Weekend Wesults!

NOT a great weekend for the prognosticators!

In the CFL, we went 2-2, with both Montreal and British Columbia pulling major upsets on Friday night. Of course, it wasn't just us - Jamie Nye of CFL.ca went the same 2-2, and the oddsmakers actually went 1-3, choosing Winnipeg over Ottawa for some reason. Only Edmonton's win helped them salvage a game.... So, with two weeks left, we're fairly locked in at about the 80% mark in the CFL pundits' pool, but we're floating just one game behind Nye (42 to 43 correct), and that's what we're hoping to catch in these last eight chances before the playoffs. (We chose the same four winners last week, so no chance to catch up.) Our Record is 42-31 straight up, 42-29-2 against the spread. 

In the NFL, everyone blew chunks this week! Discounting tonight's Arizona game, we went 5-8 against the odds makers...but both Sagarin and ELO (538) predicted two winners out of thirteen against the spread! Actually, the Following Football tiers went 7-5-1, far better than all other contenders...except we thought we knew better in a few cases, and picked against them. Whoops.
Straight up winners, we all went 9-4, for what it's worth. Our Record is 70-32 straight up, 60-41 against the spread.

And in college ball, we went 25-21-1 against the actual Vegas spreads (on FBS only games, the only place you have spreads in Vegas), and straight up, a pretty solid 39-8. Then, in the FCS games, where we're basically inventing a spread based on the Sagarin ratings, the HERO Sports predictions, and our own Following Football tier system forecasts, our prognostications were saved by going 7-0 against our spread in the Historically Black College conferences, meaning we went 30-24 overall ATS. In picking winners, we were 39-15, with lots of upsets in the Colonial (poor James Madison in particular, who had ESPN there and everything, only to get beaten by Richmond 59-49!) and the Pioneer (also 2-3 straight up, including a loss by league-leader Jacksonville). Our Record now is 600-167 straight up and 361-305 (dropping pushes) against the spread.

Prophecies...

NFL games for week 7... Because everyone's favoring the same team, it was quicker to just write down the margin, rather than the team each time...

Home		Away		Vegas Line	Sagarin	ELO point spread	FF Ratings	My Pick
49ers		Seahawks		SEA 6	5.1	2.5	E/C (1)	SF covers
Jaguars (LOND)		Bills		BUF 4.5	9.4	8	H/C (10)	BUF +
Lions		Vikings		MIN 2.5	0.8	pick'm	G/C (5)	D covers
Colts		Saints		IND 4.5	4.3	5.5	G/F (1)	NO covers
Chiefs		Steelers		PIT 2	3.7	2.5	E/B (3)	KC covers
Dolphins		Texans		MIA 4.5	5.4	2.5	F/G (5)	MIA +
Patriots		Jets		NE 9	9.6	11.5	A/D (9)	NE +
Rams		Browns		STL 6	4.1	5	D/F (7)	CL covers
Titans		Falcons		ATL 4	6.8	6	H/B (9)	ATL +
Redskins		Buccaneers		WAS 3.5	7.5	3	E/H (9)	WASH +
Chargers		Raiders		SD 4	5.2	6	D/F (7)	SD +
Giants		Cowboys		NYG 4.5	2.5	1.5	C/F (9)	NYG +
Panthers		Eagles		CAR 3.5	0.5	4.5	A/D (9)	CAR +
Cardinals		Ravens		ARZ 7.5	7.5	6	B/E (9)	ARZ +

CANADIAN Week 18...

	Week 18		(Oct 23-24)		Rating
Date	Away Team (record)	rating	Home Team (record)	rating	Difference
23-Oct	Montreal (5-10)	24.8	Toronto (9-6)	29.4	10.6>
23-Oct	Hamilton (10-5)	38.8	BC Lions (5-10)	28.9	<3.9
24-Oct	Ottawa (9-6)	25.9	Winnipeg (5-11)	25.1	5.2>
24-Oct	Edmonton (12-4)	35.8	Saskatchewan(2-13)	23.7	<6.1
		BYE:	Calgary (12-4)	38.4

We like TORONTO by about that ten point margin; HAMILTON by more than that four point gap; OTTAWA to take out Winnipeg despite the ratings, and EDMONTON to run all over the RoughRiders by way more than six. With three weeks left in the season, by the way, all the teams with 9-12 wins are guaranteed playoff spots, and the three teams with five wins are fighting it out for the last of the six slots in the post-season tournament.


College games this weekend... By conference...

ACC: Game of the week) Clemson @ Miami-FL (+6.5) - We think the Tigers are the class of the ACC; take them and give the points.

Upset alert) Take Duke (+3) at Virginia Tech.

The rest) Except where we think UVA will cover +18 against North Carolina, we have the favorites covering EVERY other game.

BIG TEN: Game of the week) The only near-upset we see is Northwestern (+9) @ Nebraska, where we see the Wildcats covering.

The rest) Except Ohio State, whom we STILL don't trust, we went favorites throughout here, too.

BIG TWELVE: Game of the week) Kansas St @ Texas (-4) - Don't know if the purple will beat the Horns again as it did two weeks ago, but we see them covering and very possibly winning. Flip a coin.

The rest) Not sure if OK St will cover, but the rest of the favorites will - even 37-point fave Baylor.

INDEPENDENTS: Game of the week) No one cares about Army at Rice (take Rice -7), but we're astounded by the Wagner @ BYU game. Wagner is a winless FCS team...Vegas wouldn't place a line on it (by policy - they don't bet FCS), but Sagarin has this as a 57.1 point margin, and even our tiers have it as 53 points - and we've never seen 53 on our system before! If anything, too, our tiers are too conservative, so heaven help the Seahawks Saturday...

PAC TWELVE: Games of the week) Cal-Berkeley @ UCLA (-3.5) [the coastal big brother/little brother Ursine Showdown has one-loss Cal underdogs at the Bruins - so does our system, by the way, but we're still thinking the Bears will cover] and Utah @ USC (-3.5) [again, the better record is the dog to the big name, but we don't see USC winning this one - Utah covers and stays unbeaten.]

The rest) Don't care. Stanford, Arizona, and Oregon St will win, though.

SEC: Game of the week) Texas A&M @ Ole Miss (-5.5). Once again, the Aggies go into hostile territory as a slight dog; we think they'll fare better this time, because the Rebels ain't 'Bama...Besides, that'll make my pastor happy...

Upset alert) Auburn (+5.5) over Arkansas. The Tigers may not be Top Ten any more but they're still durn good.

The rest) We like Missouri and Mississippi St to cover.

AMERICAN: Game of the week) Also our Upset Alert: Temple (+3) wins at East Carolina Thursday.

The rest) Houston, Memphis, and Navy keep rolling along, winning and covering.

CONFERENCE USA: Louisiana Tech is favored by seven over Middle Tennessee, and we see them winning by more than that to stay afloat in the West to meet WKU, who goes out of conference to challenge LSU this weekend. (Good luck - here's hoping for a Memphis/Ole Miss kinda day...)

Upset Alert) Just for fun, let's pick UTEP (+6) over Florida International. 

The rest) We keep forgetting Marshall's still 6-1 and undefeated in conference, even though they've not been Thundering this year. They win and cover again.

#MACTION: Game of the week) More like "Bet of the week" - we're really high on Toledo, as you know, and to see them only -14.5 against U Mass? Take it! Double it! Bet the house on it!

The rest) We don't see any upsets this week - take the faves and the points across the board, especially Northern Illinois over poor EMU.

MOUNTAIN WEST: Game of the week) Utah St @ San Diego St (+5.5) Friday night, matching up the leaders of each division. Boise's hoping for an Aztec win, while everyone in the West has two losses more than SDSU. We think the Aggies suffer a let down this week and San Diego State wins.

Upset alert) Wyoming (+35) over Boise State! Just kidding. Don't know if they cover or not, though.

The rest) Nothing really stands out. We do like Nevada beating Hawaii (+7.5) handily, though.

SUN BELT: Game of the week) EVERY GAME ON EVERY METRIC WE HAVE is in SINGLE DIGITS this week! We should have a whole conference full of games of the week in the Conference that Man Forgot!
-- We didn't pick a winner in last night's game (Ark St beat ULL by ten; they were favored by nine.)
-- We like Georgia Southern to cover @ Appalachian St (-5.5), although ASU wins.
-- We'll take Idaho (+2) and South Alabama (+3.5) to at least cover against UL-Monroe and Texas St, respectively, and we see Troy handling NMSU (no line posted).

MISSOURI VALLEY: Game of the week)  If you like close, watch Youngstown St @ Southern Illinois. Sagarin has it 0.8 in YSU's favor; our tiers have it one point in SIU's favor, and Hero Sports calls it a pick'm game! Both 1-2 in the toughest conference in FCS football... flip a coin!

The rest) Illinois St by 3 over Western Illinoi, NDSU by 3 over Indiana St, South Dakota by 14 over Missouri St, and South Dakota St by 8 over Northern Iowa.

BIG SKY: Game of the week) We'll take Portland State winning @ Cal Poly SLO, although we do have a soft spot for Idaho State winning @ Sacramento State, as it's my son's alma mater against mine...

Weird Game Alert) For some reason, Montana State is hosting East Tennessee St, the first year semi-independent school yet to win a game this year. Picking the Bobcats by 28+, not that it's a limb we're going out on...

The rest) EWU by 13 over Northern Colorado, UM by 7 over North Dakota, Northern Arizona should beat Weber State, and Southern Utah big over UC Davis.

COLONIAL: Game of the week: Richmond @ James Madison, where we see JMU continuing undefeated and winning by 10+.

Upset Alert) There are no Vegas odds to base this on, but Towson beating Villanova, even at home, would probably be considered an upset by most.

The rest) New Hampshire over Delaware by 9, Stony Brook eeks out a win over Maine, and William & Mary by 21 over Hampton (Hampton?).

SOUTHLAND: Game of the week) Probably Central Arkansas @ Lamar, two teams contending in the wake of unbeaten McNeese St and powerhouse Sam Houston St, both favored and who should both win by 21+ this Saturday. We'll take Lamar in this matchup, ignoring their down game against NW St last week as an aberration.

The rest) Abilene over Incarnate Word, and SE Louisiana routs Houston Baptist. But, who doesn't?

BIG SOUTH: Game of the week) Purely in interest alone - Kennesaw St @ Liberty. Liberty's been a ranked, solid team for years, and KSU just started football this year. BUT Kennesaw is already 6-1, on a diet of easy opponents to start and warming up into league play, while Liberty's been upset two weeks in a row and looks really vulnerable. Could the Owls win? If they do, suddenly, Coastal Carolina and Charleston Southern have to pay attention to the 2-0 in conference newcomers.

The rest) The aforementioned co-leaders should both win by 14+ this week.

SOUTHERN CONFERENCE: Game of the week) Either The Citadel @ Furman (we see the visiting Bulldogs as slight preferences) or Samford @ Western Carolina (we'll take THESE visiting Bulldogs, too!).

The rest) Chattanooga (@ Wofford) and Mercer (v VMI) are both 10+ point winners in our book.

NORTHEAST: Game of the week) It'll be interesting to see Bryant defeat Saint Francis - the old champ passing the torch? Maybe...

The rest) Duquesne over Robert Morris and Sacred Heart over CCSU; two very poor teams that it's easy to bet against.

And by the way) Speaking of very poor team that it's easy to bet against, wanna take Wagner +57 versus BYU Saturday?

OVC: Game of the week)  Nothing really stands out. If you like bloodshed, Jacksonville State over Austin Peay by 35+ comes to mind... (Sagarin has it 41.6 points; our tiers have it 33, which would be the highest in quite a while except for Wagner...)

The rest) The three other good teams in the conference, Eastern Illinois, Eastern Kentucky, and UT-Martin, should beat the three other not great teams, Tennessee Tech, Tennessee State, and Murray State (in that order) by 10 or more this weekend. (JVSt is the one great team; Austin Peay is the one bad team.)

pioneer league: game of the week) jacksonville over drake by 7 or so, while the other unbeaten, dayton, defeats butler by 14 or more.

the rest) marist over davidson by a td or more (davidson's terrible, but marist's not much better), and campbell might squeeze a victory out over morehead state.

in the terrible game of the week) valparaiso at home over stetson. when we said valpo/davidson would be 2-0, it ended up 42-35; let's predict 42-35 and see if this ends up 2-0...

IVY LEAGUE: Game of the week) Unbeaten Harvard over once-beaten Princeton by 10. 

The rest) Yale over Penn, Brown over Cornell, and Dartmouth throttles Columbia.

PATRIOT LEAGUE: Game of the week) Lafayette @ Holy Cross, both having difficult seasons. But we like HC to win this at home by ten or so.

The rest) Bucknell over Georgetown. and league-leader Fordham over Lehigh by ten.

MEAC: Game of the week) None. Sorry, there just aren't any compelling matchups this weekend. But Bethune-Cookman should beat Norfolk St by 10+, SC State over Delaware St by 14 or more, NC A&T over Howard by 21+, and NC Central beats Morgan State.

SWAC: Game of the week) S'pose it's always either Southern (favored over Texas Southern by 7) or Grambling State (favored over poor Mississippi Valley by 35+). There's also Jackson State beating Arkansas-Pine Bluff by more than 3...

Weekend Wesults

What a great weekend to be a football fan, as long as you have no affiliations!

If, however, you're a fan of the Seahawks, Boise State, Georgia Tech, Sacramento State, Texas A&M, Lamar, North Dakota St, Ball State, Ohio University, or Kansas State, you're probably drowning your sorrows in a beverage of your choice.

And if, heaven forbid, you're a Michigan Wolverine fan, the Suicide Prevention number is in the inside cover of your phone book.

Meanwhile, here's our record this weekend:

College Football) We went a decent 74-27 selecting winners (having missed selecting a few games by accident in our haste Thursday) and a more respectable 56-45 against the spread (including using what lines and oddsmakers we could scrounge up to make reasonable predictions with point spreads for the FCS games. Our total for the season: 522-144 selecting winners (down to 78%), 306-260 against the spread (up to 54%).

Canadian Football) The only game we missed was the one we were completely unsure on - Calgary at Toronto (we made a blind stab at the Argos, but Calgary won 27-15 instead). Meanwhile, Ottawa and Hamilton came through (and bought themselves playoff spots, as did Toronto in their loss), as did Edmonton, so we went 3-1 both ways and now sit at 40-29 overall and 40-27-2 against the spread.

National Football League) (So far, with two games still to go), we're at 7-5 ATS and 9-3 picking winners; for the year, that makes us 61-27 overall and 55-32 against the spread. For the record, we picked the Patriots to cover the 9 1/2 point spread, and tomorrow night we expect the Giants to cover the four point deficit and beat the Eagles.

Prophecies In Phootball for the First Weekend of October 2015!

EDITOR'S NOTE: We've updated the errors pointed out to us, as well as the ones we noticed ourselves, but we've promised not to change any predictions except the one we had the line wrong on originally (BYU/U Conn).

Let’s start with the big one! The Australian Football League Grand Final!

At about 10:45 pm Friday night, Mountain Time, you can go to afl.com.au and listen to the Grand Final between the two teams who had the best seasons top to bottom, and fairly unanimously the two best teams right now – the West Coast Eagles and the defending champion Hawthorn Hawks. (You can also get the video if you pay for it.) 

The difference? Hawthorn’s been there. West Coast hasn’t. We expect a classic game – high flying, high scoring, and one where a couple of key mistakes by the Eagles and a couple of key cash-ins from the Hawks means that Hawthorn becomes only the fifth team to win three consecutive titles.

Hawthorn 110, West Coast 88.

OUR PREDICTION RECORD: 149-56 overall (72%); 122-83 against the spread (59% "ATS"). We also currently LEAD our segment of the afl.com.au “tipping” (predicting) finals pool with just the one game to go next week. Crossing our fingers!

CFL

It’s Week 15, with six to go, five games for most teams. Here’s our forecasts for the four games up this weekend…and the one on Tuesday!

1-Oct	Montreal (5-7)	20	Ottawa (7-5)	23
2-Oct	Calgary (10-3)	33	Hamilton (8-4)	35
3-Oct	Edmonton (9-4)	27	Winnipeg (4-9)	10
3-Oct	Saskatchewan(2-11)	14	BC Lions (4-8)	27

PLUS the game on Tuesday, between Ottawa and Toronto, where Ottawa’s five-day turnaround and being on the road slays them in the second half and Toronto pulls away to win, 28-15.

OUR PREDICTION RECORD: 32-24 overall (57%), 3-1 this week; 30-24-2 ATS (56%)

NFL

Going to divide these up into two categories: yes, we’re confident in our picks!, and throw a dart at the board type picks… Some we feel good about, and some we don’t! But we pick every game, every week, by gum, and we won’t hesitate now!

Confident in our picks:

Ravens (-2.5) at Steelers: Pittsburgh to win outright! Vick is a quality backup, and they can run the ball.

Texans (+6.5) at Falcons: Atlanta to cover and win big. They’ve got it going right now.

Raiders (-3) at Bears: Chicago to cover and win. Every metric we have says so.

Chiefs (+3.5) at Bengals: Cincinnati wins and covers: see Atlanta’s comments. They need to make hay!

Panthers (-3) at Bucs: Carolina in a landslide! Cam will get the calls because Tampa’s QB’s even younger!

Rams (+7) at Cardinals: Cardinals by more than 7. The best team in football not owned by a town.

Vikings (+7) at Broncos: We think Denver has it figured out now. Broncos to cover.

Saints (-5.5) at Cowboys: I don’t care who QBs Dallas, the Saints are a mess. Dallas wins outright.

Throw a dart, flip a coin:

Jets (-1) “at” Dolphins in London: Jets win. We think.

Giants (+6) at Bills: We’re taking Buffalo and giving the points.

Jaguars (+9.5) at Colts: It just seems too high for the off-kilter Colts right now. Jax plus the points.

Eagles (-3) at Redskins: When in doubt, bet against the Redskins.

Browns (+7.5) at Chargers: That extra half-point tipped us towards the Browns to cover.

Packers (+9) at 49ers: Plus nine? That seems like a lot… We’ll take SF…no, we can’t. Packers.

Lions (+10) at Seahawks: Plus TEN? THAT’S too high. I think. Lions to cover only.

Guaranteed:

The Patriots will NOT win this weekend! And the Titans will NOT lose!

OUR PREDICTION RECORD: 30-17 straight up, 30-17 against the spread this season. (Both 64%.)

NCAA FBS:

AWRIGHT! The conference schedule is well underway starting this week, and there are some really lousy games in conference…and some really GREAT ones, too! Let’s give you the highlight games first, and then hit the rest of the conference games:

ACC – The highlight “ACC” game involves the conference’s new “adjunct” member, Notre Dame, coming to SC to play Clemson. The Irish are favored by half-a-point…take Clemson to win.

Other interesting games include BC @ Duke (-6.5) [take Duke to cover], Louisville @ NC State (+4.5) [NC State will win outright], North Carolina @ Georgia Tech (-7) [Tech by double digits], Pitt @ VaTech (-4.5) [VT covers], and Miami goes out of conference to play @ Cincinnati (+6) [Miami covers easily].

On the flip side, there’s also Florida St @ Wake Forest (+19), which isn’t enough…take FSU -19.

B1G – The highlight game? Well, there really isn’t one…Maybe it’s Minnesota @ Northwestern (-5), which would have been tilted the other way before the season. Now? Take the Wildcats -5.

Other games? Indiana @ Ohio State (-21) [hmm…tough call. In the end, OSU gets a cheap TD to cover], Michigan @ Maryland (+14) [easy: Wolverines are hot. Michigan and points.], Purdue @ Michigan St (-22) [Sparty will cover], Army @ Penn St (-26.5) [PSU wins big, but not THAT big!], Nebraska @ Illinois (+6.5) [we’re backing the Illini to cover only], and Iowa @ Wisconsin (-6.5) [don’t trust the Hawkeyes: UW to win and cover].

Big XII – To us, the best game of the Big 12’s weekend is West Virginia @ Oklahoma (-6.5). We’re bullish on the Sooners (we’ve got them in Tier A!) but WVU is good enough to keep it close. We say OU wins but WV covers.

The rest of the slate is full of interesting games, too! At the bottom end, Kansas @ Iowa St (-16) for the “wooden spoon”, as the Aussies would say. [too close to call! Can Iowa St push past sixteen? Can they SCORE sixteen? We were wrong last week siding with Kansas; let’s side against them and go for ISU to cover.], Baylor and Texas Tech (+15.5) in Jerryworld [Baylor runs up the score], Kansas St @ OK St (-8.5) [K-State wins outright!], and Texas @ TCU (-15) [poor Longhorns. This is all they need. If TCU wins by a lot more than 15, as we think they might, Charley Strong may not survive the weekend.].

PAC-12 – Our fave game this weekend is Arizona @ Stanford. We’ll get to see who and what’s real – is Stanford as good as the beatdown they gave USC? Is Arizona as weak as they looked last week? The line is Stanford -14, which is too many: Arizona covers but the Cardinal wins.

Other games are varied, some good, some dull: Washington St @ Cal (-19) [gut feeling: Golden Bears cover], Oregon @ Colorado (+8) [everyone’s down on Oregon, but Colorado can’t do to them what Utah did – take OU in a smackdown of frustration], and Arizona St @ UCLA (-13.5) [we have it higher on every metric – take UCLA!].

SEC – The BIG ONE! Alabama breaks its 72-game streak of being favored, going to Georgia (-2.5). Our metrics are all over the place on this one, and honestly we’re just looking forward to watching the game! We’re siding with Georgia, for an irrational reason: Mark Richt is the best Christian in the coaching fraternity, and we’d like to see him get “over the hump” this year, so to speak. Terrible theory, but it’s our blog, and we’ll do as we please!

The other games should be fun, too: Ole Miss @ Florida (+7.5) [Ole Miss is too good], Eastern Kentucky @ Kentucky(-26) [let’s say EKU stays close!] South Carolina @ Missouri (-3.5) [Mizzou covers], Arkansas @ Tennessee (-6) [our tiers have the Vols by 15!], Vanderbilt @ Middle Tennessee (-0.5) [should be a great game! We like Vandy – they’ve played well in their close games!], San Jose St @ Auburn (-19.5) [can’t believe the line’s only 19.5! Double it.], Eastern Michigan @ LSU (-44.5) [depends completely on your belief as to when they call off the Tigers…], and Mississippi St @ Texas A&M (+7) [can’t believe A&M’s not favored at home! Take the Aggies to win!].

The American! – You have to put the exclamation point in there! Sounds prouder! No real close games, but the best one involves new member Navy hosting military rival Air Force from the MWC, with the Naval Academy four point favorites. The winner of the round-robin tournament each year (including Army) wins the Commander-In-Chief’s Trophy, and these two teams are the overwhelming favorites, given Army’s hard times. In Annapolis, we believe in the Naval Academy to cover and take the trophy.

Elsewhere, UCF @ Tulane (-2) [wrong! UCF should win by about a TD!], East Carolina @ SMU (+5.5) [SMU’s better than they were last year – they should be closer. But we’ll hold our breath…], Memphis @ USF (+9.5) [double it. Memphis by 19 or more.], Temple @ Charlotte (+23.5) [we have faith in Temple. Lay the points.], UConn @ BYU (-19.5) [it's going to be a bit more - 20-30 point win for BYU], Houston @ Tulsa (+6) [double it: Houston by 12 or more].

Conference USA – By far, the most interesting and pivotal game is Western Kentucky @ Rice (+8), and as much as we’d love to see WKU run this string out, more than a TD’s too much. Rice to cover.

UTSA @ UTEP (+3.5) [El Paso wins this battle of initials], North Texas @ Southern Miss (-16) [too high – UNT covers], UL-Lafayette @ Louisiana Tech (-19) [also too high – ULL covers], Old Dominion @ Marshall (-19.5) [the Herd may not be Thundering like in years past, but they’ll thunder past that by halftime], and FIU @ U Mass (-3.5) [take Florida International to WIN outright].

#MACattack! – the hashtag is legally required… Several games of note, and we’ll single one out in each division: Bowling Green @ Buffalo (+9.5) in the East, and BGSU wins by LESS than 9; and Northern Illinois @ Central Michigan (+2) in the West, and we like NIU to win by much MORE than that.

The rest of the slate sees Ohio @ Akron (+2.5) [Ohio wins and covers], Miami-Ohio @ Kent St (-10.5) [too high – take Miami to cover], Toledo @ Ball St (+6.5) [it’s Toledo’s year – take them every time], and, to review, U Mass loses to FIU and Eastern Michigan routed by LSU. 

Mountain West – The battle for second in the Mountain division takes place in Logan, where Colorado St plays @ Utah St (-4.5). With QB gone, we’re leaning towards CSU to cover at least, although neither will be able to handle Boise in the weeks to come.

Speaking of which, Boise’s favored at home against Hawaii by 24.5? Yet every metric says it’ll be more than that, so take the Broncos on the Blue. New Mexico St @ New Mexico (-12.5) [NMSU is possibly the worst team in the FBS...; lay the points], Wyoming @ Appalachian St (+25.5) […unless it’s Wyoming. Lay the points.], UNLV @ Nevada (-6.5) [yes, it’s a rivalry, yes, throw the records out; bet Nevada-Reno and lay the points], and the other important game of the weekend in the MW, Fresno St @ San Diego St (-9) [too high: Fresno should keep it closer than nine points]. A reminder – Air Force loses to Navy, and SJSU loses at Auburn.

Sun Belt – The most interesting game won’t have much bearing on the title race, but South Alabama @ Troy (-6) has predictions all over the board. We’re going with our tier metric, which gives Troy the advantage.

Besides App St beating Wyoming and UL-Lafayette trailing LaTech, look for Idaho @ Arkansas St (-20) [Red Wolves cover], Georgia Southern @ UL-Monroe (+6) [GASO covers easily], and Liberty at Georgia St (+7) [which team knows how to win? Liberty covers].

OUR PREDICTION RECORD: 281-64 (81%) straight up, 188-155-2 against the spread (55%) this season.

NCAA – FCS

Here are the key games throughout the Division 1-AA (FCS) realm for this first weekend of October, and our predicted victors are in underlined boldface:

Missouri Valley –  Indiana St @ Missouri St by 5, North Dakota St @ South Dakota St by 3, Northern Iowa @ Illinois State by 5, Southern Illinois @ Western Illinois by 1, and Youngstown St @ South Dakota by 4.

Big Sky – Idaho State @ CalPoly SLO by 11, Montana @ UC Davis by 13, Montana St @ Northern Arizona by 9, North Dakota @ Portland St by 11, Northern Colorado @ Sacramento St by 11, Southern Utah @ Weber St by 1.

Colonial – Elon @ New Hampshire by 17, Stony Brook @ James Madison by 13, Maine @ Richmond by 14, William & Mary @ Delaware by 11, Albany @ Holy Cross by 4

Southland – Central Arkansas @ Abilene Christian by 8, Northwestern St @ Incarnate Word by 7, Sam Houston St v Stephen F Austin by 17, Lamar @ SE Louisiana by 1.

Big South – Alabama A&M @ Coastal Carolina by 34, Bryant @ Monmouth by 6, and Presbyterian @ Western Carolina by 3.

Southern Conference – Wofford @ Mercer by 7, Bucknell @ VMI by 1, McNeese St @ Nicholls St by 31, and South Carolina St @ Furman in overtime.

Northeast Conference – Central Connecticut St @ Duquesne by 18, St. Francis @ East Tennessee St by 3, and Wagner @ Robert Morris by 6. 

Ohio Valley – Eastern Illinois @ Austin Peay by 21, Mississippi Valley St @ Jacksonville St by 41,  Murray St @ SE Missouri St by 14, UT-Martin @ Tennessee Tech by 4.

Pioneer – Drake @ Campbell by 6, Dayton @ Stetson by 19, Jacksonville @ Morehead St by 18, Marist @ San Diego by 13, and in the game matching the two lowest ranked teams in all 253 Division I possibilities, somehow both Valparaiso @ Davidson will lose! (All right…Davidson loses 2-0.) 

Ivy League – Rhode Island @ Brown by 16, Columbia @ Princeton by 24, Dartmouth @ Penn by 17, Georgetown @ Harvard by 27, Yale @ Lehigh by 7.

Patriot League – Fordham @ Lafayette by 13, Colgate @ Cornell by 11, and we’ve covered all the others (Bucknell over VMI, Georgetown loses to Harvard, and Lehigh to Yale).

MEAC – Bethune-Cookman @ NC Central by 5, Florida A&M @ Savannah St by 3, despite being 0-4 themselves, Morgan St @ Delaware St by 7, NC A&T @ Hampton by 7, Norfolk St @ Howard by 5, and we mentioned SC State and Furman too close to call in regulation.

SWAC – Alabama St @ Texas Southern by 3, Alcorn St @ Ark-Pine Bluff by 18, and Grambling St @ Jackson St by 9.

There you have it – EVERY division 1 game predicted this time…not just “the ones we want”. Let’s see how we do!