Optimism is such a wonderful thing!

ESPN asked each of its bloggers assigned to each of the 32 teams in the NFL to predict their team's record, independently of the other 31 bloggers. 

They did so.

The records, as they sit, seem pretty reasonable...until you add them up.

Somehow, there will be fifty more wins than losses this year.

That's right: the NFL as a whole will go 281-231, apparently playing FCS schools like the Power Five do to puff up their records! Won't that be interesting? 

So, here's the record synopsis. If you want to be closer to reality, subtract one win (technically, 25/32 of a win, just under .8) from each team and add it to the loss column:

NFC East: Dallas 11-5; Philly 10-6; NYG 8-8; Washington 6-10.
NFC North: GB 11-5; Minnesota 9-7; Detroit 8-8; Chicago 7-9.
NFC South: Carolina 10-6; NO Saints 10-6; Atlanta 8-8; Tampa 8-8. (This is my favorite! I think you can subtract all 25 wins from these teams and be more accurate. Remember, the Panthers won the division at 7-9 last year!)
NFC West: Seattle 11-5; Arizona 9-7; St. Louis 8-8; SF 7-9. (On the other hand, this may be about right!)
AFC East:New England 11-5 (but then again,that may be inflated!); Miami 9-7; Buffalo 9-7; NY Jets 8-8. (Hard to picture THIS division all at .500 or above, either!)
AFC North: Cincinnati 10-6; Pittsburgh 9-7; Baltimore 9-7; Cleveland 4-12.
AFC South: Indy 13-3; Houston 10-6; Jax 7-9; Tennessee 5-11. 
AFC West: Denver 13-3; KC 9-7; SD 8-8; Oakland 6-10. Bring Denver and Indy down a game or two, and those are all about right!)

Forget Saban/Meyer - here's the ultimate contrast in bowl coaches!

As we follow the "Belk Bowl" (whatever the blazes a "belk" is), between Georgia and Louisville, we here at Following Football can't help but mention the HUGE difference in the head coaches involved. Georgia's Mark Richt is perhaps the most famous Christian coach in the nation, even appearing as the inspiration in the famous Christian film Facing The Giants. Meanwhile, Bobby Petrino was famously relieved of his duties at Arkansas after crashing his motorcycle with his illegally hired mistress on the back; this after arriving in Arkansas when he literally deserted the Atlanta Falcons midseason when the opportunity to jump ship arose. 

Forgive us, UL friends, if we root for the Bulldogs tonight....

Looking through the NFL final standings,...

...there are, as always, some curious records within the records. Here are a few of them...

8-0 at home) Both Green Bay and Denver were not only perfect at home, but 11-0 overall on grass this season (and thus 1-4 on turf!).

8-0 on the road) Strangely, Dallas went just 4-4 in their luxurious digs, but undefeated on the road.

0-8 on the road) Two young teams, Oakland and Jacksonville, managed three wins at home but went winless on the road. Not that weird...

0-8 at home) But the only two wins Tampa Bay got this year were away from home, at Washington (okay) and at Pittsburgh (arguably the biggest upset of the year). Tampa was also the only team to go 0-6 in their division (and in the worst division in football, no less).

The definition of average) Not only did the Miami Dolphins go 8-8, but they were 4-4 at home, 4-4 on the road, 3-3 in the division and 6-6 in the conference (and thus 2-2 against the NFC). Their point differential was just fifteen points to the good, too; San Diego, on the other hand, wound up scoring 348 points and allowing 348 points as well, though they went 9-7.

6-0 in the division) Indianapolis and Denver both went lossless within their division, and won the division with ease. (Had Atlanta held home field today, they would've won the division by going 6-0 in the division and 1-9 everywhere else!)

Overtime champs) Oddly, Minnesota was the only club to win two overtime games this season, going 2-0 (defeating the Jets and Buccaneers).

Carolina "wins" the NFC South) despite scoring 35 fewer points than their opponents, and despite losing every game between Columbus Day (Oct 12) and Pearl Harbor Day (Dec 7). In fact, no team in the division had a winning record at home OR on the road this year.

Looking at the way divisions played each other, the NFC East went 12-4 over the AFC South (and Dallas and Philly both went 4-0); the AFC North managed to go 12-3-1 over the NFC South (with Cincinnati and Baltimore combining to go 7-0-1); and the NFC West went 12-4 against the NFC East (the Rams only went 1-3, though, beating Washington, while the other three teams went 11-1 against their eastern brethren).

Finally, Buffalo may regret its 1-3 record against the AFC West, while the New England Pats went 4-0 against the same teams. The two clubs went 8-4 in all their other games, so those interdivision matchups cost the Bills the division!

Hey! NFL stat geeks!

And here's a fun little article, also from Five-Thirty-Eight, on the NFL playoffs, the atrocity of the NFC South, the unlikelihood of Philadelphia not making the playoffs, the unlikelihood of Atlanta making the playoffs, the amazing powers of Odelle Beckham, Jr., and some cool graphs and charts! Enjoy!

The NFC's mathematics problem...

Take a look at the NFC rankings in particular this week, and their records...

week 14	Team	Div	OvRecord
A1	Green Bay Packers	N-N	9-3
A2	New England Patriots	A-E	10-3
A3	Denver Broncos	A-W	10-3
A4	Seattle Seahawks	N-W	9-4
B5	Indianapolis Colts	A-S	9-4
B6	Philadelphia Eagles	N-E	9-4
B7	Dallas Cowboys	N-E	9-4
B8	Arizona Cardinals	N-W	10-3
C09	Detroit Lions	N-N	9-4
C10	Baltimore Ravens	A-N	8-5
C11	Pittsburgh Steelers	A-N	8-5
C12	Cincinnati Bengals	A-N	8-4-1
D13	San Diego Chargers	A-W	8-5
D14	Miami Dolphins	A-E	7-6
D15	Houston Texans	A-S	7-6
D16	Kansas City Chiefs	A-W	7-6
E17	Buffalo Bills	A-E	7-6
E18	Cleveland Browns	A-N	7-6
E19	St. Louis Rams	N-W	6-7
E20	San Francisco 49ers	N-W	7-6
F21	Minnesota Vikings	N-N	6-7
F22	Atlanta Falcons	N-S	5-7
F23	Carolina Panthers	N-S	4-8-1
F24	New Orleans Saints	N-S	5-8
G25	Chicago Bears	N-N	5-8
G26	New York Giants	N-E	4-9
G27	Washington Redskins	N-E	3-10
G28	New York Jets	A-E	2-11
H29	Oakland Raiders	A-W	2-11
H30	Tampa Buccaneers	N-S	2-11
H31	Jacksonville Jaguars	A-S	2-11
H32	Tennessee Titans	A-S	2-11

As we see it, there are SIX teams in the NFC who are head and shoulders above the rest - six teams in slots #1-9 in the FF rankings (and basically everyone else's, too), six teams with at least nine wins already, and the next team in the conference doesn't show up until Tier E, #19! With six playoff spots and six good teams, this should be easy...

EXCEPT for the GOSH-DARNED SOUTH Division!

Take another look at where the teams in each division are (we'll just show you the NFC this time...), highlighting the six leaders and the NFC South:

week 14	Team	Div	OvRecord
A1	Green Bay Packers	N-N	9-3
A4	Seattle Seahawks	N-W	9-4
B6	Philadelphia Eagles	N-E	9-4
B7	Dallas Cowboys	N-E	9-4
B8	Arizona Cardinals	N-W	10-3
C09	Detroit Lions	N-N	9-4
E19	St. Louis Rams	N-W	6-7
E20	San Francisco 49ers	N-W	7-6
F21	Minnesota Vikings	N-N	6-7
F22	Atlanta Falcons	N-S	5-7
F23	Carolina Panthers	N-S	4-8-1
F24	New Orleans Saints	N-S	5-8
G25	Chicago Bears	N-N	5-8
G26	New York Giants	N-E	4-9
G27	Washington Redskins	N-E	3-10
H30	Tampa Buccaneers	N-S	2-11

So, there are TWO teams from each of THREE divisions (meaning there will be THREE non-division winners among the six), while the best of the NFC South teams comes in at #22, with #23, #24, and #30 close behind. In fact, if Atlanta loses to the Packers tonight (as expected - they're two TD underdogs), it will be mathematically impossible for ANY team in the division to have a winning record this year.

Therefore, we're already guaranteed that a nine-win team will stay home in the NFC (more likely a 10 or 11 win team), while the NFC South winner not only goes to the playoffs, but HOSTS a game! 

We are NOT the Big 12 - we will NOT change the rules in midstream. However, we would like to recommend a rule change starting next year...

"No team may participate in the playoffs if their record is under .500."

You can't say at .500, as much as you'd like to, because it's possible you won't have six teams out of sixteen over .500. (In fact, it's theoretically possible for the entire league to be 8-8, so under that version of the rule NO ONE goes to the playoffs. But that's not very likely.)

But under .500? Easy. "If a division champion is under .500, then its spot goes to the first wild card team; the second team moves up to the #5 slot, and a third wild card team is entered into the #6 slot."

"Furthermore, if the entire conference is putrid and there are not six teams in a particular conference with .500 records or above, then all empty slots in that conference will be filled with the next available teams from the opposite conference." (That's the way the CFL does it already! That's how British Columbia got into the playoffs instead of 8-10 Toronto!) "Hence, the #7 team in the opposing conference takes the #6 slot in the putrid conference, assuming one open slot."

And, just in case..."If somehow, there are NOT six teams with records of .500 or above available at all," (and it IS theoretically possible: what if there are five teams who go 14-2? There'll be a lot of losses to spread around in the league!), "then ALL empty slots are treated as BYES, and the opposing team gets a walkover into the next round." Wouldn't THAT be a fascinating turn of events! How serious are you about not allowing 7-9 teams into your postseason? 

("Alternatively, if you want to wuss out and take the money and run instead, then on a 3/4 vote of the league owners, the previous paragraph may be waived on a one-year basis IF there are not twelve eligible teams to fill the twelve available spots. Wusses.")

From Gregg Easterbrook and "TMQ"...

As always, we urge you to read Tuesday Morning Quarterback, aka "TMQ", on ESPN.com every (let me guess!) Tuesday morning. Here are his ten "stats of the week"...

Stats Of The Week No. 1: At Lambeau Field, Aaron Rodgers is on a streak of 33 touchdown passes to zero interceptions, including playoffs.

Stats Of The Week No. 2: Atlanta, which goes to Lambeau Field on the next "Monday Night Football," is an NFL-worst .278 -- 10-26 -- in Monday games.

Stats Of The Week No. 3: Niners possession results at home versus Seattle: Punt, punt, interception, punt, punt, punt, end of half, field goal, interception, end of game.

Stats Of The Week No. 4: After going 453 games without a punt block for a touchdown, Minnesota did it twice in the same half versus Carolina.

Stats Of The Week No. 5: Since the start of 2013, the Chiefs are 3-7 in their division, 15-4 versus all other teams, including playoffs.

Stats Of The Week No. 6: The 49ers are 1-3 in their division. In the three previous seasons, they were 13-5-1 including playoffs.

Stats Of The Week No. 7: The Raiders have not won on the road since Nov. 17, 2013.

Stats of the Week No. 8: Boise State is on a 91-4 run when playing on blue.

Stats Of The Week No. 9: Defensive end J.J. Watt has more touchdown receptions (three) than the entire Kansas City wide receiver corps (none).

Stats Of The Week No. 10: The 2-10 Buccaneers are alive for the first overall draft pick -- and also alive to win their division and host a playoff game.

Ah, the blessed NFC South....

As things stand right now, Atlanta and New Orleans "lead" the pathetic NFC South with four wins and seven losses. (All four of the Falcons' victories are against other teams from within the division. The division leaders are 0-7 against the other seven divisions.) Carolina sits one half game back of the lead, despite being on a five game losing streak. Tampa Bay, arguably the worst team in the league, is still just two games out at (gulp) 2-9.

How bad might it get? Let's consider...

Assume they each lose all ten of their remaining non-division games. (Not unreasonable: the only game we see as contradictory might be the Saints @ Chicago.) Then if Tampa wins its two division games, Carolina wins two of its three, and the Saints and Falcons thus lose at least those two each, the Carolina Panthers would win the NFC South with a record of 5-10-1. (Either Atlanta or NO would be 5-11, the other 4-10, and Tampa would be 4-10.) Travesty. Give the spot to an AFC North team, who all ALREADY have seven wins to their names.

Another thought: What if it's the Saints that win the division - say, at 7-9 - and they host the wild card team with the best record, which could very likely be Seattle... How ironic would it be if the tables turned and it was sub-.500 division winner New Orleans who upset heavily favored Seattle this time, instead of the other way 'round?!?

Our actual predictions, looking through the remaining five weeks of the season: New Orleans should reach seven, maybe eight wins; Carolina and Atlanta, probably five, and Tampa may or may not win again. Meanwhile, there are already two NFC teams with eight wins and who trail in their division, and there'll be a third in a few hours when either Seattle or San Francisco wins the Thanksgiving night game tonight. So five weeks in advance, we've already guaranteed ourselves an NFC team who's gonna be ticked watching the 7-9-ish Saints hosting a playoff game while they watch from home...

Bill Barnwell hits the nail on the head (as usual!)

In his week in review column for Grantland, Bill Barnwell addresses most of the interesting items of the NFL weekend, including the Beckham Jr. catch, of course, but also Mike Smith's terrible coaching in the fourth quarter that allowed Cleveland to come back against his Falcons, T.Y. Hilton's exceptional day (his wife gave birth in the morning before his great game for the Colts), and the "Rabona" onside kick from Miami's Caleb Sturgis - a thing of brilliance...

Bill Barnwell nails it, as usual

We briefly touched upon the football-like substance which we exported to London last weekend, and the horrors that it invoked - the game was so badly played and coached that even the British fans booed! Can't you imagine how a knowledgeable American audience would've reacted?

Anyway, Bill Barnwell of Grantland does an amazing job  (as he always does) of diving into the manure pile of a game that was Detroit 22, Atlanta 21. It was tempting, I'm sure, for the NFL to revoke their passports, but then Roger Goodell's long time dream of having a football team in London would die a painful death (because the Brits would never forgive us for this debacle - bad enough we keep sending them the Raiders and Jaguars!

We've alienated London fans forever...

..with the ending of that weird, wild, Detroit "victory" over the Atlanta Falcons this morning, won by a Matt Prater field goal after a trial run he missed that was erased by his own team's delay of game. So, NOT a penalty that Atlanta was allowed to refuse, and backing up five yards Prater made the second attempt. 

BEFORE that, we had the debacle of the Lions (for some insipid reason) running down the middle for virtually no gain when they had no timeouts, and then spiking the ball. We had the idiots on the Atlanta sideline calling timeouts when the Lions needed them after a running play, the Falcons players committing stupid penalties that gave the Lions necessary yardage, and just the complete collapse of the birds that led 21-0 at halftime, dominating the Lions and then going dormant in the second half. 

Add the Lion kicking woes this season and the terrible turf conditions in Wembley Stadium, and you had to wonder why the Lions were playing for a 40+ yard field goal to win in the first place... Just a ridiculous ending to an otherwise interesting game.

Detroit 22 - Atlanta 21 

NFL WEEK 5 Tiers adjusted

So, unlike the college weekend from bedlam, the NFL fell true to form (within reason!). Using the Vegas odds as our guide for predictions (never for gambling purposes, please!), only two games were technically upsets, and you could've easily made a case for Buffalo (17-14 last-minute victors over Detroit) and the revved-for-blood Patriots (who obliterated the undefeated Cardinals by four TDs in front of a Roman Coliseum crowd!) as favorites!

So, the changes in quartiles after Week 5: Dallas and the Colts move up to the Top Quartile, while Detroit and the Ravens drop in parallel; Buffalo and New England move from the Third to the Second Quartiles, knocking Atlanta and the Chiefs down a peg; and finally Cleveland moves off the Bottom up to the Third, with the Vikings resuming their rightful place in the lower eight.

HERE ARE YOUR WEEK FIVE NFL QUARTILES...

Top Quartile
Arizona, Cincinnati, Dallas, Denver, Indianapolis, Philadelphia, San Diego and Seattle.

Second Quartile
Baltimore, Buffalo, Carolina, Detroit, Green Bay, Houston, New England and San Francisco.

Third Quartile
Atlanta, Chicago, Cleveland, Kansas City, Miami, New Orleans, New York Giants and Pittsburgh.

Bottom Quartile
Jacksonville,Minnesota, New York Jets, Oakland, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Tennessee and Washington.

(As always - we remind you that listings are alphabetical, not a ranking; it's far too early and pointless to RANK teams at this stage.)