Yes, Fremantle suffered its first defeat, oddly enough at the hands of middling Richmond and in dominating fashion, much worse than the 97-70 score indicates. Richmond scored the first five goals and never looked back, dominating the game from the opening horn. Strangely, ruckman Aaron Sandilands set another record, for positive clearances, and Richmond managed a mere 36 entries into the forward 50...yet Fremantle suffered a 27-point loss!
Saturday's scores included a narrow Carlton loss to Adelaide, 99-90, that saw the dramatic and traumatic end to a legend's career - Chris Judd, twice a Brownlow medalist as best in the league, already in an "extra" season extending his career into 2015, blew out an ACL in the first quarter that put him on a 10-12 month rehab track that made immediate retirement a no-brainer. (Recall this post to understand what a revered player Judd is.) Other games included Sydney coasting over Gold Coast 93-41 (they never bothered getting out of first gear), Geelong holding Essendon goal-less in the first half en route to winning 122-53, and Port Adelaide surprising Western 100-62.
GWS eased over Brisbane by 30, 97-67, and Hawthorn glided past St. Kilda by a score of 132-69 on Sunday, but the big game was the Kangaroo smackdown of West Coast, pulling away to win 85-75 at the end in a wind-blown game in Tasmania. The announcers referred to it as a "four or five goal wind", meaning they expected the team playing towards the wind to score that much more - and in the first half, they weren't disappointed. But to the surprise of all in the last, North Melbourne managed to score just as many as the Eagles did to hold on for a victory.
The very Commonwealth holiday Monday matchup between Collingwood and Melbourne on the Queen's (official) Birthday went the way of the Magpies (as it seemingly always does) by 25 points, 110-85, although the Demons were tied close to three-quarter time!
This coming week is the first of three "bye" weeks, with just six games each week while a third of the teams take a hiatus to lick their wounds (and if you're Gold Coast, find enough healthy players to field a team next week). Here's the line-up:
Geelong/Port Adelaide Friday night (great game potentially! I'll take Geelong...)
Fremantle/Gold Coast Saturday afternoon (on the other hand...)
Essendon/West Coast Saturday twilight (hard to imagine the Dons winning in Perth)
Sydney/North Melbourne Saturday night (should be the Swans despite NMK's last game)
GWS/Collingwood Sunday afternoon (best game of the round - flip a coin! I'll take the Pies)
Melbourne/St. Kilda Sunday twilight (should be close - I'm thinking the Saints...)
Showing posts with label Week 10. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Week 10. Show all posts
Tuesday, June 9, 2015
Thursday, June 4, 2015
Coming up on AFL week 10!
After nine weeks, with Fremantle still poised on top of the ladder, clear by two, we used the AFL Ladder Predictor to play the "what if" game...you know: What if things go the way we predict they will game by game? Who finishes where?
Well, here's what we got:
> Fremantle and Sydney should easily claim the coveted top two spots in finals, four games clear of everyone else (the only teams with fewer than seven losses, we think). Freo first, Swans second, but no undefeated season (they're not beating Hawthorn in Tasmania).
> Slots 3 through 6 are tight. We have Hawthorn 3rd, GWS 4th, Adelaide 5th, West Coast 6th, but wouldn't be surprised by any shuffling within that group. Remember, #3 and #4 get the "double chance", where they can lose game one to Freo or Sydney and still live to host next week...and if they beat them, they get a week off and host the preliminary final! Also remember that the Hawks and Eagles have (and are likely to hold onto) a huge percentage advantage.
> It's the race for the last two spots that will really be interesting! Our predictor came up with Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs hanging on for 7th and 8th places, barely ahead of Port Adelaide, North Melbourne, and Geelong, with another game back to Richmond and a big gap to Essendon, whom we don't see holding up as the season progresses.
> Can Melbourne win seven? Can the Saints win five? And who takes the Wooden Spoon: Carlton or Gold Coast? We have them both with two wins, and mere percentage points apart, but the Blues to be slightly behind the Suns with a thrashing in round 23 by the Hawks the difference.
> Will any of that come true? Remember, we're the folks who said North was going 18-4 this season: Don't trust our prognostication skills! (On the other hand, we're in the top 1-2% in the AFL Tipping Competition - picking winners - so maybe we know SOMETHING!)
Here are our picks for Round 10:
Fremantle beats Richmond by 20-30 points at home. No one beats Freo in Freo.
Adelaide over Carlton with ease; well over the 30 point spread.
The only thing keeping Sydney from beating Gold Coast by more than the 44 point spread will be pity...
I'm picking Essendon over Geelong, against the oddsmakers (not a huge risk - it's a 4 point spread).
Western would like to win in Adelaide, but Port Adelaide needs to win this game...
GWS by a ton over Brisbane, once they get into third gear...
Despite the close (3 point) spread, I'm taking West Coast over the Kangaroos by a LOT!
They've gone WLWLWLWLW so far this season; how badly do you think Hawthorn wants to break that pattern against St. Kilda? "A hundred point margin" badly?
Despite the chinks in Collingwood's armor, I'm still taking them over Melbourne this time.
Well, here's what we got:
> Fremantle and Sydney should easily claim the coveted top two spots in finals, four games clear of everyone else (the only teams with fewer than seven losses, we think). Freo first, Swans second, but no undefeated season (they're not beating Hawthorn in Tasmania).
> Slots 3 through 6 are tight. We have Hawthorn 3rd, GWS 4th, Adelaide 5th, West Coast 6th, but wouldn't be surprised by any shuffling within that group. Remember, #3 and #4 get the "double chance", where they can lose game one to Freo or Sydney and still live to host next week...and if they beat them, they get a week off and host the preliminary final! Also remember that the Hawks and Eagles have (and are likely to hold onto) a huge percentage advantage.
> It's the race for the last two spots that will really be interesting! Our predictor came up with Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs hanging on for 7th and 8th places, barely ahead of Port Adelaide, North Melbourne, and Geelong, with another game back to Richmond and a big gap to Essendon, whom we don't see holding up as the season progresses.
> Can Melbourne win seven? Can the Saints win five? And who takes the Wooden Spoon: Carlton or Gold Coast? We have them both with two wins, and mere percentage points apart, but the Blues to be slightly behind the Suns with a thrashing in round 23 by the Hawks the difference.
> Will any of that come true? Remember, we're the folks who said North was going 18-4 this season: Don't trust our prognostication skills! (On the other hand, we're in the top 1-2% in the AFL Tipping Competition - picking winners - so maybe we know SOMETHING!)
Here are our picks for Round 10:
Fremantle beats Richmond by 20-30 points at home. No one beats Freo in Freo.
Adelaide over Carlton with ease; well over the 30 point spread.
The only thing keeping Sydney from beating Gold Coast by more than the 44 point spread will be pity...
I'm picking Essendon over Geelong, against the oddsmakers (not a huge risk - it's a 4 point spread).
Western would like to win in Adelaide, but Port Adelaide needs to win this game...
GWS by a ton over Brisbane, once they get into third gear...
Despite the close (3 point) spread, I'm taking West Coast over the Kangaroos by a LOT!
They've gone WLWLWLWLW so far this season; how badly do you think Hawthorn wants to break that pattern against St. Kilda? "A hundred point margin" badly?
Despite the chinks in Collingwood's armor, I'm still taking them over Melbourne this time.
Wednesday, November 12, 2014
Ever take a look at the Massey Index?
No, it's not a money-market fund, nor a government economic indicator. It's the composite of 121 different rating systems from all across the country, in an attempt to derive the ultimate "meta-ranking", the consensus of all the polls and surveys and computer rankings and "systems" as best Kenneth Massey can do. Take a look - it's amazing! (It's also overload, if you're not ready for it!)
A few things to notice...
1. Their top four are Alabama, Mississippi St, Oregon, and TCU. (The one difference is that we have Oregon 5th, and Florida St in the top 4. Massey lists them seventh.)
2. The SEC has strength. They have the top two (it was the top four last week!), four of the top six, and six of the top 12. Within that top twelve, there are also two Pac-12 schools, two Big-12 schools, an ACC rep and one from the Big-10.
3. Marshall is 21st. (We have them in Tier E, which is #25-30.) Following them, the next highest "Group Of Five" school is Boise St, at #30.
4. Records aren't all that important. It depends who you played...and more often, whom you beat. #1 Alabama has a loss, and the three undefeated teams are #2, #7, and #21. Two-loss Auburn and Ole Miss are #5 and #6, respectively, and three-loss LSU is #12. (So, you can lose, if you're losing to top-ten SEC teams...)
5. There are teams the Massey Index loves - Louisiana Tech is all the way up in #39, whereas we have them in Tier K, equivalent to #61-66 - and there are teams that really sink in this ranking, like South Florida, whom we have in Tier P (#97-100). They come in at #111, just above Tier S Hawaii and just behind Tier R- Southern Miss.
6. #128 is not SMU! Despite being the only winless team in the entirety of FBS, the woeful Mustangs are only #127...Georgia St gets the honor of falling just below them into the cellar (and it's not really close). At least they were also a Bottom Six team (actually, we only had a Bottom Five in tier U this week) - and those five teams come in at spots #123, 124, 126, 127, and 128, with only Tier T Eastern Michigan disturbing the sweep at #125.
A few things to notice...
1. Their top four are Alabama, Mississippi St, Oregon, and TCU. (The one difference is that we have Oregon 5th, and Florida St in the top 4. Massey lists them seventh.)
2. The SEC has strength. They have the top two (it was the top four last week!), four of the top six, and six of the top 12. Within that top twelve, there are also two Pac-12 schools, two Big-12 schools, an ACC rep and one from the Big-10.
3. Marshall is 21st. (We have them in Tier E, which is #25-30.) Following them, the next highest "Group Of Five" school is Boise St, at #30.
4. Records aren't all that important. It depends who you played...and more often, whom you beat. #1 Alabama has a loss, and the three undefeated teams are #2, #7, and #21. Two-loss Auburn and Ole Miss are #5 and #6, respectively, and three-loss LSU is #12. (So, you can lose, if you're losing to top-ten SEC teams...)
5. There are teams the Massey Index loves - Louisiana Tech is all the way up in #39, whereas we have them in Tier K, equivalent to #61-66 - and there are teams that really sink in this ranking, like South Florida, whom we have in Tier P (#97-100). They come in at #111, just above Tier S Hawaii and just behind Tier R- Southern Miss.
6. #128 is not SMU! Despite being the only winless team in the entirety of FBS, the woeful Mustangs are only #127...Georgia St gets the honor of falling just below them into the cellar (and it's not really close). At least they were also a Bottom Six team (actually, we only had a Bottom Five in tier U this week) - and those five teams come in at spots #123, 124, 126, 127, and 128, with only Tier T Eastern Michigan disturbing the sweep at #125.
Sunday, November 9, 2014
We suffer from "premature tiering"!
Even with 1 1/2 games to go this weekend, we're ready to separate the NFL into eight tiers after Week Ten, although the gaps at the top are rather narrow!
Bottom Four: We're promoting the Jets after their upset win over the Steelers, which leaves us the Raiders, Jaguars, Bucs, and Titans.
Next Four Up: Four teams with moments of glory and weeks of misery - the Rams, Jets, Falcons, and Bears.
Tier Six: Four mediocre, non-descript teams on the field with interesting issues off it - the Vikings (Adrian Peterson), Redskins (RG3), Texans (JJWatt the celebrity), and the NYG (they're in New York).
Tier Five: These four teams seem to be good, and yet... they're still the Saints, Niners, Panthers, and Bills.
Tier Four: Now, we're in the upper half of the league, and these four teams could very well be in the playoffs in nine weeks - or not? Consistency! We'll just have to see what happens with the Seahawks, Chiefs, Dolphins, and Chargers.
Tier AFC North: Literally. How do you separate the Browns, Bengals, Steelers, and Ravens right now? Arguably, they may not be teams #9-12, but they belong together until someone makes a move (one direction or the other!).
Top Eight, Subdivided: The divisions here are a bit muddy, but let's see what makes sense - certainly the Cardinals and Broncos are up there, and the next two teams, Patriots and Packers, may or may not be below them. The Colts, Cowboys, and Eagles all sit very snugly up there next to them, and if we have to choose a number eight, the 7-2 Lions would probably be there. But these are the eight best in the league right now; interestingly, five are from the NFC and three from the AFC (but seven of our next eight are, too!).
Bottom Four: We're promoting the Jets after their upset win over the Steelers, which leaves us the Raiders, Jaguars, Bucs, and Titans.
Next Four Up: Four teams with moments of glory and weeks of misery - the Rams, Jets, Falcons, and Bears.
Tier Six: Four mediocre, non-descript teams on the field with interesting issues off it - the Vikings (Adrian Peterson), Redskins (RG3), Texans (JJWatt the celebrity), and the NYG (they're in New York).
Tier Five: These four teams seem to be good, and yet... they're still the Saints, Niners, Panthers, and Bills.
Tier Four: Now, we're in the upper half of the league, and these four teams could very well be in the playoffs in nine weeks - or not? Consistency! We'll just have to see what happens with the Seahawks, Chiefs, Dolphins, and Chargers.
Tier AFC North: Literally. How do you separate the Browns, Bengals, Steelers, and Ravens right now? Arguably, they may not be teams #9-12, but they belong together until someone makes a move (one direction or the other!).
Top Eight, Subdivided: The divisions here are a bit muddy, but let's see what makes sense - certainly the Cardinals and Broncos are up there, and the next two teams, Patriots and Packers, may or may not be below them. The Colts, Cowboys, and Eagles all sit very snugly up there next to them, and if we have to choose a number eight, the 7-2 Lions would probably be there. But these are the eight best in the league right now; interestingly, five are from the NFC and three from the AFC (but seven of our next eight are, too!).
Reviewing our Week 10 predictions!
Well, if you've been with us this week, you know we've been firing on all cylinders in Week 10! Here's our results...
Successes: Bowling Green over Akron...NIU over Ball St...Temple closer than a TD to Memphis...Baylor destroying Oklahoma...Duke big over Syracuse...Army over UConn...TCU over Kansas St...LSU took Alabama to overtime....Toronto over Ottawa late...Hamilton wins against Montreal (half-credit)..,Cardinals big over the Rams. We'd like to be able to claim Minnesota's win over Iowa, but we didn't, so we can't.
Missteps: We said UL-Monroe would win against Appalachian St; the Warhawks gave up a late FG to lose 31-29...We were surprised Old Dominion beat FIU 38-35, but they had to score ten points in the last 65 seconds to do it...Ohio St beat Michigan St, on the road...Arizona St sure impressed us, handling Notre Dame...Didn't think Saskatchewan still had it in them to beat Edmonton...and the half-credit Hamilton was because we did NOT think the Tiger-Cats would win by enough to win the division (8). They won by fifteen. (Yes, that's more than eight.)
(And there's still the chance that Chicago could stay close to the Packers tonight.) So, right now, we are 10.5 - 5.5, so we will take that!
Successes: Bowling Green over Akron...NIU over Ball St...Temple closer than a TD to Memphis...Baylor destroying Oklahoma...Duke big over Syracuse...Army over UConn...TCU over Kansas St...LSU took Alabama to overtime....Toronto over Ottawa late...Hamilton wins against Montreal (half-credit)..,Cardinals big over the Rams. We'd like to be able to claim Minnesota's win over Iowa, but we didn't, so we can't.
Missteps: We said UL-Monroe would win against Appalachian St; the Warhawks gave up a late FG to lose 31-29...We were surprised Old Dominion beat FIU 38-35, but they had to score ten points in the last 65 seconds to do it...Ohio St beat Michigan St, on the road...Arizona St sure impressed us, handling Notre Dame...Didn't think Saskatchewan still had it in them to beat Edmonton...and the half-credit Hamilton was because we did NOT think the Tiger-Cats would win by enough to win the division (8). They won by fifteen. (Yes, that's more than eight.)
(And there's still the chance that Chicago could stay close to the Packers tonight.) So, right now, we are 10.5 - 5.5, so we will take that!
Time for the playoffs, eh?
Well, Hamilton won the pivotal game with Montreal, 29-15, to secure not only a playoff spot but also the Eastern Division title at 9-9. (Hence, the three team round-robin went to all three home teams, as we expected!) With Saskatchewan's (surprise) win over Edmonton, 24-17, the Grey Cup playoffs are set:
Next Sunday, the BC Lions go to Montreal to play the Alouettes; the winner gets to play the East Division champion Hamilton Tiger-Cats. All three of these teams finished the season 9-9.
Meanwhile, in the West, there'll be a rematch of yesterday's last game of the regular CFL season, Saskatchewan @ Edmonton. Of course, the winner will travel to play the regular season champs, the Calgary Stampeders.
The winners of the conference title games in Calgary and Hamilton play on November 30th in BC Place for the 102nd Grey Cup. Incidentally, the Lions have a chance to become the fourth consecutive team to play in their home stadium for the title!
Next Sunday, the BC Lions go to Montreal to play the Alouettes; the winner gets to play the East Division champion Hamilton Tiger-Cats. All three of these teams finished the season 9-9.
Meanwhile, in the West, there'll be a rematch of yesterday's last game of the regular CFL season, Saskatchewan @ Edmonton. Of course, the winner will travel to play the regular season champs, the Calgary Stampeders.
The winners of the conference title games in Calgary and Hamilton play on November 30th in BC Place for the 102nd Grey Cup. Incidentally, the Lions have a chance to become the fourth consecutive team to play in their home stadium for the title!
So much for that 33-game winning streak!
The defending FCS champion North Dakota St Bison didn't just lose yesterday, they were almost shut out by division rival Northern Iowa, 23-3.
The Bison's 33 game winning streak, encompassing three national championships, was the longest in FCS history. But against the 19th ranked Panthers, they were outgained 306-175, doubled up in first downs, 16-8, went one for fourteen in 3rd down conversions, rushed 28 times and gained only 43 yards, and (with the exception of a turnover on the UNI 12, when they scored their FG) had the following starting field positions, ALL in their own territory: the 25, the 3, the 10, 37, 34, 20, 25, 42, 18, the 8, and the 20.
On the far end of the spectrum, the two 0-9 teams we follow went to 0-10 yesterday: Rhode Island fell to 8-1 New Hampshire 41-14, while Savannah St lost 51-21 to visiting Howard University. Those streaks now extend to 14 and 19, respectively.
In the Big Sky conference, Eastern Washington beat traditional champ Montana 36-28 on the red field in Cheney to remain in control of the conference title, although four teams share the lead in the loss column: EWU, Northern Arizona, Montana St, and surprising Idaho St, winners against Cal Poly SLO yesterday at home to get to 7-3. In 2013, they went 3-9, the three wins coming against Northern Colorado and two D2 teams; they finished the season on a six-game losing streak and having failed nine of their last ten excursions. Now, they're two games from a playoff berth!
The Bison's 33 game winning streak, encompassing three national championships, was the longest in FCS history. But against the 19th ranked Panthers, they were outgained 306-175, doubled up in first downs, 16-8, went one for fourteen in 3rd down conversions, rushed 28 times and gained only 43 yards, and (with the exception of a turnover on the UNI 12, when they scored their FG) had the following starting field positions, ALL in their own territory: the 25, the 3, the 10, 37, 34, 20, 25, 42, 18, the 8, and the 20.
On the far end of the spectrum, the two 0-9 teams we follow went to 0-10 yesterday: Rhode Island fell to 8-1 New Hampshire 41-14, while Savannah St lost 51-21 to visiting Howard University. Those streaks now extend to 14 and 19, respectively.
In the Big Sky conference, Eastern Washington beat traditional champ Montana 36-28 on the red field in Cheney to remain in control of the conference title, although four teams share the lead in the loss column: EWU, Northern Arizona, Montana St, and surprising Idaho St, winners against Cal Poly SLO yesterday at home to get to 7-3. In 2013, they went 3-9, the three wins coming against Northern Colorado and two D2 teams; they finished the season on a six-game losing streak and having failed nine of their last ten excursions. Now, they're two games from a playoff berth!
HE DROPPED THE BALL? What was he THINKING?
Missed this last night (watching the Alabama/LSU classic at the time!), but talk about slitting your own throat! Watch this Utah mistake last night! Instead of going up on the Ducks 14-0, Utah gave Oregon a tie game, which they eventually lost after being within three in the fourth quarter. How would THIS have changed the landscape?
...and now, the nitty gritty details!
You'll notice, when you look at the new tiers for Week 10 of the NCAA FBS season, that we've started doing some more subdividing of the teams beyond the six-member tiers we'd cut them into previously. Treat the plus/minus markings the same way you would school grades (we ARE old school teachers, after all!) - a plus indicates that we think they're slightly better than the rest of the tier; a minus that they're slightly worse.
Also, you'll notice that Tier R is under investigation for steroid use, as it's grown abnormally large in a short time frame. Frankly, we didn't think those teams could be easily separated, so we didn't.
Later today, we'll post outright predictions for next week's games...and then we'll see how they compare with the Vegas betting lines. As those of you who were following our posts yesterday are aware, our tier arrangement forecast games better than either Vegas OR our own personal instincts did this week for the college ranks. (The NFL has achieved such parity that it's a crapshoot each week; if we try this with the pros, it'll be a complete lark!) Regardless of the outcome - which we forbid you to use for betting purposes! - it should be interesting to follow!
As for specific details of the new arrangement:
1. We've chosen our Final Four - at least, for the moment! TCU and Alabama are clearly the most accomplished of the one-loss teams, with strong victories yesterday and elsewhere, along with the most tenuous of losses on their records (last second losses on the home field of top teams). They sit along side undefeated and proven Mississippi St and Florida St as the four best...for now.
2. Baylor, Oregon, and Ohio St are next in line. Again, they've shown their strength consistently, and particularly yesterday, and should be the next in if one of the four above falters.
3. If we had to rank right now, we'd go Bulldogs first, then the Crimson Tide, Seminoles, Horned Frogs, Ducks, Bears, and Buckeyes seventh.
4. Arizona St, Duke, and LSU are for real. While it's hard to picture them in the playoff at this point (especially the three-loss Bayou Bengals), they have shown doubters wrong throughout the season.
5. While they put up a battle yesterday after the outcome was decided, SMU is clearly #128 in the land. Which is such a shame, after all the work June Jones and others did to bring them back from literal extinction and the dregs where they've returned to. But as the only winless team in the FBS - and without anything even close to a win on their resume - we're forced to applaud effort at this stage, knowing they've no chance for competitiveness.
Also, you'll notice that Tier R is under investigation for steroid use, as it's grown abnormally large in a short time frame. Frankly, we didn't think those teams could be easily separated, so we didn't.
Later today, we'll post outright predictions for next week's games...and then we'll see how they compare with the Vegas betting lines. As those of you who were following our posts yesterday are aware, our tier arrangement forecast games better than either Vegas OR our own personal instincts did this week for the college ranks. (The NFL has achieved such parity that it's a crapshoot each week; if we try this with the pros, it'll be a complete lark!) Regardless of the outcome - which we forbid you to use for betting purposes! - it should be interesting to follow!
As for specific details of the new arrangement:
1. We've chosen our Final Four - at least, for the moment! TCU and Alabama are clearly the most accomplished of the one-loss teams, with strong victories yesterday and elsewhere, along with the most tenuous of losses on their records (last second losses on the home field of top teams). They sit along side undefeated and proven Mississippi St and Florida St as the four best...for now.
2. Baylor, Oregon, and Ohio St are next in line. Again, they've shown their strength consistently, and particularly yesterday, and should be the next in if one of the four above falters.
3. If we had to rank right now, we'd go Bulldogs first, then the Crimson Tide, Seminoles, Horned Frogs, Ducks, Bears, and Buckeyes seventh.
4. Arizona St, Duke, and LSU are for real. While it's hard to picture them in the playoff at this point (especially the three-loss Bayou Bengals), they have shown doubters wrong throughout the season.
5. While they put up a battle yesterday after the outcome was decided, SMU is clearly #128 in the land. Which is such a shame, after all the work June Jones and others did to bring them back from literal extinction and the dregs where they've returned to. But as the only winless team in the FBS - and without anything even close to a win on their resume - we're forced to applaud effort at this stage, knowing they've no chance for competitiveness.
First, the new FBS tiers after week 10...
Tier A: Alabama, Florida St, Mississippi St, TCU.
Tier A-: Baylor, Oregon.
Tier B+: Ohio St.
Tier B: Arizona St, Auburn, Nebraska, Notre Dame, Ole Miss.
Tier C+: Michigan St.
Tier C: Arizona, Georgia, Kansas St, LSU.
Tier C-: USC.
Tier D+: Duke.
Tier D: Georgia Tech, Missouri, UCLA, Utah, Wisconsin.
Tier E: Clemson, Colorado St, Louisville, Marshall, Minnesota, Oklahoma.
Tier F: East Carolina, Maryland, Miami-FL, Texas A&M, West Virginia.
Tier F-: Florida.
Tier G: California, Kentucky, Oklahoma St, South Carolina.
Tier G-: Boise St, Utah St.
Tier H: Air Force, Arkansas, Iowa, Penn St, Stanford.
Tier H-: Washington.
Tier I: Boston College, Cincinnati, Northern Illinois, Rutgers, Tennessee, Texas.
Tier J: Memphis, Nevada, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Oregon St, Pitt.
Tier K: Georgia Southern, Louisiana Tech, Temple, Virginia, Virginia Tech.
Tier K-: Bowling Green.
Tier L: BYU, Central Florida, Michigan, Navy, Toledo, UL-Lafayette.
Tier M: Arkansas St, Central Michigan, Houston, Rice, UTEP, Western Michigan.
Tier N+: Washington St.
Tier N: Illinois, Northwestern, San Diego St, Syracuse, Texas Tech.
Tier O: Fresno St, Ohio, Texas St, Wyoming.
Tier O-: Alabama-Birmingham, Middle Tennessee.
Tier P: Colorado, Indiana, Purdue, South Florida.
Tier P-: San Jose St, UL-Monroe.
Tier Q: Florida Atlantic, Kansas, South Alabama, Tulane, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest.
Tier R+: Appalachian St.
Tier R (double-sized): Akron, Army, Ball St, Buffalo, Florida International, Iowa St, North Texas, Old Dominion.
Tier R-: Southern Miss.
Tier S+: New Mexico.
Tier S: Hawaii, UNLV, UTSA, Western Kentucky.
Tier T: Eastern Michigan, Miami-OH, Troy, Tulsa, U Conn, U Mass.
Tier U: Georgia St, Idaho, Kent St, New Mexico St.
Tier U-: SMU.
Tier A-: Baylor, Oregon.
Tier B+: Ohio St.
Tier B: Arizona St, Auburn, Nebraska, Notre Dame, Ole Miss.
Tier C+: Michigan St.
Tier C: Arizona, Georgia, Kansas St, LSU.
Tier C-: USC.
Tier D+: Duke.
Tier D: Georgia Tech, Missouri, UCLA, Utah, Wisconsin.
Tier E: Clemson, Colorado St, Louisville, Marshall, Minnesota, Oklahoma.
Tier F: East Carolina, Maryland, Miami-FL, Texas A&M, West Virginia.
Tier F-: Florida.
Tier G: California, Kentucky, Oklahoma St, South Carolina.
Tier G-: Boise St, Utah St.
Tier H: Air Force, Arkansas, Iowa, Penn St, Stanford.
Tier H-: Washington.
Tier I: Boston College, Cincinnati, Northern Illinois, Rutgers, Tennessee, Texas.
Tier J: Memphis, Nevada, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Oregon St, Pitt.
Tier K: Georgia Southern, Louisiana Tech, Temple, Virginia, Virginia Tech.
Tier K-: Bowling Green.
Tier L: BYU, Central Florida, Michigan, Navy, Toledo, UL-Lafayette.
Tier M: Arkansas St, Central Michigan, Houston, Rice, UTEP, Western Michigan.
Tier N+: Washington St.
Tier N: Illinois, Northwestern, San Diego St, Syracuse, Texas Tech.
Tier O: Fresno St, Ohio, Texas St, Wyoming.
Tier O-: Alabama-Birmingham, Middle Tennessee.
Tier P: Colorado, Indiana, Purdue, South Florida.
Tier P-: San Jose St, UL-Monroe.
Tier Q: Florida Atlantic, Kansas, South Alabama, Tulane, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest.
Tier R+: Appalachian St.
Tier R (double-sized): Akron, Army, Ball St, Buffalo, Florida International, Iowa St, North Texas, Old Dominion.
Tier R-: Southern Miss.
Tier S+: New Mexico.
Tier S: Hawaii, UNLV, UTSA, Western Kentucky.
Tier T: Eastern Michigan, Miami-OH, Troy, Tulsa, U Conn, U Mass.
Tier U: Georgia St, Idaho, Kent St, New Mexico St.
Tier U-: SMU.
Saturday, November 8, 2014
What an insane afternoon of football!!!!
Auburn, how do you fumble on a spike play? Two fumbles in the last four hikes; the first recovery may be questionable, but the second...wow, what a devastating way to lose for their center.
Here's what a bottom-feeder "come from behind victory" looks like: Appalachian St had the ball inside the twenty under two minutes, down by a point, looking to defeat UL-Monroe...and threw three straight incompletions. Made the FG, luckily.
Northwestern, and coach Pat Fitzgerald: you've got balls. Down 10-9, having scored a TD with three seconds to go in the game, they went for two and the win, not the XP and overtime. Just because it failed doesn't make it a bad decision.
Arizona St had two pick-sixes against Notre Dame, the last one ugly - Notre Dame's Corey Robinson looks away before catching the ball, and then bats the ball upwards perfectly for Lloyd Carrington to pick and six it. Under coach Todd Graham, ASU is 7-6 against ranked opponents; before that, they were 5-41!
We're not sure we're all that impressed with Ole Miss' performance against lower-level Presbyterian today: yes, seven of their drives resulted in TDs, but the others were two missed FGs, two missed fourth downs, one interception, and one which ended the game. Eh...
Michigan @ Northwestern, by the way, hit halftime tied at zero. Only three games in the FBS have had scoreless first halves this season...and two of them were at Northwestern. (The other was against Northern Illinois.) The two Wildcat scoring drives were 14 plays for 74 yards, and 19 plays for 95 yards. By the way, the 19 play drive was the field goal drive!
Texas A&M was a 23 point underdog on the road, so it was going to take some breaks to beat Auburn today. They got some late - the new definition of "buttfumble", discussed above - but also early, where they scored on a 60-yard pass on the fourth play, recovered an Auburn fumble on the fifth play, and scored on another long pass on the eighth play. 14-0. They ALSO got a break in the middle: on a long Auburn FG attempt to end the first half, a stray hand in the middle happened to hit the flight of the ball, an A&M player happened to retrieve it on the bounce, and he made it to the end zone (again, last play of the half: he had to) to switch from 28-20 to a 35-17 lead. PS: Texas A&M won by three.
The two major teams from the state of GEORGIA were insanely efficient today! For the Georgia Bulldogs, the only drives in which they did NOT score a touchdown were at the end of each half - meaning they never turned the ball over, never punted, and converted every set of downs, in winning 63-31 over Kentucky. Meanwhile, the Georgia Tech Yellowjackets went to North Carolina St and possessed the ball a mere eight times: six touchdown drives, one fumble, and one 12-play drive that ended the game. To compare, somehow the Wolfpack had eleven drives, because two of those ended in touchdowns for GT instead in the 56-23 victory.
An interesting quote from the ESPN.com coverage of Penn St's victory over Indiana 13-7: "(Bill) Belton's fifth score of the year came on a 92-yard run and was the longest rushing touchdown by a single player in Penn St history." [our emphasis]
While you ponder what that means, we read much farther down the article: "Back in 1973, the Nittany Lions scored on a 92-yard play, but that was by two players and included a fumble." OOOOOhhhhhhh....
Somehow, Baylor had not beaten a top 25 team on the road in 38 attempts, or since 1991. After Oklahoma took a 14-3 into the second quarter, the Bears scored the last 45 points to walk away with the game, 48-14.
A poignant moment: OU's quarterback Trevor Knight went out of the game in the fourth with a scary injury, undiagnosed publicly last we heard. While he was being tended to, several Baylor players (including QB Bryce Petty) went to Knight's brother Connor and prayed with him on the field.
Here's what a bottom-feeder "come from behind victory" looks like: Appalachian St had the ball inside the twenty under two minutes, down by a point, looking to defeat UL-Monroe...and threw three straight incompletions. Made the FG, luckily.
Northwestern, and coach Pat Fitzgerald: you've got balls. Down 10-9, having scored a TD with three seconds to go in the game, they went for two and the win, not the XP and overtime. Just because it failed doesn't make it a bad decision.
Arizona St had two pick-sixes against Notre Dame, the last one ugly - Notre Dame's Corey Robinson looks away before catching the ball, and then bats the ball upwards perfectly for Lloyd Carrington to pick and six it. Under coach Todd Graham, ASU is 7-6 against ranked opponents; before that, they were 5-41!
We're not sure we're all that impressed with Ole Miss' performance against lower-level Presbyterian today: yes, seven of their drives resulted in TDs, but the others were two missed FGs, two missed fourth downs, one interception, and one which ended the game. Eh...
Michigan @ Northwestern, by the way, hit halftime tied at zero. Only three games in the FBS have had scoreless first halves this season...and two of them were at Northwestern. (The other was against Northern Illinois.) The two Wildcat scoring drives were 14 plays for 74 yards, and 19 plays for 95 yards. By the way, the 19 play drive was the field goal drive!
Texas A&M was a 23 point underdog on the road, so it was going to take some breaks to beat Auburn today. They got some late - the new definition of "buttfumble", discussed above - but also early, where they scored on a 60-yard pass on the fourth play, recovered an Auburn fumble on the fifth play, and scored on another long pass on the eighth play. 14-0. They ALSO got a break in the middle: on a long Auburn FG attempt to end the first half, a stray hand in the middle happened to hit the flight of the ball, an A&M player happened to retrieve it on the bounce, and he made it to the end zone (again, last play of the half: he had to) to switch from 28-20 to a 35-17 lead. PS: Texas A&M won by three.
The two major teams from the state of GEORGIA were insanely efficient today! For the Georgia Bulldogs, the only drives in which they did NOT score a touchdown were at the end of each half - meaning they never turned the ball over, never punted, and converted every set of downs, in winning 63-31 over Kentucky. Meanwhile, the Georgia Tech Yellowjackets went to North Carolina St and possessed the ball a mere eight times: six touchdown drives, one fumble, and one 12-play drive that ended the game. To compare, somehow the Wolfpack had eleven drives, because two of those ended in touchdowns for GT instead in the 56-23 victory.
An interesting quote from the ESPN.com coverage of Penn St's victory over Indiana 13-7: "(Bill) Belton's fifth score of the year came on a 92-yard run and was the longest rushing touchdown by a single player in Penn St history." [our emphasis]
While you ponder what that means, we read much farther down the article: "Back in 1973, the Nittany Lions scored on a 92-yard play, but that was by two players and included a fumble." OOOOOhhhhhhh....
Somehow, Baylor had not beaten a top 25 team on the road in 38 attempts, or since 1991. After Oklahoma took a 14-3 into the second quarter, the Bears scored the last 45 points to walk away with the game, 48-14.
A poignant moment: OU's quarterback Trevor Knight went out of the game in the fourth with a scary injury, undiagnosed publicly last we heard. While he was being tended to, several Baylor players (including QB Bryce Petty) went to Knight's brother Connor and prayed with him on the field.
As the early games progress
..we're seeing a bunch of missing defenses across the east, as teams run wild in second quarters in particular.
In Minnesota, the Hawkeyes drove for the first touchdown, and the Gophers rattled off five more against the, before halftime. At Oklahoma, the Baylor Bears threw five TDs at the Sooners in twenty minutes of the second quarter into the third. Georgia scored the first time it touched the ball - one of two kick returns for TDs so far - and hasn't failed to score yet, up 55-24 on Kentucky.
And so forth... Gonna be a great day!...
In Minnesota, the Hawkeyes drove for the first touchdown, and the Gophers rattled off five more against the, before halftime. At Oklahoma, the Baylor Bears threw five TDs at the Sooners in twenty minutes of the second quarter into the third. Georgia scored the first time it touched the ball - one of two kick returns for TDs so far - and hasn't failed to score yet, up 55-24 on Kentucky.
And so forth... Gonna be a great day!...
Ah, it's GOOD to be the king...
As Saturday morning progresses and we get ready for the weekly onslaught of college football (glorious!), we pause to check the morning betting lines - only to find that the public sees the games the way WE do, not as Vegas does!
Seemingly EVERY point spread that's shifted has done so in the direction our Following Football tiers would dictate! Increased spreads for LaTech, Duke, Oregon St, Boise St, and UCLA, for example, match our own predictions; a reversal in the Fresno/San Jose nightcap (the Dogs are now a home favorite) and a reduction inMichigan's gap also testify to our sentiments. The glaring difference, Auburn's predicted margin over A&M, is justified by the QB issues in Aggieville.
Add to that the Memphis/Temple game last night, which we called even rather than a TD spread, hit halftime 10-10, was tied at 13 one second from the death, and was won by a FG for Memphis on the last play...and we feel pretty cocky this morning!
Seemingly EVERY point spread that's shifted has done so in the direction our Following Football tiers would dictate! Increased spreads for LaTech, Duke, Oregon St, Boise St, and UCLA, for example, match our own predictions; a reversal in the Fresno/San Jose nightcap (the Dogs are now a home favorite) and a reduction inMichigan's gap also testify to our sentiments. The glaring difference, Auburn's predicted margin over A&M, is justified by the QB issues in Aggieville.
Add to that the Memphis/Temple game last night, which we called even rather than a TD spread, hit halftime 10-10, was tied at 13 one second from the death, and was won by a FG for Memphis on the last play...and we feel pretty cocky this morning!
Thursday, November 6, 2014
And as for the professionals...
The Canadian Football League wraps up its regular season Friday and Saturday with four games that will settle the remaining playoff questions - Ottawa @ Toronto (a typical Redblack game: Ottawa will give Toronto all it can handle before losing to the Argos late); Calgary @ British Columbia (the game hinges on how seriously the Stampeders take the game - if it's a chance to rest the starters, the Lions win); Montreal @ Hamilton (the BIG GAME of the weekend, this will determine the Eastern champ - we think Hamilton wins, but by less than the eight points they need to dethrone Montreal as division champs); and Edmonton @ Saskatchewan (the Roughriders are fading fast - take the Eskimos to win big).
In the NFL, tonight's Cincy/Cleveland game will be fascinating - the Bengals deserve to be a TD fave at home, but they're so strange...Sunday's KC @ Buffalo could go either way, but they're two teams that both have potential to bust some chops this season...Same with Miami @ Detroit...We are fascinated by the Dallas/Jacksonville tilt in London - Tony Romo has to fly across the Atlantic with a bad back? Good luck, man... San Francisco @ New Orleans feels like an elimination game; loser has NO chance at the playoffs (except NO plays in the pathetic (this year) NFC South...Can Oakland keep Denver close, like they have Seattle and others? Possible...We don't see St. Louis staying within 7 points of Arizona in any universe, with any quarterback, this season...Similarly, there's no way that Chicago can stay within a touchdown of Green Bay unless the weather makes the game unplayable...Carolina @ Philly? Wow. Do you have less faith in the fading Panthers, or in the legendary Mark Sanchez? Admittedly, he looked good in relief last week, and reports are he's ten times more comfortable with Chip Kelly and Philly than Rex Ryan and New York...but if Sanchez is your guy, you're NOT Super Bowl bound. I'm jus' sayin'...
In the NFL, tonight's Cincy/Cleveland game will be fascinating - the Bengals deserve to be a TD fave at home, but they're so strange...Sunday's KC @ Buffalo could go either way, but they're two teams that both have potential to bust some chops this season...Same with Miami @ Detroit...We are fascinated by the Dallas/Jacksonville tilt in London - Tony Romo has to fly across the Atlantic with a bad back? Good luck, man... San Francisco @ New Orleans feels like an elimination game; loser has NO chance at the playoffs (except NO plays in the pathetic (this year) NFC South...Can Oakland keep Denver close, like they have Seattle and others? Possible...We don't see St. Louis staying within 7 points of Arizona in any universe, with any quarterback, this season...Similarly, there's no way that Chicago can stay within a touchdown of Green Bay unless the weather makes the game unplayable...Carolina @ Philly? Wow. Do you have less faith in the fading Panthers, or in the legendary Mark Sanchez? Admittedly, he looked good in relief last week, and reports are he's ten times more comfortable with Chip Kelly and Philly than Rex Ryan and New York...but if Sanchez is your guy, you're NOT Super Bowl bound. I'm jus' sayin'...
Week 10 is upon us!
Starting the week 2-0 with our erudite flip-a-coin predictions (Bowling Green's "upset" of Akron Tuesday and NIU covering easily against Ball St; wish I could claim Kent St losing as a pick, but it wasn't going out on a limb!) gives us confidence as we proceed into the weekend's games!
As a reminder, we do NOT provide betting spreads in reference to actually placing money as bets on games. We DO NOT recommend betting on any sports activities. The information here is meant to be informational, recreational, and for the sheer heck of it.
We only have one solid pick for the lead-up games: Memphis should be favored by LESS than a TD at Temple. We have them just one tier apart, but Vegas credits this as a ten-point gap (the seven points plus accounting for three more with the Owls as the home team). It should be a close game; we would call it even.
So, let's look at Saturday's games! For the record, our actual "betting choices" will be underlined. (Just because we comment on a game doesn't mean we think the spread is wrong...)
***One of the things we've learned in grouping teams is that while the spread between individual tiers is generally between 1-2 points per tier, there are occasions when the far ends (tiers A and U) will "spread out more"; that is, the bell curve will stretch out to increase the gap between, say, teams in tiers T and U. Certainly, by mathematics, Tulsa is only one tier above SMU, and playing at home means the Golden Hurricane should get 4-5 points. The spread is twelve, and we agree. SMU is not just bad: they're horrific. Considering the great job June Jones had done with the recently defunct program, it's amazing how far off the map they've fallen. But when a 1-7 Tulsa team is a 12-point favorite to you, Mustangs...well, we're sorry.
***It's interesting to look at the places where the line differs from our tiers, and wonder who's wrong. In the MAC, it appears we did very well; with Iowa @ Minnesota and Baylor @ Oklahoma, though, it's hard not to wonder. The Hawkeyes are favored by two on the road against a team from their own tier. And frankly, we don't have the guts to disagree - the Gophers haven't looked as good recently, and they've faded in previous years. But we do like Baylor to cover and even WIN at Oklahoma, who is not the national favorite they were made out to be in August. (So...call it a compromise?)
***Similarly down south, Georgia is a ten point favorite AT Kentucky, just one tier below them...but it's easy to picture the Dawgs wanting to beat someone down after the shellacking Florida gave them last week. Not a bad point spread, even if Kentucky never gets any love. And Duke also suffers from poor image, even as they hold the keys to another division championship - they're only a 3 1/2 point fave at Syracuse. We like Duke to win this by more than that.
***Poor Texas A&M - three TD underdogs at Auburn Saturday. What high hopes they had! Now, with their QB situation so unsettled, it's hard to see them being in this game at all.
***Troy gets a TD against fellow Bottom Sixer Georgia St? Interesting...As noted above, the regular rules don't apply at the ends. But Appalachian St as a favorite against UL-Monroe? No chance. Take Monroe to win. We have that as a three-tier gap the other way. And Army should be favored over U Conn, not the other way around, especially AT Army! Finally, in the lower ranks, we see Florida International beating Old Dominion, even on the road; they're 4 1/2 point dogs in Vegas' eyes.
***The faith in Michigan fascinates us. Northwestern may indeed be fading, but to trust the Wolverines on the road right now - or ANYWHERE right now - is an act of true faith.
***The six big games this weekend are pretty easy to spot: Kansas St @ TCU (we like the Frogs), Ohio St @ Michigan St (we like the home team, no matter which school would have hosted this one), Oregon @ Utah (9 1/2 points is a big line, but we're not going against it), Alabama @ LSU (we have a hard time giving the Tide a TD here...aw, shoot. Go ahead and take LSU and the six points.), Notre Dame @ Arizona St (a really interesting line - Sun Devils by 1 1/2. We're inclined to take the Irish instead. They know how to win big games.), and the aforementioned Baylor @ Oklahoma (Bears over Sooners). They should ALL be great - keep the clicker handy!
As a reminder, we do NOT provide betting spreads in reference to actually placing money as bets on games. We DO NOT recommend betting on any sports activities. The information here is meant to be informational, recreational, and for the sheer heck of it.
We only have one solid pick for the lead-up games: Memphis should be favored by LESS than a TD at Temple. We have them just one tier apart, but Vegas credits this as a ten-point gap (the seven points plus accounting for three more with the Owls as the home team). It should be a close game; we would call it even.
So, let's look at Saturday's games! For the record, our actual "betting choices" will be underlined. (Just because we comment on a game doesn't mean we think the spread is wrong...)
***One of the things we've learned in grouping teams is that while the spread between individual tiers is generally between 1-2 points per tier, there are occasions when the far ends (tiers A and U) will "spread out more"; that is, the bell curve will stretch out to increase the gap between, say, teams in tiers T and U. Certainly, by mathematics, Tulsa is only one tier above SMU, and playing at home means the Golden Hurricane should get 4-5 points. The spread is twelve, and we agree. SMU is not just bad: they're horrific. Considering the great job June Jones had done with the recently defunct program, it's amazing how far off the map they've fallen. But when a 1-7 Tulsa team is a 12-point favorite to you, Mustangs...well, we're sorry.
***It's interesting to look at the places where the line differs from our tiers, and wonder who's wrong. In the MAC, it appears we did very well; with Iowa @ Minnesota and Baylor @ Oklahoma, though, it's hard not to wonder. The Hawkeyes are favored by two on the road against a team from their own tier. And frankly, we don't have the guts to disagree - the Gophers haven't looked as good recently, and they've faded in previous years. But we do like Baylor to cover and even WIN at Oklahoma, who is not the national favorite they were made out to be in August. (So...call it a compromise?)
***Similarly down south, Georgia is a ten point favorite AT Kentucky, just one tier below them...but it's easy to picture the Dawgs wanting to beat someone down after the shellacking Florida gave them last week. Not a bad point spread, even if Kentucky never gets any love. And Duke also suffers from poor image, even as they hold the keys to another division championship - they're only a 3 1/2 point fave at Syracuse. We like Duke to win this by more than that.
***Poor Texas A&M - three TD underdogs at Auburn Saturday. What high hopes they had! Now, with their QB situation so unsettled, it's hard to see them being in this game at all.
***Troy gets a TD against fellow Bottom Sixer Georgia St? Interesting...As noted above, the regular rules don't apply at the ends. But Appalachian St as a favorite against UL-Monroe? No chance. Take Monroe to win. We have that as a three-tier gap the other way. And Army should be favored over U Conn, not the other way around, especially AT Army! Finally, in the lower ranks, we see Florida International beating Old Dominion, even on the road; they're 4 1/2 point dogs in Vegas' eyes.
***The faith in Michigan fascinates us. Northwestern may indeed be fading, but to trust the Wolverines on the road right now - or ANYWHERE right now - is an act of true faith.
***The six big games this weekend are pretty easy to spot: Kansas St @ TCU (we like the Frogs), Ohio St @ Michigan St (we like the home team, no matter which school would have hosted this one), Oregon @ Utah (9 1/2 points is a big line, but we're not going against it), Alabama @ LSU (we have a hard time giving the Tide a TD here...aw, shoot. Go ahead and take LSU and the six points.), Notre Dame @ Arizona St (a really interesting line - Sun Devils by 1 1/2. We're inclined to take the Irish instead. They know how to win big games.), and the aforementioned Baylor @ Oklahoma (Bears over Sooners). They should ALL be great - keep the clicker handy!
Tuesday, November 4, 2014
Looking at the early games this week...
It's already Week 10, and with our usual November "MAC-tion" upon us during the week, we need to touch on the weeknight games now!
Tuesday: Starting this very moment are two Mid-American games, Bowling Green at Akron (unlike Vegas, we like the Falcons!) and Toledo at Kent St (hard to imagine Kent St winning tonight).
Wednesday: Two more MAC games, this time Buffalo at Ohio (the Bobcats get the three point home field advantage, which we think is about right) and Northern Illinois traveling to Ball St (the Huskies really should be favored by ten or more, not three. Take NIU).
Thursday: Two major games - one in the ACC, Clemson at Wake Forest (favored by 23, and we agree), and one on the NFL Network, with the Cleveland Browns visiting the Cincinnati Bengals (despite the balance in the division, we think Cincy's TD favorite's spread is at least right).
Friday: Four games to consider - two below the 49th parallel (Memphis at Temple, favored by a TD, and Utah St at Wyoming, also favored by a TD), and two above (Ottawa at Toronto, which should be a great fight for the REDBLACKS but a hard fought win by Toronto; and Calgary at BC, which will depend entirely on who the Stampeders choose to rest).
Tuesday: Starting this very moment are two Mid-American games, Bowling Green at Akron (unlike Vegas, we like the Falcons!) and Toledo at Kent St (hard to imagine Kent St winning tonight).
Wednesday: Two more MAC games, this time Buffalo at Ohio (the Bobcats get the three point home field advantage, which we think is about right) and Northern Illinois traveling to Ball St (the Huskies really should be favored by ten or more, not three. Take NIU).
Thursday: Two major games - one in the ACC, Clemson at Wake Forest (favored by 23, and we agree), and one on the NFL Network, with the Cleveland Browns visiting the Cincinnati Bengals (despite the balance in the division, we think Cincy's TD favorite's spread is at least right).
Friday: Four games to consider - two below the 49th parallel (Memphis at Temple, favored by a TD, and Utah St at Wyoming, also favored by a TD), and two above (Ottawa at Toronto, which should be a great fight for the REDBLACKS but a hard fought win by Toronto; and Calgary at BC, which will depend entirely on who the Stampeders choose to rest).
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