Along the four fronts we call home here at Following Football ACNC, results for the weekend are all in, and they're still sparse enough for us to cover everything in one post...so here we go!
Australian Footy: As we posted Friday morning, the final eight are set, with still one final home-and-away round to go next weekend. In fact, given the results of the Round 22 games, even the placements are pretty secure, at least for the top four (which, some would argue, are all that matter in the AFL).
Fremantle doubled up Melbourne, 108-54, clinching the top spot and the first "minor premiership" (regular season championship)in their twenty-something year history! They will host a game in Fremantle against the number 4 seed, almost certainly Sydney, who wiped out St. Kilda 135-38 Sunday and needs just a win against injury-riddled Gold Coast to secure the trip west.
Meanwhile, the West Coast Eagles, who had a chance to catch the Dockers, lost that chance and possibly their key defense back to a shoulder injury when Adelaide utterly obliterated them 51-1 in the first quarter, and won the game by 57 in cruise control. West Coast shouldn't have those problems against the above mentioned St. Kilda team, and would then host the #2/#3 game in Perth against the two-time premier defenders, the Hawthorn Hawks, who did beat the Eagles (in PERTH!) a few weeks back but who would finish third assuming WC takes care of business (and Hawthorn beats Carlton, whom our FF Ratings have them favored to beat by almost ninety points!) The winners of these two Qualifying Finals get the next weekend off and host the survivors of the semifinals, which the losers would then have to play against the winners of the other two games...
...which pit seeds eight at five and seven at six next weekend. The four teams are set, but not the order. Western earned a likely home game by beating the Kangaroos 96-73, and will only have to defeat last-place Brisbane to secure that spot. The other likely host is Richmond, 74-47 winners over beleaguered Essendon Saturday, who will host North Melbourne's Roos in what may very well be the first of a two-weekend double header if the Tigers hold serve at home as they're favored to do. Meanwhile, Western will probably host Adelaide, on a steamroll at the moment as described above (although they played recently and the Bulldogs did beat the Crows).
In other, less meaningful games, GWS beat Carlton 130-51, Collingwood ended the meaning of Geelong's season as mentioned Friday, 110-62, and Port Adelaide continued to irritate Power supporters by showing how good they CAN be and whomping Gold Coast 88-51.
Canadian Football: Labor Day Monday is shaping up to be a doubleheader barnburner up north, as four teams are separating from the pack. Calgary beat Winnipeg on the road handily, 36-8, to go to a league-leading 7 and 2 record at the halfway mark of the season. (Winnipeg is 3-6.) Edmonton sits one game back in the west at 6-3, overpowering Toronto 38-15, knocking the Argos back to 6-3 as well. Finally, Hamilton fell to 6-3 as well, allowing Montreal to climb within one game of .500, upset by the Alouettes 26-23. Those four teams at 6-3 and above play each other on Sept 7 in clashes that will decide the leader of each division: Edmonton at Calgary, and Toronto at Hamilton. Who's the next best team, at 5-4? Why, it's the surprising Ottawa Redblacks, who sent poor Saskatchewan to its ninth straight loss today with a 35-13 walkthrough.
NCAA Football: Sure, it's "only" FCS, but the D1 season got off to a BANG of a start Saturday with the five-time defending champion North Dakota St Bison traveling to the hardest place to play in the FCS - Missoula - to play the #12 ranked Montana Grizzlies. The game was everything it should have been and more: legendary lower division coach Bob Stitt made his FCS debut at UM with his unique flying offense, and was rewarded with a last second touchdown to upset the Bison, 38-35. As Brent Musberger said on air, if that's what we have to look forward to in 2015, bring it on! Several D3 and NAIA games took place on the 27th as well, including one of local interest for us - the College of Idaho upset the #13 (NAIA) Southern Oregon visitors 40-21 to open their season: particularly exciting for a team in its second year of existence. In fact, this blog was born the same day the Yotes played their first game! So, congratulations, birthmates! Here's hoping we BOTH have that kind of success all season long!
NFL Football: Of course, everyone is zero-and-zero right now! The games this weekend weren't particularly newsworthy in a specific sense, but there were teams that looked better than others - Oakland impressed tonight (at least, their first teams did), and so did Buffalo's and Cleveland's. Tom Brady finallly one good drive, his last before the DeflateGate case is settled and any punishment is served. Michael Vick had a good outing with the Bills; Sam Bradford has looked good for the Eagles; Nick Foles for the Rams, and Alex Smith for the Chiefs. Later this week, maybe on Thursday or Friday, we'll put together our Opening Tiers for the pro and college FBS levels of American football - very broad categories, no more than three or four tiers in total, which will serve as our starting points for the Following Football predictions to come this season. THIS IS AN IMPORTANT POINT: we may have gone out on a limb and made some bold predictions as to the overall seasons the teams will have, but for GAME by GAME predictions? We will base our projections SOLELY on the work the teams are doing THIS YEAR, as much as possible, and the same goes for our "rankings". The FBS "rankings" will have something like a 32-way tie for first before we get underway, and THOSE only because there are certain things that are immutable from season to season. (Oklahoma will NOT be worse than Georgia State. I guarantee it.)
Showing posts with label North Dakota St. Show all posts
Showing posts with label North Dakota St. Show all posts
Sunday, August 30, 2015
Wednesday, August 26, 2015
Prophecies Phor Week Phour!
PROPHECIES in PHOOTBALL for the PHOURTH week of AUGUST, 2015...
AFL, round 22: TWO weeks left in the home-and-away season, and the final eight are jockeying for position. Actually, the final NINE are jockeying for EIGHT positions, as we see Geelong and Adelaide coming down to the final game next week for the number eight post!
Geelong over Collingwood by 24
GWS over Carlton by 20
Hawthorn over Brisbane by 80
Western over North Melbourne by 7 (best game of the weekend!)
Richmond over Essendon by 38
Port Adelaide over Gold Coast by 42
West Coast over Adelaide by 10 (second best game of the weekend!)
Sydney over St. Kilda by 14 if Buddy Franklin sits out (and by 28 if he plays!)
Fremantle over Melbourne by 27.
This would put Fremantle and West Coast locked into the two home qualifying finals slots, Hawthorn and Sydney close to locked in to the other two qualifying finals spots, Richmond and Western into slots five and six, potentially hosting elimination finals, North in the seven slot, and Adelaide awaiting its game with Geelong the next Saturday for the eighth spot.
CFL, round 10: Approaching the halfway point of the season, and there's starting to be some separation after a WILD first few weeks this summer! Here's Round Ten's forecast...
Hamilton over Montreal big, 50-21.
Edmonton defeats Toronto, 24-13.
Calgary over a gallant Winnipeg, 35-22.
Ottawa hold off Saskatchewan, 28-25.
THE NCAA SEASON STARTS THIS WEEKEND! Okay, only one game happens this weekend, and it's at the FCS (Division 1-AA) level, but it's a dandy! The perennial defending FCS national champion North Dakota State Bison travel to Missoula, Montana, this Saturday, to open the 2015 NCAA college football season against the traditional powerhouse Montana Grizzlies. I think this is a fantastic way to start the year! Too often the headlines go to the Alabama v Wisconsin game, or the Ohio St v Virginia Tech game that lead off the Labor Day weekend schedule. But to give the spotlight to the FCS at all is super, and then to arguably the two most notable teams in that division is intelligent beyond belief for the NCAA, who (let's face it) isn't exactly known for their brilliant decisions. (And, by the way, we're taking the defending champions NDSU by a touchdown.)
And while week three of the NFL PRE-SEASON is the most interesting and productive in terms of seeing starters play in competition, it won't make the games predictable. When the game is on the line, like it was when Seattle was down 14-13 at KC last Saturday, it was the third and fourth teams who decided the game for them. WHO is it that bets on these games?
But, there are some geographically interesting games: Jets "at" Giants...Washington at Baltimore...Indy at KC...Pittsburgh at Buffalo...Atlanta at Miami...Houston at New Orleans. Adrian Peterson has the opportunity to impress the Dallas audience in a job audition. Johnny Manziel plays at the home of Jamies Winston. Oft-doubted Jay Cutler plays against oft-doubted Andy Dalton. It's going to be an interesting weekend!
AFL, round 22: TWO weeks left in the home-and-away season, and the final eight are jockeying for position. Actually, the final NINE are jockeying for EIGHT positions, as we see Geelong and Adelaide coming down to the final game next week for the number eight post!
Geelong over Collingwood by 24
GWS over Carlton by 20
Hawthorn over Brisbane by 80
Western over North Melbourne by 7 (best game of the weekend!)
Richmond over Essendon by 38
Port Adelaide over Gold Coast by 42
West Coast over Adelaide by 10 (second best game of the weekend!)
Sydney over St. Kilda by 14 if Buddy Franklin sits out (and by 28 if he plays!)
Fremantle over Melbourne by 27.
This would put Fremantle and West Coast locked into the two home qualifying finals slots, Hawthorn and Sydney close to locked in to the other two qualifying finals spots, Richmond and Western into slots five and six, potentially hosting elimination finals, North in the seven slot, and Adelaide awaiting its game with Geelong the next Saturday for the eighth spot.
CFL, round 10: Approaching the halfway point of the season, and there's starting to be some separation after a WILD first few weeks this summer! Here's Round Ten's forecast...
Hamilton over Montreal big, 50-21.
Edmonton defeats Toronto, 24-13.
Calgary over a gallant Winnipeg, 35-22.
Ottawa hold off Saskatchewan, 28-25.
THE NCAA SEASON STARTS THIS WEEKEND! Okay, only one game happens this weekend, and it's at the FCS (Division 1-AA) level, but it's a dandy! The perennial defending FCS national champion North Dakota State Bison travel to Missoula, Montana, this Saturday, to open the 2015 NCAA college football season against the traditional powerhouse Montana Grizzlies. I think this is a fantastic way to start the year! Too often the headlines go to the Alabama v Wisconsin game, or the Ohio St v Virginia Tech game that lead off the Labor Day weekend schedule. But to give the spotlight to the FCS at all is super, and then to arguably the two most notable teams in that division is intelligent beyond belief for the NCAA, who (let's face it) isn't exactly known for their brilliant decisions. (And, by the way, we're taking the defending champions NDSU by a touchdown.)
And while week three of the NFL PRE-SEASON is the most interesting and productive in terms of seeing starters play in competition, it won't make the games predictable. When the game is on the line, like it was when Seattle was down 14-13 at KC last Saturday, it was the third and fourth teams who decided the game for them. WHO is it that bets on these games?
But, there are some geographically interesting games: Jets "at" Giants...Washington at Baltimore...Indy at KC...Pittsburgh at Buffalo...Atlanta at Miami...Houston at New Orleans. Adrian Peterson has the opportunity to impress the Dallas audience in a job audition. Johnny Manziel plays at the home of Jamies Winston. Oft-doubted Jay Cutler plays against oft-doubted Andy Dalton. It's going to be an interesting weekend!
Friday, July 3, 2015
Some FCS predictions to stir the pot...
Yesterday, we posted our predictions for the FBS conferences, and today it's time for the FCS conferences - the "Football Championship Series", which means that they have a playoff system to select their champion, unlike the FBS, who...um, now has a playoff to select their champion.
Well, at least it's still true that the FBS teams have bowl games to look forward to, unlike the FCS teams, who...well, actually, the MEAC and the SWAC have pulled out of the playoff system to have their champions meet in the, uh, Celebration Bowl. Hmmmm.
So much for differences. So, from now on, we really need to stop calling them "FBS" and "FCS", and call them what they used to be: 1-A and 1-AA. Here we go!
Missouri Valley Conference:
The strongest conference in the FCS, unquestioned. Both finalists came from the MVC last year, with North Dakota St beating Illinois St in a thrilling final. This year, expect those teams 1-2 in the conference again, with followers Northern Iowa, South Dakota St, Youngstown St, and Indiana St all making plans for the playoffs as well. Below them, only South Dakota is sure not to make the playoffs, with slots 7-8-9 filled by Southern Illinois, Western Illinois, and Missouri St.
Big Sky Conference:
The top four teams this year will probably match last year's, including repeating champion Eastern Washington on their fire-red field (so hard to look at!), with fellow playoff teams Montana, Montana St, and newcomer Idaho St. After them, Cal Poly and Northern Arizona will be fighting it out for 5th; Sacramento St should land around 7th; Weber St and Southern Utah should be able to win enough to move up towards 8th; and the bottom four teams should be Portland St, North Dakota, UC Davis, and Northern Colorado.
Southland Conference:
Third in strength, the Southland houses the biggest threat to North Dakota St's possible five-peat (you read that right: five), Sam Houston St. Behind them, Stephen F Austin University and Southeast Louisiana are the only real threats to their title aspirations in the conference, and should both make the playoffs as well. Central Arkansas should be a solid 4th, unable to defeat the three teams above them but better than the other seven. The middle of the pack will be McNeese St, Northwestern St, Abilene Christian, and Lamar; while the three bottom of the pack teams continue to be Incarnate Word, Nicholls St, and Houston Baptist.
Colonial Athletic Association:
New Hampshire and Villanova should be fighting it out for the conference title, but are probably not a threat to steal the national title from NDSU. James Madison and then Richmond will probably each put together seasons worthy of playoff selection, but fall behind UNH and the Wildcats. William and Mary is the class of the rest, followed closely by a large pack including Albany, Stony Brook, Maine, Delaware, and Towson. Elon and Rhode Island will bring up the rear.
Seventeen of the twenty-four playoff spots should go to those four conferences, still the powers of the FCS. Below them, four other conferences will look to scrape up the scraps:
Big South Conference:
As opposed to the Southland, the Big South was ruled by Coastal Carolina until they were upended by Liberty at the end of the season; this year, Coastal should return the favor and finish their undefeated league season, with Liberty's one loss to them and both heading into the post-season. They'll be followed in order by Charleston Southern, Presbyterian, Monmouth, Gardner-Webb, and first-year football team Kennesaw State!
The Southern Conference:
As opposed to the Southland OR the Big South, the Southern will be dominated by Chattanooga this year, with Samford and Wofford their sidekicks, waiting outside when the playoffs start and only their champion is invited. Behind them will be the trio of Western Carolina, The Citadel and Furman; Mercer in 7th, VMI in 8th, and first-year football team East Tennessee State in 9th! (And yes, the first game for each first year team is against each other! How perfect is that?)
Ohio Valley Conference:
Three teams should make the playoffs here, if the breaks go their direction: champion Jacksonville St, a possible top ten team, and hopefully both Eastern Illinois and Eastern Kentucky have the strength to beat everyone except J-State and possibly each other on their schedule and make the playoffs as wild cards.
Pioneer Football League:
What the Sun Belt is to FBS football, the Pioneer League is to the FCS. We guarantee that someone will win. Officially. However, the highest rated teams in the Pioneer would be the lowest rated in any of those top four conferences, and the only thing from Following Football simply renaming PFL as "the Bottom Eight" or however many we're keeping track of this year would be Savannah St, Houston Baptist, Davidson... actually, even the two new schools might be better. In the "add insult to irony" category, the league champs the first two years (San Diego in '13; Jacksonville in '14) were each ineligible to attend the playoffs last year due to indiscrepancies in financing (it's expensive to be not quite as bad as the other teams!). This year, we're hoping to see the winner (probably Jacksonville) actually get the chance to attend the FCS playoffs and get their whuppin' fair and square.
Tomorrow, we'll take a closer look at the bottom of the Pioneer as well as the other bottom feeder teams; we'll also examine the four leagues which don't take part in the Football Championship Subdivision Championships because...er...ah...well. We'll take a look anyway. (And we'll recap the 24 teams we expect to see in the December playoffs competing for the DIVISION 1-AA TITLE!...which the NCAA will insist on calling the FCS championship. Because - hypocrisy. But then, it IS the NCAA!)
Well, at least it's still true that the FBS teams have bowl games to look forward to, unlike the FCS teams, who...well, actually, the MEAC and the SWAC have pulled out of the playoff system to have their champions meet in the, uh, Celebration Bowl. Hmmmm.
So much for differences. So, from now on, we really need to stop calling them "FBS" and "FCS", and call them what they used to be: 1-A and 1-AA. Here we go!
Missouri Valley Conference:
The strongest conference in the FCS, unquestioned. Both finalists came from the MVC last year, with North Dakota St beating Illinois St in a thrilling final. This year, expect those teams 1-2 in the conference again, with followers Northern Iowa, South Dakota St, Youngstown St, and Indiana St all making plans for the playoffs as well. Below them, only South Dakota is sure not to make the playoffs, with slots 7-8-9 filled by Southern Illinois, Western Illinois, and Missouri St.
Big Sky Conference:
The top four teams this year will probably match last year's, including repeating champion Eastern Washington on their fire-red field (so hard to look at!), with fellow playoff teams Montana, Montana St, and newcomer Idaho St. After them, Cal Poly and Northern Arizona will be fighting it out for 5th; Sacramento St should land around 7th; Weber St and Southern Utah should be able to win enough to move up towards 8th; and the bottom four teams should be Portland St, North Dakota, UC Davis, and Northern Colorado.
Southland Conference:
Third in strength, the Southland houses the biggest threat to North Dakota St's possible five-peat (you read that right: five), Sam Houston St. Behind them, Stephen F Austin University and Southeast Louisiana are the only real threats to their title aspirations in the conference, and should both make the playoffs as well. Central Arkansas should be a solid 4th, unable to defeat the three teams above them but better than the other seven. The middle of the pack will be McNeese St, Northwestern St, Abilene Christian, and Lamar; while the three bottom of the pack teams continue to be Incarnate Word, Nicholls St, and Houston Baptist.
Colonial Athletic Association:
New Hampshire and Villanova should be fighting it out for the conference title, but are probably not a threat to steal the national title from NDSU. James Madison and then Richmond will probably each put together seasons worthy of playoff selection, but fall behind UNH and the Wildcats. William and Mary is the class of the rest, followed closely by a large pack including Albany, Stony Brook, Maine, Delaware, and Towson. Elon and Rhode Island will bring up the rear.
Seventeen of the twenty-four playoff spots should go to those four conferences, still the powers of the FCS. Below them, four other conferences will look to scrape up the scraps:
Big South Conference:
As opposed to the Southland, the Big South was ruled by Coastal Carolina until they were upended by Liberty at the end of the season; this year, Coastal should return the favor and finish their undefeated league season, with Liberty's one loss to them and both heading into the post-season. They'll be followed in order by Charleston Southern, Presbyterian, Monmouth, Gardner-Webb, and first-year football team Kennesaw State!
The Southern Conference:
As opposed to the Southland OR the Big South, the Southern will be dominated by Chattanooga this year, with Samford and Wofford their sidekicks, waiting outside when the playoffs start and only their champion is invited. Behind them will be the trio of Western Carolina, The Citadel and Furman; Mercer in 7th, VMI in 8th, and first-year football team East Tennessee State in 9th! (And yes, the first game for each first year team is against each other! How perfect is that?)
Ohio Valley Conference:
Three teams should make the playoffs here, if the breaks go their direction: champion Jacksonville St, a possible top ten team, and hopefully both Eastern Illinois and Eastern Kentucky have the strength to beat everyone except J-State and possibly each other on their schedule and make the playoffs as wild cards.
Pioneer Football League:
What the Sun Belt is to FBS football, the Pioneer League is to the FCS. We guarantee that someone will win. Officially. However, the highest rated teams in the Pioneer would be the lowest rated in any of those top four conferences, and the only thing from Following Football simply renaming PFL as "the Bottom Eight" or however many we're keeping track of this year would be Savannah St, Houston Baptist, Davidson... actually, even the two new schools might be better. In the "add insult to irony" category, the league champs the first two years (San Diego in '13; Jacksonville in '14) were each ineligible to attend the playoffs last year due to indiscrepancies in financing (it's expensive to be not quite as bad as the other teams!). This year, we're hoping to see the winner (probably Jacksonville) actually get the chance to attend the FCS playoffs and get their whuppin' fair and square.
Tomorrow, we'll take a closer look at the bottom of the Pioneer as well as the other bottom feeder teams; we'll also examine the four leagues which don't take part in the Football Championship Subdivision Championships because...er...ah...well. We'll take a look anyway. (And we'll recap the 24 teams we expect to see in the December playoffs competing for the DIVISION 1-AA TITLE!...which the NCAA will insist on calling the FCS championship. Because - hypocrisy. But then, it IS the NCAA!)
Saturday, January 10, 2015
Congratulations to North Dakota State...again!
It took a touchdown drive of six plays and 78 yards in 61 seconds within the last two minutes of the game, down four points, but Bison quarterback Carson Wentz took it in from five yards out to give the North Dakota State Bison their fourth straight FCS football title with a 29-27 victory over the virtually equally impressive Illinois State Redbirds.
NDSU led just about the entire game, but with touchdowns on consecutive fourth drives, the Redbirds grabbed the lead under two to go, and had about half a minute to give it one last chance, but their desperation drive ended just past midfield with an interception that set off the championship celebration.
NDSU led just about the entire game, but with touchdowns on consecutive fourth drives, the Redbirds grabbed the lead under two to go, and had about half a minute to give it one last chance, but their desperation drive ended just past midfield with an interception that set off the championship celebration.
Wednesday, January 7, 2015
This weekend's predictions...
As we hit the home stretch, there are just nine games left on the American football calendar - six of which hit this weekend!
The FCS Championship Game is in legendary Frisco, Texas this Saturday, and pits the defending champion North Dakota State Bison (14-1) against the Illinois State Redbirds (13-1).
Regardless of who wins, Northern Iowa is going to declare themselves the TRUE national champ, as they're the only team who beat BOTH of these combatants!
Vegas doesn't set lines on any college games except the FBS, but the Sagarin board has the Bison as a favorite by about 4 1/2 points. (Both teams would be all the way up into the "receiving votes" category: Illinois State falls in the #41 spot of all 252 division 1 teams (FBS and FCS combined), and NDSU actually ranks #32, above more famous teams like West Virginia, Arizona, Duke, Miami (FL) and Penn State!
Here at Following Football, we're also projecting a repeat for the three-time defenders from Fargo, but the Redbirds will be the stiffest test they've faced (UNI excluded, I suppose, although they weren't expected to be such a challenge). We'll go along with a 4.5 point line.
In the NFL, the two games on the weekend project as home team victories, but "that's why they play the game!", as they drone... New England is a 7 point favorite over Baltimore, according to Vegas and Sagarin; FF has them at about 7.5 points, adding the bye week advantage in as well. As for Seattle and Carolina, Vegas has the 'Hawks at 10.5 up, Sagarin at 13 up, and we list them at 9.5 point favorites. Regardless, it'll be an upset if either of the home teams fail to advance.
Sunday's games hold a bit more interest, although Following Football's biggest betting mantra is that the safest bet in football is the bye-week home team in the Divisional Round. Dallas heads to Green Bay in hopes of breaking that trend, but they're 6.5 point underdogs at the casinos, four-plus point 'dogs on Sagarin, and we have them as 5.5 point deficient. But on all those scales, the Cowboys are still the most likely road team to win this weekend; Dallas is the only road team among the five Tier A teams on our scale.
Meanwhile, Indianapolis goes to visit its old quarterback again, with Denver a 7 point favorite in Vegas, 4.5 on Sagarin, and a six point favorite with us. The thrill of Peyton Manning going bonkers against his old secondary becomes secondary (b-dm-cha!) to the thrill of the playoffs!
Finally, on Monday night, we get the first College Football Playoff National Championship game, sponsored by everyone on the planet who hated the BCS...don't look past the fact that neither Oregon nor Ohio State would have BEEN here under the BCS system! Certainly Florida State would have been included (defending champ, undefeated), and the top ranked school under durn near EVERY grading system except ours was Alabama. Last year, they would have played for the title, and Ohio State (59-0 winners over Wisconsin), Oregon (51-13 winners against Arizona), TCU (42-3 over Ole Miss), and Baylor (61-58 over TCU!) would have all had reasons to whine. TCU is STILL going to whine, but we're not an advocate of an eight team playoff, frankly. I got bored of the FCS playoffs after the second round - I don't think three rounds of FCS playoffs are a good idea, either. BESIDES, if all you need to do is win your Power Conference, the point of beefing up non-conference schedules goes away. FOUR TEAMS IS FINE.
ANYWAY...the Vegas line on the game is Oregon by six; Sagarin, on the other hand, favors Ohio State by half a point! At FF, we see it as a good game as well: right now, they're teams A1 and A2, which puts them in virtually a dead heat. I see Oregon as a slight favorite (which is why they're in the A1 slot), but I would NOT bet on this game! We'll call it Oregon by 1.
The FCS Championship Game is in legendary Frisco, Texas this Saturday, and pits the defending champion North Dakota State Bison (14-1) against the Illinois State Redbirds (13-1).
Regardless of who wins, Northern Iowa is going to declare themselves the TRUE national champ, as they're the only team who beat BOTH of these combatants!
Vegas doesn't set lines on any college games except the FBS, but the Sagarin board has the Bison as a favorite by about 4 1/2 points. (Both teams would be all the way up into the "receiving votes" category: Illinois State falls in the #41 spot of all 252 division 1 teams (FBS and FCS combined), and NDSU actually ranks #32, above more famous teams like West Virginia, Arizona, Duke, Miami (FL) and Penn State!
Here at Following Football, we're also projecting a repeat for the three-time defenders from Fargo, but the Redbirds will be the stiffest test they've faced (UNI excluded, I suppose, although they weren't expected to be such a challenge). We'll go along with a 4.5 point line.
In the NFL, the two games on the weekend project as home team victories, but "that's why they play the game!", as they drone... New England is a 7 point favorite over Baltimore, according to Vegas and Sagarin; FF has them at about 7.5 points, adding the bye week advantage in as well. As for Seattle and Carolina, Vegas has the 'Hawks at 10.5 up, Sagarin at 13 up, and we list them at 9.5 point favorites. Regardless, it'll be an upset if either of the home teams fail to advance.
Sunday's games hold a bit more interest, although Following Football's biggest betting mantra is that the safest bet in football is the bye-week home team in the Divisional Round. Dallas heads to Green Bay in hopes of breaking that trend, but they're 6.5 point underdogs at the casinos, four-plus point 'dogs on Sagarin, and we have them as 5.5 point deficient. But on all those scales, the Cowboys are still the most likely road team to win this weekend; Dallas is the only road team among the five Tier A teams on our scale.
Meanwhile, Indianapolis goes to visit its old quarterback again, with Denver a 7 point favorite in Vegas, 4.5 on Sagarin, and a six point favorite with us. The thrill of Peyton Manning going bonkers against his old secondary becomes secondary (b-dm-cha!) to the thrill of the playoffs!
Finally, on Monday night, we get the first College Football Playoff National Championship game, sponsored by everyone on the planet who hated the BCS...don't look past the fact that neither Oregon nor Ohio State would have BEEN here under the BCS system! Certainly Florida State would have been included (defending champ, undefeated), and the top ranked school under durn near EVERY grading system except ours was Alabama. Last year, they would have played for the title, and Ohio State (59-0 winners over Wisconsin), Oregon (51-13 winners against Arizona), TCU (42-3 over Ole Miss), and Baylor (61-58 over TCU!) would have all had reasons to whine. TCU is STILL going to whine, but we're not an advocate of an eight team playoff, frankly. I got bored of the FCS playoffs after the second round - I don't think three rounds of FCS playoffs are a good idea, either. BESIDES, if all you need to do is win your Power Conference, the point of beefing up non-conference schedules goes away. FOUR TEAMS IS FINE.
ANYWAY...the Vegas line on the game is Oregon by six; Sagarin, on the other hand, favors Ohio State by half a point! At FF, we see it as a good game as well: right now, they're teams A1 and A2, which puts them in virtually a dead heat. I see Oregon as a slight favorite (which is why they're in the A1 slot), but I would NOT bet on this game! We'll call it Oregon by 1.
Sunday, December 14, 2014
PREDICTIONS for Week 15!
Here we go! After a break-even week during the last regular season week of FBS games (although, remember that to our credit, we don't just have to be on the correct side of the line - we have to be closer to the actual result than Vegas was! Much harder to do!), we strive to call the quarter finals for the FCS playoffs and Week 15 of the NFL season...
[By the way, overall during these past five weeks since we've had the full Following Football ranking and rating system in place, we've gone 32-29 overall against Vegas' predictions, with three draws. Feelin' purdy guud 'bout thay-at!]
THURSDAY
Arizona @ St. Louis - Sagarin and FF both have Arizona winning this game (we say Cardinals by three; Sagarin ratings say 1.7); while Vegas is picking the surging Rams to win by 4.5 points. Winning team takes the point. And that winner is US! Arizona won the defensive battle 12-6, won game number 11, and proved that for this team, like other defensive powerhouses in the past (see: Ravens, Baltimore), it doesn't matter who's at quarterback.
FRIDAY
Chattanooga @ New Hampshire - we all think Chattanooga by 1-2 points. All of us were wrong - New Hampshire 35-30.
SATURDAY
Navy @ Army (actually a fairly neutral site game in Maryland) - Vegas, the Sagarin ratings, and Following Football are all picking the Naval Academy to win by 12-18 points. Navy took most of the first half to get going, so the margin of victory was only seven, 17-10. But it made for a good game!
FCS Quarterfinals - We differ with Sagarin on all of these (casinos don't set lines on FCS games)...North Dakota St over Coastal Carolina, but we say it'll be close (7 points) while the computer says it's 16.5 points NDSU's way. Cut off is halfway (below 12)...We pick Sam Houston St to beat Villanova on the road by 3; Sagarin says it's a tossup (technically, Villanova by "0.02 points"!) We'll take any SHSU victory as our point...Finally, some northwest pride: Sagarin chooses Illinois St by 8 over Eastern Washington in Cheney; we don't think they'll survive the fire-red turf and are picking EWU to win. Winner of the game or overtime, we get the point. NDSU by exactly seven! Sam Houston by exactly three! Eastern Washington by... Um, bye-bye, actually. Lost, 59-46, so that point goes to Vegas, but otherwise it's FF 3, Vegas 1!
SUNDAY
Only the games where we disagree somehow... hmmm....on most of these, we're all three pretty close (within three points)...Pittsburgh by 1-3 - by seven, 27-20...New England by 7.5 to 9 - more like 41-13, Brady!...Kansas City by 9-10 (Sagarin's a little higher), and so was reality: 31-6, KC, getting revenge for three weeks ago...Indianapolis by 7-8 - exactly right: 17-10 Colts...Baltimore by 13-14 (again, Sagarin's a bit higher on these big-spread games) Ravens by 8, 20-12...Green Bay by 5-6 - Buffalo's defense stifles GB with style, wins 21-13...Carolina by 6-7 (with Cam Newton questionable, we're surprised we still agree) - actually, TB stayed close, losing 19-17...Cincinnati/Cleveland is within a point either way (and it depends on how you count a first-time starting QB for the Browns) Cincy 30-0 over Manziel. Coaching error to start him, in our opinion...Denver by 2-4 - won by 12...Detroit by 8-9 - won by two...Seattle by 10-11 - on the nose!...Philadelphia by 3.5 to 5 - a landmark win for the Cowboys!
Two games we disagree on - we have the Giants over Washington by 3.5; Vegas says it's 7. Split the difference and say five is the tipping point - Whoops; casinos were right here; margin was eleven...and we actually think Tennessee will beat the Jets by 1; the casinos are saying New Jersey by 2. (Sagarin kinda agrees with us; Titans by "0.3"...) Winner takes the point. And that turned out to be the casinos when the Jets pulled one out of the fire with a 16-11 victory. We're all tired up! FF 3, Vegas 3! It will all depend on the Saints and Bears! Can't remember the last time we actively rooted for Chicago, but here's goes! Rah! Rah! Sis boom bah!
MONDAY
We REALLY disagree here! - The casinos argue New Orleans will win by 3; we agree with Sagarin that the Bears should be 2.5 point favorites. Winner takes the point! AARGH! Saints win. We lose, 4-3. Bah, humbug. Da Bears looked "turrible" Monday night.... Don't know what you DO about the QB situation there, with Cutler contracted through another few years.
So, in the end we have a total of seven games to wage war on - three FCS playoffs, one NFL game Thursday night, two Sunday afternoon, and one more on Monday night. Hello! My name is Inigo Montoya. You tied me on predictions last week. Prepare to die...
[By the way, overall during these past five weeks since we've had the full Following Football ranking and rating system in place, we've gone 32-29 overall against Vegas' predictions, with three draws. Feelin' purdy guud 'bout thay-at!]
THURSDAY
Arizona @ St. Louis - Sagarin and FF both have Arizona winning this game (we say Cardinals by three; Sagarin ratings say 1.7); while Vegas is picking the surging Rams to win by 4.5 points. Winning team takes the point. And that winner is US! Arizona won the defensive battle 12-6, won game number 11, and proved that for this team, like other defensive powerhouses in the past (see: Ravens, Baltimore), it doesn't matter who's at quarterback.
FRIDAY
Chattanooga @ New Hampshire - we all think Chattanooga by 1-2 points. All of us were wrong - New Hampshire 35-30.
SATURDAY
Navy @ Army (actually a fairly neutral site game in Maryland) - Vegas, the Sagarin ratings, and Following Football are all picking the Naval Academy to win by 12-18 points. Navy took most of the first half to get going, so the margin of victory was only seven, 17-10. But it made for a good game!
FCS Quarterfinals - We differ with Sagarin on all of these (casinos don't set lines on FCS games)...North Dakota St over Coastal Carolina, but we say it'll be close (7 points) while the computer says it's 16.5 points NDSU's way. Cut off is halfway (below 12)...We pick Sam Houston St to beat Villanova on the road by 3; Sagarin says it's a tossup (technically, Villanova by "0.02 points"!) We'll take any SHSU victory as our point...Finally, some northwest pride: Sagarin chooses Illinois St by 8 over Eastern Washington in Cheney; we don't think they'll survive the fire-red turf and are picking EWU to win. Winner of the game or overtime, we get the point. NDSU by exactly seven! Sam Houston by exactly three! Eastern Washington by... Um, bye-bye, actually. Lost, 59-46, so that point goes to Vegas, but otherwise it's FF 3, Vegas 1!
SUNDAY
Only the games where we disagree somehow... hmmm....on most of these, we're all three pretty close (within three points)...Pittsburgh by 1-3 - by seven, 27-20...New England by 7.5 to 9 - more like 41-13, Brady!...Kansas City by 9-10 (Sagarin's a little higher), and so was reality: 31-6, KC, getting revenge for three weeks ago...Indianapolis by 7-8 - exactly right: 17-10 Colts...Baltimore by 13-14 (again, Sagarin's a bit higher on these big-spread games) Ravens by 8, 20-12...Green Bay by 5-6 - Buffalo's defense stifles GB with style, wins 21-13...Carolina by 6-7 (with Cam Newton questionable, we're surprised we still agree) - actually, TB stayed close, losing 19-17...Cincinnati/Cleveland is within a point either way (and it depends on how you count a first-time starting QB for the Browns) Cincy 30-0 over Manziel. Coaching error to start him, in our opinion...Denver by 2-4 - won by 12...Detroit by 8-9 - won by two...Seattle by 10-11 - on the nose!...Philadelphia by 3.5 to 5 - a landmark win for the Cowboys!
Two games we disagree on - we have the Giants over Washington by 3.5; Vegas says it's 7. Split the difference and say five is the tipping point - Whoops; casinos were right here; margin was eleven...and we actually think Tennessee will beat the Jets by 1; the casinos are saying New Jersey by 2. (Sagarin kinda agrees with us; Titans by "0.3"...) Winner takes the point. And that turned out to be the casinos when the Jets pulled one out of the fire with a 16-11 victory. We're all tired up! FF 3, Vegas 3! It will all depend on the Saints and Bears! Can't remember the last time we actively rooted for Chicago, but here's goes! Rah! Rah! Sis boom bah!
MONDAY
We REALLY disagree here! - The casinos argue New Orleans will win by 3; we agree with Sagarin that the Bears should be 2.5 point favorites. Winner takes the point! AARGH! Saints win. We lose, 4-3. Bah, humbug. Da Bears looked "turrible" Monday night.... Don't know what you DO about the QB situation there, with Cutler contracted through another few years.
So, in the end we have a total of seven games to wage war on - three FCS playoffs, one NFL game Thursday night, two Sunday afternoon, and one more on Monday night. Hello! My name is Inigo Montoya. You tied me on predictions last week. Prepare to die...
Saturday, December 13, 2014
Following today's Football...
As the final game of 774 regular season FBS contests gets underway, we'll follow today's Army/Navy game as well as the lower division playoff games...
Last night, New Hampshire managed to oust Chattanooga 35-30 despite being outgained by two hundred yards and outplayed for the first 2 1/2 quarters - but that's what a number one team does. Today, defenders North Dakota St overcame Coastal Carolina 39-32, in a surprisingly competitive game, and currently Sam Houston St and Villanova are waging a back and forth war - SHSU kicks a field goal, Villanova scores a TD, and now the Bearcats take the lead BACK with a TD drive of their own to lead, 34-31. UPDATE: The Wildcats were forced into trying and missing a tying 51 yard field goal; the Bearkats held on to win, 34-31.
Meanwhile, Army leads Navy 7-0, after a jailbreak blocked punt converted for a touchdown, with the Black Knights controlling the line of scrimmage on both offense and defense...until a fourth down conversion of theirs is negated by a LATE time out from the sideline, followed by a Navy stop and turnover, closely followed by a TD pass to tie the game at seven. Controversial time out changes the whole game!
UPDATE: As expected, the two Division III powerhouses are cruising to what we believe is their NINTH consecutive championship meeting! Mount Union routed previously 12-0 Wellesley 70-0 after three quarters, before the fourth string allowed three garbage time TDs. Currently, Wisconsin-Whitewater leads 14-0 early in the second quarter against 11-1 west coast power Linfield.
UPDATE: Linfield has come back to tie UW Whitewater at 14 going into the fourth quarter, and after the Naval Academy pushed out to a dominating 17-7 lead, Army's Daniel Grochkowski skimmed through a field goal from 52 to close within a TD with 1:51 to go!
UPDATE: Illinois St leads Eastern Washington 31-20, and in twelve possessions the two teams have scored on NINE of them, with EWU's initial punt, their subsequent fumble, and ISU's kneel to end the first half being the only non-scoring drives of the game so far as of the mid third quarter.
Meanwhile, Navy beat Army 17-10 for their 13th consecutive win. CBS's Allie LaForge interviewed Navy coach Ken Niumatololo after the game, and asked the coach about the key time out he called in the second quarter. Coach said, "If you asked me who told me to call that time out, you wouldn't believe me." She asked anyway, and his answer was, "The Man Upstairs." GOOD for YOU, Coach!
UPDATE: Illinois St can't be stopped! In their ten possessions AT Eastern Washington, on the freaky red field, they've gone as follows so far: FG, TD, TD, TD, TD, end of half, TD, TD,TD, TD... (To be continued.) They lead 52-27 early in the fourth. ...and at game's end, they won by the score of 59-46. In all, there were 24 possessions: 17 ended in scores (14 TDs and 3FGs), 3 EWU turnovers (fumble & 2 interceptions), two end of half kneel downs by ISU, a failed 4th down late by the winners they didn't need, and one lonely punt, just two minutes into the game. Division III update: UW-Whitewater went on to win, 20-14, over Linfield, so we get rematch number nine or so for the D3 title next weekend in Salem, VA: Mount Union v. UW-Whitewater. In D2, Minnesota St is waiting for the winner of tonight's Colorado St-Pueblo/West Georgia game to set up next Saturday's Division II title tilt.
(SO, as far as our prognostication battle goes with the professionals, Illinois St kept us from winning all four games up to this point: in fact, we hit Sam Houston by 3 and North Dakota St by 7 on the nose, and Arizona by 6 was extremely close to perfect. And...well, we really had irrational faith in the Big Sky, I guess. Three turnovers to none will do it, though. Anyway, it's 3-1 Following Football, with three NFL games left to decide the weekly winner...and we just need to be right once to win the weekend!)
Last night, New Hampshire managed to oust Chattanooga 35-30 despite being outgained by two hundred yards and outplayed for the first 2 1/2 quarters - but that's what a number one team does. Today, defenders North Dakota St overcame Coastal Carolina 39-32, in a surprisingly competitive game, and currently Sam Houston St and Villanova are waging a back and forth war - SHSU kicks a field goal, Villanova scores a TD, and now the Bearcats take the lead BACK with a TD drive of their own to lead, 34-31. UPDATE: The Wildcats were forced into trying and missing a tying 51 yard field goal; the Bearkats held on to win, 34-31.
Meanwhile, Army leads Navy 7-0, after a jailbreak blocked punt converted for a touchdown, with the Black Knights controlling the line of scrimmage on both offense and defense...until a fourth down conversion of theirs is negated by a LATE time out from the sideline, followed by a Navy stop and turnover, closely followed by a TD pass to tie the game at seven. Controversial time out changes the whole game!
UPDATE: As expected, the two Division III powerhouses are cruising to what we believe is their NINTH consecutive championship meeting! Mount Union routed previously 12-0 Wellesley 70-0 after three quarters, before the fourth string allowed three garbage time TDs. Currently, Wisconsin-Whitewater leads 14-0 early in the second quarter against 11-1 west coast power Linfield.
UPDATE: Linfield has come back to tie UW Whitewater at 14 going into the fourth quarter, and after the Naval Academy pushed out to a dominating 17-7 lead, Army's Daniel Grochkowski skimmed through a field goal from 52 to close within a TD with 1:51 to go!
UPDATE: Illinois St leads Eastern Washington 31-20, and in twelve possessions the two teams have scored on NINE of them, with EWU's initial punt, their subsequent fumble, and ISU's kneel to end the first half being the only non-scoring drives of the game so far as of the mid third quarter.
Meanwhile, Navy beat Army 17-10 for their 13th consecutive win. CBS's Allie LaForge interviewed Navy coach Ken Niumatololo after the game, and asked the coach about the key time out he called in the second quarter. Coach said, "If you asked me who told me to call that time out, you wouldn't believe me." She asked anyway, and his answer was, "The Man Upstairs." GOOD for YOU, Coach!
UPDATE: Illinois St can't be stopped! In their ten possessions AT Eastern Washington, on the freaky red field, they've gone as follows so far: FG, TD, TD, TD, TD, end of half, TD, TD,TD, TD... (To be continued.) They lead 52-27 early in the fourth. ...and at game's end, they won by the score of 59-46. In all, there were 24 possessions: 17 ended in scores (14 TDs and 3FGs), 3 EWU turnovers (fumble & 2 interceptions), two end of half kneel downs by ISU, a failed 4th down late by the winners they didn't need, and one lonely punt, just two minutes into the game. Division III update: UW-Whitewater went on to win, 20-14, over Linfield, so we get rematch number nine or so for the D3 title next weekend in Salem, VA: Mount Union v. UW-Whitewater. In D2, Minnesota St is waiting for the winner of tonight's Colorado St-Pueblo/West Georgia game to set up next Saturday's Division II title tilt.
(SO, as far as our prognostication battle goes with the professionals, Illinois St kept us from winning all four games up to this point: in fact, we hit Sam Houston by 3 and North Dakota St by 7 on the nose, and Arizona by 6 was extremely close to perfect. And...well, we really had irrational faith in the Big Sky, I guess. Three turnovers to none will do it, though. Anyway, it's 3-1 Following Football, with three NFL games left to decide the weekly winner...and we just need to be right once to win the weekend!)
Saturday, December 6, 2014
Thoughts from championship Saturday....
As the game between TCU and Iowa St is reaching its 55-3 conclusion, with the Horned Frogs having made their statement to the playoff committee, two tweets retweeted by TCU reporter Stefan Stevenson caught our eye. The first remarks on the ethics of coach Gary Patterson:
- #Classystylepoints "@calexmendez: TCU has 55 points, kneeled on a fourth-and-goal at the 6.... with 4:05 to go."
- Immediately thereafter, the opposing viewpoint, or at least ONE opposing thought, was presented:
Reply
Retweet
Favorite- Yep. "@byjoelanderson: If I played for Iowa State, I'd be way more offended that they treated us like a Make-A-Wish squad."
As we discussed Tuesday night, the committee has already made their decision, and 55-3 isn't going to give them any reason to change their minds... TCU will be in the playoff.
Congratulations to the SMU Mustangs! After the season from hell, in which their coach quit on them, two games in; in which game after game, their opponents have dominated them on both sides of the ball; in which, on the one occasion that they looked like should win, South Florida drove the field for a touchdown, made them punt, and then finished the game with a ridiculous 21-play, eight-minute, three 4th down conversion drive that ended with a six yard touchdown pass on fourth down with six seconds to play to win 14-13...after all of that, they finally came up with a fourth quarter score to break a 20-all tie and defeat conference foe Connecticut 27-20. They end the season 1-11, break a thirteen game losing streak, and prevent the 2014 season from having a winless season this year.
Think about this: The 1-11 SMU Mustangs will enter the 2015 season on a longer winning streak than THREE of the four playoff teams will!
Good on you, Oklahoma St! On a five-game losing streak, down 35-21 to their Bedlam rivals Oklahoma, it would have been easy and understandable to simply let down and give in. Instead, they scored a touchdown, stopped the Sooners, and ran a punt return back to tie the game and send it on to overtime, where they just kicked a field goal to not only upset their rivals but become bowl eligible.
The FCS playoffs are in the Round of Sixteen, and besides the Sam Houston St upset of Jacksonville St (that we predicted, thank you!), the home teams have rolled. Except for the defending champs, North Dakota St, who hosted their cross-border rivals from South Dakota St. The game was neck and neck, and SDSU moved ahead 24-20 with just over three minutes to go. The Bison did what all great teams do - they showed their greatness by driving the length of the field when they HAD to, scored that must-have touchdown with a perfect pass with fifty-four seconds to go, and intercepted the first pass SDSU threw to seal the victory.
Hard to argue with the shows that three of the four CFP top four teams put on over the last twenty-four hours: we talked about TCU's victory, but Alabama and Oregon both won conference championships at neutral sites over division title winners with disarming ease. Last night, the Ducks avenged their only loss by annihilating Arizona 51-13, with Marcus Mariota clinching his impending Heisman Trophy win with five TDs with his arm and his legs. This afternoon, the Crimson Tide rolled over Missouri, 42-13, with Blake Sims confirming his coaches' faith in him when they surprised folks by naming him the starter. Now, it's up to defending champion Florida St to complete the picture tonight by beating the teams they beat exactly two years ago to start their 28-game winning streak, the Georgia Tech. If they win, the committee WILL NOT remove them from the playoffs. It just won't happen! But if they LOSE, they're gone. Period. Then,...who? Ohio St? Baylor? Both have tough games (Wisconsin and Kansas St, respectively) that they'll have to win to give the committee the opportunity to move them up into the four-spot.
Monday, November 17, 2014
Looking at the new FOLLOWING FOOTBALL tier rankings...
...our Top 4 are Alabama, Mississippi St, Florida St, and Oregon. As we noted Saturday, we're not likely to punish a team for losing by the amount expected (the Vegas spread was seven; they lost by five), especially on the road against another Tier A school. Sure, we'll move the Tide above them, but was the Seminoles' performance against an unranked, Tier G Miami squad more impressive? No. Certainly, we're much less impressed with TCU's debacle at Kansas than anything the Bulldogs did in Tuscaloosa. If you thought they'd lose at Alabama, and they do, no worse than expected - how can you punish that? To us, this is a classic case of the loss being more impressive than TCU's win.
...We made some adjustments based on some external rankings this week, in particular Peter Wolfe and Jeff Sagarin's work, but also looking through the Massey Index we linked to last week as well. If there were virtual ties within a tier, for example, we'd often turn to those sources for a second opinion (sorting out the middle of the ACC North, for example), but on a few occasions a consensus of opinions different from ours made us re-evaluate our rankings. The most blatant example was Western Kentucky, whom we had within three tiers of the bottom all year but whom every list we consulted had up in the 80's or so. Given their recent body of work (they're up to .500 now) and those opinions, we concurred and moved them up to tier O, number 88 on your radio dial...
...Looking at the list with conferences attached (yes, that's what the lower case letters after the overall record are!), a fairly clear pattern emerges: The SEC gets the benefit of the doubt if there's an extra loss on the record, particularly the West, over the closely regarded Pac-12, Big-12, and Big-10. The ACC is probably not quite as well regarded, or schools like Duke would be higher. Then there's a bit of a gap, because it takes about a two-game better record for a school from the Mountain West or the old Big East, the AAC, to match a school from one of the Power 5. (#37 is Maryland at 6-4; #38 is Boise St at 8-2.) Then, you drop down to the MAC, Conference USA, and the Sun Belt, all of whom lie essentially in a second division as it is (and the MW/AAC are fighting to stay above that). That's why Marshall sits in #25 with a 10-0 record: the schools in that "division" can't run with the "big boys" because they can't play the big boys. Rankings are determined first and foremost by one simple question: if these two teams played on a neutral field, who would win? The winner is ranked higher, the loser lower. Marshall's beaten everyone it's played...but would it beat any of the 24 teams above it? Arizona? Duke? Notre Dame? Oklahoma? It might even be generous to say that they'd beat the teams immediately below it...Utah? Clemson? Louisville? Miami-FL? We'd love to see them against West Virginia, given their proximity!
...In fact, here's an interesting tidbit: The "strength of schedule" parameter for FCS defending champion North Dakota St is actually HIGHER than that of FBS Marshall! It's hard to argue that they're playing opponents that are comparable to what even Florida St is facing, much less the SEC!
...These tiers make for some strange bedfellows! Seeing Texas moving all the way up to #40, right below...East Carolina? And finding 6-4 Nevada at #59, right between North Carolina St (6-5) and North Carolina (5-5)!
...Towards the bottom, in our attempt to keep our six-team tiers consistent (for a change, right?), we ended up with a "Bottom Two" - Georgia St and SMU. Despite the Mustangs' winless record, Georgia St is rated below them in many of the computer systems we looked through. Nevertheless, only a true #128 could lose the game Saturday the way they lost it - giving up a near-legendary twenty-one play drive over the course of the last six minutes of the game, including three fourth down conversions with the game on the line, and letting the opponent you've held scoreless for 3 1/2 quarters score the touchdown they had to score in the last six seconds to win. Amazing. (Admittedly, Idaho is close, though - losing to Tier T Troy, at home, by 17 points, when they'd been favored going in. That's impressive.)
...We made some adjustments based on some external rankings this week, in particular Peter Wolfe and Jeff Sagarin's work, but also looking through the Massey Index we linked to last week as well. If there were virtual ties within a tier, for example, we'd often turn to those sources for a second opinion (sorting out the middle of the ACC North, for example), but on a few occasions a consensus of opinions different from ours made us re-evaluate our rankings. The most blatant example was Western Kentucky, whom we had within three tiers of the bottom all year but whom every list we consulted had up in the 80's or so. Given their recent body of work (they're up to .500 now) and those opinions, we concurred and moved them up to tier O, number 88 on your radio dial...
...Looking at the list with conferences attached (yes, that's what the lower case letters after the overall record are!), a fairly clear pattern emerges: The SEC gets the benefit of the doubt if there's an extra loss on the record, particularly the West, over the closely regarded Pac-12, Big-12, and Big-10. The ACC is probably not quite as well regarded, or schools like Duke would be higher. Then there's a bit of a gap, because it takes about a two-game better record for a school from the Mountain West or the old Big East, the AAC, to match a school from one of the Power 5. (#37 is Maryland at 6-4; #38 is Boise St at 8-2.) Then, you drop down to the MAC, Conference USA, and the Sun Belt, all of whom lie essentially in a second division as it is (and the MW/AAC are fighting to stay above that). That's why Marshall sits in #25 with a 10-0 record: the schools in that "division" can't run with the "big boys" because they can't play the big boys. Rankings are determined first and foremost by one simple question: if these two teams played on a neutral field, who would win? The winner is ranked higher, the loser lower. Marshall's beaten everyone it's played...but would it beat any of the 24 teams above it? Arizona? Duke? Notre Dame? Oklahoma? It might even be generous to say that they'd beat the teams immediately below it...Utah? Clemson? Louisville? Miami-FL? We'd love to see them against West Virginia, given their proximity!
...In fact, here's an interesting tidbit: The "strength of schedule" parameter for FCS defending champion North Dakota St is actually HIGHER than that of FBS Marshall! It's hard to argue that they're playing opponents that are comparable to what even Florida St is facing, much less the SEC!
...These tiers make for some strange bedfellows! Seeing Texas moving all the way up to #40, right below...East Carolina? And finding 6-4 Nevada at #59, right between North Carolina St (6-5) and North Carolina (5-5)!
...Towards the bottom, in our attempt to keep our six-team tiers consistent (for a change, right?), we ended up with a "Bottom Two" - Georgia St and SMU. Despite the Mustangs' winless record, Georgia St is rated below them in many of the computer systems we looked through. Nevertheless, only a true #128 could lose the game Saturday the way they lost it - giving up a near-legendary twenty-one play drive over the course of the last six minutes of the game, including three fourth down conversions with the game on the line, and letting the opponent you've held scoreless for 3 1/2 quarters score the touchdown they had to score in the last six seconds to win. Amazing. (Admittedly, Idaho is close, though - losing to Tier T Troy, at home, by 17 points, when they'd been favored going in. That's impressive.)
Sunday, November 16, 2014
As for the FCS games of interest yesterday,
...let's start with our usual topic of intrigue, really bad teams. Of course, if you're in the Ivy League, you're allowed to be good, bad, or indifferent about football - you're too busy getting ready to run our country in the coming years.
But in Cornell @ Columbia, two winless teams squared off. Sagarin had this projected as a 3-point Cornell win, and the Big Red did win, 30-27. But the how and why are hysterical: each team scored four touchdowns, but Cornell blocked the extra point on Columbia's last TD and ran it back for their own two point conversion, making it 27-23 at the time and setting the stage for their own game-winning drive in the fourth quarter.
As for the three other bottom-feeders we follow (three?), Rhode Island actually put up a fight at Stony Brook, losing 14-35. But good ol' Savannah St managed zero points, negative 8 yards rushing, and just 165 yards of total offense in the entire game in losing to North Carolina A&T 34-0. In the true tradition of a body-bag school, Savannah goes to BYU next week, where the early Sagarin ratings list them as potentially a 54-point underdog. And history says they'll lie down and take their beating appropriately.
Who's the third bottom-feeder? In two of those ratings that we linked you to earlier this week, we noticed that there's a team below both URI and Savannah St: Davidson, Stephen Curry's alma mater, apparently doesn't play football as well as they do hoops. They have a record of 1-10 this year, having lost nine straight against FCS opponents and one more to Catawba, who we think is D2. Their one victory was to "College of Faith-Charleston", for whom we cannot even find a listing at any level of NCAA or NAIA, 56-0.
Anyway, playing Marist yesterday, Davidson was down 38-0 with a minute to go in the third, having produced a total of two first downs and 58 yards of offense. As Marist started their mass substitutions, Davidson finally produced a twelve-play, TWO yard drive (that required getting to a 3rd down on the Marist 16 and then ending fourth down at midfield!), which was finally followed by a 13-play drive in the fourth against the last-stringers that scored a late TD to make the score 38-7. It'd be fun to watch them play Savannah St...
In higher-quality news, North Dakota St started a new winning streak, beating Missouri St 45-10, while their vanquisher Northern Iowa also won, beating Southern Illinois 40-21. And out in the Big Sky conference, we were happy to see alma mater Sacramento St win 48-41 at home against Portland St! Montana St held off Idaho St at home 44-39, and Montana beat Southern Utah 35-17.
But in Cornell @ Columbia, two winless teams squared off. Sagarin had this projected as a 3-point Cornell win, and the Big Red did win, 30-27. But the how and why are hysterical: each team scored four touchdowns, but Cornell blocked the extra point on Columbia's last TD and ran it back for their own two point conversion, making it 27-23 at the time and setting the stage for their own game-winning drive in the fourth quarter.
As for the three other bottom-feeders we follow (three?), Rhode Island actually put up a fight at Stony Brook, losing 14-35. But good ol' Savannah St managed zero points, negative 8 yards rushing, and just 165 yards of total offense in the entire game in losing to North Carolina A&T 34-0. In the true tradition of a body-bag school, Savannah goes to BYU next week, where the early Sagarin ratings list them as potentially a 54-point underdog. And history says they'll lie down and take their beating appropriately.
Who's the third bottom-feeder? In two of those ratings that we linked you to earlier this week, we noticed that there's a team below both URI and Savannah St: Davidson, Stephen Curry's alma mater, apparently doesn't play football as well as they do hoops. They have a record of 1-10 this year, having lost nine straight against FCS opponents and one more to Catawba, who we think is D2. Their one victory was to "College of Faith-Charleston", for whom we cannot even find a listing at any level of NCAA or NAIA, 56-0.
Anyway, playing Marist yesterday, Davidson was down 38-0 with a minute to go in the third, having produced a total of two first downs and 58 yards of offense. As Marist started their mass substitutions, Davidson finally produced a twelve-play, TWO yard drive (that required getting to a 3rd down on the Marist 16 and then ending fourth down at midfield!), which was finally followed by a 13-play drive in the fourth against the last-stringers that scored a late TD to make the score 38-7. It'd be fun to watch them play Savannah St...
In higher-quality news, North Dakota St started a new winning streak, beating Missouri St 45-10, while their vanquisher Northern Iowa also won, beating Southern Illinois 40-21. And out in the Big Sky conference, we were happy to see alma mater Sacramento St win 48-41 at home against Portland St! Montana St held off Idaho St at home 44-39, and Montana beat Southern Utah 35-17.
Sunday, November 9, 2014
So much for that 33-game winning streak!
The defending FCS champion North Dakota St Bison didn't just lose yesterday, they were almost shut out by division rival Northern Iowa, 23-3.
The Bison's 33 game winning streak, encompassing three national championships, was the longest in FCS history. But against the 19th ranked Panthers, they were outgained 306-175, doubled up in first downs, 16-8, went one for fourteen in 3rd down conversions, rushed 28 times and gained only 43 yards, and (with the exception of a turnover on the UNI 12, when they scored their FG) had the following starting field positions, ALL in their own territory: the 25, the 3, the 10, 37, 34, 20, 25, 42, 18, the 8, and the 20.
On the far end of the spectrum, the two 0-9 teams we follow went to 0-10 yesterday: Rhode Island fell to 8-1 New Hampshire 41-14, while Savannah St lost 51-21 to visiting Howard University. Those streaks now extend to 14 and 19, respectively.
In the Big Sky conference, Eastern Washington beat traditional champ Montana 36-28 on the red field in Cheney to remain in control of the conference title, although four teams share the lead in the loss column: EWU, Northern Arizona, Montana St, and surprising Idaho St, winners against Cal Poly SLO yesterday at home to get to 7-3. In 2013, they went 3-9, the three wins coming against Northern Colorado and two D2 teams; they finished the season on a six-game losing streak and having failed nine of their last ten excursions. Now, they're two games from a playoff berth!
The Bison's 33 game winning streak, encompassing three national championships, was the longest in FCS history. But against the 19th ranked Panthers, they were outgained 306-175, doubled up in first downs, 16-8, went one for fourteen in 3rd down conversions, rushed 28 times and gained only 43 yards, and (with the exception of a turnover on the UNI 12, when they scored their FG) had the following starting field positions, ALL in their own territory: the 25, the 3, the 10, 37, 34, 20, 25, 42, 18, the 8, and the 20.
On the far end of the spectrum, the two 0-9 teams we follow went to 0-10 yesterday: Rhode Island fell to 8-1 New Hampshire 41-14, while Savannah St lost 51-21 to visiting Howard University. Those streaks now extend to 14 and 19, respectively.
In the Big Sky conference, Eastern Washington beat traditional champ Montana 36-28 on the red field in Cheney to remain in control of the conference title, although four teams share the lead in the loss column: EWU, Northern Arizona, Montana St, and surprising Idaho St, winners against Cal Poly SLO yesterday at home to get to 7-3. In 2013, they went 3-9, the three wins coming against Northern Colorado and two D2 teams; they finished the season on a six-game losing streak and having failed nine of their last ten excursions. Now, they're two games from a playoff berth!
Saturday, November 1, 2014
FCS Week 9 in review
Truth be told, we only do a partial review of the FCS level - basically, as reader interest dictates, or ours! - so if you're interested in a team we don't discuss, let us know!
So, North Dakota St won number 33 in a row, after a slight scare (down three at the half) against South Dakota St, 37-17; meanwhile, Rhode Island dropped its 13th straight and Savannah St its 18th in a row...
And in the Big Sky, Eastern Washington annihilated North Dakota 54-3; Cal Poly knocked off previous leaders Montana St 35-27, and Idaho St kept up their turnaround season by winning at Portland St, 31-13.
Finally, Harvard beat Dartmouth 23-12 in the battle of Ivy League unbeatens today!
So, North Dakota St won number 33 in a row, after a slight scare (down three at the half) against South Dakota St, 37-17; meanwhile, Rhode Island dropped its 13th straight and Savannah St its 18th in a row...
And in the Big Sky, Eastern Washington annihilated North Dakota 54-3; Cal Poly knocked off previous leaders Montana St 35-27, and Idaho St kept up their turnaround season by winning at Portland St, 31-13.
Finally, Harvard beat Dartmouth 23-12 in the battle of Ivy League unbeatens today!
Week 9 upset alerts...and "as expected" alerts!,
Start in Division 1A - excuse us: "FCS"! - where defending champion North Dakota St trails 10-6 at the half to South Dakota St, which would be a huge upset, especially on the Bison's home field! What are NOT upsets are losses by Rhode Island (#13 in a row, falling to 0-9 this season by losing 28-13 at Delaware) and our personal favorite, Savannah St, who fell 59-7 at South Carolina St to extend its losing streak to eighteen, nine last year and nine this.
As for the FBS ranks, as usual, some of the "upsets" we called in advance, and some we missed entirely:
Duke took two OTs to beat Pitt, who helped them out by missing a 26 yarder on the last play of regulation. We favored them, though Vegas had it the other way. Two OTs means we were half right.
East Carolina lost both their game and their favored underdog status today...TCU trails West Virginia by thirteen late in the third...and at the World's Largest Cocktail Party, the best drinks are being served on the Florida side of the parking lot, leading Georgia 24-7 in the third.
As for the FBS ranks, as usual, some of the "upsets" we called in advance, and some we missed entirely:
Duke took two OTs to beat Pitt, who helped them out by missing a 26 yarder on the last play of regulation. We favored them, though Vegas had it the other way. Two OTs means we were half right.
East Carolina lost both their game and their favored underdog status today...TCU trails West Virginia by thirteen late in the third...and at the World's Largest Cocktail Party, the best drinks are being served on the Florida side of the parking lot, leading Georgia 24-7 in the third.
Sunday, October 26, 2014
Loose ends from Week 8...
Savannah St fell to 0-8 yesterday, losing at North Carolina Central 42-21. They have now lost seventeen in a row...
On the flip side, the defending FCS champion North Dakota St Bison won 47-7 over South Dakota to move to 8-0, and consecutive win number 32...
The Arizona Cardinals had two 75+ yard pass plays for touchdowns, the last under two minutes to go, to beat the Philadelphia Eagles 24-20. What were the odds of the Cards being two full games up on Seattle AND San Francisco after Week 8?...
Have you seen the standings in the AFC North? All four teams are within a half-game of each other: Cincinnati at 4-2-1, Pittsburgh and Baltimore at 5-3, and Cleveland at 4-3!...
Conversely, everyone in the NFC South is below .500 - Carolina leads at 3-4-1, the Saints are at 2-4 pending tonight's game, Atlanta fell to 2-6 after leading 21-0 at halftime, and Jacksonville is...Jacksonville...
TCU scored 82 points on Texas Tech yesterday, a real FBS school. This was the highest point total of the year, surpassing North Texas' defeat of Nicholls St 77-3, which we argue SHOULD NOT COUNT because it was against an FCS team (never mind that it was an 0-9 school who lost by two TDs to a Division II team). So, for that reason, glad TCU set the new season high. (If those games don't count towards your win total for bowl games, they shouldn't count for anything else, either!)...
That wasn't the only high number put up Saturday - Georgia Southern put 69 on Georgia St (69-31), Western Kentucky beat Old Dominion 66-51, and Tier C Arizona took out Washington St 59-37, only after having shifted into low gear for the fourth quarter...
And in the FCS, not only did Alcorn St ruin the last game at Blackshaw Field for Prairie View by scoring 77 on them (winning 77-48), but Murray St laid a woodshed whoop'n on Kentucky Wesleyen 86-29... and it should've been worse, except they hung onto the ball for the last seven minutes, finishing the game by kneeling on the KW seven yard line...
Michigan St scored a last minute TD against Michigan to stretch their winning margin to 35-11. Why? Because the Wolverine players were jerks. Apparently, they decided to 'stake' the center Spartan when they came out onto the field, always a wise move against your cross-state rival when they're 7-1 and you're falling apart at the seams. Our early candidate for stupid jerk move of the year...
In the pros, Geno Smith of the New York Jets posted one of the saddest stat lines ever before being pulled for Michael Vick (who didn't help much, either, as Buffalo creamed them): 2 for 8, for five yards, w 3 interceptions. A rating of 0.0; perfection!
On the flip side, having already lauded Ben Roethlisberger's day for the Steelers, let's check the great Tom Brady's line for the New England Patriots: 30-35 for 354 yards, five TDs and no picks. Pats beat the Bears 51-23.
On the flip side, the defending FCS champion North Dakota St Bison won 47-7 over South Dakota to move to 8-0, and consecutive win number 32...
The Arizona Cardinals had two 75+ yard pass plays for touchdowns, the last under two minutes to go, to beat the Philadelphia Eagles 24-20. What were the odds of the Cards being two full games up on Seattle AND San Francisco after Week 8?...
Have you seen the standings in the AFC North? All four teams are within a half-game of each other: Cincinnati at 4-2-1, Pittsburgh and Baltimore at 5-3, and Cleveland at 4-3!...
Conversely, everyone in the NFC South is below .500 - Carolina leads at 3-4-1, the Saints are at 2-4 pending tonight's game, Atlanta fell to 2-6 after leading 21-0 at halftime, and Jacksonville is...Jacksonville...
TCU scored 82 points on Texas Tech yesterday, a real FBS school. This was the highest point total of the year, surpassing North Texas' defeat of Nicholls St 77-3, which we argue SHOULD NOT COUNT because it was against an FCS team (never mind that it was an 0-9 school who lost by two TDs to a Division II team). So, for that reason, glad TCU set the new season high. (If those games don't count towards your win total for bowl games, they shouldn't count for anything else, either!)...
That wasn't the only high number put up Saturday - Georgia Southern put 69 on Georgia St (69-31), Western Kentucky beat Old Dominion 66-51, and Tier C Arizona took out Washington St 59-37, only after having shifted into low gear for the fourth quarter...
And in the FCS, not only did Alcorn St ruin the last game at Blackshaw Field for Prairie View by scoring 77 on them (winning 77-48), but Murray St laid a woodshed whoop'n on Kentucky Wesleyen 86-29... and it should've been worse, except they hung onto the ball for the last seven minutes, finishing the game by kneeling on the KW seven yard line...
Michigan St scored a last minute TD against Michigan to stretch their winning margin to 35-11. Why? Because the Wolverine players were jerks. Apparently, they decided to 'stake' the center Spartan when they came out onto the field, always a wise move against your cross-state rival when they're 7-1 and you're falling apart at the seams. Our early candidate for stupid jerk move of the year...
In the pros, Geno Smith of the New York Jets posted one of the saddest stat lines ever before being pulled for Michael Vick (who didn't help much, either, as Buffalo creamed them): 2 for 8, for five yards, w 3 interceptions. A rating of 0.0; perfection!
On the flip side, having already lauded Ben Roethlisberger's day for the Steelers, let's check the great Tom Brady's line for the New England Patriots: 30-35 for 354 yards, five TDs and no picks. Pats beat the Bears 51-23.
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