AFL update

Still the only obloid game on the planet (not counting rugby), here's an update on the world of Australian Rules Football...

North Melbourne stayed unbeaten at 8-0 with a pair of close wins over eminently beatable teams; many think the Kangaroos are ripe for the taking, though it's unlikely to be the surprising 4-4 Carlton Blues who do that. Not particularly a Blues fan, but it would be fun to see this young team doing it with defense and hustle take down the undefeated leaders! Geelong sits at 7-1, cruising just one game behind, having pulled away from 8th place Adelaide down the stretch. Patrick Dangerfield has been a stellar addition to their midfield, moving them from out of the playoffs last year to a Grand Finals prospect in 2016. The two Opera House teams, Sydney and Greater Western Sydney (GWS), share the 6-2 spots on the ladder in 3rd and 4th, followed by the similarly 6-2 Western Bulldogs and the defenders, the Hawthorn Hawks, trailing on point percentage. Rounding out the top eight are the West Coast Eagles, alone at 5-3, and the Adelaide Crows, ahead of three other teams on percentage at 4-4. If that's not the list for the eight finals teams, I'll eat my non-existent hat! They're far and away the better of the eighteen teams, still to be discussed.

In that 4-4 pack are Carlton, mentioned above, Port Adelaide, winning games against who they should beat; and the Melbourne Demons, who have been building towards this for a couple of years. Are they ready for finals? I think it'll be one year. Below them, the fast falling Gold Coast Suns, losers of five straight, and the disappointing Collingwood Magpies, who nevertheless have OUR interest as they removed their star player, Travis Cloke, several weeks ago, in favor of a rookie from (gasp!) AMERICA named Mason Cox, who has been nothing short of impressive and improving weekly. At 2-6 sit two potentially dangerous teams: Saint Kilda, losers to good teams by close margins, and Richmond, who upset Sydney on a goal after the siren (if you catch a longish kick, called a "mark", you get to dispose of the ball unimpeded - the advantage of a mark! - even if the siren's sounded; since it's unimpeded, it's a chance to kick a goal and win if you're behind by less than a goal beforehand). Some are saying it's the "beginning of something big!" because they ran off late season winning streaks before; I don't think so. The bottom three all look terrible, and for different reasons: Brisbane Lions, which got hammered each of the last three weeks and has the coach on figurative suicide watch; Essendon Bombers, who this year are a ragtag collection of half regulars and half replacement players for reasons we've talked bout more than enough; and the 0-8 Fremantle Dockers, last year's minor premiers, who have finally started looking competitive for large chunks of games (they even led Hawthorn at the half before getting annihilated in the third quarter).

On the player of the year front, we actually have a FORWARD leading for the first time in my memory - usually, the midfielders get all the glory, but after taking the end of the season off to recover from mental health issues, Lance Franklin from Sydney is aiming for 100 goals - and he may make it! It hasn't been done for eight years, since ... well, since he did it at Hawthorn in 2008!
Here's the current leaderboard after eight rounds:

Lance Franklin					SYD		148
Patrick Dangerfield					GEEL		146
Luke Parker					SYD		126
Jarrad Waite					NMK		101
Tom J Lynch					GCS		98
Joel Selwood					GEEL		97
Dan Hannebury					SYD		92
Max Gawn					MEL		92
Lachie Hunter					WB		90
Rory Sloane					ADE		90

Dangerfield has been nothing short of remarkable; Parker and Hannebury are getting Buddy Franklin the ball in record numbers;and it's good to see Max Gawn and Tom J Lynch getting the kind of credit they have deserved for awhile now!

As for my "tipping" record? Well, I'm doing about normal for me right now; I'm sitting in the top 1000 or so consistently (out of 188,000 bettors at the moment), and within the GWS campaign, I've been in the top ten most of the season and currently sit eighth again (I was up to second at one point...). 

UPS and DOWNS for AUGUST WEEK 4!

Things are looking UP if you're a fan of young quarterbacks!

This weekend saw some very positive performances from the two start 2015 draft picks, Marcus Mariota in Tennessee and Jamies Winston in Tampa Bay! Both started for their teams, both have had glowing reports for their performances and behavior in camp (when was the last negative Winston story you've heard?), and this weekend they each demonstrated their command of the new offenses they've been hired to run. Remember, these two teams were 2-14 last year, and there are STILL a ton of problems, but they look to have the possibility of strong leadership in the pocket for a while to come. (The caveat of the dangers of injury for a scampering quarterback come into play, Right, RG3?) More exciting for us was the strong performances of Johnny Manziel in Cleveland, who looks to actually be challenging for a starting position, as does EJ Manuel in Buffalo, although in his case it's to regain it. MOST exciting, if you really think about it, is the play of Teddy Bridgewater in Minnesota. He went 10-14 this weekend with a TD, and his leadership of that young Viking team is remarkable. Between him and the young coach Mike Zimmer, there are some truly amazing possibilities for a team that suddenly can combine a competent defense and a good passing game with the god-like running abilities of excoriated running back Adrian Peterson, back from suspension for child abuse. (Understand. please: I'm a teacher. I have five children myself. You do not whomp a child the way Mr. Peterson did. Having said that, he has served his punishment. Welcome him back, and let the man do the job he was trained to make a living at.)

Things are looking DOWN if you're a fan of COLLINGWOOD or ESSENDON.

There are so many good stories in the AFL - the one-two western punch of Freo and West Coast; the ascendance of the young GWS and St. Kilda clubs, the strength and stability of the traditionally erratic Richmond and North Melbourne teams, the possibility of a three-peat from the amazingly talented Hawthorn Hawks, and most excitingly, the run-and-gun style of play that's made the Western Bulldogs one of the scariest teams in the league.

But there are downsides, too, and they are mostly based in Melbourne. The Carlton Football club looks destined to have the first draft choice, so pathetic was their season. But they looked like they'd be down the ladder to begin with (Following Football had them forecast for three wins in February, and we're two weeks from being proven right). Melbourne was at the bottom of the ladder for the last several years, save for the newbie teams, and for them five wins is progress.

Collingwood and Essendon, however, should have been playing finals football this year, instead of losing games by one hundred points as a regular occurrence. For Essendon, the causes are straightforward: the drug scandal of 2012-13, where the medical staff injected players with steroids and other WADA-banned substances without the players' consent, continues to haunt the team. 34 players still do not know with certainty if they might face punitive action down the road, even if they had no part in the illegal actions for which the entire Essendon hierarchy has now lost their jobs. The other cause, frankly, is the now-fired (excuse me: "retired") head coach, James Hird, an Essendon legend as a player, who may or may not have been part of the drug plans but certainly threw gasoline on the fire over the last two years with his bizarre and inexplicable actions both on and off the field. The list of problems under his watch are far too numerous to list here, but the combination of apathy, hypocrisy, and arrogance made him a sadly comical figure by the time the end mercifully arrived Tuesday. Unsurprisingly, the Bombers played with more emotion this weekend, losing by just two points to an under manned Gold Coast team that they should've run into the ground, but who under Hird they probably would've lost to in the second quarter.

As for Collingwood, their problems are only beginning. 8-3 at the midpoint for the second season in a row, they hit a rough stretch of the season where they had to play Fremantle, Hawthorn, Port, and West Coast in a row. Not all that surprisingly, they lost all four, but were competitive in all of them...until the end of the Eagles game. Then came a game against Western, and despite being favored, they let the Bulldogs beat them. Finally, they got a break (at 8-8 and no longer in the top 8) and get to play lowly Melbourne...and lost to them by 37 points. Now it's hit the fan. They somehow manage to beat bottomfeeder Carlton, by just 18, and then give top four Sydney a run before losing 87-76 in Sydney. Great, we're back on track... until this weekend, when Richmond not only beats them, but utterly obliterates them, 147-56, and the Magpies looked like they didn't want to play. At all. Geelong is probably licking their chops right now, waiting for the Pies to show up in uniform only this weekend, uninterested in competing against the Cats. 

Both teams should lose this weekend, and then a fascinating game awaits for the last match of the season, on a Sunday afternoon on September 6th: Collingwood v Essendon, with absolutely nothing on the line - probably five or six wins apiece at that moment, so far out of finals that the game was relegated to that last time slot while all the teams who'll still be playing next week are home resting by then.

PROPHECIES in PHOOTBALL - August Week 3

(I dunno...y'like the alliterative misspelling in the title or not? Let us know...)

Welcome home to Following Football 2.0, and our regular Wednesday feature where we share the outcomes of games this weekend without the benefit of having actually experienced those games yet!

We'll start with the AFL this week, and there are at least a pair of games that are very difficult to call - the Aussie oddsmakers have Fremantle @ North Melbourne as a dead heat - no spread at all, very unusual for them. Even more unusual - bettors haven't moved that line either direction! We're going with the Freo Dockers from pedigree (they've played these big games and won them; the Kangaroos are as up and down a team as you'll ever find), but North prob needs the game more than Freo does...

The other difficult pick involves the Gold Coast Suns, as talented a team as you'll ever see but with more injuries than the Spartan army in 300, hosting the Essendon Bombers, who just strongly suggested to their coach that his presence would be better off done without for the foreseeable future. The Dons are another talented team, finalists last year, suffering from the shadow of the drug scandal that's haunted them for three years now. That's as may be, says I, but it doesn't defend the lack of professionalism when you show that you simply don't want to play, that you allow middling teams like Adelaide and Saint Kilda to run over you like tackling dummies. THAT part was coaching. I don't know the interim coach from my butcher, but I'll bet that changing to ANYONE else is going to restore enough pride into that team to defeat a squad of second teamers, which is all Gold Coast can muster at this point in the season, three weeks from vacation. Taking Essendon at 2.80, sixteen point spread be hanged.

The other games are all over the board - Hawthorn's favored by 46 over Port, but I suspect the Power will show up enough to keep it respectable... Richmond, on the other hand, should have no trouble whomping Collingwood...Hard to call the Opera House Haggle (not its name, but I like it) - Sydney's fighting for a top four spot; Greater Western Sydney's fighting to make the top eight and keep playing, and it's at GWS. Oddsmakers have it fifteen points Sydney's way; AFL.com's predictor is going with GWS, and so's my heart. Unfortunately, my brain says the same thing it did for the first game - pedigree picks the Swans to beat the Giants once more, though it'll be tight. If either team solves its ruckman issues by Saturday, they'll win...Geelong should walk all over St. Kilda and Adelaide won't have any trouble with Brisbane...If Melbourne doesn't have "one of those games", they should defeat Carlton and keep the Blues at the bottom with two games left...Finally, the most exciting game of the round (maybe the season) is the one in Perth between the surprising high speed West Coast Eagles and the surprising high speed Western Bulldogs - this could be 150 apiece, or the defenses could annihilate each other and it'd be 50 apiece! Home field to the Eagles, and that's how I'm betting, too.

Our current record is 126-44, and we went 7-2 last week (missed on GWS losing to Port Adelaide and West Coast beating Fremantle). Against the spreads, we're 99-71.

Time to look at the CFL, where a very strange thing happened last weekend: all four games went according to predictions. That's right, even though Following Football, the CFL.ca prognosticator Jamie Nye, and the professional oddsmakers all picked Edmonton, Toronto, Hamilton, and Calgary to win...they somehow all DID win! Edmonton had to come from 12-0 behind to kick a field goal as time expired (so to speak - in the CFL, there's one play AFTER 0:00 every half), but Toronto handled Winnipeg more easily than a 27-20 score indicates, while Hamilton and Calgary each annihilated their oppositions (combined score of 100-25). So those four teams now have a little separation from the pack: each sits at 5-2 and looking strong, with Ottawa at 4-3 and the other four below .500 at this moment.

Well, this week, Calgary and Toronto should be heavy favorites against Saskatchewan and Ottawa respectively - a touchdown or so - but Hamilton has to play at Edmonton, which should be a dogfight! The TigerCats have the highest rating in the Following Football elo system at 40.4, but with the home field advantage, Edmonton actually balances that out to a net draw. We're still going with Hamilton, impressed with the full-team supremacy they've exhibited the last three weeks. Finally, while Winnipeg gets the week off, Montreal has the unenviable task of flying to Vancouver to play the BC Lions, who should be able to hold off the Alouettes with their home field advantage, although the FF ratings have this match as a draw as well! Nevertheless, we're going with BC.

We are now at 17-15 for the year with our Canadian picks, good for the top 20% in the CFL pick-em, and on a streak of seven in a row correct. Against the spread, we're 16-15-1.

Finally, we look and laugh at the NFL oddsmakers, not because they don't know what they're doing, but they probably don't know why they're doing it! As we often discuss here, football coaches have many, MANY higher priorities that WINNING, or even the scoreboard, in a preseason game. What is you're betting on when you bet a pre-season game, especially in the NFL? How serious a coach is about winning? Whose third teamers are better? Which team leaves their starters in slightly longer?
Sigh.

Any way, the odds that caught my attention are listed below, and here's why I picked these: imagine Vegas setting ANY of these lines in a "REAL" game between the teams listed!

Washington -3 over Detroit?
Cleveland -3 over Buffalo?
KC -2 over Seattle?
New Orleans -1 over New England?
Houston -3 over Denver?
Pittsburgh -3 over Green Bay?
San Francisco -3 1/2 over Dallas?

Somehow, that last one really floors me! (And yes, our record is still 0-0 this year...)

Tomorrow, in Thursday Thoughts, we'll discuss the forecast for the winners of the American football scene in 2015-16 - both the NFL and the division 1A NCAA.

UPS and DOWNS for August Week 3!

Welcome back to another edition of UPS and DOWNS, friends! Without further ado...

UP - SALIVATION LEVELS for AMERICAN FOOTBALL! It's amazing what some meaningless pre-season, week one games with actual NFL uniforms pounding into each other can do to the American, football-starved public! Not a single meaningful occurrence this weekend on the gridiron in the US, and yet tastebuds are prepared, appetites are salivating, and nowhere more than in Philadelphia, where they've been watching Chip Kelly's shenanigans for months now without anything to actually base an OPINION on! So, with four quarters under their belts against Indianapolis, they finally have barroom conversation - most of which will be based around Tim Tebow.

DOWN - SANTA CLAUS. Which reminds us: How BAD of a guy can Santa Claus be if a Philly crowd can give Tim Tebow a standing O before he plays a single down for them, and BOO Santa Claus? Whose opinion do I need to adjust? My opinion of Tebow, or Santa?

UP - THE WILD WEST! If we have to name two surprise teams in the Australian Footy League this year (in an "up" context!), it would have to be the two "Wests" - the West Coast Eagles, based in Perth, on the (you guessed it) west coast of Australia (currently sitting in second place when we and most others predicted they would yet again fail to reach the top eight), and the Western Bulldogs, who are 'western' only in the sense that the University of Michigan is the "champion of the west", as their fight song says. It was a different time. Western IS rather 'western' as the greater Melbourne area goes, and as the state of Victoria goes, which is where the Western (previously Footscray) Bulldogs are located. But Western's sitting fourth after a string of impressive victories, including the most thrilling 76-2 quarter and a half you'll ever watch en route to a 98 point win Sunday. It wasn't that Melbourne was bad, either - it's just that Western's players were moving SO FAST that the poor Demons had no shot at keeping up. From the Melbourne Demon point of view, it was the least embarrassing 76-2 run imaginable. If that makes sense. This weekend, Western travels TO the West Coast in a showdown of fast moving offenses and stellar defenses, and it's very possible that they'll meet again down the road in September during finals...even the Grand Final, perhaps!

DOWN - THE ESSENDON DONS.  Finally, finally, Essendon "parted ways" with their 'head coach' James Hird today - three days after yet another listless defeat (and that's complimentary to lists, who wouldn't want to be associated with it), this time to Adelaide 171-59, who ran around them like they were "witches' hats" (traffic cones, Yanks). Quite simply, the players stopped caring weeks ago. They'd play hard for a while, and it would be competitive for a quarter, maybe two. But once the other team started playing and passed them, that was it. And that's what happened last weekend - again - the Dons actually led by a goal after one, 4.3.27 to 3.3.21 (that reads, 4 goals, 3 behinds, totaling 27 for Essendon; 3 goals, 3 behinds, totaling 21 for Adelade). Which means the LAST three quarters went 24 goals to 4, Adelaide's way, and 150 points to 32. And remember, Adelaide's a middle of the pack team. Heaven forbid they met up with Hawthorn or West Coast right now. Hird's departure comes only a day or two after he defiantly told reporters he was still the right man for the job, and in today's press conference he was "dutifully stepping away for the benefit of the players",

If you've followed Hird's insipid handling of the season, you'll get a great laugh out of these quotes from the Tuesday presser, which I suspect...well, read this first:

"I'm not disappointed [that] the club's let me down," Hird said. 

"The reason for this decision is to enable the players and the supporters some space to perform and be a normal football club again.

"I didn't know it would come to this [but] I felt that the club needed space. There was a question mark there and that was enough to say, let's try something else. 

"These players have to be allowed to play. It's not just about me resigning or moving on, the industry has to let them play and give them some space. 

"It's not their fault. I think the industry should give them a break.

"My hesitation in leaving this club at this time is because I believe the players still need strong guidance and care, which I hope to continue to provide from a distance." 

That's right, friends - James Hird is the martyr here, heroically stepping aside so that the players can be "allowed to play". My favorite part, personally, is that he's "not disappointed the club's let ME down"...as if it's THEIR fault you couldn't be bothered to coach this year when that team so DESPERATELY needed some real guidance and coaching, maybe more than any team EVER in the league's history following the worst team doping scandal in sports history. 

Not to pre-empt PROPHECIES in tomorrow's Following Football, but I suspect Essendon's going to play a whole lot better the last three games this season...

The Weekend In Haiku

This feature WON'T be
As regular as the rest,
But, ONCE in a while...

Michael Sam retired.
Well, "stepped away from the game,"
But, two plus two is...

Pre-season football
Doesn't have the appeal, but...
Better than nothing!

Up twelve to nothing,
Alouettes' offense did SQUAT:
Edmonton by three.

Magpies SHOULD'VE won,
But Sydney KNOWS how to win.
Swans finish up nine.

Hamilton Ti-Cats
an-NI-hi-late the Lions:
Three complete phases.

Great night of footy!
Stayed up all night listening:
Then slept in past ten...

Hawthorn smashed Geelong;
Essendon has given up;
and Carlton's now last.

Not a haiku, but an amazing statistic... Friday was the start of the German Bundesliga (major league futbol, one of the European Champions leagues), and the odds of winning the league title for favorite Bayern Munich was 1-12, which means they are SO certain of winning that betting a "dollar" (sorry, I'm American) would only earn you a twelfth of a dollar in winnings (1.08), or that if you bet twelve euros, you'd only get thirteen back if they win. By contrast, every American NFL, NBA, or MLB team had odds of at least 2.5 to 1, so you'd win at least $2.50 plus your original dollar at the very worst.

Would love to say that
The N-F-L inspires me...
But not pre-season.

Here's how far Essendon has fallen...

If you were wondering just how fast and far the Essendon Bombers are falling, here's exhibit A:

Their opponent, the Melbourne Demons, is favored for the first time all season (it's round 15). Prior to this, they were the underdogs against every single team in the competition for every game, by a total of almost 400 points. 

They're 5 1/2 point favorites Saturday.

Okay, now all the votes are in...

...from The Age, Sports Fan Australia, Following Football, and AFL.com.au, and here's your All-AFL 2015 team at mid-season:

Behind the 50:
Alex Rance (Rich) - the outstanding on-ball defender in the game today.
Sam Mitchell (Haw)
Michael Hurley (Ess)
Jarred McVeigh (Syd)
Tom McDonald (Mel)
Matt Boyd (Western)

Between the 50s: 
Nat Fyfe (Fre) - Polled 6+ points voting EVERY round Freo's played (no one else has polled in more than 10 of their games)
Matt Priddis (WCE)
David Armitage (StK)
Todd Goldstein (NMK)
Dan Hannebury (Syd)
Dylan Shiel (GWS)

Forward of 50:
Lance Franklin (Syd) - it's rare that the highest paid player's also the best, but Buddy is...
Scott Pendelbury (Col)
Luke Parker (Syd)
Jamie Elliot (Col)
Josh Kennedy (WCE)
Eddie Betts (Ade)

Interchange:
Aaron Sandilands (Fre) - the premier ruckman in the game today. 
Andrew Gaff (WCE)
Corey Enright (Geel)
Patrick Dangerfield (Ade)

And, on my personal wish list to watch play any day of the week:
Cyril Rioli (Haw) - Along with Betts, the most exciting player in the game!
Jeremy Cameron (GWS) - the top goal scorer of 2017 and beyond...
Adam Goodes (Syd) - enjoying a fantastic resurgence since May!
Nic Natainui (WCE) - the most athletic player in footy
Rob Murphy (WB) - always on the ball, literally
Marcus Bontempelli (WB) - 2019 Brownlow medalist
Chad Wingard (PA) - a down year for him and Port; still a phenomenal player
Jack Riewoldt (Rich) - Jack would have been player 23 on the All-Aussie list
Jesse Hogan (Melb) - rookie of the year, possibly
Gary Ablett, Jr. (GC) - it took just one game to remind us why he's the greatest player of his generation and the Brownlow favorite any year he's healthy (and some he's not, like 2014!).

(And, by the way, here are our top 22 point getters in voting for Player of the Year so far:)
NAME                           TEAM               POINTS

Fyfe, Nat	F	221
Hannebury, Dan	SY	124
Armitage, David	SK	112
Pendlebury, Scott	CO	106
Cotchin, Trent	R	101
Shiel, Dylan	GW	100
Mitchell, Sam	H	92
Priddis, Matt	WC	91
Goldstein, Todd	NM	88
Steven, Jack	SK	83
Gray, Robbie	PA	81
Murphy, Marc	CA	80
Beams, Dayne	B	80
Franklin, Lance	SY	79
Kennedy, Josh	SY	75
Martin, Dustin	R	74
Dangerfield, Patrick	A	73
Gaff, Andrew	WC	73
Hurley, Michael	E	70
Parker, Luke	SY	70
Murphy, Robert	WB	69
Neale, Lachie	F	68

 

AFL Round 14 in review

The biggest rout of the year took place on Sunday afternoon (which was Saturday night here in the US), when St Kilda upset free-falling Essendon by the astronomical score of 162-52, a 110-point victory!

Throughout the game, the Saints played against a defense that resembled cones in a practice drill (or "witches' hats", if you prefer the down under term). To score 25 goals in a game is hard to do in a game of footy, but the lack of energy in the Bomber personnel was, to be kind, disheartening.

The commemoration of murdered Adelaide head coach Phil Walsh, begun Friday night at the Collingwood/Hawthorn game, continued at every game throughout the weekend - a stirring tribute to a fellow "lifer" from the footy community. The idea that teams can go tooth-and-nail for two hours and then come together and live out the Adelaide 2015 campaign motto, #weflyasone, was superb. We posted Rohan Connelly's plea to continue the camaraderie beyond this weekend, and we join him in those pleas.

As for the actual games that were played this weekend... 

Sydney over Port Adelaide by 10; Hawthorn by 10 over Collingwood; Richmond struggled past a toughened GWS with a nine-point win, and Western had the same difficulty with Carlton before they managed an eleven-point victory. Gold Coast welcomed both David Swallow and dual-Brownlow winner Gary Ablett Jr. back Saturday, and apparently that was all they needed, as they annihilated the North Melbourne Kangaroos 125-70 (and it wasn't that close). We talked about St Kilda's 110-point whipping of Essendon, but the West Coast Eagles beat up on Melbourne as well, winning 114-60. Brisbane held up against league-leader Fremantle for three quarters, tied throughout in wet, messy conditions that made it a tackler's paradise (more tackles were made in this game than every game ever except one (a game (there was a Richmond/Port game in 2010 with an unimaginable 258 tackles, or one every 25 seconds or so. Ridiculous.) Unfortunately, there are four quarters, and Freo scored seven goals to one in the last to win, 84-48.  

The Adelaide / Geelong game was cancelled, but the stadium was opened for fans to come onto the field and pay their respects, kick the football around parts of the field, and share their grief with other mourners. Adelaide is presumed to be back to work next week, with a game at West Coast on Saturday evening.

Midseason eval of each footy team in the AFL

These two articles together (splitting the eighteen AFL teams into articles each looking at nine teams) will give veteran footy followers a keen sense of where their teams are lacking and where they're running with power, but it'll also help the novice AFL fan get a feel for what each team is right now and what they're capable of.

Adelaide-Brisbane-Carlton-Collingwood-Essendon-Fremantle-Geelong-Gold Coast-GWS

Hawthorn-Melbourne-North-Port Adelaide-Richmond-St.Kilda-Sydney-West Coast-Western

And by the way, if you're still looking to get a handle on who each of these teams really is, here's a link to a great set of descriptions, one for each Australian club, matching them to an American sports team which they most closely resemble. (For example, Fremantle, who won last night 80-73 in a thrilling game, most closely resembles hockey's New Jersey Devils, while their opponent Collingwood fills the niche of baseball's royalty, the New York Yankees.)

Week 8 down under...

Results of Round 8...
Geelong def. Carlton 140-63
West Coast def. St. Kilda 131-78
GWS def. Adelaide 108-84
Collingwood def. Gold Coast 132-63
Sydney def. Hawthorn 73-69
Fremantle def. No. Melbourne 115-42
Essendon def. Brisbane 136-78
Melbourne def. Western 103-64
Richmond def. Port Adelaide 76-43 

The AFL ladder right now...
Fremantle is still two games clear, and with Sydney's revenge win over the Hawks (possibly the game of the year so far!), Freo has four games clear of Hawthorn with 14 to go! 

Two games back at 6-2 are Sydney and two surprises: West Coast (who will find out in the next four weeks if they're real or not, playing three finalists) and Greater Western, who won three in a row for the first time ever. To put the Giants' success in perspective: the best season in GWS' history, 2014, was 6-16. They're already 6-2 this season.

At 5-3 comes two teams who (while firmly in the top 8 right now) have questionable credentials given the quality of teams they've beaten: Collingwood and Adelaide. Right behind them are six teams fighting for the last finals spots - Hawthorn (very likely), Richmond (see Collingwood), Essendon (who knows?), Geelong (looking more and more probable), Western (depends which game you watch!), and North Melbourne (who may be as talented as anybody, but...). If you give the top four credit for likely making the playoffs, the next four most likely to last the season might be Adelaide, Hawthorn, Geelong, and maybe Western. But it's a long season...

...and Port Adelaide is still lurking there at 3-5, if they can return to earlier form. Their partner at 3-5 is Melbourne, but those were three upsets. Below them are St. Kilda and Brisbane, with two upsets in eight attempts, and 1-7 disasters Gold Coast and Carlton.

In the FF Rating system,
Hawthorn still leads with an 85.3 rating (it doesn't hurt that they lose by four and win by a hundred), but Fremantle has crept within a few points to 81.8 (a jump of thirteen points since round 1). Right behind them are Sydney (no surprise, 76.5) and West Coast (yes surprise, 74.1).

Then there's a huge clump sitting in spots #5-13, all close to the average score of 50: Geelong (58.3), Adelaide (56.5), Port Adelaide (55.0, despite recent losses), North Melbourne (54.3), Collingwood (53.6), Richmond (53.1), Essendon and GWS (51.7), and if we stretch the definition, Western (40.6, but until their last two big losses they were also around 50). You see why it should be hard to predict these games!

Below that, you have Melbourne (29.8), Gold Coast (who's dropped all the way to 23.3), Brisbane (21.6), St. Kilda (actually increased to 16.0) and lowly Carlton, who's lost 23 points this year and sits at a 14.3 rating. (Gold Coast has also dropped 23 points, and Port has lost 17. On the other side, GWS is up 20, Collingwood up 17, West Coast 15 and Fremantle 13 since March!)

Footy news - 5/22/2015

Geelong whomped Carlton from the opening bounce Friday night (again, that's already happened in Australia) 140-63, increasing the pressure on the Blues to do something dramatic when, truthfully, no quick fix is going to change the fact that they simply don't have enough AFL talent on their roster. Firing legendary coach Mick Malthouse, now the winningest coach in history, in mid-season is cruel and would do no good; the calls from the sensible folks to announce that Malthouse will coach out the season and a new coach (and lots of new players!) would join the Blues for 2016 makes more sense at this point. (A story on afl.com.au's "Pick A Winner" show listed only SEVEN players who should by consensus in the Carlton ranks, and another half-dozen who might; the others aren't really qualified to play at the highest level yet. Legendary player Garry Lyon said Monday that only THREE players "deserved to wear their jumpers" (which are uniform jerseys, statesiders). THAT makes it tough to win when you have a 22-man roster of grown men AFL players on the other side of the pitch!)

Meanwhile, the AFL has revised the system for two draft day peculiarities that Americans aren't familiar with: the father-son connection and the academy priority pick. This year, for example, Isaac Heeney, easily one of the two or three best players in the draft, went to Sydney at choice number 18 because he had been "raised" and trained in the Sydney Swan Training Academy. There should certainly be some credit given to a club for doing the work which made the player great, but Melbourne was willing to draft him at 2 and never had the chance. Similarly, Joe Daniher went to Essendon a few years ago at pick 10, even though he was arguably the best player in the draft and would have gone #1 in the open market - however, since his dad played for Essendon, he had the right to declare himself a Bomber, and being highly rated that required the Dons to spend whatever their highest draft choice was on him. The new system is extremely complicated, but computer apps can handle those details and level out the playing field without depriving clubs of those advantages. (Wonder how long it'll be for a Giant or Sun to be drafted as a father-son!)

One of the funny occurrences in the Geelong game, especially for an AFL regular season game, was the request on the field after the game from winning team member Cam Guthrie, 23 years of age, to veteran two-time Brownlow Medal winner Chris Judd of Carlton for his jumper, ideally signed! The speculation, well-founded, is that Guthrie had grown up as a footy player idolizing Judd (a good choice, as footy role models go), and although Guthrie frankly had a better performance than Judd Friday night, he's simply "that kind of dude", as they called him in the radio booth! Judd obliged, but hesitated about taking Guthrie's Geelong jersey in return...

Bipolar Footy Weekend: Saturday was as predicted, but SUNDAY?

Great game on Friday night, for once, as North Melbourne defeated Essendon 93-82 in an exciting game that flip-flopped several times. But Saturday...yawn...five games that all played to form, and the closest one was 43 points in the end:
- Adelaide over St. Kilda 119-73 (although the Saints started with a three-goal lead!)
- Hawthorn over Melbourne 155-50, and it wasn't that close.
- Sydney pulled away from Geelong 120-77 after a close first three quarters.
- GWS proved its credentials by annihilating poor Carlton 135-57, following their "famous victory" over the Hawks last week.
- And poor Gold Coast fielded whoever they could in a 135-43 rout by the West Coast Eagles that was well over 100 points shortly after three quarters, before they called off the slaughter.

So, expectations for Sunday were NOT high. And then...
- The Western Bulldogs (having fought to use Etihad Stadium this week, rather than give it up to a soccer tourney) fought back from 32-0 to tie the game at 88 with less than 4 minutes to go, only to see 7-0 Fremantle win by 13 (101-88) in the end. What a incredible game from both teams!
-As the legendary Rex Hunt (my favorite footy voice of all time!) broadcast his 2000th game of AFL/VFL footy (and the stories he can share!...), his ole team Richmond upset Collingwood 105-100 in a game that had 12 lead changes!
-And finally, amazingly rising from the dead, the Brisbane Lions pulled away from the much more talented Port Adelaide Power and won 102-65!

So, the ladder as it sits right now...
1. Fremantle. 7-0 and unbeaten - but happy to have been challenged this week! Still two games clear of all competition and rolling on all cylinders.

2-5. West Coast, Sydney, Adelaide and GWS, all 5-2. All four look like realistic finalists, although I'd take Freo over any of them at the MCG or anywhere else right now.

6-9. Hawthorn, Collingwood, Western Bulldogs and North Melbourne, all 4-3. No reason any of the four couldn't be finalists, but certainly not all nine teams will make finals. Oddly, the difference between 8th and 9th places right now - between Western and North - is exactly ONE point in the percentage: Western has exactly as many points scored as allowed (616/616, or 100.0%), while the Kangaroos have one less point than scored (656/657, or 99.9%).

10-13. Richmond, Essendon, Port Adelaide and Geelong, all at a desperate 3-4 and trying to stay close to finals contention. With fifteen games (2/3 of the season) still to go, there's still plenty of time to make the top eight - after all, Richmond made it from a 3-10 start last year - but the teams ahead of them are going to make it difficult!

14-16. St. Kilda, Melbourne, and Brisbane, all happy to be 2-5 because most folks have them pegged for the bottom of the ladder and maybe not having won any games by now!

17-18. Gold Coast and Carlton, 1-6, desperate for anything positive to happen this season. GC literally had too few players to practice last week, and Carlton "simply doesn't have the talent" to keep up with the rest of the league this year. Gold Coast in particular is a huge disappointment, having expected to make finals this year.

AFL Week Five in review...

Some interesting games this weekend! The last two may have been the most intriguing! 

Port def. Adelaide in the 38th Showdown, and there were stars galore out to perform!  The Power won by 24, and Robbie Gray was named the Outstanding Player, although Chad Wingard and Eddie Betts were among the great performers last night! And Essendon squeaked out an 82-80 victory over lowly St. Kilda, but if professionals can have moral victories, the Saints definitely earned one for this game against the Bombers. The third game Sunday was another Fremantle clinic, a 64-point demolition of quickly-improving Melbourne.

As to the earlier games this weekend, the ones that kept me up all night Friday (!),...
- Collingwood annihilated Carlton by 75 to ruin Blues' coach Mick Malthouse's celebration of his record breaking 715th game...
- Geelong surprised Richmond with a great first half and held on to win by nine...
- Hawthorn showed their championship form by defeating a surprisingly overmatched Kangaroos club 130-70...
- West Coast poured cold water on the flames of the Greater Western Sydney juggernaut, making them look like the youngest franchise again by holding them to one goal over the last three quarters, and won 120-33 (not a typo!)...
- Brisbane took hold of last place by losing badly to fellow zero-win Queensland resident Gold Coast by 64 points.
- And, as mentioned in yesterday's post, the Western Bulldoggies showed they are absolutely REAL, running out to a lead on Sydney early, and then coming back with a game-winning goal late in the fourth after the Swans had come all the way back to take the lead.

Current standings
5-0: Fremantle
4-1: Collingwood, Western Bulldogs
3-2: Hawthorn, West Coast, GWS, Sydney, Adelaide, Port Adelaide, Essendon
2-3: Richmond, Geelong, No. Melbourne, Melbourne
1-4: St. Kilda, Carlton, Gold Coast
0-5: Brisbane Lions.

AFL's Week 3 results...

Collingwood 140, St. Kilda 66... The Saints started strong, but they just don't have the horses to keep up with almost anyone in the AFL.

Essendon 105, Carlton 84...Similarly, Carlton's fourth quarter was good but they don't have the players to stay up to speed with even a low-finals club like the Dons.

Adelaide 80, Melbourne 55...Similarly, the Demons are improving and were able to stay with the 3-0 Crows for most of the game, but after four quarters Adelaide was going to outrun Melbourne.

Sydney 111, Greater Western Sydney 90...and the Giants are in the same boat, able to stay with the Swans for three quarters but not four.

Port Adelaide 113, North Melbourne 105...This was the one competitive game of the round (which went completely to form) - two very good teams in a very close and well-played game, which the home team Power won by about a goal.

Richmond 137, Brisbane 58...Another game between a team fighting for finals and one that certainly won't be.

Hawthorn 127, Western Bulldogs 57...See previous comments. Western is improving quickly, but they're not ready to beat the two-time defenders.

Geelong 105, Gold Coast 96...Two teams starting the game 0-2, both with severe problems that the other exploited at different times in the game. Geelong's too slow for most teams, and in the 2nd and 4th quarters the Suns ran past them, but Gold Coast has major defensive woes, which the Cats exploited in spades the rest of the game.

Fremantle 111, West Coast 81...The score is far too close for the actual game. At one point, the Dockers led 69 to 4! The Eagles scored nine of the last ten goals in the Western Derby to make the score look vaguely respectable, but there's no comparison between the two teams right now.

Records after round three...
3-0: Adelaide, Fremantle, Sydney
2-1: Hawthorn, Richmond, Essendon, Collingwood, GWS, Western
1-2: West Coast, Geelong, Port Adelaide, No. Melbourne, St. Kilda
0-3: Gold Coast, Carlton, Brisbane.

AFL Week 2 in Review/Preview Week 3

What a wild week of footy! Here are the game results from this weekend just concluded...

West Coast 131, Carlton 62.
> The Eagles (1-1 record, 60.0 rating) have a reputation as "flat-track bullies", meaning that when they play lower-level teams, they win in this fashion...but when they play a game like they will next week, against neighbor-rival Fremantle, they can't keep that level of play up. The Blues (0-2, 32.0) are proving they don't have the horses they need to compete this year, and their season will be a battle to stay out of last place. They play Essendon next week.

Western Bulldogs 85, Richmond 66.
> The Doggies (2-0, 39.4) pulled off their second straight upset, outplaying a finals contender again and doing it with ferocity and speed. New head coach Luke Beveridge has brought a toughness to the team that will be tested when they play the two-time champion Hawthorn Hawks next week...but I'm not betting against them. We don't yet know what kind of team the Tigers (1-1, 50.9) are yet, having beaten failing Carlton and now lost to an upsurging Western - next week's game at Brisbane may not tell us much more, unless they lose.

GWS 101, Melbourne 56.
> One of the weirdest games I've ever heard. The Demons (1-1, 22.6) were demolishing the Giants (2-0, 34.4) in the first half, leading 45-12 just before the siren. Something then woke up within the orange and black, and they scored the next fourteen goals to run away with the game - literally. They switched to a speedy lineup, even taking their star goal kicker Jeremy Cameron out of the lineup for the most part, and simply outran the Demons. GWS actually went on an 86-4 scoring run - absolutely insane. Both teams look much better than last year, but they'll have to be: Melbourne plays at Adelaide, and GWS at cross-town rival Sydney.

Adelaide 90, Collingwood 63.
> The first game that went exactly to prediction - a 27 point victory for the team that looks like the presumptive challenger to Hawthorn and Sydney this year. Adelaide (2-0, 70.7) under new coach Phil Walsh has a toughness to them that they haven't had in recent years, and it's ironic that the rumors all off-season was that their superstar Patrick Dangerfield wanted to leave at year's end for Geelong. Right now, that looks foolhardy! Collingwood (1-1, 37.3) put up a good fight, and appears not to be quite the disaster that I thought they'd be this season. The Crows host Melbourne next week, and the Magpies host St. Kilda; both will be prohibitive favorites.

St. Kilda 104, Gold Coast 76.
> What the H#$% is wrong with Gold Coast? The Suns (0-2, 35.7) have not only been barn-whupped by two of the weakest teams in Melbourne and the Saints (1-1, 17.9), but they were never competitive. (One of the sportswriters pointed out that they're proving that former coach Guy McKenna must've been really good. They're doing nothing under Rodney Eade, supposedly a successful coach brought in to "take them to the next level".) They ironically go to play equally-struggling Geelong next week, while St. Kilda tries to build on this against Collingwood on Friday night.

Sydney 92, Port Adelaide 44.
> Any doubts about the Swans (2-0, 79.7) was removed Saturday night with a defensive slaughter of a potent Port team, holding them to just six goals. The "Bloods" were back in hard-tackling form, and the Power (0-2, 66.9) have to fight another top opponent next week in North Melbourne, also prelim finalists last year. (Game 4 is Hawthorn, so when it rains, it pours...) Sydney takes on similarly undefeated Greater Western Sydney in a cross-town rivalry made serious last year when the Giants beat them decisively in round 1.

Fremantle 104, Geelong 60.
> Like Port, Geelong (0-2, 54.1) has a rough schedule to start the year - Hawthorn and Fremantle, both of whom exposed the veteran Cats as slowing down in their old age. (Can they run on Gold Coast next week? It'll be a very interesting game.) Fremantle (2-0, 73.3) showed the last two weeks that they have the goods this year, especially with Brownlow favorite Nat Fyfe running rampant, beating finalists Port and Geelong back to back. Now they get West Coast and Sydney, so it won't slow down much for them. Hard to imagine seeing Geelong in last place on the ladder - my late wife is turning over in her grave! She LOVED the Cats!

Essendon 78, Hawthorn 76.
> If you only watch one set of highlights, this is the match to watch! Essendon (1-1, 55.9) led by 35 at half, the Hawks (1-1, 83.7) stormed back to lead by sixteen points with five minutes to play, and somehow the Bombers scored the last three goals, including two in the last 90 seconds, to pull out a "famous victory" (love that phrase!). After everything the Dons have been through the last year or two, especially the players who weren't involved in 2012's scandal, this was a great reward for patience. They play low-level Carlton next week, while the Hawks try to regroup against up-and-coming Western.

North Melbourne 133, Brisbane Lions 51.
> A rout from the word go...well, alright. Brisbane (0-2, 24.9) kicked three of the first four goals. After that it was all Kangaroos (1-1, 60.6), who bounced back from a rout of their own at the hands of the Crows last week. Jarred Waite kicked seven goals for the 'Roos, who host surprisingly winless Port Adelaide; Brisbane hosts Richmond. 

THIS WEEK'S ROUND THREE GAME PREDICTIONS - 
St. Kilda @ Collingwood (the line is 18-22 points Collingwood's way) - St. Kilda will cover!
Essendon @ Carlton (line is 20-34 points Essendon's way) - take Essendon with ease.
Melbourne @ Adelaide (line is 44-54 points for Adelaide) - and they'll clear even that.
GWS @ Sydney (Swans favored by 39-48) - GWS will cover the spread but lose.
Port Adelaide @ N. Melbourne (Port slightly favored) - take North to win outright.
Richmond @ Brisbane (Richmond by 12-20 points) - The Tigers will win by more than 20.
Western @ Hawthorn (Hawks favored by 40-48) - Western will make it close.
Gold Coast @ Geelong (line reads 24-32 for Geelong) - The Cats will win...
Fremantle @ West Coast (line is Freo by 10-22) - Fremantle's too good. Big win.

AFL Week One In Review...

Welcome! Here are the game results from last weekend's Australian Football League games - Week One of the AFL "home-and-away" season:

Richmond 105, Carlton 78 (Season opener in the MCG!)
Melbourne 115, Gold Coast 89 (a big upset but a deserved win!)
Sydney 72, Essendon 60 (in a heavy downpour - Essendon was up 41 in the third)
Collingwood 86, Brisbane 74
Western Bulldogs 97, West Coast Eagles 87 (another upset, but the Eagles' injuries are going to knock 'em down several pegs this season)
GWS 87, St. Kilda 78  (but the Saints played well!)
Adelaide Crows 140, N. Melbourne 63 (the surprise of the round - not that the Crows won, but that they ANNIHILATED the Kangaroos, who never really showed up)
Fremantle 75, Port Adelaide 68 (the GAME of the round - both teams were superb)
Hawthorn 123, Geelong 61 (the showcase of the round: the Hawks are set for a three-peat!)

Here are the records, ladder positions, and ratings following Round One:

Hawthorn Hawks (1-0) #2	87.1
Sydney Swans (1-0) #5	74.5
Port Adelaide Power (0-1) #10	72.1
Adelaide Crows (1-0) #1	70.7
Fremantle Dockers (1-0) #9	69.5
Geelong Cats (0-1) #17	57.9
N Melbourne Kangas (0-1) #18	55.6
West Coast Eagles (0-1) #12	55.6
Richmond Tigers (1-0) #3	55.1
Essendon Bombers (0-1) #13	52.5
Gold Coast Suns (0-1) #15	42.2
Collingwood Magpies (1-0) #6	37.3
Carlton Blues (0-1) #16	36.4
Western Bulldogs (1-0) #7	35.2
GWS Giants (1-0) #8	31.0
Brisbane Lions (0-1) #14	29.9
Melbourne Demons (1-0) #4	26.0
St. Kilda Saints (0-1) #11	11.4

Tonight's the Night! (Gonna be aw-right!)

Here we go! The 2015 Australian Football League kicks off in less than five hours with Carlton v Richmond, two of the oldest teams and a traditional season opener (albeit not always on a Thursday night, which it already is Down Under!). Go to afl.com.au for all your news, scores, video highlights, and whatever else you want on all things footy! 

Here's the round-up of games for Round 1 of the twenty-two game season...

Carlton v Richmond (Richmond favored by 16.5 on line, 12 by our rating system), Thurs Apr 2

Gold Coast @ Melbourne (GC Suns favored big on all fronts), Sat Apr 4
Essendon @ Sydney (Sydney favored by 30-ish over the Bombers), Sat Apr 4
Collingwood @ Brisbane (despite recent records, Brisbane is rightfully favored by a few points here!), Sat Apr 4
West Coast @ Western (in Melbourne, which tells you how old "Western" is! - pundits are split here. West Coast should be better, but have some injuries...), Sat Apr 4

GWS @ St. Kilda (if ever GWS will be favorites on the road, this is it, by about 15), Sun Apr 5
Kangaroos @ Adelaide (great game, potentially. We like North Melbourne to finish higher, but the Adelaide Crows to win here by a goal), Sun Apr 5
Port Adelaide @ Fremantle (met thrice last year, all classic games! Flip a coin, but Freo is favored by 4-5), Sun Apr 5

Geelong @ Hawthorn (the best matchup there is, because of the six-year long "Kennett Curse" that was broken in the prelim finals in 2013 - now, it's safe to pick Hawthorn by 20+!), Mon Apr 6

We'll update on Mondays, both standings and rating systems, but again, follow for yourself on afl.com.au!

Essendon Footy players CLEARED of all doping charges

The 34 players involved in the AFL doping scandal at the Essendon Bombers footy club in 2012 have all been cleared of wrongdoing by the Australian Sports Anti-Drug Agency (ASADA), and are free of any sanctions, suspensions, or other penalties that would have been handed down had the tribunal found otherwise. 

That group includes a massive number from Essendon itself, so many that the Dons have been preparing retired players and minor leaguers in case their roster was decimated by a guilty verdict today. It also includes stars Angus Monfries from Port Adelaide and Stewart Crameri of the Western Bulldogs, both of whom had moved on from the club since 2012.

Here are a slough of articles from AFL.com.au that hit the topic from all angles:

Thirty-four present and former Essendon players cleared of all wrong-doing.
Here's a blow-by-blow of the day's events coming out of the courtroom, plus the reactions around the sport...
The actual statement from the ASADA tribunal...
A very important detail, in my opinion: the repenting of Essendon head coach James Hird, who in any reckoning of this sorrowful tale is guilty of no less than atrocious judgment, if not far worse.
The reaction of the players involved, like superstar and Brownlow medal winner Jobe Watson, whose comments include, "I'd forgotten what it was like to play and not have this dark cloud over my head."
Where the Essendon club goes from here...specifically, into round one on Sunday against the powerhouse Sydney Swans.
The statement of Essendon chairman Paul Little, hoping for an end to the nightmare.
And the final word on the subject (from our perspective), from AFL president/CEO Gillan McLaughlin, hoping that there won't be any appeals and that the league and its personnel can get on with the business of playing footy again.

From my perspective, here's what it means: The tribunals got this right. This was not (from all reports) a player-driven cheating scandal, like the Americans Lance Armstrong or Barry Bonds or Alex Rodriguez. The players involved were given supplements, not unlike the league-approved vitamins and medicines they are often given for strength and pain-relief and the like. This was a club-driven program, with the people who ran the show in the wrong: trainer, coach, and so forth. The penalty for the head medico is still coming sometime in April, but the coach served a one-year ban (I'm not sure it shouldn't have been longer), the club was banished from the playoffs (one week before they started - an unprecedented hammer!) and paid a $2M fine, and the penalties for the others involved from the administrative end seem, from this distance, to have been punitive enough. The players were victims, and the tribunal saw that.

And now, it's time to move on - for Essendon, and for footy.