After laying out the strengths and weaknesses, tendencies and trends of each team, I ran a simulated season using the 2016 fixture, and here’s what I’m predicting for the 2016 season:
1. Hawthorn Hawks (2nd on the ladder at
17-5, win Grand Final). The Hawks
are here at the top until someone proves they can knock them off. And there’s
nothing in their form or roster that gives a reason to doubt that four straight
is possible, even likely. [Last year: 16-6,
158%, 3rd on ladder, GF champion. Current rating: 84.9]
2. Fremantle Dockers (1st on the ladder at
18-4, lose Grand Final) With Nat
Fyfe at the top of his game, if Harley Bennell is the key addition they
think he is – prove it, Harley! – they’ll run through the regular home-and-away
again, but they still can’t beat the Hawks in October at the MCG. [Last year: 17-5, 119%, 1st on the ladder,
prelim finalists. Current rating: 57.6]
3. Geelong Cats (3rd on the ladder at
15-7, prelim finalists) Paddy
Dangerfield and the speed of the new wave of young Cats will pull them through
games they wore out in last year. [Last year:
11-9-2, 101%, 10th place. Current rating: 52.4]
4. West Coast Eagles (5th on the ladder at
14-8, prelim finalists) No reason
to think they can’t beat any team below them in a finals situation with their
talent and experience, but not Freo or Hawthorn this year. [Last year: 16-5-1, 148%, lost in GF. Current rating
75.5]
5. Greater Western Sydney
Giants (4th
on the ladder at 15-7; semi-finalists) This is the year that they come through big time. Only a lack of
playoff experience will keep them from advancing farther than two losses and
out after the double chance. On paper, this team has very few weaknesses. [Last year: 11-11,
99%, 11th place. Current rating: 40.5]
6. Richmond Tigers (7th on the ladder at 14-8;
semi-finalists) Progress – the Tigers win their first game at North Melbourne
in finals this year, but Geelong at home proves too much. Still, another solid
season, their first finals win: things continue to look good for Tiger Nation. [Last year: 15-7, 123%, elimination finalists.
Current rating: 65.0]
7. North Melbourne Kangaroos (6th on the ladder at
14-8, qualifying finalists) Another
solid season for the Kangas, but age will catch up with them late in the
season. Except for Brent Harvey, who will pass game 418 and then reveal he’s
actually an android sent from the future. [Last
year: 13-9, 107%, prelim finalists. Current rating: 64.5]
8. Western Bulldogs (8th on the ladder at 13-9 plus
percentage; qualifying finalists) Couldn’t understand why everyone thought this budding young
team could possibly fall back, until I ran the simulation and realized what a
difficult schedule they have. They’ll have to rely on Freo relaxing in round 23
to secure this last spot. [Last year:
14-8, 115%, elimination finalists. Current rating: 58.9]
9. Sydney Swans (9th place, 13-9 with lower percentage than WB) No Goodes, no Jetta, Buddy
could very well be on the downside, and Isaac Heeney can’t be the only young
talent on the team. Too slow to catch teams like Western. [Last year: 16-6, 127%, semi-finalists. Current
rating: 65.6]
10. Adelaide Crows (10th place, 11-11
plus percentage) The loss of
Dangerfield will hurt more than the Crows want to admit. All the trauma from
Phil Walsh’s death last year will catch up with them this year, just as
Essendon found out two years ago. [Last year: 13-8-1, 116%, semi-finalists. Current rating:
61.2]
11. Melbourne Demons (11th place, 11-11) This may have been the biggest surprise in
the simulation. Melbourne many not make finals this year, but after a five-game
win streak in this run-thru, they were 6-4 and sitting pretty. Three losses in
a row on the road in July may doom those chances, but Demons supporters will
take .500 this year! [Last year: 7-15, 77%, 13th place. Current
rating: 30.8]
12. Port Adelaide Power (12th place, 8-14 plus percentage) The Power are much
more likely to look like they did the last half of ’15 than the first half of
’14. The speed and cohesiveness are just gone. [Last
year: 12-10, 107%, 9th place. Current rating: 59.6]
13. Gold Coast Suns (13th place, 8-14) Man-o-man, wouldn’t I like
to see them make finals someday soon? But the injury bug’s already started:
David Swallow’s gone for the first half of the year, and there’s no real sign
that things are going to be any different this year. If Gary Ablett Jr. stays
healthy and at the top of his game, they could make a charge towards 8th
place, but they’re not going to do any real damage. Interesting fact: for the
last eight years, there has always been a team who jumped from 14th
or lower to make finals the next season. If that happens again, I’m betting
it’s Gold Coast. [Last year:
4-17-1, 73%, 16th place. Current rating: 31.2]
14. Collingwood Magpies (14th place, 7-15 plus
percentage) Start booing now, Pie
fans. Then explain why you have optimism this year. Explain what’s changed from
the team that’s gone 2-9 since midseason last year. Why are they any better
than the team that faded out of finals contention the past two years? *the
silence is deafening* [Last year: 10-12, 106%,
12th place. Current rating: 42.8]
15. St. Kilda Saints (15th place, 7-15). Yes, Saints nation, we were all impressed
that you managed six wins last year when some thought you wouldn’t win any. And
your young talent will show some positive signs this year. But that doesn’t
translate to wins in the first year – ask GWS. It’s 2017 you’re aiming
for. [Last year: 6-15-1, 78%, 14th
place. Current rating: 31.0]
16. Brisbane Lions (16th place, 6-16). Young, eager, excited about playing for Brisbane,
which hasn’t been the case for a few years. This is going to be a fun team to
watch develop. Not one that will win very often, but one that will be
fun to watch. And they’ll improve, and they’ll be better in ’17. That’s the
plan, and no reason to doubt it! [Last year: 4-18, 68%, 17th place. Current
rating: 30.7]
17. Essendon Bombers (17th place, 4-18) Frankly, any
prediction of where the topped-up Dons are going to wind up seven months from
now is pure speculation. We’re assuming they’re still good players, and once
they learn to play together, they’ll be able to play with the teams around them
on the ladder and might even exceed the win total of the regulars who suffered
from such a dysfunctional disaster last winter. But really – who knows? [Last year: 6-16, 74%, 15th place.
Current rating: 28.9]
18. Carlton Blues (18th place, 3-19). I really wish I could tell you otherwise,
Blues fans, but it’s going to be a massive rebuilding project at Princes Park.
We’ll have to wait and see what direction this club chooses to take with its
new young talent and coach, but it’s not going to score very often this year,
and that makes it tough to win games. [Last
year: 4-18, 65%, 18th place. Current rating: 18.7]
Qualifying Finals: Fremantle def. GWS; Hawthorn def. Geelong.
Elimination Finals: West Coast def. Sydney; Richmond def. North
Melbourne.
Semi-Finals: West Coast def. GWS; Geelong def. Richmond.
Preliminary Finals: Fremantle def. Geelong; Hawthorn def. West
Coast.
Grand Final: Hawthorn def. Fremantle.
