NFL predictions for the penultimate Week 16!

(There's your "word of the day" - "penultimate"! The one before the 'ultimate', the second to last. Use it in conversation once today!)

Here are the predictions for the sixteen games played on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday this week in the National Football League, from four sources: Following Football's tiered rankings, Sagarin ratings, the Vegas casino consensus, AND the "Elo rating system" from the website Five-Thirty-Eight, run by the quasi-legendary Nate Silver. Elo has been used in chess for decades, maybe centuries; and it's just now developing a following in other activities. It's actually very simple, and it's the basis for Following Football's Australian Rules Footy ranking system introduced last week: When you beat a team, your rating goes UP and theirs goes DOWN by exactly the same amount. How MUCH depends on how your ratings compared to begin with: if you beat a team you're "supposed" to beat, it won't change very much, but if it's an upset, the change will be more radical. [Word to the prudent: I'm estimating the change factors for this week because 538 hasn't published its actual predictions for Week 16 as of Tuesday; I will update this post when they do so, probably Thursday afternoon.]

So, here's Week 16!

THUR                                          FF Tiers        Vegas line        Sagarin        Elo Ratings
Tennessee @ Jacksonville             Jax -3              Jax -3                 Jax - 3.0            Jax - 1.0
SAT
Philadelphia @ Washington         Phi -7               Phi -9                 Phi - 9.3            Phi - 7.5
San Diego @ San Francisco   EVEN            SF - 2                SD - 0.7           SF - 2.0
SUN
Minnesota @ Miami                      Mia -5              Mia -7                Mia -8.1            Mia -4.0
Baltimore @ Houston              HOU -1          BAL - 6            BAL -1.2         Bal -2.5
Detroit @ Chicago                         Det -5              Det -7                 Det - 4.0           Det -2.5
Cleveland @ Carolina                    Car - 1              Car - 4                Car - 1.0           Car - 4.0
Atlanta @ New Orleans                  NO - 2             NO - 6.5             NO -3.1             NO - 3.0
Green Bay @ Tampa Bay               GB -11              GB - 10.5           GB - 11.3           GB - 8.0
Kansas City @ Pittsburgh              Pit -4.5            Pit - 3.5              KC - 1.9           Pit - 3.0
New England @ New York Jets    NE -10.5          NE -10.5           NE -15.2          NE - 10.5
New York Giants @ St. Louis        StL - 6.5           StL -5                StL - 5.9            StL -4.5
Buffalo @ Oakland                        Buf - 5              Buf -6                Buf - 9.3          Buf -3.5
Indianapolis @ Dallas                   Dal -1                Dal -3                Indy -1.1         Dal -1.0
Seattle @ Arizona                      Ariz -2            Sea -9             Ariz -0.6         Sea -2.0
MON
Devner @ Cincinnati                      Den - 1              Den - 3.5           Den -5.4            Den -2.5     

So, a couple of observations...
   The three games that we'll put on the "betting block" this week are (as noted above) Baltimore at Houston (we like the Texans at home; Vegas thinks it's the Ravens all the way, with the computers backing them to a slight degree - we'll claim the point if the game goes into overtime or Houston wins outright), San Diego at San Francisco (we've always believed that Vegas loves the 49ers because of all the Northern CA money that comes across the Sierras to bet on them - again, if SD wins or there's OT, we'll claim the point), and the defacto NFC West title game, Seattle at Arizona (HUGE discrepancy here - Sagarin agrees with us that the Cardinals are the favorites at home; Elo agrees with Vegas that the defenders should be favored. We'll take Seattle -2.5 as the tipping point; anything above that is Vegas' point.).

   Sagarin's ratings differ from all other projections in four other Sunday games, marked above: they seem to have a fetish for Kansas City (preferring them IN Pittsburgh!), New England (fifteen points in an NFL game is HUGE!), Buffalo (we love the Bills' defense, too, but Oakland ALWAYS plays strong!), and Indianapolis (to be fair and honest, we didn't give Dallas their supposed "home field advantage this week, because they're 3-4 at home and 7-0 on the road this year!). Or maybe it's that they don't like their opponents (Pittsburgh, the Jets, Oakland, and Dallas)? It'll be interesting to see. Notice that the Elo ratings never seem to deviate TOO far from the norms.

   Our record so far this year is down to 35-33-3, indicative of sheer guesswork. But I feel comfortable with our "guesswork" this year, and we'll continue to refine the system so it'll work everywhere (except maybe in the NFL, where parity is mandated!) We were actually ahead 3-1 last week after Saturday, but we lost all three of the PRO games, including last night's smashing of the Bears by the resurgent (for the moment) Saints. [By the way, with the win, the Saints move into the theoretical driver's seat with the wretched NFC South; they can (and should) win out to win the division at 8-8!]

From Gregg Easterbrook and "TMQ"...

As always, we urge you to read Tuesday Morning Quarterback, aka "TMQ", on ESPN.com every (let me guess!) Tuesday morning. Here are his ten "stats of the week"...

Stats Of The Week No. 1: At Lambeau Field, Aaron Rodgers is on a streak of 33 touchdown passes to zero interceptions, including playoffs.

Stats Of The Week No. 2: Atlanta, which goes to Lambeau Field on the next "Monday Night Football," is an NFL-worst .278 -- 10-26 -- in Monday games.

Stats Of The Week No. 3: Niners possession results at home versus Seattle: Punt, punt, interception, punt, punt, punt, end of half, field goal, interception, end of game.

Stats Of The Week No. 4: After going 453 games without a punt block for a touchdown, Minnesota did it twice in the same half versus Carolina.

Stats Of The Week No. 5: Since the start of 2013, the Chiefs are 3-7 in their division, 15-4 versus all other teams, including playoffs.

Stats Of The Week No. 6: The 49ers are 1-3 in their division. In the three previous seasons, they were 13-5-1 including playoffs.

Stats Of The Week No. 7: The Raiders have not won on the road since Nov. 17, 2013.

Stats of the Week No. 8: Boise State is on a 91-4 run when playing on blue.

Stats Of The Week No. 9: Defensive end J.J. Watt has more touchdown receptions (three) than the entire Kansas City wide receiver corps (none).

Stats Of The Week No. 10: The 2-10 Buccaneers are alive for the first overall draft pick -- and also alive to win their division and host a playoff game.

Raiders win! Raiders W--- !...well, "Raiders Fail To Lose!" seems more accurate.

Last night the Oakland Raiders leaped out to a two TD lead on the Kansas City Chiefs, who were in between important games on a Thursday night in a mudpit in a stadium that only vaguely resembles an NFL facility. Eventually, Alex Smith led the Chiefs back, and by the fourth quarter had not only tied the game at 17 but moved ahead of the 0-10 Raiders, 20-17.

Should be lights out, right?

To their credit, the Raiders and Fresno St product Derek Carr went on a lengthy, game-defining drive that will rank as the highlight of the season if the rest goes the way it has been: eighteen plays, 80 yards, seven and one-half minutes, capped off by Carr's only touchdown pass of the night to put the Raiders safely ahead, 24-20, with under two minutes to go.

Yeah, but still...I mean, it's the Raiders, man! The Chiefs came back, right?

Well, they tried to. Smith led an, um, interesting drive which included a fourth down conversion attempt that failed...except that Oakland committed not one, not two, but three penalties on the game-winning play that prevented it from being the game-winning penalty.

They also had one of the most comical sacks in the history of football. The video of that, along with some fantastic writing and analysis from Bill Barnwell of Grantland, is in the link contained here. (Enjoy!) But yes, the Raiders won their first game in 52 1/2 weeks (short work week prevented 53!), outscoring the Chiefs 24-20 in Oakland last night.

And as for the professionals...

The Canadian Football League wraps up its regular season Friday and Saturday with four games that will settle the remaining playoff questions - Ottawa @ Toronto (a typical Redblack game: Ottawa will give Toronto all it can handle before losing to the Argos late); Calgary @ British Columbia (the game hinges on how seriously the Stampeders take the game - if it's a chance to rest the starters, the Lions win); Montreal @ Hamilton (the BIG GAME of the weekend, this will determine the Eastern champ - we think Hamilton wins, but by less than the eight points they need to dethrone Montreal as division champs); and Edmonton @ Saskatchewan (the Roughriders are fading fast - take the Eskimos to win big).

In the NFL, tonight's Cincy/Cleveland game will be fascinating - the Bengals deserve to be a TD fave at home, but they're so strange...Sunday's KC @ Buffalo could go either way, but they're two teams that both have potential to bust some chops this season...Same with Miami @ Detroit...We are fascinated by the Dallas/Jacksonville tilt in London - Tony Romo has to fly across the Atlantic with a bad back? Good luck, man... San Francisco @ New Orleans feels like an elimination game; loser has NO chance at the playoffs (except NO plays in the pathetic (this year) NFC South...Can Oakland keep Denver close, like they have Seattle and others? Possible...We don't see St. Louis staying within 7 points of Arizona in any universe, with any quarterback, this season...Similarly, there's no way that Chicago can stay within a touchdown of Green Bay unless the weather makes the game unplayable...Carolina @ Philly? Wow. Do you have less faith in the fading Panthers, or in the legendary Mark Sanchez? Admittedly, he looked good in relief last week, and reports are he's ten times more comfortable with Chip Kelly and Philly than Rex Ryan and New York...but if Sanchez is your guy, you're NOT Super Bowl bound. I'm jus' sayin'...

NFL WEEK 5 Tiers adjusted

So, unlike the college weekend from bedlam, the NFL fell true to form (within reason!). Using the Vegas odds as our guide for predictions (never for gambling purposes, please!), only two games were technically upsets, and you could've easily made a case for Buffalo (17-14 last-minute victors over Detroit) and the revved-for-blood Patriots (who obliterated the undefeated Cardinals by four TDs in front of a Roman Coliseum crowd!) as favorites!

So, the changes in quartiles after Week 5: Dallas and the Colts move up to the Top Quartile, while Detroit and the Ravens drop in parallel; Buffalo and New England move from the Third to the Second Quartiles, knocking Atlanta and the Chiefs down a peg; and finally Cleveland moves off the Bottom up to the Third, with the Vikings resuming their rightful place in the lower eight.

HERE ARE YOUR WEEK FIVE NFL QUARTILES...

Top Quartile
Arizona, Cincinnati, Dallas, Denver, Indianapolis, Philadelphia, San Diego and Seattle.

Second Quartile
Baltimore, Buffalo, Carolina, Detroit, Green Bay, Houston, New England and San Francisco.

Third Quartile
Atlanta, Chicago, Cleveland, Kansas City, Miami, New Orleans, New York Giants and Pittsburgh.

Bottom Quartile
Jacksonville,Minnesota, New York Jets, Oakland, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Tennessee and Washington.

(As always - we remind you that listings are alphabetical, not a ranking; it's far too early and pointless to RANK teams at this stage.)