DOWNS - your blogger, who's been a day off all week...not because of Labor Day per se, but because he was waiting for the results of the Ohio St/VaTech game Monday night before moving on into the next week...only to then be a day behind! I'll try to make it up by getting our Prophecies column out later today!
DOWNS - the Texas Longhorn football team, who in its last three games has looked nothing like the Burnt Orange Machine of old. The loss Saturday night was almost as devastating as the humiliation to Arkansas in its bowl game last winter, where the Longhorns had one TD drive of 43 yards (two good plays), and a game-total of 25 net yards - meaning that excluding one drive towards the end of the first half, Texas had negative 18 yards of offense for the game. In fact, over the last three games, the Texas offense has been outscored by the opponents' defenses 21-20!
UPS - Temple, who beat Penn St 27-10; Northwestern, who beat Stanford 16-6, and Illinois, who overcame its coaching mess to beat Kent St 52-3. All three have far brighter prospects today than they did a week ago!
UPS - the Canadian rivalries between Calgary/Edmonton, Saskatchewan/Winnipeg, and Toronto/Hamilton. CFL scheduling is a hoot! All three pairs of rivals play home-and-home series over last weekend and this one, building a chance for animosity, bragging rights, fights, and twice as many reasons as usual to hate the other team! Going into this second weekend, let's see if Edmonton, Winnipeg, or Toronto can manage to even the scales at home!
UPS AND DOWNS - it's too early for any adjustments in our Top Eights or Bottom Fives, but here's a sneak peek at the college teams we pushed towards the "first among equals" status on one end, and the "isn't there a tier lower than this?" on the other...
POWER FIVE CONFERENCES: Alabama, Ohio State, Texas A&M, and Notre Dame all looked remarkable this weekend! Meanwhile, Washington St and Colorado lost to middling-to-poor lower level teams (Portland St and Hawai'i, respectively) and don't appear to have improved as much as we'd hoped...i.e., at all.
GROUP OF FIVE CONFERENCES: While Boise St would probably still be sitting atop this group for now, their second half was not impressive, even given the Pac-12 opponent. More impressive were the wins by Western Kentucky (against a vastly improved Vanderbilt), Appalachian St, Temple and Houston of the AAC, and we'll count BYU in this group for now on the strength of its Hail Mary victory at Nebraska. (Speaking of which, don't skip the last UP today!) Downs to the usual candidates: Idaho, Georgia St (lost to newbie Charlotte 23-20), Kent St and Tulane.
FCS CHAMPIONSHIP CONFERENCES: Southern Utah absolutely should have a win over Utah St under its belt today - they dominated the Aggies on defense (13 USU punts!) and were it not for USU's special teams (a blocked XP converted on the other end, and a 4th quarter punt return), Southern wins easily. Credit to the Missouri Valley Conference and Big Sky schools, of course, winning in FBS stadia - South Dakota St, Portland St, and North Dakota. Jacksonville's victory over Chattanooga spoke highly of the OVC. On the down side, the Colonial Athletic Association went 2-9, and it would've been ten losses had Stony Brook's game with Toledo not been cancelled before halftime with Toledo already up 16-7.
HBC CONFERENCES: Alas, off to a bad start at 6-17 across the board, and the six wins included four against lower division opponents and two against each other (Prairie View def Texas Southern; Ark-Pine Bluff lost to South Carolina State).
And finally, UPS to the Mangum family of Eagle, Idaho, who were in Pocatello watching one son make the catch of the day (according to ESPN, who made it Top Ten Play #2) for Idaho State, and were alerted that their other son was in at QB for BYU after the starter was injured, and saw him throw a Hail Mary to the end zone which gave the Cougars the 33-28 win in Nebraska - and was ESPN's Top Ten Play #1 for the day! "What are the odds?" said Dad, "We're just going to enjoy it for now!" This weekend, one parent's headed back to Pocatello and the other to Provo, so they can watch both sons play!
Showing posts with label Ohio St. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ohio St. Show all posts
Wednesday, September 9, 2015
Wednesday, September 2, 2015
PROPHECIES in PHOOTBALL for the 1st Weekend of September, 2015
It's finally here! The first slate of American football games hits the airwaves tomorrow night, and from here until January we'll have solid football available to us every five-day weekend (and even a few Tuesdays and Wednesdays in November, thanks to the MAC)! We'll keep track of our projections and predictions so you can keep us honest, just like we have for Aussie footy (138-50 so far this season straight up, 110-78 against the spread) and Canadian football (23-19 so far, in a season where the oddsmakers themselves are under .500!). Alas, we're already zero-and-one in college football, having forecast the defending champions to win in Missoula last weekend, when the Grizzlies came from behind in the last seconds to win. While we were personally happy to see UM victorious...it still goes in our loss column. Luckily, we NEVER bet money, and we don't recommend you use our prognostications to bet money, either! Gambling is an addiction for too many people, and if you're one of those for whom it becomes a slippery slope, don't even touch the betting window. These predictions are for entertainment purposes only.
Let's get the internationals out of the way first...
AFL) The three matches of interest are Richmond over North Melbourne (by more than the 7.5 spread); Adelaide over Geelong (by more than the 12.5 spread), and Port Adelaide over Fremantle, although I wouldn't bet on Freo's outcome this week as they've publicly said they're resting everyone of import this round with first place locked up. In other news, Hawthorn may not cover the 87 point difference our ratings have them over Carlton, but they'll win with their eyes closed; Sydney wins with ease over Gold Coast and West Coast over St. Kilda, but neither by the 50.5 spread. Western, Collingwood, and GWS will all win and cover against Brisbane, Essendon, and Melbourne.
CFL) The headline matches take place on Labor Day Monday, when we predict Hamilton over Toronto by 13 and Calgary over Edmonton by 6, which would place both winning teams firmly in control of their divisions with eight games to go in the season. On the undercard, we see Montreal hosting and beating BC by five, and Saskatchewan getting its first win, inspired by the fresh new coach, defeating Winnipeg by one.
As for the NFL) You're kidding, right? Talk to us next week.
NCAA) HERE WE GO!!!! There are FOUR tier I versus tier I games (using last year's rankings as a starting point) in the very first week ("Week Zero", but 126 of the 128 FBS teams play this weekend!). We see...
Alabama over Wisconsin (by more than the 10 point spread); Texas A&M over Arizona St (by more than 3), Auburn over Louisville on Sunday (and beating the 10.5 points), and Ohio St annihilating poor Virginia Tech on Monday night by more than the 11 point Vegas line, and probably more than the 22 point Sagarin rating difference as well, no matter who plays QB.
There are TEN other games in our list of "featured" matchups this weekend, all involving two top-notch teams. Here's our thoughts on them:
North Carolina will UPSET South Carolina, despite the 2.5 spread the other way.
Utah should edge Michigan, but not by 5.5 points - maybe a field goal?
TCU is favored by 14 over Minnesota, but we see the Gophers much more competitive than that.
Boise St's 11.5 spread over Washington, coached by former BSU boss Chris Petersen, is too high.
Notre Dame, on the other hand, will handle Texas by 10+ points, going away.
UCLA / Virginia will be over in the Bruins' favor by halftime; give the points.
BYU might not beat Nebraska, but they'll be closer than six.
Stanford, au contraire, wipes out Pat Fitzgerald's dreams at Northwestern, twelve points be hanged.
Temple should stay right with Penn State and at least beat the six point spread.
And finally, on Sunday, Marshall plays its second toughest opponent of the year - lowly Purdue - and wins by more than a TD; more likely four. That's why even 12-0 won't be enough for the Herd.
Next, we're going to look at ELEVEN of the more "interesting" match-ups farther down the food chain in Division I. There are some games where it may look like a bodybag game, but watch out, home favorite!
Georgia Southern is NOT a twenty point 'dog to West Virginia. I'm considering taking them straight up...Western Kentucky has actually moved to become a half-point favorite over Vanderbilt, and in fact they'll wipe the Commodores up by two TDs...UL-Lafayette went to a bowl game last year, and Kentucky didn't smell one. So why is UK a seventeen point fave?...Central Michigan won't upset Oklahoma, but they'll be more competitive than the Sooners want for an opener!...Same with Arkansas St at drunk frat party U (whoops) SC, who're too busy examining the ramifications of its off field issues to pay attention to the fact that ASU's got the same head coach for the first time in five years and will get out of the gates HOT this year...Eastern Washington, on the other hand, is in for a shellacking at the hands of their former QB and the Oregon Ducks....Finally in this category, is Hawaii an underdog to Colorado? Should anyone be an underdog to Colorado? Still, we're taking the Buffalo, because Hawaii's just that messed up.
Elsewhere, there's a fascinating bottom-of-the-ladder game where last year's Bottom Six champ, Georgia State, is actually favored against brand new FBS team Charlotte (by a TD). But even below THAT, two FBS teams play Saturday that have never played FOOTBALL before! East Tennessee St and Kennesaw St open up against each other, and someone's going to win their first game of football EVER (and the other team will probably go 0-12)...Also in the FBS, Chattanooga / Jacksonville State should be a great match-up; we're taking the Southern Conference champs over the Ohio Valley this go-round. Finally, our favorite team in the world opens their 2015 campaign in Fort Collins, Colorado: Savannah State should be a good bet to beat the Sagarin rating spread of 60+ points against Mountain West team Colorado State. But they won't...
Three games start the CONFERENCE slates this weekend - Montana has the chance to not only be the first 1-0 team in the country (which they are, as far as D1 is concerned), but also the first D1 team to be 1-0 in conference as well, and they should win over Cal Poly SLO in the Big Sky...In the SWAC, Prairie View A&M should beat Texas Southern, and the Southland season opens with Southeast Louisiana and Northwestern St. (betting the former to win on the road.)
There's a long list of much less interesting fodder, which we'll note without comment except to say that bold (and listed first) tells you who we think will WIN the game outright; and we're underlining the team who we favor against either the odds or the Sagarin rating spread (for games involving FCS teams, which Vegas doesn't post odds for).
Power Five conference team games: Boston College over Maine, Clemson over Wofford, Florida St over Texas St, North Carolina St over Troy, Syracuse over Rhode Island, Wake Forest over Elon, Duke over Tulsa, Georgia Tech over Alcorn St, Miami-FL over Bethune-Cookman, Richmond upsetting Maryland (!), Michigan St over Western Michigan, Rutgers over Norfolk St, Illinois over Kent St, Baylor by 70 over SMU, Oklahoma over Akron (not by 70, though), Okla St barely over Central Michigan, Cal over Grambling, Oregon St over Weber St, Washington St over Portland St, Arizona over UTSA, Florida over NMSU, Georgia over UL-Monroe, Missouri over SE Missouri St, Ole Miss over UT-Martin.
Group of Five conference team games: Cincinnati over Alabama A&M, East Carolina over Towson, UCF over FIU, USF over Florida A&M, Houston over Tennessee Tech, Memphis over Missouri St, Navy over Colgate, FAU over Tulsa?, MTSU over Jackson St, Old Dominion over Eastern Michigan, LA Tech over Southern, Rice over Wagner, Buffalo over Albany, Miami-OH may actually win a game playing Presbyterian!, Ohio over Idaho, Ball St over VMI, Northern Illinois will wipe out UNLV, Toledo over Stony Brook, Fresno St should beat Abilene Christian by 14+, Nevada over UC Davis, San Diego St has too big a spread to cover against crosstown San Diego of the Pioneer League, Air Force over Morgan State, New Mexico over Mississippi Valley St, Utah St should cover against Southern Utah, Wyoming over North Dakota, Appalachian St all over Howard, and South Alabama over Gardner-Webb.
There are only 21 games in which FCS teams play each other, and we normally don't predict very many of those games. We will mention a few, though, including our bet that Jacksonville does the weak sister Pioneer League proud and beats favored Delaware; that William & Mary can defeat Lefayette, that St. Francis-PA can handle Georgetown with ease, and that the student athletes from the military school The Citadel may get a chance to hone their obliteration skills against poor Davidson, owners of the worst Sagarin rating in Division 1.
(And there are eighteen games where an FCS team dips down into Division II to open the season. Ask me if I care.)
Let's get the internationals out of the way first...
AFL) The three matches of interest are Richmond over North Melbourne (by more than the 7.5 spread); Adelaide over Geelong (by more than the 12.5 spread), and Port Adelaide over Fremantle, although I wouldn't bet on Freo's outcome this week as they've publicly said they're resting everyone of import this round with first place locked up. In other news, Hawthorn may not cover the 87 point difference our ratings have them over Carlton, but they'll win with their eyes closed; Sydney wins with ease over Gold Coast and West Coast over St. Kilda, but neither by the 50.5 spread. Western, Collingwood, and GWS will all win and cover against Brisbane, Essendon, and Melbourne.
CFL) The headline matches take place on Labor Day Monday, when we predict Hamilton over Toronto by 13 and Calgary over Edmonton by 6, which would place both winning teams firmly in control of their divisions with eight games to go in the season. On the undercard, we see Montreal hosting and beating BC by five, and Saskatchewan getting its first win, inspired by the fresh new coach, defeating Winnipeg by one.
As for the NFL) You're kidding, right? Talk to us next week.
NCAA) HERE WE GO!!!! There are FOUR tier I versus tier I games (using last year's rankings as a starting point) in the very first week ("Week Zero", but 126 of the 128 FBS teams play this weekend!). We see...
Alabama over Wisconsin (by more than the 10 point spread); Texas A&M over Arizona St (by more than 3), Auburn over Louisville on Sunday (and beating the 10.5 points), and Ohio St annihilating poor Virginia Tech on Monday night by more than the 11 point Vegas line, and probably more than the 22 point Sagarin rating difference as well, no matter who plays QB.
There are TEN other games in our list of "featured" matchups this weekend, all involving two top-notch teams. Here's our thoughts on them:
North Carolina will UPSET South Carolina, despite the 2.5 spread the other way.
Utah should edge Michigan, but not by 5.5 points - maybe a field goal?
TCU is favored by 14 over Minnesota, but we see the Gophers much more competitive than that.
Boise St's 11.5 spread over Washington, coached by former BSU boss Chris Petersen, is too high.
Notre Dame, on the other hand, will handle Texas by 10+ points, going away.
UCLA / Virginia will be over in the Bruins' favor by halftime; give the points.
BYU might not beat Nebraska, but they'll be closer than six.
Stanford, au contraire, wipes out Pat Fitzgerald's dreams at Northwestern, twelve points be hanged.
Temple should stay right with Penn State and at least beat the six point spread.
And finally, on Sunday, Marshall plays its second toughest opponent of the year - lowly Purdue - and wins by more than a TD; more likely four. That's why even 12-0 won't be enough for the Herd.
Next, we're going to look at ELEVEN of the more "interesting" match-ups farther down the food chain in Division I. There are some games where it may look like a bodybag game, but watch out, home favorite!
Georgia Southern is NOT a twenty point 'dog to West Virginia. I'm considering taking them straight up...Western Kentucky has actually moved to become a half-point favorite over Vanderbilt, and in fact they'll wipe the Commodores up by two TDs...UL-Lafayette went to a bowl game last year, and Kentucky didn't smell one. So why is UK a seventeen point fave?...Central Michigan won't upset Oklahoma, but they'll be more competitive than the Sooners want for an opener!...Same with Arkansas St at drunk frat party U (whoops) SC, who're too busy examining the ramifications of its off field issues to pay attention to the fact that ASU's got the same head coach for the first time in five years and will get out of the gates HOT this year...Eastern Washington, on the other hand, is in for a shellacking at the hands of their former QB and the Oregon Ducks....Finally in this category, is Hawaii an underdog to Colorado? Should anyone be an underdog to Colorado? Still, we're taking the Buffalo, because Hawaii's just that messed up.
Elsewhere, there's a fascinating bottom-of-the-ladder game where last year's Bottom Six champ, Georgia State, is actually favored against brand new FBS team Charlotte (by a TD). But even below THAT, two FBS teams play Saturday that have never played FOOTBALL before! East Tennessee St and Kennesaw St open up against each other, and someone's going to win their first game of football EVER (and the other team will probably go 0-12)...Also in the FBS, Chattanooga / Jacksonville State should be a great match-up; we're taking the Southern Conference champs over the Ohio Valley this go-round. Finally, our favorite team in the world opens their 2015 campaign in Fort Collins, Colorado: Savannah State should be a good bet to beat the Sagarin rating spread of 60+ points against Mountain West team Colorado State. But they won't...
Three games start the CONFERENCE slates this weekend - Montana has the chance to not only be the first 1-0 team in the country (which they are, as far as D1 is concerned), but also the first D1 team to be 1-0 in conference as well, and they should win over Cal Poly SLO in the Big Sky...In the SWAC, Prairie View A&M should beat Texas Southern, and the Southland season opens with Southeast Louisiana and Northwestern St. (betting the former to win on the road.)
There's a long list of much less interesting fodder, which we'll note without comment except to say that bold (and listed first) tells you who we think will WIN the game outright; and we're underlining the team who we favor against either the odds or the Sagarin rating spread (for games involving FCS teams, which Vegas doesn't post odds for).
Power Five conference team games: Boston College over Maine, Clemson over Wofford, Florida St over Texas St, North Carolina St over Troy, Syracuse over Rhode Island, Wake Forest over Elon, Duke over Tulsa, Georgia Tech over Alcorn St, Miami-FL over Bethune-Cookman, Richmond upsetting Maryland (!), Michigan St over Western Michigan, Rutgers over Norfolk St, Illinois over Kent St, Baylor by 70 over SMU, Oklahoma over Akron (not by 70, though), Okla St barely over Central Michigan, Cal over Grambling, Oregon St over Weber St, Washington St over Portland St, Arizona over UTSA, Florida over NMSU, Georgia over UL-Monroe, Missouri over SE Missouri St, Ole Miss over UT-Martin.
Group of Five conference team games: Cincinnati over Alabama A&M, East Carolina over Towson, UCF over FIU, USF over Florida A&M, Houston over Tennessee Tech, Memphis over Missouri St, Navy over Colgate, FAU over Tulsa?, MTSU over Jackson St, Old Dominion over Eastern Michigan, LA Tech over Southern, Rice over Wagner, Buffalo over Albany, Miami-OH may actually win a game playing Presbyterian!, Ohio over Idaho, Ball St over VMI, Northern Illinois will wipe out UNLV, Toledo over Stony Brook, Fresno St should beat Abilene Christian by 14+, Nevada over UC Davis, San Diego St has too big a spread to cover against crosstown San Diego of the Pioneer League, Air Force over Morgan State, New Mexico over Mississippi Valley St, Utah St should cover against Southern Utah, Wyoming over North Dakota, Appalachian St all over Howard, and South Alabama over Gardner-Webb.
There are only 21 games in which FCS teams play each other, and we normally don't predict very many of those games. We will mention a few, though, including our bet that Jacksonville does the weak sister Pioneer League proud and beats favored Delaware; that William & Mary can defeat Lefayette, that St. Francis-PA can handle Georgetown with ease, and that the student athletes from the military school The Citadel may get a chance to hone their obliteration skills against poor Davidson, owners of the worst Sagarin rating in Division 1.
(And there are eighteen games where an FCS team dips down into Division II to open the season. Ask me if I care.)
Thursday, August 20, 2015
THURSDAY THOUGHTS - Vegas' thoughts on the NFL and NCAA
Welcome to Thursday Thoughts, and today's thoughts are regarding the outcomes of the American brand of football, currently in pre-production but opening at a stadium near you in the next few weeks!
Ya wanna start with the pros first? Okee-doky!
Here are the combined rankings from six leading prognosticators, including scouting combines, media sources, and casino oddsmakers, on a 4-3-2-1 vote from top to bottom:
A perfect score would be 24 (six groups score a team as most likely to win the division). FOUR teams are considered locks to win their NFL divisions...
Not coincidentally, those are the four teams considered most likely to win the Super Bowl this year! Green Bay was chosen as Super Bowl 50 champion in four of the six surveys; Indy and Seattle won one each.
The other division winners are projected as follows:
Auburn, USC (both 15 to 1)
Oregon (17 to 1)
Baylor and Florida St (19 to 1)
LSU and Michigan State (21 to 1)
Clemson and Oklahoma (26 to 1)
Notre Dame (29 to 1)
UCLA, Georgia, and Ole Miss (all 34 to 1)
Mississippi State and Stanford (both 41 to 1)
From there, it descends into about ten teams at each level, as you get into the "just how unrealistic IS this?" game. These numbers seem very typical of the thinking most pundits have at the moment. [My personal thought reading the rest of the list is that if you were going to put a Group of Five team in that CFP this year, it would have to be Boise State, as they're the only one with a track record long enough that an undefeated season might just get them in. It's strange, then, in a season where they're universal favorites to win the Mountain West (only Ohio State is as big a conference fave), they're sitting BEHIND five Group of Five teams, TWO of which are in the Mountain West - the same teams they're predicted to whup this year. Weird. It's not like it's going to ever happen, but it might be worth plunking a fiver down on the Broncos at 251-1 to win the national championship!]
Ohio State is certainly everyone's favorite at the moment, deservedly so. As mentioned, the Buckeyes and Broncos are the only teams in the realm of get-back-less-than-what-you-bet favorites to win their conferences, both around the "bet three or four to win one" dollar mark. But that's a hard target to wear on your back all season long - you'll have to be able to win when you're not playing well. because everyone will come at you with their best shot this year!
Ya wanna start with the pros first? Okee-doky!
Here are the combined rankings from six leading prognosticators, including scouting combines, media sources, and casino oddsmakers, on a 4-3-2-1 vote from top to bottom:
A perfect score would be 24 (six groups score a team as most likely to win the division). FOUR teams are considered locks to win their NFL divisions...
AFC East: New England
AFC South: Indianapolis
NFC North: Green Bay
NFC West: Seattle
Not coincidentally, those are the four teams considered most likely to win the Super Bowl this year! Green Bay was chosen as Super Bowl 50 champion in four of the six surveys; Indy and Seattle won one each.
The other division winners are projected as follows:
AFC West: Denver (5 of 6 chose the Broncos)
AFC North: Baltimore (4 of 6 chose the Ravens)
NFC East: Dallas (3 out of 6 chose the Cowboys, with one tie)
NFC South: Carolina (3 out of six chose the Panthers, with one tie).
Overall, adding up the general perceptions of these six organizations, we get something like this:
AFC playoff teams NFC playoff teams
1. Indianapolis (#3 overall) 1. Green Bay (#1 overall)
2. New England (#4 overall) 2. Seattle (#2 overall)
[So, the consensus is a new match-up in the Super Bowl this year!]
3. Denver (#5 overall) 3. Dallas (#6 overall)
4. Baltimore (#8 overall) 4. Carolina (#14 overall)
5. Pittsburgh (#9 overall) 5. Philadelphia (#7 overall)
6. Cincinnati (#11 overall) 6. Arizona (#10 overall)
[Not many new teams...and close races in the AFC North and NFC East again!...]
Below those teams...
7. Miami (#12 overall) 7. New Orleans (#17 overall)
[AND the NFC South again, though they maybe not so lousy...and Miami missed by ONE vote!]
8. Kansas City (#13 overall) 8. Minnesota (#18 overall)
9. Buffalo (#15 overall) 9. New Jersey Giants (#19 overall)
10. San Diego (#16 overall) 10. Detroit (#21 overall)
11. Houston (#20 overall) 11. Atlanta (#22 overall)
12. New Jersey Jets (#25 overall) 12. St. Louis (#23 overall)
13. Jacksonville (#28 overall) 13. San Francisco (#24 overall)
14. Cleveland (#30 overall) 14. Chicago (#26 overall)
15. Oakland (#31 overall) 15. Washington (#27 overall)
16. Tennessee (#32 overall) 16. Tampa Bay (#29 overall)
Our meta-analysis is that these folks aren't taking the last-becomes-first-overnight nature of the NFL into account enough...but then, how do you predict unpredictability, anyway?
As for the NCAA crown, well, there's one definitive front-runner there, too...
Here are the odds from the top tier of one of the major worldwide gambling sites as of this week:
Winner of the 2016 NCAA (Division 1A) FBS Championship Game
Ohio State (5 to 1 odds)
Alabama (8.5 to 1)
TCU (9 to 1)Auburn, USC (both 15 to 1)
Oregon (17 to 1)
Baylor and Florida St (19 to 1)
LSU and Michigan State (21 to 1)
Clemson and Oklahoma (26 to 1)
Notre Dame (29 to 1)
UCLA, Georgia, and Ole Miss (all 34 to 1)
Mississippi State and Stanford (both 41 to 1)
From there, it descends into about ten teams at each level, as you get into the "just how unrealistic IS this?" game. These numbers seem very typical of the thinking most pundits have at the moment. [My personal thought reading the rest of the list is that if you were going to put a Group of Five team in that CFP this year, it would have to be Boise State, as they're the only one with a track record long enough that an undefeated season might just get them in. It's strange, then, in a season where they're universal favorites to win the Mountain West (only Ohio State is as big a conference fave), they're sitting BEHIND five Group of Five teams, TWO of which are in the Mountain West - the same teams they're predicted to whup this year. Weird. It's not like it's going to ever happen, but it might be worth plunking a fiver down on the Broncos at 251-1 to win the national championship!]
Ohio State is certainly everyone's favorite at the moment, deservedly so. As mentioned, the Buckeyes and Broncos are the only teams in the realm of get-back-less-than-what-you-bet favorites to win their conferences, both around the "bet three or four to win one" dollar mark. But that's a hard target to wear on your back all season long - you'll have to be able to win when you're not playing well. because everyone will come at you with their best shot this year!
Thursday, July 2, 2015
Speaking of college football, how about a few early predictions?
While here at Following Football:ACNC we don't rank our teams early so as not to bias ourselves against what we see, there's nothing to stop us from guessing how things are going to turn out! So, holding back the right to adjust these predictions as circumstances warrant until the season actually starts in September, here are some thoughts as they pertain to the actual conference races this fall...
Atlantic Coast Conference:
- The winner of the Florida St @ Clemson game wins the ACC title. (We bet Clemson.)
- Louisville 3rd and NC St 4th in the Atlantic; everyone else is putrid.
- Flip a coin between Miami, Georgia Tech, and Va-Tech for the Coastal crown...
-...we're taking Miami in an upset right now.
- Duke will still be good; just not AS good. 4th place.
- Since UNC goes TO Pitt, we'll take Pitt for 5th and the Tar Heels 6th.
- It'll be Al Golden's last year at Virginia, as they finish 7th in the Coastal division.
The B1G (the Big Ten, which of course has 14 teams):
- Ohio State is as good as they say. Undefeated season going into the CFP.
- Michigan State would be champs except for the Buckeyes.
- Penn St gets the Wolverines at home, so they get 3rd and Harbaugh gets 4th.
- The rest of the division is bad. Take Rutgers, Maryland, and Indiana in that order.
- Take Minnesota for the West Division! They get BOTH Wisc and Neb at home!
- Wisconsin will be ready to pounce on another division crown if the Gophers fail.
- Nebraska third, and nobody close behind them.
(But plan on Iowa, NW, Illinois, and terrible Purdue if you have to.)
The XII (the Big Twelve, which of course has 10 teams):
- TCU all the way, including a pounding of Baylor in Fort Worth and a trip to the CFP.
- The rest of the real class in the XII is Baylor and OU, who we see 2nd and 3rd.
- There's a logjam for mediocrity, which we're deciphering as Texas, K-St, OSU, and WVU.
- The bottom of the conference is still poor. Tech 8th, ISU 9th, KU 10th.
The Pac-12 Conference:
- Two tight races at the top: we'll flip a coin down south and say UCLA has the slightly easier road.
- Up north, we've a hunch that it's finally Stanford's year to get through OU to the CFP!
- The four other good teams in the conference are Arizona, Utah, Cal, and ASU. In that order.
- UW might join them, but let's see them against Boise St first. If they win there, then yes.
- Wazzu and Oregon St may have some chances to at least go to a bowl.
- Colorado definitely does NOT.
The Southeastern Conference:
- We're staying with 'Bama until they prove us wrong. Division, conference, CFP.
-...but LSU and Auburn are good choices, too, should "In Saban we trust" falter.
- 4th/5th is tight between Ole Miss and Arkansas; their game is in Mississippi, so we take the Rebels.
- 6th/7th would be 1st/2nd in most conferences. Here, it's placing Miss St in the cellar because A&M wins in Texas.
- Georgia's the only team in the Eastern Division that would have a chance in the West.
- The other six will go winless against the West. Book it!
- Vanderbilt will be last. But I'd prefer to school there than any of the other SEC schools.
- Spots 2-6 may be a five way tie at 3-5, but we'll say: UK, Mizzou, USC, FLA, and UT.
So to recap: The College Football Playoff should be TCU, Ohio St, Stanford, and 'Bama.
The Power Five Bottom Five (we're splitting it up this year!) may start with Vandy, Kansas, Colorado, Purdue, and Wake Forest. The Group of Five conferences are next.
Atlantic Coast Conference:
- The winner of the Florida St @ Clemson game wins the ACC title. (We bet Clemson.)
- Louisville 3rd and NC St 4th in the Atlantic; everyone else is putrid.
- Flip a coin between Miami, Georgia Tech, and Va-Tech for the Coastal crown...
-...we're taking Miami in an upset right now.
- Duke will still be good; just not AS good. 4th place.
- Since UNC goes TO Pitt, we'll take Pitt for 5th and the Tar Heels 6th.
- It'll be Al Golden's last year at Virginia, as they finish 7th in the Coastal division.
The B1G (the Big Ten, which of course has 14 teams):
- Ohio State is as good as they say. Undefeated season going into the CFP.
- Michigan State would be champs except for the Buckeyes.
- Penn St gets the Wolverines at home, so they get 3rd and Harbaugh gets 4th.
- The rest of the division is bad. Take Rutgers, Maryland, and Indiana in that order.
- Take Minnesota for the West Division! They get BOTH Wisc and Neb at home!
- Wisconsin will be ready to pounce on another division crown if the Gophers fail.
- Nebraska third, and nobody close behind them.
(But plan on Iowa, NW, Illinois, and terrible Purdue if you have to.)
The XII (the Big Twelve, which of course has 10 teams):
- TCU all the way, including a pounding of Baylor in Fort Worth and a trip to the CFP.
- The rest of the real class in the XII is Baylor and OU, who we see 2nd and 3rd.
- There's a logjam for mediocrity, which we're deciphering as Texas, K-St, OSU, and WVU.
- The bottom of the conference is still poor. Tech 8th, ISU 9th, KU 10th.
The Pac-12 Conference:
- Two tight races at the top: we'll flip a coin down south and say UCLA has the slightly easier road.
- Up north, we've a hunch that it's finally Stanford's year to get through OU to the CFP!
- The four other good teams in the conference are Arizona, Utah, Cal, and ASU. In that order.
- UW might join them, but let's see them against Boise St first. If they win there, then yes.
- Wazzu and Oregon St may have some chances to at least go to a bowl.
- Colorado definitely does NOT.
The Southeastern Conference:
- We're staying with 'Bama until they prove us wrong. Division, conference, CFP.
-...but LSU and Auburn are good choices, too, should "In Saban we trust" falter.
- 4th/5th is tight between Ole Miss and Arkansas; their game is in Mississippi, so we take the Rebels.
- 6th/7th would be 1st/2nd in most conferences. Here, it's placing Miss St in the cellar because A&M wins in Texas.
- Georgia's the only team in the Eastern Division that would have a chance in the West.
- The other six will go winless against the West. Book it!
- Vanderbilt will be last. But I'd prefer to school there than any of the other SEC schools.
- Spots 2-6 may be a five way tie at 3-5, but we'll say: UK, Mizzou, USC, FLA, and UT.
So to recap: The College Football Playoff should be TCU, Ohio St, Stanford, and 'Bama.
The Power Five Bottom Five (we're splitting it up this year!) may start with Vandy, Kansas, Colorado, Purdue, and Wake Forest. The Group of Five conferences are next.
Friday, May 29, 2015
Is it too early to talk Top 30 in college football?
Yes. Yes it is.
However, Sports Illustrated doesn't think so, and they've put out their "post-spring camp Top 25" plus five more, and it's an interesting list to peruse...
1. Ohio State 11. Stanford 21. Georgia Tech
2. Baylor 12. Ole Miss 22. Oklahoma
3. Auburn 13. Arizona 23. BYU
4. Alabama 14. USC 24. LSU
5. Michigan St 15. Boise State 25. Oklahoma St
6. TCU 16. Clemson 26. Arkansas
7. Notre Dame 17. Missouri 27. Utah
8. UCLA 18. Georgia 28. Mississippi St
9. Florida St 19. Arizona St 29. Texas
10. Oregon 20. Wisconsin 30. Michigan
I find this list absolutely fascinating to contemplate, which is why I post it. At Following Football, we do NOT rank football teams until somewhen in mid-October at the earliest. What we do do is group teams into what we call "tiers"; eventually there'll be about twenty tiers, A through T or so, even when they're ranked (that's also how we project game outcomes) but at the very beginning of the season? We'll divide them up into two, three, four tiers...then six or seven...then maybe eight or ten..until we have enough information to rank them all, #1-127. (UAB football, rest in peace.)
But about THIS list? Look at these crunchy tidbits!
> Auburn 3 and Alabama 4? Delicious!
> OSU deserves #1, but MSU isn't very far behind at #5...
> Baylor at 2 and TCU way back at 6? But TCU's the one bringing their QB back!
> How about this one? Everett Golson goes to perennial playoff contender Florida St, #9... but the team he left is #7!
> Look at the Pac-12! UCLA #8, Oregon #10, Stanford #11, Arizona #13, USC #14, and Arizona State at #19! (Even Utah sneaking in at 27!) THAT will be a packed conference!
> The "Group of Five" better figure out a way to defeat Boise State! They start the season ranked this year...even a loss or two may not knock them out of the top non-Power spot! (Only BYU sits on the list, at #23, to challenge.)
> Oklahoma 22 and Okee State 25? Fun!
> Arkansas 26 and Texas 29? (Or OU/UT? Or...)
> And look who they've got sneaking in at #30! High hopes, indeed, Mr. Harbaugh!
However, Sports Illustrated doesn't think so, and they've put out their "post-spring camp Top 25" plus five more, and it's an interesting list to peruse...
1. Ohio State 11. Stanford 21. Georgia Tech
2. Baylor 12. Ole Miss 22. Oklahoma
3. Auburn 13. Arizona 23. BYU
4. Alabama 14. USC 24. LSU
5. Michigan St 15. Boise State 25. Oklahoma St
6. TCU 16. Clemson 26. Arkansas
7. Notre Dame 17. Missouri 27. Utah
8. UCLA 18. Georgia 28. Mississippi St
9. Florida St 19. Arizona St 29. Texas
10. Oregon 20. Wisconsin 30. Michigan
I find this list absolutely fascinating to contemplate, which is why I post it. At Following Football, we do NOT rank football teams until somewhen in mid-October at the earliest. What we do do is group teams into what we call "tiers"; eventually there'll be about twenty tiers, A through T or so, even when they're ranked (that's also how we project game outcomes) but at the very beginning of the season? We'll divide them up into two, three, four tiers...then six or seven...then maybe eight or ten..until we have enough information to rank them all, #1-127. (UAB football, rest in peace.)
But about THIS list? Look at these crunchy tidbits!
> Auburn 3 and Alabama 4? Delicious!
> OSU deserves #1, but MSU isn't very far behind at #5...
> Baylor at 2 and TCU way back at 6? But TCU's the one bringing their QB back!
> How about this one? Everett Golson goes to perennial playoff contender Florida St, #9... but the team he left is #7!
> Look at the Pac-12! UCLA #8, Oregon #10, Stanford #11, Arizona #13, USC #14, and Arizona State at #19! (Even Utah sneaking in at 27!) THAT will be a packed conference!
> The "Group of Five" better figure out a way to defeat Boise State! They start the season ranked this year...even a loss or two may not knock them out of the top non-Power spot! (Only BYU sits on the list, at #23, to challenge.)
> Oklahoma 22 and Okee State 25? Fun!
> Arkansas 26 and Texas 29? (Or OU/UT? Or...)
> And look who they've got sneaking in at #30! High hopes, indeed, Mr. Harbaugh!
Wednesday, April 15, 2015
Here's an array of (American) football topics on the front burner this morning...
The big story, of course, is that New England's former star receiver Aaron Hernandez has been found GUILTY in the murder of his associate Odin Lloyd by a jury of twelve. 130 witnesses took the stand in one of the most well-assembled cases in high-profile history (as OJ Simpson followers would agree). The verdict carries an automatic life without parole sentence, which makes all the other charges, well, kinda moot.
In the world of normal football kind of stuff...Pete Thamel of SI.com has a great interview with Ohio State guru Urban Meyer on their QB situation and much more...The rumors about San Diego trading Philip Rivers for, essentially, Marcus Mariota are discussed by MMQB icon Peter King...The Detroit Lions' front seven keeps adjusting, as now they're sending George Johnson back to Tampa Bay....and finally, shocker-of-shockers, the Cleveland Browns players are saying yeah, they noticed that Johnny Football/Manziel didn't seem to be too focused on his actual profession last year, so rehab wasn't a huge surprise. How anyone can be surprised by Manziel's struggles on and off the field is what would shock me. The kid had trouble stamped all over him, and if it hadn't been that Cleveland desperately needed to take a chance in order to try hitting a home run, drafting would've made no sense at all. It was a risk - probably not worth a first round draft choice, but then, go big if you want to get big, I suppose.
I wouldn't have done it.
In the world of normal football kind of stuff...Pete Thamel of SI.com has a great interview with Ohio State guru Urban Meyer on their QB situation and much more...The rumors about San Diego trading Philip Rivers for, essentially, Marcus Mariota are discussed by MMQB icon Peter King...The Detroit Lions' front seven keeps adjusting, as now they're sending George Johnson back to Tampa Bay....and finally, shocker-of-shockers, the Cleveland Browns players are saying yeah, they noticed that Johnny Football/Manziel didn't seem to be too focused on his actual profession last year, so rehab wasn't a huge surprise. How anyone can be surprised by Manziel's struggles on and off the field is what would shock me. The kid had trouble stamped all over him, and if it hadn't been that Cleveland desperately needed to take a chance in order to try hitting a home run, drafting would've made no sense at all. It was a risk - probably not worth a first round draft choice, but then, go big if you want to get big, I suppose.
I wouldn't have done it.
Tuesday, March 10, 2015
Good review of where the colleges are...
As is often the case, ESPN is on top of the college spring practice scene, and more importantly, where teams are leaning as we look ahead to the fall. This piece by their Pac-12 man (and college go-to-guy!) Ted Miller does a great job surveying the landscape and looking at the BIG PICTURE in FBS football, as of March 2015!
Also, Heather Dinich writes a really great piece about where the current thinking is regarding out-of-conference scheduling - why the Big 12 schools are taking a risk (SMU, Lamar, and Rice? Really, Baylor?), while the Big Ten has the right idea (in my mind) with their 1910 plan - 1 major non-conference game, 9 conference games, 1 championship game, 0 FCS patsies scheduled.
Perfect.
No one's demanding you play a top ten school every week, big boys. Remember, there is no preseason in college football. Your first warm-up game counts! When Boise played "at" Ole Miss in August last year and lost, that game counted against them - it took a semi-perfect run of the table in October and November to get them back into New Year's Six contention. You lose that first game, you're in trouble - so if your first game is against the Little Sisters Of The Poor, Ohio State, I'll grant you that.
Just not the other two non-cons, okay? Play real teams.
Finally, there's a nice piece (also by Heather Dinich) which discusses the College Football Playoff system's successes and failures last year with the movers and shakers, decides that the former far outweighs the latter (and that they were burned by the constant 'tinkering' of the BCS formats), and that there won't be any changes in the near future to the CFP process. Four teams. Committee, some advance polls (maybe slight adjustments as to the when and how often), and no changes. The key word in the article is patience.
Also, Heather Dinich writes a really great piece about where the current thinking is regarding out-of-conference scheduling - why the Big 12 schools are taking a risk (SMU, Lamar, and Rice? Really, Baylor?), while the Big Ten has the right idea (in my mind) with their 1910 plan - 1 major non-conference game, 9 conference games, 1 championship game, 0 FCS patsies scheduled.
Perfect.
No one's demanding you play a top ten school every week, big boys. Remember, there is no preseason in college football. Your first warm-up game counts! When Boise played "at" Ole Miss in August last year and lost, that game counted against them - it took a semi-perfect run of the table in October and November to get them back into New Year's Six contention. You lose that first game, you're in trouble - so if your first game is against the Little Sisters Of The Poor, Ohio State, I'll grant you that.
Just not the other two non-cons, okay? Play real teams.
Finally, there's a nice piece (also by Heather Dinich) which discusses the College Football Playoff system's successes and failures last year with the movers and shakers, decides that the former far outweighs the latter (and that they were burned by the constant 'tinkering' of the BCS formats), and that there won't be any changes in the near future to the CFP process. Four teams. Committee, some advance polls (maybe slight adjustments as to the when and how often), and no changes. The key word in the article is patience.
Thursday, January 15, 2015
Comparing the final rankings...
It's always interesting to compare opinions, especially when the entire point of sports is to enjoy the competition between your guys and their guys and in doing so, comparing the two teams - and in the context of an entire season, comparing your guys to a slough of "their guys" and deciding how far up the ladder your guys are. (Ladies: "guys" is meant as a unisex term here.)
So, with that in mind, here's a list based on the Following Football #1-128 tiered ranking system that includes the final poll from the AP writers, the Sagaring rating system (if you need a primer in the Sagarin system, let me know!), the Massey Index (which compares and compiles 91 different computer and human ranking systems and then provides us with (for lack of a better term) a 'consensus' result), and the Superlist, which combines the six known meta-lists and gives us a different kind of consensus!
(The Sagarin rating and rank are in red simply to make the two connect visually better. The actual Sagarin rankings include the FCS teams: Eastern Michigan is really #208 in the country, out of 252! Also, the letters on the Massey rankings are tiers, just like FF uses: while these come from our hand, they're denoting the natural breaks in the totals - where there's a big gap between schools and where the groupings are.)
So, with that in mind, here's a list based on the Following Football #1-128 tiered ranking system that includes the final poll from the AP writers, the Sagaring rating system (if you need a primer in the Sagarin system, let me know!), the Massey Index (which compares and compiles 91 different computer and human ranking systems and then provides us with (for lack of a better term) a 'consensus' result), and the Superlist, which combines the six known meta-lists and gives us a different kind of consensus!
(The Sagarin rating and rank are in red simply to make the two connect visually better. The actual Sagarin rankings include the FCS teams: Eastern Michigan is really #208 in the country, out of 252! Also, the letters on the Massey rankings are tiers, just like FF uses: while these come from our hand, they're denoting the natural breaks in the totals - where there's a big gap between schools and where the groupings are.)
| Final | Final | Final | Final | |||||
| Final | Final | Sagarin | Massey | Superlist | AP | |||
| Ranking | Team | Conf | Record | rating | Ranking | Ranking | rank | |
| A1 | Ohio St | b10 | 14-1 | 100.81 | 1 | A1 | 1 | 1 |
| A2 | Oregon | pac | 13-2 | 95.71 | 4 | A2 | 2 | 2 |
| A3 | Alabama | sec | 12-2 | 96.83 | 3 | A3 | 3 | 4 |
| A4 | Florida St | acc | 13-1 | 84.86 | 16 | B7 | 6 | 5T |
| A5 | TCU | b12 | 12-1 | 99.58 | 2 | A4 | 4 | 3 |
| B06 | Michigan St | b10 | 11-2 | 93.36 | 6 | B+5 | 5 | 5T |
| B07 | Baylor | b12 | 11-2 | 90.57 | 7 | B8 | 8 | 7 |
| B08 | Georgia Tech | acc | 11-3 | 87.42 | 12 | C09 | 11 | 8 |
| B09 | Mississippi St | sec | 10-3 | 89.19 | 9 | C12 | 14 | 11 |
| B10 | Georgia | sec | 10-3 | 95.13 | 5 | B6 | 7 | 9 |
| B11 | UCLA | pac | 10-3 | 84.71 | 17 | C11 | 9 | 10 |
| C12 | Ole Miss | sec | 9-4 | 89.82 | 8 | C10 | 10 | 17 |
| C13 | Missouri | sec | 11-3 | 85.06 | 15 | D13 | 13 | 14 |
| C14 | Kansas St | b12 | 9-4 | 84.48 | 19 | E20 | 24 | 18 |
| C15 | Clemson | acc | 10-3 | 87.03 | 13 | D15 | 12 | 15 |
| C16 | Wisconsin | b10 | 11-3 | 83.48 | 21 | D14 | 15 | 13 |
| C17 | Auburn | sec | 8-5 | 88.40 | 11 | E16 | 17 | 22 |
| D18 | Boise St | mw | 12-2 | 77.43 | 36 | E17 | 19 | 16 |
| D19 | Arizona St | pac | 10-3 | 81.96 | 25 | E19 | 16 | 12 |
| D20 | USC | pac | 9-4 | 84.19 | 20 | E18 | 18 | 20 |
| D21 | Arizona | pac | 10-4 | 77.76 | 33 | E22 | 20 | 19 |
| D22 | LSU | sec | 8-5 | 85.53 | 14 | F25 | 26 | |
| D23 | Utah | pac | 9-4 | 82.75 | 23 | F26 | 23 | 21 |
| E24 | Texas A&M | sec | 8-5 | 82.82 | 22 | G29 | 27 | |
| E25 | Stanford | pac | 8-5 | 84.61 | 18 | F24 | 22 | |
| E26 | Arkansas | sec | 7-6 | 88.48 | 10 | F23 | 21 | |
| E27 | Nebraska | b10 | 9-4 | 81.09 | 29 | G28 | 30 | |
| E28 | Oklahoma | b12 | 8-5 | 81.47 | 27 | G30 | 31 | |
| E29 | Louisville | acc | 9-4 | 80.60 | 30 | G27 | 28 | 24 |
| E30 | Marshall | cusa | 13-1 | 82.36 | 24 | E21 | 25 | 23 |
| E31 | Notre Dame | ind | 8-5 | 79.83 | 31 | H+32 | 32 | |
| E32 | Minnesota | b10 | 8-5 | 76.17 | 37 | H34 | 35 | |
| E33 | Duke | acc | 9-4 | 74.99 | 41 | I40 | 40 | |
| F34 | Florida | sec | 7-5 | 81.48 | 26 | H+31 | 29 | |
| F35 | South Carolina | sec | 7-6 | 77.56 | 35 | I39 | 38 | |
| F36 | Colorado St | mw | 10-3 | 69.51 | 60 | I38 | 37 | |
| F37 | Memphis | aac | 10-3 | 76.11 | 38 | H33 | 34 | 25 |
| G38 | West Virginia | b12 | 7-6 | 78.53 | 32 | I+36 | 36 | |
| G39 | Washington | pac | 8-6 | 74.34 | 43 | J+43 | 39 | |
| G40 | Cincinnati | aac | 8-4 | 71.48 | 55 | J46 | 53 | |
| G41 | Miami-FL | acc | 6-7 | 75.08 | 40 | K49 | 51 | |
| G42 | Utah St | mw | 10-4 | 72.70 | 49 | J+41 | 45 | |
| H43 | North Carolina St | acc | 8-5 | 73.21 | 45 | J+42 | 42 | |
| H44 | Maryland | b10 | 7-6 | 72.39 | 52 | K54 | 48 | |
| H45 | Tennessee | sec | 7-6 | 81.39 | 28 | H35 | 33 | |
| H46 | Northern Illinois | mac | 11-3 | 68.08 | 65 | K53 | 54 | |
| H47 | Rutgers | b10 | 8-5 | 70.53 | 59 | J47 | 41 | |
| H48 | Penn St | b10 | 7-6 | 73.55 | 44 | K55 | 49 | |
| H49 | Air Force | mw | 10-3 | 67.79 | 69 | J45 | 47 | |
| I50 | Texas | b12 | 6-7 | 72.42 | 51 | K51 | 52 | |
| I51 | Oklahoma St | b12 | 7-6 | 72.46 | 50 | K50 | 44 | |
| I52 | Iowa | b10 | 7-6 | 73.13 | 46 | L+57 | 56 | |
| I53 | Boston College | acc | 7-6 | 74.36 | 42 | J48 | 50 | |
| I54 | Kentucky | sec | 5-7 | 73.04 | 47 | M70 | 64 | |
| J55 | Central Florida | aac | 9-4 | 71.18 | 56 | K56 | 61 | |
| J56 | East Carolina | aac | 8-5 | 69.44 | 62 | L62 | 69 | |
| J57 | BYU | ind | 8-5 | 71.61 | 53 | K52 | 55 | |
| J58 | Louisiana Tech | cusa | 9-5 | 77.57 | 34 | I37 | 46 | |
| J59 | Virginia Tech | acc | 7-6 | 75.30 | 39 | J44 | 43 | |
| J60 | Navy | ind | 8-5 | 68.05 | 66 | L+58 | 57 | |
| K61 | North Carolina | acc | 6-7 | 67.60 | 70 | M69 | 63 | |
| K62 | Georgia Southern | sun | 9-3 | 69.47 | 61 | L59 | 62 | |
| K63 | UL-Lafayette | sun | 9-4 | 66.68 | 71 | M66 | 67 | |
| K64 | Western Kentucky | cusa | 8-5 | 66.24 | 73 | L64 | 70 | |
| Final | Final | Sagarin | Massey | Superlist | ||||
| Ranking | Team | Conf | Record | rating | Ranking | Ranking | ||
| K65 | California | pac | 5-7 | 71.55 | 54 | M65 | 58 | |
| K66 | Oregon St | pac | 5-7 | 66.05 | 75 | N76 | 71 | |
| K67 | Michigan | b10 | 5-7 | 70.70 | 58 | L63 | 59 | |
| L68 | Western Michigan | mac | 8-5 | 64.84 | 80 | N75 | 78 | |
| L69 | Houston | aac | 8-5 | 67.89 | 68 | M-71 | 75 | |
| L70 | Pitt | acc | 6-7 | 70.86 | 57 | M68 | 72 | |
| L71 | Illinois | b10 | 6-7 | 65.10 | 77 | N+73 | 73 | |
| L72 | Nevada | mw | 7-6 | 64.28 | 81 | N+74 | 74 | |
| L73 | Toledo | mac | 9-4 | 68.01 | 67 | L61 | 65 | |
| M74 | Texas Tech | b12 | 4-8 | 66.48 | 72 | O+78 | 77 | |
| M75 | Virginia | acc | 5-7 | 72.79 | 48 | L60 | 60 | |
| M76 | Rice | cusa | 8-5 | 68.39 | 64 | M67 | 66 | |
| M77 | San Diego St | mw | 7-6 | 64.12 | 82 | N-77 | 79 | |
| M78 | Northwestern | b10 | 5-7 | 69.29 | 63 | M-72 | 68 | |
| N79 | Temple | aac | 6-6 | 65.00 | 79 | O81 | 83 | |
| N80 | Bowling Green | mac | 8-6 | 57.13 | 98 | P89 | 90 | |
| N81 | Arkansas St | sun | 7-6 | 65.04 | 78 | P+83 | 86 | |
| N82 | Central Michigan | mac | 7-6 | 62.07 | 87 | P86 | 88 | |
| O83 | Fresno St | mw | 6-8 | 59.13 | 92 | P88 | 85 | |
| O84 | UTEP | cusa | 7-6 | 61.44 | 89 | O82 | 80 | |
| O85 | UAB | cusa | 6-6 | 65.30 | 76 | O+79 | 82 | |
| O86 | Washington St | pac | 3-9 | 66.18 | 74 | O80 | 76 | |
| O87 | Texas St | sun | 7-5 | 58.75 | 93 | P90 | 92 | |
| O88 | Appalachian St | sun | 7-5 | 61.82 | 88 | P87 | 95 | |
| O89 | Kansas | b12 | 3-9 | 58.31 | 94 | Q95 | 91 | |
| O90 | Syracuse | acc | 3-9 | 62.97 | 84 | P91 | 87 | |
| O91 | South Alabama | sun | 6-7 | 55.89 | 104 | Q96 | 98 | |
| P92 | Purdue | b10 | 4-8 | 62.34 | 86 | Q94 | 94 | |
| P93 | Ohio | mac | 6-6 | 54.80 | 107 | R099 | 104 | |
| P94 | Middle Tennessee | cusa | 6-6 | 60.79 | 91 | P+84 | 84 | |
| P95 | Colorado | pac | 2-10 | 62.93 | 85 | Q+93 | 93 | |
| P96 | Iowa St | b12 | 2-10 | 61.38 | 90 | R+97 | 96 | |
| Q097 | UL-Monroe | sun | 4-8 | 55.96 | 103 | S107 | 108 | |
| Q098 | Ball St | mac | 5-7 | 57.68 | 96 | R102 | 105 | |
| Q099 | Wyoming | mw | 4-8 | 56.46 | 102 | R098 | 97 | |
| Q100 | Buffalo | mac | 5-6 | 53.54 | 110 | S108 | 114 | |
| Q101 | Wake Forest | acc | 3-9 | 56.50 | 101 | S+103 | 102 | |
| Q102 | Indiana | b10 | 3-9 | 64.04 | 83 | P+85 | 81 | |
| R103 | Hawai'i | mw | 4-9 | 56.78 | 100 | S106 | 101 | |
| R104 | Old Dominion | cusa | 6-6 | 58.08 | 95 | Q+92 | 89 | |
| R105 | South Florida | aac | 4-8 | 52.68 | 114 | S109 | 110 | |
| R106 | New Mexico | mw | 4-8 | 55.18 | 105 | R101 | 99 | |
| R107 | Vanderbilt | sec | 3-9 | 57.14 | 97 | R100 | 100 | |
| R108 | FIU | cusa | 4-8 | 56.99 | 99 | S104 | 106 | |
| S109 | Florida Atlantic | cusa | 3-9 | 53.75 | 109 | T+112 | 111 | |
| S110 | Akron | mac | 5-7 | 54.86 | 106 | S110 | 112 | |
| S111 | Tulane | aac | 3-9 | 53.29 | 112 | T+111 | 107 | |
| S112 | Army | ind | 4-8 | 51.59 | 117 | T116 | 116 | |
| S113 | North Texas | cusa | 4-8 | 52.95 | 113 | T115 | 113 | |
| S114 | Southern Miss | cusa | 3-9 | 53.54 | 111 | T113 | 115 | |
| T115 | San Jose St | mw | 3-9 | 52.04 | 115 | T114 | 109 | |
| T116 | UT-San Antonio | sun | 4-7 | 54.31 | 108 | S105 | 103 | |
| T117 | Miami-OH | mac | 2-10 | 50.26 | 118 | U120 | 121 | |
| T118 | Troy | sun | 3-9 | 46.10 | 123 | U122 | 122 | |
| T119 | Tulsa | aac | 2-10 | 48.43 | 119 | U118 | 118 | |
| T120 | UNLV | mw | 2-11 | 46.94 | 121 | U121 | 119 | |
| U121 | Kent St | mac | 2-9 | 47.47 | 120 | U119 | 120 | |
| U122 | U Massachusetts | mac | 3-9 | 51.69 | 116 | U117 | 117 | |
| U123 | U Conn | aac | 2-10 | 44.70 | 125 | V+123 | 123 | |
| U124 | Idaho | sun | 1-10 | 46.66 | 122 | V125 | 127 | |
| U125 | Eastern Michigan | mac | 2-10 | 38.77 | 128 | V126 | 126 | |
| U126 | SMU | aac | 1-11 | 39.15 | 127 | V124 | 124 | |
| V127 | New Mexico St | sun | 2-10 | 45.20 | 124 | V127 | 125 | |
| V128 | Georgia St | sun | 1-11 | 41.00 | 126 | V-128 | 128 |
A few interesting things to notice: Yes, Ohio State gets #1 in all systems, but not really unanimously. TCU actually had the highest Sagarin rating by two full points before the Buckeye beatdown on Oregon's finest...Florida State's position is as uncertain as ever: we still have them fourth, since we had them top four and in the playoff before it started; but some organizations drop them out of the top four, and in fact their rankings range from 4 down to 16!...Michigan State's in the top six in every system. Big month for the B1G!...Lotta love for Marshall in the final analysis - top 25 in all set-ups except ours...Also hard to believe the last place team in a division could be in the top 25, but Arkansas' annihilation of Texas and the last few games of their season is pushing their stock up into the high twenties!...Florida, Tennessee, Virginia Tech, and Louisiana Tech are all getting much higher rankings from all of the other systems than we gave them: I guess we're going to have to take another look, aren't we?...Certain combinations you tend to look for automatically, right? Nebraska finished ahead of Oklahoma across the board; Michigan is generally ahead of their directional schools, especially up-and-coming Western Michigan...Speaking of Broncos, how about Boise State, carrying the banner for the small programs once again - the first non-power conference team to win three BCS/New Year's Six games (only one to PLAY in that many, too!)...If this really was Alabama-Birmingham's last year of football, they fared commendably: 6-6, with every ranking between 76 and 85....The dis-honor of the lowest Power Conference team goes to Wake Forest, although within the FF rankings, Vanderbilt fell below the Demon Deacons....And, as always, the Bottom Twelve or so are set in concrete, with virtually identical membership from all four rating systems (Army gets its nose in twelfth from the bottom on the Sagarin scale) - Miami - OH, Troy, Tulsa, UNLV, Kent St, UMass, UConn, Idaho, Eastern Michigane, SMU, New Mexico St, and last place holder, Georgia St. A lack of sincerity in our congratulations to ALL of you!
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