...Marcus Mariota of the Oregon Ducks won the Heisman Trophy tonight as the outstanding ball-handling college football player from a really good team in the country. (Don't deny it. That's what it's been.) Mostly, it's been quarterbacks over the years, especially the last decade-plus, when except for 'Bama's Mark Ingram, every winner in years starting with a "2" has been a quarterback.
The top players at each position were singled out over the past week at the various award shindigs, with these consensuses (consensi?) reached:
Top quarterback: Marcus Mariota, Oregon. Lots of great QBs out there - why, Ohio St has a slough of them! - but Mariota absolutely deserves every accolade he gets.
Top running back: Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin. Great from start to finish, but it was his 408 in three quarter against the vaunted "Blackshirts" that was his Mona Lisa.
Top receiver: Amari Cooper, Alabama. In a year of great receivers - and great FRESHMAN receivers in particular! - Cooper lived up to his hype week after week, and deserved his moment in the Heisman spotlight today.
Top tight end: Nick O'Leary, Florida St. A great TE is ideally both a great blocker AND has great receiving skills. O'Leary does.
Top center: Reese Dismukes, Auburn. We'll be honest: we have no idea who the best offensive linemen are. But we know which teams have the best lines, and Auburn and Iowa certainly are on that short list.
Top interior lineman: Brandon Scherff, Iowa.
Top defensive player: Scooby Wright, Arizona. A spectacular player. Magnetized to the ball, as he always seems to be around it. But it wasn't one of those years when there was a serious defensive threat to the MVP campaigns of Mariota and others, as there is on the NFL side.
Top defensive end: Nate Orchard, Utah.
Top linebacker: Eric Kendricks, UCLA.
Top defensive back: Gerod Hollimon, Louisville.
Top placekicker: Brad Craddock, Maryland. This was our biggest surprise - Robert Agouyo at Florida St was the defending "best" and certainly didn't do anything to lose the title.
Top punter: Tom Hackett, Utah. As an Aussie football player, Hackett's skills there serve him extremely well punting - not kicking for height but to place the ball where he wants to place it.
Top scholar/athlete: David Helton, Duke.
Top coach: Gary Patterson, TCU. As always, a crowded field: hard not to include both Mississippi coaches, Jerry Kill at Minnesota, David Cutcliffe at Duke, Paul Johnson at GT, Urban Meyer at Ohio St... But Patterson may have been the only one who transformed his own style to fit the circumstance, to great success.
Do you agree? Comment and let us know!
Showing posts with label Iowa. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iowa. Show all posts
Saturday, December 13, 2014
Sunday, November 30, 2014
An interesting decision by Nebraska...UPDATED
The University of Nebraska has announced that they're going to do it again.
A decade ago, they fired Frank Solich for the heinous crime of not being Tom Osbourne.
Solich won nine games a year, but because it was NEBRASKA! and they weren't winning national championships, UN figured they could do better.
They were wrong.
Suffering through a pair of coaches where .500 was an accomplishment, they finally got to Bo Pellini, a Nebraska man through and through, who went 67-27 over the seven years of his tenure as head man.
Today, he is no longer Nebraska's head man.
Saying they needed to move in a new direction, AD Shawn Eichorst relieved Pellini of his duties this morning, to the universal Twitter dismay of his players as well as his "alter ego", @FauxPellini (it's a fascinating statement about media that FauxPellini has more followers than the real Bo does!):
A decade ago, they fired Frank Solich for the heinous crime of not being Tom Osbourne.
Solich won nine games a year, but because it was NEBRASKA! and they weren't winning national championships, UN figured they could do better.
They were wrong.
Suffering through a pair of coaches where .500 was an accomplishment, they finally got to Bo Pellini, a Nebraska man through and through, who went 67-27 over the seven years of his tenure as head man.
Today, he is no longer Nebraska's head man.
Saying they needed to move in a new direction, AD Shawn Eichorst relieved Pellini of his duties this morning, to the universal Twitter dismay of his players as well as his "alter ego", @FauxPellini (it's a fascinating statement about media that FauxPellini has more followers than the real Bo does!):
Saturday, November 29, 2014
What is a rivalry?
A rivalry is NOT someone you compete against every season.
It is NOT just proximity.
It is NOT hatred, enmity, or animosity.
It is NOT sharing a conference, a city, or a state.
What a rivalry IS...is a pair of teams who can literally "throw out the records" whenever they play.
Consider the games today: Ohio St v Michigan, which was 17-22 points in the Buckeyes' favored column...way too much for a rivalry game. Currently 28-21 OSU, back and forth all game long....Kentucky v Louisville, in which UL was favored by 9-14, but which was at 28-26 in the fourth last check....Georgia Tech v Georgia, where underdog GT leads 21-17 with under three to go...and apparently the two teams brought into the Pac-12 together, Utah v Colorado, where the Utes should have won rather easily but the Buffaloes lead by two in the third quarter. Watching the Civil War tonight (Oregon v Oregon St) or the most fascinating intersectional rivalry in football, Notre Dame v USC, or either of the SEC matchups: Mississippi St/Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl (games w names usually are trying to be rivalries!) and the Iron Bowl which cannot top last year's everevereverever, Auburn v Alabama.
There are certainly other examples: Arizona/Arizona St (42-35 yesterday), Stanford/Cal, UCLA/USC, Harvard/Yale, Florida St/Miami-Fl, and you can probably name many of your own. Sometimes they arise from personality meshes: in the NFL, New England v Indianapolis were big rivals because they were both top of the division teams, but more because they had Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, the two great quarterbacks of their generation.
And sometimes, rivalries are manufactured - rarely successfully, but once in a while... For example, Nebraska entering the Big Ten, they're playing new teams up and down their schedule, and so there are several teams who might serve as a rival for them. But, watching the wild game against Iowa yesterday (which went to overtime before UN won 37-34), they may have found a rival after all!
Sometimes, rivalries can die, too: it used to be that Boise St v Idaho was one of the great unsung rivalries in the nation, through there D2 days, then the Big Sky days, then they move up into the Big West together in the FBS, and finally into the WAC....but as the Broncos continued to improve, winning conference championships left and right, the Vandals sputtered to losing seasons, fell out of conferences altogether for a year before scrambling back into the low-level Sun Belt and a 1-10 season again this year. When Boise won its tenth or twelfth straight over U of I, it became clear that the critical element of "any given day" was long gone. And therefore, so was the rivalry. There were still sports where the two teams are rivals, but not in football.
It is NOT just proximity.
It is NOT hatred, enmity, or animosity.
It is NOT sharing a conference, a city, or a state.
What a rivalry IS...is a pair of teams who can literally "throw out the records" whenever they play.
Consider the games today: Ohio St v Michigan, which was 17-22 points in the Buckeyes' favored column...way too much for a rivalry game. Currently 28-21 OSU, back and forth all game long....Kentucky v Louisville, in which UL was favored by 9-14, but which was at 28-26 in the fourth last check....Georgia Tech v Georgia, where underdog GT leads 21-17 with under three to go...and apparently the two teams brought into the Pac-12 together, Utah v Colorado, where the Utes should have won rather easily but the Buffaloes lead by two in the third quarter. Watching the Civil War tonight (Oregon v Oregon St) or the most fascinating intersectional rivalry in football, Notre Dame v USC, or either of the SEC matchups: Mississippi St/Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl (games w names usually are trying to be rivalries!) and the Iron Bowl which cannot top last year's everevereverever, Auburn v Alabama.
There are certainly other examples: Arizona/Arizona St (42-35 yesterday), Stanford/Cal, UCLA/USC, Harvard/Yale, Florida St/Miami-Fl, and you can probably name many of your own. Sometimes they arise from personality meshes: in the NFL, New England v Indianapolis were big rivals because they were both top of the division teams, but more because they had Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, the two great quarterbacks of their generation.
And sometimes, rivalries are manufactured - rarely successfully, but once in a while... For example, Nebraska entering the Big Ten, they're playing new teams up and down their schedule, and so there are several teams who might serve as a rival for them. But, watching the wild game against Iowa yesterday (which went to overtime before UN won 37-34), they may have found a rival after all!
Sometimes, rivalries can die, too: it used to be that Boise St v Idaho was one of the great unsung rivalries in the nation, through there D2 days, then the Big Sky days, then they move up into the Big West together in the FBS, and finally into the WAC....but as the Broncos continued to improve, winning conference championships left and right, the Vandals sputtered to losing seasons, fell out of conferences altogether for a year before scrambling back into the low-level Sun Belt and a 1-10 season again this year. When Boise won its tenth or twelfth straight over U of I, it became clear that the critical element of "any given day" was long gone. And therefore, so was the rivalry. There were still sports where the two teams are rivals, but not in football.
Friday, November 28, 2014
If Nebraska wins this game...
...well, they don't deserve to. After kicking the ball up your own lineman's butt on a fumbled punt, to failing to understand that you can advance a blocked field goal... Iowa led this game 24-7, and Nebraska looked simply inept. Since the middle of the third quarter, though, they've come all the way back to lead, 28-24, mostly thanks to Ameer Abdullah, as usual for Nebraska.
UPDATE: When we get access to video of the last play of regulation (they're going into OT at 31 after an amazingly entertaining last few minutes of the fourth quarter!), we'll post it. Iowa tried a version of the old Boise State "Hook-and-Ladder" that ended with a left tackle having a legit shot at running it in for the game-winner!
...and the Cornhuskers win, 37-34. Sigh.
UPDATE: When we get access to video of the last play of regulation (they're going into OT at 31 after an amazingly entertaining last few minutes of the fourth quarter!), we'll post it. Iowa tried a version of the old Boise State "Hook-and-Ladder" that ended with a left tackle having a legit shot at running it in for the game-winner!
...and the Cornhuskers win, 37-34. Sigh.
Tuesday, November 25, 2014
College predictions for Week 13!
Like we whined about with the pro schedule (our "whine" which was really a praise, of course!), we've been able to refine our tiers to the point where our tier-based predictions barely differ from the casino lines or from the Sagarin point spreads. We'll review some of the major contests coming up this Thanksgiving weekend, along with the games where we actually have some differing forecasts to consider...
Games of the highest interest:
Thursday - TCU @ Texas - The Horned Frogs are favored by anywhere from 6 1/2 to 9 points, but with the surging Longhorns looking for a pelt to prove they're on the road back, our instincts are telling us TCU's in trouble.
Friday - Arkansas @ Missouri - Another case of a surging lower team looking for a pelt, but in this case the Tier E Razorbacks are ready to make a full coat if they can prevent Mizzou from winning the East!
Arizona St @ Arizona - The Territorial Cup hasn't looked this good in the 21st century! Both 9-2, both Tier C, #17 and #18 on our ranking list - and the Pac-12 South title in reach for both. Wildcats get the three point ad for being at home from us.
Stanford @ UCLA - ...but they'll have to hope the Bruins lose if they want to play Oregon next week. And UCLA's firing on too many cylinders to let that happen.
Virginia @ Virginia Tech - Both 5-6, both need the win to go to a bowl. Question: if VaTech lost, would they really consider letting Frank Beamer go?
Saturday - South Carolina @ Clemson - Always fun! Clemson by 4.5 up to 6, depending on which of us you listen to. The state championship is on the line...
Kentucky @ Louisville - And here too, where the Cardinals are favored by 8 up to 13.5, depending on who you get your info from. We're the low end, as usual - we've had a soft spot for the Wildcats all year, but if they continue their downward trend, it may be much worse than that.
Michigan @ Ohio St - Probably Brady Hoke's last game. And if OSU comes up with a reason to run it up - to impress the committee, perhaps? - this could be uglier than the 17-22 point spreads we have in place.
Purdue @ Indiana - We can't even say it's for the state championship...Notre Dame won that. Hoosiers by 1.5 to 3.
Notre Dame @ USC - Glad they've found a way to keep this one on the schedule. Trojans by 3-7, although if Golson plays well, we see ND having a puncher's chance.
Florida @ Florida St - If you bet on this game, you're crazy. Sure, the spread is consistent: 5-11 points (we have it at 11), but if FSU wants to keep it close...if Florida decides to "win one for the Champer"....or lay down and die...this could be a rout either way, or a tie game at the death...
Baylor @ Texas Tech - Nothing to see here: Assuming the Bears show up (and they will), this game's job is to certify their credentials to pass TCU...who put up 82 on Tech. Hmm... The spread is 16-25, but if Baylor gets rolling, it might as well be 1625...
Kansas @ Kansas St - See previous comments.
Auburn @ Alabama - Why bother? The Iron Bowl can't POSSIBLY top last year's game... 'Bama by 5-10 points.
Oregon @ Oregon St - If you don't keep at least half an eye on this game, you might be surprised come Sunday morning! Sure, the Ducks are favored over the Beavers (by the way, the Civil War trophy is a combination of the two animals - hence, a platypus!) by 13-22 points, but there's a reason we're at the low end of that spread. OSU/Oregon has ALWAYS had the potential to ruin someone's season!
Games of a betting interest (but DON'T BET ON THEM!):
Friday - Northern Illinois @ Western Michigan - Hard to believe the Broncos are favored over the Huskies, but they are! We say by 1 point; Vegas says 7. (Sagarin, by the way, splits the difference: 3 1/2.)
Buffalo @ U Mass - The official line is Buffalo by 2; we call it EVEN. (Sagarin encourages us by picking UM by 2!)
Wyoming @ New Mexico - Coming off the shellacking Boise gave them, the Cowboys are 4 1/2 point underdogs in Vegas; we have them as one point faves! (Sagarin rates the game even.)
Games that are BOTH interesting on and off the field:
Thursday - LSU @ Texas A&M - We're picking the Aggies by 1; Vegas picks the Tigers by 2.5! (Sagarin rates it even.) Two teams who could beat anyone, but don't...
Friday - Nebraska @ Iowa - The Big Ten keeps trying to contrive rivalries since Oklahoma no longer shares the schedule. But this one seems to us to be the most natural, geographically. We see the Huskers by 3; Vegas has Iowa by 1. (Sagarin agrees with us.)
Georgia Tech @ Georgia - The state championship of Georgia looks like a foregone conclusion for Vegas; they favor UGA by 13 (Sagarin says 16.5!). We think Tech will stay within 6. (We do have a soft spot for Georgia Tech, though...)
Minnesota @ Wisconsin - We have a soft spot for the Golden Gophers, too - and they've got a legit shot at the Big Ten West title, if they can go into Madison and steal a game the way they stole the game (and the ball!) from Nebraska last week! We have UW as only a five point favorite; Vegas thinks Melvin Gordon runs wild and wins by two TDs. We like you, Badgers, but we're rooting for UM this weekend!!
Mississippi St @ Ole Miss - Can't recall this ever being THE game of the weekend! If Ole Miss had held up their end of the bargain, this could have been the game of the season! The casinos think MSU should be two-point favorites; we think Ole Miss at home should be the favorite, though not by much (half-point?). In the SEC West, home field has been everything. Our hunch is that it will be here, too.
Games of the highest interest:
Thursday - TCU @ Texas - The Horned Frogs are favored by anywhere from 6 1/2 to 9 points, but with the surging Longhorns looking for a pelt to prove they're on the road back, our instincts are telling us TCU's in trouble.
Friday - Arkansas @ Missouri - Another case of a surging lower team looking for a pelt, but in this case the Tier E Razorbacks are ready to make a full coat if they can prevent Mizzou from winning the East!
Arizona St @ Arizona - The Territorial Cup hasn't looked this good in the 21st century! Both 9-2, both Tier C, #17 and #18 on our ranking list - and the Pac-12 South title in reach for both. Wildcats get the three point ad for being at home from us.
Stanford @ UCLA - ...but they'll have to hope the Bruins lose if they want to play Oregon next week. And UCLA's firing on too many cylinders to let that happen.
Virginia @ Virginia Tech - Both 5-6, both need the win to go to a bowl. Question: if VaTech lost, would they really consider letting Frank Beamer go?
Saturday - South Carolina @ Clemson - Always fun! Clemson by 4.5 up to 6, depending on which of us you listen to. The state championship is on the line...
Kentucky @ Louisville - And here too, where the Cardinals are favored by 8 up to 13.5, depending on who you get your info from. We're the low end, as usual - we've had a soft spot for the Wildcats all year, but if they continue their downward trend, it may be much worse than that.
Michigan @ Ohio St - Probably Brady Hoke's last game. And if OSU comes up with a reason to run it up - to impress the committee, perhaps? - this could be uglier than the 17-22 point spreads we have in place.
Purdue @ Indiana - We can't even say it's for the state championship...Notre Dame won that. Hoosiers by 1.5 to 3.
Notre Dame @ USC - Glad they've found a way to keep this one on the schedule. Trojans by 3-7, although if Golson plays well, we see ND having a puncher's chance.
Florida @ Florida St - If you bet on this game, you're crazy. Sure, the spread is consistent: 5-11 points (we have it at 11), but if FSU wants to keep it close...if Florida decides to "win one for the Champer"....or lay down and die...this could be a rout either way, or a tie game at the death...
Baylor @ Texas Tech - Nothing to see here: Assuming the Bears show up (and they will), this game's job is to certify their credentials to pass TCU...who put up 82 on Tech. Hmm... The spread is 16-25, but if Baylor gets rolling, it might as well be 1625...
Kansas @ Kansas St - See previous comments.
Auburn @ Alabama - Why bother? The Iron Bowl can't POSSIBLY top last year's game... 'Bama by 5-10 points.
Oregon @ Oregon St - If you don't keep at least half an eye on this game, you might be surprised come Sunday morning! Sure, the Ducks are favored over the Beavers (by the way, the Civil War trophy is a combination of the two animals - hence, a platypus!) by 13-22 points, but there's a reason we're at the low end of that spread. OSU/Oregon has ALWAYS had the potential to ruin someone's season!
Games of a betting interest (but DON'T BET ON THEM!):
Friday - Northern Illinois @ Western Michigan - Hard to believe the Broncos are favored over the Huskies, but they are! We say by 1 point; Vegas says 7. (Sagarin, by the way, splits the difference: 3 1/2.)
Buffalo @ U Mass - The official line is Buffalo by 2; we call it EVEN. (Sagarin encourages us by picking UM by 2!)
Wyoming @ New Mexico - Coming off the shellacking Boise gave them, the Cowboys are 4 1/2 point underdogs in Vegas; we have them as one point faves! (Sagarin rates the game even.)
Games that are BOTH interesting on and off the field:
Thursday - LSU @ Texas A&M - We're picking the Aggies by 1; Vegas picks the Tigers by 2.5! (Sagarin rates it even.) Two teams who could beat anyone, but don't...
Friday - Nebraska @ Iowa - The Big Ten keeps trying to contrive rivalries since Oklahoma no longer shares the schedule. But this one seems to us to be the most natural, geographically. We see the Huskers by 3; Vegas has Iowa by 1. (Sagarin agrees with us.)
Georgia Tech @ Georgia - The state championship of Georgia looks like a foregone conclusion for Vegas; they favor UGA by 13 (Sagarin says 16.5!). We think Tech will stay within 6. (We do have a soft spot for Georgia Tech, though...)
Minnesota @ Wisconsin - We have a soft spot for the Golden Gophers, too - and they've got a legit shot at the Big Ten West title, if they can go into Madison and steal a game the way they stole the game (and the ball!) from Nebraska last week! We have UW as only a five point favorite; Vegas thinks Melvin Gordon runs wild and wins by two TDs. We like you, Badgers, but we're rooting for UM this weekend!!
Mississippi St @ Ole Miss - Can't recall this ever being THE game of the weekend! If Ole Miss had held up their end of the bargain, this could have been the game of the season! The casinos think MSU should be two-point favorites; we think Ole Miss at home should be the favorite, though not by much (half-point?). In the SEC West, home field has been everything. Our hunch is that it will be here, too.
Thursday, November 20, 2014
We're in love with Holly Anderson...
Here's Holly's guide to the upcoming week watching college football, including the in-stadium pillow fight in South Dakota, the rivalry games on tap, and a woman riding an alligator!
Thursday, November 6, 2014
Week 10 is upon us!
Starting the week 2-0 with our erudite flip-a-coin predictions (Bowling Green's "upset" of Akron Tuesday and NIU covering easily against Ball St; wish I could claim Kent St losing as a pick, but it wasn't going out on a limb!) gives us confidence as we proceed into the weekend's games!
As a reminder, we do NOT provide betting spreads in reference to actually placing money as bets on games. We DO NOT recommend betting on any sports activities. The information here is meant to be informational, recreational, and for the sheer heck of it.
We only have one solid pick for the lead-up games: Memphis should be favored by LESS than a TD at Temple. We have them just one tier apart, but Vegas credits this as a ten-point gap (the seven points plus accounting for three more with the Owls as the home team). It should be a close game; we would call it even.
So, let's look at Saturday's games! For the record, our actual "betting choices" will be underlined. (Just because we comment on a game doesn't mean we think the spread is wrong...)
***One of the things we've learned in grouping teams is that while the spread between individual tiers is generally between 1-2 points per tier, there are occasions when the far ends (tiers A and U) will "spread out more"; that is, the bell curve will stretch out to increase the gap between, say, teams in tiers T and U. Certainly, by mathematics, Tulsa is only one tier above SMU, and playing at home means the Golden Hurricane should get 4-5 points. The spread is twelve, and we agree. SMU is not just bad: they're horrific. Considering the great job June Jones had done with the recently defunct program, it's amazing how far off the map they've fallen. But when a 1-7 Tulsa team is a 12-point favorite to you, Mustangs...well, we're sorry.
***It's interesting to look at the places where the line differs from our tiers, and wonder who's wrong. In the MAC, it appears we did very well; with Iowa @ Minnesota and Baylor @ Oklahoma, though, it's hard not to wonder. The Hawkeyes are favored by two on the road against a team from their own tier. And frankly, we don't have the guts to disagree - the Gophers haven't looked as good recently, and they've faded in previous years. But we do like Baylor to cover and even WIN at Oklahoma, who is not the national favorite they were made out to be in August. (So...call it a compromise?)
***Similarly down south, Georgia is a ten point favorite AT Kentucky, just one tier below them...but it's easy to picture the Dawgs wanting to beat someone down after the shellacking Florida gave them last week. Not a bad point spread, even if Kentucky never gets any love. And Duke also suffers from poor image, even as they hold the keys to another division championship - they're only a 3 1/2 point fave at Syracuse. We like Duke to win this by more than that.
***Poor Texas A&M - three TD underdogs at Auburn Saturday. What high hopes they had! Now, with their QB situation so unsettled, it's hard to see them being in this game at all.
***Troy gets a TD against fellow Bottom Sixer Georgia St? Interesting...As noted above, the regular rules don't apply at the ends. But Appalachian St as a favorite against UL-Monroe? No chance. Take Monroe to win. We have that as a three-tier gap the other way. And Army should be favored over U Conn, not the other way around, especially AT Army! Finally, in the lower ranks, we see Florida International beating Old Dominion, even on the road; they're 4 1/2 point dogs in Vegas' eyes.
***The faith in Michigan fascinates us. Northwestern may indeed be fading, but to trust the Wolverines on the road right now - or ANYWHERE right now - is an act of true faith.
***The six big games this weekend are pretty easy to spot: Kansas St @ TCU (we like the Frogs), Ohio St @ Michigan St (we like the home team, no matter which school would have hosted this one), Oregon @ Utah (9 1/2 points is a big line, but we're not going against it), Alabama @ LSU (we have a hard time giving the Tide a TD here...aw, shoot. Go ahead and take LSU and the six points.), Notre Dame @ Arizona St (a really interesting line - Sun Devils by 1 1/2. We're inclined to take the Irish instead. They know how to win big games.), and the aforementioned Baylor @ Oklahoma (Bears over Sooners). They should ALL be great - keep the clicker handy!
As a reminder, we do NOT provide betting spreads in reference to actually placing money as bets on games. We DO NOT recommend betting on any sports activities. The information here is meant to be informational, recreational, and for the sheer heck of it.
We only have one solid pick for the lead-up games: Memphis should be favored by LESS than a TD at Temple. We have them just one tier apart, but Vegas credits this as a ten-point gap (the seven points plus accounting for three more with the Owls as the home team). It should be a close game; we would call it even.
So, let's look at Saturday's games! For the record, our actual "betting choices" will be underlined. (Just because we comment on a game doesn't mean we think the spread is wrong...)
***One of the things we've learned in grouping teams is that while the spread between individual tiers is generally between 1-2 points per tier, there are occasions when the far ends (tiers A and U) will "spread out more"; that is, the bell curve will stretch out to increase the gap between, say, teams in tiers T and U. Certainly, by mathematics, Tulsa is only one tier above SMU, and playing at home means the Golden Hurricane should get 4-5 points. The spread is twelve, and we agree. SMU is not just bad: they're horrific. Considering the great job June Jones had done with the recently defunct program, it's amazing how far off the map they've fallen. But when a 1-7 Tulsa team is a 12-point favorite to you, Mustangs...well, we're sorry.
***It's interesting to look at the places where the line differs from our tiers, and wonder who's wrong. In the MAC, it appears we did very well; with Iowa @ Minnesota and Baylor @ Oklahoma, though, it's hard not to wonder. The Hawkeyes are favored by two on the road against a team from their own tier. And frankly, we don't have the guts to disagree - the Gophers haven't looked as good recently, and they've faded in previous years. But we do like Baylor to cover and even WIN at Oklahoma, who is not the national favorite they were made out to be in August. (So...call it a compromise?)
***Similarly down south, Georgia is a ten point favorite AT Kentucky, just one tier below them...but it's easy to picture the Dawgs wanting to beat someone down after the shellacking Florida gave them last week. Not a bad point spread, even if Kentucky never gets any love. And Duke also suffers from poor image, even as they hold the keys to another division championship - they're only a 3 1/2 point fave at Syracuse. We like Duke to win this by more than that.
***Poor Texas A&M - three TD underdogs at Auburn Saturday. What high hopes they had! Now, with their QB situation so unsettled, it's hard to see them being in this game at all.
***Troy gets a TD against fellow Bottom Sixer Georgia St? Interesting...As noted above, the regular rules don't apply at the ends. But Appalachian St as a favorite against UL-Monroe? No chance. Take Monroe to win. We have that as a three-tier gap the other way. And Army should be favored over U Conn, not the other way around, especially AT Army! Finally, in the lower ranks, we see Florida International beating Old Dominion, even on the road; they're 4 1/2 point dogs in Vegas' eyes.
***The faith in Michigan fascinates us. Northwestern may indeed be fading, but to trust the Wolverines on the road right now - or ANYWHERE right now - is an act of true faith.
***The six big games this weekend are pretty easy to spot: Kansas St @ TCU (we like the Frogs), Ohio St @ Michigan St (we like the home team, no matter which school would have hosted this one), Oregon @ Utah (9 1/2 points is a big line, but we're not going against it), Alabama @ LSU (we have a hard time giving the Tide a TD here...aw, shoot. Go ahead and take LSU and the six points.), Notre Dame @ Arizona St (a really interesting line - Sun Devils by 1 1/2. We're inclined to take the Irish instead. They know how to win big games.), and the aforementioned Baylor @ Oklahoma (Bears over Sooners). They should ALL be great - keep the clicker handy!
Tuesday, October 28, 2014
Looking forward to Week 9 in college football with our SCIENTIFIC tools!
There are some great games coming this weekend, the first one on Thursday night when Tier F Louisville hosts Tier A Florida St! By tiering, the best game of the weekend should be Auburn @ Ole Miss, where the polls have the Tigers above the Rebels, but we have Ole Miss in Tier A and Auburn a rung lower in B; hence, we're favoring Ole Miss (and, if we were actually making bets, "taking the points").
Other marquee games include TCU @ West Virginia (tiers A vs. C), Kentucky @ Missouri (tiers D vs. E; unlike the oddsmakers, we like the Wildcats), Arkansas @ Mississippi St (tiers H vs. A), Arizona @ UCLA (again, they're favoring the lower tiered team, so we'll take tier C Arizona and the points over the tier E Bruins), and Stanford @ Oregon.
Going strictly by tiers, and using the old saw about home field being about a three-point advantage, we've noticed that the point spread for this week's games generally matches up very well with our 20-tier system. As a general rule, the expected margin of victory will be somewhere between 1-2.5 points per tier, plus or minus the three points for the home field. The actual average is 1.75 points per tier, with the median at 1.5 points per tier. So, if two teams are four tiers apart on last week's listing, expect the higher team to be favored by 4-10 points, most likely 6-7, + the three points for home field.
Given those parameters, and strictly using our wisened separation tool better known as "guessing" where teams should fall, we took a look at the 54 FBS games scheduled this weekend for "outliers" to see if there were some easy predictions we could make based on this statistical creation:
Predictions based on our tier system and the Vegas odds...
*Iowa should be favored by more than 4 at home against Northwestern.
*Rutgers shouldn't be eleven point underdogs at home against Wisconsin (more like 2).
*Florida International shouldn't be 6 1/2 point dogs at home to Rice (also about 2).
*Why is Duke not favored over Pitt? Tier D over tier I? They should be giving points!
*North Carolina will be closer to the Hurricanes than seventeen points...
*Boston College shouldn't be getting points from Virginia Tech (or, at least not three)!
*Eastern Michigan shouldn't be more than about a touchdown underdog to Central Michigan (not 16 1/2 points, anyway!).
*Louisiana Tech should be a much bigger favorite over Tier R Western Kentucky - six points at home isn't sufficient.
*Virginia at Georgia Tech shouldn't be just the three point home field advantage...the Yellowjackets deserve at least a TD spread in their favor.
*Part of the continued over-valuing of the Cougars after Tayson Hill's injury: Middle Tennessee should NOT be the underdog at home again BYU.
*And Kentucky should be favored over Missouri - or at least, not down six!
*We see both UNLV and Ole Miss as higher tiered teams at home (against New Mexico and Auburn, respectively), and with the three-point home bump should be more than one and two point faves, in turn. More like five each.
*Oklahoma St will be a one TD underdog to Kansas St, not two.
*Arizona will flat out beat UCLA in Los Angeles, not lose by four.
*Fresno St may be favored at home, but Wyoming shouldn't be getting 10 1/2 points!
*See previous comment with Utah not getting five points against Arizona St!
*Finally, it's hard to estimate what the trip to the islands does to a team, but we think Utah St deserves more love than a three point spread when they play at Hawaii late Saturday night!
We'll see how those predictions go this weekend! Eighteen chances to be proven wrong! A prognosticator's dream!
Other marquee games include TCU @ West Virginia (tiers A vs. C), Kentucky @ Missouri (tiers D vs. E; unlike the oddsmakers, we like the Wildcats), Arkansas @ Mississippi St (tiers H vs. A), Arizona @ UCLA (again, they're favoring the lower tiered team, so we'll take tier C Arizona and the points over the tier E Bruins), and Stanford @ Oregon.
Going strictly by tiers, and using the old saw about home field being about a three-point advantage, we've noticed that the point spread for this week's games generally matches up very well with our 20-tier system. As a general rule, the expected margin of victory will be somewhere between 1-2.5 points per tier, plus or minus the three points for the home field. The actual average is 1.75 points per tier, with the median at 1.5 points per tier. So, if two teams are four tiers apart on last week's listing, expect the higher team to be favored by 4-10 points, most likely 6-7, + the three points for home field.
Given those parameters, and strictly using our wisened separation tool better known as "guessing" where teams should fall, we took a look at the 54 FBS games scheduled this weekend for "outliers" to see if there were some easy predictions we could make based on this statistical creation:
Predictions based on our tier system and the Vegas odds...
*Iowa should be favored by more than 4 at home against Northwestern.
*Rutgers shouldn't be eleven point underdogs at home against Wisconsin (more like 2).
*Florida International shouldn't be 6 1/2 point dogs at home to Rice (also about 2).
*Why is Duke not favored over Pitt? Tier D over tier I? They should be giving points!
*North Carolina will be closer to the Hurricanes than seventeen points...
*Boston College shouldn't be getting points from Virginia Tech (or, at least not three)!
*Eastern Michigan shouldn't be more than about a touchdown underdog to Central Michigan (not 16 1/2 points, anyway!).
*Louisiana Tech should be a much bigger favorite over Tier R Western Kentucky - six points at home isn't sufficient.
*Virginia at Georgia Tech shouldn't be just the three point home field advantage...the Yellowjackets deserve at least a TD spread in their favor.
*Part of the continued over-valuing of the Cougars after Tayson Hill's injury: Middle Tennessee should NOT be the underdog at home again BYU.
*And Kentucky should be favored over Missouri - or at least, not down six!
*We see both UNLV and Ole Miss as higher tiered teams at home (against New Mexico and Auburn, respectively), and with the three-point home bump should be more than one and two point faves, in turn. More like five each.
*Oklahoma St will be a one TD underdog to Kansas St, not two.
*Arizona will flat out beat UCLA in Los Angeles, not lose by four.
*Fresno St may be favored at home, but Wyoming shouldn't be getting 10 1/2 points!
*See previous comment with Utah not getting five points against Arizona St!
*Finally, it's hard to estimate what the trip to the islands does to a team, but we think Utah St deserves more love than a three point spread when they play at Hawaii late Saturday night!
We'll see how those predictions go this weekend! Eighteen chances to be proven wrong! A prognosticator's dream!
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