Some interesting / amusing / head-scratching / curious notes from the weekend's action...
1. Kansas State marching band apologizes to Univ of Kansas for ramming a Jayhawk with the Star Trek Enterprise in their marching show. So, the marching band wars have begun...
2. After missing 2/3 of the season last year, Heisman candidate Taysom Hill of BYU will miss all but one half of football in 2015 after injuring his foot against Nebraska yesterday. We feel absolutely heartbroken for the young man, who is nothing but impressive when you hear him speak and watch him perform on the field. Having said that, his back-up is a local Idaho boy, Tanner Mangum, who literally got back from his mission just three months ago and is already a hero after the Hail Mary that made the Cougars 1-0 this season.
3. Similarly, the top defensive player in the country, Scoobie Wright of Arizona, also got injured this weekend, but with surgery should be back in a month or so. Wright is a transcendent player, and you wonder whether a repaired knee will maintain his remarkable athleticism, no matter how "minor" the surgery. Prayers.
4. Thanks to a blocked extra point by the Aggies in the first, much of the Southern Utah/Utah State game took place with the scoreboard set at 6-5. Utah State may have been the least impressive winner of the weekend, lucking out with a punt return TD in the last six minutes to win the game. But their offense did nothing, even with "Chuckie" back at the the helm, against an FCS team. A field goal on a short field, the two point XP which was the difference on the scoreboard, and the special teams touchdown were all they could produce against a lower-echelon team from the Big Sky. Hardly the stuff of the potential Mountain West "favorite".
5. Week One routs were the order of the day in some parts of the world. We understand the theory, the mutual back-scratching that goes on in these games: The powerhouse conference team wants an easy warm-up game to start the season; the lower-level team needs the paycheck from the host team to balance their athletic budget - win/win situation. But it makes for some unwatchable games: Syracuse 47, Rhode Island 0; Wake Forest 41, Elon 3; Georgia Tech 69, Alcorn St 6; Miami-FL 45, Bethune-Cookman 0... and that was just in the ACC! Of course, when you get the really weak teams like Savannah State or Davidson, you get games with more penalties than offensive yards, with more turnovers than first downs, and so forth. Read the play-by-plays of either of the games these two played on Saturday, and imagine what motivation it would take to watch the game (unless you love car wrecks...).
6. Not a funny...New Mexico State not only got robbed on the field by Florida, they got robbed off the field as burglars broke into their busses and stole the athletic staff's bags.
7. What do you do if you can't get off the field in time? Like, say, when your shoe comes off? If you play for Bowling Green, you play dead. If you play quarterback for Tennessee, you're not too happy about it....
8. Oh! We almost forgot to mention the name font on Louisville's unis yesterday!
Showing posts with label Utah St. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Utah St. Show all posts
Sunday, September 6, 2015
Friday, December 26, 2014
It's college bowl season!
Sorry for the delay in this post: real life intervened. But, here are the 38 scheduled bowl games and their predicted outcomes, not just from Following Football but from Sagarin, ESPN, and Vegas:
Dec 20: ESPN SAGARIN VEGAS Following FB
Nevada v LA-Lafayette: Nev by 4 Nev by 1.4 Nev by 1. ULL by 1/2
Utah St v UTEP: USU by 13 USU by 8.8. USU by 10. USU by 12
Utah v Colorado St: CSU by 3. Utah by 5.6 Utah by 3 CSU by 1/2
W Michigan v Air Force: WM by 7. WM by 0.5. AF by 1.5. AF by 6
Bowling Green v S Alabama: BG by 1 SA by 2.4. SA by 3. SA by 1/2
Dec 22
BYU v Memphis: Mem by 7. Mem by 2.0 Mem by 1.5. Mem by 3
Dec 23
Marshall v N Illinois: Mrsh by 7. Mrsh by 12.5. Mrsh by 10 Mrsh by 4
Navy v San Diego St: SDSU by 1. SDSU by 3.1. SDSU by 3. Navy by 1
Dec 24
C Michigan v W Kentucky: WK by 13. WK by 5.0. WK by 4. WK by 5
Fresno St v Rice: Rice by 8. Rice by 2.6. Rice by 2.5 Rice by 1/2
Dec 26
Illinois v Louisiana Tech: LT by 11. LT by 9.1. LT by 6. LT by 4
Rutgers v North Carolina: NC by 3. NC by 2.7. NC by 3. Rut by 1/2.
N Carolina St v UCF: NCS by 1. UCF by 3.3. UCF by 2. UCF by 2 1/2
...and we'll pick up the second week later in this week. But for Bowl Season, we're scoring a little differently...or at least, a little additionally! We'll ALSO keep a tally of which of these four highly esteemed methodologies picks the highest number of game winners, straight up. To the victor belong the non-existent spoils!
Dec 20: ESPN SAGARIN VEGAS Following FB
Nevada v LA-Lafayette: Nev by 4 Nev by 1.4 Nev by 1. ULL by 1/2
Utah St v UTEP: USU by 13 USU by 8.8. USU by 10. USU by 12
Utah v Colorado St: CSU by 3. Utah by 5.6 Utah by 3 CSU by 1/2
W Michigan v Air Force: WM by 7. WM by 0.5. AF by 1.5. AF by 6
Bowling Green v S Alabama: BG by 1 SA by 2.4. SA by 3. SA by 1/2
Dec 22
BYU v Memphis: Mem by 7. Mem by 2.0 Mem by 1.5. Mem by 3
Dec 23
Marshall v N Illinois: Mrsh by 7. Mrsh by 12.5. Mrsh by 10 Mrsh by 4
Navy v San Diego St: SDSU by 1. SDSU by 3.1. SDSU by 3. Navy by 1
Dec 24
C Michigan v W Kentucky: WK by 13. WK by 5.0. WK by 4. WK by 5
Fresno St v Rice: Rice by 8. Rice by 2.6. Rice by 2.5 Rice by 1/2
Dec 26
Illinois v Louisiana Tech: LT by 11. LT by 9.1. LT by 6. LT by 4
Rutgers v North Carolina: NC by 3. NC by 2.7. NC by 3. Rut by 1/2.
N Carolina St v UCF: NCS by 1. UCF by 3.3. UCF by 2. UCF by 2 1/2
...and we'll pick up the second week later in this week. But for Bowl Season, we're scoring a little differently...or at least, a little additionally! We'll ALSO keep a tally of which of these four highly esteemed methodologies picks the highest number of game winners, straight up. To the victor belong the non-existent spoils!
Friday, November 28, 2014
Apparently NOBODY wants to go!
Coming towards the regular season's end, three teams matched up for the Group of Five's auto-bid into the big bowl games (what used to be called the BCS Buster): Marshall, Colorado St, and Boise St. We had the three teams in that order here at Following Football (Marshall #23, Colorado St #24, Boise St #29), although the CFP Committee actually has Boise at 23, Marshall at 24, and Colorado St just off the radar.
However, the Thundering Herd fell for the first time today (as reported here), 67-66 in overtime to Western Kentucky, and just now, the Air Force Academy kicked a last play field goal to beat the Rams, 27-24! Is this a good sign or a BAD one for the Broncos tomorrow? Their home game tomorrow against Utah St now becomes not only the de facto Mountain division title but possibly the Fiesta Bowl bid redux on the line! Technically, they still have a title game (at home) against Nevada or maybe Fresno next week, but given that the Mountain West looks like the SEC (all the talent in one division - Air Force is the fourth best team in the division AND the league), that may just be a formality...
However, the Thundering Herd fell for the first time today (as reported here), 67-66 in overtime to Western Kentucky, and just now, the Air Force Academy kicked a last play field goal to beat the Rams, 27-24! Is this a good sign or a BAD one for the Broncos tomorrow? Their home game tomorrow against Utah St now becomes not only the de facto Mountain division title but possibly the Fiesta Bowl bid redux on the line! Technically, they still have a title game (at home) against Nevada or maybe Fresno next week, but given that the Mountain West looks like the SEC (all the talent in one division - Air Force is the fourth best team in the division AND the league), that may just be a formality...
Tuesday, November 4, 2014
Looking at the early games this week...
It's already Week 10, and with our usual November "MAC-tion" upon us during the week, we need to touch on the weeknight games now!
Tuesday: Starting this very moment are two Mid-American games, Bowling Green at Akron (unlike Vegas, we like the Falcons!) and Toledo at Kent St (hard to imagine Kent St winning tonight).
Wednesday: Two more MAC games, this time Buffalo at Ohio (the Bobcats get the three point home field advantage, which we think is about right) and Northern Illinois traveling to Ball St (the Huskies really should be favored by ten or more, not three. Take NIU).
Thursday: Two major games - one in the ACC, Clemson at Wake Forest (favored by 23, and we agree), and one on the NFL Network, with the Cleveland Browns visiting the Cincinnati Bengals (despite the balance in the division, we think Cincy's TD favorite's spread is at least right).
Friday: Four games to consider - two below the 49th parallel (Memphis at Temple, favored by a TD, and Utah St at Wyoming, also favored by a TD), and two above (Ottawa at Toronto, which should be a great fight for the REDBLACKS but a hard fought win by Toronto; and Calgary at BC, which will depend entirely on who the Stampeders choose to rest).
Tuesday: Starting this very moment are two Mid-American games, Bowling Green at Akron (unlike Vegas, we like the Falcons!) and Toledo at Kent St (hard to imagine Kent St winning tonight).
Wednesday: Two more MAC games, this time Buffalo at Ohio (the Bobcats get the three point home field advantage, which we think is about right) and Northern Illinois traveling to Ball St (the Huskies really should be favored by ten or more, not three. Take NIU).
Thursday: Two major games - one in the ACC, Clemson at Wake Forest (favored by 23, and we agree), and one on the NFL Network, with the Cleveland Browns visiting the Cincinnati Bengals (despite the balance in the division, we think Cincy's TD favorite's spread is at least right).
Friday: Four games to consider - two below the 49th parallel (Memphis at Temple, favored by a TD, and Utah St at Wyoming, also favored by a TD), and two above (Ottawa at Toronto, which should be a great fight for the REDBLACKS but a hard fought win by Toronto; and Calgary at BC, which will depend entirely on who the Stampeders choose to rest).
Tuesday, October 28, 2014
Looking forward to Week 9 in college football with our SCIENTIFIC tools!
There are some great games coming this weekend, the first one on Thursday night when Tier F Louisville hosts Tier A Florida St! By tiering, the best game of the weekend should be Auburn @ Ole Miss, where the polls have the Tigers above the Rebels, but we have Ole Miss in Tier A and Auburn a rung lower in B; hence, we're favoring Ole Miss (and, if we were actually making bets, "taking the points").
Other marquee games include TCU @ West Virginia (tiers A vs. C), Kentucky @ Missouri (tiers D vs. E; unlike the oddsmakers, we like the Wildcats), Arkansas @ Mississippi St (tiers H vs. A), Arizona @ UCLA (again, they're favoring the lower tiered team, so we'll take tier C Arizona and the points over the tier E Bruins), and Stanford @ Oregon.
Going strictly by tiers, and using the old saw about home field being about a three-point advantage, we've noticed that the point spread for this week's games generally matches up very well with our 20-tier system. As a general rule, the expected margin of victory will be somewhere between 1-2.5 points per tier, plus or minus the three points for the home field. The actual average is 1.75 points per tier, with the median at 1.5 points per tier. So, if two teams are four tiers apart on last week's listing, expect the higher team to be favored by 4-10 points, most likely 6-7, + the three points for home field.
Given those parameters, and strictly using our wisened separation tool better known as "guessing" where teams should fall, we took a look at the 54 FBS games scheduled this weekend for "outliers" to see if there were some easy predictions we could make based on this statistical creation:
Predictions based on our tier system and the Vegas odds...
*Iowa should be favored by more than 4 at home against Northwestern.
*Rutgers shouldn't be eleven point underdogs at home against Wisconsin (more like 2).
*Florida International shouldn't be 6 1/2 point dogs at home to Rice (also about 2).
*Why is Duke not favored over Pitt? Tier D over tier I? They should be giving points!
*North Carolina will be closer to the Hurricanes than seventeen points...
*Boston College shouldn't be getting points from Virginia Tech (or, at least not three)!
*Eastern Michigan shouldn't be more than about a touchdown underdog to Central Michigan (not 16 1/2 points, anyway!).
*Louisiana Tech should be a much bigger favorite over Tier R Western Kentucky - six points at home isn't sufficient.
*Virginia at Georgia Tech shouldn't be just the three point home field advantage...the Yellowjackets deserve at least a TD spread in their favor.
*Part of the continued over-valuing of the Cougars after Tayson Hill's injury: Middle Tennessee should NOT be the underdog at home again BYU.
*And Kentucky should be favored over Missouri - or at least, not down six!
*We see both UNLV and Ole Miss as higher tiered teams at home (against New Mexico and Auburn, respectively), and with the three-point home bump should be more than one and two point faves, in turn. More like five each.
*Oklahoma St will be a one TD underdog to Kansas St, not two.
*Arizona will flat out beat UCLA in Los Angeles, not lose by four.
*Fresno St may be favored at home, but Wyoming shouldn't be getting 10 1/2 points!
*See previous comment with Utah not getting five points against Arizona St!
*Finally, it's hard to estimate what the trip to the islands does to a team, but we think Utah St deserves more love than a three point spread when they play at Hawaii late Saturday night!
We'll see how those predictions go this weekend! Eighteen chances to be proven wrong! A prognosticator's dream!
Other marquee games include TCU @ West Virginia (tiers A vs. C), Kentucky @ Missouri (tiers D vs. E; unlike the oddsmakers, we like the Wildcats), Arkansas @ Mississippi St (tiers H vs. A), Arizona @ UCLA (again, they're favoring the lower tiered team, so we'll take tier C Arizona and the points over the tier E Bruins), and Stanford @ Oregon.
Going strictly by tiers, and using the old saw about home field being about a three-point advantage, we've noticed that the point spread for this week's games generally matches up very well with our 20-tier system. As a general rule, the expected margin of victory will be somewhere between 1-2.5 points per tier, plus or minus the three points for the home field. The actual average is 1.75 points per tier, with the median at 1.5 points per tier. So, if two teams are four tiers apart on last week's listing, expect the higher team to be favored by 4-10 points, most likely 6-7, + the three points for home field.
Given those parameters, and strictly using our wisened separation tool better known as "guessing" where teams should fall, we took a look at the 54 FBS games scheduled this weekend for "outliers" to see if there were some easy predictions we could make based on this statistical creation:
Predictions based on our tier system and the Vegas odds...
*Iowa should be favored by more than 4 at home against Northwestern.
*Rutgers shouldn't be eleven point underdogs at home against Wisconsin (more like 2).
*Florida International shouldn't be 6 1/2 point dogs at home to Rice (also about 2).
*Why is Duke not favored over Pitt? Tier D over tier I? They should be giving points!
*North Carolina will be closer to the Hurricanes than seventeen points...
*Boston College shouldn't be getting points from Virginia Tech (or, at least not three)!
*Eastern Michigan shouldn't be more than about a touchdown underdog to Central Michigan (not 16 1/2 points, anyway!).
*Louisiana Tech should be a much bigger favorite over Tier R Western Kentucky - six points at home isn't sufficient.
*Virginia at Georgia Tech shouldn't be just the three point home field advantage...the Yellowjackets deserve at least a TD spread in their favor.
*Part of the continued over-valuing of the Cougars after Tayson Hill's injury: Middle Tennessee should NOT be the underdog at home again BYU.
*And Kentucky should be favored over Missouri - or at least, not down six!
*We see both UNLV and Ole Miss as higher tiered teams at home (against New Mexico and Auburn, respectively), and with the three-point home bump should be more than one and two point faves, in turn. More like five each.
*Oklahoma St will be a one TD underdog to Kansas St, not two.
*Arizona will flat out beat UCLA in Los Angeles, not lose by four.
*Fresno St may be favored at home, but Wyoming shouldn't be getting 10 1/2 points!
*See previous comment with Utah not getting five points against Arizona St!
*Finally, it's hard to estimate what the trip to the islands does to a team, but we think Utah St deserves more love than a three point spread when they play at Hawaii late Saturday night!
We'll see how those predictions go this weekend! Eighteen chances to be proven wrong! A prognosticator's dream!
Sunday, October 12, 2014
College Tiers after Week 6! (Part A)
Another truly exciting weekend of college football, culminating in the fourth straight victory for the state of Mississippi over a top-notch SEC team! The two Egg Bowl participants are a combined 12-0, and sit in the drivers' seats in the hardest division in football, the SEC West!
Leveling up this week from last.... Oregon and TCU (despite their first loss, they proved they belong in the big leagues) to Tier 1; LSU up to Tier 2; Clemson, USC, and Duke up to Tier 3; Kentucky and Utah up to Tier 4; Washington and Minnesota up to Tier 5; Boston College, Iowa, Utah St and Miami of Fla all moved up to Tier 6; and Bowling Green and Tennessee move into Tier 7.
Those who fell at least one tier include Auburn, Arizona, Georgia Tech, Texas A&M, Missouri, Louisville, Penn St, Oregon St, BYU, Air Force, Wisconsin and California.
The full Tier listing comes up in the next post in a few minutes...
Leveling up this week from last.... Oregon and TCU (despite their first loss, they proved they belong in the big leagues) to Tier 1; LSU up to Tier 2; Clemson, USC, and Duke up to Tier 3; Kentucky and Utah up to Tier 4; Washington and Minnesota up to Tier 5; Boston College, Iowa, Utah St and Miami of Fla all moved up to Tier 6; and Bowling Green and Tennessee move into Tier 7.
Those who fell at least one tier include Auburn, Arizona, Georgia Tech, Texas A&M, Missouri, Louisville, Penn St, Oregon St, BYU, Air Force, Wisconsin and California.
The full Tier listing comes up in the next post in a few minutes...
Tuesday, October 7, 2014
How did we do on last week's predictions? Let's find out...
Places We Looked Brilliant:
Arizona not only covered at Oregon... Louisville handled Syracuse with ease...Utah State not only covered, not only defeated BYU, but basically eliminated their chances of success this year by breaking Tayson Hill's leg...we looked prescient picking Air Force over Navy, and California winning a WILD game over Washington State, in which the Wazzu QB threw for a record 744 yards, and was undone by a missed 19-yard last second field goal!...We also projected FCS losses for UC Davis and (surprise, surprise!) Savannah State, and a tight game between Montana State and my alma mater Sacramento State, which turned into a really exciting, back-and-forth 59-56 Bobcat win.
Places We Looked Like Stevie Wonder Judging A Beauty Contest:
San Diego State failing to cover against Fresno State...neither did Texas A&M against Mississippi State, or LSU versus Auburn...Florida barely scraped by Tennessee after switching quarterbacks (probably for good), East Carolina couldn't annihilate SMU after all, who scored 24 points, tripling their season total!...TCU was much better against Oklahoma than expected, and so was Idaho (congrats, Vandals!).
And, Somewhere In The Grey Area Where We All Spend Most Of Life:
NCAA, Florida State 43, Wake Forest 3...Notre Dame/ Stanford had the same three point spread Vegas predicted, as did Oregon State/Colorado. After the Charlie Weis firing, Kansas did as expected and played inspired football...for a while, before West Virginia put them away 33-14. Michigan did indeed play Rutgers close before losing 26-24. Finally, the Boise State / Nevada game was back and forth, as expected, with the Broncos winning a wild game 52-47.
Arizona not only covered at Oregon... Louisville handled Syracuse with ease...Utah State not only covered, not only defeated BYU, but basically eliminated their chances of success this year by breaking Tayson Hill's leg...we looked prescient picking Air Force over Navy, and California winning a WILD game over Washington State, in which the Wazzu QB threw for a record 744 yards, and was undone by a missed 19-yard last second field goal!...We also projected FCS losses for UC Davis and (surprise, surprise!) Savannah State, and a tight game between Montana State and my alma mater Sacramento State, which turned into a really exciting, back-and-forth 59-56 Bobcat win.
Places We Looked Like Stevie Wonder Judging A Beauty Contest:
San Diego State failing to cover against Fresno State...neither did Texas A&M against Mississippi State, or LSU versus Auburn...Florida barely scraped by Tennessee after switching quarterbacks (probably for good), East Carolina couldn't annihilate SMU after all, who scored 24 points, tripling their season total!...TCU was much better against Oklahoma than expected, and so was Idaho (congrats, Vandals!).
And, Somewhere In The Grey Area Where We All Spend Most Of Life:
NCAA, Florida State 43, Wake Forest 3...Notre Dame/ Stanford had the same three point spread Vegas predicted, as did Oregon State/Colorado. After the Charlie Weis firing, Kansas did as expected and played inspired football...for a while, before West Virginia put them away 33-14. Michigan did indeed play Rutgers close before losing 26-24. Finally, the Boise State / Nevada game was back and forth, as expected, with the Broncos winning a wild game 52-47.
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