Speaking of college football, how about a few early predictions?

While here at Following Football:ACNC we don't rank our teams early so as not to bias ourselves against what we see, there's nothing to stop us from guessing how things are going to turn out! So, holding back the right to adjust these predictions as circumstances warrant until the season actually starts in September, here are some thoughts as they pertain to the actual conference races this fall...

Atlantic Coast Conference:
- The winner of the Florida St @ Clemson game wins the ACC title. (We bet Clemson.)
- Louisville 3rd and NC St 4th in the Atlantic; everyone else is putrid.
- Flip a coin between Miami, Georgia Tech, and Va-Tech for the Coastal crown...
-...we're taking Miami in an upset right now.
- Duke will still be good; just not AS good. 4th place. 
- Since UNC goes TO Pitt, we'll take Pitt for 5th and the Tar Heels 6th. 
- It'll be Al Golden's last year at Virginia, as they finish 7th in the Coastal division.

The B1G (the Big Ten, which of course has 14 teams):
- Ohio State is as good as they say. Undefeated season going into the CFP.
- Michigan State would be champs except for the Buckeyes.
- Penn St gets the Wolverines at home, so they get 3rd and Harbaugh gets 4th.
- The rest of the division is bad. Take Rutgers, Maryland, and Indiana in that order.
- Take Minnesota for the West Division! They get BOTH Wisc and Neb at home!
- Wisconsin will be ready to pounce on another division crown if the Gophers fail.
- Nebraska third, and nobody close behind them.
(But plan on Iowa, NW, Illinois, and terrible Purdue if you have to.)

The XII (the Big Twelve, which of course has 10 teams):
- TCU all the way, including a pounding of Baylor in Fort Worth and a trip to the CFP.
- The rest of the real class in the XII is Baylor and OU, who we see 2nd and 3rd.
- There's a logjam for mediocrity, which we're deciphering as Texas, K-St, OSU, and WVU.
- The bottom of the conference is still poor. Tech 8th, ISU 9th, KU 10th.

The Pac-12 Conference:
- Two tight races at the top: we'll flip a coin down south and say UCLA has the slightly easier road.
- Up north, we've a hunch that it's finally Stanford's year to get through OU to the CFP!
- The four other good teams in the conference are Arizona, Utah, Cal, and ASU. In that order.
- UW might join them, but let's see them against Boise St first. If they win there, then yes.
- Wazzu and Oregon St may have some chances to at least go to a bowl.
- Colorado definitely does NOT.

The Southeastern Conference:
- We're staying with 'Bama until they prove us wrong. Division, conference, CFP.
-...but LSU and Auburn are good choices, too, should "In Saban we trust" falter.
- 4th/5th is tight between Ole Miss and Arkansas; their game is in Mississippi, so we take the Rebels.
- 6th/7th would be 1st/2nd in most conferences. Here, it's placing Miss St in the cellar because A&M wins in Texas.
- Georgia's the only team in the Eastern Division that would have a chance in the West.
- The other six will go winless against the West. Book it!
- Vanderbilt will be last. But I'd prefer to school there than any of the other SEC schools.
- Spots 2-6 may be a five way tie at 3-5, but we'll say: UK, Mizzou, USC, FLA, and UT.

So to recap: The College Football Playoff should be TCU, Ohio St, Stanford, and 'Bama.
The Power Five Bottom Five (we're splitting it up this year!) may start with Vandy, Kansas, Colorado, Purdue, and Wake Forest. The Group of Five conferences are next.

How do you maintain rivalries in an era of bloated conferences?

This also comes from Dr. Saturday, and it's a direct result of the ridiculous size of the conferences in college football today. The ACC, for reference, now has fourteen teams in two divisions, which means that teams in the opposite division (even longtime rivals who have been split apart) play each other at most every OTHER year, so they come to your campus every FOUR (or more?) years. Here's a novel solution for that from the state of North Carolina, right on the dividing line of the Atlantic Coast Conference...

North Carolina and Wake Forest, two ACC rivals, took an interesting approach to filling a slot in their non-conference schedules for 2019 and 2021.

Instead of looking outside the ACC, the two programs will square off in non-conference games – one at Wake Forest on September 14, 2019, and one at UNC on September 25, 2021. Because of the ACC’s scheduling arrangements, the two teams were not scheduled to play one another in those seasons. Now they will, but the game “will not factor into the ACC standings.”

“This is a unique opportunity to play a regional rival in years that fall outside the normal conference rotation,” UNC athletic director Bubba Cunningham said. “We have a long history with Wake Forest that has historical value and will generate interest within our fans.”

According to a release from UNC, this home-and-home arrangement is “the first time two members of a Power Five conference have agreed to play each other in a football series originally scheduled as non-conference games.”

North Carolina and Wake Forest have a rivalry that spans more than 100 years. In 105 meetings, the Tar Heels lead the series 68-35-2. The two teams played one another every year from 1944-2004 but now play on an infrequent basis due to the rotating schedule (which is set through 2024) stemming from the conference’s expansion to 14 teams (UNC and Wake are in different divisions).

This agreement also satisfies the ACC’s requirement of each program scheduling at least one power five team in its non-conference slate.

The two programs will meet in conference matchups in 2015 and 2022

The best and worst games of the year in college football

Sports Illustrated does a tremendous job of compiling their list of the 25 best and ten worst games of the FBS season (thereby excluding Savannah State, Davidson, Columbia, and other infamous 1-AA programs from the latter list, mercifully).

In the top 25, the obvious winner is indeed the most pivotal game of the regular season: Baylor 61, TCU 58, although the national championship game and both semifinals made the list as well. Some of my favorite games of the season show up as well, like the East Carolina unrealistically surprising conference championship over UCF, the WILD Western Kentucky/Central Michigan Bahamas Bowl (and WKU's 67-66 upset of Marshall), the Cal/Wazzu statistical menagerie, Arizona's Hail Mary over Cal and Arizona State's over USC, and Michigan State's comeback over Baylor

Meanwhile, there's also no argument with the "winner" of the Bottom Ten, a game I was "blessed" to have seen all five quarters of: Wake Forest 6, Virginia Tech 3. Somehow, the only team that defeated the eventual national champions (IN COLUMBUS, no less) also lost to the worst-ranked Power Five conference team in the country. An impressive double, Hokies! The list also includes both of Florida's most horrific performances, the Arkansas demolition of Texas in the bowl game where only one team showed up; the Georgia Tech rout of Pitt where the Panthers gave up five fumbles in their first thirteen plays; and the ridiculous Michigan/Northwestern game in which the rain added to the pathetic showing.

Comparing the final rankings...

It's always interesting to compare opinions, especially when the entire point of sports is to enjoy the competition between your guys and their guys and in doing so, comparing the two teams - and in the context of an entire season, comparing your guys to a slough of "their guys" and deciding how far up the ladder your guys are. (Ladies: "guys" is meant as a unisex term here.)

So, with that in mind, here's a list based on the Following Football #1-128 tiered ranking system that includes the final poll from the AP writers, the Sagaring rating system (if you need a primer in the Sagarin system, let me know!), the Massey Index (which compares and compiles 91 different computer and human ranking systems and then provides us with (for lack of a better term) a 'consensus' result), and the Superlist, which combines the six known meta-lists and gives us a different kind of consensus!

(The Sagarin rating and rank are in red simply to make the two connect visually better. The actual Sagarin rankings include the FCS teams: Eastern Michigan is really #208 in the country, out of 252! Also, the letters on the Massey rankings are tiers, just like FF uses: while these come from our hand, they're denoting the natural breaks in the totals - where there's a big gap between schools and where the groupings are.)

				Final		Final	Final	Final
Final			Final	Sagarin		Massey	Superlist	AP
Ranking	Team	Conf	Record	rating		Ranking	Ranking	rank
A1	Ohio St	b10	14-1	100.81	1	A1	1	1
A2	Oregon	pac	13-2	95.71	4	A2	2	2
A3	Alabama	sec	12-2	96.83	3	A3	3	4
A4	Florida St	acc	13-1	84.86	16	B7	6	5T
A5	TCU	b12	12-1	99.58	2	A4	4	3
B06	Michigan St	b10	11-2	93.36	6	B+5	5	5T
B07	Baylor	b12	11-2	90.57	7	B8	8	7
B08	Georgia Tech	acc	11-3	87.42	12	C09	11	8
B09	Mississippi St	sec	10-3	89.19	9	C12	14	11
B10	Georgia	sec	10-3	95.13	5	B6	7	9
B11	UCLA	pac	10-3	84.71	17	C11	9	10
C12	Ole Miss	sec	9-4	89.82	8	C10	10	17
C13	Missouri	sec	11-3	85.06	15	D13	13	14
C14	Kansas St	b12	9-4	84.48	19	E20	24	18
C15	Clemson	acc	10-3	87.03	13	D15	12	15
C16	Wisconsin	b10	11-3	83.48	21	D14	15	13
C17	Auburn	sec	8-5	88.40	11	E16	17	22
D18	Boise St	mw	12-2	77.43	36	E17	19	16
D19	Arizona St	pac	10-3	81.96	25	E19	16	12
D20	USC	pac	9-4	84.19	20	E18	18	20
D21	Arizona	pac	10-4	77.76	33	E22	20	19
D22	LSU	sec	8-5	85.53	14	F25	26
D23	Utah	pac	9-4	82.75	23	F26	23	21
E24	Texas A&M	sec	8-5	82.82	22	G29	27
E25	Stanford	pac	8-5	84.61	18	F24	22
E26	Arkansas	sec	7-6	88.48	10	F23	21
E27	Nebraska	b10	9-4	81.09	29	G28	30
E28	Oklahoma	b12	8-5	81.47	27	G30	31
E29	Louisville	acc	9-4	80.60	30	G27	28	24
E30	Marshall	cusa	13-1	82.36	24	E21	25	23
E31	Notre Dame	ind	8-5	79.83	31	H+32	32
E32	Minnesota	b10	8-5	76.17	37	H34	35
E33	Duke	acc	9-4	74.99	41	I40	40
F34	Florida	sec	7-5	81.48	26	H+31	29
F35	South Carolina	sec	7-6	77.56	35	I39	38
F36	Colorado St	mw	10-3	69.51	60	I38	37
F37	Memphis	aac	10-3	76.11	38	H33	34	25
G38	West Virginia	b12	7-6	78.53	32	I+36	36
G39	Washington	pac	8-6	74.34	43	J+43	39
G40	Cincinnati	aac	8-4	71.48	55	J46	53
G41	Miami-FL	acc	6-7	75.08	40	K49	51
G42	Utah St	mw	10-4	72.70	49	J+41	45
H43	North Carolina St	acc	8-5	73.21	45	J+42	42
H44	Maryland	b10	7-6	72.39	52	K54	48
H45	Tennessee	sec	7-6	81.39	28	H35	33
H46	Northern Illinois	mac	11-3	68.08	65	K53	54
H47	Rutgers	b10	8-5	70.53	59	J47	41
H48	Penn St	b10	7-6	73.55	44	K55	49
H49	Air Force	mw	10-3	67.79	69	J45	47
I50	Texas	b12	6-7	72.42	51	K51	52
I51	Oklahoma St	b12	7-6	72.46	50	K50	44
I52	Iowa	b10	7-6	73.13	46	L+57	56
I53	Boston College	acc	7-6	74.36	42	J48	50
I54	Kentucky	sec	5-7	73.04	47	M70	64
J55	Central Florida	aac	9-4	71.18	56	K56	61
J56	East Carolina	aac	8-5	69.44	62	L62	69
J57	BYU	ind	8-5	71.61	53	K52	55
J58	Louisiana Tech	cusa	9-5	77.57	34	I37	46
J59	Virginia Tech	acc	7-6	75.30	39	J44	43
J60	Navy	ind	8-5	68.05	66	L+58	57
K61	North Carolina	acc	6-7	67.60	70	M69	63
K62	Georgia Southern	sun	9-3	69.47	61	L59	62
K63	UL-Lafayette	sun	9-4	66.68	71	M66	67
K64	Western Kentucky	cusa	8-5	66.24	73	L64	70
Final			Final	Sagarin		Massey	Superlist
Ranking	Team	Conf	Record	rating		Ranking	Ranking
K65	California	pac	5-7	71.55	54	M65	58
K66	Oregon St	pac	5-7	66.05	75	N76	71
K67	Michigan	b10	5-7	70.70	58	L63	59
L68	Western Michigan	mac	8-5	64.84	80	N75	78
L69	Houston	aac	8-5	67.89	68	M-71	75
L70	Pitt	acc	6-7	70.86	57	M68	72
L71	Illinois	b10	6-7	65.10	77	N+73	73
L72	Nevada	mw	7-6	64.28	81	N+74	74
L73	Toledo	mac	9-4	68.01	67	L61	65
M74	Texas Tech	b12	4-8	66.48	72	O+78	77
M75	Virginia	acc	5-7	72.79	48	L60	60
M76	Rice	cusa	8-5	68.39	64	M67	66
M77	San Diego St	mw	7-6	64.12	82	N-77	79
M78	Northwestern	b10	5-7	69.29	63	M-72	68
N79	Temple	aac	6-6	65.00	79	O81	83
N80	Bowling Green	mac	8-6	57.13	98	P89	90
N81	Arkansas St	sun	7-6	65.04	78	P+83	86
N82	Central Michigan	mac	7-6	62.07	87	P86	88
O83	Fresno St	mw	6-8	59.13	92	P88	85
O84	UTEP	cusa	7-6	61.44	89	O82	80
O85	UAB	cusa	6-6	65.30	76	O+79	82
O86	Washington St	pac	3-9	66.18	74	O80	76
O87	Texas St	sun	7-5	58.75	93	P90	92
O88	Appalachian St	sun	7-5	61.82	88	P87	95
O89	Kansas	b12	3-9	58.31	94	Q95	91
O90	Syracuse	acc	3-9	62.97	84	P91	87
O91	South Alabama	sun	6-7	55.89	104	Q96	98
P92	Purdue	b10	4-8	62.34	86	Q94	94
P93	Ohio	mac	6-6	54.80	107	R099	104
P94	Middle Tennessee	cusa	6-6	60.79	91	P+84	84
P95	Colorado	pac	2-10	62.93	85	Q+93	93
P96	Iowa St	b12	2-10	61.38	90	R+97	96
Q097	UL-Monroe	sun	4-8	55.96	103	S107	108
Q098	Ball St	mac	5-7	57.68	96	R102	105
Q099	Wyoming	mw	4-8	56.46	102	R098	97
Q100	Buffalo	mac	5-6	53.54	110	S108	114
Q101	Wake Forest	acc	3-9	56.50	101	S+103	102
Q102	Indiana	b10	3-9	64.04	83	P+85	81
R103	Hawai'i	mw	4-9	56.78	100	S106	101
R104	Old Dominion	cusa	6-6	58.08	95	Q+92	89
R105	South Florida	aac	4-8	52.68	114	S109	110
R106	New Mexico	mw	4-8	55.18	105	R101	99
R107	Vanderbilt	sec	3-9	57.14	97	R100	100
R108	FIU	cusa	4-8	56.99	99	S104	106
S109	Florida Atlantic	cusa	3-9	53.75	109	T+112	111
S110	Akron	mac	5-7	54.86	106	S110	112
S111	Tulane	aac	3-9	53.29	112	T+111	107
S112	Army	ind	4-8	51.59	117	T116	116
S113	North Texas	cusa	4-8	52.95	113	T115	113
S114	Southern Miss	cusa	3-9	53.54	111	T113	115
T115	San Jose St	mw	3-9	52.04	115	T114	109
T116	UT-San Antonio	sun	4-7	54.31	108	S105	103
T117	Miami-OH	mac	2-10	50.26	118	U120	121
T118	Troy	sun	3-9	46.10	123	U122	122
T119	Tulsa	aac	2-10	48.43	119	U118	118
T120	UNLV	mw	2-11	46.94	121	U121	119
U121	Kent St	mac	2-9	47.47	120	U119	120
U122	U Massachusetts	mac	3-9	51.69	116	U117	117
U123	U Conn	aac	2-10	44.70	125	V+123	123
U124	Idaho	sun	1-10	46.66	122	V125	127
U125	Eastern Michigan	mac	2-10	38.77	128	V126	126
U126	SMU	aac	1-11	39.15	127	V124	124
V127	New Mexico St	sun	2-10	45.20	124	V127	125
V128	Georgia St	sun	1-11	41.00	126	V-128	128

A few interesting things to notice:  Yes, Ohio State gets #1 in all systems, but not really unanimously. TCU actually had the highest Sagarin rating by two full points before the Buckeye beatdown on Oregon's finest...Florida State's position is as uncertain as ever: we still have them fourth, since we had them top four and in the playoff before it started; but some organizations drop them out of the top four, and in fact their rankings range from 4 down to 16!...Michigan State's in the top six in every system. Big month for the B1G!...Lotta love for Marshall in the final analysis - top 25 in all set-ups except ours...Also hard to believe the last place team in a division could be in the top 25, but Arkansas' annihilation of Texas and the last few games of their season is pushing their stock up into the high twenties!...Florida, Tennessee, Virginia Tech, and Louisiana Tech are all getting much higher rankings from all of the other systems than we gave them: I guess we're going to have to take another look, aren't we?...Certain combinations you tend to look for automatically, right? Nebraska finished ahead of Oklahoma across the board; Michigan is generally ahead of their directional schools, especially up-and-coming Western Michigan...Speaking of Broncos, how about Boise State, carrying the banner for the small programs once again - the first non-power conference team to win three BCS/New Year's Six games (only one to PLAY in that many, too!)...If this really was Alabama-Birmingham's last year of football, they fared commendably: 6-6, with every ranking between 76 and 85....The dis-honor of the lowest Power Conference team goes to Wake Forest, although within the FF rankings, Vanderbilt fell below the Demon Deacons....And, as always, the Bottom Twelve or so are set in concrete, with virtually identical membership from all four rating systems (Army gets its nose in twelfth from the bottom on the Sagarin scale) - Miami - OH, Troy, Tulsa, UNLV, Kent St, UMass, UConn, Idaho, Eastern Michigane, SMU, New Mexico St, and last place holder, Georgia St. A lack of sincerity in our congratulations to ALL of you!