points.

...and the ludicrous: Western was up by 55 points after scoring the first goal of the second half. They had completely overwhelmed the Saints on all fronts, and led 70-15; the only two goals the Saints had in the first half were flukes, or it would have been 70-3. Suddenly, the Saints came to life - scoring a couple of what looked like token goals - then a couple more - continued to stop the Bulldogs from scoring - stayed aggressive,  and got within two goals (12 points) at three quarter time - even after a pair of quick Western goals increased the lead to 23, St. Kilda held their composure like a champ and kept scoring, catching and passing the Doggies later on to win by seven points. It was the largest second-half comeback ever, the fifth  largest ever, and kept Western from being alone in second at 5-1.

AFL Week Five in review...

Some interesting games this weekend! The last two may have been the most intriguing! 

Port def. Adelaide in the 38th Showdown, and there were stars galore out to perform!  The Power won by 24, and Robbie Gray was named the Outstanding Player, although Chad Wingard and Eddie Betts were among the great performers last night! And Essendon squeaked out an 82-80 victory over lowly St. Kilda, but if professionals can have moral victories, the Saints definitely earned one for this game against the Bombers. The third game Sunday was another Fremantle clinic, a 64-point demolition of quickly-improving Melbourne.

As to the earlier games this weekend, the ones that kept me up all night Friday (!),...
- Collingwood annihilated Carlton by 75 to ruin Blues' coach Mick Malthouse's celebration of his record breaking 715th game...
- Geelong surprised Richmond with a great first half and held on to win by nine...
- Hawthorn showed their championship form by defeating a surprisingly overmatched Kangaroos club 130-70...
- West Coast poured cold water on the flames of the Greater Western Sydney juggernaut, making them look like the youngest franchise again by holding them to one goal over the last three quarters, and won 120-33 (not a typo!)...
- Brisbane took hold of last place by losing badly to fellow zero-win Queensland resident Gold Coast by 64 points.
- And, as mentioned in yesterday's post, the Western Bulldoggies showed they are absolutely REAL, running out to a lead on Sydney early, and then coming back with a game-winning goal late in the fourth after the Swans had come all the way back to take the lead.

Current standings
5-0: Fremantle
4-1: Collingwood, Western Bulldogs
3-2: Hawthorn, West Coast, GWS, Sydney, Adelaide, Port Adelaide, Essendon
2-3: Richmond, Geelong, No. Melbourne, Melbourne
1-4: St. Kilda, Carlton, Gold Coast
0-5: Brisbane Lions.

AFL Week One In Review...

Welcome! Here are the game results from last weekend's Australian Football League games - Week One of the AFL "home-and-away" season:

Richmond 105, Carlton 78 (Season opener in the MCG!)
Melbourne 115, Gold Coast 89 (a big upset but a deserved win!)
Sydney 72, Essendon 60 (in a heavy downpour - Essendon was up 41 in the third)
Collingwood 86, Brisbane 74
Western Bulldogs 97, West Coast Eagles 87 (another upset, but the Eagles' injuries are going to knock 'em down several pegs this season)
GWS 87, St. Kilda 78  (but the Saints played well!)
Adelaide Crows 140, N. Melbourne 63 (the surprise of the round - not that the Crows won, but that they ANNIHILATED the Kangaroos, who never really showed up)
Fremantle 75, Port Adelaide 68 (the GAME of the round - both teams were superb)
Hawthorn 123, Geelong 61 (the showcase of the round: the Hawks are set for a three-peat!)

Here are the records, ladder positions, and ratings following Round One:

Hawthorn Hawks (1-0) #2	87.1
Sydney Swans (1-0) #5	74.5
Port Adelaide Power (0-1) #10	72.1
Adelaide Crows (1-0) #1	70.7
Fremantle Dockers (1-0) #9	69.5
Geelong Cats (0-1) #17	57.9
N Melbourne Kangas (0-1) #18	55.6
West Coast Eagles (0-1) #12	55.6
Richmond Tigers (1-0) #3	55.1
Essendon Bombers (0-1) #13	52.5
Gold Coast Suns (0-1) #15	42.2
Collingwood Magpies (1-0) #6	37.3
Carlton Blues (0-1) #16	36.4
Western Bulldogs (1-0) #7	35.2
GWS Giants (1-0) #8	31.0
Brisbane Lions (0-1) #14	29.9
Melbourne Demons (1-0) #4	26.0
St. Kilda Saints (0-1) #11	11.4

Tonight's the Night! (Gonna be aw-right!)

Here we go! The 2015 Australian Football League kicks off in less than five hours with Carlton v Richmond, two of the oldest teams and a traditional season opener (albeit not always on a Thursday night, which it already is Down Under!). Go to afl.com.au for all your news, scores, video highlights, and whatever else you want on all things footy! 

Here's the round-up of games for Round 1 of the twenty-two game season...

Carlton v Richmond (Richmond favored by 16.5 on line, 12 by our rating system), Thurs Apr 2

Gold Coast @ Melbourne (GC Suns favored big on all fronts), Sat Apr 4
Essendon @ Sydney (Sydney favored by 30-ish over the Bombers), Sat Apr 4
Collingwood @ Brisbane (despite recent records, Brisbane is rightfully favored by a few points here!), Sat Apr 4
West Coast @ Western (in Melbourne, which tells you how old "Western" is! - pundits are split here. West Coast should be better, but have some injuries...), Sat Apr 4

GWS @ St. Kilda (if ever GWS will be favorites on the road, this is it, by about 15), Sun Apr 5
Kangaroos @ Adelaide (great game, potentially. We like North Melbourne to finish higher, but the Adelaide Crows to win here by a goal), Sun Apr 5
Port Adelaide @ Fremantle (met thrice last year, all classic games! Flip a coin, but Freo is favored by 4-5), Sun Apr 5

Geelong @ Hawthorn (the best matchup there is, because of the six-year long "Kennett Curse" that was broken in the prelim finals in 2013 - now, it's safe to pick Hawthorn by 20+!), Mon Apr 6

We'll update on Mondays, both standings and rating systems, but again, follow for yourself on afl.com.au!

AFL predictions from the AFL media

The annual survey of the afl.com.au staff on a wide variety of predictions for the 2015 season - no HUGE surprises, but it'll give you a great feel for the landscape of the upcoming AFL season.

So, for fairness' sake, here are my commesurate forecasts...
TOP EIGHT: Hawthorn - Sydney - North Melbourne - Port Adelaide - Fremantle - Adelaide - Geelong - either Richmond or Gold Coast.
PREMIER: Hawthorn Hawks
RUNNER-UP: Sydney Swans
WOODEN SPOON (last place): St. Kilda
MOVING UP: N. Melbourne, GWS
SET TO FALL: Carlton
Brownlow Medal ("mvp"): Nat Fyfe (Fremantle)
Coleman Medal (most goals): Jarryd Roughhead (Hawthorn)
NAB AFL Rising Star: Honestly? I don't know.
Coach of the Year: Alistair Clarkston (Hawthorn)
Recruit of the Year: Mitch Clark (Geelong)
Surprise All-Australian: Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs)
Headline you'll see: Third time's the charm! Hawthorn v Sydney for the title!
Headline you WON'T see: All the stars make it through the season injury-free!
Everyone will be talking about: The race for the Brownlow - Ablett, Fyfe, Coleman, Franklin, Dangerfield...
How many goals will Lance Franklin kick? 60 - he'll be in the Coleman race!
Which new coach will win the most game? Adelaide's new coach, Phil Walsh
Will Patrick Dangerfield stay at Adelaide? They all say no, but I hope he does!

So, following the 'NAB Preseason', here are our 2015 AFL predictions!

As the last nine games of the pre-season conclude this weekend with some of the traditional crosstown rivalries, we've done a simulation of the upcoming season from what we've seen so far. Here are the results, with checkpoints throughout the projected 2015 season:

After April (4 games in) -

4-0) ADELAIDE
3-1) HAWTHORN, NORTH, PORT, RICHMOND, GWS, BRISBANE
2-2) SYDNEY, GEELONG, GOLD COAST, ESSENDON, FREMANTLE
1-3) WEST COAST, COLLINGWOOD, CARLTON, WESTERN
0-4) MELBOURNE, ST KILDA

Odd to see the Crows alone on top, but they've got an easy April to start the season.

Halfway through (after round 10, right before the byes) -

9-1) HAWTHORN, PORT ADELAIDE
7-2-1) ADELAIDE
7-3) SYDNEY,  NORTH MELBOURNE
6-4) GOLD COAST, FREMANTLE, RICHMOND
5-4-1) GWS
5-5) ESSENDON, GEELONG
4-6) WESTERN, BRISBANE
3-7) WEST COAST
2-8) COLLINGWOOD, CARLTON, MELBOURNE
0-10) ST KILDA

Now the cream will start to rise...Port and the Hawks occupy the top two spots, and six of last year's top eight are there again, joined by the Crows and Suns. Note Geelong 5-5, West Coast at 3-7, the Magpies with just 2 wins, and the Saints on a ten game losing streak.

After sixteen rounds, with just seven games to go...

14-1) HAWTHORN
12-3) PORT, NORTH
11-4) SYDNEY
10-4-1) ADELAIDE
9-6) FREMANTLE, RICHMOND, GOLD COAST
So, the top eight are unchanged from the last list...and a gap to...
7-7-1) GWS
7-8) GEELONG, ESSENDON, WESTERN
5-10) WEST COAST
4-11) BRISBANE, COLLINGWOOD
3-12) CARLTON, MELBOURNE
2-13) ST KILDA

And finally, our forecast for the final records for the 2015 season:
1. Hawthorn Hawks (19-3)
2. Sydney Swans (18-4)
3. North Melbourne Kangaroos (18-4)
4. Port Adelaide Power (15-7)
5. Fremantle Dockers (15-7)
6. Adelaide Crows (14-7-1)
7. Geelong Cats (13-9)
8/9. Richmond/Gold Coast (12-10)!!!
10. Essendon Bombers (11-11)
11. GWS Giants (10-11-1)
12. Western Bulldogs (9-12-1)
13. West Coast Eagles (8-14)
14. Collingwood Magpies (7-15)
15. Brisbane Lions (6-15-1)
16. Melbourne Demons (5-17)
17. Carlton Blues (3-19)
18. St. Kilda Saints (2-20)

Reviewing these, a few points...the top two are unchanged from last year, and we expect a repeat of last year's Grand Final participants...Port will fade, Freo will charge, but the percentage will keep the Power in the top four for the double chance during finals...Geelong and Sydney will both end the season well, our prediction suggesting that the Cats will end on a 7 of 8 run, and the Swans will win their last ten... We see Richmond and Gold Coast as a flat footed tie, which means ,argins of victory (and defeat!) will be critical all year for them!... Hard to fault the Dons if they don't make finals after the distractions...GWS should make another four win jump, and don't be shocked if it's more... Continuing to fall, West Coast and Collingwood and Carlton and St. Kilda, while Melbourne and Brisbane and Western will improve. Again, we see another Hawthorn/Sydney GF, and just as we won't stick our neck out for 8th, we also won't for first! Right now, we'd take the defenders...

The latest down under on all fronts!

The top all-footy news show in Australia, Footy Feed, looks like it's the best and quickest way to catch you up to speed on all the wild and varied goings-on in the AFL on and off the field...strike that: off the field. The lingering Essendon supplements scandal, the revelation early in the week about the banned painkiller in Fremantle star Ryan Crowley's system last September, the strangely insubstantial seeming betting scandal involving Western Bulldogs Lachie Hunter, and the weird situation involving the Melbourne Demons' Heretier Lumumba questioning the AFL about the doping rules as they might be applied to (of all things) passive marijuana exposure due to his connection with Rastafarianism during his time in the Caribbean.

It's been a wild few weeks in Australia! (And it's only the pre-season...excuse me: the "NAB pre-season"!)

ON the field, there were three games Thursday and Friday VERY much worth watching: 

1) Essendon's second stringers came up big against Melbourne Friday, stealing an errant pass to score an uncontested goal that won the game, 77-75. (And you don't think it meant something to those 'kids'? Watch their celebration at the end of the video!) Both teams look like they're heading the right direction.

2) Speaking of which, my two favorite Queensland teams, Gold Coast and the Brisbane Lions, played to a 63-all tie (a rare but not ridiculous occurrence - it happens once or twice a year), with both teams looking up and down, mostly good but also missing a few key bodies. (Gold Coast has played all pre-season without two-time MVP - that is, Brownlow Medal winner - Gary Ablett Jr, as they played the last eight games of 2014 when they fell out of finals. With him, the Suns figure to be favorites to make at least the top 8, maybe even the top 4.)

3) And on Thursday night, Hawthorn and Saint Kilda played a highly uncompetitive game, but it was just as entertaining because it was an absolute clinic by the two-time defending champions in a 145-39 spanking of last year's "wooden spoon" winners. Hard not to tab Hawthorn as the pre-season favorites after their pre-season performance.

Aussie round up - Preseason week 2

So, here's a quick wrap up of the weekend's pre-season games down under...

Fremantle defeated Melbourne, 61-43, in a rather unspectacular game where each team had their "moments" to build on. (Fremantle should end up being a much stronger team than the Demons as the season wears on.)

The Brisbane Lions look fantastic, smashing the Grand Finalist Sydney Swans by a score of 75-39 on Friday. Admittedly, it was the Swans' first game and the second for the Lions, but there were still some amazing flashes of growth and improvement from the 7-win Lions from last year!

Greater Western Sydney also looked great, defeating the Gold Coast Suns by 36 points. GC rested most of their stars but still, the Giants were really on top of things Saturday!

The match everyone had been waiting to see went exactly as everyone had feared... St. Kilda rolled over the imposters wearing the Essendon Bombers uniforms, in some cases with the highest numbers in footy history (you never see numbers in the 70s on the field!), as they were playing their "top-up" players while virtually the entire team - every man who was on the Dons in 2012, when the supplement scandal was taking place - was on probable suspension through the pre-season. With the 101-51 score, we learned virtually nothing about St. Kilda, and literally nothing about Essendon.

Port Adelaide beat the West Coast Eagles by the substantial score of 89-49, but the real story was yet another injury to a key Eagle player, meaning West Coast is looking at a depleted roster even before the start of the real season.

Finally, the game that I got to hear Saturday night (their Sunday afternoon) was the best game of the pre-season so far, with a strong Hawthorn team falling to an even stronger team from North Melbourne, looking all the while like a Grand Final contender after being a surprise semi-finalist last year! 38-year old Brent Harvey, the oldest in the league, continues to look like a superstar, and both teams are in midseason form already!

It's also becoming clear that the new enforcement of the tackling rule - no more question as to whether a man with the ball has been tackled or got rid of the ball in time: it's now a tackle every time! - will benefit those teams who are already good tacklers, and avoid being tackled themselves! Who might that be? Only the three teams who have already shown they were loaded for bear this season and were ready to move up the ranks: Brisbane, GWS, and Gold Coast. Look out for those three as possible up'n'comers for finals this year!

Injuries are not just a stateside football thing...

Three days into the Aussie Rules pre-season, we've already had two major knee injuries that threaten to end the season for two of our best and brightest: Tom Libertore of the Western Bulldogs blew an ACL in their game last night against Richmond, while the West Coast Eagles confirmed that they've lost defender and 2014 best-and-fairest Eric Mackenzie with a similar injury for an undetermined amount of time after defeating Carlton on Friday night.

Pre-season is a terrible dilemma for coaches of all sports: how do you prepare your team for the "real" season without endangering your still-out-of-condition athletes? They've got to play, or they won't get into game readiness - even the players tell you that - but if they're out of shape, are they safe to play? ACL injuries are notoriously fickle occurrences anyway: these could have happened to any athlete at virtually any time, and Mackenzie's injury in particular was almost ludicrous in its lack of contact. Perhaps it's simple coincidence that these two injuries to star players happened in the first three days of pre-season...but it makes you think.

(And here are the highlights from Friday and Saturday's games - West Coast v Carlton on Friday, Brisbane edging St. Kilda on Saturday afternoon, as well as the Richmond / Western Bulldog game.

And here's the way the FF rating system will start the pre-season...

Now, it needs to be said that pre-season games are NOT the same as regular or post season games: the teams aren't nearly as interested as usual in winning the game at hand, but rather developing the best team in order to win the games "that count". But there will be some indications during the NAB Challenge from February 26 through the end of March, indications that will help show how certain young players are developing, how new 'employees' fit in with the rest of their new teammates, what the needs are that may or may not have been apparent until the entire team's on the field together, how a new coach or system works in a particular situation, how age or injury is affecting key players, and so forth. For that reason, we at Following Football reserve the right to adjust ratings to a small extent to compensate for those variances. (And we'll do the same thing for American football in the summer.)

Having said that, here's our starting point for the 2015 Australian Football League Season, and some initial predictions about the direction those numbers might move:

Hawthorn Hawks - 81.6 ..........The defenders didn't hurt themselves this summer! (up)
Sydney Swans - 77.7..................Trade issues, devastating loss in GF could hurt. (down)

Port Adelaide Power - 71.7......A team on the rise who got a new great player. (up!).
Fremantle Dockers - 70.3.......Made some positive moves and some not so good. (<--->).

Adelaide Crows - 63.4..............Great new players but 5th? With a new coach? (down).
N. Melbourne Kangaroos - 62.8...Good moves, but their best player's 37 years old.... (<---->).
West Coast Eagles- 62.3...........We say this every year, but then they've fallen short. (<---->)
Geelong Cats - 61.8...................Is this the year they come back to the pack? Maybe. (<-->)

Richmond Tigers - 55.1...........Richmond's rated ninth right now - as always! (<----->)
Essendon Bombers - 53.7.......How can the ASADA scandal NOT hurt them? (down)

Gold Coast Suns - 43.9............With Gary Ablett Jr. healthy, they were already a finals team. (up!)
Carlton Blues - 40.7.................The Blues lost top player but mediocre was ceiling. (<--->)
Collingwood Magpies - 40.2..Hard to imagine most popular team this far down. (<--->)

Western Bulldogs - 31.4...........Lots of new talentplus improving youngsters from '14. (up!)
Brisbane Lions - 26.4..............Offseason was a HUGE positive for the Lions! (up)
GWS Giants - 26.3....................See Bulldogs comment, and copy for the next 3 years! (up)

Melbourne Demons - 20.2......Lots of new blood, but has the culture of losing changed? (up?)
St. Kilda Saints - 10.5...............This is awfully low; yet somehow, the Saints may hit it. (<--->)

Here's the hard part: there are seven ups and three downs, but it's a net zero system, meaning whenever one team goes up a point, another team goes DOWN a point, so that the total rating is always 50 points per team (900.0). SO...just assume like all predictions, this one's not entirely accurate! (Besides, it'll change as pre-season moves on.)

Go to www.afl.com.au for all your AFL information!!

Reposting the AFL Comparison page WITH LINKS to each of the individual articles. (You're welcome.)

Over the course of the next week or two, we'll share with you American football lovers each of the eighteen AFL teams, and who the best professional club in American sports is. This will give you a basis of comparison to understand the dynamics of Australian Footy teams, and perhaps how to choose your new favorite Aussie club to root for!

Here's a preview of how the teams line up with their American counterparts...

The ADELAIDE Crows = the New York Knicks (of the NBA) - link here! 
The BRISBANE Lions = the Los Angeles Lakers (of the NBA) - link here! 
The CARLTON Blues = the Chicago Bears (of the NFL) - link to Carlton here! 
The COLLINGWOOD Magpies = the New York Yankees (of MLB) - link here! 
The ESSENDON Bombers = the Oakland Athletics (of MLB) - link to Essendon here! 
The FREMANTLE Dockers = the New Jersey Devils (of the NHL) - link here! 
The GEELONG Cats = the New England Patriots (of the NFL) - link here! 
The GOLD COAST Suns = the Cleveland Cavaliers (of the NBA) - link here! 
The GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY Giants = the Minnesota Timberwolves (of the NBA) - link to GWS here! 
The HAWTHORN Hawks = the San Antonio Spurs (of the NBA) - link here!
The MELBOURNE Demons = the Oakland Raiders (of the NFL) - link here! 
The NORTH MELBOURNE Kangaroos = The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (of MLB) - link! 
The PORT ADELAIDE Power = the Seattle Seahawks (of the NFL) - link!
The RICHMOND Tigers = the San Diego Chargers (of the NFL) - link to Richmond here! 
The ST. KILDA Saints = the New York Jets (of the NFL) - link here! 
The SYDNEY Swans = the Boston Red Sox (of MLB) - link to Sydney Swans here! 
The WEST COAST Eagles = the Dallas Cowboys (of the NFL) - link here! 
The WESTERN Bulldogs = the Sacramento Kings (of the NBA) - link here! 

As we progress through each club and its American doppelganger, we hope you'll come to understand more about the particular teams that represent the great sport of footy in Australia and around the world. Before the season starts next March, you'll get a firm background in the sport - and we'll provide content on the AFL page to help novices understand the sport.

AFL Comparison #15: St. Kilda Saints

Saint Kilda is a mess. But what else is new? One of the original Melbourne teams, they were also the original "whipping boy" for early footy teams of the late 19th century, losing games by ridiculous scores like 59-2 and 94-3 in that first "official" season of the Victorian Football League (they went 0-14 that first year). They've had only marginal success over the years, winning exactly one premiership over their 117 seasons of footy, back in 1966, when (after finishing second to Collingwood during the regular "home-and-away" season AND losing to them in the prelims, the Saints made their way back through to the Grand Final, where they managed to defeat Collingwood by one point, 74-73. 

They've had more recent chances, most famously in 2010, when they actually tied Collingwood in the Grand Final at 68, only to lose the replay of the game a week later by 56 points (no such thing as "overtime" I guess, even when 100,016 people pay big money to see a champion crowned... 

Nowadays, the Saints have rapidly fallen on hard times yet again, dropping all the way to the "wooden spoon" this year for the worst record in the AFL (actually tied with Melbourne, but their scoring percentage was worse, which is very important in footy!). Beyond that, they're not even sure where they want to be based: a new facility in Belvedere Park, their old home back down the road in the Linton St Oval, or their training and admin facility in Seaford; plus having Wellington, New Zealand, as their "home away from home", where they're contractually obligated (and more than willing) to play two games a year as a 'home' team.

Who in the United States sporting world is that screwed up?

Their American counterpart: the New York Jets

Ah, the glorious New York Jets!  Home of Mark Sanchez and the "butt fumble", home of the quiet and refined coach Rex Ryan, home of the glorious championship history that is...er... well, actually, they've only one one title, back in 1969, but because of Broadway Joe Namath's prediction and antics (and, frankly, the overconfidence of the Baltimore Colts, the NFL champ forced to play the upstart AFL Jets in Super Bowl III), it's remembered. Oh, BOY, is it remembered!

Like the Saints, a recent flirt with not only competence but quality fell by the wayside, and they're now 1-6 and sinking fast as the Patriots start to remember who they are. Like the Saints, they live off their one title from the sixties. Like the Saints, they're not even sure where they're from (what part of New York state is the Meadowlands in, again?), and like the Saints, they have revered stars who fail to achieve on their team.

Don't bet on which team will win a title first. You won't live that long to collect...