>>> What's the over/under on Johnny Manziel? I mean, in terms of him completely falling off the cliff of sanity, dying, whatever.
>>> So, were the Rams and Eagles really the teams most in need of QBs? Denver made a good pick in Paxton Lynch - he'll play well right away. Whether Dallas' pick of OSU's Ezekiel Elliot at the #4 slot pays off or not, it's definitely a Jerry Jones pick! But at least it's not a Greg Hardy reach...
>>> Who's "rebuilding", and who's making their push for 2016? You let us know what you think!
>>> What Tennessee and Tampa are trying to do to protect their young prodigy quarterbacks is promising on both fronts. Whether it bears fruit remains to be seen...
>>> Baltimore claims they pulled the plug on drafting Jeremiah Tunsil because of the "supposedly hacked" social media post with a bong. Right or wrong move?
Showing posts with label Ravens. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ravens. Show all posts
Wednesday, May 4, 2016
Tuesday, November 3, 2015
UPS and DOWNS for Tuesday, the first week of November!
As the college football playoff committee puts out its rankings tonight, and Following Football has done the same over the last two days for all 285 pro and college teams we cover, it's a great time to look at which teams have had a surprisingly UP season, and which ones have been startlingly DOWN...
WHO'S UP? Well, what about the Cincinnati Bengals and the Carolina Panthers? Everyone who saw both of them at 7-0 starting November raise your hands. OK, we've identified the liars in the room...
WHO'S DOWN? It's not hard to find struggling teams in the NFL, but a couple we saw in the playoffs last year are the Baltimore Ravens and the Detroit Lions. Tough schedule, sure - close games, yes - but somewhere in there, you've got to stand up and win a couple of those games.
WHO'S UP? Three "usual suspects": the Green Bay Packers, the Denver Broncos, and the New England Patriots. Remarkable to watch Peyton be Peyton again, but Rodgers and Brady have left no doubt that they're still at the top of their games. And all three have defenses to get them the ball.
WHO'S DOWN? Again, who do you expect? The Tennessee Titans, of course, who just fired another coach...the Cleveland Browns, who continue to put up with Manziel for some odd reason...the Chicago Bears weren't expected to do much, and still haven't lived up to expectations... and even with their shiny new QB, the Tampa Bay Bucs are barely better than they were at this point last year.
WHO'S UP? There are signs of life in Oakland...in Minnesota...in Atlanta...in St. Louis. Parity is always the stated goal of the NFL admin, but what you really want is the feeling as a fan base that any year could be THE YEAR!
WHO'S DOWN? When you've got a fan base like the Sasktachewan RoughRiders do, arguably the best in the Canadian Football League, and you were expecting to be contending for the Grey Cup, when you were right on the heels of the eventual champion Calgary Stampeders all season...and you go a miserable two and fifteen heading into the final week of the season...yeah, the green is blue this year. The Riders were actually eliminated from playoff contention six weeks ago...in a league where 2/3 of the teams make the playoffs. THAT'S impressive in its badness.
WHO'S UP? When you went 2-16 last year in your first campaign as an expansion franchise, you can be forgiven if a successful second season in your mind was, say, six wins. Looking at the two expansion clubs in the AFL (Gold Coast and GWS), they went through about that - two bad years, then two mediocre years. But instead, the Ottawa RedBlacks are one win away from an Eastern Division championship in their second year - already guaranteed a winning record at 11-6, all they need to do is win OR not lose by more than five points at home on Saturday to the Hamilton Ti-Cats...not the first choice of opponents in this situation, especially since it's the Ti-Cats who will earn the title if you fail. But just to have this opportunity in your sophomore campaign! CONGRATULATIONS, OTTAWA!
WHO'S DOWN? My attention span for Canadian football once the American season hit full steam in late September. It was frustrating, because I knew I didn't have the time or energy to stay abreast of every single thing in the NFL, NCAA, and the CFL - and as the footy season was reaching its climax down under, it was the mid-to-late weeks of the Canadian season that got the short shrift. To our readers, I apologize. But of course, all we can do is our best, and we'll continue to do that for you.
WHO'S UP? At the moment, we have our top four "theoretically playoff bound" FBS teams (in the humble opinion of Following Football ACNC!) - LSU, Clemson, Alabama, Notre Dame. To most observers we've heard, the first two names are almost indisputable at the moment (things change quickly in college football, though!), and the other two could be replaced by any of close to a dozen teams: TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Michigan St, Ohio St, Florida, Stanford, Iowa, Utah, even Memphis or Toledo. (Probably not Idaho, though.)
WHO'S DOWN? Which teams thought they'd be in the mix at this point and aren't? There are some obvious candidates: Georgia, Auburn, Oregon, USC, Tennessee, There are some others whose fan bases might have thought it feasible - but that's another story.
WHO'S UP? There are some remarkable positive stories this fall of teams who weren't expected to fare as successfully as they have, as there are every year. That doesn't make them any less worth applauding: Florida (new head coach Jim McElwain has them sitting at #7 on the Following Football ranking at the moment; finished the 2014 season at #34), Michigan (Harbaugh took a team who finished at #67 last year, bottom half of the FBS, and has them at #14 right now), Houston (up from #69 last year to an undefeated 8-0 at #21 and looking at a possible New Year's bowl); and Temple (similar story arc, moving from #79 to current #22, having just taken Notre Dame to the brink). There are lower eschelon stories as well: Southern Miss moved from tier S up to its current tier L; Tulsa has bounded from tier T up to tier N this year. Vanderbilt from tier R up to its present place in tier I; and Northwestern, who beat Stanford to start the year, Duke for its only legitimate defeat (ahem, Miami), and moved from last year's tier M and #78 all the way into tier G and position #35.
WHO'S DOWN? And then... there are the sob stories. The ones you tsk tsk about behind their backs. The ones who (in your opinion) deserve a bad year every once in a while... How about Texas? Charlie Strong's first year looked promising! But with a blowout, embarrassing loss to Notre Dame (well, ok), embarrassing near-misses against California and OK State (hmmm...), a bad loss at TCU (eww...), a surprise win in the Shootout (hey! Maybe...) followed by definitive losses to two foes they used to pick their teeth with the last two weeks: K-State and Iowa State. Read that again. Iowa State! The Texas offense was not only shut out, they never got past the ISU 40 yard line.
But that pales next to Nebraska, who fired a coach who gave them nine wins a season every year - AGAIN. A decade ago, they fired Frank Solich because he wasn't Tom Osborne. The man they hired to replace him...was no Frank Solich. Disaster - they didn't even make .500! In desperation, they brought in NU guy Bo Pelini - colorful, successful, nine wins a season, just like Solich (who went on to be one of the most successful coaches in MAC history). Seven years of Pelini NOT being Tom Osborne was enough for the faithful, and they brought in Mike Riley, a very nice man with a mediocre program at Oregon State, who has produced a mediocre program at Nebraska, finding exciting ways to lose close games to good teams and sometimes to bad teams like Purdue last weekend.
South Carolina was doing badly enough that the Head Ball Coach simply walked away into retirement. Central Florida saw the same story with Head Resume Inflator in the lead walking role. Whether the story ends the same way at Virginia Tech in Frank Beamer's last year remains to be seen. It looks like Minnesota's going to be hanged if they allow Jerry Kill's epilepsy-induced retirement to end the same way, thankfully.
WHAT'S NEXT? Who knows? And isn't that the beauty of football? It's the best reality show there is - all the drama, the competition, the tension of the staged TV events, except it's actual reality! There IS no script! Maybe Texas turns it around! Maybe Florida nosedives the rest of the way! Maybe Jim Harbaugh takes Michigan to four miraculous victories against Ohio State, Iowa in the B1G title game, the semifinal and the NC game, and the Blue rule the nation! Or...just as unlikely...maybe they lose every game from here on out, including a 59-0 shutout by the Buckeyes. That's the point - we can't know ahead of time! So sit back, turn on the TV, go to a game if you're close enough, and enjoy the ride!
WHO'S UP? Well, what about the Cincinnati Bengals and the Carolina Panthers? Everyone who saw both of them at 7-0 starting November raise your hands. OK, we've identified the liars in the room...
WHO'S DOWN? It's not hard to find struggling teams in the NFL, but a couple we saw in the playoffs last year are the Baltimore Ravens and the Detroit Lions. Tough schedule, sure - close games, yes - but somewhere in there, you've got to stand up and win a couple of those games.
WHO'S UP? Three "usual suspects": the Green Bay Packers, the Denver Broncos, and the New England Patriots. Remarkable to watch Peyton be Peyton again, but Rodgers and Brady have left no doubt that they're still at the top of their games. And all three have defenses to get them the ball.
WHO'S DOWN? Again, who do you expect? The Tennessee Titans, of course, who just fired another coach...the Cleveland Browns, who continue to put up with Manziel for some odd reason...the Chicago Bears weren't expected to do much, and still haven't lived up to expectations... and even with their shiny new QB, the Tampa Bay Bucs are barely better than they were at this point last year.
WHO'S UP? There are signs of life in Oakland...in Minnesota...in Atlanta...in St. Louis. Parity is always the stated goal of the NFL admin, but what you really want is the feeling as a fan base that any year could be THE YEAR!
WHO'S DOWN? When you've got a fan base like the Sasktachewan RoughRiders do, arguably the best in the Canadian Football League, and you were expecting to be contending for the Grey Cup, when you were right on the heels of the eventual champion Calgary Stampeders all season...and you go a miserable two and fifteen heading into the final week of the season...yeah, the green is blue this year. The Riders were actually eliminated from playoff contention six weeks ago...in a league where 2/3 of the teams make the playoffs. THAT'S impressive in its badness.
WHO'S UP? When you went 2-16 last year in your first campaign as an expansion franchise, you can be forgiven if a successful second season in your mind was, say, six wins. Looking at the two expansion clubs in the AFL (Gold Coast and GWS), they went through about that - two bad years, then two mediocre years. But instead, the Ottawa RedBlacks are one win away from an Eastern Division championship in their second year - already guaranteed a winning record at 11-6, all they need to do is win OR not lose by more than five points at home on Saturday to the Hamilton Ti-Cats...not the first choice of opponents in this situation, especially since it's the Ti-Cats who will earn the title if you fail. But just to have this opportunity in your sophomore campaign! CONGRATULATIONS, OTTAWA!
WHO'S DOWN? My attention span for Canadian football once the American season hit full steam in late September. It was frustrating, because I knew I didn't have the time or energy to stay abreast of every single thing in the NFL, NCAA, and the CFL - and as the footy season was reaching its climax down under, it was the mid-to-late weeks of the Canadian season that got the short shrift. To our readers, I apologize. But of course, all we can do is our best, and we'll continue to do that for you.
WHO'S UP? At the moment, we have our top four "theoretically playoff bound" FBS teams (in the humble opinion of Following Football ACNC!) - LSU, Clemson, Alabama, Notre Dame. To most observers we've heard, the first two names are almost indisputable at the moment (things change quickly in college football, though!), and the other two could be replaced by any of close to a dozen teams: TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Michigan St, Ohio St, Florida, Stanford, Iowa, Utah, even Memphis or Toledo. (Probably not Idaho, though.)
WHO'S DOWN? Which teams thought they'd be in the mix at this point and aren't? There are some obvious candidates: Georgia, Auburn, Oregon, USC, Tennessee, There are some others whose fan bases might have thought it feasible - but that's another story.
WHO'S UP? There are some remarkable positive stories this fall of teams who weren't expected to fare as successfully as they have, as there are every year. That doesn't make them any less worth applauding: Florida (new head coach Jim McElwain has them sitting at #7 on the Following Football ranking at the moment; finished the 2014 season at #34), Michigan (Harbaugh took a team who finished at #67 last year, bottom half of the FBS, and has them at #14 right now), Houston (up from #69 last year to an undefeated 8-0 at #21 and looking at a possible New Year's bowl); and Temple (similar story arc, moving from #79 to current #22, having just taken Notre Dame to the brink). There are lower eschelon stories as well: Southern Miss moved from tier S up to its current tier L; Tulsa has bounded from tier T up to tier N this year. Vanderbilt from tier R up to its present place in tier I; and Northwestern, who beat Stanford to start the year, Duke for its only legitimate defeat (ahem, Miami), and moved from last year's tier M and #78 all the way into tier G and position #35.
WHO'S DOWN? And then... there are the sob stories. The ones you tsk tsk about behind their backs. The ones who (in your opinion) deserve a bad year every once in a while... How about Texas? Charlie Strong's first year looked promising! But with a blowout, embarrassing loss to Notre Dame (well, ok), embarrassing near-misses against California and OK State (hmmm...), a bad loss at TCU (eww...), a surprise win in the Shootout (hey! Maybe...) followed by definitive losses to two foes they used to pick their teeth with the last two weeks: K-State and Iowa State. Read that again. Iowa State! The Texas offense was not only shut out, they never got past the ISU 40 yard line.
But that pales next to Nebraska, who fired a coach who gave them nine wins a season every year - AGAIN. A decade ago, they fired Frank Solich because he wasn't Tom Osborne. The man they hired to replace him...was no Frank Solich. Disaster - they didn't even make .500! In desperation, they brought in NU guy Bo Pelini - colorful, successful, nine wins a season, just like Solich (who went on to be one of the most successful coaches in MAC history). Seven years of Pelini NOT being Tom Osborne was enough for the faithful, and they brought in Mike Riley, a very nice man with a mediocre program at Oregon State, who has produced a mediocre program at Nebraska, finding exciting ways to lose close games to good teams and sometimes to bad teams like Purdue last weekend.
South Carolina was doing badly enough that the Head Ball Coach simply walked away into retirement. Central Florida saw the same story with Head Resume Inflator in the lead walking role. Whether the story ends the same way at Virginia Tech in Frank Beamer's last year remains to be seen. It looks like Minnesota's going to be hanged if they allow Jerry Kill's epilepsy-induced retirement to end the same way, thankfully.
WHAT'S NEXT? Who knows? And isn't that the beauty of football? It's the best reality show there is - all the drama, the competition, the tension of the staged TV events, except it's actual reality! There IS no script! Maybe Texas turns it around! Maybe Florida nosedives the rest of the way! Maybe Jim Harbaugh takes Michigan to four miraculous victories against Ohio State, Iowa in the B1G title game, the semifinal and the NC game, and the Blue rule the nation! Or...just as unlikely...maybe they lose every game from here on out, including a 59-0 shutout by the Buckeyes. That's the point - we can't know ahead of time! So sit back, turn on the TV, go to a game if you're close enough, and enjoy the ride!
Tuesday, September 29, 2015
UPS and DOWNS for Tuesday, Sept 29th, 2015
UPS to the AFL for an amazing season under some difficult conditions - dealing with the specter of racism against the aboriginal superstar Adam Goodes, who chose to retire quietly, after his final game, so as not to go through the traditional plaudits at the end of his last game that he so richly deserved and therefore avoid the possibility of negative reaction to deal with. The league can't be expected to solve a centuries-old problem singlehandedly in a few weeks, but the footy community did everything they could reasonably do for Adam and against racism. More than that, the murder of Adelaide Crows head coach Phil Walsh was handled with more aplomb and grace than could have ever been asked for - some of the most touching and beautiful moments ever seen on a sporting field took place in the aftermath. The league dealt with the after-effects of the Essendon doping scandal, the possibility of "tanking" for draft choices, and the seemingly everpresent shadow of injuries to its star players, such as Gary Ablett Jr and Nat Fyfe, the 2015 Brownlow Medal winner last night as best player in the league. Finally, as its highest paid player, Lance Franklin, admitted as the playoffs began that his injury issues were more of a mental health case than physical, the AFL and its community made great efforts to both shield him from the prying eyes of the media and to put those mental health issues in the light of day, exposing them as serious and no more or less debilitating OR worthy of embarrassment than a broken arm or an ACL. (Now, if they can get their free agency set-up to work more reasonably...)
DOWNS to the TEAMS WHO WERE EXPECTED TO DO SO WELL THIS SEASON! And yet, here we are, not even out of September, and some teams are so deep in a hole they probably can't dig themselves out of it before the season ends...
> Baltimore Ravens, 0-3, looking up at a hot Bengals team three games up and a tiebreaker, with improved wild card possibilities throughout the AFC... Is another Harbaugh going to the colleges next year?
> Saskatchewan RoughRiders, 2-11 and presumably out of the playoff picture completely, despite the ridiculously generous CFL playoff system which invites 2/3 of the league into the post-season. In theory, they are still just 3 1/2 games behind 5-7 Montreal for that last spot, but with six games remaining, the Mean Green has correctly started playing for next year already. The Riders, Grey Cup winners just three years ago, were expected to contend for the West division title this year with Edmonton and Calgary...instead, they're on coach number 2, quarterback number 3, and on to 2016...
> Oregon Ducks, 2-2 and 0-1 in conference. Still a very viable possibility of a Pac-12 North title, but that's not the OU goal - the college football playoffs are their goal, and while the 31-28 loss at Michigan State would have been survivable, the spanking they got at home last Saturday night from Utah, 62-20 (including a late gift TD by the third-teamers) was so comprehensive and so vivid that no voter will forget it. Ever.
> Many other teams who shot themselves in the foot, like Louisville (1-3), Nebraska (2-2), Texas (1-3), Texas' kicking game (0-2), Tennessee, Auburn, and South Carolina (all 2-2) and Arkansas (1-3...but hey, someone's got to lose in the SEC!); Marshall (3 bad wins and one BAD loss); the entire Mountain West (15-24 outside of conference, 11 of the wins coming against FCS schools); U Mass (1-3 and expected to contend for a MAC East title); Cal Poly SLO, Idaho State, and Montana of the Big Sky, 3-8 between them; Eastern Illinois (0-3); Stephen F Austin (0-4); the entire SWAC (3-12 outside of conference); and our #1 Bottom Team, Davidson of the Pioneer League, who plays almost equally-fruitless Valparaiso at home Saturday, in a meeting of the two last place teams in the Sagarin Ratings for the 253 Division 1 schools. Valpo is down to an amazing 6.67 rating, and yet is favored on the road at Davidson, who has set a record with their current rating of 3.08! It's conceivable that a bad Davidson loss this weekend could create a situation Sagarin's never had in D1: a negative rating.
DOWNS to the TEAMS WHO WERE EXPECTED TO DO SO WELL THIS SEASON! And yet, here we are, not even out of September, and some teams are so deep in a hole they probably can't dig themselves out of it before the season ends...
> Baltimore Ravens, 0-3, looking up at a hot Bengals team three games up and a tiebreaker, with improved wild card possibilities throughout the AFC... Is another Harbaugh going to the colleges next year?
> Saskatchewan RoughRiders, 2-11 and presumably out of the playoff picture completely, despite the ridiculously generous CFL playoff system which invites 2/3 of the league into the post-season. In theory, they are still just 3 1/2 games behind 5-7 Montreal for that last spot, but with six games remaining, the Mean Green has correctly started playing for next year already. The Riders, Grey Cup winners just three years ago, were expected to contend for the West division title this year with Edmonton and Calgary...instead, they're on coach number 2, quarterback number 3, and on to 2016...
> Oregon Ducks, 2-2 and 0-1 in conference. Still a very viable possibility of a Pac-12 North title, but that's not the OU goal - the college football playoffs are their goal, and while the 31-28 loss at Michigan State would have been survivable, the spanking they got at home last Saturday night from Utah, 62-20 (including a late gift TD by the third-teamers) was so comprehensive and so vivid that no voter will forget it. Ever.
> Many other teams who shot themselves in the foot, like Louisville (1-3), Nebraska (2-2), Texas (1-3), Texas' kicking game (0-2), Tennessee, Auburn, and South Carolina (all 2-2) and Arkansas (1-3...but hey, someone's got to lose in the SEC!); Marshall (3 bad wins and one BAD loss); the entire Mountain West (15-24 outside of conference, 11 of the wins coming against FCS schools); U Mass (1-3 and expected to contend for a MAC East title); Cal Poly SLO, Idaho State, and Montana of the Big Sky, 3-8 between them; Eastern Illinois (0-3); Stephen F Austin (0-4); the entire SWAC (3-12 outside of conference); and our #1 Bottom Team, Davidson of the Pioneer League, who plays almost equally-fruitless Valparaiso at home Saturday, in a meeting of the two last place teams in the Sagarin Ratings for the 253 Division 1 schools. Valpo is down to an amazing 6.67 rating, and yet is favored on the road at Davidson, who has set a record with their current rating of 3.08! It's conceivable that a bad Davidson loss this weekend could create a situation Sagarin's never had in D1: a negative rating.
Thursday, September 24, 2015
Terminal Thursday Thoughts
I've talked about this all week, and this is my last scheduled post of the cycle, so let me start and end with the reminder: if you're reading this blog and want it to continue more or less as I'm doing...
The Eagles And Ravens Are Screwed
COMMENT ON THIS POST THIS WEEK!
The issue, of course, is that as much as I love doing this blog, as much as crunching numbers to quantify and align teams at their supposed performance levels is fun for me to do...the time and effort it takes to do the thorough job for all of the teams I feel need to be covered each week is more than I have available to me, at least when you combine that with my regular (read: "paying") job, caring for my children, and the deteriorating condition of my health (which has zero to do with this blog).
In the past, I've had people from Idaho, California, Nevada, North Carolina and Washington who've contacted me about what they've read, and I've known through that kind of anecdotal evidence that we were reaching people, that what we were doing was valued by someone out there. It's not like we need a thousand regular readers, but if we don't have any, which is what the lack of comment feedback suggests, we're just "spitting into the wind", as they say.
If that's not the case, we need you to tell us so.
CONTACT us through the comment section on this or either of the other two posts over the last two days (our regular UPS and DOWNS column, and our PROPHECIES in PHOOTBALL overview of the weekend's procedings (which starts today with the Giants and "Redskins" - an article on line today suggesting the life expectancy of the latter name is close to becoming a finite, definable number).
Here's a thought we were having ourselves that 538 picked up this morning - there seem to be a bunch of "good teams" in the NFL who have started their season 0-2, usually an indicator that the playoffs are out of reach for most. Consider this list of teams: Seattle, Baltimore, Indianapolis, Houston, Detroit, NJ Giants, and Philadelphia. History suggests that ONLY ONE of those seven teams will make it into the post-season! (I've not "forgotten" New Orleans and Chicago. That was intentional.) The chart below in the 538 article shows that of the 7-8 teams over the last two years to go 0-2, only one made the playoffs each year.To make the postseason, most of the time it'll take at least ten wins - and you only have fourteen games left to do so it. A tall order, given that something's not going well to begin with (or you wouldn't be 0-2!).
(By the way, my thought is that the best bet for a playoff team out of this group is the winner of the Indy/Houston race, as Jax and the Titans are unlikely to reach more than eight wins apiece.)
The Eagles And Ravens Are Screwed
By REUBEN FISCHER-BAUM and CHADWICK MATLIN
We’re two weeks into the NFL season, and nine teams are 0-2. But these winless squads are not created equal: The Seattle Seahawks, last season’s NFC champion, are clearly in better shape than the terrible Chicago Bears. Still, two games is an eighth of the season, and two early losses can wipe out even the best teams’ margin of error for the rest of the season.
So, how bad is it to start 0-2? And which of these nine teams have already screwed up their playoff chances?
Sunday, September 13, 2015
QUICK! Before Sunday's games start!
It occurs that we told you the consensus choices other pundits as far as the upcoming NFL season goes, but you've not gotten the benefit of the wisdom of the proven leader in prognostication - Following Football!
So, here are our division projections:
AFC)
EAST: 1) New England. 2) Miami. Close 3) Buffalo. Distant 4) New York Jets.
NORTH: 1) Baltimore by two full games. 2) Pittsburgh. 3) Cincinnati. 4) Vacant. 5) Cleveland.
SOUTH: 1) Indianapolis. 2, closer than you think) Houston. 3, farther than they'd like) Jax. 4) Tennessee.
WEST: All four teams will have at least six wins AND losses... 1) Denver. 2) San Diego. 3) Kansas City. 4) Oakland, all within four games.
NFC)
EAST: 1) Philadelphia IF Sam Bradford is one of the 10-12 best QBs in the league; otherwise Dallas. 2) figure it out... 3) New York Giants. 4 with a stone) Washington.
NORTH: 1) Green Bay. 2) Minnesota. 3) Detroit.
SOUTH: 1) Vacant. 2) Carolina, reluctantly. 3) New Orleans and Atlanta (tie). 4) Tampa Bay.
WEST: 1) Seattle. 2) Arizona. 3) St. Louis. 4) San Francisco.
4) Chicago. (Not a typo.)
PLAYOFFS: AFC seed 3 Baltimore def. seed 6 Houston...seed 5 Pittsburgh def. seed 4 Denver. NFC seed 3 Philadelphia def. seed 6 Arizona...seed 5 Dallas def. seed 4 Carolina.
AFC seed 1 New England def. seed 5 Pittsburgh...seed 3 Baltimore def. seed 2 Indianapolis. NFC seed 1 Green Bay def. seed 5 Dallas...seed 2 Seattle def. seed 3 Philadelphia.
AFC Championship: New England def. Baltimore...NFC Championship: Green Bay def. Seattle.
SUPER BOWL: Green Bay and Cal Berkeley grad Aaron Rodgers def. New England and Bay Area product Tom Brady in Super Bowl 50 in Santa Clara, CA.
So, here are our division projections:
AFC)
EAST: 1) New England. 2) Miami. Close 3) Buffalo. Distant 4) New York Jets.
NORTH: 1) Baltimore by two full games. 2) Pittsburgh. 3) Cincinnati. 4) Vacant. 5) Cleveland.
SOUTH: 1) Indianapolis. 2, closer than you think) Houston. 3, farther than they'd like) Jax. 4) Tennessee.
WEST: All four teams will have at least six wins AND losses... 1) Denver. 2) San Diego. 3) Kansas City. 4) Oakland, all within four games.
NFC)
EAST: 1) Philadelphia IF Sam Bradford is one of the 10-12 best QBs in the league; otherwise Dallas. 2) figure it out... 3) New York Giants. 4 with a stone) Washington.
NORTH: 1) Green Bay. 2) Minnesota. 3) Detroit.
SOUTH: 1) Vacant. 2) Carolina, reluctantly. 3) New Orleans and Atlanta (tie). 4) Tampa Bay.
WEST: 1) Seattle. 2) Arizona. 3) St. Louis. 4) San Francisco.
4) Chicago. (Not a typo.)
PLAYOFFS: AFC seed 3 Baltimore def. seed 6 Houston...seed 5 Pittsburgh def. seed 4 Denver. NFC seed 3 Philadelphia def. seed 6 Arizona...seed 5 Dallas def. seed 4 Carolina.
AFC seed 1 New England def. seed 5 Pittsburgh...seed 3 Baltimore def. seed 2 Indianapolis. NFC seed 1 Green Bay def. seed 5 Dallas...seed 2 Seattle def. seed 3 Philadelphia.
AFC Championship: New England def. Baltimore...NFC Championship: Green Bay def. Seattle.
SUPER BOWL: Green Bay and Cal Berkeley grad Aaron Rodgers def. New England and Bay Area product Tom Brady in Super Bowl 50 in Santa Clara, CA.
Wednesday, January 21, 2015
Do deflated footballs make any difference? From all angles...
First, the two important elements of this story -
1) The NFL has indeed learned that eleven of the twelve footballs used in Sunday's game WERE, in fact, significantly BELOW what their inflation should have been.
2) It wouldn't have mattered if the footballs they played with were NERF footballs - New England would have won the game. Let's repeat that: the underinflated balls did NOT cost Indianapolis a trip to the Super Bowl.
So the question becomes, why did it happen? And was somebody trying to gain an advantage? Or help the players out in the colder weather by NOT giving them rock hard footballs to throw, kick, or catch?
Here's the investigation, courtesy of ESPN Boston.
Here's an FAQ about the legal aspects of the situation...
Here's Andrew Sharp's take on it in Grantland...and here's ESPN's Jackie MacMullen's...
AND, to top it all off, there's now a report from CBS Sports that there are Baltimore Ravens players who think the balls may have been deflated in their game as well...
1) The NFL has indeed learned that eleven of the twelve footballs used in Sunday's game WERE, in fact, significantly BELOW what their inflation should have been.
2) It wouldn't have mattered if the footballs they played with were NERF footballs - New England would have won the game. Let's repeat that: the underinflated balls did NOT cost Indianapolis a trip to the Super Bowl.
So the question becomes, why did it happen? And was somebody trying to gain an advantage? Or help the players out in the colder weather by NOT giving them rock hard footballs to throw, kick, or catch?
Here's the investigation, courtesy of ESPN Boston.
Here's an FAQ about the legal aspects of the situation...
Here's Andrew Sharp's take on it in Grantland...and here's ESPN's Jackie MacMullen's...
AND, to top it all off, there's now a report from CBS Sports that there are Baltimore Ravens players who think the balls may have been deflated in their game as well...
Saturday, January 10, 2015
Ho-hum, the home teams won...
...but the games were worth the price of admission! Seattle had a tough game against the now 8-9-1 Carolina Panthers, more difficult than the records would indicate, although the final score of 31-17 falls in line and perhaps even above where they were expected to fall. Cam Newton played a great game, and with more receiving weapons who's to say they might not have a chance against a defending Super Bowl champ? Just...not THIS defending champ. Perhaps if the Panthers' fullback hangs onto that third and five pass...perhaps if Kam Chancellor doesn't take the pass back to the house in the fourth... But that isn't the case. The Seahawks win, and they will host the winner of the potential classic tomorrow between Green Bay and Dallas next Sunday.
But as far as "classics" go, that's still only a potential. The game today betwixt Baltimore and New England was an instant classic, including TWO fourteen point leads by the Ravens (14-0 after their first two drives, and 28-14 after their opening drive of the second half) that were BOTH swallowed up by the Patriots, and when the lead opened a third time with a field goal, Tom Brady took his minutemen down the field for their only lead of the game. Joe Flacco, who extended his streak to seventeen touchdowns without a playoff interception before a fairly easy pick in the third quarter, gave up a second one in the end zone trying to put together a game-winning drive of his own inside the two minute mark. Yet he still had one more shot at it, as coach Harbaugh East played his cards right against Belechick and got the ball back for a four second Hail Mary play that for ONCE, a defense played correctly and batted out of the end zone where it couldn't harm them. New England ill also host its conference title game next Sunday, against the winner of the Denver/ Indianapolis game tomorrow, following the 35-31 win today over the strong and game Ravens club, the only wild card left in the divisional round this year.
But as far as "classics" go, that's still only a potential. The game today betwixt Baltimore and New England was an instant classic, including TWO fourteen point leads by the Ravens (14-0 after their first two drives, and 28-14 after their opening drive of the second half) that were BOTH swallowed up by the Patriots, and when the lead opened a third time with a field goal, Tom Brady took his minutemen down the field for their only lead of the game. Joe Flacco, who extended his streak to seventeen touchdowns without a playoff interception before a fairly easy pick in the third quarter, gave up a second one in the end zone trying to put together a game-winning drive of his own inside the two minute mark. Yet he still had one more shot at it, as coach Harbaugh East played his cards right against Belechick and got the ball back for a four second Hail Mary play that for ONCE, a defense played correctly and batted out of the end zone where it couldn't harm them. New England ill also host its conference title game next Sunday, against the winner of the Denver/ Indianapolis game tomorrow, following the 35-31 win today over the strong and game Ravens club, the only wild card left in the divisional round this year.
Friday, January 9, 2015
Remember yesterday, when I said that Character Counts?
So, yeah, I forgot I was talking about the National Football League.
This is the league that sent Ben Roethlisberger back into the fourth quarter of a playoff game last Sunday after being hit and getting (to a 98% degree of probability) a concussion which under the league's own newly-enacted concussion rules should have kept him out of the rest of the game - if not from the concussion itself, then from the examination protocol which by definition would have taken longer than they had left in the game.
Except...no, wait! There's Big Ben coming back into the game, three flipping plays later, dropping back to throw...perhaps the WORST pass of his professional life, right into the arms of the waiting Ravens and ending the Steelers' season. Explain again how that was helpful to anyone involved?
This is the league that calls penalties, walks them off...and then reneges on them. If someone can offer a better explanation, be my guest. I pray that this one was incompetence. The "mixed all-star crew" makes that more plausible, although why a professional referee marks off a penalty and THEN gets all the relevant points of view is beyond explanation.
Because if it's NOT incompetence, then that means they realized a Detroit first down with five minutes to go and a 20-17 lead past midfield probably made the game Detroit's to lose, a dangerous proposition if the league's flagship team, playing in its flagship stadium, were to lose to a no-public-perception team when the chance for an Ice Bowl rematch looms, Romo v Rodgers, and all that entails. Better to make it fourth down and pray that the corpse they installed as Lions coach actually punted on 4th and 1 at midfield. Which he did, and it went ten yards, and Romo had a man's drive, and Garrett made a man's call to go for it on 4th and 6, and from THAT standpoint the Cowboys absolutely deserved to win... But outcome does not justify poor choices, or idiocy; the end never justifies the means.
This is the league that calls penalties, walks them off...and then reneges on them. If someone can offer a better explanation, be my guest. I pray that this one was incompetence. The "mixed all-star crew" makes that more plausible, although why a professional referee marks off a penalty and THEN gets all the relevant points of view is beyond explanation.
Because if it's NOT incompetence, then that means they realized a Detroit first down with five minutes to go and a 20-17 lead past midfield probably made the game Detroit's to lose, a dangerous proposition if the league's flagship team, playing in its flagship stadium, were to lose to a no-public-perception team when the chance for an Ice Bowl rematch looms, Romo v Rodgers, and all that entails. Better to make it fourth down and pray that the corpse they installed as Lions coach actually punted on 4th and 1 at midfield. Which he did, and it went ten yards, and Romo had a man's drive, and Garrett made a man's call to go for it on 4th and 6, and from THAT standpoint the Cowboys absolutely deserved to win... But outcome does not justify poor choices, or idiocy; the end never justifies the means.
And now, this is the league which paid for its own "independent" investigation to investigate ITSELF with regards to what it knew about the Ray Rice elevator video when it issued the insanely inadequate two game punishment for a criminal act heinous enough that no one will even HIRE Rice again.
The Mueller Report, paid for by two league owners, found that (surprise!) the League office ISN'T comprised of liars: just incompetents! (Hooray!) Of course, since all of their original explanations involved them lying about being incompetent, you can draw your own conclusions. Certainly, since they claimed in September that they asked EVERYONE for a copy of the elevator video back in February that the Mueller Report says the proof shows they didn't know existed...well, either the NFL blatantly lied about that in order to - to what, make themselves look inept? - or the report itself is completely farcical, in which case they've succeeded in making us forget about the Warren Commission Report.
(If your history is as faulty as Roger Goodell's memory, the Warren Report proved that Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone in killing President Kennedy. The problem is, no one at the time believed a word of it, although time has proven that that was indeed the most likely scenario.)
The credibility of bureaucrats is often dicey to begin with, but when your best case scenario was that you were an idiot? Are you sure that's who you want in charge of your favorite sport?
Your last look at the NFL Divisional Round games this weekend
The "Elite Eight", the home bye week, the quarterfinals. Whatev, dude... To me, this is the REAL start of the playoffs, growing up in the seventies when each conference only GOT four entrants in the Super Derby (three divisions and one wild card, BTW). The best from each of the NFL's eight divisions stack up Saturday and Sunday, and here's some conjectures as to how the games might go...Remember, as Gregg Easterbrook of TMQ likes to say, All Predictions Wrong Or Your Money Back. (Easterbrook says because the home team with the bye historically wins these games at a MUCH higher rate than normal home field advantage, he ALWAYS recommends taking the home team in this round.)
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots: The line in Vegas has New England by 7; Jeff Sagarin also says 7. Their respective ESPN bloggers think the margin will be ten or eleven; Sports Illustrated's Don Banks says 27-20, home team; Grantland's Bill Simmons says 20-17 for his beloved Pats; and Nate Silver's 538 calls this a 5.5 point spread. Fox Sports is predicting a New England victory by ghe score of 24-20. Following Football has been following suit, calling this a 7.5 point game, but we highly suspect we'll be off by at LEAST a half point! NOBODY, however, will be shellshocked if 5-0 in the playoffs Joe Flacco goes into Foxboro and moves to 3.5 - 0.5 all time in Massachusetts against Belechick (the one loss was a fluke shanked field goal).
Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks: When you send a 7-win "playoff" team coming off a win over a shell of a football club into the raucous home of the defending champions, you get the kind of spreads you see for the late game Saturday. Vegas started at 10 1/2 and went UP to 11; Sagarin said 13 from the get-go. Amazingly, David Newton of ESPN has the Panthers winning 16-14: the cable giant is testing him for hallucinogens as we speak. His blog partnerhas a more appropriate 20-10 score planned. Fox Sports predicts a 26-18 Seattle win; Banks calls it 23-17; Nate Silver lists the spread at eleven; and Bill Simmons is betting his house, forecasting a 30-3 final score. Our numbers predict a more conservative 9.5 point margin, but this is the one game where we'd be GENUINELY shocked to see an upset.
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers: There is an amazingly consistent set of prognostications coming from all corners for the renewal of the Ice Bowl: everyone predicts a home team victory, but nobody doubts that it'll be very close (within a touchdown, guaranteed!). The casino spread started at 6 1/2 and has fallen to 5 1/2 (in the Pack's favor, of course); Sagarin's numbers suggest a spread of just a shade over four points; the two ESPN bloggers for these teams foresee margins of two and four; Silver believes it'll be 2.5; Banks is going 31-27 (a VERY common score prediction); Fox says 26-24; and the official, verified, often-imitated-but-never-duplicated Following Football tier system says it'll be exactly the 5 1/2 point spread Las Vegas predicts, which worries me, because if it IS, there will have to be a scoring play like none other in history. Only Bill Simmons breaks ranks, originally just figuring on the Cowboys beating the spread, and then at the end just throwing up his hands and saying 24-22, Dallas. Good luck, Bill - you'll make Governor Christie a very happy man if you're right!
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos: Set aside the "Manning versus his old team" stuff for a minute and think about what his Colts' biggest drawback was...yep, it wad the lack of a defense. (And a running game, for that matter, but irrelevant...) This time, the fact that the weaker defense wears blue again will be his blessing, not his curse, and we see a six point Broncos victory here at FF. Most prognosticators we're looking at agree: Fox says 28-25 Broncos; Simmons goes with 31-20, Denver; Silver says it'll be about a 5.5 point spread; Banks sees a 34-31 game in the offing. Jeff Sagarin's ratings are placing this as a 4 1/2 spread, while Vegas goes with a full touchdown and extra point. Only one of the two ESPN bloggers dares to predict another one-and-done for Eli and Cooper's middle brother, seeing a 35-31 win on the strength of Andrew Luck, not any weakness in Denver's offense; the other has Peyton winning, 31-22.
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots: The line in Vegas has New England by 7; Jeff Sagarin also says 7. Their respective ESPN bloggers think the margin will be ten or eleven; Sports Illustrated's Don Banks says 27-20, home team; Grantland's Bill Simmons says 20-17 for his beloved Pats; and Nate Silver's 538 calls this a 5.5 point spread. Fox Sports is predicting a New England victory by ghe score of 24-20. Following Football has been following suit, calling this a 7.5 point game, but we highly suspect we'll be off by at LEAST a half point! NOBODY, however, will be shellshocked if 5-0 in the playoffs Joe Flacco goes into Foxboro and moves to 3.5 - 0.5 all time in Massachusetts against Belechick (the one loss was a fluke shanked field goal).
Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks: When you send a 7-win "playoff" team coming off a win over a shell of a football club into the raucous home of the defending champions, you get the kind of spreads you see for the late game Saturday. Vegas started at 10 1/2 and went UP to 11; Sagarin said 13 from the get-go. Amazingly, David Newton of ESPN has the Panthers winning 16-14: the cable giant is testing him for hallucinogens as we speak. His blog partnerhas a more appropriate 20-10 score planned. Fox Sports predicts a 26-18 Seattle win; Banks calls it 23-17; Nate Silver lists the spread at eleven; and Bill Simmons is betting his house, forecasting a 30-3 final score. Our numbers predict a more conservative 9.5 point margin, but this is the one game where we'd be GENUINELY shocked to see an upset.
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers: There is an amazingly consistent set of prognostications coming from all corners for the renewal of the Ice Bowl: everyone predicts a home team victory, but nobody doubts that it'll be very close (within a touchdown, guaranteed!). The casino spread started at 6 1/2 and has fallen to 5 1/2 (in the Pack's favor, of course); Sagarin's numbers suggest a spread of just a shade over four points; the two ESPN bloggers for these teams foresee margins of two and four; Silver believes it'll be 2.5; Banks is going 31-27 (a VERY common score prediction); Fox says 26-24; and the official, verified, often-imitated-but-never-duplicated Following Football tier system says it'll be exactly the 5 1/2 point spread Las Vegas predicts, which worries me, because if it IS, there will have to be a scoring play like none other in history. Only Bill Simmons breaks ranks, originally just figuring on the Cowboys beating the spread, and then at the end just throwing up his hands and saying 24-22, Dallas. Good luck, Bill - you'll make Governor Christie a very happy man if you're right!
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos: Set aside the "Manning versus his old team" stuff for a minute and think about what his Colts' biggest drawback was...yep, it wad the lack of a defense. (And a running game, for that matter, but irrelevant...) This time, the fact that the weaker defense wears blue again will be his blessing, not his curse, and we see a six point Broncos victory here at FF. Most prognosticators we're looking at agree: Fox says 28-25 Broncos; Simmons goes with 31-20, Denver; Silver says it'll be about a 5.5 point spread; Banks sees a 34-31 game in the offing. Jeff Sagarin's ratings are placing this as a 4 1/2 spread, while Vegas goes with a full touchdown and extra point. Only one of the two ESPN bloggers dares to predict another one-and-done for Eli and Cooper's middle brother, seeing a 35-31 win on the strength of Andrew Luck, not any weakness in Denver's offense; the other has Peyton winning, 31-22.
Wednesday, January 7, 2015
This weekend's predictions...
As we hit the home stretch, there are just nine games left on the American football calendar - six of which hit this weekend!
The FCS Championship Game is in legendary Frisco, Texas this Saturday, and pits the defending champion North Dakota State Bison (14-1) against the Illinois State Redbirds (13-1).
Regardless of who wins, Northern Iowa is going to declare themselves the TRUE national champ, as they're the only team who beat BOTH of these combatants!
Vegas doesn't set lines on any college games except the FBS, but the Sagarin board has the Bison as a favorite by about 4 1/2 points. (Both teams would be all the way up into the "receiving votes" category: Illinois State falls in the #41 spot of all 252 division 1 teams (FBS and FCS combined), and NDSU actually ranks #32, above more famous teams like West Virginia, Arizona, Duke, Miami (FL) and Penn State!
Here at Following Football, we're also projecting a repeat for the three-time defenders from Fargo, but the Redbirds will be the stiffest test they've faced (UNI excluded, I suppose, although they weren't expected to be such a challenge). We'll go along with a 4.5 point line.
In the NFL, the two games on the weekend project as home team victories, but "that's why they play the game!", as they drone... New England is a 7 point favorite over Baltimore, according to Vegas and Sagarin; FF has them at about 7.5 points, adding the bye week advantage in as well. As for Seattle and Carolina, Vegas has the 'Hawks at 10.5 up, Sagarin at 13 up, and we list them at 9.5 point favorites. Regardless, it'll be an upset if either of the home teams fail to advance.
Sunday's games hold a bit more interest, although Following Football's biggest betting mantra is that the safest bet in football is the bye-week home team in the Divisional Round. Dallas heads to Green Bay in hopes of breaking that trend, but they're 6.5 point underdogs at the casinos, four-plus point 'dogs on Sagarin, and we have them as 5.5 point deficient. But on all those scales, the Cowboys are still the most likely road team to win this weekend; Dallas is the only road team among the five Tier A teams on our scale.
Meanwhile, Indianapolis goes to visit its old quarterback again, with Denver a 7 point favorite in Vegas, 4.5 on Sagarin, and a six point favorite with us. The thrill of Peyton Manning going bonkers against his old secondary becomes secondary (b-dm-cha!) to the thrill of the playoffs!
Finally, on Monday night, we get the first College Football Playoff National Championship game, sponsored by everyone on the planet who hated the BCS...don't look past the fact that neither Oregon nor Ohio State would have BEEN here under the BCS system! Certainly Florida State would have been included (defending champ, undefeated), and the top ranked school under durn near EVERY grading system except ours was Alabama. Last year, they would have played for the title, and Ohio State (59-0 winners over Wisconsin), Oregon (51-13 winners against Arizona), TCU (42-3 over Ole Miss), and Baylor (61-58 over TCU!) would have all had reasons to whine. TCU is STILL going to whine, but we're not an advocate of an eight team playoff, frankly. I got bored of the FCS playoffs after the second round - I don't think three rounds of FCS playoffs are a good idea, either. BESIDES, if all you need to do is win your Power Conference, the point of beefing up non-conference schedules goes away. FOUR TEAMS IS FINE.
ANYWAY...the Vegas line on the game is Oregon by six; Sagarin, on the other hand, favors Ohio State by half a point! At FF, we see it as a good game as well: right now, they're teams A1 and A2, which puts them in virtually a dead heat. I see Oregon as a slight favorite (which is why they're in the A1 slot), but I would NOT bet on this game! We'll call it Oregon by 1.
The FCS Championship Game is in legendary Frisco, Texas this Saturday, and pits the defending champion North Dakota State Bison (14-1) against the Illinois State Redbirds (13-1).
Regardless of who wins, Northern Iowa is going to declare themselves the TRUE national champ, as they're the only team who beat BOTH of these combatants!
Vegas doesn't set lines on any college games except the FBS, but the Sagarin board has the Bison as a favorite by about 4 1/2 points. (Both teams would be all the way up into the "receiving votes" category: Illinois State falls in the #41 spot of all 252 division 1 teams (FBS and FCS combined), and NDSU actually ranks #32, above more famous teams like West Virginia, Arizona, Duke, Miami (FL) and Penn State!
Here at Following Football, we're also projecting a repeat for the three-time defenders from Fargo, but the Redbirds will be the stiffest test they've faced (UNI excluded, I suppose, although they weren't expected to be such a challenge). We'll go along with a 4.5 point line.
In the NFL, the two games on the weekend project as home team victories, but "that's why they play the game!", as they drone... New England is a 7 point favorite over Baltimore, according to Vegas and Sagarin; FF has them at about 7.5 points, adding the bye week advantage in as well. As for Seattle and Carolina, Vegas has the 'Hawks at 10.5 up, Sagarin at 13 up, and we list them at 9.5 point favorites. Regardless, it'll be an upset if either of the home teams fail to advance.
Sunday's games hold a bit more interest, although Following Football's biggest betting mantra is that the safest bet in football is the bye-week home team in the Divisional Round. Dallas heads to Green Bay in hopes of breaking that trend, but they're 6.5 point underdogs at the casinos, four-plus point 'dogs on Sagarin, and we have them as 5.5 point deficient. But on all those scales, the Cowboys are still the most likely road team to win this weekend; Dallas is the only road team among the five Tier A teams on our scale.
Meanwhile, Indianapolis goes to visit its old quarterback again, with Denver a 7 point favorite in Vegas, 4.5 on Sagarin, and a six point favorite with us. The thrill of Peyton Manning going bonkers against his old secondary becomes secondary (b-dm-cha!) to the thrill of the playoffs!
Finally, on Monday night, we get the first College Football Playoff National Championship game, sponsored by everyone on the planet who hated the BCS...don't look past the fact that neither Oregon nor Ohio State would have BEEN here under the BCS system! Certainly Florida State would have been included (defending champ, undefeated), and the top ranked school under durn near EVERY grading system except ours was Alabama. Last year, they would have played for the title, and Ohio State (59-0 winners over Wisconsin), Oregon (51-13 winners against Arizona), TCU (42-3 over Ole Miss), and Baylor (61-58 over TCU!) would have all had reasons to whine. TCU is STILL going to whine, but we're not an advocate of an eight team playoff, frankly. I got bored of the FCS playoffs after the second round - I don't think three rounds of FCS playoffs are a good idea, either. BESIDES, if all you need to do is win your Power Conference, the point of beefing up non-conference schedules goes away. FOUR TEAMS IS FINE.
ANYWAY...the Vegas line on the game is Oregon by six; Sagarin, on the other hand, favors Ohio State by half a point! At FF, we see it as a good game as well: right now, they're teams A1 and A2, which puts them in virtually a dead heat. I see Oregon as a slight favorite (which is why they're in the A1 slot), but I would NOT bet on this game! We'll call it Oregon by 1.
Tuesday, January 6, 2015
Going into the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs,...
...the tiers have been updated below. For obvious reasons, Carolina has made a significant jump upwards, although we resisted shoehorning them into the top eight - they really aren't a top eight team, although given their body of work they're probably not a top twelve team, either. (Seriously...their five game win streak includes three NFC South teams, and games against Cleveland with Manziel at QB and Arizona with the Lord knows who at QB. Don't get too impressed just yet.)
Curiously, all eight divisions are represented in the round of eight! The only division winner to lose (Pittsburgh) lost to a team within its own division.
Here are the rankings at the eighth pole, as they say on the horse track...
Curiously, all eight divisions are represented in the round of eight! The only division winner to lose (Pittsburgh) lost to a team within its own division.
Here are the rankings at the eighth pole, as they say on the horse track...
| FOLLOWING FOOTBALL - weekly rankings | ||||||||
| NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE | (including playoffs) | |||||||
| FF rank | Team | Div | week 17 | ConfRc | DvRec | Home | Season | WC rnd |
| A1 | Seattle Seahawks | N-W | A1 | 10-2 | 5-1 | 7-1 | 12-4 | A1 |
| A2 | New England Patriots | A-E | A2 | 9-3 | 4-2 | 7-1 | 12-4 | A2 |
| A3 | Green Bay Packers | N-N | A3 | 9-3 | 5-1 | 8-0 | 12-4 | A3 |
| A4 | Denver Broncos | A-W | A4 | 10-2 | 6-0 | 8-0 | 12-4 | A4 |
| A5 | Dallas Cowboys | N-E | A5 | 8-4 | 4-2 | 4-4 | 13-4 | A5 |
| B6 | Indianapolis Colts | A-S | B8 | 9-3 | 6-0 | 6-2 | 12-5 | B6 |
| B7 | Baltimore Ravens | A-N | C10 | 6-6 | 3-3 | 6-2 | 11-6 | B7 |
| B8 | Detroit Lions | N-N | B6 | 9-3 | 5-1 | 7-1 | 11-6 | B8 |
| C09 | Pittsburgh Steelers | A-N | B7 | 9-3 | 4-2 | 6-2 | 11-6 | C09 |
| C10 | Cincinnati Bengals | A-N | C11 | 7-5 | 3-3 | 5-2-1 | 10-6-1 | C10 |
| C11 | Carolina Panthers | N-S | D19 | 6-6 | 4-2 | 4-4 | 8-8-1 | C11 |
| C12 | Arizona Cardinals | N-W | B9 | 8-4 | 3-3 | 7-1 | 11-6 | C12 |
| D13 | Philadelphia Eagles | N-E | C12 | 6-6 | 4-2 | 6-2 | 10-6 | D13 |
| D14 | San Diego Chargers | A-W | D13 | 6-6 | 2-4 | 5-3 | 9-7 | D14 |
| D15 | Buffalo Bills | A-E | D14 | 5-7 | 4-2 | 5-3 | 9-7 | D15 |
| D16 | Kansas City Chiefs | A-W | D15 | 6-6 | 3-3 | 6-2 | 9-7 | D16 |
| D17 | Miami Dolphins | A-E | D16 | 7-5 | 3-3 | 4-4 | 8-8 | D17 |
| D18 | San Francisco 49ers | N-W | D17 | 7-5 | 2-4 | 4-4 | 8-8 | D18 |
| D19 | Houston Texans | A-S | D18 | 8-4 | 4-2 | 5-3 | 9-7 | D19 |
| E20 | St. Louis Rams | N-W | E20 | 4-8 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 6-10 | E20 |
| E21 | Cleveland Browns | A-N | E21 | 4-8 | 2-4 | 4-4 | 7-9 | E21 |
| E22 | New Orleans Saints | N-S | E22 | 6-6 | 3-3 | 3-5 | 7-9 | E22 |
| E23 | New York Giants | N-E | E23 | 4-8 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 6-10 | E23 |
| E24 | Minnesota Vikings | N-N | E24 | 6-6 | 1-5 | 5-3 | 7-9 | E24 |
| F25 | Atlanta Falcons | N-S | F25 | 6-6 | 5-1 | 3-5 | 6-10 | F25 |
| G26 | Chicago Bears | N-N | G26 | 4-8 | 1-5 | 2-6 | 5-11 | G26 |
| G27 | Washington Redskins | N-E | G27 | 2-10 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 4-12 | G27 |
| G28 | New York Jets | A-E | G28 | 4-8 | 1-5 | 2-6 | 4-12 | G28 |
| G29 | Oakland Raiders | A-W | G29 | 2-10 | 1-5 | 3-5 | 3-13 | G29 |
| H30 | Jacksonville Jaguars | A-S | H30 | 2-10 | 1-5 | 3-5 | 3-13 | H30 |
| H31 | Tampa Buccaneers | N-S | H31 | 1-11 | 0-6 | 0-8 | 2-14 | H31 |
| H32 | Tennessee Titans | A-S | H32 | 2-10 | 1-5 | 1-7 | 2-14 | H32 |
...as with the colleges, a few thoughts:
...The two conferences "homogenized" somewhat as the end of the season arrived - at one point, there was a huge clump of AFC teams in the middle of the rankings, with all of the NFC teams either above (six or seven of them) or below (...yeah...). But as you can probably see, while there is still a block of NFC teams (from #22-27), that clump of AFC in the middle was broken up by the Rams moving up to #20 and the 49ers dropping to #18 in particular.
...the NFC South spread out some as well, with Carolina's advancement and Tampa's continued fall: their "final" rankings were #11*, #22, #25, and #31.
...in fact, the overall total ranking of the AFC South (teams are ranked as #6, 19, 30, and 32) is just about as bad - they total 87, while the NFC South totals 89 (both subject to change as the playoffs advance).
...at one point, the defending champion Seahawks were ranked below 14th (week 10), only to finish the season as the #1 team going into the knockout round. Good luck to Carolina and whoever else has to go into Seattle...
...conversely, Arizona was ranked #1 as recently as week 11, and Philadelphia and San Diego each spent time in the A tier during the middle of the season. Both of the latter missed the playoffs entirely, and the Cardinals might as well have.
...Again, like the colleges, we will start with this set of tiers when the 2015 season kicks off (modified with the results of the last seven playoff games still to come, of course!). We won't bother with numbers until enough new evidence is in, but there's no point adjusting for free agency and draft picks and "good offseasons" until we see them in actual game action (and rarely does pre-season help that - the teams who go 4-0 in preseason and 4-12 in the regular season are legion.)
Sunday, January 4, 2015
Looking ahead now...
So the NFL Divisional Round is set, and it looks like this:
Saturday 2:30 pm - Baltimore at New England
The sixth seed (11-6) goes to the first seed (12-4), and the early line is Pats by 7 (we have that as our line at FF as well). But the Ravens' secondary looked strong against the Steelers yesterday, and that had been their major weakness. Personally, however, I never bet against the bye teams in this round, and I won't do so this year, either.
Saturday 6:15 pm - Carolina at Seattle
The only two teams to ever reach the playoffs with a losing record face each other. Unfortunately for the now 8-8-1 Panthers, Seattle is no longer 7-9 - they're 12-4, defending Super Bowl champs, and our number one team whom we've installed as ten point favorites.
Sunday 11:00 am - Dallas at Green Bay
Two of the five top teams in the league, matching up in a rematch of the Ice Bowl, the league championship game a lifetime ago (in the pre-merger sixties). We have the Packers installed as a four point favorite, but this is the game I'm most expecting an upset by the visiting team, despite the Packers' 8-0 magic at home.
Sunday 2:30 pm - Indianapolis at Denver
Peyton versus his old team. What more do you need? We have the Broncos as five point favorites, but the Colts have done well against Denver over the three years Mr. Luck has run the blue team, even if they lost 31-24 back in September this season.
Meanwhile, the FBS National Championship Game takes place in Dallas on January 12th, between Oregon and Ohio State. Neither team owns a geographic advantage, and both fan bases travel well, so the crowd advantage shouldn't be a factor. We favor Oregon by a point, although the casino line we use predicts the game as a seven-point Duck victory.
(And of COURSE, we are less than three months from the regular season opener for the Australian Football League!)
Saturday 2:30 pm - Baltimore at New England
The sixth seed (11-6) goes to the first seed (12-4), and the early line is Pats by 7 (we have that as our line at FF as well). But the Ravens' secondary looked strong against the Steelers yesterday, and that had been their major weakness. Personally, however, I never bet against the bye teams in this round, and I won't do so this year, either.
Saturday 6:15 pm - Carolina at Seattle
The only two teams to ever reach the playoffs with a losing record face each other. Unfortunately for the now 8-8-1 Panthers, Seattle is no longer 7-9 - they're 12-4, defending Super Bowl champs, and our number one team whom we've installed as ten point favorites.
Sunday 11:00 am - Dallas at Green Bay
Two of the five top teams in the league, matching up in a rematch of the Ice Bowl, the league championship game a lifetime ago (in the pre-merger sixties). We have the Packers installed as a four point favorite, but this is the game I'm most expecting an upset by the visiting team, despite the Packers' 8-0 magic at home.
Sunday 2:30 pm - Indianapolis at Denver
Peyton versus his old team. What more do you need? We have the Broncos as five point favorites, but the Colts have done well against Denver over the three years Mr. Luck has run the blue team, even if they lost 31-24 back in September this season.
Meanwhile, the FBS National Championship Game takes place in Dallas on January 12th, between Oregon and Ohio State. Neither team owns a geographic advantage, and both fan bases travel well, so the crowd advantage shouldn't be a factor. We favor Oregon by a point, although the casino line we use predicts the game as a seven-point Duck victory.
(And of COURSE, we are less than three months from the regular season opener for the Australian Football League!)
The NFL playoffs have begun!
Sunday 5:47 pm
Redemption! DeMarco Lawrence made up for his earlier mistake, sacking Matthew Stafford on fourth down to win the game for the Cowboys, as Romo kneels to make it a 24-20 victory over Detroit.
For Following Football fans, we nailed both of today's games, and lost both of yesterday's. (Apologies for never getting to publish it. Those of you insiders know why things behind the scene at FF have been off-kilter for a couple of weeks.) We had Pittsburgh over Baltimore by five (the line was 3.5, closer than we were); Arizona even with Carolina (the line was 6.5 Carolina's way, obviously on track); Indianapolis by five over Cincinnati (favored by four, and they won by 16); and Dallas by four, which is what they just won by (they were seven point favorites). So we went 2-2, which puts our pro record for the actual blog site at 13-20, with two washes.
Sunday 5:40 pm
You're up four, two minutes to go, and the other team fumbles right into your hands. If you're anyone except Dallas' DeMarcus Lawrence, don't you just fall on the ball and let your offense run out the clock? The former Boise State player (sigh...), however, wanted to do something more - what, glorious? - and tried to juke people in front of him, whereupon he also fumbled the ball, right back into Lion hands, thereby providing the visitors a chance to return to their drive with a legit chance to win the game (now down four with a minute to go).
Sunday 3:14 pm
Aaaaaaaaaand there it is! Reggie Bush runs around a great block by WR Golden Tate on an 18-yard run to the corner of the end zone to complete the 99.9 yard touchdown drive. It took seven-plus minutes and 15 plays, along with that penalty on 4th down, but the Lions are now 2 for 2 on drives, while Dallas is 0-2.... ESPN says that's the first 99-yard drive in the playoffs since 2001.
Sunday 3:04 pm
Great first TD by the Detroit Lions to go up 7-0 early, lucky punt roll for Dallas that (combined with a Lions penalty) put the visitors on literally the few-inch line. But thanks to a running into the punter penalty in the end zone, the Lions are now on what could end up becoming an epic 99.8 yard drive if they can keep it going past midfield!
Sunday 2:20 pm
Cincinnati just had NO chance today against Indianapolis, or anyone else, for that matter. Too many receivers gone, no weapons for Andy Dalton to use whatsoever. Yes, he's now ohfer four, but don't hold this one against HIM. (For that matter, both of yesterday's losers, the Steelers and the Cardinals, were victims of MAJOR injuries that were the direct cause of their failures on offense.) Not sure the Colts have the weapons to run with the Broncos, but at least they're going to have a shot next week, where the Bengals wouldn't.
Saturday 9:02 pm
The most likely "upsets" of a home team were in the two games today - Baltimore's playoff experience and Arizona's sub-.500 opponent made them that way - and it's looking like we'll get one for two, as Terrell Suggs' interception between his thighs led to a Flacco TD pass which puts the Ravens up 30-15 with half a quarter to go. The lack of a run threat for Pittsburgh will cost them a playoff run, it seems...
Saturday 7:52 pm
Baltimore up 10-9 on Pittsburgh in a classic Northeast brawl, and their secondary's holding up so far! The Steelers are dealing well without LeVeon Bell to this point, too.
To finish up the 27-16 Carolina victory: they held Arizona to a playoff record low 78 yards of offense, and it can't help but bring to mind what the Cardinal radio team brought up as the end was in sight: "When we look back at this season, we won't be able to help wondering what might have been." Given their injury list, including multiple quarterbacks, we won't be able to help agreeing with them. Carolina made enough mistakes that we suspect Carson Palmer could have exploited successfully...for that matter, they wouldn't have been 11-5, either.
And for the record book: Teams under .500 entering the playoffs are now 2-0 in their playoff openers...
Saturday 5:23 pm
Listening to Mel Kiper is usually entertaining - to his credit, he's always brutally honest. On ESPN radio this morning, he offers that there were two teams going into the playoffs he knew he would pick against when the playoffs came: Arizona and Carolina. Imagine his disappointment when they ended up playing each other...and as the game continues, he was right. Neither team should win; neither team deserves a playoff win.
According to our tiered rankings for Week 17, the Cardinals should have been favored, but that doesn't account for the rise of the Panthers in the last few weeks and the fifth string quarterback Arizona's been forced to use now. It probably shouldn't be a surprise that Carolina's up 27-14 in the fourth quarter and en route to a defeat next round in the cold of either Washington or Wisconsin...
Redemption! DeMarco Lawrence made up for his earlier mistake, sacking Matthew Stafford on fourth down to win the game for the Cowboys, as Romo kneels to make it a 24-20 victory over Detroit.
For Following Football fans, we nailed both of today's games, and lost both of yesterday's. (Apologies for never getting to publish it. Those of you insiders know why things behind the scene at FF have been off-kilter for a couple of weeks.) We had Pittsburgh over Baltimore by five (the line was 3.5, closer than we were); Arizona even with Carolina (the line was 6.5 Carolina's way, obviously on track); Indianapolis by five over Cincinnati (favored by four, and they won by 16); and Dallas by four, which is what they just won by (they were seven point favorites). So we went 2-2, which puts our pro record for the actual blog site at 13-20, with two washes.
Sunday 5:40 pm
You're up four, two minutes to go, and the other team fumbles right into your hands. If you're anyone except Dallas' DeMarcus Lawrence, don't you just fall on the ball and let your offense run out the clock? The former Boise State player (sigh...), however, wanted to do something more - what, glorious? - and tried to juke people in front of him, whereupon he also fumbled the ball, right back into Lion hands, thereby providing the visitors a chance to return to their drive with a legit chance to win the game (now down four with a minute to go).
Sunday 3:14 pm
Aaaaaaaaaand there it is! Reggie Bush runs around a great block by WR Golden Tate on an 18-yard run to the corner of the end zone to complete the 99.9 yard touchdown drive. It took seven-plus minutes and 15 plays, along with that penalty on 4th down, but the Lions are now 2 for 2 on drives, while Dallas is 0-2.... ESPN says that's the first 99-yard drive in the playoffs since 2001.
Sunday 3:04 pm
Great first TD by the Detroit Lions to go up 7-0 early, lucky punt roll for Dallas that (combined with a Lions penalty) put the visitors on literally the few-inch line. But thanks to a running into the punter penalty in the end zone, the Lions are now on what could end up becoming an epic 99.8 yard drive if they can keep it going past midfield!
Sunday 2:20 pm
Cincinnati just had NO chance today against Indianapolis, or anyone else, for that matter. Too many receivers gone, no weapons for Andy Dalton to use whatsoever. Yes, he's now ohfer four, but don't hold this one against HIM. (For that matter, both of yesterday's losers, the Steelers and the Cardinals, were victims of MAJOR injuries that were the direct cause of their failures on offense.) Not sure the Colts have the weapons to run with the Broncos, but at least they're going to have a shot next week, where the Bengals wouldn't.
Saturday 9:02 pm
The most likely "upsets" of a home team were in the two games today - Baltimore's playoff experience and Arizona's sub-.500 opponent made them that way - and it's looking like we'll get one for two, as Terrell Suggs' interception between his thighs led to a Flacco TD pass which puts the Ravens up 30-15 with half a quarter to go. The lack of a run threat for Pittsburgh will cost them a playoff run, it seems...
Saturday 7:52 pm
Baltimore up 10-9 on Pittsburgh in a classic Northeast brawl, and their secondary's holding up so far! The Steelers are dealing well without LeVeon Bell to this point, too.
To finish up the 27-16 Carolina victory: they held Arizona to a playoff record low 78 yards of offense, and it can't help but bring to mind what the Cardinal radio team brought up as the end was in sight: "When we look back at this season, we won't be able to help wondering what might have been." Given their injury list, including multiple quarterbacks, we won't be able to help agreeing with them. Carolina made enough mistakes that we suspect Carson Palmer could have exploited successfully...for that matter, they wouldn't have been 11-5, either.
And for the record book: Teams under .500 entering the playoffs are now 2-0 in their playoff openers...
Saturday 5:23 pm
Listening to Mel Kiper is usually entertaining - to his credit, he's always brutally honest. On ESPN radio this morning, he offers that there were two teams going into the playoffs he knew he would pick against when the playoffs came: Arizona and Carolina. Imagine his disappointment when they ended up playing each other...and as the game continues, he was right. Neither team should win; neither team deserves a playoff win.
According to our tiered rankings for Week 17, the Cardinals should have been favored, but that doesn't account for the rise of the Panthers in the last few weeks and the fifth string quarterback Arizona's been forced to use now. It probably shouldn't be a surprise that Carolina's up 27-14 in the fourth quarter and en route to a defeat next round in the cold of either Washington or Wisconsin...
Saturday, January 3, 2015
Did we forget to publish our season end NFL Tiers?
WOW! CAN'T BELIEVE THAT!
So, that's embarassing enough, but even more so because when you look at these rankings and tiers and compare them with the records, you'll think we just looked at the RECORDS and ranked them in that order. We swear! That's not how it happened!
We really did sort the teams first, looking at how they performed in week 17 and adjusted their previous tiers accordingly, and THEN looked up the records. To our chagrin...
Picking NFL playoff games is a fairly straightforward crapshoot. Chalk always says, pick the home team in the first round. (The tiers say take Arizona over Carolina, though. Not sure our guts agree.) In the second round ALWAYS take the home team with the bye to rest up. After that...good luck!!
Regardless, here are our season-end tiers with rankings from 1-32:
A - 1. Seattle (12-4, 10-2 in conference, 5-1 in division games, 7-1 at home)
2. New England (12-4, 9-3, 4-2, 7-1)
3. Green Bay (12-4, 9-3, 5-1, 8-0)
4. Denver (12-4, 10-2, 6-0, 8-0)
5. Dallas (12-4, 8-4, 4-2, 4-4)
These five teams all have the tools to win it all. Hard to imagine Dallas going to both Wisconsin AND Washington and winning twice, though.
B - 6. Detroit (11-5, 9-3, 5-1, 7-1)
7. Pittsburgh (11-5, 9-3, 4-2, 6-2)
8. Indianapolis (11-5, 9-3, 6-0, 6-2)
These three teams have a chance, but they're flawed teams that are going to have to have exceptional runs from other segments of the team to make up for those flaws to win it all.
C - 9. Arizona (11-5, 8-4, 3-3, 7-1)
10. Baltimore (10-6, 6-6, 3-3, 6-2)
11. Cincinnati (10-5-1, 7-5, 3-3, 5-2-1)
12. Philadelphia (10-6, 6-6, 4-2, 6-2)
They're all four good teams, deserving of playoff spots, but we just can't see them overcoming their seedings to make it to the Super Bowl. (Especially the Eagles. Duh.)
D - 13. San Diego (9-7, 6-6, 2-4, 5-3)
14. Buffalo (9-7, 5-7, 4-2, 5-3)
15. Kansas City (9-7, 7-5, 3-3, 6-2)
16. Miami (8-8, 6-6, 3-3, 4-4)
17. San Francisco (8-8, 7-5, 2-4, 4-4)
18. Houston (9-7, 8-4, 4-2, 5-3)
19. Carolina (7-8-1, 6-6, 4-2, 4-4)
All good seasons, but not good enough (unless you play in the NFC South). Still, nothing to be ashamed of. It's interesting to watch mid-tier teams' reactions to a season like this, whether it becomes "something they can build on" or "there are things we need to improve on next year" or (in one case) "Hey, Michigan? Ya want him?"
E - 20. St. Louis (6-10, 4-8, 2-4, 3-5)
21. New Orleans (7-9, 6-6, 3-3, 3-5)
22. Cleveland (7-9, 4-8, 2-4, 4-4)
23. New York Giants (6-10, 4-8, 2-4, 3-5)
24. Minnesota (7-9, 6-6, 1-5, 5-3)
F - 25. Atlanta (6-10, 6-6, 5-1, 3-5)
Each of these teams has things that they can build on for next year, although watching Carolina's demolition of the Falcons on Sunday makes it hard to find anything beyond Matt Ryan in Atlanta; hence the separate tiering for the now coachless Falcon club.
G - 26. Chicago (5-11, 4-8, 1-5, 2-6)
27. Washington (4-12, 2-10, 2-4, 3-5)
28. New York Jets (4-12, 4-8, 1-5, 2-6)
29. Oakland (3-13, 2-10, 1-5, 3-5)
We're not big fans of the instinctive "fire the coach" reactions, but SOMETHING has to change for each of these teams. Coach, key players, owners, SOMETHING.
H - 30. Jacksonville (3-13, 2-10, 1-5, 3-5)
31. Tampa Bay (2-14, 1-11, 0-6, 0-8)
32. Tennessee (2-14, 2-10, 1-5, 1-7)
If there were somewhere to relegate these teams to - a "minor league" besides the FBS - we'd send these three teams there in a heartbeat. (Hey! They're all in SEC country! I wonder...) Besides, Florida doesn't really need three pro teams. Send one to LA and one to London.
So, that's embarassing enough, but even more so because when you look at these rankings and tiers and compare them with the records, you'll think we just looked at the RECORDS and ranked them in that order. We swear! That's not how it happened!
We really did sort the teams first, looking at how they performed in week 17 and adjusted their previous tiers accordingly, and THEN looked up the records. To our chagrin...
Picking NFL playoff games is a fairly straightforward crapshoot. Chalk always says, pick the home team in the first round. (The tiers say take Arizona over Carolina, though. Not sure our guts agree.) In the second round ALWAYS take the home team with the bye to rest up. After that...good luck!!
Regardless, here are our season-end tiers with rankings from 1-32:
A - 1. Seattle (12-4, 10-2 in conference, 5-1 in division games, 7-1 at home)
2. New England (12-4, 9-3, 4-2, 7-1)
3. Green Bay (12-4, 9-3, 5-1, 8-0)
4. Denver (12-4, 10-2, 6-0, 8-0)
5. Dallas (12-4, 8-4, 4-2, 4-4)
These five teams all have the tools to win it all. Hard to imagine Dallas going to both Wisconsin AND Washington and winning twice, though.
B - 6. Detroit (11-5, 9-3, 5-1, 7-1)
7. Pittsburgh (11-5, 9-3, 4-2, 6-2)
8. Indianapolis (11-5, 9-3, 6-0, 6-2)
These three teams have a chance, but they're flawed teams that are going to have to have exceptional runs from other segments of the team to make up for those flaws to win it all.
C - 9. Arizona (11-5, 8-4, 3-3, 7-1)
10. Baltimore (10-6, 6-6, 3-3, 6-2)
11. Cincinnati (10-5-1, 7-5, 3-3, 5-2-1)
12. Philadelphia (10-6, 6-6, 4-2, 6-2)
They're all four good teams, deserving of playoff spots, but we just can't see them overcoming their seedings to make it to the Super Bowl. (Especially the Eagles. Duh.)
D - 13. San Diego (9-7, 6-6, 2-4, 5-3)
14. Buffalo (9-7, 5-7, 4-2, 5-3)
15. Kansas City (9-7, 7-5, 3-3, 6-2)
16. Miami (8-8, 6-6, 3-3, 4-4)
17. San Francisco (8-8, 7-5, 2-4, 4-4)
18. Houston (9-7, 8-4, 4-2, 5-3)
19. Carolina (7-8-1, 6-6, 4-2, 4-4)
All good seasons, but not good enough (unless you play in the NFC South). Still, nothing to be ashamed of. It's interesting to watch mid-tier teams' reactions to a season like this, whether it becomes "something they can build on" or "there are things we need to improve on next year" or (in one case) "Hey, Michigan? Ya want him?"
E - 20. St. Louis (6-10, 4-8, 2-4, 3-5)
21. New Orleans (7-9, 6-6, 3-3, 3-5)
22. Cleveland (7-9, 4-8, 2-4, 4-4)
23. New York Giants (6-10, 4-8, 2-4, 3-5)
24. Minnesota (7-9, 6-6, 1-5, 5-3)
F - 25. Atlanta (6-10, 6-6, 5-1, 3-5)
Each of these teams has things that they can build on for next year, although watching Carolina's demolition of the Falcons on Sunday makes it hard to find anything beyond Matt Ryan in Atlanta; hence the separate tiering for the now coachless Falcon club.
G - 26. Chicago (5-11, 4-8, 1-5, 2-6)
27. Washington (4-12, 2-10, 2-4, 3-5)
28. New York Jets (4-12, 4-8, 1-5, 2-6)
29. Oakland (3-13, 2-10, 1-5, 3-5)
We're not big fans of the instinctive "fire the coach" reactions, but SOMETHING has to change for each of these teams. Coach, key players, owners, SOMETHING.
H - 30. Jacksonville (3-13, 2-10, 1-5, 3-5)
31. Tampa Bay (2-14, 1-11, 0-6, 0-8)
32. Tennessee (2-14, 2-10, 1-5, 1-7)
If there were somewhere to relegate these teams to - a "minor league" besides the FBS - we'd send these three teams there in a heartbeat. (Hey! They're all in SEC country! I wonder...) Besides, Florida doesn't really need three pro teams. Send one to LA and one to London.
Tuesday, December 16, 2014
NFL predictions for the penultimate Week 16!
(There's your "word of the day" - "penultimate"! The one before the 'ultimate', the second to last. Use it in conversation once today!)
Here are the predictions for the sixteen games played on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday this week in the National Football League, from four sources: Following Football's tiered rankings, Sagarin ratings, the Vegas casino consensus, AND the "Elo rating system" from the website Five-Thirty-Eight, run by the quasi-legendary Nate Silver. Elo has been used in chess for decades, maybe centuries; and it's just now developing a following in other activities. It's actually very simple, and it's the basis for Following Football's Australian Rules Footy ranking system introduced last week: When you beat a team, your rating goes UP and theirs goes DOWN by exactly the same amount. How MUCH depends on how your ratings compared to begin with: if you beat a team you're "supposed" to beat, it won't change very much, but if it's an upset, the change will be more radical. [Word to the prudent: I'm estimating the change factors for this week because 538 hasn't published its actual predictions for Week 16 as of Tuesday; I will update this post when they do so, probably Thursday afternoon.]
So, here's Week 16!
THUR FF Tiers Vegas line Sagarin Elo Ratings
Tennessee @ Jacksonville Jax -3 Jax -3 Jax - 3.0 Jax - 1.0
SAT
Philadelphia @ Washington Phi -7 Phi -9 Phi - 9.3 Phi - 7.5
San Diego @ San Francisco EVEN SF - 2 SD - 0.7 SF - 2.0
SUN
Minnesota @ Miami Mia -5 Mia -7 Mia -8.1 Mia -4.0
Baltimore @ Houston HOU -1 BAL - 6 BAL -1.2 Bal -2.5
Detroit @ Chicago Det -5 Det -7 Det - 4.0 Det -2.5
Cleveland @ Carolina Car - 1 Car - 4 Car - 1.0 Car - 4.0
Atlanta @ New Orleans NO - 2 NO - 6.5 NO -3.1 NO - 3.0
Green Bay @ Tampa Bay GB -11 GB - 10.5 GB - 11.3 GB - 8.0
Kansas City @ Pittsburgh Pit -4.5 Pit - 3.5 KC - 1.9 Pit - 3.0
New England @ New York Jets NE -10.5 NE -10.5 NE -15.2 NE - 10.5
New York Giants @ St. Louis StL - 6.5 StL -5 StL - 5.9 StL -4.5
Buffalo @ Oakland Buf - 5 Buf -6 Buf - 9.3 Buf -3.5
Indianapolis @ Dallas Dal -1 Dal -3 Indy -1.1 Dal -1.0
Seattle @ Arizona Ariz -2 Sea -9 Ariz -0.6 Sea -2.0
MON
Devner @ Cincinnati Den - 1 Den - 3.5 Den -5.4 Den -2.5
So, a couple of observations...
The three games that we'll put on the "betting block" this week are (as noted above) Baltimore at Houston (we like the Texans at home; Vegas thinks it's the Ravens all the way, with the computers backing them to a slight degree - we'll claim the point if the game goes into overtime or Houston wins outright), San Diego at San Francisco (we've always believed that Vegas loves the 49ers because of all the Northern CA money that comes across the Sierras to bet on them - again, if SD wins or there's OT, we'll claim the point), and the defacto NFC West title game, Seattle at Arizona (HUGE discrepancy here - Sagarin agrees with us that the Cardinals are the favorites at home; Elo agrees with Vegas that the defenders should be favored. We'll take Seattle -2.5 as the tipping point; anything above that is Vegas' point.).
Sagarin's ratings differ from all other projections in four other Sunday games, marked above: they seem to have a fetish for Kansas City (preferring them IN Pittsburgh!), New England (fifteen points in an NFL game is HUGE!), Buffalo (we love the Bills' defense, too, but Oakland ALWAYS plays strong!), and Indianapolis (to be fair and honest, we didn't give Dallas their supposed "home field advantage this week, because they're 3-4 at home and 7-0 on the road this year!). Or maybe it's that they don't like their opponents (Pittsburgh, the Jets, Oakland, and Dallas)? It'll be interesting to see. Notice that the Elo ratings never seem to deviate TOO far from the norms.
Our record so far this year is down to 35-33-3, indicative of sheer guesswork. But I feel comfortable with our "guesswork" this year, and we'll continue to refine the system so it'll work everywhere (except maybe in the NFL, where parity is mandated!) We were actually ahead 3-1 last week after Saturday, but we lost all three of the PRO games, including last night's smashing of the Bears by the resurgent (for the moment) Saints. [By the way, with the win, the Saints move into the theoretical driver's seat with the wretched NFC South; they can (and should) win out to win the division at 8-8!]
Here are the predictions for the sixteen games played on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday this week in the National Football League, from four sources: Following Football's tiered rankings, Sagarin ratings, the Vegas casino consensus, AND the "Elo rating system" from the website Five-Thirty-Eight, run by the quasi-legendary Nate Silver. Elo has been used in chess for decades, maybe centuries; and it's just now developing a following in other activities. It's actually very simple, and it's the basis for Following Football's Australian Rules Footy ranking system introduced last week: When you beat a team, your rating goes UP and theirs goes DOWN by exactly the same amount. How MUCH depends on how your ratings compared to begin with: if you beat a team you're "supposed" to beat, it won't change very much, but if it's an upset, the change will be more radical. [Word to the prudent: I'm estimating the change factors for this week because 538 hasn't published its actual predictions for Week 16 as of Tuesday; I will update this post when they do so, probably Thursday afternoon.]
So, here's Week 16!
THUR FF Tiers Vegas line Sagarin Elo Ratings
Tennessee @ Jacksonville Jax -3 Jax -3 Jax - 3.0 Jax - 1.0
SAT
Philadelphia @ Washington Phi -7 Phi -9 Phi - 9.3 Phi - 7.5
San Diego @ San Francisco EVEN SF - 2 SD - 0.7 SF - 2.0
SUN
Minnesota @ Miami Mia -5 Mia -7 Mia -8.1 Mia -4.0
Baltimore @ Houston HOU -1 BAL - 6 BAL -1.2 Bal -2.5
Detroit @ Chicago Det -5 Det -7 Det - 4.0 Det -2.5
Cleveland @ Carolina Car - 1 Car - 4 Car - 1.0 Car - 4.0
Atlanta @ New Orleans NO - 2 NO - 6.5 NO -3.1 NO - 3.0
Green Bay @ Tampa Bay GB -11 GB - 10.5 GB - 11.3 GB - 8.0
Kansas City @ Pittsburgh Pit -4.5 Pit - 3.5 KC - 1.9 Pit - 3.0
New England @ New York Jets NE -10.5 NE -10.5 NE -15.2 NE - 10.5
New York Giants @ St. Louis StL - 6.5 StL -5 StL - 5.9 StL -4.5
Buffalo @ Oakland Buf - 5 Buf -6 Buf - 9.3 Buf -3.5
Indianapolis @ Dallas Dal -1 Dal -3 Indy -1.1 Dal -1.0
Seattle @ Arizona Ariz -2 Sea -9 Ariz -0.6 Sea -2.0
MON
Devner @ Cincinnati Den - 1 Den - 3.5 Den -5.4 Den -2.5
So, a couple of observations...
The three games that we'll put on the "betting block" this week are (as noted above) Baltimore at Houston (we like the Texans at home; Vegas thinks it's the Ravens all the way, with the computers backing them to a slight degree - we'll claim the point if the game goes into overtime or Houston wins outright), San Diego at San Francisco (we've always believed that Vegas loves the 49ers because of all the Northern CA money that comes across the Sierras to bet on them - again, if SD wins or there's OT, we'll claim the point), and the defacto NFC West title game, Seattle at Arizona (HUGE discrepancy here - Sagarin agrees with us that the Cardinals are the favorites at home; Elo agrees with Vegas that the defenders should be favored. We'll take Seattle -2.5 as the tipping point; anything above that is Vegas' point.).
Sagarin's ratings differ from all other projections in four other Sunday games, marked above: they seem to have a fetish for Kansas City (preferring them IN Pittsburgh!), New England (fifteen points in an NFL game is HUGE!), Buffalo (we love the Bills' defense, too, but Oakland ALWAYS plays strong!), and Indianapolis (to be fair and honest, we didn't give Dallas their supposed "home field advantage this week, because they're 3-4 at home and 7-0 on the road this year!). Or maybe it's that they don't like their opponents (Pittsburgh, the Jets, Oakland, and Dallas)? It'll be interesting to see. Notice that the Elo ratings never seem to deviate TOO far from the norms.
Our record so far this year is down to 35-33-3, indicative of sheer guesswork. But I feel comfortable with our "guesswork" this year, and we'll continue to refine the system so it'll work everywhere (except maybe in the NFL, where parity is mandated!) We were actually ahead 3-1 last week after Saturday, but we lost all three of the PRO games, including last night's smashing of the Bears by the resurgent (for the moment) Saints. [By the way, with the win, the Saints move into the theoretical driver's seat with the wretched NFC South; they can (and should) win out to win the division at 8-8!]
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