As the college football playoff committee puts out its rankings tonight, and Following Football has done the same over the last two days for all 285 pro and college teams we cover, it's a great time to look at which teams have had a surprisingly UP season, and which ones have been startlingly DOWN...
WHO'S UP? Well, what about the Cincinnati Bengals and the Carolina Panthers? Everyone who saw both of them at 7-0 starting November raise your hands. OK, we've identified the liars in the room...
WHO'S DOWN? It's not hard to find struggling teams in the NFL, but a couple we saw in the playoffs last year are the Baltimore Ravens and the Detroit Lions. Tough schedule, sure - close games, yes - but somewhere in there, you've got to stand up and win a couple of those games.
WHO'S UP? Three "usual suspects": the Green Bay Packers, the Denver Broncos, and the New England Patriots. Remarkable to watch Peyton be Peyton again, but Rodgers and Brady have left no doubt that they're still at the top of their games. And all three have defenses to get them the ball.
WHO'S DOWN? Again, who do you expect? The Tennessee Titans, of course, who just fired another coach...the Cleveland Browns, who continue to put up with Manziel for some odd reason...the Chicago Bears weren't expected to do much, and still haven't lived up to expectations... and even with their shiny new QB, the Tampa Bay Bucs are barely better than they were at this point last year.
WHO'S UP? There are signs of life in Oakland...in Minnesota...in Atlanta...in St. Louis. Parity is always the stated goal of the NFL admin, but what you really want is the feeling as a fan base that any year could be THE YEAR!
WHO'S DOWN? When you've got a fan base like the Sasktachewan RoughRiders do, arguably the best in the Canadian Football League, and you were expecting to be contending for the Grey Cup, when you were right on the heels of the eventual champion Calgary Stampeders all season...and you go a miserable two and fifteen heading into the final week of the season...yeah, the green is blue this year. The Riders were actually eliminated from playoff contention six weeks ago...in a league where 2/3 of the teams make the playoffs. THAT'S impressive in its badness.
WHO'S UP? When you went 2-16 last year in your first campaign as an expansion franchise, you can be forgiven if a successful second season in your mind was, say, six wins. Looking at the two expansion clubs in the AFL (Gold Coast and GWS), they went through about that - two bad years, then two mediocre years. But instead, the Ottawa RedBlacks are one win away from an Eastern Division championship in their second year - already guaranteed a winning record at 11-6, all they need to do is win OR not lose by more than five points at home on Saturday to the Hamilton Ti-Cats...not the first choice of opponents in this situation, especially since it's the Ti-Cats who will earn the title if you fail. But just to have this opportunity in your sophomore campaign! CONGRATULATIONS, OTTAWA!
WHO'S DOWN? My attention span for Canadian football once the American season hit full steam in late September. It was frustrating, because I knew I didn't have the time or energy to stay abreast of every single thing in the NFL, NCAA, and the CFL - and as the footy season was reaching its climax down under, it was the mid-to-late weeks of the Canadian season that got the short shrift. To our readers, I apologize. But of course, all we can do is our best, and we'll continue to do that for you.
WHO'S UP? At the moment, we have our top four "theoretically playoff bound" FBS teams (in the humble opinion of Following Football ACNC!) - LSU, Clemson, Alabama, Notre Dame. To most observers we've heard, the first two names are almost indisputable at the moment (things change quickly in college football, though!), and the other two could be replaced by any of close to a dozen teams: TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Michigan St, Ohio St, Florida, Stanford, Iowa, Utah, even Memphis or Toledo. (Probably not Idaho, though.)
WHO'S DOWN? Which teams thought they'd be in the mix at this point and aren't? There are some obvious candidates: Georgia, Auburn, Oregon, USC, Tennessee, There are some others whose fan bases might have thought it feasible - but that's another story.
WHO'S UP? There are some remarkable positive stories this fall of teams who weren't expected to fare as successfully as they have, as there are every year. That doesn't make them any less worth applauding: Florida (new head coach Jim McElwain has them sitting at #7 on the Following Football ranking at the moment; finished the 2014 season at #34), Michigan (Harbaugh took a team who finished at #67 last year, bottom half of the FBS, and has them at #14 right now), Houston (up from #69 last year to an undefeated 8-0 at #21 and looking at a possible New Year's bowl); and Temple (similar story arc, moving from #79 to current #22, having just taken Notre Dame to the brink). There are lower eschelon stories as well: Southern Miss moved from tier S up to its current tier L; Tulsa has bounded from tier T up to tier N this year. Vanderbilt from tier R up to its present place in tier I; and Northwestern, who beat Stanford to start the year, Duke for its only legitimate defeat (ahem, Miami), and moved from last year's tier M and #78 all the way into tier G and position #35.
WHO'S DOWN? And then... there are the sob stories. The ones you tsk tsk about behind their backs. The ones who (in your opinion) deserve a bad year every once in a while... How about Texas? Charlie Strong's first year looked promising! But with a blowout, embarrassing loss to Notre Dame (well, ok), embarrassing near-misses against California and OK State (hmmm...), a bad loss at TCU (eww...), a surprise win in the Shootout (hey! Maybe...) followed by definitive losses to two foes they used to pick their teeth with the last two weeks: K-State and Iowa State. Read that again. Iowa State! The Texas offense was not only shut out, they never got past the ISU 40 yard line.
But that pales next to Nebraska, who fired a coach who gave them nine wins a season every year - AGAIN. A decade ago, they fired Frank Solich because he wasn't Tom Osborne. The man they hired to replace him...was no Frank Solich. Disaster - they didn't even make .500! In desperation, they brought in NU guy Bo Pelini - colorful, successful, nine wins a season, just like Solich (who went on to be one of the most successful coaches in MAC history). Seven years of Pelini NOT being Tom Osborne was enough for the faithful, and they brought in Mike Riley, a very nice man with a mediocre program at Oregon State, who has produced a mediocre program at Nebraska, finding exciting ways to lose close games to good teams and sometimes to bad teams like Purdue last weekend.
South Carolina was doing badly enough that the Head Ball Coach simply walked away into retirement. Central Florida saw the same story with Head Resume Inflator in the lead walking role. Whether the story ends the same way at Virginia Tech in Frank Beamer's last year remains to be seen. It looks like Minnesota's going to be hanged if they allow Jerry Kill's epilepsy-induced retirement to end the same way, thankfully.
WHAT'S NEXT? Who knows? And isn't that the beauty of football? It's the best reality show there is - all the drama, the competition, the tension of the staged TV events, except it's actual reality! There IS no script! Maybe Texas turns it around! Maybe Florida nosedives the rest of the way! Maybe Jim Harbaugh takes Michigan to four miraculous victories against Ohio State, Iowa in the B1G title game, the semifinal and the NC game, and the Blue rule the nation! Or...just as unlikely...maybe they lose every game from here on out, including a 59-0 shutout by the Buckeyes. That's the point - we can't know ahead of time! So sit back, turn on the TV, go to a game if you're close enough, and enjoy the ride!
Showing posts with label Lions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Lions. Show all posts
Tuesday, November 3, 2015
Tuesday, October 27, 2015
UPS and DOWNS for the Last Week of October!
Yes, we've been negligent in our UPS and DOWNS this month, so let's see if we can make it up to you today with a BIG long list!
UP to the FIVE UNDEFEATED teams still left in the NFL at Hallow'een! I've heard different dates, but it's been many, many years since we've had five 6-0 teams - Green Bay, Cincinnati, Denver, Carolina, and New England. They're certainly deserving of their hallowed spots - New England and Green Bay were the consensus picks for Super Bowl combatants; Cincinnati's been tested repeatedly and looks better than any previous year in the Dalton era; and Cam Newton and that Carolina defense are doing just as well as Peyton Manning and that amazing Bronco defense! (Rephrase that: Cam's doing more that the legend, but the Denver D has been more impressive by far than any in the league.)
DOWN to the MOST DISAPPOINTING teams in the NFL this season... Baltimore fell to 1-6 last night, although a valiant effort to come back against a strong Arizona club fell short in the end zone. They've been within a score in every one of their games, and the Harbaugh coaching line will keep them competitive...but as for their own playoff hopes? Six losses is probably already as many as they can afford, and they're not going 9-0 the rest of the way. Seattle? Too early to say. Yes, they've lost more than expected, but they looked good against the Niners Thursday night. Can you call Chicago, Tampa, Tennessee, or Jacksonville "disappointing" if you weren't expecting anything from them? I think not. Certainly Detroit belongs on that list...
UP to the GREATEST NAME in modern football! Yesterday, in an effort to rearrange deck chairs on the Titanic, the Lions reneged on their promise not to change any coaches and changed coaches, firing the OC and replacing him with....wait for it...Jim Bob Cooter, a man who not only has the greatest name in the the business, but also a creative criminal record to boot: while he was at Tennessee several years ago, he was convicted of "aggravated assault" because he went into a woman's home, stripped down to his underwear, and climbed in bed with her. Had it been his wife, no worries. However, she didn't know him....OOPS! A promising move for Detroit.
DOWN to the MIAMI HURRICANE fans and alumni... who deserve whatever terrible coach they receive now that they've singlehandedly forced the ouster of Al Golden as their football coach. Certainly, the AD had no choice after the 58-0 debacle against Clemson, and even if you want to admit that the players seemed to play without interest, the firing only became necessary because the overzealous "fans" (remember, the word is short for "fanatic") demanded it. NOW...put yourself in the place of a prospective coach. Do you want to coach at Miami, having seen what they did to your predecessor? Miami was still 4-3, you know - not a bad season, although admittedly not national championship contenders. The expectations for a mid-level ACC program - and make no mistake: with the facility issues they have there, it IS a mid-level program! - are way overboard. If the poor fellow who takes the job ends his first four seasons has the same 32-25 record Golden did, I'll be impressed. And surprised.
UP to the DEPENDABILITY of the BOTTOM FEEDERS! As a phootball prophet of the lowest order, I depend on the reliability of the teams I work with in order to phorcast the outcomes of the games they play. We've seen an amazing array of turnabouts this year - for example, we expected Michigan to beat Michigan St, and they did...for the first 59:55 of the game, pre-punt. We thought Florida St would win over my son's beloved Ramblin' Wreck of Georgia Tech...until a field goal block returned for a game winner changed that outcome. We've seen ridiculous outcomes across the board - games I was absolutely SURE about came out the other way. AND YET, the one constant that keeps us above .500, above the line of sheer guess work? Well, it's the bottom feeder teams - the Savannah States, the Davidsons, the Missouri States, the New Mexico States, the Charlottes and Eastern Michigans, the Kansases of the world, that remind us that the sun will come up tomorrow in the east, set in the west, and repeat again and again. Knowing that Savannah will go to Stillwater and lose by eighty...knowing that one more Davidson Wildcat loss may be the one that pushes its Sagarin rating into negative numbers, knowing that the MVC is made up of nine amazing FCS teams...and Missouri State. That's what makes a prognosticator look smart!
DOWN to the GREG HARDY situation... I hate to say this, because it'll sound terrible...but I hope there's something medically or psychologically wrong with the Dallas Cowboys' two-game veteran defensive lineman Greg Hardy. If not, it means he's simply a complete a-hole, a jerk of gargantuan proportions. To barge into the special teams huddle (of which you have NO business being in at ALL, not being on special teams) and literally assault the ST coach is, by most standards of business practice, grounds for firing on its own, To then continue the infantile behavior with Dez Bryant (THERE's irony - Dez is the voice of reason?) and in the farcical press conference (no comment next question - wait for the question, meathead!) would be adequate grounds to be removed from the league, as no team would want you representing them in a pig-calling contest, much less in front of cameras ever again. But the real piece d'resistance, in my opinion, is his team's owner, the brilliant Jerry Jones, not only excusing his behavior (for which his coach, Jason Garrett, will not punish him at all), but praising his behavior as the kind of passion that they want their leaders to show! Congratulations, Dallas! You just sunk to number 33 on the list of my favorite NFL teams! (And yes, I realize there are only 32 teams. #32 on my list right now is being forced to watch highlights of the Chuck Pagano Special Teams Instructional video on permanent replay...)
DOWN to the idiots who would use the anonymity of Twitter and other social media to threaten athletes (AND their FAMILIES!) in ways they would never have the juevos to do in person. Without going into details, the fanatics who called out the poor Michigan punter following his dropped ball at the end of the Michigan State game were bad enough...the ones insulting the Dallas punt returner after his gaffe Sunday night were just as bad, although at least he's a professional athlete and "signed up" for the criticism. But the morons who went after his wife? What the heck? How do you figure she had anything to do with the dropped punt? Would they have gotten in her face had they met in the stadium? ...Wait a minute...maybe they would have. Didn't Giselle Brady have to deal with that after the Patriots lost a Super Bowl once? ...Sigh. It's amazing we ever evolved far enough as a species to come down from the trees. Apparently, we still fling our feces at each other for fun...
UP TO ALL OF YOU WHO READ THIS BLOG! Seriously, there's no profit margin or income of any sort involved in this project. It's simply a chance to continue a passion for football and the unpredictability of its outcomes, something my late wife and I started a few years ago on Facebook and then moved over to the blogosphere one year ago this month. To everyone who's ever read our work, which is now just my work, unfortunately... Thank you.
UP to the FIVE UNDEFEATED teams still left in the NFL at Hallow'een! I've heard different dates, but it's been many, many years since we've had five 6-0 teams - Green Bay, Cincinnati, Denver, Carolina, and New England. They're certainly deserving of their hallowed spots - New England and Green Bay were the consensus picks for Super Bowl combatants; Cincinnati's been tested repeatedly and looks better than any previous year in the Dalton era; and Cam Newton and that Carolina defense are doing just as well as Peyton Manning and that amazing Bronco defense! (Rephrase that: Cam's doing more that the legend, but the Denver D has been more impressive by far than any in the league.)
DOWN to the MOST DISAPPOINTING teams in the NFL this season... Baltimore fell to 1-6 last night, although a valiant effort to come back against a strong Arizona club fell short in the end zone. They've been within a score in every one of their games, and the Harbaugh coaching line will keep them competitive...but as for their own playoff hopes? Six losses is probably already as many as they can afford, and they're not going 9-0 the rest of the way. Seattle? Too early to say. Yes, they've lost more than expected, but they looked good against the Niners Thursday night. Can you call Chicago, Tampa, Tennessee, or Jacksonville "disappointing" if you weren't expecting anything from them? I think not. Certainly Detroit belongs on that list...
UP to the GREATEST NAME in modern football! Yesterday, in an effort to rearrange deck chairs on the Titanic, the Lions reneged on their promise not to change any coaches and changed coaches, firing the OC and replacing him with....wait for it...Jim Bob Cooter, a man who not only has the greatest name in the the business, but also a creative criminal record to boot: while he was at Tennessee several years ago, he was convicted of "aggravated assault" because he went into a woman's home, stripped down to his underwear, and climbed in bed with her. Had it been his wife, no worries. However, she didn't know him....OOPS! A promising move for Detroit.
DOWN to the MIAMI HURRICANE fans and alumni... who deserve whatever terrible coach they receive now that they've singlehandedly forced the ouster of Al Golden as their football coach. Certainly, the AD had no choice after the 58-0 debacle against Clemson, and even if you want to admit that the players seemed to play without interest, the firing only became necessary because the overzealous "fans" (remember, the word is short for "fanatic") demanded it. NOW...put yourself in the place of a prospective coach. Do you want to coach at Miami, having seen what they did to your predecessor? Miami was still 4-3, you know - not a bad season, although admittedly not national championship contenders. The expectations for a mid-level ACC program - and make no mistake: with the facility issues they have there, it IS a mid-level program! - are way overboard. If the poor fellow who takes the job ends his first four seasons has the same 32-25 record Golden did, I'll be impressed. And surprised.
UP to the DEPENDABILITY of the BOTTOM FEEDERS! As a phootball prophet of the lowest order, I depend on the reliability of the teams I work with in order to phorcast the outcomes of the games they play. We've seen an amazing array of turnabouts this year - for example, we expected Michigan to beat Michigan St, and they did...for the first 59:55 of the game, pre-punt. We thought Florida St would win over my son's beloved Ramblin' Wreck of Georgia Tech...until a field goal block returned for a game winner changed that outcome. We've seen ridiculous outcomes across the board - games I was absolutely SURE about came out the other way. AND YET, the one constant that keeps us above .500, above the line of sheer guess work? Well, it's the bottom feeder teams - the Savannah States, the Davidsons, the Missouri States, the New Mexico States, the Charlottes and Eastern Michigans, the Kansases of the world, that remind us that the sun will come up tomorrow in the east, set in the west, and repeat again and again. Knowing that Savannah will go to Stillwater and lose by eighty...knowing that one more Davidson Wildcat loss may be the one that pushes its Sagarin rating into negative numbers, knowing that the MVC is made up of nine amazing FCS teams...and Missouri State. That's what makes a prognosticator look smart!
DOWN to the GREG HARDY situation... I hate to say this, because it'll sound terrible...but I hope there's something medically or psychologically wrong with the Dallas Cowboys' two-game veteran defensive lineman Greg Hardy. If not, it means he's simply a complete a-hole, a jerk of gargantuan proportions. To barge into the special teams huddle (of which you have NO business being in at ALL, not being on special teams) and literally assault the ST coach is, by most standards of business practice, grounds for firing on its own, To then continue the infantile behavior with Dez Bryant (THERE's irony - Dez is the voice of reason?) and in the farcical press conference (no comment next question - wait for the question, meathead!) would be adequate grounds to be removed from the league, as no team would want you representing them in a pig-calling contest, much less in front of cameras ever again. But the real piece d'resistance, in my opinion, is his team's owner, the brilliant Jerry Jones, not only excusing his behavior (for which his coach, Jason Garrett, will not punish him at all), but praising his behavior as the kind of passion that they want their leaders to show! Congratulations, Dallas! You just sunk to number 33 on the list of my favorite NFL teams! (And yes, I realize there are only 32 teams. #32 on my list right now is being forced to watch highlights of the Chuck Pagano Special Teams Instructional video on permanent replay...)
DOWN to the idiots who would use the anonymity of Twitter and other social media to threaten athletes (AND their FAMILIES!) in ways they would never have the juevos to do in person. Without going into details, the fanatics who called out the poor Michigan punter following his dropped ball at the end of the Michigan State game were bad enough...the ones insulting the Dallas punt returner after his gaffe Sunday night were just as bad, although at least he's a professional athlete and "signed up" for the criticism. But the morons who went after his wife? What the heck? How do you figure she had anything to do with the dropped punt? Would they have gotten in her face had they met in the stadium? ...Wait a minute...maybe they would have. Didn't Giselle Brady have to deal with that after the Patriots lost a Super Bowl once? ...Sigh. It's amazing we ever evolved far enough as a species to come down from the trees. Apparently, we still fling our feces at each other for fun...
UP TO ALL OF YOU WHO READ THIS BLOG! Seriously, there's no profit margin or income of any sort involved in this project. It's simply a chance to continue a passion for football and the unpredictability of its outcomes, something my late wife and I started a few years ago on Facebook and then moved over to the blogosphere one year ago this month. To everyone who's ever read our work, which is now just my work, unfortunately... Thank you.
Thursday, September 24, 2015
Terminal Thursday Thoughts
I've talked about this all week, and this is my last scheduled post of the cycle, so let me start and end with the reminder: if you're reading this blog and want it to continue more or less as I'm doing...
The Eagles And Ravens Are Screwed
COMMENT ON THIS POST THIS WEEK!
The issue, of course, is that as much as I love doing this blog, as much as crunching numbers to quantify and align teams at their supposed performance levels is fun for me to do...the time and effort it takes to do the thorough job for all of the teams I feel need to be covered each week is more than I have available to me, at least when you combine that with my regular (read: "paying") job, caring for my children, and the deteriorating condition of my health (which has zero to do with this blog).
In the past, I've had people from Idaho, California, Nevada, North Carolina and Washington who've contacted me about what they've read, and I've known through that kind of anecdotal evidence that we were reaching people, that what we were doing was valued by someone out there. It's not like we need a thousand regular readers, but if we don't have any, which is what the lack of comment feedback suggests, we're just "spitting into the wind", as they say.
If that's not the case, we need you to tell us so.
CONTACT us through the comment section on this or either of the other two posts over the last two days (our regular UPS and DOWNS column, and our PROPHECIES in PHOOTBALL overview of the weekend's procedings (which starts today with the Giants and "Redskins" - an article on line today suggesting the life expectancy of the latter name is close to becoming a finite, definable number).
Here's a thought we were having ourselves that 538 picked up this morning - there seem to be a bunch of "good teams" in the NFL who have started their season 0-2, usually an indicator that the playoffs are out of reach for most. Consider this list of teams: Seattle, Baltimore, Indianapolis, Houston, Detroit, NJ Giants, and Philadelphia. History suggests that ONLY ONE of those seven teams will make it into the post-season! (I've not "forgotten" New Orleans and Chicago. That was intentional.) The chart below in the 538 article shows that of the 7-8 teams over the last two years to go 0-2, only one made the playoffs each year.To make the postseason, most of the time it'll take at least ten wins - and you only have fourteen games left to do so it. A tall order, given that something's not going well to begin with (or you wouldn't be 0-2!).
(By the way, my thought is that the best bet for a playoff team out of this group is the winner of the Indy/Houston race, as Jax and the Titans are unlikely to reach more than eight wins apiece.)
The Eagles And Ravens Are Screwed
By REUBEN FISCHER-BAUM and CHADWICK MATLIN
We’re two weeks into the NFL season, and nine teams are 0-2. But these winless squads are not created equal: The Seattle Seahawks, last season’s NFC champion, are clearly in better shape than the terrible Chicago Bears. Still, two games is an eighth of the season, and two early losses can wipe out even the best teams’ margin of error for the rest of the season.
So, how bad is it to start 0-2? And which of these nine teams have already screwed up their playoff chances?
Wednesday, April 15, 2015
Here's an array of (American) football topics on the front burner this morning...
The big story, of course, is that New England's former star receiver Aaron Hernandez has been found GUILTY in the murder of his associate Odin Lloyd by a jury of twelve. 130 witnesses took the stand in one of the most well-assembled cases in high-profile history (as OJ Simpson followers would agree). The verdict carries an automatic life without parole sentence, which makes all the other charges, well, kinda moot.
In the world of normal football kind of stuff...Pete Thamel of SI.com has a great interview with Ohio State guru Urban Meyer on their QB situation and much more...The rumors about San Diego trading Philip Rivers for, essentially, Marcus Mariota are discussed by MMQB icon Peter King...The Detroit Lions' front seven keeps adjusting, as now they're sending George Johnson back to Tampa Bay....and finally, shocker-of-shockers, the Cleveland Browns players are saying yeah, they noticed that Johnny Football/Manziel didn't seem to be too focused on his actual profession last year, so rehab wasn't a huge surprise. How anyone can be surprised by Manziel's struggles on and off the field is what would shock me. The kid had trouble stamped all over him, and if it hadn't been that Cleveland desperately needed to take a chance in order to try hitting a home run, drafting would've made no sense at all. It was a risk - probably not worth a first round draft choice, but then, go big if you want to get big, I suppose.
I wouldn't have done it.
In the world of normal football kind of stuff...Pete Thamel of SI.com has a great interview with Ohio State guru Urban Meyer on their QB situation and much more...The rumors about San Diego trading Philip Rivers for, essentially, Marcus Mariota are discussed by MMQB icon Peter King...The Detroit Lions' front seven keeps adjusting, as now they're sending George Johnson back to Tampa Bay....and finally, shocker-of-shockers, the Cleveland Browns players are saying yeah, they noticed that Johnny Football/Manziel didn't seem to be too focused on his actual profession last year, so rehab wasn't a huge surprise. How anyone can be surprised by Manziel's struggles on and off the field is what would shock me. The kid had trouble stamped all over him, and if it hadn't been that Cleveland desperately needed to take a chance in order to try hitting a home run, drafting would've made no sense at all. It was a risk - probably not worth a first round draft choice, but then, go big if you want to get big, I suppose.
I wouldn't have done it.
Tuesday, March 10, 2015
NFL ROUND-UP!
In the league that never sleeps, there's been lots of shuffling since we last looked in at the National Football League. Let's take a peek:
*Will the last one out of San Francisco's locker room please turn out the lights? Holy catfish, has that team become a mess all of a sudden!
*Philadelphia is definitely charting its own course - getting rid of DeSean and LeSean, two very talented players who DON'T fit the "Chip Kelly way", apparently. And while Stephen A Smith is known for saying ridiculous and outrageous things, and is being taken to task for his latest...I'm not so sure he's wrong. Those guys don't fit the way you do things, Mr. Kelly...but Riley Cooper does? Weird.
*Jeff Legwold has a great roundup of the major transactions and signings on ESPN today, including the departure of the Stupendous Stomper himself, Ndamukong Suh, to the Miami Dolphins for a contract said to be worth $114 million - only the fifth non-QB ever given a nine-figure contract. Notably (in my opinion), one of those other four was also a defensive lineman with an anger management problem, Albert Haynesworth, who was definitively not worth the contract. (The others include notables like JJ Watt, who so far is worth every penny.)
*Here's a notable non-trade: Jay Cutler is your 2015 Chicago Bears quarterback! Now...to make it work...
*While this is actually connected to the subscription part of ESPN ("Insider"), the visible-to-everyone section is a good tracker in itself to help you keep track of where every NFL free agent ends up.
*Will the last one out of San Francisco's locker room please turn out the lights? Holy catfish, has that team become a mess all of a sudden!
*Philadelphia is definitely charting its own course - getting rid of DeSean and LeSean, two very talented players who DON'T fit the "Chip Kelly way", apparently. And while Stephen A Smith is known for saying ridiculous and outrageous things, and is being taken to task for his latest...I'm not so sure he's wrong. Those guys don't fit the way you do things, Mr. Kelly...but Riley Cooper does? Weird.
*Jeff Legwold has a great roundup of the major transactions and signings on ESPN today, including the departure of the Stupendous Stomper himself, Ndamukong Suh, to the Miami Dolphins for a contract said to be worth $114 million - only the fifth non-QB ever given a nine-figure contract. Notably (in my opinion), one of those other four was also a defensive lineman with an anger management problem, Albert Haynesworth, who was definitively not worth the contract. (The others include notables like JJ Watt, who so far is worth every penny.)
*Here's a notable non-trade: Jay Cutler is your 2015 Chicago Bears quarterback! Now...to make it work...
*While this is actually connected to the subscription part of ESPN ("Insider"), the visible-to-everyone section is a good tracker in itself to help you keep track of where every NFL free agent ends up.
Friday, January 9, 2015
Remember yesterday, when I said that Character Counts?
So, yeah, I forgot I was talking about the National Football League.
This is the league that sent Ben Roethlisberger back into the fourth quarter of a playoff game last Sunday after being hit and getting (to a 98% degree of probability) a concussion which under the league's own newly-enacted concussion rules should have kept him out of the rest of the game - if not from the concussion itself, then from the examination protocol which by definition would have taken longer than they had left in the game.
Except...no, wait! There's Big Ben coming back into the game, three flipping plays later, dropping back to throw...perhaps the WORST pass of his professional life, right into the arms of the waiting Ravens and ending the Steelers' season. Explain again how that was helpful to anyone involved?
This is the league that calls penalties, walks them off...and then reneges on them. If someone can offer a better explanation, be my guest. I pray that this one was incompetence. The "mixed all-star crew" makes that more plausible, although why a professional referee marks off a penalty and THEN gets all the relevant points of view is beyond explanation.
Because if it's NOT incompetence, then that means they realized a Detroit first down with five minutes to go and a 20-17 lead past midfield probably made the game Detroit's to lose, a dangerous proposition if the league's flagship team, playing in its flagship stadium, were to lose to a no-public-perception team when the chance for an Ice Bowl rematch looms, Romo v Rodgers, and all that entails. Better to make it fourth down and pray that the corpse they installed as Lions coach actually punted on 4th and 1 at midfield. Which he did, and it went ten yards, and Romo had a man's drive, and Garrett made a man's call to go for it on 4th and 6, and from THAT standpoint the Cowboys absolutely deserved to win... But outcome does not justify poor choices, or idiocy; the end never justifies the means.
This is the league that calls penalties, walks them off...and then reneges on them. If someone can offer a better explanation, be my guest. I pray that this one was incompetence. The "mixed all-star crew" makes that more plausible, although why a professional referee marks off a penalty and THEN gets all the relevant points of view is beyond explanation.
Because if it's NOT incompetence, then that means they realized a Detroit first down with five minutes to go and a 20-17 lead past midfield probably made the game Detroit's to lose, a dangerous proposition if the league's flagship team, playing in its flagship stadium, were to lose to a no-public-perception team when the chance for an Ice Bowl rematch looms, Romo v Rodgers, and all that entails. Better to make it fourth down and pray that the corpse they installed as Lions coach actually punted on 4th and 1 at midfield. Which he did, and it went ten yards, and Romo had a man's drive, and Garrett made a man's call to go for it on 4th and 6, and from THAT standpoint the Cowboys absolutely deserved to win... But outcome does not justify poor choices, or idiocy; the end never justifies the means.
And now, this is the league which paid for its own "independent" investigation to investigate ITSELF with regards to what it knew about the Ray Rice elevator video when it issued the insanely inadequate two game punishment for a criminal act heinous enough that no one will even HIRE Rice again.
The Mueller Report, paid for by two league owners, found that (surprise!) the League office ISN'T comprised of liars: just incompetents! (Hooray!) Of course, since all of their original explanations involved them lying about being incompetent, you can draw your own conclusions. Certainly, since they claimed in September that they asked EVERYONE for a copy of the elevator video back in February that the Mueller Report says the proof shows they didn't know existed...well, either the NFL blatantly lied about that in order to - to what, make themselves look inept? - or the report itself is completely farcical, in which case they've succeeded in making us forget about the Warren Commission Report.
(If your history is as faulty as Roger Goodell's memory, the Warren Report proved that Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone in killing President Kennedy. The problem is, no one at the time believed a word of it, although time has proven that that was indeed the most likely scenario.)
The credibility of bureaucrats is often dicey to begin with, but when your best case scenario was that you were an idiot? Are you sure that's who you want in charge of your favorite sport?
Monday, January 5, 2015
Bill Barnwell on THAT CALL yesterday...
Grantland's Bill Barnwell covers the ridiculously reversed PI
call that turned the Dallas/Detroit game around in the fourth quarter yesterday, as
well as the poor concussion protocol of the Pittsburgh coaching staff and the sad situations in Cincinnati and Arizona resulting
from the injuries to their receivers and quarterbacks, respectively. His
opinions are basically the same as mine, and he articulates them better...
Sunday, January 4, 2015
The NFL playoffs have begun!
Sunday 5:47 pm
Redemption! DeMarco Lawrence made up for his earlier mistake, sacking Matthew Stafford on fourth down to win the game for the Cowboys, as Romo kneels to make it a 24-20 victory over Detroit.
For Following Football fans, we nailed both of today's games, and lost both of yesterday's. (Apologies for never getting to publish it. Those of you insiders know why things behind the scene at FF have been off-kilter for a couple of weeks.) We had Pittsburgh over Baltimore by five (the line was 3.5, closer than we were); Arizona even with Carolina (the line was 6.5 Carolina's way, obviously on track); Indianapolis by five over Cincinnati (favored by four, and they won by 16); and Dallas by four, which is what they just won by (they were seven point favorites). So we went 2-2, which puts our pro record for the actual blog site at 13-20, with two washes.
Sunday 5:40 pm
You're up four, two minutes to go, and the other team fumbles right into your hands. If you're anyone except Dallas' DeMarcus Lawrence, don't you just fall on the ball and let your offense run out the clock? The former Boise State player (sigh...), however, wanted to do something more - what, glorious? - and tried to juke people in front of him, whereupon he also fumbled the ball, right back into Lion hands, thereby providing the visitors a chance to return to their drive with a legit chance to win the game (now down four with a minute to go).
Sunday 3:14 pm
Aaaaaaaaaand there it is! Reggie Bush runs around a great block by WR Golden Tate on an 18-yard run to the corner of the end zone to complete the 99.9 yard touchdown drive. It took seven-plus minutes and 15 plays, along with that penalty on 4th down, but the Lions are now 2 for 2 on drives, while Dallas is 0-2.... ESPN says that's the first 99-yard drive in the playoffs since 2001.
Sunday 3:04 pm
Great first TD by the Detroit Lions to go up 7-0 early, lucky punt roll for Dallas that (combined with a Lions penalty) put the visitors on literally the few-inch line. But thanks to a running into the punter penalty in the end zone, the Lions are now on what could end up becoming an epic 99.8 yard drive if they can keep it going past midfield!
Sunday 2:20 pm
Cincinnati just had NO chance today against Indianapolis, or anyone else, for that matter. Too many receivers gone, no weapons for Andy Dalton to use whatsoever. Yes, he's now ohfer four, but don't hold this one against HIM. (For that matter, both of yesterday's losers, the Steelers and the Cardinals, were victims of MAJOR injuries that were the direct cause of their failures on offense.) Not sure the Colts have the weapons to run with the Broncos, but at least they're going to have a shot next week, where the Bengals wouldn't.
Saturday 9:02 pm
The most likely "upsets" of a home team were in the two games today - Baltimore's playoff experience and Arizona's sub-.500 opponent made them that way - and it's looking like we'll get one for two, as Terrell Suggs' interception between his thighs led to a Flacco TD pass which puts the Ravens up 30-15 with half a quarter to go. The lack of a run threat for Pittsburgh will cost them a playoff run, it seems...
Saturday 7:52 pm
Baltimore up 10-9 on Pittsburgh in a classic Northeast brawl, and their secondary's holding up so far! The Steelers are dealing well without LeVeon Bell to this point, too.
To finish up the 27-16 Carolina victory: they held Arizona to a playoff record low 78 yards of offense, and it can't help but bring to mind what the Cardinal radio team brought up as the end was in sight: "When we look back at this season, we won't be able to help wondering what might have been." Given their injury list, including multiple quarterbacks, we won't be able to help agreeing with them. Carolina made enough mistakes that we suspect Carson Palmer could have exploited successfully...for that matter, they wouldn't have been 11-5, either.
And for the record book: Teams under .500 entering the playoffs are now 2-0 in their playoff openers...
Saturday 5:23 pm
Listening to Mel Kiper is usually entertaining - to his credit, he's always brutally honest. On ESPN radio this morning, he offers that there were two teams going into the playoffs he knew he would pick against when the playoffs came: Arizona and Carolina. Imagine his disappointment when they ended up playing each other...and as the game continues, he was right. Neither team should win; neither team deserves a playoff win.
According to our tiered rankings for Week 17, the Cardinals should have been favored, but that doesn't account for the rise of the Panthers in the last few weeks and the fifth string quarterback Arizona's been forced to use now. It probably shouldn't be a surprise that Carolina's up 27-14 in the fourth quarter and en route to a defeat next round in the cold of either Washington or Wisconsin...
Redemption! DeMarco Lawrence made up for his earlier mistake, sacking Matthew Stafford on fourth down to win the game for the Cowboys, as Romo kneels to make it a 24-20 victory over Detroit.
For Following Football fans, we nailed both of today's games, and lost both of yesterday's. (Apologies for never getting to publish it. Those of you insiders know why things behind the scene at FF have been off-kilter for a couple of weeks.) We had Pittsburgh over Baltimore by five (the line was 3.5, closer than we were); Arizona even with Carolina (the line was 6.5 Carolina's way, obviously on track); Indianapolis by five over Cincinnati (favored by four, and they won by 16); and Dallas by four, which is what they just won by (they were seven point favorites). So we went 2-2, which puts our pro record for the actual blog site at 13-20, with two washes.
Sunday 5:40 pm
You're up four, two minutes to go, and the other team fumbles right into your hands. If you're anyone except Dallas' DeMarcus Lawrence, don't you just fall on the ball and let your offense run out the clock? The former Boise State player (sigh...), however, wanted to do something more - what, glorious? - and tried to juke people in front of him, whereupon he also fumbled the ball, right back into Lion hands, thereby providing the visitors a chance to return to their drive with a legit chance to win the game (now down four with a minute to go).
Sunday 3:14 pm
Aaaaaaaaaand there it is! Reggie Bush runs around a great block by WR Golden Tate on an 18-yard run to the corner of the end zone to complete the 99.9 yard touchdown drive. It took seven-plus minutes and 15 plays, along with that penalty on 4th down, but the Lions are now 2 for 2 on drives, while Dallas is 0-2.... ESPN says that's the first 99-yard drive in the playoffs since 2001.
Sunday 3:04 pm
Great first TD by the Detroit Lions to go up 7-0 early, lucky punt roll for Dallas that (combined with a Lions penalty) put the visitors on literally the few-inch line. But thanks to a running into the punter penalty in the end zone, the Lions are now on what could end up becoming an epic 99.8 yard drive if they can keep it going past midfield!
Sunday 2:20 pm
Cincinnati just had NO chance today against Indianapolis, or anyone else, for that matter. Too many receivers gone, no weapons for Andy Dalton to use whatsoever. Yes, he's now ohfer four, but don't hold this one against HIM. (For that matter, both of yesterday's losers, the Steelers and the Cardinals, were victims of MAJOR injuries that were the direct cause of their failures on offense.) Not sure the Colts have the weapons to run with the Broncos, but at least they're going to have a shot next week, where the Bengals wouldn't.
Saturday 9:02 pm
The most likely "upsets" of a home team were in the two games today - Baltimore's playoff experience and Arizona's sub-.500 opponent made them that way - and it's looking like we'll get one for two, as Terrell Suggs' interception between his thighs led to a Flacco TD pass which puts the Ravens up 30-15 with half a quarter to go. The lack of a run threat for Pittsburgh will cost them a playoff run, it seems...
Saturday 7:52 pm
Baltimore up 10-9 on Pittsburgh in a classic Northeast brawl, and their secondary's holding up so far! The Steelers are dealing well without LeVeon Bell to this point, too.
To finish up the 27-16 Carolina victory: they held Arizona to a playoff record low 78 yards of offense, and it can't help but bring to mind what the Cardinal radio team brought up as the end was in sight: "When we look back at this season, we won't be able to help wondering what might have been." Given their injury list, including multiple quarterbacks, we won't be able to help agreeing with them. Carolina made enough mistakes that we suspect Carson Palmer could have exploited successfully...for that matter, they wouldn't have been 11-5, either.
And for the record book: Teams under .500 entering the playoffs are now 2-0 in their playoff openers...
Saturday 5:23 pm
Listening to Mel Kiper is usually entertaining - to his credit, he's always brutally honest. On ESPN radio this morning, he offers that there were two teams going into the playoffs he knew he would pick against when the playoffs came: Arizona and Carolina. Imagine his disappointment when they ended up playing each other...and as the game continues, he was right. Neither team should win; neither team deserves a playoff win.
According to our tiered rankings for Week 17, the Cardinals should have been favored, but that doesn't account for the rise of the Panthers in the last few weeks and the fifth string quarterback Arizona's been forced to use now. It probably shouldn't be a surprise that Carolina's up 27-14 in the fourth quarter and en route to a defeat next round in the cold of either Washington or Wisconsin...
Saturday, January 3, 2015
Did we forget to publish our season end NFL Tiers?
WOW! CAN'T BELIEVE THAT!
So, that's embarassing enough, but even more so because when you look at these rankings and tiers and compare them with the records, you'll think we just looked at the RECORDS and ranked them in that order. We swear! That's not how it happened!
We really did sort the teams first, looking at how they performed in week 17 and adjusted their previous tiers accordingly, and THEN looked up the records. To our chagrin...
Picking NFL playoff games is a fairly straightforward crapshoot. Chalk always says, pick the home team in the first round. (The tiers say take Arizona over Carolina, though. Not sure our guts agree.) In the second round ALWAYS take the home team with the bye to rest up. After that...good luck!!
Regardless, here are our season-end tiers with rankings from 1-32:
A - 1. Seattle (12-4, 10-2 in conference, 5-1 in division games, 7-1 at home)
2. New England (12-4, 9-3, 4-2, 7-1)
3. Green Bay (12-4, 9-3, 5-1, 8-0)
4. Denver (12-4, 10-2, 6-0, 8-0)
5. Dallas (12-4, 8-4, 4-2, 4-4)
These five teams all have the tools to win it all. Hard to imagine Dallas going to both Wisconsin AND Washington and winning twice, though.
B - 6. Detroit (11-5, 9-3, 5-1, 7-1)
7. Pittsburgh (11-5, 9-3, 4-2, 6-2)
8. Indianapolis (11-5, 9-3, 6-0, 6-2)
These three teams have a chance, but they're flawed teams that are going to have to have exceptional runs from other segments of the team to make up for those flaws to win it all.
C - 9. Arizona (11-5, 8-4, 3-3, 7-1)
10. Baltimore (10-6, 6-6, 3-3, 6-2)
11. Cincinnati (10-5-1, 7-5, 3-3, 5-2-1)
12. Philadelphia (10-6, 6-6, 4-2, 6-2)
They're all four good teams, deserving of playoff spots, but we just can't see them overcoming their seedings to make it to the Super Bowl. (Especially the Eagles. Duh.)
D - 13. San Diego (9-7, 6-6, 2-4, 5-3)
14. Buffalo (9-7, 5-7, 4-2, 5-3)
15. Kansas City (9-7, 7-5, 3-3, 6-2)
16. Miami (8-8, 6-6, 3-3, 4-4)
17. San Francisco (8-8, 7-5, 2-4, 4-4)
18. Houston (9-7, 8-4, 4-2, 5-3)
19. Carolina (7-8-1, 6-6, 4-2, 4-4)
All good seasons, but not good enough (unless you play in the NFC South). Still, nothing to be ashamed of. It's interesting to watch mid-tier teams' reactions to a season like this, whether it becomes "something they can build on" or "there are things we need to improve on next year" or (in one case) "Hey, Michigan? Ya want him?"
E - 20. St. Louis (6-10, 4-8, 2-4, 3-5)
21. New Orleans (7-9, 6-6, 3-3, 3-5)
22. Cleveland (7-9, 4-8, 2-4, 4-4)
23. New York Giants (6-10, 4-8, 2-4, 3-5)
24. Minnesota (7-9, 6-6, 1-5, 5-3)
F - 25. Atlanta (6-10, 6-6, 5-1, 3-5)
Each of these teams has things that they can build on for next year, although watching Carolina's demolition of the Falcons on Sunday makes it hard to find anything beyond Matt Ryan in Atlanta; hence the separate tiering for the now coachless Falcon club.
G - 26. Chicago (5-11, 4-8, 1-5, 2-6)
27. Washington (4-12, 2-10, 2-4, 3-5)
28. New York Jets (4-12, 4-8, 1-5, 2-6)
29. Oakland (3-13, 2-10, 1-5, 3-5)
We're not big fans of the instinctive "fire the coach" reactions, but SOMETHING has to change for each of these teams. Coach, key players, owners, SOMETHING.
H - 30. Jacksonville (3-13, 2-10, 1-5, 3-5)
31. Tampa Bay (2-14, 1-11, 0-6, 0-8)
32. Tennessee (2-14, 2-10, 1-5, 1-7)
If there were somewhere to relegate these teams to - a "minor league" besides the FBS - we'd send these three teams there in a heartbeat. (Hey! They're all in SEC country! I wonder...) Besides, Florida doesn't really need three pro teams. Send one to LA and one to London.
So, that's embarassing enough, but even more so because when you look at these rankings and tiers and compare them with the records, you'll think we just looked at the RECORDS and ranked them in that order. We swear! That's not how it happened!
We really did sort the teams first, looking at how they performed in week 17 and adjusted their previous tiers accordingly, and THEN looked up the records. To our chagrin...
Picking NFL playoff games is a fairly straightforward crapshoot. Chalk always says, pick the home team in the first round. (The tiers say take Arizona over Carolina, though. Not sure our guts agree.) In the second round ALWAYS take the home team with the bye to rest up. After that...good luck!!
Regardless, here are our season-end tiers with rankings from 1-32:
A - 1. Seattle (12-4, 10-2 in conference, 5-1 in division games, 7-1 at home)
2. New England (12-4, 9-3, 4-2, 7-1)
3. Green Bay (12-4, 9-3, 5-1, 8-0)
4. Denver (12-4, 10-2, 6-0, 8-0)
5. Dallas (12-4, 8-4, 4-2, 4-4)
These five teams all have the tools to win it all. Hard to imagine Dallas going to both Wisconsin AND Washington and winning twice, though.
B - 6. Detroit (11-5, 9-3, 5-1, 7-1)
7. Pittsburgh (11-5, 9-3, 4-2, 6-2)
8. Indianapolis (11-5, 9-3, 6-0, 6-2)
These three teams have a chance, but they're flawed teams that are going to have to have exceptional runs from other segments of the team to make up for those flaws to win it all.
C - 9. Arizona (11-5, 8-4, 3-3, 7-1)
10. Baltimore (10-6, 6-6, 3-3, 6-2)
11. Cincinnati (10-5-1, 7-5, 3-3, 5-2-1)
12. Philadelphia (10-6, 6-6, 4-2, 6-2)
They're all four good teams, deserving of playoff spots, but we just can't see them overcoming their seedings to make it to the Super Bowl. (Especially the Eagles. Duh.)
D - 13. San Diego (9-7, 6-6, 2-4, 5-3)
14. Buffalo (9-7, 5-7, 4-2, 5-3)
15. Kansas City (9-7, 7-5, 3-3, 6-2)
16. Miami (8-8, 6-6, 3-3, 4-4)
17. San Francisco (8-8, 7-5, 2-4, 4-4)
18. Houston (9-7, 8-4, 4-2, 5-3)
19. Carolina (7-8-1, 6-6, 4-2, 4-4)
All good seasons, but not good enough (unless you play in the NFC South). Still, nothing to be ashamed of. It's interesting to watch mid-tier teams' reactions to a season like this, whether it becomes "something they can build on" or "there are things we need to improve on next year" or (in one case) "Hey, Michigan? Ya want him?"
E - 20. St. Louis (6-10, 4-8, 2-4, 3-5)
21. New Orleans (7-9, 6-6, 3-3, 3-5)
22. Cleveland (7-9, 4-8, 2-4, 4-4)
23. New York Giants (6-10, 4-8, 2-4, 3-5)
24. Minnesota (7-9, 6-6, 1-5, 5-3)
F - 25. Atlanta (6-10, 6-6, 5-1, 3-5)
Each of these teams has things that they can build on for next year, although watching Carolina's demolition of the Falcons on Sunday makes it hard to find anything beyond Matt Ryan in Atlanta; hence the separate tiering for the now coachless Falcon club.
G - 26. Chicago (5-11, 4-8, 1-5, 2-6)
27. Washington (4-12, 2-10, 2-4, 3-5)
28. New York Jets (4-12, 4-8, 1-5, 2-6)
29. Oakland (3-13, 2-10, 1-5, 3-5)
We're not big fans of the instinctive "fire the coach" reactions, but SOMETHING has to change for each of these teams. Coach, key players, owners, SOMETHING.
H - 30. Jacksonville (3-13, 2-10, 1-5, 3-5)
31. Tampa Bay (2-14, 1-11, 0-6, 0-8)
32. Tennessee (2-14, 2-10, 1-5, 1-7)
If there were somewhere to relegate these teams to - a "minor league" besides the FBS - we'd send these three teams there in a heartbeat. (Hey! They're all in SEC country! I wonder...) Besides, Florida doesn't really need three pro teams. Send one to LA and one to London.
Sunday, December 28, 2014
The first ever FOLLOWING FOOTBALL NFL All-League TEAM!
We're going to take a shot at this All-League team business (since everyone else does!). Unlike MOST such endeavors, we're trying something that sounds simply ridiculous on the surface...we refused to name our team until the regular season ENDS! None of this "2 games to go" stuff for us! It's All-League for the 2014 SEASON...and the season didn't end until Sunday! (We have similar semantic complaints for not calling it the "first annual"...it's not annual until we do it again next year!) Please understand, this goes against our anti-fantasy football mindset...but there are indeed certain players that stand out above their peers.
Okay, so, here goes!
Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay.
As much as we love Peyton around here, Rodgers has yet to throw an interception in Wisconsin this year! Only one of his interceptions (out of a whopping five) was arguably his fault: four of the five hit his receiver's hands first. He has done more with less for years, this year no exception.
Running Backs: DeMarco Murray, Dallas / Marshawn Lynch, Seattle
It's the year of the DeMarco - we would've liked to see him hit 2000, but in a pass-happy league, 1900? is a pretty amazing feat! As for Marshawn, anyone who won't put up with the insufferability of the press is cool with us! After the back breaking run against Arizona in week 16, it was hard to give it to anyone else.
Wideouts: Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh / Dez Bryant, Dallas
Brown led all receivers by something like twenty catches in 2014, but even so he never looked as dominant as Bryant looked on occasion, especially against the poor overmatched Colts secondary a couple weeks back. (Although his last game against the Bengals looked DANGED impressive...)
Tight End: Rob Gronkowski, New England
Hard not to give it to one of the old guard; Antonio Gates, for example, or Vernon Davis.. But Gronk has been too critical to the Patriots' success this year. He leads all tight ends in yardage by a wide margin, and is tied for total catches with 82.
Offensive Line: Dallas Cowboys
This should absolutely be a team unit award. Following Football recognizes the unit which works together the most effectively, and no unit was as good as the Cowboys, especially during the first half of the year.
Defensive Tackle: Ndamukong Suh, Detroit / Terrence Knighton, Denver
We know it would be easier to pick more DEs and call them all front liners, but the DT is just as crucial to the success of the defense, if not as spectacular. Suh really is that spectacular, though, when he's behaving himself (unlike Sunday) and not costing his team penalty yards or himself fine money. Knighton has clogged up the middle for the deceptively good Bronco D all year.
Defensive End: JJ Watt, Houston / Calais Campbell, Arizona
Watt has been insanely spectacular this year. He led the league in just about every category - sack yardage, QB hits, blah, blah, blah... - besides catching passes, running back both a fumble and an interception, selling popcorn at halftime, and God only knows what else. Bill Simmons once said that the only thing that could've made his season any better is throwing a touchdown pass...and that's coming. The Arizona Cardinals have had one of the great defenses all season, and Campbell is one of the primary reasons why. Our other choices here, Mario Williams in Buffalo and Cameron Wake in Miami, would have been just as qualified: Campbell's recognition is as much for Arizona's defense as a team as for his own talents on the field.
Linebackers: Luke Kuechly, Carolina / Justin Houston, Kansas City / DeAndre Levy, Detroit
Kuechly never heard the rule about not supposing to be as big a numbers guy in the pros as in the ACC. Houston merely set the Chiefs record for sacks, leading the league with 22 (beating even Watt this year, and the second highest all time!). Levy played solidly all season, and particularly towards the end of the year.
Safeties: Earl Thomas, Seattle / Patrick Peterson, Arizona
All right, technically Peterson is probably a cornerback, but what we love about his game is his ability to hit as well as cover, not to mention his kick return talents, and so we're getting him on our field one way or another. Thomas, however, is a pure safety who's as good as they get, year after year.
Cornerbacks: Richard Sherman, Seattle / Darrell Revis, New England
Rarely have two such defenders existed the same season, where no sane QB throws to their side regardless of which favorite receiver of his is running patterns with that DB. But neither Sherman nor Revis were successfully challenged all season, really.
Placekicker: Matt Bryant, Atlanta
Perfect on extra points, 28 of 31 on field goals with all three misses past 50 yards long (and he made seven of those, the most in the league), and a complete kicker.
Punter: Sam Koch, Baltimore
Second in gross average, his inside 20s/touchback ratio of 9 to 1 is outstanding, and very few returners actually ran back punts (and rarely for distance, averaging less than seven YPR).
Return specialist: Darren Sproles, Philadelphia.
It's tempting to give Devon Hester a career-achievement award here, but he didn't have the year Sproles did in his new home in Philly, where he almost single-handedly kept them afloat when the offense struggled this year.
Head coach: Pete Carroll, Seattle
What the former USC escapee has done in Seattle is downright amazing: defense AND offense are clicking, and the sheer ability to avoid the usual post-Super Bowl deflation (the major cause of the slow start this year was injuries, not SBD) needs to be recognized!
Notable exclusions: QB - Tom Brady, New England; Russell Wilson, Seattle; Tony Romo, Dallas; Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh. RB - LeVeon Bell, Pittsburgh; Arian Foster, Houston; LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia; CJ Anderson, Denver; Jamaal Charles, Kansas City. WR - AJ Green, Cincinnati; Odelle Beckham, Jr., NY Giants; Julio Jones, Atlanta. TE - Julius Thomas, Denver; Jimmy Graham, New Orleans. OL - Seattle; DE - Mario Williams, Buffalo; Cameron Wake, Miami, DeMarcus Ware, Denver. LB - LaVonte David, Tampa Bay. S - Charles Woodson, Oakland; Glover Quin, Detroit. CB - Aqib Talib, Denver; Vontae Davis, Indianapolis. PK - Adam Viniteri, Indianapolis; HC - Bill Belechick, New England, Bruce Arians, Arizona; Jim Caldwell, Detroit.
TOTAL Recognitions by team: SEATTLE, 4 (6 counting exclusions), DALLAS, 3 (4 counting exclusions), NEW ENGLAND 2 (4), DETROIT 2 (4), ARIZONA 2 (3), DENVER 1 (5), PITTSBURGH 1 (3), PHILADELPHIA 1 (2), ATLANTA 1 (2), HOUSTON 1 (2), KANSAS CITY 1 (2), BALTIMORE 1 (1), GREEN BAY 1 (1), CAROLINA 1 (1), INDIANAPOLIS 0 (2), CINCINNATI 0 (1), BUFFALO 0 (1), TAMPA BAY 0 (1), NY GIANTS 0 (1), NEW ORLEANS 0 (1), MIAMI 0 (1), OAKLAND 0 (1). None from NY Jets, Cleveland, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Washington, San Francisco, St. Louis, Minnesota, Chicago, or San Diego (although it killed us to leave Rivers off).
Okay, so, here goes!
Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay.
As much as we love Peyton around here, Rodgers has yet to throw an interception in Wisconsin this year! Only one of his interceptions (out of a whopping five) was arguably his fault: four of the five hit his receiver's hands first. He has done more with less for years, this year no exception.
Running Backs: DeMarco Murray, Dallas / Marshawn Lynch, Seattle
It's the year of the DeMarco - we would've liked to see him hit 2000, but in a pass-happy league, 1900? is a pretty amazing feat! As for Marshawn, anyone who won't put up with the insufferability of the press is cool with us! After the back breaking run against Arizona in week 16, it was hard to give it to anyone else.
Wideouts: Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh / Dez Bryant, Dallas
Brown led all receivers by something like twenty catches in 2014, but even so he never looked as dominant as Bryant looked on occasion, especially against the poor overmatched Colts secondary a couple weeks back. (Although his last game against the Bengals looked DANGED impressive...)
Tight End: Rob Gronkowski, New England
Hard not to give it to one of the old guard; Antonio Gates, for example, or Vernon Davis.. But Gronk has been too critical to the Patriots' success this year. He leads all tight ends in yardage by a wide margin, and is tied for total catches with 82.
Offensive Line: Dallas Cowboys
This should absolutely be a team unit award. Following Football recognizes the unit which works together the most effectively, and no unit was as good as the Cowboys, especially during the first half of the year.
Defensive Tackle: Ndamukong Suh, Detroit / Terrence Knighton, Denver
We know it would be easier to pick more DEs and call them all front liners, but the DT is just as crucial to the success of the defense, if not as spectacular. Suh really is that spectacular, though, when he's behaving himself (unlike Sunday) and not costing his team penalty yards or himself fine money. Knighton has clogged up the middle for the deceptively good Bronco D all year.
Defensive End: JJ Watt, Houston / Calais Campbell, Arizona
Watt has been insanely spectacular this year. He led the league in just about every category - sack yardage, QB hits, blah, blah, blah... - besides catching passes, running back both a fumble and an interception, selling popcorn at halftime, and God only knows what else. Bill Simmons once said that the only thing that could've made his season any better is throwing a touchdown pass...and that's coming. The Arizona Cardinals have had one of the great defenses all season, and Campbell is one of the primary reasons why. Our other choices here, Mario Williams in Buffalo and Cameron Wake in Miami, would have been just as qualified: Campbell's recognition is as much for Arizona's defense as a team as for his own talents on the field.
Linebackers: Luke Kuechly, Carolina / Justin Houston, Kansas City / DeAndre Levy, Detroit
Kuechly never heard the rule about not supposing to be as big a numbers guy in the pros as in the ACC. Houston merely set the Chiefs record for sacks, leading the league with 22 (beating even Watt this year, and the second highest all time!). Levy played solidly all season, and particularly towards the end of the year.
Safeties: Earl Thomas, Seattle / Patrick Peterson, Arizona
All right, technically Peterson is probably a cornerback, but what we love about his game is his ability to hit as well as cover, not to mention his kick return talents, and so we're getting him on our field one way or another. Thomas, however, is a pure safety who's as good as they get, year after year.
Cornerbacks: Richard Sherman, Seattle / Darrell Revis, New England
Rarely have two such defenders existed the same season, where no sane QB throws to their side regardless of which favorite receiver of his is running patterns with that DB. But neither Sherman nor Revis were successfully challenged all season, really.
Placekicker: Matt Bryant, Atlanta
Perfect on extra points, 28 of 31 on field goals with all three misses past 50 yards long (and he made seven of those, the most in the league), and a complete kicker.
Punter: Sam Koch, Baltimore
Second in gross average, his inside 20s/touchback ratio of 9 to 1 is outstanding, and very few returners actually ran back punts (and rarely for distance, averaging less than seven YPR).
Return specialist: Darren Sproles, Philadelphia.
It's tempting to give Devon Hester a career-achievement award here, but he didn't have the year Sproles did in his new home in Philly, where he almost single-handedly kept them afloat when the offense struggled this year.
Head coach: Pete Carroll, Seattle
What the former USC escapee has done in Seattle is downright amazing: defense AND offense are clicking, and the sheer ability to avoid the usual post-Super Bowl deflation (the major cause of the slow start this year was injuries, not SBD) needs to be recognized!
Notable exclusions: QB - Tom Brady, New England; Russell Wilson, Seattle; Tony Romo, Dallas; Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh. RB - LeVeon Bell, Pittsburgh; Arian Foster, Houston; LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia; CJ Anderson, Denver; Jamaal Charles, Kansas City. WR - AJ Green, Cincinnati; Odelle Beckham, Jr., NY Giants; Julio Jones, Atlanta. TE - Julius Thomas, Denver; Jimmy Graham, New Orleans. OL - Seattle; DE - Mario Williams, Buffalo; Cameron Wake, Miami, DeMarcus Ware, Denver. LB - LaVonte David, Tampa Bay. S - Charles Woodson, Oakland; Glover Quin, Detroit. CB - Aqib Talib, Denver; Vontae Davis, Indianapolis. PK - Adam Viniteri, Indianapolis; HC - Bill Belechick, New England, Bruce Arians, Arizona; Jim Caldwell, Detroit.
TOTAL Recognitions by team: SEATTLE, 4 (6 counting exclusions), DALLAS, 3 (4 counting exclusions), NEW ENGLAND 2 (4), DETROIT 2 (4), ARIZONA 2 (3), DENVER 1 (5), PITTSBURGH 1 (3), PHILADELPHIA 1 (2), ATLANTA 1 (2), HOUSTON 1 (2), KANSAS CITY 1 (2), BALTIMORE 1 (1), GREEN BAY 1 (1), CAROLINA 1 (1), INDIANAPOLIS 0 (2), CINCINNATI 0 (1), BUFFALO 0 (1), TAMPA BAY 0 (1), NY GIANTS 0 (1), NEW ORLEANS 0 (1), MIAMI 0 (1), OAKLAND 0 (1). None from NY Jets, Cleveland, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Washington, San Francisco, St. Louis, Minnesota, Chicago, or San Diego (although it killed us to leave Rivers off).
Wednesday, December 17, 2014
Awesome. Maybe "NFL" isn't "no fun league" after all...
Remember when the Bills' home game against the Jets was snowed out, and they had to move the game to Detroit? The Lions weren't home that week, so Ford Field was available - it was still an inconvenience, we're sure, but in the end the big picture is what counted to the Lions.
Well, apparently the Bills were very appreciative...
Well, apparently the Bills were very appreciative...
Monday, December 15, 2014
SO...who will make the NFL playoffs?
With two weeks left in the season, we're still only down to about twenty teams who can still be one of the twelve playoff teams! Eleven AFC teams are still eligible for the tournament, although three spots were clinched yesterday (division champs Denver, Indianapolis, and New England). Meanwhile, six teams fight for five spots in the NFC, plus the one team who will eventually "win" the NFC Southern division out of three candidates still vying for the spot.
Projecting the likely winners of the Week 16 & 17 games from the Following Football tiers, we have predictions of those playoff teams:
NFC: East - Philadelphia (win at Wash, win at NYG) = 11-5-0
Dallas (loss v. Indy, win at Wash) = 11-5-0
North - Green Bay (win at Tampa, win v. Det) = 12-4-0
Detroit (win at Chic, loss at Green Bay) = 11-5-0
South - New Orleans (loss tonight at Chic, win v Atl, win at TB) = 7-9-0
Carolina (win v. Cleveland, loss at Atlanta) = 6-9-1
Atlanta (loss at New Orleans, win v Carolina) = 6-10-0
West - Arizona (win v Seattle, win at SF) = 13-3-0
Seattle (loss at Ariz, win v. StL) = 11-5-0
NFC PLAYOFF TEAMS:
#1 seed = Arizona (13-3)
#2 seed = Green Bay (12-4)
#3 seed = Philadelphia (11-5) [better div record than Dallas]
#4 seed = New Orleans (7-9)
#5 seed = Detroit (11-5) [better conf. record than Dallas or Seattle]
#6 seed = Dallas (11-5) [def. Seattle head-to-head]
...and Seattle's out of the playoffs...
AFC: East - *New England (win at NYJ, win v. Buff) = 13-3-0
Miami (win v. Minn, win v. NYJ) = 9-7-0
Buffalo (win at Oak, loss at NE) = 9-7-0
North - Pittsburgh (win v KC, win v. Cinc) = 11-5-0
Baltimore (loss at Hous, win v Clev) = 10-6-0
Cincinnati (loss v Denv, loss at Pitt) = 9-6-1
Cleveland (loss at Carol, loss at Balt) = 7-9-0
South - *Indianapolis (win at Dal, win at Ten) = 12-4-0
Houston (win v Balt, win v. Jax) = 9-7-0
West - *Denver (win at Cinc, win v Oak) = 13-3-0
Kansas City (loss at Pitt, win v SD) = 9-7-0
San Diego (loss at SF, loss at KC) = 8-8-0
AFC PLAYOFF TEAMS:
#1 seed = New England (13-3) [def. Denver head to head]
#2 seed = Denver (13-3)
#3 seed = Indianapolis (12-4)
#4 seed = Pittsburgh (11-5)
#5 seed = Baltimore (10-6)
#6 seed = Cincinnati (9-6-1)
...alas, no up-n-comers (Miami, Buffalo, Houston, KC all 9-7; that tie keeps the Bengals in the playoffs after all!)...
Our forecast beyond that? Anything goes. "We predict that one of those twelve teams will win the Super Bowl!" That's the most we'll commit to in a one-game knockout tournament where the #6 seed has won as often as the #1 seeds have!
Projecting the likely winners of the Week 16 & 17 games from the Following Football tiers, we have predictions of those playoff teams:
NFC: East - Philadelphia (win at Wash, win at NYG) = 11-5-0
Dallas (loss v. Indy, win at Wash) = 11-5-0
North - Green Bay (win at Tampa, win v. Det) = 12-4-0
Detroit (win at Chic, loss at Green Bay) = 11-5-0
South - New Orleans (loss tonight at Chic, win v Atl, win at TB) = 7-9-0
Carolina (win v. Cleveland, loss at Atlanta) = 6-9-1
Atlanta (loss at New Orleans, win v Carolina) = 6-10-0
West - Arizona (win v Seattle, win at SF) = 13-3-0
Seattle (loss at Ariz, win v. StL) = 11-5-0
NFC PLAYOFF TEAMS:
#1 seed = Arizona (13-3)
#2 seed = Green Bay (12-4)
#3 seed = Philadelphia (11-5) [better div record than Dallas]
#4 seed = New Orleans (7-9)
#5 seed = Detroit (11-5) [better conf. record than Dallas or Seattle]
#6 seed = Dallas (11-5) [def. Seattle head-to-head]
...and Seattle's out of the playoffs...
AFC: East - *New England (win at NYJ, win v. Buff) = 13-3-0
Miami (win v. Minn, win v. NYJ) = 9-7-0
Buffalo (win at Oak, loss at NE) = 9-7-0
North - Pittsburgh (win v KC, win v. Cinc) = 11-5-0
Baltimore (loss at Hous, win v Clev) = 10-6-0
Cincinnati (loss v Denv, loss at Pitt) = 9-6-1
Cleveland (loss at Carol, loss at Balt) = 7-9-0
South - *Indianapolis (win at Dal, win at Ten) = 12-4-0
Houston (win v Balt, win v. Jax) = 9-7-0
West - *Denver (win at Cinc, win v Oak) = 13-3-0
Kansas City (loss at Pitt, win v SD) = 9-7-0
San Diego (loss at SF, loss at KC) = 8-8-0
AFC PLAYOFF TEAMS:
#1 seed = New England (13-3) [def. Denver head to head]
#2 seed = Denver (13-3)
#3 seed = Indianapolis (12-4)
#4 seed = Pittsburgh (11-5)
#5 seed = Baltimore (10-6)
#6 seed = Cincinnati (9-6-1)
...alas, no up-n-comers (Miami, Buffalo, Houston, KC all 9-7; that tie keeps the Bengals in the playoffs after all!)...
Our forecast beyond that? Anything goes. "We predict that one of those twelve teams will win the Super Bowl!" That's the most we'll commit to in a one-game knockout tournament where the #6 seed has won as often as the #1 seeds have!
Wednesday, December 10, 2014
We never covered how the predictions went this weekend...
...so here we go!
FBS games: Oregon beat Arizona BIG, 51-13 (point Vegas)...Marshall barely edged La-Tech (point us)...Connecticut not only lost to the spread but lost outright to previously winless SMU, 27-20 (point us)...Alabama whupped Missouri in the end, 42-13 (point them)...and we were correct to choose Ohio St over Wisconsin (they squeaked by the Badgers 59-0! - point us!) ----- Score: Vegas 2, FF 3!
FCS games: There were two on our "disagreement" list - we were correct in thinking that Sam Houston would give Jacksonville St fits; they did, and won 37-26. However, Illinois St handled Northern Iowa with ease, 41-21. So ------ Score: Vegas 3, FF 4!
NFL games: Going down the five games we marked (wish we'd thought to mark the Detroit/Tampa discrepancy; we would've won that one!)... St. Louis blanked the Redskins, 24-0 (point them)...the Giants wiped out the Titans, 36-7 (and knocked Tennessee to the Bottom slot, H32; point them)...we were right to think the Saints were in trouble, but even we didn't expect the offensive ineptitude we saw from a Drew Brees-led offense (point us)... Although Arizona won, they only won by three, so by a hair, (point Vegas)...and the Raiders dispatched their cross-bay rivals with ease, 24-13; (point FF). ------ FINAL Score: Vegas 6, FF 6. (Like I said...wished we'd claimed that Detroit game!)
FBS games: Oregon beat Arizona BIG, 51-13 (point Vegas)...Marshall barely edged La-Tech (point us)...Connecticut not only lost to the spread but lost outright to previously winless SMU, 27-20 (point us)...Alabama whupped Missouri in the end, 42-13 (point them)...and we were correct to choose Ohio St over Wisconsin (they squeaked by the Badgers 59-0! - point us!) ----- Score: Vegas 2, FF 3!
FCS games: There were two on our "disagreement" list - we were correct in thinking that Sam Houston would give Jacksonville St fits; they did, and won 37-26. However, Illinois St handled Northern Iowa with ease, 41-21. So ------ Score: Vegas 3, FF 4!
NFL games: Going down the five games we marked (wish we'd thought to mark the Detroit/Tampa discrepancy; we would've won that one!)... St. Louis blanked the Redskins, 24-0 (point them)...the Giants wiped out the Titans, 36-7 (and knocked Tennessee to the Bottom slot, H32; point them)...we were right to think the Saints were in trouble, but even we didn't expect the offensive ineptitude we saw from a Drew Brees-led offense (point us)... Although Arizona won, they only won by three, so by a hair, (point Vegas)...and the Raiders dispatched their cross-bay rivals with ease, 24-13; (point FF). ------ FINAL Score: Vegas 6, FF 6. (Like I said...wished we'd claimed that Detroit game!)
Monday, December 8, 2014
The NFC's mathematics problem...
Take a look at the NFC rankings in particular this week, and their records...
So, there are TWO teams from each of THREE divisions (meaning there will be THREE non-division winners among the six), while the best of the NFC South teams comes in at #22, with #23, #24, and #30 close behind. In fact, if Atlanta loses to the Packers tonight (as expected - they're two TD underdogs), it will be mathematically impossible for ANY team in the division to have a winning record this year.
| week 14 | Team | Div | OvRecord |
| A1 | Green Bay Packers | N-N | 9-3 |
| A2 | New England Patriots | A-E | 10-3 |
| A3 | Denver Broncos | A-W | 10-3 |
| A4 | Seattle Seahawks | N-W | 9-4 |
| B5 | Indianapolis Colts | A-S | 9-4 |
| B6 | Philadelphia Eagles | N-E | 9-4 |
| B7 | Dallas Cowboys | N-E | 9-4 |
| B8 | Arizona Cardinals | N-W | 10-3 |
| C09 | Detroit Lions | N-N | 9-4 |
| C10 | Baltimore Ravens | A-N | 8-5 |
| C11 | Pittsburgh Steelers | A-N | 8-5 |
| C12 | Cincinnati Bengals | A-N | 8-4-1 |
| D13 | San Diego Chargers | A-W | 8-5 |
| D14 | Miami Dolphins | A-E | 7-6 |
| D15 | Houston Texans | A-S | 7-6 |
| D16 | Kansas City Chiefs | A-W | 7-6 |
| E17 | Buffalo Bills | A-E | 7-6 |
| E18 | Cleveland Browns | A-N | 7-6 |
| E19 | St. Louis Rams | N-W | 6-7 |
| E20 | San Francisco 49ers | N-W | 7-6 |
| F21 | Minnesota Vikings | N-N | 6-7 |
| F22 | Atlanta Falcons | N-S | 5-7 |
| F23 | Carolina Panthers | N-S | 4-8-1 |
| F24 | New Orleans Saints | N-S | 5-8 |
| G25 | Chicago Bears | N-N | 5-8 |
| G26 | New York Giants | N-E | 4-9 |
| G27 | Washington Redskins | N-E | 3-10 |
| G28 | New York Jets | A-E | 2-11 |
| H29 | Oakland Raiders | A-W | 2-11 |
| H30 | Tampa Buccaneers | N-S | 2-11 |
| H31 | Jacksonville Jaguars | A-S | 2-11 |
| H32 | Tennessee Titans | A-S | 2-11 |
As we see it, there are SIX teams in the NFC who are head and shoulders above the rest - six teams in slots #1-9 in the FF rankings (and basically everyone else's, too), six teams with at least nine wins already, and the next team in the conference doesn't show up until Tier E, #19! With six playoff spots and six good teams, this should be easy...
EXCEPT for the GOSH-DARNED SOUTH Division!
Take another look at where the teams in each division are (we'll just show you the NFC this time...), highlighting the six leaders and the NFC South:
| week 14 | Team | Div | OvRecord |
| A1 | Green Bay Packers | N-N | 9-3 |
| A4 | Seattle Seahawks | N-W | 9-4 |
| B6 | Philadelphia Eagles | N-E | 9-4 |
| B7 | Dallas Cowboys | N-E | 9-4 |
| B8 | Arizona Cardinals | N-W | 10-3 |
| C09 | Detroit Lions | N-N | 9-4 |
| E19 | St. Louis Rams | N-W | 6-7 |
| E20 | San Francisco 49ers | N-W | 7-6 |
| F21 | Minnesota Vikings | N-N | 6-7 |
| F22 | Atlanta Falcons | N-S | 5-7 |
| F23 | Carolina Panthers | N-S | 4-8-1 |
| F24 | New Orleans Saints | N-S | 5-8 |
| G25 | Chicago Bears | N-N | 5-8 |
| G26 | New York Giants | N-E | 4-9 |
| G27 | Washington Redskins | N-E | 3-10 |
| H30 | Tampa Buccaneers | N-S | 2-11 |
Therefore, we're already guaranteed that a nine-win team will stay home in the NFC (more likely a 10 or 11 win team), while the NFC South winner not only goes to the playoffs, but HOSTS a game!
We are NOT the Big 12 - we will NOT change the rules in midstream. However, we would like to recommend a rule change starting next year...
"No team may participate in the playoffs if their record is under .500."
You can't say at .500, as much as you'd like to, because it's possible you won't have six teams out of sixteen over .500. (In fact, it's theoretically possible for the entire league to be 8-8, so under that version of the rule NO ONE goes to the playoffs. But that's not very likely.)
But under .500? Easy. "If a division champion is under .500, then its spot goes to the first wild card team; the second team moves up to the #5 slot, and a third wild card team is entered into the #6 slot."
"Furthermore, if the entire conference is putrid and there are not six teams in a particular conference with .500 records or above, then all empty slots in that conference will be filled with the next available teams from the opposite conference." (That's the way the CFL does it already! That's how British Columbia got into the playoffs instead of 8-10 Toronto!) "Hence, the #7 team in the opposing conference takes the #6 slot in the putrid conference, assuming one open slot."
And, just in case..."If somehow, there are NOT six teams with records of .500 or above available at all," (and it IS theoretically possible: what if there are five teams who go 14-2? There'll be a lot of losses to spread around in the league!), "then ALL empty slots are treated as BYES, and the opposing team gets a walkover into the next round." Wouldn't THAT be a fascinating turn of events! How serious are you about not allowing 7-9 teams into your postseason?
("Alternatively, if you want to wuss out and take the money and run instead, then on a 3/4 vote of the league owners, the previous paragraph may be waived on a one-year basis IF there are not twelve eligible teams to fill the twelve available spots. Wusses.")
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