Weekend Wapp-up Wezults...

Moral of the story... letting family come in the way of football hurts your prognostication prowess! (On the other hand, letting football come in the way of family is FAR WORSE CRIME.) We did well with the Aussies; no complaints on the CFL or NFL, although they could've been better; but our college predictions, so good last week, were well under five-hundred yesterday - while our Saturday was (more appropriately) spent with the oldest son off at college visiting (and stocking his pantry and gas tank!). Nevertheless: priorities, priorities...

CFL: Hard to complain when we go 1-3, partly because this season is NUTS in the CFL, partly because we still outscored many experts! However, we went 1-2-1 against the spread, getting a win from Hamilton (appropriate, as that's the son's name!) and a push from the Winnipeg/Saskatchewan game, while Ottawa and Edmonton pulled the mild upsets.

AFL: Hit three of the four out of the park - it will indeed be West Coast and Fremantle hosting the preliminary finals in west Australia in two weeks, and Adelaide did manage to beat the Western Bulldogs on the <ahem> "home" grounds of the MCG by seven points; our one miss was Richmond's loss at the hands of the well-rested North Melbourne Kangaroos, who were allowed to rest half their team last week in prep for this game. North plays at Sydney next Saturday, and Adelaide plays at Hawthorn on Friday; the winners return to west Australia the following weekend for the shot at the Grand Final.

NFL: Went 7-7 so far against the spread (NOTE to the uninitiated: the NFL is the HARDEST to make a living at betting on because of the parity of the league. Our model assumes only about a fourteen point gap from team 1 to team 32 on the best of days; certain conditions reduce that even further.) and 8-6 straight up, with two more games to go tomorrow night. Very impressed with Buffalo, Tennessee, and Cincy today!

NCAA: Well, let's see...
--> TOP TIER GAMES: Oddly, we were 3-0 against the spread but only 1-2 straight up. (Check the original post for the specific games and predictions - too many to list!) Oregon and Mississippi St covered, but only the Sooners came through for the win.

--> OTHER GAMES OF INTEREST: We went 12-4 straight up (with some more leaners that I should have been more explicit about claiming) but only 9-13 against the spread. (Particularly proud of picking in Houston's favor!)

-->BLOWOUTS: Of course all thirteen won (ahem - we're looking at YOU, Auburn! Very pleased for Jacksonville St!) but we only picked the right side of the spread explosion on five of the thirteen.

--> OTHER FBS: Actually, we did better on these than I thought we had... we went 15-11 against the spread, which we'll take; and we were 24-2 straight up (the two upsets being Bowling Green's rout of Big Ten's Maryland, 48-27 IN Maryland, and the worst of the SEC wounds, Arkansas' 16-12 loss to Toledo from the MAC, 16-12).  So, over all in the FBS choices, we went 32-32 against the spread - coin toss - and 50-8 straight up.

--> FCS GAMES: Here is where we fell on our faces... we may have managed 11-6 straight up (not as impressive as it sounds) but we were an abysmal 4-13 against the spread in the FCS only games. We plead ignorance, but we were the ones who picked which games to name, so that's no excuse. We did slightly better overall in the FCS games, and while our overall betting record this week was 61-14 straight up and just 36-45 against the spread; our record including games we didn't share ahead of time was three below 50% on points. (Can't claim it, though, unless we'd said it first.)

....OVERALL, then, here are our 2015 records so far:
AFL - 146 right and 55 wrong overall; 118-83 against the spread.
CFL - 27 right and 21 wrong overall.
NFL - 7 and 7 overall; 8 and 6 against the spread; two games still pending.
NCAA - 131 and 24 overall; 83 right against the spread and 72 wrong. 

Youw Weekend Wesults!

Along the four fronts we call home here at Following Football ACNC, results for the weekend are all in, and they're still sparse enough for us to cover everything in one post...so here we go! 

Australian Footy: As we posted Friday morning, the final eight are set, with still one final home-and-away round to go next weekend. In fact, given the results of the Round 22 games, even the placements are pretty secure, at least for the top four (which, some would argue, are all that matter in the AFL).

Fremantle doubled up Melbourne, 108-54, clinching the top spot and the first "minor premiership" (regular season championship)in their twenty-something year history! They will host a game in Fremantle against the number 4 seed, almost certainly Sydney, who wiped out St. Kilda 135-38 Sunday and needs just a win against injury-riddled Gold Coast to secure the trip west.

Meanwhile, the West Coast Eagles, who had a chance to catch the Dockers, lost that chance and possibly their key defense back to a shoulder injury when Adelaide utterly obliterated them 51-1 in the first quarter, and won the game by 57 in cruise control. West Coast shouldn't have those problems against the above mentioned St. Kilda team, and would then host the #2/#3 game in Perth against the two-time premier defenders, the Hawthorn Hawks, who did beat the Eagles (in PERTH!) a few weeks back but who would finish third assuming WC takes care of business (and Hawthorn beats Carlton, whom our FF Ratings have them favored to beat by almost ninety points!) The winners of these two Qualifying Finals get the next weekend off and host the survivors of the semifinals, which the losers would then have to play against the winners of the other two games...

...which pit seeds eight at five and seven at six next weekend. The four teams are set, but not the order. Western earned a likely home game by beating the Kangaroos 96-73, and will only have to defeat last-place Brisbane to secure that spot. The other likely host is Richmond, 74-47 winners over beleaguered Essendon Saturday, who will host North Melbourne's Roos in what may very well be the first of a two-weekend double header if the Tigers hold serve at home as they're favored to do. Meanwhile, Western will probably host Adelaide, on a steamroll at the moment as described above (although they played recently and the Bulldogs did beat the Crows). 

In other, less meaningful games, GWS beat Carlton 130-51, Collingwood ended the meaning of Geelong's season as mentioned Friday, 110-62, and Port Adelaide continued to irritate Power supporters by showing how good they CAN be and whomping Gold Coast 88-51.

Canadian Football: Labor Day Monday is shaping up to be a doubleheader barnburner up north, as four teams are separating from the pack. Calgary beat Winnipeg on the road handily, 36-8, to go to a league-leading 7 and 2 record at the halfway mark of the season. (Winnipeg is 3-6.) Edmonton sits one game back in the west at 6-3, overpowering Toronto 38-15, knocking the Argos back to 6-3 as well. Finally, Hamilton fell to 6-3 as well, allowing Montreal to climb within one game of .500, upset by the Alouettes 26-23. Those four teams at 6-3 and above play each other on Sept 7 in clashes that will decide the leader of each division: Edmonton at Calgary, and Toronto at Hamilton. Who's the next best team, at 5-4? Why, it's the surprising Ottawa Redblacks, who sent poor Saskatchewan to its ninth straight loss today with a 35-13 walkthrough.

NCAA Football: Sure, it's "only" FCS, but the D1 season got off to a BANG of a start Saturday with the five-time defending champion North Dakota St Bison traveling to the hardest place to play in the FCS - Missoula - to play the #12 ranked Montana Grizzlies. The game was everything it should have been and more: legendary lower division coach Bob Stitt made his FCS debut at UM with his unique flying offense, and was rewarded with a last second touchdown to upset the Bison, 38-35. As Brent Musberger said on air, if that's what we have to look forward to in 2015, bring it on! Several D3 and NAIA games took place on the 27th as well, including one of local interest for us - the College of Idaho upset the #13 (NAIA) Southern Oregon visitors 40-21 to open their season: particularly exciting for a team in its second year of existence. In fact, this blog was born the same day the Yotes played their first game! So, congratulations, birthmates! Here's hoping we BOTH have that kind of success all season long!

NFL Football: Of course, everyone is zero-and-zero right now! The games this weekend weren't particularly newsworthy in a specific sense, but there were teams that looked better than others - Oakland impressed tonight (at least, their first teams did), and so did Buffalo's and Cleveland's. Tom Brady finallly one good drive, his last before the DeflateGate case is settled and any punishment is served. Michael Vick had a good outing with the Bills; Sam Bradford has looked good for the Eagles; Nick Foles for the Rams, and Alex Smith for the Chiefs. Later this week, maybe on Thursday or Friday, we'll put together our Opening Tiers for the pro and college FBS levels of American football - very broad categories, no more than three or four tiers in total, which will serve as our starting points for the Following Football predictions to come this season. THIS IS AN IMPORTANT POINT: we may have gone out on a limb and made some bold predictions as to the overall seasons the teams will have, but for GAME by GAME predictions? We will base our projections SOLELY on the work the teams are doing THIS YEAR, as much as possible, and the same goes for our "rankings". The FBS "rankings" will have something like a 32-way tie for first before we get underway, and THOSE only because there are certain things that are immutable from season to season. (Oklahoma will NOT be worse than Georgia State. I guarantee it.)

UPS and DOWNS for AUGUST WEEK 4!

Things are looking UP if you're a fan of young quarterbacks!

This weekend saw some very positive performances from the two start 2015 draft picks, Marcus Mariota in Tennessee and Jamies Winston in Tampa Bay! Both started for their teams, both have had glowing reports for their performances and behavior in camp (when was the last negative Winston story you've heard?), and this weekend they each demonstrated their command of the new offenses they've been hired to run. Remember, these two teams were 2-14 last year, and there are STILL a ton of problems, but they look to have the possibility of strong leadership in the pocket for a while to come. (The caveat of the dangers of injury for a scampering quarterback come into play, Right, RG3?) More exciting for us was the strong performances of Johnny Manziel in Cleveland, who looks to actually be challenging for a starting position, as does EJ Manuel in Buffalo, although in his case it's to regain it. MOST exciting, if you really think about it, is the play of Teddy Bridgewater in Minnesota. He went 10-14 this weekend with a TD, and his leadership of that young Viking team is remarkable. Between him and the young coach Mike Zimmer, there are some truly amazing possibilities for a team that suddenly can combine a competent defense and a good passing game with the god-like running abilities of excoriated running back Adrian Peterson, back from suspension for child abuse. (Understand. please: I'm a teacher. I have five children myself. You do not whomp a child the way Mr. Peterson did. Having said that, he has served his punishment. Welcome him back, and let the man do the job he was trained to make a living at.)

Things are looking DOWN if you're a fan of COLLINGWOOD or ESSENDON.

There are so many good stories in the AFL - the one-two western punch of Freo and West Coast; the ascendance of the young GWS and St. Kilda clubs, the strength and stability of the traditionally erratic Richmond and North Melbourne teams, the possibility of a three-peat from the amazingly talented Hawthorn Hawks, and most excitingly, the run-and-gun style of play that's made the Western Bulldogs one of the scariest teams in the league.

But there are downsides, too, and they are mostly based in Melbourne. The Carlton Football club looks destined to have the first draft choice, so pathetic was their season. But they looked like they'd be down the ladder to begin with (Following Football had them forecast for three wins in February, and we're two weeks from being proven right). Melbourne was at the bottom of the ladder for the last several years, save for the newbie teams, and for them five wins is progress.

Collingwood and Essendon, however, should have been playing finals football this year, instead of losing games by one hundred points as a regular occurrence. For Essendon, the causes are straightforward: the drug scandal of 2012-13, where the medical staff injected players with steroids and other WADA-banned substances without the players' consent, continues to haunt the team. 34 players still do not know with certainty if they might face punitive action down the road, even if they had no part in the illegal actions for which the entire Essendon hierarchy has now lost their jobs. The other cause, frankly, is the now-fired (excuse me: "retired") head coach, James Hird, an Essendon legend as a player, who may or may not have been part of the drug plans but certainly threw gasoline on the fire over the last two years with his bizarre and inexplicable actions both on and off the field. The list of problems under his watch are far too numerous to list here, but the combination of apathy, hypocrisy, and arrogance made him a sadly comical figure by the time the end mercifully arrived Tuesday. Unsurprisingly, the Bombers played with more emotion this weekend, losing by just two points to an under manned Gold Coast team that they should've run into the ground, but who under Hird they probably would've lost to in the second quarter.

As for Collingwood, their problems are only beginning. 8-3 at the midpoint for the second season in a row, they hit a rough stretch of the season where they had to play Fremantle, Hawthorn, Port, and West Coast in a row. Not all that surprisingly, they lost all four, but were competitive in all of them...until the end of the Eagles game. Then came a game against Western, and despite being favored, they let the Bulldogs beat them. Finally, they got a break (at 8-8 and no longer in the top 8) and get to play lowly Melbourne...and lost to them by 37 points. Now it's hit the fan. They somehow manage to beat bottomfeeder Carlton, by just 18, and then give top four Sydney a run before losing 87-76 in Sydney. Great, we're back on track... until this weekend, when Richmond not only beats them, but utterly obliterates them, 147-56, and the Magpies looked like they didn't want to play. At all. Geelong is probably licking their chops right now, waiting for the Pies to show up in uniform only this weekend, uninterested in competing against the Cats. 

Both teams should lose this weekend, and then a fascinating game awaits for the last match of the season, on a Sunday afternoon on September 6th: Collingwood v Essendon, with absolutely nothing on the line - probably five or six wins apiece at that moment, so far out of finals that the game was relegated to that last time slot while all the teams who'll still be playing next week are home resting by then.

WEEKEND WESULTS - a day late!

Sometimes the first day of the school year slaps you in the face... and you don't get your Monday blog post out on time! (And sometimes you don't get it out on time and there's no good excuse at all!)

SO, here's your very-late-Monday recap of the weekend's action!

IN THE AFL this weekend, Friday night saw some unexpected clarity come to the top of the ladder when Hawthorn was upset by Port Adelaide 108-86, in Adelaide, in a game that's GOT to make the Power supporters wonder where THAT effort had been all season! Along with West Coast's fourth quarter annihilation of the gallant Western Bulldogs, which ended 162-85 but which was much closer until the last nine goals went the Eagles' way, the two top positions were solidified and Domain Stadium in Perth is going to get a LOT of use in September, hosting BOTH Fremantle and West Coast's games. The road to the first Saturday in October runs through Australia's southwest coast.

Of the other results, Fremantle's loss to the Kangaroos may be the most significant - combined with Adelaide's 131-44 rout of Brisbane, the final eight are fairly close to set. Sydney overran GWS 133-44 to re-take fourth spot, and with fairly easy games to finish the season should be able to maintain that lead over Western, Richmond (147-56 over pathetic Collingwood), and North Melbourne. Only Adelaide is still not quite secure, as a loss to West Coast next week could set up a winner take all game in the final round with Geelong, whose surprising draw with St. Kilda left them a game and a half out but in a position to climb past the Crows with two final wins.

To the Canadian Footballers, Toronto came back from the brink again to beat Ottawa 30-24; Calgary held off winless Saskatchewan 34-31; Montreal won over BC 23-13, and once again, Hamilton overwhelmed Edmonton 49-20. All nine teams have their first bye behind them now, so with eight games each across the board, the three teams who've managed six wins are Hamilton and Toronto in the East, and the defenders Calgary in the West, with Edmonton at 5-3 right behind them. Second-year Ottawa manages a 4-4 record, already doubling last year's win total even with two come-from ahead losses, while Montreal, Winnipeg, and the BC Lions sit in striking distance at 3-5. Saskatchewan, one of the favorites coming into the season, somehow is left still seeking win number one, at 0-8, six games back with ten to play.With two-thirds of the teams making the playoffs, they're only three games out of a playoff position, but still...there's a lot to do.

As for the NFL, there were some very educational games this weekend! We learned that the Redskins are in more trouble than we thought, if they keep getting RG3 hurt like they have. We learned that both Johnny Manziel and EJ Manuel have quarterbacking futures in Cleveland and Buffalo, respectively. We learned Ryan Tannehill may actually deserve the money Miami gave him. We learned Peyton Manning may have nerve issues in his fingertips that are going to continue to cause him cold/wet weather issues like (apparently) they did last winter in the playoffs for Denver. We learned that the Jets aren't as bad off as we'd feared, that the Chiefs have some hope, that the Seahawks are NOT going to show their cards any time soon, We learned that thanks to the Philadelphia Eagles, both Sam Bradford and Tim Tebow have second life in the NFL. We learned that the QB future of the league is bright, thanks to strong showings from youngsters like Jamies Winston in Tampa, Marcus Mariota in Tennessee, and most especially Teddy Bridgewater in Minnesota, who has erased the word "future" from his title. But most of all, we learned that what we love about football is watching when 303-pound Mike Purcell intercepts a pass for the 49ers and runs a third of the length of the field back for a fat guy touchdown! FAT GUY TD's ARE OUR RAISON d'EXISTENCE!

Now...about the NFL trade period...wow!

We don't even know where to start. 

St. Louis and the Philadelphia Kellys trading starting quarterbacks?

New Orleans having a fire sale?

San Francisco losing all these great players (and coaches!) and then picking up a ton of new ones as well?

The entire AFC East getting TONS better? Especially Buffalo - that's my new co-favorite (because until New England falls, I'm not betting against them...).

Seattle getting Jimmy Graham? Dallas losing DeMarco Murray? Miami signing Ndamukong Suh? (I spelled that without looking it up! Proud of me!)

And what will the Eagles look like when Chip gets done?

I think the best advice I've heard, and many wise pundits have repeated it many times, is this: It's only March 16, people. There's plenty of time - there are many more dominoes to fall - the draft is still coming. 

When the dust settles and summer arrives...then we can make our evaluations.

(But it's going to be fun to see what those teams we've named in particular look like then!)

Here is the latest update from Rotoworld and NBC Sports as to where each of the free agents in the NFL has signed ...

The Philadelphia Kellys are rounding into shape...

Good piece today by Don Banks of SI.com on the Eagles/Bills trade that sent LeSean McCoy packing to Buffalo... more than ever, Chip Kelly plans on making the Eagles over in his own image, and anyone that doesn't fit with the scheme will be replaced, no matter how special a talent they might be (and make NO mistake: McCoy is a GREAT player). 

The definition of weasel.

When Doug Marrone left the Buffalo Bills head coaching job last week, I thought it was entirely the money. (The greatest coaching contract in NFL history paid Marrone four million dollars duty free if he left after an ownership change, and he can still take any other job AND get paid for that job, too.)

Nope.

It's the mark of a true weasel coach. And here's how I know:

On Monday, December 29, Buffalo quarterback Kyle Orton, at a spot in his career when he might retire any year now, decided he would retire. Head coach Doug Marrone was personally and publicly offended that Orton would quit without telling anybody in advance.

On Wednesday, December 31, head coach Doug Marrone quit without telling anybody in advance.

Ohhhhhh. Now I get it. I thought he was just a bad coach.

Looking through the NFL final standings,...

...there are, as always, some curious records within the records. Here are a few of them...

8-0 at home) Both Green Bay and Denver were not only perfect at home, but 11-0 overall on grass this season (and thus 1-4 on turf!).

8-0 on the road) Strangely, Dallas went just 4-4 in their luxurious digs, but undefeated on the road.

0-8 on the road) Two young teams, Oakland and Jacksonville, managed three wins at home but went winless on the road. Not that weird...

0-8 at home) But the only two wins Tampa Bay got this year were away from home, at Washington (okay) and at Pittsburgh (arguably the biggest upset of the year). Tampa was also the only team to go 0-6 in their division (and in the worst division in football, no less).

The definition of average) Not only did the Miami Dolphins go 8-8, but they were 4-4 at home, 4-4 on the road, 3-3 in the division and 6-6 in the conference (and thus 2-2 against the NFC). Their point differential was just fifteen points to the good, too; San Diego, on the other hand, wound up scoring 348 points and allowing 348 points as well, though they went 9-7.

6-0 in the division) Indianapolis and Denver both went lossless within their division, and won the division with ease. (Had Atlanta held home field today, they would've won the division by going 6-0 in the division and 1-9 everywhere else!)

Overtime champs) Oddly, Minnesota was the only club to win two overtime games this season, going 2-0 (defeating the Jets and Buccaneers).

Carolina "wins" the NFC South) despite scoring 35 fewer points than their opponents, and despite losing every game between Columbus Day (Oct 12) and Pearl Harbor Day (Dec 7). In fact, no team in the division had a winning record at home OR on the road this year.

Looking at the way divisions played each other, the NFC East went 12-4 over the AFC South (and Dallas and Philly both went 4-0); the AFC North managed to go 12-3-1 over the NFC South (with Cincinnati and Baltimore combining to go 7-0-1); and the NFC West went 12-4 against the NFC East (the Rams only went 1-3, though, beating Washington, while the other three teams went 11-1 against their eastern brethren).

Finally, Buffalo may regret its 1-3 record against the AFC West, while the New England Pats went 4-0 against the same teams. The two clubs went 8-4 in all their other games, so those interdivision matchups cost the Bills the division!

Awesome. Maybe "NFL" isn't "no fun league" after all...

Remember when the Bills' home game against the Jets was snowed out, and they had to move the game to Detroit? The Lions weren't home that week, so Ford Field was available - it was still an inconvenience, we're sure, but in the end the big picture is what counted to the Lions.

Well, apparently the Bills were very appreciative...

NFL predictions for the penultimate Week 16!

(There's your "word of the day" - "penultimate"! The one before the 'ultimate', the second to last. Use it in conversation once today!)

Here are the predictions for the sixteen games played on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday this week in the National Football League, from four sources: Following Football's tiered rankings, Sagarin ratings, the Vegas casino consensus, AND the "Elo rating system" from the website Five-Thirty-Eight, run by the quasi-legendary Nate Silver. Elo has been used in chess for decades, maybe centuries; and it's just now developing a following in other activities. It's actually very simple, and it's the basis for Following Football's Australian Rules Footy ranking system introduced last week: When you beat a team, your rating goes UP and theirs goes DOWN by exactly the same amount. How MUCH depends on how your ratings compared to begin with: if you beat a team you're "supposed" to beat, it won't change very much, but if it's an upset, the change will be more radical. [Word to the prudent: I'm estimating the change factors for this week because 538 hasn't published its actual predictions for Week 16 as of Tuesday; I will update this post when they do so, probably Thursday afternoon.]

So, here's Week 16!

THUR                                          FF Tiers        Vegas line        Sagarin        Elo Ratings
Tennessee @ Jacksonville             Jax -3              Jax -3                 Jax - 3.0            Jax - 1.0
SAT
Philadelphia @ Washington         Phi -7               Phi -9                 Phi - 9.3            Phi - 7.5
San Diego @ San Francisco   EVEN            SF - 2                SD - 0.7           SF - 2.0
SUN
Minnesota @ Miami                      Mia -5              Mia -7                Mia -8.1            Mia -4.0
Baltimore @ Houston              HOU -1          BAL - 6            BAL -1.2         Bal -2.5
Detroit @ Chicago                         Det -5              Det -7                 Det - 4.0           Det -2.5
Cleveland @ Carolina                    Car - 1              Car - 4                Car - 1.0           Car - 4.0
Atlanta @ New Orleans                  NO - 2             NO - 6.5             NO -3.1             NO - 3.0
Green Bay @ Tampa Bay               GB -11              GB - 10.5           GB - 11.3           GB - 8.0
Kansas City @ Pittsburgh              Pit -4.5            Pit - 3.5              KC - 1.9           Pit - 3.0
New England @ New York Jets    NE -10.5          NE -10.5           NE -15.2          NE - 10.5
New York Giants @ St. Louis        StL - 6.5           StL -5                StL - 5.9            StL -4.5
Buffalo @ Oakland                        Buf - 5              Buf -6                Buf - 9.3          Buf -3.5
Indianapolis @ Dallas                   Dal -1                Dal -3                Indy -1.1         Dal -1.0
Seattle @ Arizona                      Ariz -2            Sea -9             Ariz -0.6         Sea -2.0
MON
Devner @ Cincinnati                      Den - 1              Den - 3.5           Den -5.4            Den -2.5     

So, a couple of observations...
   The three games that we'll put on the "betting block" this week are (as noted above) Baltimore at Houston (we like the Texans at home; Vegas thinks it's the Ravens all the way, with the computers backing them to a slight degree - we'll claim the point if the game goes into overtime or Houston wins outright), San Diego at San Francisco (we've always believed that Vegas loves the 49ers because of all the Northern CA money that comes across the Sierras to bet on them - again, if SD wins or there's OT, we'll claim the point), and the defacto NFC West title game, Seattle at Arizona (HUGE discrepancy here - Sagarin agrees with us that the Cardinals are the favorites at home; Elo agrees with Vegas that the defenders should be favored. We'll take Seattle -2.5 as the tipping point; anything above that is Vegas' point.).

   Sagarin's ratings differ from all other projections in four other Sunday games, marked above: they seem to have a fetish for Kansas City (preferring them IN Pittsburgh!), New England (fifteen points in an NFL game is HUGE!), Buffalo (we love the Bills' defense, too, but Oakland ALWAYS plays strong!), and Indianapolis (to be fair and honest, we didn't give Dallas their supposed "home field advantage this week, because they're 3-4 at home and 7-0 on the road this year!). Or maybe it's that they don't like their opponents (Pittsburgh, the Jets, Oakland, and Dallas)? It'll be interesting to see. Notice that the Elo ratings never seem to deviate TOO far from the norms.

   Our record so far this year is down to 35-33-3, indicative of sheer guesswork. But I feel comfortable with our "guesswork" this year, and we'll continue to refine the system so it'll work everywhere (except maybe in the NFL, where parity is mandated!) We were actually ahead 3-1 last week after Saturday, but we lost all three of the PRO games, including last night's smashing of the Bears by the resurgent (for the moment) Saints. [By the way, with the win, the Saints move into the theoretical driver's seat with the wretched NFC South; they can (and should) win out to win the division at 8-8!]

Sunday, Dec 14th in the NFL...

So, a few thoughts as the day progresses...

So, Cleveland coach Mike Pettine...are you satisfied with your decision to start the rookie? 30-0? Interceptions galore?  Continual taunting from Bengals players with the stupid "money gesture" of Manziel's? No chance to win?

If you're going to win a game with your defense, as Buffalo was doing,  the best way to seal it is to have magical defensive end Mario Williams strip Aaron Rodgers, knock the ball into the end zone, and use the old anti-fumble-forward rule to put the ball dead in the end zone for a safety! 

We were wrong to think Washngton would be able to hang with Odell Beckham Jr.  and the New Jersey Giants - the Blue men won 24-13, closing our competition gap to Following Football 3, Vegas casinos, 2. 

Thanks to an early safety by Tennessee's defense, the scores in the Jets/Titans game were fun to watch scroll across the screen: 5-3...8-3...11-3...11-10...and then the Jets pulled out the win with the first 16-11 score in NFL HISTORY!...and thereby ruined their chances for the first draft pick! It's a strange world...

Dallas Cowboys, take a bow! Yes, you won; yes, you now control the division, etc. But here's the thing: when you went up 21-0, all cylinders firing, that's fine...you've done that. Then Philly came back to blow past you to 24-21, and every sportswriter in America was preparing their lede: "Cowboys blow another one", etc. But you didn't. You immediately put together the most important drive of Coach Garrett's career, threw the pass to the god-like Dez Bryant, and put the game back on cruise control. That was something we DO NOT EXPECT from you, 8-8 Cowboys! But now, at 10-4 and in control of your destiny, we can expect a top finish from you! Congratulations! 

If anyone sees Buffalo, please report it to missing persons...

Last night's game between Kent St and Buffalo was cancelled on account of the 5-6 feet of lake effect snow that's swamping the city of Buffalo over the last 48 hours, with more on the way today. Here's an article from NBC News on the record snowfall - and "record snowfall" for Buffalo is really saying something!

How will it affect the potential game there Sunday between the Bills and the NY Jets? 

Firstly, if it can't be played, it can't be played. Odds are neither team will need to make it up, to be blunt - certainly not the Jersey Jettisons, and (alas) probably not Buffalo with twelve teams in the AFC at .500 or above right now fighting for six playoff spots.

But secondly, the Buffalo team can't even practice right now. They're conferencing via internet, studying film at home, and that sort of thing, because that's all they CAN do. 

Mark Schlereth of ESPN had some great points this morning, speaking on "Mike and Mike In The Morning" on ESPN Radio. The skills that every pro athlete uses every game - footwork, handwork, etc. - has to be honed every day in practice. Like a fine musician, missing one day of practice is devastating; missing a week is deadly. But his other point is more frightening - just because these athletes are paid doesn't mean they TRAIN like professionals. How many of the Buffalo players are treating this like a mini-vacation? Even if unintentionally, it's too easy to sit back, play with the kids, scan the sattelite dish for old movies or new sports, instead of working on your job, the one you're paid to be outstanding at. Come Sunday, assuming the game goes on, we may discover who on the Buffalo team made constructive use of the snow time - and who didn't.

And as for the professionals...

The Canadian Football League wraps up its regular season Friday and Saturday with four games that will settle the remaining playoff questions - Ottawa @ Toronto (a typical Redblack game: Ottawa will give Toronto all it can handle before losing to the Argos late); Calgary @ British Columbia (the game hinges on how seriously the Stampeders take the game - if it's a chance to rest the starters, the Lions win); Montreal @ Hamilton (the BIG GAME of the weekend, this will determine the Eastern champ - we think Hamilton wins, but by less than the eight points they need to dethrone Montreal as division champs); and Edmonton @ Saskatchewan (the Roughriders are fading fast - take the Eskimos to win big).

In the NFL, tonight's Cincy/Cleveland game will be fascinating - the Bengals deserve to be a TD fave at home, but they're so strange...Sunday's KC @ Buffalo could go either way, but they're two teams that both have potential to bust some chops this season...Same with Miami @ Detroit...We are fascinated by the Dallas/Jacksonville tilt in London - Tony Romo has to fly across the Atlantic with a bad back? Good luck, man... San Francisco @ New Orleans feels like an elimination game; loser has NO chance at the playoffs (except NO plays in the pathetic (this year) NFC South...Can Oakland keep Denver close, like they have Seattle and others? Possible...We don't see St. Louis staying within 7 points of Arizona in any universe, with any quarterback, this season...Similarly, there's no way that Chicago can stay within a touchdown of Green Bay unless the weather makes the game unplayable...Carolina @ Philly? Wow. Do you have less faith in the fading Panthers, or in the legendary Mark Sanchez? Admittedly, he looked good in relief last week, and reports are he's ten times more comfortable with Chip Kelly and Philly than Rex Ryan and New York...but if Sanchez is your guy, you're NOT Super Bowl bound. I'm jus' sayin'...

As usual, an erudite analysis by Bill Barnwell

Grantland's Bill Barnwell has a great piece on the NFL at the midpoint of the season, and what statistical trends we can expect to "regress towards the norm" (hint: the Cardinals aren't going 7-1 in the second half of the season, folks).

Don't blame US if the pro tiers for Week 8 are imbalanced!

Blame the teams! We literally gave up trying to make the number of teams in each tier balance and went back to our guiding principle: Put teams that would play even games on a neutral field in the same tier. That means the chart looks more like a bell-curve than a flat line, but so be it! By the end of the season, it'll straighten itself out!

So, here we go: Quintile A is comprised of the teams we think are in control of their own Super Bowl destiny - they'd probably be favored over teams from B and C teams without issue; they'd be favored by double digits over Quintile D teams, and the E teams should find a way to call in sick...

Denver Broncos (6-1, firing on all cylinders)
Arizona Cardinals (6-1, sneaky good - finding a way to win every week)
Philadelphia Eagles (5-2, no shame losing 24-20 at Arizona!)
Dallas Cowboys (6-2, and we'll give them a pass for the OT loss last night)
Indianapolis Colts (5-3, but would you want to face Luck in a big game?)
New England Patriots (6-2, we had to move them back up - Brady's too good)

Quintile B has the teams who can still justifiably argue they are championship contenders, although they'd be underdogs playing the above six...

Green Bay Packers (5-3, more for Aaron Rodgers' health than anything else)
Detroit Lions (6-2, but if it takes THAT to beat the Falcons...)
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3, can't exclude them after Big Ben's performance Sunday!)
Cincinnati Bengals (4-2-1, still as fiery a contender as there is)
Baltimore Ravens (5-3, and in charge of their destiny)
San Diego Chargers (5-3, though they proved against Denver they're not top notch yet)
San Francisco 49ers (4-3, struggling, but it's hard to ignore the teams they've beaten)
Seattle Seahawks (4-3, see previous comment!)

Quintile C is the middle of the pack:

Buffalo Bills (5-3, we think they're above average, but they don't yet...)
Kansas City Chiefs (4-3, and maybe, just maybe...)
Miami Dolphins (4-3, on any given day...)
Carolina Panthers (3-4-1, and like all the others in group C, has the tools...)
New Orleans Saints (3-4, fabulous if they're at home. IF.)
Houston Texans (4-4, give us eleven JJ Watts and we can rule the world)
Cleveland Browns (4-3, beating the Raiders shouldn't count)

Quintile D teams are already giving up hope for this season...

Chicago Bears (3-5, they should be higher if we go on potential)
St. Louis Rams (2-5, but every once in a while, they rise up...)
New Yorkersey Giants (3-4, but really they're not that good)
Atlanta Falcons (2-6, how can a team look that good in the first half...)
Minnesota Vikings (3-5, and if Bridgewater pans out, on their way up...)
Washington Redskins (3-5, promoted after winning in Dallas, even if it's overtime)

Quintile E teams are the bye weeks in disguise:

Tennessee Titans (2-6, but that's deceptively good...)
New Yorkersey Jets (1-7, Geno Smith put up one of the classic terrible stat lines in history)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-7, does the guy in the Bud Light commercial want to change his living room and backyard back to how they were before?)
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7, how did they ever win a game?)
Oakland Raiders (0-7, but they've at least been competitive!)

Forecasts for Week 8!

Looking through the oddsmakers' choices and spreads (and again, we do not advocate betting on football or any sport! It's just a device we use to estimate probable outcomes of games!), there aren't very many spots where we disagree with Vegas. Here are the most obvious:

In college football, we like Maryland over Wisconsin as an eleven point underdog, since we have them a tier higher to begin with!

We like Georgia Tech to beat Pitt despite their three-point underdog line, as we have them three full tiers higher than the Panthers!

We severely question the idea that Oregon St is a two-TD underdog to Stanford. We have them a tier higher, and since it's on the Farm, we figure it a pretty even game.

Looking at the West Virginia at Oklahoma St game, we see even lines from most Vegas houses, but we see it as a probable Mountaineer victory.

Old Dominion should be able to handle Western Kentucky, despite the Hilltoppers' home field advantage...and we don't see why Arizona is only a 2 1/2 point fave over Washington St. Sure, the Cougs will put up fifty - but they'll allow seventy!

In the NFL, we're always afraid to predict the unpredictable, but the two games where our tiers disagree with the oddsmakers are in the Meadowlands, where unlike Vegas we foresee Buffalo beating the Jets, and in New Orleans. Sure, the Saints are good at home...but the Packers are good everywhere. They're rated as a "pick'em" game, but we're pretty confident in Green Bay defeating New Orleans, even in the Superdome.

Finally, in the CFL, we're most interested in the Hamilton at Toronto matchup, and leaning towards the road team to win the first of the three-game round-robin tournament for the Eastern Conference title. 

NFL WEEK 5 Tiers adjusted

So, unlike the college weekend from bedlam, the NFL fell true to form (within reason!). Using the Vegas odds as our guide for predictions (never for gambling purposes, please!), only two games were technically upsets, and you could've easily made a case for Buffalo (17-14 last-minute victors over Detroit) and the revved-for-blood Patriots (who obliterated the undefeated Cardinals by four TDs in front of a Roman Coliseum crowd!) as favorites!

So, the changes in quartiles after Week 5: Dallas and the Colts move up to the Top Quartile, while Detroit and the Ravens drop in parallel; Buffalo and New England move from the Third to the Second Quartiles, knocking Atlanta and the Chiefs down a peg; and finally Cleveland moves off the Bottom up to the Third, with the Vikings resuming their rightful place in the lower eight.

HERE ARE YOUR WEEK FIVE NFL QUARTILES...

Top Quartile
Arizona, Cincinnati, Dallas, Denver, Indianapolis, Philadelphia, San Diego and Seattle.

Second Quartile
Baltimore, Buffalo, Carolina, Detroit, Green Bay, Houston, New England and San Francisco.

Third Quartile
Atlanta, Chicago, Cleveland, Kansas City, Miami, New Orleans, New York Giants and Pittsburgh.

Bottom Quartile
Jacksonville,Minnesota, New York Jets, Oakland, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Tennessee and Washington.

(As always - we remind you that listings are alphabetical, not a ranking; it's far too early and pointless to RANK teams at this stage.)