AFL update

Still the only obloid game on the planet (not counting rugby), here's an update on the world of Australian Rules Football...

North Melbourne stayed unbeaten at 8-0 with a pair of close wins over eminently beatable teams; many think the Kangaroos are ripe for the taking, though it's unlikely to be the surprising 4-4 Carlton Blues who do that. Not particularly a Blues fan, but it would be fun to see this young team doing it with defense and hustle take down the undefeated leaders! Geelong sits at 7-1, cruising just one game behind, having pulled away from 8th place Adelaide down the stretch. Patrick Dangerfield has been a stellar addition to their midfield, moving them from out of the playoffs last year to a Grand Finals prospect in 2016. The two Opera House teams, Sydney and Greater Western Sydney (GWS), share the 6-2 spots on the ladder in 3rd and 4th, followed by the similarly 6-2 Western Bulldogs and the defenders, the Hawthorn Hawks, trailing on point percentage. Rounding out the top eight are the West Coast Eagles, alone at 5-3, and the Adelaide Crows, ahead of three other teams on percentage at 4-4. If that's not the list for the eight finals teams, I'll eat my non-existent hat! They're far and away the better of the eighteen teams, still to be discussed.

In that 4-4 pack are Carlton, mentioned above, Port Adelaide, winning games against who they should beat; and the Melbourne Demons, who have been building towards this for a couple of years. Are they ready for finals? I think it'll be one year. Below them, the fast falling Gold Coast Suns, losers of five straight, and the disappointing Collingwood Magpies, who nevertheless have OUR interest as they removed their star player, Travis Cloke, several weeks ago, in favor of a rookie from (gasp!) AMERICA named Mason Cox, who has been nothing short of impressive and improving weekly. At 2-6 sit two potentially dangerous teams: Saint Kilda, losers to good teams by close margins, and Richmond, who upset Sydney on a goal after the siren (if you catch a longish kick, called a "mark", you get to dispose of the ball unimpeded - the advantage of a mark! - even if the siren's sounded; since it's unimpeded, it's a chance to kick a goal and win if you're behind by less than a goal beforehand). Some are saying it's the "beginning of something big!" because they ran off late season winning streaks before; I don't think so. The bottom three all look terrible, and for different reasons: Brisbane Lions, which got hammered each of the last three weeks and has the coach on figurative suicide watch; Essendon Bombers, who this year are a ragtag collection of half regulars and half replacement players for reasons we've talked bout more than enough; and the 0-8 Fremantle Dockers, last year's minor premiers, who have finally started looking competitive for large chunks of games (they even led Hawthorn at the half before getting annihilated in the third quarter).

On the player of the year front, we actually have a FORWARD leading for the first time in my memory - usually, the midfielders get all the glory, but after taking the end of the season off to recover from mental health issues, Lance Franklin from Sydney is aiming for 100 goals - and he may make it! It hasn't been done for eight years, since ... well, since he did it at Hawthorn in 2008!
Here's the current leaderboard after eight rounds:

Lance Franklin					SYD		148
Patrick Dangerfield					GEEL		146
Luke Parker					SYD		126
Jarrad Waite					NMK		101
Tom J Lynch					GCS		98
Joel Selwood					GEEL		97
Dan Hannebury					SYD		92
Max Gawn					MEL		92
Lachie Hunter					WB		90
Rory Sloane					ADE		90

Dangerfield has been nothing short of remarkable; Parker and Hannebury are getting Buddy Franklin the ball in record numbers;and it's good to see Max Gawn and Tom J Lynch getting the kind of credit they have deserved for awhile now!

As for my "tipping" record? Well, I'm doing about normal for me right now; I'm sitting in the top 1000 or so consistently (out of 188,000 bettors at the moment), and within the GWS campaign, I've been in the top ten most of the season and currently sit eighth again (I was up to second at one point...). 

What would YOU have done?

Here's the story from AFL.com.au about the pre-season closer last week where Richmond chose to play 15 (rather than 18) players during the fourth quarter of an exhibition game after a slough of injuries had decimated his team and he had no bench to work with for the last quarter and a half or so:

RICHMOND has escaped sanction for fielding just 15 players in the final quarter of its NAB Challenge hit-out against Port Adelaide at Etihad Stadium last Thursday night.

Tigers coach Damien Hardwick asked the League during the game whether the match could be called off early as the club's injury toll mounted.

AFL football operations manager Mark Evans met with Tigers football boss Dan Richardson on Tuesday to discuss the situation and the club's obligation to fans and the broadcaster.

"I'm happy to leave it at that," Evans told RSN927 on Wednesday morning.

"In fact, I think the internal discussions have been very good and very well considered.

"We've all agreed the time-honoured way of parking a player in the goal square, if you wanted to, is a better outcome."

Evans said he understood why the Tigers made the inquiry to the League with round one fast approaching.

"I think there was a split decision to start removing players from the field. It was then pointed out that that's not we were looking for," Evans said.

"Dan Richardson and I had a discussion about this yesterday and he provided all the implications as to what they were dealing with at the time.

"I accept that was difficult for them, but equally they've accepted there were other ways of doing things."

The Tigers players dropped like nine-pins through the game with injuries to Shane Edwards (collarbone), Shaun Grigg (thumb), Reece Conca (hamstring) and Jacob Townsend (concussion) amplifying Hardwick's frustration.

Hardwick revealed post-match he had asked for the game to be cut short in the last 10 minutes.

That request was denied by the AFL, which then asked the Tigers to field a full team for the remainder of the game.

What would you have done? Let us know in the comments!

Weekend Wesults!

NOT a great weekend for the prognosticators!

In the CFL, we went 2-2, with both Montreal and British Columbia pulling major upsets on Friday night. Of course, it wasn't just us - Jamie Nye of CFL.ca went the same 2-2, and the oddsmakers actually went 1-3, choosing Winnipeg over Ottawa for some reason. Only Edmonton's win helped them salvage a game.... So, with two weeks left, we're fairly locked in at about the 80% mark in the CFL pundits' pool, but we're floating just one game behind Nye (42 to 43 correct), and that's what we're hoping to catch in these last eight chances before the playoffs. (We chose the same four winners last week, so no chance to catch up.) Our Record is 42-31 straight up, 42-29-2 against the spread. 

In the NFL, everyone blew chunks this week! Discounting tonight's Arizona game, we went 5-8 against the odds makers...but both Sagarin and ELO (538) predicted two winners out of thirteen against the spread! Actually, the Following Football tiers went 7-5-1, far better than all other contenders...except we thought we knew better in a few cases, and picked against them. Whoops.
Straight up winners, we all went 9-4, for what it's worth. Our Record is 70-32 straight up, 60-41 against the spread.

And in college ball, we went 25-21-1 against the actual Vegas spreads (on FBS only games, the only place you have spreads in Vegas), and straight up, a pretty solid 39-8. Then, in the FCS games, where we're basically inventing a spread based on the Sagarin ratings, the HERO Sports predictions, and our own Following Football tier system forecasts, our prognostications were saved by going 7-0 against our spread in the Historically Black College conferences, meaning we went 30-24 overall ATS. In picking winners, we were 39-15, with lots of upsets in the Colonial (poor James Madison in particular, who had ESPN there and everything, only to get beaten by Richmond 59-49!) and the Pioneer (also 2-3 straight up, including a loss by league-leader Jacksonville). Our Record now is 600-167 straight up and 361-305 (dropping pushes) against the spread.

Youw Weekend Wesults!

Along the four fronts we call home here at Following Football ACNC, results for the weekend are all in, and they're still sparse enough for us to cover everything in one post...so here we go! 

Australian Footy: As we posted Friday morning, the final eight are set, with still one final home-and-away round to go next weekend. In fact, given the results of the Round 22 games, even the placements are pretty secure, at least for the top four (which, some would argue, are all that matter in the AFL).

Fremantle doubled up Melbourne, 108-54, clinching the top spot and the first "minor premiership" (regular season championship)in their twenty-something year history! They will host a game in Fremantle against the number 4 seed, almost certainly Sydney, who wiped out St. Kilda 135-38 Sunday and needs just a win against injury-riddled Gold Coast to secure the trip west.

Meanwhile, the West Coast Eagles, who had a chance to catch the Dockers, lost that chance and possibly their key defense back to a shoulder injury when Adelaide utterly obliterated them 51-1 in the first quarter, and won the game by 57 in cruise control. West Coast shouldn't have those problems against the above mentioned St. Kilda team, and would then host the #2/#3 game in Perth against the two-time premier defenders, the Hawthorn Hawks, who did beat the Eagles (in PERTH!) a few weeks back but who would finish third assuming WC takes care of business (and Hawthorn beats Carlton, whom our FF Ratings have them favored to beat by almost ninety points!) The winners of these two Qualifying Finals get the next weekend off and host the survivors of the semifinals, which the losers would then have to play against the winners of the other two games...

...which pit seeds eight at five and seven at six next weekend. The four teams are set, but not the order. Western earned a likely home game by beating the Kangaroos 96-73, and will only have to defeat last-place Brisbane to secure that spot. The other likely host is Richmond, 74-47 winners over beleaguered Essendon Saturday, who will host North Melbourne's Roos in what may very well be the first of a two-weekend double header if the Tigers hold serve at home as they're favored to do. Meanwhile, Western will probably host Adelaide, on a steamroll at the moment as described above (although they played recently and the Bulldogs did beat the Crows). 

In other, less meaningful games, GWS beat Carlton 130-51, Collingwood ended the meaning of Geelong's season as mentioned Friday, 110-62, and Port Adelaide continued to irritate Power supporters by showing how good they CAN be and whomping Gold Coast 88-51.

Canadian Football: Labor Day Monday is shaping up to be a doubleheader barnburner up north, as four teams are separating from the pack. Calgary beat Winnipeg on the road handily, 36-8, to go to a league-leading 7 and 2 record at the halfway mark of the season. (Winnipeg is 3-6.) Edmonton sits one game back in the west at 6-3, overpowering Toronto 38-15, knocking the Argos back to 6-3 as well. Finally, Hamilton fell to 6-3 as well, allowing Montreal to climb within one game of .500, upset by the Alouettes 26-23. Those four teams at 6-3 and above play each other on Sept 7 in clashes that will decide the leader of each division: Edmonton at Calgary, and Toronto at Hamilton. Who's the next best team, at 5-4? Why, it's the surprising Ottawa Redblacks, who sent poor Saskatchewan to its ninth straight loss today with a 35-13 walkthrough.

NCAA Football: Sure, it's "only" FCS, but the D1 season got off to a BANG of a start Saturday with the five-time defending champion North Dakota St Bison traveling to the hardest place to play in the FCS - Missoula - to play the #12 ranked Montana Grizzlies. The game was everything it should have been and more: legendary lower division coach Bob Stitt made his FCS debut at UM with his unique flying offense, and was rewarded with a last second touchdown to upset the Bison, 38-35. As Brent Musberger said on air, if that's what we have to look forward to in 2015, bring it on! Several D3 and NAIA games took place on the 27th as well, including one of local interest for us - the College of Idaho upset the #13 (NAIA) Southern Oregon visitors 40-21 to open their season: particularly exciting for a team in its second year of existence. In fact, this blog was born the same day the Yotes played their first game! So, congratulations, birthmates! Here's hoping we BOTH have that kind of success all season long!

NFL Football: Of course, everyone is zero-and-zero right now! The games this weekend weren't particularly newsworthy in a specific sense, but there were teams that looked better than others - Oakland impressed tonight (at least, their first teams did), and so did Buffalo's and Cleveland's. Tom Brady finallly one good drive, his last before the DeflateGate case is settled and any punishment is served. Michael Vick had a good outing with the Bills; Sam Bradford has looked good for the Eagles; Nick Foles for the Rams, and Alex Smith for the Chiefs. Later this week, maybe on Thursday or Friday, we'll put together our Opening Tiers for the pro and college FBS levels of American football - very broad categories, no more than three or four tiers in total, which will serve as our starting points for the Following Football predictions to come this season. THIS IS AN IMPORTANT POINT: we may have gone out on a limb and made some bold predictions as to the overall seasons the teams will have, but for GAME by GAME predictions? We will base our projections SOLELY on the work the teams are doing THIS YEAR, as much as possible, and the same goes for our "rankings". The FBS "rankings" will have something like a 32-way tie for first before we get underway, and THOSE only because there are certain things that are immutable from season to season. (Oklahoma will NOT be worse than Georgia State. I guarantee it.)

Football "exchange program"?

Cam Newton of the NFL's Carolina Panthers is in Melbourne, Australia, this week as part of his sponsorship deal with Gatorade, apparently - one article called it part of a "football exchange program", which confuses me, TBH. For reasons unclear to us, he's latched on to Chris Newman of the AFL's Richmond Tigers, the stellar defenseman who recently passed the 250-game plateau. 

"We've got the same initials...the same number on our back: uno; and, you know, the same swag," Newton said in this piece on afl.com.au's Footy Feed. (Go towards the five minute mark or so.) Newton is probably one of the minority of NFL players with the all-around athleticism to be able to play the Australian game well, and the video piece shows him in a Richmond jumper learning the fine points of footy kicking style.

In particular, it was interesting to watch the star NFL player evaluate the Australian version of the game:

Newton said he had never watched a game of AFL before attending the Collingwood-Hawthorn game at the MCG on Friday night and then the Tigers' clash with Greater Western Sydney on Saturday. 

"It's an extremely physical game," Newton said. 

"In our sport, they're constantly putting things on you to protect you. In this sport, they're taking things away.

"All they're wearing is a tank top and a pair of boxers (boxer shorts) and going out there and giving it all they have which makes them courageous."

Okay, now all the votes are in...

...from The Age, Sports Fan Australia, Following Football, and AFL.com.au, and here's your All-AFL 2015 team at mid-season:

Behind the 50:
Alex Rance (Rich) - the outstanding on-ball defender in the game today.
Sam Mitchell (Haw)
Michael Hurley (Ess)
Jarred McVeigh (Syd)
Tom McDonald (Mel)
Matt Boyd (Western)

Between the 50s: 
Nat Fyfe (Fre) - Polled 6+ points voting EVERY round Freo's played (no one else has polled in more than 10 of their games)
Matt Priddis (WCE)
David Armitage (StK)
Todd Goldstein (NMK)
Dan Hannebury (Syd)
Dylan Shiel (GWS)

Forward of 50:
Lance Franklin (Syd) - it's rare that the highest paid player's also the best, but Buddy is...
Scott Pendelbury (Col)
Luke Parker (Syd)
Jamie Elliot (Col)
Josh Kennedy (WCE)
Eddie Betts (Ade)

Interchange:
Aaron Sandilands (Fre) - the premier ruckman in the game today. 
Andrew Gaff (WCE)
Corey Enright (Geel)
Patrick Dangerfield (Ade)

And, on my personal wish list to watch play any day of the week:
Cyril Rioli (Haw) - Along with Betts, the most exciting player in the game!
Jeremy Cameron (GWS) - the top goal scorer of 2017 and beyond...
Adam Goodes (Syd) - enjoying a fantastic resurgence since May!
Nic Natainui (WCE) - the most athletic player in footy
Rob Murphy (WB) - always on the ball, literally
Marcus Bontempelli (WB) - 2019 Brownlow medalist
Chad Wingard (PA) - a down year for him and Port; still a phenomenal player
Jack Riewoldt (Rich) - Jack would have been player 23 on the All-Aussie list
Jesse Hogan (Melb) - rookie of the year, possibly
Gary Ablett, Jr. (GC) - it took just one game to remind us why he's the greatest player of his generation and the Brownlow favorite any year he's healthy (and some he's not, like 2014!).

(And, by the way, here are our top 22 point getters in voting for Player of the Year so far:)
NAME                           TEAM               POINTS

Fyfe, Nat	F	221
Hannebury, Dan	SY	124
Armitage, David	SK	112
Pendlebury, Scott	CO	106
Cotchin, Trent	R	101
Shiel, Dylan	GW	100
Mitchell, Sam	H	92
Priddis, Matt	WC	91
Goldstein, Todd	NM	88
Steven, Jack	SK	83
Gray, Robbie	PA	81
Murphy, Marc	CA	80
Beams, Dayne	B	80
Franklin, Lance	SY	79
Kennedy, Josh	SY	75
Martin, Dustin	R	74
Dangerfield, Patrick	A	73
Gaff, Andrew	WC	73
Hurley, Michael	E	70
Parker, Luke	SY	70
Murphy, Robert	WB	69
Neale, Lachie	F	68

 

The weekend in CFL and AFL action

Starting with the CFL, thanks to the quarterback MASH unit overflowing, we went 1-3 predicting winners and 0-4 betting on the line. Great start, FF! But we're honest when we screw up...and it was under mitigating circumstances! Check out the review of the four weekend games here - you'll see that if it wasn't for Montreal losing BOTH quarterbacks, they probably win against Ottawa...and if Edmonton doesn't lose Mike Reilly for the year, then Toronto may not win (y'know, we take that back. Trevor Harris made his second professional start for the Argos and went 24-27. They would've won regardless...)...and if Saskatchewan doesn't lose star QB Darian Durant in the game, they hold on to beat archrival Winnipeg. So, losing those games stings less than it might otherwise. GREAT Monday morning reviews of the weekend's action from Don Landry and Pat Steinberg for CFL.ca - LOTS of insight in a short read!

Regardless, there were four exciting games up north!

Week 1
Ottawa d. Montreal 20-16 (Game winning drive AND time draining drive by Ottawa!)
Calgary d. Hamilton 24-23 (Rene Paradis kicks winning FG with no time left)
Toronto d. Edmonton 26-11 (Harris dominates Reilly's replacement...)
Winnipeg d. Saskatchewan 30-26 (another game winning drive, this time Winnipeg's)

In the Australian footy league, the biggest story in Round 13 was Richmond's upset at Sydney, pulling away to win by 18 Friday night. Not only did it move the Tigers into the top 8 for the first time in a month, but it allows reigning premier Hawthorn to use their distinctive second half domination over rival Essendon (with some bad blood thrown in from the Hawks' Sam Mitchell!) to jump into the top four for the first time in two months! As those top four get the "double chance" in the playoffs, that's a critical distinction for any team. (Can we please wait to cover the details of the double chance until we reach August?)

The other four games went more or less to form: Fremantle def. Collingwood (but barely, by seven points); Adelaide waited until the fourth quarter to show their dominance over the Brisbane Lions, pulling away by 13 after trailing most of the game; the Western Bulldogs got revenge for the St. Kilda 55-point comeback on May 9, winning by 13; and Carlton proved they're starting to rise from the dead, beating still-deceased Gold Coast 103-69. (Oh, and we got five out of six right last week, missing on Richmond's upset.)

Midseason eval of each footy team in the AFL

These two articles together (splitting the eighteen AFL teams into articles each looking at nine teams) will give veteran footy followers a keen sense of where their teams are lacking and where they're running with power, but it'll also help the novice AFL fan get a feel for what each team is right now and what they're capable of.

Adelaide-Brisbane-Carlton-Collingwood-Essendon-Fremantle-Geelong-Gold Coast-GWS

Hawthorn-Melbourne-North-Port Adelaide-Richmond-St.Kilda-Sydney-West Coast-Western

And by the way, if you're still looking to get a handle on who each of these teams really is, here's a link to a great set of descriptions, one for each Australian club, matching them to an American sports team which they most closely resemble. (For example, Fremantle, who won last night 80-73 in a thrilling game, most closely resembles hockey's New Jersey Devils, while their opponent Collingwood fills the niche of baseball's royalty, the New York Yankees.)

Week 10 in footy - Freo goes DOWN!

Yes, Fremantle suffered its first defeat, oddly enough at the hands of middling Richmond and in dominating fashion, much worse than the 97-70 score indicates. Richmond scored the first five goals and never looked back, dominating the game from the opening horn. Strangely, ruckman Aaron Sandilands set another record, for positive clearances, and Richmond managed a mere 36 entries into the forward 50...yet Fremantle suffered a 27-point loss! 

Saturday's scores included a narrow Carlton loss to Adelaide, 99-90, that saw the dramatic and traumatic end to a legend's career - Chris Judd, twice a Brownlow medalist as best in the league, already in an "extra" season extending his career into 2015, blew out an ACL in the first quarter that put him on a 10-12 month rehab track that made immediate retirement a no-brainer. (Recall this post to understand what a revered player Judd is.) Other games included Sydney coasting over Gold Coast 93-41 (they never bothered getting out of first gear), Geelong holding Essendon goal-less in the first half en route to winning 122-53, and Port Adelaide surprising Western 100-62.

GWS eased over Brisbane by 30, 97-67, and Hawthorn glided past St. Kilda by a score of 132-69 on Sunday, but the big game was the Kangaroo smackdown of West Coast, pulling away to win 85-75 at the end in a wind-blown game in Tasmania. The announcers referred to it as a "four or five goal wind", meaning they expected the team playing towards the wind to score that much more - and in the first half, they weren't disappointed. But to the surprise of all in the last, North Melbourne managed to score just as many as the Eagles did to hold on for a victory.

The very Commonwealth holiday Monday matchup between Collingwood and Melbourne on the Queen's (official) Birthday went the way of the Magpies (as it seemingly always does) by 25 points, 110-85, although the Demons were tied close to three-quarter time!

This coming week is the first of three "bye" weeks, with just six games each week while a third of the teams take a hiatus to lick their wounds (and if you're Gold Coast, find enough healthy players to field a team next week). Here's the line-up:

Geelong/Port Adelaide Friday night (great game potentially! I'll take Geelong...)
Fremantle/Gold Coast Saturday afternoon (on the other hand...)
Essendon/West Coast Saturday twilight (hard to imagine the Dons winning in Perth)
Sydney/North Melbourne Saturday night (should be the Swans despite NMK's last game)
GWS/Collingwood Sunday afternoon (best game of the round - flip a coin! I'll take the Pies)
Melbourne/St. Kilda Sunday twilight (should be close - I'm thinking the Saints...)

Week 8 down under...

Results of Round 8...
Geelong def. Carlton 140-63
West Coast def. St. Kilda 131-78
GWS def. Adelaide 108-84
Collingwood def. Gold Coast 132-63
Sydney def. Hawthorn 73-69
Fremantle def. No. Melbourne 115-42
Essendon def. Brisbane 136-78
Melbourne def. Western 103-64
Richmond def. Port Adelaide 76-43 

The AFL ladder right now...
Fremantle is still two games clear, and with Sydney's revenge win over the Hawks (possibly the game of the year so far!), Freo has four games clear of Hawthorn with 14 to go! 

Two games back at 6-2 are Sydney and two surprises: West Coast (who will find out in the next four weeks if they're real or not, playing three finalists) and Greater Western, who won three in a row for the first time ever. To put the Giants' success in perspective: the best season in GWS' history, 2014, was 6-16. They're already 6-2 this season.

At 5-3 comes two teams who (while firmly in the top 8 right now) have questionable credentials given the quality of teams they've beaten: Collingwood and Adelaide. Right behind them are six teams fighting for the last finals spots - Hawthorn (very likely), Richmond (see Collingwood), Essendon (who knows?), Geelong (looking more and more probable), Western (depends which game you watch!), and North Melbourne (who may be as talented as anybody, but...). If you give the top four credit for likely making the playoffs, the next four most likely to last the season might be Adelaide, Hawthorn, Geelong, and maybe Western. But it's a long season...

...and Port Adelaide is still lurking there at 3-5, if they can return to earlier form. Their partner at 3-5 is Melbourne, but those were three upsets. Below them are St. Kilda and Brisbane, with two upsets in eight attempts, and 1-7 disasters Gold Coast and Carlton.

In the FF Rating system,
Hawthorn still leads with an 85.3 rating (it doesn't hurt that they lose by four and win by a hundred), but Fremantle has crept within a few points to 81.8 (a jump of thirteen points since round 1). Right behind them are Sydney (no surprise, 76.5) and West Coast (yes surprise, 74.1).

Then there's a huge clump sitting in spots #5-13, all close to the average score of 50: Geelong (58.3), Adelaide (56.5), Port Adelaide (55.0, despite recent losses), North Melbourne (54.3), Collingwood (53.6), Richmond (53.1), Essendon and GWS (51.7), and if we stretch the definition, Western (40.6, but until their last two big losses they were also around 50). You see why it should be hard to predict these games!

Below that, you have Melbourne (29.8), Gold Coast (who's dropped all the way to 23.3), Brisbane (21.6), St. Kilda (actually increased to 16.0) and lowly Carlton, who's lost 23 points this year and sits at a 14.3 rating. (Gold Coast has also dropped 23 points, and Port has lost 17. On the other side, GWS is up 20, Collingwood up 17, West Coast 15 and Fremantle 13 since March!)

Bipolar Footy Weekend: Saturday was as predicted, but SUNDAY?

Great game on Friday night, for once, as North Melbourne defeated Essendon 93-82 in an exciting game that flip-flopped several times. But Saturday...yawn...five games that all played to form, and the closest one was 43 points in the end:
- Adelaide over St. Kilda 119-73 (although the Saints started with a three-goal lead!)
- Hawthorn over Melbourne 155-50, and it wasn't that close.
- Sydney pulled away from Geelong 120-77 after a close first three quarters.
- GWS proved its credentials by annihilating poor Carlton 135-57, following their "famous victory" over the Hawks last week.
- And poor Gold Coast fielded whoever they could in a 135-43 rout by the West Coast Eagles that was well over 100 points shortly after three quarters, before they called off the slaughter.

So, expectations for Sunday were NOT high. And then...
- The Western Bulldogs (having fought to use Etihad Stadium this week, rather than give it up to a soccer tourney) fought back from 32-0 to tie the game at 88 with less than 4 minutes to go, only to see 7-0 Fremantle win by 13 (101-88) in the end. What a incredible game from both teams!
-As the legendary Rex Hunt (my favorite footy voice of all time!) broadcast his 2000th game of AFL/VFL footy (and the stories he can share!...), his ole team Richmond upset Collingwood 105-100 in a game that had 12 lead changes!
-And finally, amazingly rising from the dead, the Brisbane Lions pulled away from the much more talented Port Adelaide Power and won 102-65!

So, the ladder as it sits right now...
1. Fremantle. 7-0 and unbeaten - but happy to have been challenged this week! Still two games clear of all competition and rolling on all cylinders.

2-5. West Coast, Sydney, Adelaide and GWS, all 5-2. All four look like realistic finalists, although I'd take Freo over any of them at the MCG or anywhere else right now.

6-9. Hawthorn, Collingwood, Western Bulldogs and North Melbourne, all 4-3. No reason any of the four couldn't be finalists, but certainly not all nine teams will make finals. Oddly, the difference between 8th and 9th places right now - between Western and North - is exactly ONE point in the percentage: Western has exactly as many points scored as allowed (616/616, or 100.0%), while the Kangaroos have one less point than scored (656/657, or 99.9%).

10-13. Richmond, Essendon, Port Adelaide and Geelong, all at a desperate 3-4 and trying to stay close to finals contention. With fifteen games (2/3 of the season) still to go, there's still plenty of time to make the top eight - after all, Richmond made it from a 3-10 start last year - but the teams ahead of them are going to make it difficult!

14-16. St. Kilda, Melbourne, and Brisbane, all happy to be 2-5 because most folks have them pegged for the bottom of the ladder and maybe not having won any games by now!

17-18. Gold Coast and Carlton, 1-6, desperate for anything positive to happen this season. GC literally had too few players to practice last week, and Carlton "simply doesn't have the talent" to keep up with the rest of the league this year. Gold Coast in particular is a huge disappointment, having expected to make finals this year.

AFL's Week 3 results...

Collingwood 140, St. Kilda 66... The Saints started strong, but they just don't have the horses to keep up with almost anyone in the AFL.

Essendon 105, Carlton 84...Similarly, Carlton's fourth quarter was good but they don't have the players to stay up to speed with even a low-finals club like the Dons.

Adelaide 80, Melbourne 55...Similarly, the Demons are improving and were able to stay with the 3-0 Crows for most of the game, but after four quarters Adelaide was going to outrun Melbourne.

Sydney 111, Greater Western Sydney 90...and the Giants are in the same boat, able to stay with the Swans for three quarters but not four.

Port Adelaide 113, North Melbourne 105...This was the one competitive game of the round (which went completely to form) - two very good teams in a very close and well-played game, which the home team Power won by about a goal.

Richmond 137, Brisbane 58...Another game between a team fighting for finals and one that certainly won't be.

Hawthorn 127, Western Bulldogs 57...See previous comments. Western is improving quickly, but they're not ready to beat the two-time defenders.

Geelong 105, Gold Coast 96...Two teams starting the game 0-2, both with severe problems that the other exploited at different times in the game. Geelong's too slow for most teams, and in the 2nd and 4th quarters the Suns ran past them, but Gold Coast has major defensive woes, which the Cats exploited in spades the rest of the game.

Fremantle 111, West Coast 81...The score is far too close for the actual game. At one point, the Dockers led 69 to 4! The Eagles scored nine of the last ten goals in the Western Derby to make the score look vaguely respectable, but there's no comparison between the two teams right now.

Records after round three...
3-0: Adelaide, Fremantle, Sydney
2-1: Hawthorn, Richmond, Essendon, Collingwood, GWS, Western
1-2: West Coast, Geelong, Port Adelaide, No. Melbourne, St. Kilda
0-3: Gold Coast, Carlton, Brisbane.

..and AFL Week Two In Preview!

...and here are the match-ups for Week Two!

Fri) Carlton at West Coast 
    West Coast is a 12.5 point favorite, and 20+ by the ratings, but with the injuries it's hard to picture the Eagles beating many teams besides the Carlton Blues, who will be sinking towards the basement.

Sat) Western Bulldogs at Richmond
   Richmond should be able to win this one as easily as last week's game over Carlton, but it still doesn't mean an 18-23 win (the betting line) would imply the Tigers are top 8 material.

Melbourne at Greater Western Sydney
   Given where the two teams were last August, the spread of 11-15 points in GWS' favor is reasonable...given how the Demons played last week, though, a Melbourne victory is possible!

Adelaide at Collingwood 
   On the other hand, the 11.5 point spread flatters Collingwood immensely - Adelaide is a 27 point rating favorite, which is more likely.

Sydney at Port Adelaide
   This should be a GREAT game! Port is a five point favorite due to home pitch advantage only, and each team had a challenge to get warmed up last week!

St. Kilda at Gold Coast
   On paper, the GC Suns should be easy winners here...but then, they should have been easy winners LAST week, when Melbourne dominated them for four quarters and won by 26. Here, the Suns are 30-37 point favorites.

Sun) Fremantle at Geelong
   Until very recently, this would be a no-brainer for Geelong - they've won 27 of the last 29 at home. But while the oddsmakers still have them as a 2.5 point favorite, we're taking and rating the Dockers as a six point fave.

Hawthorn at Essendon
    Good luck, Essendon. The Dons ran out of gas last week, failing to score in the fourth quarter while Sydney scored nine goals for the victory. Hawthorn won't let them get out in front in the first place Sunday. The spread is 27-36 points.

Brisbane at North Melbourne
   Here's an example of past performance outweighing last week's debacle at Adelaide: the Kangaroos, who were AWOL last week but one game short of the Grand Final last September, are 32 point favorites against a Brisbane Lions team which has looked much better in 2015. We like the Lions to beat the spread.

Tonight's the Night! (Gonna be aw-right!)

Here we go! The 2015 Australian Football League kicks off in less than five hours with Carlton v Richmond, two of the oldest teams and a traditional season opener (albeit not always on a Thursday night, which it already is Down Under!). Go to afl.com.au for all your news, scores, video highlights, and whatever else you want on all things footy! 

Here's the round-up of games for Round 1 of the twenty-two game season...

Carlton v Richmond (Richmond favored by 16.5 on line, 12 by our rating system), Thurs Apr 2

Gold Coast @ Melbourne (GC Suns favored big on all fronts), Sat Apr 4
Essendon @ Sydney (Sydney favored by 30-ish over the Bombers), Sat Apr 4
Collingwood @ Brisbane (despite recent records, Brisbane is rightfully favored by a few points here!), Sat Apr 4
West Coast @ Western (in Melbourne, which tells you how old "Western" is! - pundits are split here. West Coast should be better, but have some injuries...), Sat Apr 4

GWS @ St. Kilda (if ever GWS will be favorites on the road, this is it, by about 15), Sun Apr 5
Kangaroos @ Adelaide (great game, potentially. We like North Melbourne to finish higher, but the Adelaide Crows to win here by a goal), Sun Apr 5
Port Adelaide @ Fremantle (met thrice last year, all classic games! Flip a coin, but Freo is favored by 4-5), Sun Apr 5

Geelong @ Hawthorn (the best matchup there is, because of the six-year long "Kennett Curse" that was broken in the prelim finals in 2013 - now, it's safe to pick Hawthorn by 20+!), Mon Apr 6

We'll update on Mondays, both standings and rating systems, but again, follow for yourself on afl.com.au!

AFL predictions from the AFL media

The annual survey of the afl.com.au staff on a wide variety of predictions for the 2015 season - no HUGE surprises, but it'll give you a great feel for the landscape of the upcoming AFL season.

So, for fairness' sake, here are my commesurate forecasts...
TOP EIGHT: Hawthorn - Sydney - North Melbourne - Port Adelaide - Fremantle - Adelaide - Geelong - either Richmond or Gold Coast.
PREMIER: Hawthorn Hawks
RUNNER-UP: Sydney Swans
WOODEN SPOON (last place): St. Kilda
MOVING UP: N. Melbourne, GWS
SET TO FALL: Carlton
Brownlow Medal ("mvp"): Nat Fyfe (Fremantle)
Coleman Medal (most goals): Jarryd Roughhead (Hawthorn)
NAB AFL Rising Star: Honestly? I don't know.
Coach of the Year: Alistair Clarkston (Hawthorn)
Recruit of the Year: Mitch Clark (Geelong)
Surprise All-Australian: Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs)
Headline you'll see: Third time's the charm! Hawthorn v Sydney for the title!
Headline you WON'T see: All the stars make it through the season injury-free!
Everyone will be talking about: The race for the Brownlow - Ablett, Fyfe, Coleman, Franklin, Dangerfield...
How many goals will Lance Franklin kick? 60 - he'll be in the Coleman race!
Which new coach will win the most game? Adelaide's new coach, Phil Walsh
Will Patrick Dangerfield stay at Adelaide? They all say no, but I hope he does!

Starting with some Aussie Footy first...

There was another weekend of warm-up games down under, and the big news was the suspension and possible ending of the career of Fremantle star Ryan Crowley, who copped to using a banned substance in a pain-killer last September. The article has some interesting things to say about how and why narcotic and codeine based pain killers work the way they do, and the reasons for banning them when (unlike PEDs) they don't strictly speaking improve performance. Definitely worth a read, whether you follow the Australian brand of football or not.

As for the games themselves, both Essendon and Port Adelaide put out teams that were barely shells of their actual rosters - Essendon because of the 2012 supplement scandal we've addressed many times, and Port for less excusable reasons (in my humble opinion), resulting in games won very easily by GWS and Richmond, respectively. Carlton had a good win against Collingwood, and the game between Melbourne Demons and the Western Bulldogs was interesting, as the Dees went out to a huge lead (60-8!) just after halftime and hardly scored again, as the Doggies came back to close the gap to just seven by the final horn. Sydney and Fremantle played what was designated as the Pride Game, ostensibly recognizing sexual orientation choice but somehow never coming out and saying as much... nevertheless, it was disappointing for the stars it didn't include in the pre-season outing. (Sorry - "outing" is a bad choice of words for a gay pride game.) The best game of the weekend was probably Thursday night between Geelong and Adelaide, as both teams put their best players out on the field for a good game won by the Cats of Geelong, a town north of Melbourne with a long footy history. Both teams are favorites to make the final 8 this year.

Injuries are not just a stateside football thing...

Three days into the Aussie Rules pre-season, we've already had two major knee injuries that threaten to end the season for two of our best and brightest: Tom Libertore of the Western Bulldogs blew an ACL in their game last night against Richmond, while the West Coast Eagles confirmed that they've lost defender and 2014 best-and-fairest Eric Mackenzie with a similar injury for an undetermined amount of time after defeating Carlton on Friday night.

Pre-season is a terrible dilemma for coaches of all sports: how do you prepare your team for the "real" season without endangering your still-out-of-condition athletes? They've got to play, or they won't get into game readiness - even the players tell you that - but if they're out of shape, are they safe to play? ACL injuries are notoriously fickle occurrences anyway: these could have happened to any athlete at virtually any time, and Mackenzie's injury in particular was almost ludicrous in its lack of contact. Perhaps it's simple coincidence that these two injuries to star players happened in the first three days of pre-season...but it makes you think.

(And here are the highlights from Friday and Saturday's games - West Coast v Carlton on Friday, Brisbane edging St. Kilda on Saturday afternoon, as well as the Richmond / Western Bulldog game.

And here's the way the FF rating system will start the pre-season...

Now, it needs to be said that pre-season games are NOT the same as regular or post season games: the teams aren't nearly as interested as usual in winning the game at hand, but rather developing the best team in order to win the games "that count". But there will be some indications during the NAB Challenge from February 26 through the end of March, indications that will help show how certain young players are developing, how new 'employees' fit in with the rest of their new teammates, what the needs are that may or may not have been apparent until the entire team's on the field together, how a new coach or system works in a particular situation, how age or injury is affecting key players, and so forth. For that reason, we at Following Football reserve the right to adjust ratings to a small extent to compensate for those variances. (And we'll do the same thing for American football in the summer.)

Having said that, here's our starting point for the 2015 Australian Football League Season, and some initial predictions about the direction those numbers might move:

Hawthorn Hawks - 81.6 ..........The defenders didn't hurt themselves this summer! (up)
Sydney Swans - 77.7..................Trade issues, devastating loss in GF could hurt. (down)

Port Adelaide Power - 71.7......A team on the rise who got a new great player. (up!).
Fremantle Dockers - 70.3.......Made some positive moves and some not so good. (<--->).

Adelaide Crows - 63.4..............Great new players but 5th? With a new coach? (down).
N. Melbourne Kangaroos - 62.8...Good moves, but their best player's 37 years old.... (<---->).
West Coast Eagles- 62.3...........We say this every year, but then they've fallen short. (<---->)
Geelong Cats - 61.8...................Is this the year they come back to the pack? Maybe. (<-->)

Richmond Tigers - 55.1...........Richmond's rated ninth right now - as always! (<----->)
Essendon Bombers - 53.7.......How can the ASADA scandal NOT hurt them? (down)

Gold Coast Suns - 43.9............With Gary Ablett Jr. healthy, they were already a finals team. (up!)
Carlton Blues - 40.7.................The Blues lost top player but mediocre was ceiling. (<--->)
Collingwood Magpies - 40.2..Hard to imagine most popular team this far down. (<--->)

Western Bulldogs - 31.4...........Lots of new talentplus improving youngsters from '14. (up!)
Brisbane Lions - 26.4..............Offseason was a HUGE positive for the Lions! (up)
GWS Giants - 26.3....................See Bulldogs comment, and copy for the next 3 years! (up)

Melbourne Demons - 20.2......Lots of new blood, but has the culture of losing changed? (up?)
St. Kilda Saints - 10.5...............This is awfully low; yet somehow, the Saints may hit it. (<--->)

Here's the hard part: there are seven ups and three downs, but it's a net zero system, meaning whenever one team goes up a point, another team goes DOWN a point, so that the total rating is always 50 points per team (900.0). SO...just assume like all predictions, this one's not entirely accurate! (Besides, it'll change as pre-season moves on.)

Go to www.afl.com.au for all your AFL information!!

The AFL pre-season is just TWO WEEKS AWAY!

(Can you tell I'm excited?)

We'll be previewing all eighteen teams during the four week, three game per team preseason, and providing our predictions, rating system, and player information about the 2015 AFL season to come. 

As a starting point, though, here's where we left off last season:

GRAND FINAL: Hawthorn Hawks def. Sydney Swans, 137-74.
Preliminary Finals: Hawthorn def. Port Adelaide Power, 97-94; Sydney def. North Melbourne Kangaroos, 136-65.
Semi-Finals: Port Adelaide def. Fremantle Dockers, 105-83; No. Melbourne def. Geelong Cats, 98-92.
Qualifying Finals (losers played winners of the Elimination finals; winners got a bye into Prelim Finals): Hawthorn def. Geelong, 104-68; Sydney def. Fremantle, 93-69.
Elimination Finals: No. Melbourne def. Essendon Bombers, 93-81; Port Adelaide def. Richmond Tigers, 132-75.

Final Standings for the "home-and-away" season:
                                     W     L     T      % (points scored/points allowed)
Sydney                      17       5     0        142.9
Hawthorn                17       5     0        140.8
Geelong                    17       5     0        113.8
Fremantle                16      6      0        130.4
Port Adelaide         14      8      0        129.9
No. Melbourne      14      8      0        117.0
Essendon                12      9       1         106.3
Richmond                12     10     0         105.8
West Coast               11     11      0         116.9
Adelaide                    11     11      0         114.1
Collingwood            11     11      0          94.1
Gold Coast               10     12      0         93.7
Carlton                       7      14      1          89.7
Western Bulldogs 7      15      0          81.3
Brisbane Lions       7      15      0          69.3
Gr. Wst. Sydney     6      16     0          76.7
Melbourne               4      18     0          68.4
St. Kilda                     4      18     0          60.8

One of the nicest innovations the AFL has that I'm highly in favor of for other leagues concerns their tiebreaking system - the % figure on the right, which is a ratio of points scored to points allowed. (So, if you allowed the same number of points as you scored, your % would be 100.0, meaning you scored 100.0% of the number of points you allowed. If you have 120.0%, that means you score 120 points for every 100 your opponents score - a pretty good indicator that you should be a winning team.) 

You'll notice that even though the top three teams all went 17-5, Sydney and Hawthorn were dominating competition, averaging over 7 points for every 5 their opponents managed. Meanwhile, despite the record, Geelong had only 113.8%, which means they won a lot of "squeakers", got blown out once or twice, and generally had a harder time than their adversaries above them. That put them in the #3 seed, and sure enough, they lost twice and were eliminated, while the other two met in the Grand Final. It's a great way to separate good from lucky, although it's not perfect. But there's absolutely NO complaints about the system that I've ever heard, even when a team's beaten someone above them on the ladder because of percentage.

Looking ahead, sometimes that percentage tells you who's "better" than their record, and in this case, I'm looking at both West Coast and Greater Western Sydney to move up in 2015 because of that. You'd think Geelong would drop, but lots of betters have lost money waiting for that to happen over the years! Richmond and Essendon might be vulnerable, and Collingwood also should be on notice.

Reposting the AFL Comparison page WITH LINKS to each of the individual articles. (You're welcome.)

Over the course of the next week or two, we'll share with you American football lovers each of the eighteen AFL teams, and who the best professional club in American sports is. This will give you a basis of comparison to understand the dynamics of Australian Footy teams, and perhaps how to choose your new favorite Aussie club to root for!

Here's a preview of how the teams line up with their American counterparts...

The ADELAIDE Crows = the New York Knicks (of the NBA) - link here! 
The BRISBANE Lions = the Los Angeles Lakers (of the NBA) - link here! 
The CARLTON Blues = the Chicago Bears (of the NFL) - link to Carlton here! 
The COLLINGWOOD Magpies = the New York Yankees (of MLB) - link here! 
The ESSENDON Bombers = the Oakland Athletics (of MLB) - link to Essendon here! 
The FREMANTLE Dockers = the New Jersey Devils (of the NHL) - link here! 
The GEELONG Cats = the New England Patriots (of the NFL) - link here! 
The GOLD COAST Suns = the Cleveland Cavaliers (of the NBA) - link here! 
The GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY Giants = the Minnesota Timberwolves (of the NBA) - link to GWS here! 
The HAWTHORN Hawks = the San Antonio Spurs (of the NBA) - link here!
The MELBOURNE Demons = the Oakland Raiders (of the NFL) - link here! 
The NORTH MELBOURNE Kangaroos = The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (of MLB) - link! 
The PORT ADELAIDE Power = the Seattle Seahawks (of the NFL) - link!
The RICHMOND Tigers = the San Diego Chargers (of the NFL) - link to Richmond here! 
The ST. KILDA Saints = the New York Jets (of the NFL) - link here! 
The SYDNEY Swans = the Boston Red Sox (of MLB) - link to Sydney Swans here! 
The WEST COAST Eagles = the Dallas Cowboys (of the NFL) - link here! 
The WESTERN Bulldogs = the Sacramento Kings (of the NBA) - link here! 

As we progress through each club and its American doppelganger, we hope you'll come to understand more about the particular teams that represent the great sport of footy in Australia and around the world. Before the season starts next March, you'll get a firm background in the sport - and we'll provide content on the AFL page to help novices understand the sport.