Update: North of the Equator

>>> What's the over/under on Johnny Manziel? I mean, in terms of him completely falling off the cliff of sanity, dying, whatever.

>>>  So, were the Rams and Eagles really the teams most in need of QBs? Denver made a good pick in Paxton Lynch - he'll play well right away. Whether Dallas' pick of OSU's Ezekiel Elliot at the #4 slot pays off or not, it's definitely a Jerry Jones pick! But at least it's not a Greg Hardy reach...

>>> Who's "rebuilding", and who's making their push for 2016? You let us know what you think!

>>> What Tennessee and Tampa are trying to do to protect their young prodigy quarterbacks is promising on both fronts. Whether it bears fruit remains to be seen...

>>> Baltimore claims they pulled the plug on drafting Jeremiah Tunsil because of the "supposedly hacked" social media post with a bong. Right or wrong move?

 

Terminal Thursday Thoughts

I've talked about this all week, and this is my last scheduled post of the cycle, so let me start and end with the reminder: if you're reading this blog and want it to continue more or less as I'm doing...

COMMENT ON THIS POST THIS WEEK!

The issue, of course, is that as much as I love doing this blog, as much as crunching numbers to quantify and align teams at their supposed performance levels is fun for me to do...the time and effort it takes to do the thorough job for all of the teams I feel need to be covered each week is more than I have available to me, at least when you combine that with my regular (read: "paying") job, caring for my children, and the deteriorating condition of my health (which has zero to do with this blog). 

In the past, I've had people from Idaho, California, Nevada, North Carolina and Washington who've contacted me about what they've read, and I've known through that kind of anecdotal evidence that we were reaching people, that what we were doing was valued by someone out there. It's not like we need a thousand regular readers, but if we don't have any, which is what the lack of comment feedback suggests, we're just "spitting into the wind", as they say.

If that's not the case, we need you to tell us so.

CONTACT us through the comment section on this or either of the other two posts over the last two days (our regular UPS and DOWNS column, and our PROPHECIES in PHOOTBALL overview of the weekend's procedings (which starts today with the Giants and "Redskins" - an article on line today suggesting the life expectancy of the latter name is close to becoming a finite, definable number). 

Here's a thought we were having ourselves that 538 picked up this morning - there seem to be a bunch of "good teams" in the NFL who have started their season 0-2, usually an indicator that the playoffs are out of reach for most. Consider this list of teams: Seattle, Baltimore, Indianapolis, Houston, Detroit, NJ Giants, and Philadelphia. History suggests that ONLY ONE of those seven teams will make it into the post-season! (I've not "forgotten" New Orleans and Chicago. That was intentional.) The chart below in the 538 article shows that of the 7-8 teams over the last two years to go 0-2, only one made the playoffs each year.To make the postseason, most of the time it'll take at least ten wins - and you only have fourteen games left to do so it. A tall order, given that something's not going well to begin with (or you wouldn't be 0-2!). 

(By the way, my thought is that the best bet for a playoff team out of this group is the winner of the Indy/Houston race, as Jax and the Titans are unlikely to reach more than eight wins apiece.)

The Eagles And Ravens Are Screwed
By REUBEN FISCHER-BAUM and CHADWICK MATLIN

We’re two weeks into the NFL season, and nine teams are 0-2. But these winless squads are not created equal: The Seattle Seahawks, last season’s NFC champion, are clearly in better shape than the terrible Chicago Bears. Still, two games is an eighth of the season, and two early losses can wipe out even the best teams’ margin of error for the rest of the season.

So, how bad is it to start 0-2? And which of these nine teams have already screwed up their playoff chances?

QUICK! Before Sunday's games start!

It occurs that we told you the consensus choices other pundits as far as the upcoming NFL season goes, but you've not gotten the benefit of the wisdom of the proven leader in prognostication - Following Football!

So, here are our division projections: 

AFC)

EAST: 1) New England. 2) Miami. Close 3) Buffalo. Distant 4) New York Jets.
NORTH: 1) Baltimore by two full games. 2) Pittsburgh. 3) Cincinnati. 4) Vacant. 5) Cleveland.
SOUTH: 1) Indianapolis. 2, closer than you think) Houston. 3, farther than they'd like) Jax. 4) Tennessee.
WEST: All four teams will have at least six wins AND losses... 1) Denver. 2) San Diego. 3) Kansas City. 4) Oakland, all within four games.

NFC)

EAST: 1) Philadelphia IF Sam Bradford is one of the 10-12 best QBs in the league; otherwise Dallas. 2) figure it out... 3) New York Giants. 4 with a stone) Washington.
NORTH: 1) Green Bay. 2) Minnesota. 3) Detroit.
SOUTH: 1) Vacant. 2) Carolina, reluctantly. 3) New Orleans and Atlanta (tie). 4) Tampa Bay.
WEST: 1) Seattle. 2) Arizona. 3) St. Louis. 4) San Francisco.

4) Chicago. (Not a typo.)

PLAYOFFS: AFC seed 3 Baltimore def. seed 6 Houston...seed 5 Pittsburgh def. seed 4 Denver. NFC seed 3 Philadelphia def. seed 6 Arizona...seed 5 Dallas def. seed 4 Carolina.

AFC seed 1 New England def. seed 5 Pittsburgh...seed 3 Baltimore def. seed 2 Indianapolis. NFC seed 1 Green Bay def. seed 5 Dallas...seed 2 Seattle def. seed 3 Philadelphia.

AFC Championship: New England def. Baltimore...NFC Championship: Green Bay def. Seattle.

SUPER BOWL: Green Bay and Cal Berkeley grad Aaron Rodgers def. New England and Bay Area product Tom Brady in Super Bowl 50 in Santa Clara, CA.

WEEKEND WESULTS - a day late!

Sometimes the first day of the school year slaps you in the face... and you don't get your Monday blog post out on time! (And sometimes you don't get it out on time and there's no good excuse at all!)

SO, here's your very-late-Monday recap of the weekend's action!

IN THE AFL this weekend, Friday night saw some unexpected clarity come to the top of the ladder when Hawthorn was upset by Port Adelaide 108-86, in Adelaide, in a game that's GOT to make the Power supporters wonder where THAT effort had been all season! Along with West Coast's fourth quarter annihilation of the gallant Western Bulldogs, which ended 162-85 but which was much closer until the last nine goals went the Eagles' way, the two top positions were solidified and Domain Stadium in Perth is going to get a LOT of use in September, hosting BOTH Fremantle and West Coast's games. The road to the first Saturday in October runs through Australia's southwest coast.

Of the other results, Fremantle's loss to the Kangaroos may be the most significant - combined with Adelaide's 131-44 rout of Brisbane, the final eight are fairly close to set. Sydney overran GWS 133-44 to re-take fourth spot, and with fairly easy games to finish the season should be able to maintain that lead over Western, Richmond (147-56 over pathetic Collingwood), and North Melbourne. Only Adelaide is still not quite secure, as a loss to West Coast next week could set up a winner take all game in the final round with Geelong, whose surprising draw with St. Kilda left them a game and a half out but in a position to climb past the Crows with two final wins.

To the Canadian Footballers, Toronto came back from the brink again to beat Ottawa 30-24; Calgary held off winless Saskatchewan 34-31; Montreal won over BC 23-13, and once again, Hamilton overwhelmed Edmonton 49-20. All nine teams have their first bye behind them now, so with eight games each across the board, the three teams who've managed six wins are Hamilton and Toronto in the East, and the defenders Calgary in the West, with Edmonton at 5-3 right behind them. Second-year Ottawa manages a 4-4 record, already doubling last year's win total even with two come-from ahead losses, while Montreal, Winnipeg, and the BC Lions sit in striking distance at 3-5. Saskatchewan, one of the favorites coming into the season, somehow is left still seeking win number one, at 0-8, six games back with ten to play.With two-thirds of the teams making the playoffs, they're only three games out of a playoff position, but still...there's a lot to do.

As for the NFL, there were some very educational games this weekend! We learned that the Redskins are in more trouble than we thought, if they keep getting RG3 hurt like they have. We learned that both Johnny Manziel and EJ Manuel have quarterbacking futures in Cleveland and Buffalo, respectively. We learned Ryan Tannehill may actually deserve the money Miami gave him. We learned Peyton Manning may have nerve issues in his fingertips that are going to continue to cause him cold/wet weather issues like (apparently) they did last winter in the playoffs for Denver. We learned that the Jets aren't as bad off as we'd feared, that the Chiefs have some hope, that the Seahawks are NOT going to show their cards any time soon, We learned that thanks to the Philadelphia Eagles, both Sam Bradford and Tim Tebow have second life in the NFL. We learned that the QB future of the league is bright, thanks to strong showings from youngsters like Jamies Winston in Tampa, Marcus Mariota in Tennessee, and most especially Teddy Bridgewater in Minnesota, who has erased the word "future" from his title. But most of all, we learned that what we love about football is watching when 303-pound Mike Purcell intercepts a pass for the 49ers and runs a third of the length of the field back for a fat guy touchdown! FAT GUY TD's ARE OUR RAISON d'EXISTENCE!

UPS and DOWNS for August Week 3!

Welcome back to another edition of UPS and DOWNS, friends! Without further ado...

UP - SALIVATION LEVELS for AMERICAN FOOTBALL! It's amazing what some meaningless pre-season, week one games with actual NFL uniforms pounding into each other can do to the American, football-starved public! Not a single meaningful occurrence this weekend on the gridiron in the US, and yet tastebuds are prepared, appetites are salivating, and nowhere more than in Philadelphia, where they've been watching Chip Kelly's shenanigans for months now without anything to actually base an OPINION on! So, with four quarters under their belts against Indianapolis, they finally have barroom conversation - most of which will be based around Tim Tebow.

DOWN - SANTA CLAUS. Which reminds us: How BAD of a guy can Santa Claus be if a Philly crowd can give Tim Tebow a standing O before he plays a single down for them, and BOO Santa Claus? Whose opinion do I need to adjust? My opinion of Tebow, or Santa?

UP - THE WILD WEST! If we have to name two surprise teams in the Australian Footy League this year (in an "up" context!), it would have to be the two "Wests" - the West Coast Eagles, based in Perth, on the (you guessed it) west coast of Australia (currently sitting in second place when we and most others predicted they would yet again fail to reach the top eight), and the Western Bulldogs, who are 'western' only in the sense that the University of Michigan is the "champion of the west", as their fight song says. It was a different time. Western IS rather 'western' as the greater Melbourne area goes, and as the state of Victoria goes, which is where the Western (previously Footscray) Bulldogs are located. But Western's sitting fourth after a string of impressive victories, including the most thrilling 76-2 quarter and a half you'll ever watch en route to a 98 point win Sunday. It wasn't that Melbourne was bad, either - it's just that Western's players were moving SO FAST that the poor Demons had no shot at keeping up. From the Melbourne Demon point of view, it was the least embarrassing 76-2 run imaginable. If that makes sense. This weekend, Western travels TO the West Coast in a showdown of fast moving offenses and stellar defenses, and it's very possible that they'll meet again down the road in September during finals...even the Grand Final, perhaps!

DOWN - THE ESSENDON DONS.  Finally, finally, Essendon "parted ways" with their 'head coach' James Hird today - three days after yet another listless defeat (and that's complimentary to lists, who wouldn't want to be associated with it), this time to Adelaide 171-59, who ran around them like they were "witches' hats" (traffic cones, Yanks). Quite simply, the players stopped caring weeks ago. They'd play hard for a while, and it would be competitive for a quarter, maybe two. But once the other team started playing and passed them, that was it. And that's what happened last weekend - again - the Dons actually led by a goal after one, 4.3.27 to 3.3.21 (that reads, 4 goals, 3 behinds, totaling 27 for Essendon; 3 goals, 3 behinds, totaling 21 for Adelade). Which means the LAST three quarters went 24 goals to 4, Adelaide's way, and 150 points to 32. And remember, Adelaide's a middle of the pack team. Heaven forbid they met up with Hawthorn or West Coast right now. Hird's departure comes only a day or two after he defiantly told reporters he was still the right man for the job, and in today's press conference he was "dutifully stepping away for the benefit of the players",

If you've followed Hird's insipid handling of the season, you'll get a great laugh out of these quotes from the Tuesday presser, which I suspect...well, read this first:

"I'm not disappointed [that] the club's let me down," Hird said. 

"The reason for this decision is to enable the players and the supporters some space to perform and be a normal football club again.

"I didn't know it would come to this [but] I felt that the club needed space. There was a question mark there and that was enough to say, let's try something else. 

"These players have to be allowed to play. It's not just about me resigning or moving on, the industry has to let them play and give them some space. 

"It's not their fault. I think the industry should give them a break.

"My hesitation in leaving this club at this time is because I believe the players still need strong guidance and care, which I hope to continue to provide from a distance." 

That's right, friends - James Hird is the martyr here, heroically stepping aside so that the players can be "allowed to play". My favorite part, personally, is that he's "not disappointed the club's let ME down"...as if it's THEIR fault you couldn't be bothered to coach this year when that team so DESPERATELY needed some real guidance and coaching, maybe more than any team EVER in the league's history following the worst team doping scandal in sports history. 

Not to pre-empt PROPHECIES in tomorrow's Following Football, but I suspect Essendon's going to play a whole lot better the last three games this season...

An update on the NFL minicamps...

John Clayton is as knowledgeable about the inner workings of the 32 NFL teams as any human alive (although there are times when I suspect Peter King is close, and Adam Schefter does a great job, too). Many reporters are more experienced with one or two specific teams, and if that's what you need you go to the specialists - but as a generalist myself, Clayton's my man. Here is a great summary of the OTA's off ESPN.com from the man himself, including good news for Marcus Mariota and Jamies Winston fans.

And then to the specialists: here is where you'll find thirty-two "offseason grade" reports from thirty-two reporters dedicated to those teams - personally, I'd ignore the "grades", which are a click-bait device to begin with.

Well, they've done it. Now, we'll see...

The NFL has decided to change the extra point rule in order to add some excitement to the play following a touchdown.

In the last five years, the success rate for an XP kicked from the 2 (essentially a 19-yard FG) has been literally 99% - one out of one hundred missed or blocked. It's hard to argue for the two point conversion when you're risking a sure point - and the success rate last season on the few attempts (it was tried on less than once every twenty opportunities) was just 47.5% last season. Unless you needed two to tie at the end, why bother?

So the thinking is three-fold: 
1) Make the one-point harder, thereby more interesting to watch.
2) Increase the interest in the two-pointer without skewing the balance too much the other way.
3) Give the defense a reason to give a bleep about defending it.

Here's how they did that - 
1) The line of scrimmage for a kick for one point will be moved back to the 15. This makes it a 32-33 yard kick, which last year kickers in the NFL converted 92.5% of the time. Still relatively straightforward, but not a given any more.
2) The two-pointer is still going to be from the 2 yard line. (So the Eagles will have to decide ahead of time if they want to go for two! No more of Chip Kelly's bizarre line formations!) Do the math: if you have a 92% chance of one point, or a 47% chance of two, the multiplication slightly favors going for two now. Slightly. Don't go nuts; this isn't the XFL!
3) Extra points are now "live", which I don't believe means that the clock moves, but it definitely means that the defense can return a blocked kick or a fumble or interception for a two-point score!

For me, it looks like a win-win situation. Add interest, keep the kickers involved (and in fact feature them more), make it a more important strategical part of the game, yet don't change the fundamental nature of the game (for example, changing the goal-post width)...and just in case they've missed something terrible, the rule will be reviewed next off-season for reform or removal if it doesn't work.

I'm all for it!

Welcome back to the Tim Tebow saga!

Welcome back to the Tim Tebow saga! Chip Kelly, in his infinite wisdom, has decided that he as a genius can make use of the inimitable talents of the Heisman winner, a proven leader but not a proven passer or NFL-caliber quarterback, although he does have an indescribable presence on the field that seems to lead to wins that you don't see possible otherwise. Personally, I'd take a shot with Tebow - as a person, he's a winner, and he brings that to a locker room. But you have to be willing to take on the media circus that comes with him, not that it's his fault. 

The general consensus, as Peter King of SI's Monday Morning Quarterback explains well in this piece, is that if it's going to work anywhere, it'll be in Philadelphia, with a Chip Kelly offense where Tebow is NOT the key piece, but the offense fits his style of play.

And, if the reports are true that he's been working on his throwing motion non-stop since his last gig with the Jets? Kelly may have a gold mine in his hand!

Now...about the NFL trade period...wow!

We don't even know where to start. 

St. Louis and the Philadelphia Kellys trading starting quarterbacks?

New Orleans having a fire sale?

San Francisco losing all these great players (and coaches!) and then picking up a ton of new ones as well?

The entire AFC East getting TONS better? Especially Buffalo - that's my new co-favorite (because until New England falls, I'm not betting against them...).

Seattle getting Jimmy Graham? Dallas losing DeMarco Murray? Miami signing Ndamukong Suh? (I spelled that without looking it up! Proud of me!)

And what will the Eagles look like when Chip gets done?

I think the best advice I've heard, and many wise pundits have repeated it many times, is this: It's only March 16, people. There's plenty of time - there are many more dominoes to fall - the draft is still coming. 

When the dust settles and summer arrives...then we can make our evaluations.

(But it's going to be fun to see what those teams we've named in particular look like then!)

Here is the latest update from Rotoworld and NBC Sports as to where each of the free agents in the NFL has signed ...

More NFL trade talk...

And the hits keep coming... Ryan Fitzpatrick to the Jets...Is there a positive outcome for either team in the Nick Foles to the Rams/Sam Bradford to Philly trade?...Jimmy Graham to Seattle from the Saints makes sense from both sides (New Orleans is WAY over the cap), but it apparently isn't making Graham a happy man!...Finally, Peter King has his usual great insight into the amazing changes throughout the NFL landscape over the last week in his Monday Wednesday Morning Quarterback column, including some interesting notes about the probable number one pick in the draft, Jamies Winston.

NFL ROUND-UP!

In the league that never sleeps, there's been lots of shuffling since we last looked in at the National Football League. Let's take a peek:

*Will the last one out of San Francisco's locker room please turn out the lights? Holy catfish, has that team become a mess all of a sudden!

*Philadelphia is definitely charting its own course - getting rid of DeSean and LeSean, two very talented players who DON'T fit the "Chip Kelly way", apparently. And while Stephen A Smith is known for saying ridiculous and outrageous things, and is being taken to task for his latest...I'm not so sure he's wrong. Those guys don't fit the way you do things, Mr. Kelly...but Riley Cooper does? Weird.

*Jeff Legwold has a great roundup of the major transactions and signings on ESPN today, including the departure of the Stupendous Stomper himself, Ndamukong Suh, to the Miami Dolphins for a contract said to be worth $114 million - only the fifth non-QB ever given a nine-figure contract. Notably (in my opinion), one of those other four was also a defensive lineman with an anger management problem, Albert Haynesworth, who was definitively not worth the contract. (The others include notables like JJ Watt, who so far is worth every penny.)

*Here's a notable non-trade: Jay Cutler is your 2015 Chicago Bears quarterback! Now...to make it work...

*While this is actually connected to the subscription part of ESPN ("Insider"), the visible-to-everyone section is a good tracker in itself to help you keep track of where every NFL free agent ends up.

The Philadelphia Kellys are rounding into shape...

Good piece today by Don Banks of SI.com on the Eagles/Bills trade that sent LeSean McCoy packing to Buffalo... more than ever, Chip Kelly plans on making the Eagles over in his own image, and anyone that doesn't fit with the scheme will be replaced, no matter how special a talent they might be (and make NO mistake: McCoy is a GREAT player). 

Going into the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs,...

...the tiers have been updated below. For obvious reasons, Carolina has made a significant jump upwards, although we resisted shoehorning them into the top eight - they really aren't a top eight team, although given their body of work they're probably not a top twelve team, either. (Seriously...their five game win streak includes three NFC South teams, and games against Cleveland with Manziel at QB and Arizona with the Lord knows who at QB. Don't get too impressed just yet.)

Curiously, all eight divisions are represented in the round of eight! The only division winner to lose (Pittsburgh) lost to a team within its own division. 

Here are the rankings at the eighth pole, as they say on the horse track...

FOLLOWING FOOTBALL - weekly rankings
	NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE						(including playoffs)
FF rank	Team	Div	week 17	ConfRc	DvRec	Home	Season	WC rnd
A1	Seattle Seahawks	N-W	A1	10-2	5-1	7-1	12-4	A1
A2	New England Patriots	A-E	A2	9-3	4-2	7-1	12-4	A2
A3	Green Bay Packers	N-N	A3	9-3	5-1	8-0	12-4	A3
A4	Denver Broncos	A-W	A4	10-2	6-0	8-0	12-4	A4
A5	Dallas Cowboys	N-E	A5	8-4	4-2	4-4	13-4	A5
B6	Indianapolis Colts	A-S	B8	9-3	6-0	6-2	12-5	B6
B7	Baltimore Ravens	A-N	C10	6-6	3-3	6-2	11-6	B7
B8	Detroit Lions	N-N	B6	9-3	5-1	7-1	11-6	B8
C09	Pittsburgh Steelers	A-N	B7	9-3	4-2	6-2	11-6	C09
C10	Cincinnati Bengals	A-N	C11	7-5	3-3	5-2-1	10-6-1	C10
C11	Carolina Panthers	N-S	D19	6-6	4-2	4-4	8-8-1	C11
C12	Arizona Cardinals	N-W	B9	8-4	3-3	7-1	11-6	C12
D13	Philadelphia Eagles	N-E	C12	6-6	4-2	6-2	10-6	D13
D14	San Diego Chargers	A-W	D13	6-6	2-4	5-3	9-7	D14
D15	Buffalo Bills	A-E	D14	5-7	4-2	5-3	9-7	D15
D16	Kansas City Chiefs	A-W	D15	6-6	3-3	6-2	9-7	D16
D17	Miami Dolphins	A-E	D16	7-5	3-3	4-4	8-8	D17
D18	San Francisco 49ers	N-W	D17	7-5	2-4	4-4	8-8	D18
D19	Houston Texans	A-S	D18	8-4	4-2	5-3	9-7	D19
E20	St. Louis Rams	N-W	E20	4-8	2-4	3-5	6-10	E20
E21	Cleveland Browns	A-N	E21	4-8	2-4	4-4	7-9	E21
E22	New Orleans Saints	N-S	E22	6-6	3-3	3-5	7-9	E22
E23	New York Giants	N-E	E23	4-8	2-4	3-5	6-10	E23
E24	Minnesota Vikings	N-N	E24	6-6	1-5	5-3	7-9	E24
F25	Atlanta Falcons	N-S	F25	6-6	5-1	3-5	6-10	F25
G26	Chicago Bears	N-N	G26	4-8	1-5	2-6	5-11	G26
G27	Washington Redskins	N-E	G27	2-10	2-4	3-5	4-12	G27
G28	New York Jets	A-E	G28	4-8	1-5	2-6	4-12	G28
G29	Oakland Raiders	A-W	G29	2-10	1-5	3-5	3-13	G29
H30	Jacksonville Jaguars	A-S	H30	2-10	1-5	3-5	3-13	H30
H31	Tampa Buccaneers	N-S	H31	1-11	0-6	0-8	2-14	H31
H32	Tennessee Titans	A-S	H32	2-10	1-5	1-7	2-14	H32

...as with the colleges, a few thoughts:

...The two conferences "homogenized" somewhat as the end of the season arrived - at one point, there was a huge clump of AFC teams in the middle of the rankings, with all of the NFC teams either above (six or seven of them) or below (...yeah...). But as you can probably see, while there is still a block of NFC teams (from #22-27), that clump of AFC in the middle was broken up by the Rams moving up to #20 and the 49ers dropping to #18 in particular.

...the NFC South spread out some as well, with Carolina's advancement and Tampa's continued fall: their "final" rankings were #11*, #22, #25, and #31.

...in fact, the overall total ranking of the AFC South (teams are ranked as #6, 19, 30, and 32) is just about as bad - they total 87, while the NFC South totals 89 (both subject to change as the playoffs advance). 

...at one point, the defending champion Seahawks were ranked below 14th (week 10), only to finish the season as the #1 team going into the knockout round. Good luck to Carolina and whoever else has to go into Seattle...

...conversely, Arizona was ranked #1 as recently as week 11, and Philadelphia and San Diego each spent time in the A tier during the middle of the season. Both of the latter missed the playoffs entirely, and the Cardinals might as well have.

...Again, like the colleges, we will start with this set of tiers when the 2015 season kicks off (modified with the results of the last seven playoff games still to come, of course!). We won't bother with numbers until enough new evidence is in, but there's no point adjusting for free agency and draft picks and "good offseasons" until we see them in actual game action (and rarely does pre-season help that - the teams who go 4-0 in preseason and 4-12 in the regular season are legion.)

Hey! NFL stat geeks!

And here's a fun little article, also from Five-Thirty-Eight, on the NFL playoffs, the atrocity of the NFC South, the unlikelihood of Philadelphia not making the playoffs, the unlikelihood of Atlanta making the playoffs, the amazing powers of Odelle Beckham, Jr., and some cool graphs and charts! Enjoy!

SO...who will make the NFL playoffs?

With two weeks left in the season, we're still only down to about twenty teams who can still be one of the twelve playoff teams! Eleven AFC teams are still eligible for the tournament, although three spots were clinched yesterday (division champs Denver, Indianapolis, and New England). Meanwhile, six teams fight for five spots in the NFC, plus the one team who will eventually "win" the NFC Southern division out of three candidates still vying for the spot.

Projecting the likely winners of the Week 16 & 17 games from the Following Football tiers, we have predictions of those playoff teams:

NFC: East - Philadelphia (win at Wash, win at NYG) = 11-5-0
                       Dallas (loss v. Indy, win at Wash) = 11-5-0
          North - Green Bay (win at Tampa, win v. Det) = 12-4-0
                           Detroit (win at Chic, loss at Green Bay) = 11-5-0
          South - New Orleans (loss tonight at Chic, win v Atl, win at TB) = 7-9-0
                         Carolina (win v. Cleveland, loss at Atlanta) = 6-9-1
                          Atlanta (loss at New Orleans, win v Carolina) = 6-10-0
          West - Arizona (win v Seattle, win at SF) = 13-3-0
                         Seattle (loss at Ariz, win v. StL) = 11-5-0

NFC PLAYOFF TEAMS: 
   #1 seed = Arizona (13-3)
   #2 seed = Green Bay (12-4)
   #3 seed = Philadelphia (11-5) [better div record than Dallas]
   #4 seed = New Orleans (7-9)
   #5 seed = Detroit (11-5) [better conf. record than Dallas or Seattle]
   #6 seed = Dallas (11-5) [def. Seattle head-to-head]
...and Seattle's out of the playoffs...

AFC: East - *New England (win at NYJ, win v. Buff) = 13-3-0
                        Miami (win v. Minn, win v. NYJ) = 9-7-0
                        Buffalo (win at Oak, loss at NE) = 9-7-0
          North - Pittsburgh (win v KC, win v. Cinc) = 11-5-0
                           Baltimore (loss at Hous, win v Clev) = 10-6-0
                           Cincinnati (loss v Denv, loss at Pitt) = 9-6-1
                           Cleveland (loss at Carol, loss at Balt) = 7-9-0
          South - *Indianapolis (win at Dal, win at Ten) = 12-4-0
                           Houston (win v Balt, win v. Jax) = 9-7-0
         West - *Denver (win at Cinc, win v Oak) = 13-3-0
                        Kansas City (loss at Pitt, win v SD) = 9-7-0
                        San Diego (loss at SF, loss at KC) = 8-8-0

AFC PLAYOFF TEAMS:
  #1 seed = New England (13-3) [def. Denver head to head]
  #2 seed = Denver (13-3)
  #3 seed = Indianapolis (12-4)
  #4 seed = Pittsburgh (11-5)
  #5 seed = Baltimore (10-6)
  #6 seed = Cincinnati (9-6-1)
...alas, no up-n-comers (Miami, Buffalo, Houston, KC all 9-7; that tie keeps the Bengals in the playoffs after all!)...

Our forecast beyond that? Anything goes. "We predict that one of those twelve teams will win the Super Bowl!" That's the most we'll commit to in a one-game knockout tournament where the #6 seed has won as often as the #1 seeds have!

Here's our updated NFL "FOLLOWING FOOTBALL" tiered ranks for Week 15!

wk 15 Team Div OvRecord ConfRc DvRec A1 New England Patriots* A-E 11-3 8-2 3-1 A2 Denver Broncos* A-W 11-3 9-1 5-0 A3 Green Bay Packers N-N 10-4 7-3 4-1 A4 Seattle Seahawks N-W 10-4 7-2 3-1 B5 Dallas Cowboys N-E 10-4 7-4 3-2 B6 Arizona Cardinals N-W 11-3 8-2 3-1 B7 Indianapolis Colts* A-S 10-4 8-3 5-0 B8 Philadelphia Eagles N-E 9-5 5-5 3-1 C09 Detroit Lions N-N 10-4 8-2 4-0 C10 Cincinnati Bengals A-N 9-4-1 6-4 3-2 C11 Pittsburgh Steelers A-N 9-5 7-3 3-2 C12 Baltimore Ravens A-N 9-5 5-5 2-3 D13 San Diego Chargers A-W 8-6 6-5 2-3 D14 Kansas City Chiefs A-W 8-6 6-4 2-3 D15 Buffalo Bills A-E 8-6 5-6 3-2 D16 Houston Texans A-S 7-7 6-4 2-2 E17 Miami Dolphins A-E 7-7 6-5 3-2 E18 St. Louis Rams N-W 6-8 4-6 2-3 E19 Cleveland Browns A-N 7-7 4-7 2-3 E20 San Francisco 49ers N-W 7-7 6-5 1-4 F21 Minnesota Vikings N-N 6-8 5-6 0-5 F22 Atlanta Falcons N-S 5-9 5-5 4-0 F23 Carolina Panthers N-S 5-8-1 5-6 3-2 F24 New Orleans Saints N-S 5-8 4-5 2-2 G25 New York Giants N-E 5-9 3-7 2-3 G26 Chicago Bears N-N 5-8 4-5 1-3 G27 Washington Redskins N-E 3-11 1-9 1-3 G28 New York Jets A-E 3-11 3-7 0-4 H29 Oakland Raiders A-W 2-12 1-9 1-4 H30 Tampa Buccaneers N-S 2-12 1-9 0-5 H31 Jacksonville Jaguars A-S 2-12 1-9 0-3 H32 Tennessee Titans A-S 2-12 2-8 1-4

Some notes - with the Packers' loss to the Bills yesterday, the Pats move up to the number 1 spot, with Denver right behind. Dallas and Arizona moved up partly on their Week 15 games but also on the overall body of work, verified by an impressive win this weekend. 

Because of the NFC South debacle (the winner is guaranteed a sub-.500 record), there are six NFC teams in spots 3 through 9 fighting for FIVE playoff spots. No need to beat that dead horse, but it seems likely that Philly and Dallas are fighting for ONE spot at this point. 

Also, three teams clinched divisions in the AFC, indicated with asterisks above. That leaves three spots, and the three nine-win teams in the North division all have the inside track on those, with six other teams (in tier-ranks 13-19) within conceivable distance of overtaking them.

Finally, the Jets did themselves no favors by beating the Titans in the first 16-11 game in NFL history (that just seems weird!) - now, they're a "game out" of the lead for the first draft pick, and with four teams "ahead" of them at the moment, it seems more unlikely that the quarterback they need will still be there at pick five.