Terminal Thursday Thoughts

I've talked about this all week, and this is my last scheduled post of the cycle, so let me start and end with the reminder: if you're reading this blog and want it to continue more or less as I'm doing...

COMMENT ON THIS POST THIS WEEK!

The issue, of course, is that as much as I love doing this blog, as much as crunching numbers to quantify and align teams at their supposed performance levels is fun for me to do...the time and effort it takes to do the thorough job for all of the teams I feel need to be covered each week is more than I have available to me, at least when you combine that with my regular (read: "paying") job, caring for my children, and the deteriorating condition of my health (which has zero to do with this blog). 

In the past, I've had people from Idaho, California, Nevada, North Carolina and Washington who've contacted me about what they've read, and I've known through that kind of anecdotal evidence that we were reaching people, that what we were doing was valued by someone out there. It's not like we need a thousand regular readers, but if we don't have any, which is what the lack of comment feedback suggests, we're just "spitting into the wind", as they say.

If that's not the case, we need you to tell us so.

CONTACT us through the comment section on this or either of the other two posts over the last two days (our regular UPS and DOWNS column, and our PROPHECIES in PHOOTBALL overview of the weekend's procedings (which starts today with the Giants and "Redskins" - an article on line today suggesting the life expectancy of the latter name is close to becoming a finite, definable number). 

Here's a thought we were having ourselves that 538 picked up this morning - there seem to be a bunch of "good teams" in the NFL who have started their season 0-2, usually an indicator that the playoffs are out of reach for most. Consider this list of teams: Seattle, Baltimore, Indianapolis, Houston, Detroit, NJ Giants, and Philadelphia. History suggests that ONLY ONE of those seven teams will make it into the post-season! (I've not "forgotten" New Orleans and Chicago. That was intentional.) The chart below in the 538 article shows that of the 7-8 teams over the last two years to go 0-2, only one made the playoffs each year.To make the postseason, most of the time it'll take at least ten wins - and you only have fourteen games left to do so it. A tall order, given that something's not going well to begin with (or you wouldn't be 0-2!). 

(By the way, my thought is that the best bet for a playoff team out of this group is the winner of the Indy/Houston race, as Jax and the Titans are unlikely to reach more than eight wins apiece.)

The Eagles And Ravens Are Screwed
By REUBEN FISCHER-BAUM and CHADWICK MATLIN

We’re two weeks into the NFL season, and nine teams are 0-2. But these winless squads are not created equal: The Seattle Seahawks, last season’s NFC champion, are clearly in better shape than the terrible Chicago Bears. Still, two games is an eighth of the season, and two early losses can wipe out even the best teams’ margin of error for the rest of the season.

So, how bad is it to start 0-2? And which of these nine teams have already screwed up their playoff chances?

Interesting Super Bowl Fact #5

Seattle won last year's Super Bowl by a score of 43-8, a winning margin of 35 points.

New England has three Super Bowl titles...won by a combined total of 9 points. (A field goal victory each time - 20-17 over the Rams, 32-29 over Carolina, and 24-21 over Philadelphia.)

If you count wins AND losses, Seattle's SMALLEST margin was 11 points, in a loss to Pittsburgh (21-10) in 2006.

Meanwhile, in the Belechick era, the LARGEST margin in any of their FIVE Super Bowls was 4 points, when the Giants beat them 21-17 in a game that every Pats fan has beaten out of their memory for sanity's sake.

(Of course, if you go back pre-Belechick, there WAS that one time in 1986, when Da Bears beat the Pats 46-10, in a game that wasn't even THAT close...)

Hey! NFL stat geeks!

And here's a fun little article, also from Five-Thirty-Eight, on the NFL playoffs, the atrocity of the NFC South, the unlikelihood of Philadelphia not making the playoffs, the unlikelihood of Atlanta making the playoffs, the amazing powers of Odelle Beckham, Jr., and some cool graphs and charts! Enjoy!

Sunday, Dec 14th in the NFL...

So, a few thoughts as the day progresses...

So, Cleveland coach Mike Pettine...are you satisfied with your decision to start the rookie? 30-0? Interceptions galore?  Continual taunting from Bengals players with the stupid "money gesture" of Manziel's? No chance to win?

If you're going to win a game with your defense, as Buffalo was doing,  the best way to seal it is to have magical defensive end Mario Williams strip Aaron Rodgers, knock the ball into the end zone, and use the old anti-fumble-forward rule to put the ball dead in the end zone for a safety! 

We were wrong to think Washngton would be able to hang with Odell Beckham Jr.  and the New Jersey Giants - the Blue men won 24-13, closing our competition gap to Following Football 3, Vegas casinos, 2. 

Thanks to an early safety by Tennessee's defense, the scores in the Jets/Titans game were fun to watch scroll across the screen: 5-3...8-3...11-3...11-10...and then the Jets pulled out the win with the first 16-11 score in NFL HISTORY!...and thereby ruined their chances for the first draft pick! It's a strange world...

Dallas Cowboys, take a bow! Yes, you won; yes, you now control the division, etc. But here's the thing: when you went up 21-0, all cylinders firing, that's fine...you've done that. Then Philly came back to blow past you to 24-21, and every sportswriter in America was preparing their lede: "Cowboys blow another one", etc. But you didn't. You immediately put together the most important drive of Coach Garrett's career, threw the pass to the god-like Dez Bryant, and put the game back on cruise control. That was something we DO NOT EXPECT from you, 8-8 Cowboys! But now, at 10-4 and in control of your destiny, we can expect a top finish from you! Congratulations! 

PREDICTIONS for Week 15!

Here we go! After a break-even week during the last regular season week of FBS games (although, remember that to our credit, we don't just have to be on the correct side of the line - we have to be closer to the actual result than Vegas was! Much harder to do!), we strive to call the quarter finals for the FCS playoffs and Week 15 of the NFL season...

[By the way, overall during these past five weeks since we've had the full Following Football ranking and rating system in place, we've gone 32-29 overall against Vegas' predictions, with three draws. Feelin' purdy guud 'bout thay-at!]

THURSDAY
Arizona @ St. Louis - Sagarin and FF both have Arizona winning this game (we say Cardinals by three; Sagarin ratings say 1.7); while Vegas is picking the surging Rams to win by 4.5 points. Winning team takes the point. And that winner is US! Arizona won the defensive battle 12-6, won game number 11, and proved that for this team, like other defensive powerhouses in the past (see: Ravens, Baltimore), it doesn't matter who's at quarterback.

FRIDAY
Chattanooga @ New Hampshire - we all think Chattanooga by 1-2 points. All of us were wrong - New Hampshire 35-30.

SATURDAY
Navy @ Army (actually a fairly neutral site game in Maryland) - Vegas, the Sagarin ratings, and Following Football are all picking the Naval Academy to win by 12-18 points. Navy took most of the first half to get going, so the margin of victory was only seven, 17-10. But it made for a good game!

FCS Quarterfinals - We differ with Sagarin on all of these (casinos don't set lines on FCS games)...North Dakota St over Coastal Carolina, but we say it'll be close (7 points) while the computer says it's 16.5 points NDSU's way. Cut off is halfway (below 12)...We pick Sam Houston St to beat Villanova on the road by 3; Sagarin says it's a tossup (technically, Villanova by "0.02 points"!) We'll take any SHSU victory as our point...Finally, some northwest pride: Sagarin chooses Illinois St by 8 over Eastern Washington in Cheney; we don't think they'll survive the fire-red turf and are picking EWU to win. Winner of the game or overtime, we get the point. NDSU by exactly seven! Sam Houston by exactly three! Eastern Washington by... Um, bye-bye, actually. Lost, 59-46, so that point goes to Vegas, but otherwise it's FF 3, Vegas 1!

SUNDAY
Only the games where we disagree somehow... hmmm....on most of these, we're all three pretty close (within three points)...Pittsburgh by 1-3 - by seven, 27-20...New England by 7.5 to 9 - more like 41-13, Brady!...Kansas City by 9-10 (Sagarin's a little higher), and so was reality: 31-6, KC, getting revenge for three weeks ago...Indianapolis by 7-8 - exactly right: 17-10 Colts...Baltimore by 13-14 (again, Sagarin's a bit higher on these big-spread games) Ravens by 8, 20-12...Green Bay by 5-6 - Buffalo's defense stifles GB with style, wins 21-13...Carolina by 6-7 (with Cam Newton questionable, we're surprised we still agree) - actually, TB stayed close, losing 19-17...Cincinnati/Cleveland is within a point either way (and it depends on how you count a first-time starting QB for the Browns) Cincy 30-0 over Manziel. Coaching error to start him, in our opinion...Denver by 2-4 - won by 12...Detroit by 8-9 - won by two...Seattle by 10-11 - on the nose!...Philadelphia by 3.5 to 5 - a landmark win for the Cowboys!

Two games we disagree on - we have the Giants  over Washington by 3.5; Vegas says it's 7. Split the difference and say five is the tipping point - Whoops; casinos were right here; margin was eleven...and we actually think Tennessee will beat the Jets by 1; the casinos are saying New Jersey by 2. (Sagarin kinda agrees with us; Titans by "0.3"...) Winner takes the point. And that turned out to be the casinos when the Jets pulled one out of the fire with a 16-11 victory. We're all tired up! FF 3, Vegas 3! It will all depend on the Saints and Bears! Can't remember the last time we actively rooted for Chicago, but here's goes! Rah! Rah! Sis boom bah! 

MONDAY
We REALLY disagree here! - The casinos argue New Orleans will win by 3; we agree with Sagarin that the Bears should be 2.5 point favorites. Winner takes the point! AARGH! Saints win. We lose, 4-3. Bah, humbug. Da Bears looked "turrible" Monday night.... Don't know what you DO about the QB situation there, with Cutler contracted through another few years.

So, in the end we have a total of seven games to wage war on - three FCS playoffs, one NFL game Thursday night, two Sunday afternoon, and one more on Monday night. Hello! My name is Inigo Montoya. You tied me on predictions last week. Prepare to die...

We never covered how the predictions went this weekend...

...so here we go!

FBS games: Oregon beat Arizona BIG, 51-13 (point Vegas)...Marshall barely edged La-Tech (point us)...Connecticut not only lost to the spread but lost outright to previously winless SMU, 27-20 (point us)...Alabama whupped Missouri in the end, 42-13 (point them)...and we were correct to choose Ohio St over Wisconsin (they squeaked by the Badgers 59-0! - point us!) ----- Score: Vegas 2, FF 3!

FCS games: There were two on our "disagreement" list - we were correct in thinking that Sam Houston would give Jacksonville St fits; they did, and won 37-26. However, Illinois St handled Northern Iowa with ease, 41-21. So ------ Score: Vegas 3, FF 4!

NFL games: Going down the five games we marked (wish we'd thought to mark the Detroit/Tampa discrepancy; we would've won that one!)... St. Louis blanked the Redskins, 24-0 (point them)...the Giants wiped out the Titans, 36-7 (and knocked Tennessee to the Bottom slot, H32; point them)...we were right to think the Saints were in trouble, but even we didn't expect the offensive ineptitude we saw from a Drew Brees-led offense (point us)... Although Arizona won, they only won by three, so by a hair, (point Vegas)...and the Raiders dispatched their cross-bay rivals with ease, 24-13; (point FF). ------ FINAL Score: Vegas 6, FF 6. (Like I said...wished we'd claimed that Detroit game!)

Our pro football tiers and rankings for Week 14...

The biggest change at the top of the rankings is the emergence of the defending champs in Tier A, the Seattle Seahawks. Their threat is real - just ask Arizona and San Francisco!

At the other end of the spectrum, the Oakland Raiders have worked their way out of the dungeon, and left the Tennessee Titans at the bottom, following their evisceration at the hands of the New Jersey Giants. 

In between, the continuing demise of the 49ers and the Saints mystifies, and the continued bunched success of the AFC North invites a host of "what ifs?" for folks like us to ponder!

FF rank	Team	Div	OvRecord	ConfRc	DvRec
A1	Green Bay Packers	N-N	9-3	6-3	4-1
A2	New England Patriots	A-E	10-3	7-2	2-1
A3	Denver Broncos	A-W	10-3	8-1	4-0
A4	Seattle Seahawks	N-W	9-4	6-2	2-1
B5	Indianapolis Colts	A-S	9-4	7-3	4-0
B6	Philadelphia Eagles	N-E	9-4	5-4	3-0
B7	Dallas Cowboys	N-E	9-4	6-4	2-2
B8	Arizona Cardinals	N-W	10-3	7-2	2-1
C09	Detroit Lions	N-N	9-4	7-2	3-0
C10	Baltimore Ravens	A-N	8-5	4-5	2-3
C11	Pittsburgh Steelers	A-N	8-5	7-3	3-2
C12	Cincinnati Bengals	A-N	8-4-1	5-4	2-2
D13	San Diego Chargers	A-W	8-5	6-4	2-2
D14	Miami Dolphins	A-E	7-6	6-4	3-1
D15	Houston Texans	A-S	7-6	6-3	2-1
D16	Kansas City Chiefs	A-W	7-6	5-4	1-3
E17	Buffalo Bills	A-E	7-6	4-6	3-2
E18	Cleveland Browns	A-N	7-6	4-6	2-2
E19	St. Louis Rams	N-W	6-7	4-5	2-2
E20	San Francisco 49ers	N-W	7-6	6-4	1-3
F21	Minnesota Vikings	N-N	6-7	5-5	0-4
F22	Atlanta Falcons	N-S	5-7	5-4	4-0
F23	Carolina Panthers	N-S	4-8-1	4-6	2-2
F24	New Orleans Saints	N-S	5-8	4-5	2-2
G25	Chicago Bears	N-N	5-8	4-5	1-3
G26	New York Giants	N-E	4-9	2-7	1-3
G27	Washington Redskins	N-E	3-10	1-8	1-2
G28	New York Jets	A-E	2-11	2-7	0-4
H29	Oakland Raiders	A-W	2-11	1-8	1-3
H30	Tampa Buccaneers	N-S	2-11	1-8	0-4
H31	Jacksonville Jaguars	A-S	2-11	1-8	0-3
H32	Tennessee Titans	A-S	2-11	2-7	1-3

Bill Barnwell hits the nail on the head (as usual!)

In his week in review column for Grantland, Bill Barnwell addresses most of the interesting items of the NFL weekend, including the Beckham Jr. catch, of course, but also Mike Smith's terrible coaching in the fourth quarter that allowed Cleveland to come back against his Falcons, T.Y. Hilton's exceptional day (his wife gave birth in the morning before his great game for the Colts), and the "Rabona" onside kick from Miami's Caleb Sturgis - a thing of brilliance...

HERE'S a QUICK REVIEW of the WEEKEND'S WILD THANGS!

As an Idaho resident for twenty-three years, it warmed my heart to see Boise State's homage to their 2007 Fiesta Bowl victory, pulled off in their 63-14 rout of Wyoming Saturday night. Check out this video of Grant Hedrick and Jay Ajayi being Jared Zabransky and Ian Johnson, once again scoring on an unsuspecting defense whose film study didn't go seven years back, for some strange reason!

Here's as great a game-ending play as you'll see most weekends - Hawaii came all the way back with a drive and a score with one second left on the clock to defeat UNLV in the final home game for the islanders. Sure, it only brought the Warriors to 4-8, and they're still not going to a bowl (or in their case, staying at a bowl), but I'll bet it felt like a bowl win!

The Tennessee Volunteers pulled off a great fake field goal for an easy touchdown in their game against Missouri Saturday - and for those expecting a Lambeau Leap, at least one was tangibly and physically disappointed...

You've seen the accidental kicks that get caught - the deflections and such. Here's a frankly silly one in the Oregon-Colorado game that encapsulates what the Buffaloes' season is all about.

Here's a classic one-handed grab by Virginia's Cannan Severin in their win  over Miami of Florida that helped edge them closer to bowl eligibility...

...but for sheer AWESOMENESS, it's difficult to imagine that ANYONE is going to top the legend-in-the-making from LSU, Odell Beckham Jr., who made the most impossible catch you will ever see - and he made it in a prime-time game for the NFL's New York Giants against Dallas on Sunday Night Football. Commentator after commentator have said that it's the greatest catch they've ever seen, and I have to admit I'm hard pressed to top it. The one that comes to mind, ironically, was also a Giant: David Tyree in the Super Bowl, against the side of his helmet, to beat the 18-0 Patriots. It wins for context; this wins for skill level.  

We suffer from "premature tiering"!

Even with 1 1/2 games to go this weekend, we're ready to separate the NFL into eight tiers after Week Ten, although the gaps at the top are rather narrow!

Bottom Four: We're promoting the Jets after their upset win over the Steelers, which leaves us the Raiders, Jaguars, Bucs, and Titans.

Next Four Up: Four teams with moments of glory and weeks of misery - the Rams, Jets, Falcons, and Bears.

Tier Six: Four mediocre, non-descript teams on the field with interesting issues off it - the Vikings (Adrian Peterson), Redskins (RG3), Texans (JJWatt the celebrity), and the NYG (they're in New York).

Tier Five: These four teams seem to be good, and yet... they're still the Saints, Niners, Panthers, and Bills.

Tier Four: Now, we're in the upper half of the league, and these four teams could very well be in the playoffs in nine weeks - or not? Consistency! We'll just have to see what happens with the Seahawks, Chiefs, Dolphins, and Chargers.

Tier AFC North: Literally. How do you separate the Browns, Bengals, Steelers, and Ravens right now? Arguably, they may not be teams #9-12, but they belong together until someone makes a move (one direction or the other!).

Top Eight, Subdivided: The divisions here are a bit muddy, but let's see what makes sense - certainly the Cardinals and Broncos are up there, and the next two teams, Patriots and Packers, may or may not be below them. The Colts, Cowboys, and Eagles all sit very snugly up there next to them, and if we have to choose a number eight, the 7-2 Lions would probably be there. But these are the eight best in the league right now; interestingly, five are from the NFC and three from the AFC (but seven of our next eight are, too!).

As usual, an erudite analysis by Bill Barnwell

Grantland's Bill Barnwell has a great piece on the NFL at the midpoint of the season, and what statistical trends we can expect to "regress towards the norm" (hint: the Cardinals aren't going 7-1 in the second half of the season, folks).