Update: North of the Equator

>>> What's the over/under on Johnny Manziel? I mean, in terms of him completely falling off the cliff of sanity, dying, whatever.

>>>  So, were the Rams and Eagles really the teams most in need of QBs? Denver made a good pick in Paxton Lynch - he'll play well right away. Whether Dallas' pick of OSU's Ezekiel Elliot at the #4 slot pays off or not, it's definitely a Jerry Jones pick! But at least it's not a Greg Hardy reach...

>>> Who's "rebuilding", and who's making their push for 2016? You let us know what you think!

>>> What Tennessee and Tampa are trying to do to protect their young prodigy quarterbacks is promising on both fronts. Whether it bears fruit remains to be seen...

>>> Baltimore claims they pulled the plug on drafting Jeremiah Tunsil because of the "supposedly hacked" social media post with a bong. Right or wrong move?

 

UPS and DOWNS for the Last Week of October!

Yes, we've been negligent in our UPS and DOWNS this month, so let's see if we can make it up to you today with a BIG long list!

UP to the FIVE UNDEFEATED teams still left in the NFL at Hallow'een! I've heard different dates, but it's been many, many years since we've had five 6-0 teams - Green Bay, Cincinnati, Denver, Carolina, and New England. They're certainly deserving of their hallowed spots - New England and Green Bay were the consensus picks for Super Bowl combatants; Cincinnati's been tested repeatedly and looks better than any previous year in the Dalton era; and Cam Newton and that Carolina defense are doing just as well as Peyton Manning and that amazing Bronco defense! (Rephrase that: Cam's doing more that the legend, but the Denver D has been more impressive by far than any in the league.)

DOWN to the MOST DISAPPOINTING teams in the NFL this season... Baltimore fell to 1-6 last night, although a valiant effort to come back against a strong Arizona club fell short in the end zone. They've been within a score in every one of their games, and the Harbaugh coaching line will keep them competitive...but as for their own playoff hopes? Six losses is probably already as many as they can afford, and they're not going 9-0 the rest of the way. Seattle? Too early to say. Yes, they've lost more than expected, but they looked good against the Niners Thursday night. Can you call Chicago, Tampa, Tennessee, or Jacksonville "disappointing" if you weren't expecting anything from them? I think not. Certainly Detroit belongs on that list...

UP to the GREATEST NAME in modern football! Yesterday, in an effort to rearrange deck chairs on the Titanic, the Lions reneged on their promise not to change any coaches and changed coaches, firing the OC and replacing him with....wait for it...Jim Bob Cooter, a man who not only has the greatest name in the the business, but also a creative criminal record to boot: while he was at Tennessee several years ago, he was convicted of "aggravated assault" because he went into a woman's home, stripped down to his underwear, and climbed in bed with her. Had it been his wife, no worries. However, she didn't know him....OOPS! A promising move for Detroit.

DOWN to the MIAMI HURRICANE fans and alumni... who deserve whatever terrible coach they receive now that they've singlehandedly forced the ouster of Al Golden as their football coach. Certainly, the AD had no choice after the 58-0 debacle against Clemson, and even if you want to admit that the players seemed to play without interest, the firing only became necessary because the overzealous "fans" (remember, the word is short for "fanatic") demanded it. NOW...put yourself in the place of a prospective coach. Do you want to coach at Miami, having seen what they did to your predecessor? Miami was still 4-3, you know - not a bad season, although admittedly not national championship contenders. The expectations for a mid-level ACC program - and make no mistake: with the facility issues they have there, it IS a mid-level program! - are way overboard. If the poor fellow who takes the job ends his first four seasons has the same 32-25 record Golden did, I'll be impressed. And surprised.

UP to the DEPENDABILITY of the BOTTOM FEEDERS! As a phootball prophet of the lowest order, I depend on the reliability of the teams I work with in order to phorcast the outcomes of the games they play. We've seen an amazing array of turnabouts this year - for example, we expected Michigan to beat Michigan St, and they did...for the first 59:55 of the game, pre-punt. We thought Florida St would win over my son's beloved Ramblin' Wreck of Georgia Tech...until a field goal block returned for a game winner changed that outcome. We've seen ridiculous outcomes across the board - games I was absolutely SURE about came out the other way. AND YET, the one constant that keeps us above .500, above the line of sheer guess work? Well, it's the bottom feeder teams - the Savannah States, the Davidsons, the Missouri States, the New Mexico States, the Charlottes and Eastern Michigans, the Kansases of the world, that remind us that the sun will come up tomorrow in the east, set in the west, and repeat again and again. Knowing that Savannah will go to Stillwater and lose by eighty...knowing that one more Davidson Wildcat loss may be the one that pushes its Sagarin rating into negative numbers, knowing that the MVC is made up of nine amazing FCS teams...and Missouri State. That's what makes a prognosticator look smart!

DOWN to the GREG HARDY situation... I hate to say this, because it'll sound terrible...but I hope there's something medically or psychologically wrong with the Dallas Cowboys' two-game veteran defensive lineman Greg Hardy. If not, it means he's simply a complete a-hole, a jerk of gargantuan proportions. To barge into the special teams huddle (of which you have NO business being in at ALL, not being on special teams) and literally assault the ST coach is, by most standards of business practice, grounds for firing on its own, To then continue the infantile behavior with Dez Bryant (THERE's irony - Dez is the voice of reason?) and in the farcical press conference (no comment next question - wait for the question, meathead!) would be adequate grounds to be removed from the league, as no team would want you representing them in a pig-calling contest, much less in front of cameras ever again. But the real piece d'resistance, in my opinion, is his team's owner, the brilliant Jerry Jones, not only excusing his behavior (for which his coach, Jason Garrett, will not punish him at all), but praising his behavior as the kind of passion that they want their leaders to show! Congratulations, Dallas! You just sunk to number 33 on the list of my favorite NFL teams! (And yes, I realize there are only 32 teams. #32 on my list right now is being forced to watch highlights of the Chuck Pagano Special Teams Instructional video on permanent replay...)

DOWN to the idiots who would use the anonymity of Twitter and other social media to threaten athletes (AND their FAMILIES!) in ways they would never have the juevos to do in person. Without going into details, the fanatics who called out the poor Michigan punter following his dropped ball at the end of the Michigan State game were bad enough...the ones insulting the Dallas punt returner after his gaffe Sunday night were just as bad, although at least he's a professional athlete and "signed up" for the criticism. But the morons who went after his wife? What the heck? How do you figure she had anything to do with the dropped punt? Would they have gotten in her face had they met in the stadium? ...Wait a minute...maybe they would have. Didn't Giselle Brady have to deal with that after the Patriots lost a Super Bowl once? ...Sigh. It's amazing we ever evolved far enough as a species to come down from the trees. Apparently, we still fling our feces at each other for fun...

UP TO ALL OF YOU WHO READ THIS BLOG! Seriously, there's no profit margin or income of any sort involved in this project. It's simply a chance to continue a passion for football and the unpredictability of its outcomes, something my late wife and I started a few years ago on Facebook and then moved over to the blogosphere one year ago this month. To everyone who's ever read our work, which is now just my work, unfortunately... Thank you.

QUICK! Before Sunday's games start!

It occurs that we told you the consensus choices other pundits as far as the upcoming NFL season goes, but you've not gotten the benefit of the wisdom of the proven leader in prognostication - Following Football!

So, here are our division projections: 

AFC)

EAST: 1) New England. 2) Miami. Close 3) Buffalo. Distant 4) New York Jets.
NORTH: 1) Baltimore by two full games. 2) Pittsburgh. 3) Cincinnati. 4) Vacant. 5) Cleveland.
SOUTH: 1) Indianapolis. 2, closer than you think) Houston. 3, farther than they'd like) Jax. 4) Tennessee.
WEST: All four teams will have at least six wins AND losses... 1) Denver. 2) San Diego. 3) Kansas City. 4) Oakland, all within four games.

NFC)

EAST: 1) Philadelphia IF Sam Bradford is one of the 10-12 best QBs in the league; otherwise Dallas. 2) figure it out... 3) New York Giants. 4 with a stone) Washington.
NORTH: 1) Green Bay. 2) Minnesota. 3) Detroit.
SOUTH: 1) Vacant. 2) Carolina, reluctantly. 3) New Orleans and Atlanta (tie). 4) Tampa Bay.
WEST: 1) Seattle. 2) Arizona. 3) St. Louis. 4) San Francisco.

4) Chicago. (Not a typo.)

PLAYOFFS: AFC seed 3 Baltimore def. seed 6 Houston...seed 5 Pittsburgh def. seed 4 Denver. NFC seed 3 Philadelphia def. seed 6 Arizona...seed 5 Dallas def. seed 4 Carolina.

AFC seed 1 New England def. seed 5 Pittsburgh...seed 3 Baltimore def. seed 2 Indianapolis. NFC seed 1 Green Bay def. seed 5 Dallas...seed 2 Seattle def. seed 3 Philadelphia.

AFC Championship: New England def. Baltimore...NFC Championship: Green Bay def. Seattle.

SUPER BOWL: Green Bay and Cal Berkeley grad Aaron Rodgers def. New England and Bay Area product Tom Brady in Super Bowl 50 in Santa Clara, CA.

Now...about the NFL trade period...wow!

We don't even know where to start. 

St. Louis and the Philadelphia Kellys trading starting quarterbacks?

New Orleans having a fire sale?

San Francisco losing all these great players (and coaches!) and then picking up a ton of new ones as well?

The entire AFC East getting TONS better? Especially Buffalo - that's my new co-favorite (because until New England falls, I'm not betting against them...).

Seattle getting Jimmy Graham? Dallas losing DeMarco Murray? Miami signing Ndamukong Suh? (I spelled that without looking it up! Proud of me!)

And what will the Eagles look like when Chip gets done?

I think the best advice I've heard, and many wise pundits have repeated it many times, is this: It's only March 16, people. There's plenty of time - there are many more dominoes to fall - the draft is still coming. 

When the dust settles and summer arrives...then we can make our evaluations.

(But it's going to be fun to see what those teams we've named in particular look like then!)

Here is the latest update from Rotoworld and NBC Sports as to where each of the free agents in the NFL has signed ...

Here are our updated tiers following the divisional round of the NFL playoffs January 10-11:

FF rank	Team	Div	Record	WC rnd	Current
A1	Seattle Seahawks	N-W	13-4	A1	A1
A2	New England Patriots	A-E	13-4	A2	A2
A3	Green Bay Packers	N-N	13-4	A3	A3
A4	Dallas Cowboys	N-E	13-5	A5	A4
B5	Indianapolis Colts	A-S	13-5	B6	B5
B6	Denver Broncos	A-W	12-5	A4	B6
B7	Baltimore Ravens	A-N	11-7	B7	B7
C08	Detroit Lions	N-N	11-6	B8	C08
C09	Pittsburgh Steelers	A-N	11-6	C09	C09
C10	Cincinnati Bengals	A-N	10-6-1	C10	C10
C11	Carolina Panthers	N-S	8-9-1	C11	C11
C12	Arizona Cardinals	N-W	11-6	C12	C12

 

It's interesting to note that the ONLY time the Denver Broncos were not sitting comfortably inside Tier A was the end of their season, when the Colts exposed them as a second-rate club with an aging or injured quarterback (see our most recent post for more on that topic). The Cowboys and Colts both moved up a slot because of that, but otherwise there was no movement this week in that top twelve.

Now, the Indianapolis Colts travel to Foxboro, Massachusetts, to muster some confidence against a team that toyed with them a couple of months ago - New England has to be at least a touchdown favorite in this game, and undoubtedly Seattle will get similar love against Green Bay from the tipsters in Nevada. There's a reason they earned the home field advantage - they should be the favorites, and frankly if they were the two road teams we would still make them the favorites!

We're not going to put a point spread on these games, except to agree that both teams should be at least a seven point favorite to meet in Arizona on the first of February.

Congratulations to Indianapolis and Green Bay!

And to Denver and Dallas, for that matter, because all four teams were deserving today! But the difference today was Aaron Rodgers and his amazing performance on one and a half legs, and the performance of the Colts' defense today, restricting the Broncos passing game to dink and dunk without sacrificing all the run defense at the same time.

As for the ridiculous rule that reversed the critical call on fourth down, where Tony Romo connected on a brilliant throw to the equally brilliant Dez Bryant...only to have the "Calvin Johnson" rule invoked and nullify the catch? Well, first of all, given the way the rule reads and has been enforced, the call was indeed both consistent with precedent and correct to the letter of the law. The explanations given on television by Mike Perrera and others were extremely clear, as was the sentiment provided by several talking heads to the effect that the rule sucks. Of COURSE it sucks. It's insipid on the surface, and it defies common sense. 

But what's worse is the same thing that makes the Detroit loss to the Cowboys last week distressing: the ugly nonsensical call will overshadow the great season the teams had. Of course Dallas deserved better, but neither they nor the Packers deserved to lose. Generally, at this stage of the season, NOBODY deserves to lose. It just FELT like they'd accomplished what they were supposed to accomplish on the play and drive. And when you're following the game on Advanced Football Analytics, and the shift in the potential win percentage for Dallas moves from upwards of eighty percent to below twenty...it just didn't seem fair.

Remember yesterday, when I said that Character Counts?

So, yeah, I forgot I was talking about the National Football League. 

This is the league that sent Ben Roethlisberger back into the fourth quarter of a playoff game last Sunday after being hit and getting (to a 98% degree of probability) a concussion which under the league's own newly-enacted concussion rules should have kept him out of the rest of the game - if not from the concussion itself, then from the examination protocol which by definition would have taken longer than they had left in the game.

Except...no, wait! There's Big Ben coming back into the game, three flipping plays later, dropping back to throw...perhaps the WORST pass of his professional life, right into the arms of the waiting Ravens and ending the Steelers' season. Explain again how that was helpful to anyone involved?

This is the league that calls penalties, walks them off...and then reneges on them. If someone can offer a better explanation, be my guest. I pray that this one was incompetence. The "mixed all-star crew" makes that more plausible, although why a professional referee marks off a penalty and THEN gets all the relevant points of view is beyond explanation. 

Because if it's NOT incompetence, then that means they realized a Detroit first down with five minutes to go and a 20-17 lead past midfield probably made the game Detroit's to lose, a dangerous proposition if the league's flagship team, playing in its flagship stadium, were to lose to a no-public-perception team when the chance for an Ice Bowl rematch looms, Romo v Rodgers, and all that entails. Better to make it fourth down and pray that the corpse they installed as Lions coach actually punted on 4th and 1 at midfield. Which he did,  and it went ten yards, and Romo had a man's drive, and Garrett made a man's call to go for it on 4th and 6, and from THAT standpoint the Cowboys absolutely deserved to win... But outcome does not justify poor choices, or idiocy; the end never justifies the means.

And now, this is the league which paid for its own "independent" investigation to investigate ITSELF with regards to what it knew about the Ray Rice elevator video when it issued the insanely inadequate two game punishment for a criminal act heinous enough that no one will even HIRE Rice again.

The Mueller Report, paid for by two league owners, found that (surprise!) the League office ISN'T comprised of liars: just incompetents! (Hooray!) Of course, since all of their original explanations involved them lying about being incompetent, you can draw your own conclusions. Certainly, since they claimed in September that they asked EVERYONE for a copy of the elevator video back in February that the Mueller Report says the proof shows they didn't know existed...well, either the NFL blatantly lied about that in order to - to what, make themselves look inept? - or the report itself is completely farcical, in which case they've succeeded in making us forget about the Warren Commission Report. 

(If your history is as faulty as Roger Goodell's memory, the Warren Report proved that Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone in killing President Kennedy. The problem is, no one at the time believed a word of it, although time has proven that that was indeed the most likely scenario.)

The credibility of bureaucrats is often dicey to begin with, but when your best case scenario was that you were an idiot? Are you sure that's who you want in charge of your favorite sport?

Your last look at the NFL Divisional Round games this weekend

The "Elite Eight", the home bye week, the quarterfinals. Whatev, dude... To me, this is the REAL start of the playoffs, growing up in the seventies when each conference only GOT four entrants in the Super Derby (three divisions and one wild card, BTW). The best from each of the NFL's eight divisions stack up Saturday and Sunday, and here's some conjectures as to how the games might go...Remember, as Gregg Easterbrook of TMQ likes to say, All Predictions Wrong Or Your Money Back. (Easterbrook says because the home team with the bye historically wins these games at a MUCH higher rate than normal home field advantage, he ALWAYS recommends taking the home team in this round.) 

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots: The line in Vegas has New England by 7; Jeff Sagarin also says 7. Their respective ESPN bloggers think the margin will be ten or eleven; Sports Illustrated's Don Banks says 27-20, home team; Grantland's Bill Simmons says 20-17 for his beloved Pats; and Nate Silver's 538 calls this a 5.5 point spread. Fox Sports is predicting a New England victory by ghe score of 24-20. Following Football has been following suit, calling this a 7.5 point game, but we highly suspect we'll be off by at LEAST a half point! NOBODY, however, will be shellshocked if 5-0 in the playoffs Joe Flacco goes into Foxboro and moves to 3.5 - 0.5 all time in Massachusetts against Belechick (the one loss was a fluke shanked field goal).

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks: When you send a 7-win "playoff" team coming off a win over a shell of a football club into the raucous home of the defending champions, you get the kind of spreads you see for the late game Saturday. Vegas started at 10 1/2 and went UP to 11; Sagarin said 13 from the get-go. Amazingly, David Newton of ESPN has the Panthers winning 16-14: the cable giant is testing him for hallucinogens as we speak. His blog partnerhas a more appropriate 20-10 score planned. Fox Sports predicts a 26-18 Seattle win; Banks calls it 23-17; Nate Silver lists the spread at eleven; and Bill Simmons is betting his house, forecasting a 30-3 final score. Our numbers predict a more conservative 9.5 point margin, but this is the one game where we'd be GENUINELY shocked to see an upset.

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers: There is an amazingly consistent set of prognostications coming from all corners for the renewal of the Ice Bowl: everyone predicts a home team victory, but nobody doubts that it'll be very close (within a touchdown, guaranteed!). The casino spread started at 6 1/2 and has fallen to 5 1/2 (in the Pack's favor, of course); Sagarin's numbers suggest a spread of just a shade over four points; the two ESPN bloggers for these teams foresee margins of two and four; Silver believes it'll be 2.5; Banks is going 31-27 (a VERY common score prediction); Fox says 26-24; and the official, verified, often-imitated-but-never-duplicated Following Football tier system says it'll be exactly the 5 1/2 point spread Las Vegas predicts, which worries me, because if it IS, there will have to be a scoring play like none other in history. Only Bill Simmons breaks ranks, originally just figuring on the Cowboys beating the spread, and then at the end just throwing up his hands and saying 24-22, Dallas. Good luck, Bill - you'll make Governor Christie a very happy man if you're right!

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos: Set aside the "Manning versus his old team" stuff for a minute and think about what his Colts' biggest drawback was...yep, it wad the lack of a defense. (And a running game, for that matter, but irrelevant...) This time, the fact that the weaker defense wears blue again will be his blessing, not his curse, and we see a six point Broncos victory here at FF. Most prognosticators we're looking at agree: Fox says 28-25 Broncos; Simmons goes with 31-20, Denver; Silver says it'll be about a 5.5 point spread; Banks sees a 34-31 game in the offing. Jeff Sagarin's ratings are placing this as a 4 1/2 spread, while Vegas goes with a full touchdown and extra point. Only one of the two ESPN bloggers dares to predict another one-and-done for Eli and Cooper's middle brother, seeing a 35-31 win on the strength of Andrew Luck, not any weakness in Denver's offense; the other has Peyton winning, 31-22.

This weekend's predictions...

As we hit the home stretch, there are just nine games left on the American football calendar - six of which hit this weekend!

The FCS Championship Game is in legendary Frisco, Texas this Saturday, and pits the defending champion North Dakota State Bison (14-1) against the Illinois State Redbirds (13-1). 

Regardless of who wins, Northern Iowa is going to declare themselves the TRUE national champ, as they're the only team who beat BOTH of these combatants!

Vegas doesn't set lines on any college games except the FBS, but the Sagarin board has the Bison as a favorite by about 4 1/2 points. (Both teams would be all the way up into the "receiving votes" category: Illinois State falls in the #41 spot of all 252 division 1 teams (FBS and FCS combined), and NDSU actually ranks #32, above more famous teams like West Virginia, Arizona, Duke, Miami (FL) and Penn State!

Here at Following Football, we're also projecting a repeat for the three-time defenders from Fargo, but the Redbirds will be the stiffest test they've faced (UNI excluded, I suppose, although they weren't expected to be such a challenge). We'll go along with a 4.5 point line.

In the NFL, the two games on the weekend project as home team victories, but "that's why they play the game!", as they drone... New England is a 7 point favorite over Baltimore, according to Vegas and Sagarin; FF has them at about 7.5 points, adding the bye week advantage in as well. As for Seattle and Carolina, Vegas has the 'Hawks at 10.5 up, Sagarin at 13 up, and we list them at 9.5 point favorites. Regardless, it'll be an upset if either of the home teams fail to advance.

Sunday's games hold a bit more interest, although Following Football's biggest betting mantra is that the safest bet in football is the bye-week home team in the Divisional Round. Dallas heads to Green Bay in hopes of breaking that trend, but they're 6.5 point underdogs at the casinos, four-plus point 'dogs on Sagarin, and we have them as 5.5 point deficient. But on all those scales, the Cowboys are still the most likely road team to win this weekend; Dallas is the only road team among the five Tier A teams on our scale. 

Meanwhile, Indianapolis goes to visit its old quarterback again, with Denver a 7 point favorite in Vegas, 4.5 on Sagarin, and a six point favorite with us. The thrill of Peyton Manning going bonkers against his old secondary becomes secondary (b-dm-cha!) to the thrill of the playoffs!

Finally, on Monday night, we get the first College Football Playoff National Championship game, sponsored by everyone on the planet who hated the BCS...don't look past the fact that neither Oregon nor Ohio State would have BEEN here under the BCS system! Certainly Florida State would have been included (defending champ, undefeated), and the top ranked school under durn near EVERY grading system except ours was Alabama. Last year, they would have played for the title, and Ohio State (59-0 winners over Wisconsin), Oregon (51-13 winners against Arizona), TCU (42-3 over Ole Miss), and Baylor (61-58 over TCU!) would have all had reasons to whine. TCU is STILL going to whine, but we're not an advocate of an eight team playoff, frankly. I got bored of the FCS playoffs after the second round - I don't think three rounds of FCS playoffs are a good idea, either. BESIDES, if all you need to do is win your Power Conference, the point of beefing up non-conference schedules goes away. FOUR TEAMS IS FINE.

ANYWAY...the Vegas line on the game is Oregon by six; Sagarin, on the other hand, favors Ohio State by half a point! At FF, we see it as a good game as well: right now, they're teams A1 and A2, which puts them in virtually a dead heat. I see Oregon as a slight favorite (which is why they're in the A1 slot), but I would NOT bet on this game! We'll call it Oregon by 1.

Going into the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs,...

...the tiers have been updated below. For obvious reasons, Carolina has made a significant jump upwards, although we resisted shoehorning them into the top eight - they really aren't a top eight team, although given their body of work they're probably not a top twelve team, either. (Seriously...their five game win streak includes three NFC South teams, and games against Cleveland with Manziel at QB and Arizona with the Lord knows who at QB. Don't get too impressed just yet.)

Curiously, all eight divisions are represented in the round of eight! The only division winner to lose (Pittsburgh) lost to a team within its own division. 

Here are the rankings at the eighth pole, as they say on the horse track...

FOLLOWING FOOTBALL - weekly rankings
	NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE						(including playoffs)
FF rank	Team	Div	week 17	ConfRc	DvRec	Home	Season	WC rnd
A1	Seattle Seahawks	N-W	A1	10-2	5-1	7-1	12-4	A1
A2	New England Patriots	A-E	A2	9-3	4-2	7-1	12-4	A2
A3	Green Bay Packers	N-N	A3	9-3	5-1	8-0	12-4	A3
A4	Denver Broncos	A-W	A4	10-2	6-0	8-0	12-4	A4
A5	Dallas Cowboys	N-E	A5	8-4	4-2	4-4	13-4	A5
B6	Indianapolis Colts	A-S	B8	9-3	6-0	6-2	12-5	B6
B7	Baltimore Ravens	A-N	C10	6-6	3-3	6-2	11-6	B7
B8	Detroit Lions	N-N	B6	9-3	5-1	7-1	11-6	B8
C09	Pittsburgh Steelers	A-N	B7	9-3	4-2	6-2	11-6	C09
C10	Cincinnati Bengals	A-N	C11	7-5	3-3	5-2-1	10-6-1	C10
C11	Carolina Panthers	N-S	D19	6-6	4-2	4-4	8-8-1	C11
C12	Arizona Cardinals	N-W	B9	8-4	3-3	7-1	11-6	C12
D13	Philadelphia Eagles	N-E	C12	6-6	4-2	6-2	10-6	D13
D14	San Diego Chargers	A-W	D13	6-6	2-4	5-3	9-7	D14
D15	Buffalo Bills	A-E	D14	5-7	4-2	5-3	9-7	D15
D16	Kansas City Chiefs	A-W	D15	6-6	3-3	6-2	9-7	D16
D17	Miami Dolphins	A-E	D16	7-5	3-3	4-4	8-8	D17
D18	San Francisco 49ers	N-W	D17	7-5	2-4	4-4	8-8	D18
D19	Houston Texans	A-S	D18	8-4	4-2	5-3	9-7	D19
E20	St. Louis Rams	N-W	E20	4-8	2-4	3-5	6-10	E20
E21	Cleveland Browns	A-N	E21	4-8	2-4	4-4	7-9	E21
E22	New Orleans Saints	N-S	E22	6-6	3-3	3-5	7-9	E22
E23	New York Giants	N-E	E23	4-8	2-4	3-5	6-10	E23
E24	Minnesota Vikings	N-N	E24	6-6	1-5	5-3	7-9	E24
F25	Atlanta Falcons	N-S	F25	6-6	5-1	3-5	6-10	F25
G26	Chicago Bears	N-N	G26	4-8	1-5	2-6	5-11	G26
G27	Washington Redskins	N-E	G27	2-10	2-4	3-5	4-12	G27
G28	New York Jets	A-E	G28	4-8	1-5	2-6	4-12	G28
G29	Oakland Raiders	A-W	G29	2-10	1-5	3-5	3-13	G29
H30	Jacksonville Jaguars	A-S	H30	2-10	1-5	3-5	3-13	H30
H31	Tampa Buccaneers	N-S	H31	1-11	0-6	0-8	2-14	H31
H32	Tennessee Titans	A-S	H32	2-10	1-5	1-7	2-14	H32

...as with the colleges, a few thoughts:

...The two conferences "homogenized" somewhat as the end of the season arrived - at one point, there was a huge clump of AFC teams in the middle of the rankings, with all of the NFC teams either above (six or seven of them) or below (...yeah...). But as you can probably see, while there is still a block of NFC teams (from #22-27), that clump of AFC in the middle was broken up by the Rams moving up to #20 and the 49ers dropping to #18 in particular.

...the NFC South spread out some as well, with Carolina's advancement and Tampa's continued fall: their "final" rankings were #11*, #22, #25, and #31.

...in fact, the overall total ranking of the AFC South (teams are ranked as #6, 19, 30, and 32) is just about as bad - they total 87, while the NFC South totals 89 (both subject to change as the playoffs advance). 

...at one point, the defending champion Seahawks were ranked below 14th (week 10), only to finish the season as the #1 team going into the knockout round. Good luck to Carolina and whoever else has to go into Seattle...

...conversely, Arizona was ranked #1 as recently as week 11, and Philadelphia and San Diego each spent time in the A tier during the middle of the season. Both of the latter missed the playoffs entirely, and the Cardinals might as well have.

...Again, like the colleges, we will start with this set of tiers when the 2015 season kicks off (modified with the results of the last seven playoff games still to come, of course!). We won't bother with numbers until enough new evidence is in, but there's no point adjusting for free agency and draft picks and "good offseasons" until we see them in actual game action (and rarely does pre-season help that - the teams who go 4-0 in preseason and 4-12 in the regular season are legion.)

Bill Barnwell on THAT CALL yesterday...

Grantland's Bill Barnwell covers the ridiculously reversed PI call that turned the Dallas/Detroit game around in the fourth quarter yesterday, as well as the poor concussion protocol of the Pittsburgh coaching staff and the sad situations in Cincinnati and Arizona resulting from the injuries to their receivers and quarterbacks, respectively. His opinions are basically the same as mine, and he articulates them better...

Looking ahead now...

So the NFL Divisional Round is set, and it looks like this:

Saturday 2:30 pm - Baltimore at New England
   The sixth seed (11-6) goes to the first seed (12-4), and the early line is Pats by 7 (we have that as our line at FF as well). But the Ravens' secondary looked strong against the Steelers yesterday, and that had been their major weakness. Personally, however, I never bet against the bye teams in this round, and I won't do so this year, either.

Saturday 6:15 pm - Carolina at Seattle
    The only two teams to ever reach the playoffs with a losing record face each other. Unfortunately for the now 8-8-1 Panthers, Seattle is no longer 7-9 - they're 12-4, defending Super Bowl champs, and our number one team whom we've installed as ten point favorites.

Sunday 11:00 am - Dallas at Green Bay
    Two of the five top teams in the league, matching up in a rematch of the Ice Bowl, the league championship game a lifetime ago (in the pre-merger sixties). We have the Packers installed as a four point favorite, but this is the game I'm most expecting an upset by the visiting team, despite the Packers' 8-0 magic at home.

Sunday 2:30 pm - Indianapolis at Denver
    Peyton versus his old team. What more do you need? We have the Broncos as five point favorites, but the Colts have done well against Denver over the three years Mr. Luck has run the blue team, even if they lost 31-24 back in September this season.

Meanwhile, the FBS National Championship Game takes place in Dallas on January 12th, between Oregon and Ohio State. Neither team owns a geographic advantage, and both fan bases travel well, so the crowd advantage shouldn't be a factor. We favor Oregon by a point, although the casino line we use predicts the game as a seven-point Duck victory.

(And of COURSE, we are less than three months from the regular season opener for the Australian Football League!)

The NFL playoffs have begun!

Sunday 5:47 pm
Redemption! DeMarco Lawrence made up for his earlier mistake, sacking Matthew Stafford on fourth down to win the game for the Cowboys, as Romo kneels to make it a 24-20 victory over Detroit.

For Following Football fans, we nailed both of today's games, and lost both of yesterday's. (Apologies for never getting to publish it. Those of you insiders know why things behind the scene at FF have been off-kilter for a couple of weeks.) We had Pittsburgh over Baltimore by five (the line was 3.5, closer than we were); Arizona even with Carolina (the line was 6.5 Carolina's way, obviously on track); Indianapolis by five over Cincinnati (favored by four, and they won by 16); and Dallas by four, which is what they just won by (they were seven point favorites). So we went 2-2, which puts our pro record for the actual blog site at 13-20, with two washes. 

Sunday 5:40 pm
You're up four, two minutes to go, and the other team fumbles right into your hands. If you're anyone except Dallas' DeMarcus Lawrence, don't you just fall on the ball and let your offense run out the clock? The former Boise State player (sigh...), however, wanted to do something more - what, glorious? - and tried to juke people in front of him, whereupon he also fumbled the ball, right back into Lion hands, thereby providing the visitors a chance to return to their drive with a legit chance to win the game (now down four with a minute to go).

Sunday 3:14 pm
Aaaaaaaaaand there it is! Reggie Bush runs around a great block by WR Golden Tate on an 18-yard run to the corner of the end zone to complete the 99.9 yard touchdown drive. It took seven-plus minutes and 15 plays, along with that penalty on 4th down, but the Lions are now 2 for 2 on drives, while Dallas is 0-2.... ESPN says that's the first 99-yard drive in the playoffs since 2001.

Sunday 3:04 pm
Great first TD by the Detroit Lions to go up 7-0 early, lucky punt roll for Dallas that (combined with a Lions penalty) put the visitors on literally the few-inch line. But thanks to a running into the punter penalty in the end zone, the Lions are now on what could end up becoming an epic 99.8 yard drive if they can keep it going past midfield!

Sunday 2:20 pm
Cincinnati just had NO chance today against Indianapolis, or anyone else, for that matter. Too many receivers gone, no weapons for Andy Dalton to use whatsoever. Yes, he's now ohfer four, but don't hold this one against HIM. (For that matter, both of yesterday's losers, the Steelers and the Cardinals, were victims of MAJOR injuries that were the direct cause of their failures on offense.) Not sure the Colts have the weapons to run with the Broncos, but at least they're going to have a shot next week, where the Bengals wouldn't.

Saturday 9:02 pm
The most likely "upsets" of a home team were in the two games today - Baltimore's playoff experience and Arizona's sub-.500 opponent made them that way - and it's looking like we'll get one for two, as Terrell Suggs' interception between his thighs led to a Flacco TD pass which puts the Ravens up 30-15 with half a quarter to go. The lack of a run threat for Pittsburgh will cost them a playoff run, it seems...

Saturday 7:52 pm
Baltimore up 10-9 on Pittsburgh in a classic Northeast brawl, and their secondary's holding up so far! The Steelers are dealing well without LeVeon Bell to this point, too.

To finish up the 27-16 Carolina victory: they held Arizona to a playoff record low 78 yards of offense, and it can't help but bring to mind what the Cardinal radio team brought up as the end was in sight: "When we look back at this season, we won't be able to help wondering what might have been." Given their injury list, including multiple quarterbacks, we won't be able to help agreeing with them. Carolina made enough mistakes that we suspect Carson Palmer could have exploited successfully...for that matter, they wouldn't have been 11-5, either.

And for the record book: Teams under .500 entering the playoffs are now 2-0 in their playoff openers...

Saturday 5:23 pm
Listening to Mel Kiper is usually entertaining - to his credit, he's always brutally honest. On ESPN radio this morning, he offers that there were two teams going into the playoffs he knew he would pick against when the playoffs came: Arizona and Carolina. Imagine his disappointment when they ended up playing each other...and as the game continues, he was right. Neither team should win; neither team deserves a playoff win.

According to our tiered rankings for Week 17, the Cardinals should have been favored, but that doesn't account for the rise of the Panthers in the last few weeks and the fifth string quarterback Arizona's been forced to use now. It probably shouldn't be a surprise that Carolina's up 27-14 in the fourth quarter and en route to a defeat next round in the cold of either Washington or Wisconsin...

Did we forget to publish our season end NFL Tiers?

WOW! CAN'T BELIEVE THAT!
   So, that's embarassing enough, but even more so because when you look at these rankings and tiers and compare them with the records, you'll think we just looked at the RECORDS and ranked them in that order. We swear! That's not how it happened!
    We really did sort the teams first, looking at how they performed in week 17 and adjusted their previous tiers accordingly, and THEN looked up the records. To our chagrin...

Picking NFL playoff games is a fairly straightforward crapshoot. Chalk always says, pick the home team in the first round. (The tiers say take Arizona over Carolina, though. Not sure our guts agree.) In the second round ALWAYS take the home team with the bye to rest up. After that...good luck!!

Regardless, here are our season-end tiers with rankings from 1-32:

A - 1. Seattle (12-4, 10-2 in conference, 5-1 in division games, 7-1 at home)
       2. New England (12-4, 9-3, 4-2, 7-1)
       3. Green Bay (12-4, 9-3, 5-1, 8-0)
       4. Denver (12-4, 10-2, 6-0, 8-0)
       5. Dallas (12-4, 8-4, 4-2, 4-4)
These five teams all have the tools to win it all. Hard to imagine Dallas going to both Wisconsin AND Washington and winning twice, though.
B - 6. Detroit (11-5, 9-3, 5-1, 7-1)
       7. Pittsburgh (11-5, 9-3, 4-2, 6-2)
       8. Indianapolis (11-5, 9-3, 6-0, 6-2)
These three teams have a chance, but they're flawed teams that are going to have to have exceptional runs from other segments of the team to make up for those flaws to win it all.
C - 9. Arizona (11-5, 8-4, 3-3, 7-1)
       10. Baltimore (10-6, 6-6, 3-3, 6-2)
       11. Cincinnati (10-5-1, 7-5, 3-3, 5-2-1)
       12. Philadelphia (10-6, 6-6, 4-2, 6-2)
They're all four good teams, deserving of playoff spots, but we just can't see them overcoming their seedings to make it to the Super Bowl. (Especially the Eagles. Duh.)
D - 13. San Diego (9-7, 6-6, 2-4, 5-3)
        14. Buffalo (9-7, 5-7, 4-2, 5-3)
        15. Kansas City (9-7, 7-5, 3-3, 6-2)
       16. Miami (8-8, 6-6, 3-3, 4-4)
        17. San Francisco (8-8, 7-5, 2-4, 4-4)
        18. Houston (9-7, 8-4, 4-2, 5-3)
        19. Carolina (7-8-1, 6-6, 4-2, 4-4)
All good seasons, but not good enough (unless you play in the NFC South). Still, nothing to be ashamed of. It's interesting to watch mid-tier teams' reactions to a season like this, whether it becomes "something they can build on" or "there are things we need to improve on next year" or (in one case) "Hey, Michigan? Ya want him?"
E - 20. St. Louis (6-10, 4-8, 2-4, 3-5)
        21. New Orleans (7-9, 6-6, 3-3, 3-5)
        22. Cleveland (7-9, 4-8, 2-4, 4-4)
        23. New York Giants (6-10, 4-8, 2-4, 3-5)
        24. Minnesota (7-9, 6-6, 1-5, 5-3)
 F - 25. Atlanta (6-10, 6-6, 5-1, 3-5)
Each of these teams has things that they can build on for next year, although watching Carolina's demolition of the Falcons on Sunday makes it hard to find anything beyond Matt Ryan in Atlanta; hence the separate tiering for the now coachless Falcon club.
G - 26. Chicago (5-11, 4-8, 1-5, 2-6)
        27. Washington (4-12, 2-10, 2-4, 3-5)
        28. New York Jets (4-12, 4-8, 1-5, 2-6)
       29. Oakland (3-13, 2-10, 1-5, 3-5)
We're not big fans of the instinctive "fire the coach" reactions, but SOMETHING has to change for each of these teams. Coach, key players, owners, SOMETHING.
H - 30. Jacksonville (3-13, 2-10, 1-5, 3-5)
       31. Tampa Bay (2-14, 1-11, 0-6, 0-8)
       32. Tennessee (2-14, 2-10, 1-5, 1-7)
If there were somewhere to relegate these teams to - a "minor league" besides the FBS - we'd send these three teams there in a heartbeat. (Hey! They're all in SEC country! I wonder...) Besides, Florida doesn't really need three pro teams. Send one to LA and one to London.

The first ever FOLLOWING FOOTBALL NFL All-League TEAM!

We're going to take a shot at this All-League team business (since everyone else does!). Unlike MOST such endeavors, we're trying something that sounds simply ridiculous on the surface...we refused to name our team until the regular season ENDS! None of this "2 games to go" stuff for us! It's All-League for the 2014 SEASON...and the season didn't end until Sunday! (We have similar semantic complaints for not calling it the "first annual"...it's not annual until we do it again next year!)  Please understand, this goes against our anti-fantasy football mindset...but there are indeed certain players that stand out above their peers.

Okay, so, here goes!

Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay.
   As much as we love Peyton around here, Rodgers has yet to throw an interception in Wisconsin this year! Only one of his interceptions (out of a whopping five) was arguably his fault: four of the five hit his receiver's hands first. He has done more with less for years, this year no exception.
Running Backs: DeMarco Murray, Dallas / Marshawn Lynch, Seattle
  It's the year of the DeMarco - we would've liked to see him hit 2000, but in a pass-happy league, 1900? is a pretty amazing feat! As for Marshawn, anyone who won't put up with the insufferability of the press is cool with us! After the back breaking run against Arizona in week 16, it was hard to give it to anyone else.
Wideouts: Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh / Dez Bryant, Dallas
   Brown led all receivers by something like twenty catches in 2014, but even so he never looked as dominant as Bryant looked on occasion, especially against the poor overmatched Colts secondary a couple weeks back. (Although his last game against the Bengals looked DANGED impressive...)
Tight End: Rob Gronkowski, New England
   Hard not to give it to one of the old guard; Antonio Gates, for example, or Vernon Davis.. But Gronk has been too critical to the Patriots' success this year. He leads all tight ends in yardage by a wide margin, and is tied for total catches with 82. 
Offensive Line: Dallas Cowboys
   This should absolutely be a team unit award. Following Football recognizes the unit which works together the most effectively, and no unit was as good as the Cowboys, especially during the first half of the year.

Defensive Tackle: Ndamukong Suh, Detroit / Terrence Knighton, Denver
   We know it would be easier to pick more DEs and call them all front liners, but the DT is just as crucial to the success of the defense, if not as spectacular. Suh really is that spectacular, though, when he's behaving himself  (unlike Sunday) and not costing his team penalty yards or himself fine money. Knighton has clogged up the middle for the deceptively good Bronco D all year.
Defensive End: JJ Watt, Houston / Calais Campbell, Arizona
   Watt has been insanely spectacular this year. He led the league in just about every category - sack yardage, QB hits, blah, blah, blah... - besides catching passes, running back both a fumble and an interception, selling popcorn at halftime, and God only knows what else. Bill Simmons once said that the only thing that could've made his season any better is throwing a touchdown pass...and that's coming. The Arizona Cardinals have had one of the great defenses all season, and Campbell is one of the primary reasons why. Our other choices here, Mario Williams in Buffalo and Cameron Wake in Miami, would have been just as qualified: Campbell's recognition is as much for Arizona's defense as a team as for his own talents on the field.
Linebackers: Luke Kuechly, Carolina / Justin Houston, Kansas City / DeAndre Levy, Detroit
  Kuechly never heard the rule about not supposing to be as big a numbers guy in the pros as in the ACC. Houston merely set the Chiefs record for sacks, leading the league with 22 (beating even Watt this year, and the second highest all time!). Levy played solidly all season, and particularly towards the end of the year.
Safeties: Earl Thomas, Seattle / Patrick Peterson, Arizona
   All right, technically Peterson is probably a cornerback, but what we love about his game is his ability to hit as well as cover, not to mention his kick return talents, and so we're getting him on our field one way or another. Thomas, however, is a pure safety who's as good as they get, year after year.
Cornerbacks: Richard Sherman, Seattle / Darrell Revis, New England
   Rarely have two such defenders existed the same season, where no sane QB throws to their side regardless of which favorite receiver of his is running patterns with that DB. But neither Sherman nor Revis were successfully challenged all season, really.

Placekicker: Matt Bryant, Atlanta
   Perfect on extra points, 28 of 31 on field goals with all three misses past 50 yards long (and he made seven of those, the most in the league), and a complete kicker. 
Punter: Sam Koch, Baltimore
   Second in gross average, his inside 20s/touchback ratio of 9 to 1 is outstanding, and very few returners actually ran back punts (and rarely for distance, averaging less than seven YPR).
Return specialist: Darren Sproles, Philadelphia.
   It's tempting to give Devon Hester a career-achievement award here, but he didn't have the year Sproles did in his new home in Philly, where he almost single-handedly kept them afloat when the offense struggled this year.
Head coach: Pete Carroll, Seattle
   What the former USC escapee has done in Seattle is downright amazing: defense AND offense are clicking, and the sheer ability to avoid the usual post-Super Bowl deflation (the major cause of the slow start this year was injuries, not SBD) needs to be recognized!

Notable exclusions: QB - Tom Brady, New England; Russell Wilson, Seattle; Tony Romo, Dallas; Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh. RB - LeVeon Bell, Pittsburgh; Arian Foster, Houston; LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia; CJ Anderson, Denver; Jamaal Charles, Kansas City. WR -  AJ Green, Cincinnati; Odelle Beckham, Jr., NY Giants; Julio Jones, Atlanta. TE - Julius Thomas, Denver; Jimmy Graham, New Orleans. OL - Seattle; DE - Mario Williams, Buffalo; Cameron Wake, Miami, DeMarcus Ware, Denver. LB - LaVonte David, Tampa Bay. S - Charles Woodson, Oakland; Glover Quin, Detroit. CB - Aqib Talib, Denver; Vontae Davis, Indianapolis. PK - Adam Viniteri, Indianapolis; HC - Bill Belechick, New England, Bruce Arians, Arizona; Jim Caldwell, Detroit.

TOTAL Recognitions by team: SEATTLE, 4 (6 counting exclusions), DALLAS, 3 (4 counting exclusions), NEW ENGLAND 2 (4), DETROIT 2 (4), ARIZONA 2 (3), DENVER 1 (5), PITTSBURGH 1 (3), PHILADELPHIA 1 (2), ATLANTA 1 (2), HOUSTON 1 (2), KANSAS CITY 1 (2), BALTIMORE 1 (1), GREEN BAY 1 (1), CAROLINA 1 (1), INDIANAPOLIS 0 (2), CINCINNATI 0 (1), BUFFALO 0 (1), TAMPA BAY 0 (1), NY GIANTS 0 (1), NEW ORLEANS 0 (1), MIAMI 0 (1), OAKLAND 0 (1). None from NY Jets, Cleveland, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Washington, San Francisco, St. Louis, Minnesota, Chicago, or San Diego (although it killed us to leave Rivers off).