It was the best of times, it was the worst of times... There were ups, and there were downs... highs, and lows... successes, and failures...
If the West Coast Eagles could have kicked against the broad side of a flipp'n barn, we would probably have nailed our AFL Grand Final prediction. As it was, instead of Hawthorn winning their third straight final 110-88, the score was 107-61...with star Eagles like Jack Darling and Josh Kennedy kicking like the ball was made out of meat or something. It was decided by halftime; Rex Hunt's famous fat lady sang in the second quarter, just like last year. Our final results for the 2015 season: 150-56 overall, and against the spread we went 123-83. We fell to second in our division of the tipping contest when the person behind us also thought the Eagles would kick terribly, it seems, and passed us on margin only. Oh well!
In the CFL, we got three out of four winners right (Calgary managed to win in Hamilton, 35-33), and went 2-2 against the spread, so our season is now at 35-25 overall and 32-26-2 ATS.
In the NFL, we split our predictions last week between the games we felt good predicting and the ones we felt uncertain about. Turns out...there's not much difference.
With our "sure thing" games? 6-2 against the spread, 5-3 overall.
With our "flip a coin" games? 5-2 both against the spread AND overall.
Total: 11-4 ATS, 10-5 straight up. One more winner ATS, one more loser straight up.
Huh....
Overall now, we're 40-22 straight up and 41-21 ATS.
Finally, with the college games, there were some holes-in-one on our part...
"Take Clemson to win" over favored Notre Dame? 24-22, Tigers.
"TCU wins by a lot more than 15"? TCU 50, Texas 7.
"Can't believe A&M's not favored at home!" Aggies win over MSU, 30-17.
"BGSU wins by LESS than nine" - Bowling Green 28-22 over Buffalo.
And Western Illinois over Southern Illinois by 1? Western 37, Southern 36!
And then.... well, some were atrocious: "Tech by double digits!" (UNC 38, GT 31)..."Don't trust the Hawkeyes: UW to win and cover!" (Iowa 10, Wisconsin 6)..."We have (UCLA) higher on every metric!" (Arizona St 38, Bruins 23)..."We like NIU to win by MUCH MORE than (two) - Central Michigan 29, Northern Illinois 19...and the worst sin of all, not having faith in a five-time defending champion to rise up as an underdog (and we're NOT talking about Alabama's shellacking of Georgia, although we could - we missed that one too!) - North Dakota St rose up as a three-point underdog at South Dakota St, their archrival, and whipped them 28-7.
So, our overall results this week: In the FBS games, we went a respectable 42-19 straight up, but a terrible 24-33 against the spread! With the FCS, we had no Vegas spread to go with (and we need to stop treating the Sagarin numbers like they're from oddsmakers!), so all we can say is that we went a very excellent 44-10 picking our FCS winners (and it would've been better had we not gone 2-4 within our home conference, the Big Sky!).
Oh, and the Valparaiso/Davidson game we said would be 2-0 Valpo? Try 42-35 Valpo. Turns out it wasn't a lack of offense - it was a lack of defense...
Our overall record as of October 5th... 367-93 picking winners only; 212-188-2 against the spread. [STILL better than "Twilight"!] That's just under 80% straight up and 53% ATS.
Showing posts with label Bowling Green. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bowling Green. Show all posts
Monday, October 5, 2015
Sunday, September 6, 2015
Bonus college coverage of the Weird, Wild, and Wondrous!
Some interesting / amusing / head-scratching / curious notes from the weekend's action...
1. Kansas State marching band apologizes to Univ of Kansas for ramming a Jayhawk with the Star Trek Enterprise in their marching show. So, the marching band wars have begun...
2. After missing 2/3 of the season last year, Heisman candidate Taysom Hill of BYU will miss all but one half of football in 2015 after injuring his foot against Nebraska yesterday. We feel absolutely heartbroken for the young man, who is nothing but impressive when you hear him speak and watch him perform on the field. Having said that, his back-up is a local Idaho boy, Tanner Mangum, who literally got back from his mission just three months ago and is already a hero after the Hail Mary that made the Cougars 1-0 this season.
3. Similarly, the top defensive player in the country, Scoobie Wright of Arizona, also got injured this weekend, but with surgery should be back in a month or so. Wright is a transcendent player, and you wonder whether a repaired knee will maintain his remarkable athleticism, no matter how "minor" the surgery. Prayers.
4. Thanks to a blocked extra point by the Aggies in the first, much of the Southern Utah/Utah State game took place with the scoreboard set at 6-5. Utah State may have been the least impressive winner of the weekend, lucking out with a punt return TD in the last six minutes to win the game. But their offense did nothing, even with "Chuckie" back at the the helm, against an FCS team. A field goal on a short field, the two point XP which was the difference on the scoreboard, and the special teams touchdown were all they could produce against a lower-echelon team from the Big Sky. Hardly the stuff of the potential Mountain West "favorite".
5. Week One routs were the order of the day in some parts of the world. We understand the theory, the mutual back-scratching that goes on in these games: The powerhouse conference team wants an easy warm-up game to start the season; the lower-level team needs the paycheck from the host team to balance their athletic budget - win/win situation. But it makes for some unwatchable games: Syracuse 47, Rhode Island 0; Wake Forest 41, Elon 3; Georgia Tech 69, Alcorn St 6; Miami-FL 45, Bethune-Cookman 0... and that was just in the ACC! Of course, when you get the really weak teams like Savannah State or Davidson, you get games with more penalties than offensive yards, with more turnovers than first downs, and so forth. Read the play-by-plays of either of the games these two played on Saturday, and imagine what motivation it would take to watch the game (unless you love car wrecks...).
6. Not a funny...New Mexico State not only got robbed on the field by Florida, they got robbed off the field as burglars broke into their busses and stole the athletic staff's bags.
7. What do you do if you can't get off the field in time? Like, say, when your shoe comes off? If you play for Bowling Green, you play dead. If you play quarterback for Tennessee, you're not too happy about it....
8. Oh! We almost forgot to mention the name font on Louisville's unis yesterday!
1. Kansas State marching band apologizes to Univ of Kansas for ramming a Jayhawk with the Star Trek Enterprise in their marching show. So, the marching band wars have begun...
2. After missing 2/3 of the season last year, Heisman candidate Taysom Hill of BYU will miss all but one half of football in 2015 after injuring his foot against Nebraska yesterday. We feel absolutely heartbroken for the young man, who is nothing but impressive when you hear him speak and watch him perform on the field. Having said that, his back-up is a local Idaho boy, Tanner Mangum, who literally got back from his mission just three months ago and is already a hero after the Hail Mary that made the Cougars 1-0 this season.
3. Similarly, the top defensive player in the country, Scoobie Wright of Arizona, also got injured this weekend, but with surgery should be back in a month or so. Wright is a transcendent player, and you wonder whether a repaired knee will maintain his remarkable athleticism, no matter how "minor" the surgery. Prayers.
4. Thanks to a blocked extra point by the Aggies in the first, much of the Southern Utah/Utah State game took place with the scoreboard set at 6-5. Utah State may have been the least impressive winner of the weekend, lucking out with a punt return TD in the last six minutes to win the game. But their offense did nothing, even with "Chuckie" back at the the helm, against an FCS team. A field goal on a short field, the two point XP which was the difference on the scoreboard, and the special teams touchdown were all they could produce against a lower-echelon team from the Big Sky. Hardly the stuff of the potential Mountain West "favorite".
5. Week One routs were the order of the day in some parts of the world. We understand the theory, the mutual back-scratching that goes on in these games: The powerhouse conference team wants an easy warm-up game to start the season; the lower-level team needs the paycheck from the host team to balance their athletic budget - win/win situation. But it makes for some unwatchable games: Syracuse 47, Rhode Island 0; Wake Forest 41, Elon 3; Georgia Tech 69, Alcorn St 6; Miami-FL 45, Bethune-Cookman 0... and that was just in the ACC! Of course, when you get the really weak teams like Savannah State or Davidson, you get games with more penalties than offensive yards, with more turnovers than first downs, and so forth. Read the play-by-plays of either of the games these two played on Saturday, and imagine what motivation it would take to watch the game (unless you love car wrecks...).
6. Not a funny...New Mexico State not only got robbed on the field by Florida, they got robbed off the field as burglars broke into their busses and stole the athletic staff's bags.
7. What do you do if you can't get off the field in time? Like, say, when your shoe comes off? If you play for Bowling Green, you play dead. If you play quarterback for Tennessee, you're not too happy about it....
8. Oh! We almost forgot to mention the name font on Louisville's unis yesterday!
Friday, December 26, 2014
It's college bowl season!
Sorry for the delay in this post: real life intervened. But, here are the 38 scheduled bowl games and their predicted outcomes, not just from Following Football but from Sagarin, ESPN, and Vegas:
Dec 20: ESPN SAGARIN VEGAS Following FB
Nevada v LA-Lafayette: Nev by 4 Nev by 1.4 Nev by 1. ULL by 1/2
Utah St v UTEP: USU by 13 USU by 8.8. USU by 10. USU by 12
Utah v Colorado St: CSU by 3. Utah by 5.6 Utah by 3 CSU by 1/2
W Michigan v Air Force: WM by 7. WM by 0.5. AF by 1.5. AF by 6
Bowling Green v S Alabama: BG by 1 SA by 2.4. SA by 3. SA by 1/2
Dec 22
BYU v Memphis: Mem by 7. Mem by 2.0 Mem by 1.5. Mem by 3
Dec 23
Marshall v N Illinois: Mrsh by 7. Mrsh by 12.5. Mrsh by 10 Mrsh by 4
Navy v San Diego St: SDSU by 1. SDSU by 3.1. SDSU by 3. Navy by 1
Dec 24
C Michigan v W Kentucky: WK by 13. WK by 5.0. WK by 4. WK by 5
Fresno St v Rice: Rice by 8. Rice by 2.6. Rice by 2.5 Rice by 1/2
Dec 26
Illinois v Louisiana Tech: LT by 11. LT by 9.1. LT by 6. LT by 4
Rutgers v North Carolina: NC by 3. NC by 2.7. NC by 3. Rut by 1/2.
N Carolina St v UCF: NCS by 1. UCF by 3.3. UCF by 2. UCF by 2 1/2
...and we'll pick up the second week later in this week. But for Bowl Season, we're scoring a little differently...or at least, a little additionally! We'll ALSO keep a tally of which of these four highly esteemed methodologies picks the highest number of game winners, straight up. To the victor belong the non-existent spoils!
Dec 20: ESPN SAGARIN VEGAS Following FB
Nevada v LA-Lafayette: Nev by 4 Nev by 1.4 Nev by 1. ULL by 1/2
Utah St v UTEP: USU by 13 USU by 8.8. USU by 10. USU by 12
Utah v Colorado St: CSU by 3. Utah by 5.6 Utah by 3 CSU by 1/2
W Michigan v Air Force: WM by 7. WM by 0.5. AF by 1.5. AF by 6
Bowling Green v S Alabama: BG by 1 SA by 2.4. SA by 3. SA by 1/2
Dec 22
BYU v Memphis: Mem by 7. Mem by 2.0 Mem by 1.5. Mem by 3
Dec 23
Marshall v N Illinois: Mrsh by 7. Mrsh by 12.5. Mrsh by 10 Mrsh by 4
Navy v San Diego St: SDSU by 1. SDSU by 3.1. SDSU by 3. Navy by 1
Dec 24
C Michigan v W Kentucky: WK by 13. WK by 5.0. WK by 4. WK by 5
Fresno St v Rice: Rice by 8. Rice by 2.6. Rice by 2.5 Rice by 1/2
Dec 26
Illinois v Louisiana Tech: LT by 11. LT by 9.1. LT by 6. LT by 4
Rutgers v North Carolina: NC by 3. NC by 2.7. NC by 3. Rut by 1/2.
N Carolina St v UCF: NCS by 1. UCF by 3.3. UCF by 2. UCF by 2 1/2
...and we'll pick up the second week later in this week. But for Bowl Season, we're scoring a little differently...or at least, a little additionally! We'll ALSO keep a tally of which of these four highly esteemed methodologies picks the highest number of game winners, straight up. To the victor belong the non-existent spoils!
Sunday, November 9, 2014
Reviewing our Week 10 predictions!
Well, if you've been with us this week, you know we've been firing on all cylinders in Week 10! Here's our results...
Successes: Bowling Green over Akron...NIU over Ball St...Temple closer than a TD to Memphis...Baylor destroying Oklahoma...Duke big over Syracuse...Army over UConn...TCU over Kansas St...LSU took Alabama to overtime....Toronto over Ottawa late...Hamilton wins against Montreal (half-credit)..,Cardinals big over the Rams. We'd like to be able to claim Minnesota's win over Iowa, but we didn't, so we can't.
Missteps: We said UL-Monroe would win against Appalachian St; the Warhawks gave up a late FG to lose 31-29...We were surprised Old Dominion beat FIU 38-35, but they had to score ten points in the last 65 seconds to do it...Ohio St beat Michigan St, on the road...Arizona St sure impressed us, handling Notre Dame...Didn't think Saskatchewan still had it in them to beat Edmonton...and the half-credit Hamilton was because we did NOT think the Tiger-Cats would win by enough to win the division (8). They won by fifteen. (Yes, that's more than eight.)
(And there's still the chance that Chicago could stay close to the Packers tonight.) So, right now, we are 10.5 - 5.5, so we will take that!
Successes: Bowling Green over Akron...NIU over Ball St...Temple closer than a TD to Memphis...Baylor destroying Oklahoma...Duke big over Syracuse...Army over UConn...TCU over Kansas St...LSU took Alabama to overtime....Toronto over Ottawa late...Hamilton wins against Montreal (half-credit)..,Cardinals big over the Rams. We'd like to be able to claim Minnesota's win over Iowa, but we didn't, so we can't.
Missteps: We said UL-Monroe would win against Appalachian St; the Warhawks gave up a late FG to lose 31-29...We were surprised Old Dominion beat FIU 38-35, but they had to score ten points in the last 65 seconds to do it...Ohio St beat Michigan St, on the road...Arizona St sure impressed us, handling Notre Dame...Didn't think Saskatchewan still had it in them to beat Edmonton...and the half-credit Hamilton was because we did NOT think the Tiger-Cats would win by enough to win the division (8). They won by fifteen. (Yes, that's more than eight.)
(And there's still the chance that Chicago could stay close to the Packers tonight.) So, right now, we are 10.5 - 5.5, so we will take that!
Tuesday, November 4, 2014
Looking at the early games this week...
It's already Week 10, and with our usual November "MAC-tion" upon us during the week, we need to touch on the weeknight games now!
Tuesday: Starting this very moment are two Mid-American games, Bowling Green at Akron (unlike Vegas, we like the Falcons!) and Toledo at Kent St (hard to imagine Kent St winning tonight).
Wednesday: Two more MAC games, this time Buffalo at Ohio (the Bobcats get the three point home field advantage, which we think is about right) and Northern Illinois traveling to Ball St (the Huskies really should be favored by ten or more, not three. Take NIU).
Thursday: Two major games - one in the ACC, Clemson at Wake Forest (favored by 23, and we agree), and one on the NFL Network, with the Cleveland Browns visiting the Cincinnati Bengals (despite the balance in the division, we think Cincy's TD favorite's spread is at least right).
Friday: Four games to consider - two below the 49th parallel (Memphis at Temple, favored by a TD, and Utah St at Wyoming, also favored by a TD), and two above (Ottawa at Toronto, which should be a great fight for the REDBLACKS but a hard fought win by Toronto; and Calgary at BC, which will depend entirely on who the Stampeders choose to rest).
Tuesday: Starting this very moment are two Mid-American games, Bowling Green at Akron (unlike Vegas, we like the Falcons!) and Toledo at Kent St (hard to imagine Kent St winning tonight).
Wednesday: Two more MAC games, this time Buffalo at Ohio (the Bobcats get the three point home field advantage, which we think is about right) and Northern Illinois traveling to Ball St (the Huskies really should be favored by ten or more, not three. Take NIU).
Thursday: Two major games - one in the ACC, Clemson at Wake Forest (favored by 23, and we agree), and one on the NFL Network, with the Cleveland Browns visiting the Cincinnati Bengals (despite the balance in the division, we think Cincy's TD favorite's spread is at least right).
Friday: Four games to consider - two below the 49th parallel (Memphis at Temple, favored by a TD, and Utah St at Wyoming, also favored by a TD), and two above (Ottawa at Toronto, which should be a great fight for the REDBLACKS but a hard fought win by Toronto; and Calgary at BC, which will depend entirely on who the Stampeders choose to rest).
Sunday, October 26, 2014
Week 8 tiers continued - the Ground Floor!
Continuing out of the Basement and up to the Ground Floor with Tiers K through P, the "second quartile", if you will - we refuse to rank teams this early in the season, but these are teams #62 through #96 (there are seven teams in each of these five tiers). Onward!
Tier P:
Colorado (2-6, 0-5 and the lowest team in the Pac12), Indiana (3-4, and the lowest team in the Big Ten at 0-3), Ohio (4-5, 2-3 MAC), Purdue (3-5, 1-3 in the Big Ten alongside Indiana), Texas St (4-3, 2-1 Sun), UAB (4-4, 2-2 C-USA), and Wyoming (3-5, 1-3 MW).
Tier N (no Tier O - don't really have a reason...):
The Sun Belt's 2-1 Arkansas St (4-3), the MAC's Central Michigan (5-4, 3-2) and Western Michigan (3-3, 3-1), the Mountain West's Fresno St (3-5, 2-2) and San Jose St (3-4, 2-1), Rice (4-3, 2-1 C-USA), and South Florida (3-5, 2-2 ACC).
Tier M:
Only Conference USA has two representatives in Tier M - Florida Atlantic (3-5, 2-2) and Texas-El Paso (4-3, 2-1). The other five schools are Michigan (3-5, 1-3 Big 10), Navy (4-4 as independent), San Diego St (4-3, 3-1 MW), Temple (4-3, 2-2 AAC), and Washington St (2-6, 1-4 Pac12). [Michigan should find it appropriate that they're in Tier "M"...yet somehow we doubt they're pleased!]
Tier L:
BYU has fallen all the way to here (4-4 as an independent), alongside Illinois (4-4, 1-3 Big 10), Middle Tennessee (5-3, 4-1 C-USA), Texas and Texas Tech (both 3-5, although the Longhorns have one more win in the Big 12), Toledo (5-3, undefeated at 4-0 in the MAC), and Louisiana-Lafayette (4-3, and also undefeated in conference at 3-0 in the Sun Belt).
Tier K:
The first tier without a losing record includes six different conferences (there's only one tier without duplicate teams from the same conference...and we haven't reached it yet!) starts with Bowling Green (5-3, 3-1 in the MAC), Central Florida (5-2, 3-0) and Cincinnati (4-3, 2-1) from the American Athletic Conference, Georgia Southern (the highest ranked team from the Sun Belt conference at 6-2 and 5-0), Louisiana Tech (5-3, 4-0 C-USA), Nevada (5-3, 2-2 MW), and North Carolina St (4-4, 0-4 in the ACC).
Tier P:
Colorado (2-6, 0-5 and the lowest team in the Pac12), Indiana (3-4, and the lowest team in the Big Ten at 0-3), Ohio (4-5, 2-3 MAC), Purdue (3-5, 1-3 in the Big Ten alongside Indiana), Texas St (4-3, 2-1 Sun), UAB (4-4, 2-2 C-USA), and Wyoming (3-5, 1-3 MW).
Tier N (no Tier O - don't really have a reason...):
The Sun Belt's 2-1 Arkansas St (4-3), the MAC's Central Michigan (5-4, 3-2) and Western Michigan (3-3, 3-1), the Mountain West's Fresno St (3-5, 2-2) and San Jose St (3-4, 2-1), Rice (4-3, 2-1 C-USA), and South Florida (3-5, 2-2 ACC).
Tier M:
Only Conference USA has two representatives in Tier M - Florida Atlantic (3-5, 2-2) and Texas-El Paso (4-3, 2-1). The other five schools are Michigan (3-5, 1-3 Big 10), Navy (4-4 as independent), San Diego St (4-3, 3-1 MW), Temple (4-3, 2-2 AAC), and Washington St (2-6, 1-4 Pac12). [Michigan should find it appropriate that they're in Tier "M"...yet somehow we doubt they're pleased!]
Tier L:
BYU has fallen all the way to here (4-4 as an independent), alongside Illinois (4-4, 1-3 Big 10), Middle Tennessee (5-3, 4-1 C-USA), Texas and Texas Tech (both 3-5, although the Longhorns have one more win in the Big 12), Toledo (5-3, undefeated at 4-0 in the MAC), and Louisiana-Lafayette (4-3, and also undefeated in conference at 3-0 in the Sun Belt).
Tier K:
The first tier without a losing record includes six different conferences (there's only one tier without duplicate teams from the same conference...and we haven't reached it yet!) starts with Bowling Green (5-3, 3-1 in the MAC), Central Florida (5-2, 3-0) and Cincinnati (4-3, 2-1) from the American Athletic Conference, Georgia Southern (the highest ranked team from the Sun Belt conference at 6-2 and 5-0), Louisiana Tech (5-3, 4-0 C-USA), Nevada (5-3, 2-2 MW), and North Carolina St (4-4, 0-4 in the ACC).
Sunday, October 12, 2014
College Tiers after Week 6! (Part A)
Another truly exciting weekend of college football, culminating in the fourth straight victory for the state of Mississippi over a top-notch SEC team! The two Egg Bowl participants are a combined 12-0, and sit in the drivers' seats in the hardest division in football, the SEC West!
Leveling up this week from last.... Oregon and TCU (despite their first loss, they proved they belong in the big leagues) to Tier 1; LSU up to Tier 2; Clemson, USC, and Duke up to Tier 3; Kentucky and Utah up to Tier 4; Washington and Minnesota up to Tier 5; Boston College, Iowa, Utah St and Miami of Fla all moved up to Tier 6; and Bowling Green and Tennessee move into Tier 7.
Those who fell at least one tier include Auburn, Arizona, Georgia Tech, Texas A&M, Missouri, Louisville, Penn St, Oregon St, BYU, Air Force, Wisconsin and California.
The full Tier listing comes up in the next post in a few minutes...
Leveling up this week from last.... Oregon and TCU (despite their first loss, they proved they belong in the big leagues) to Tier 1; LSU up to Tier 2; Clemson, USC, and Duke up to Tier 3; Kentucky and Utah up to Tier 4; Washington and Minnesota up to Tier 5; Boston College, Iowa, Utah St and Miami of Fla all moved up to Tier 6; and Bowling Green and Tennessee move into Tier 7.
Those who fell at least one tier include Auburn, Arizona, Georgia Tech, Texas A&M, Missouri, Louisville, Penn St, Oregon St, BYU, Air Force, Wisconsin and California.
The full Tier listing comes up in the next post in a few minutes...
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