Weekend Wesults fur ze furst veek oon September, ya!

Hey, what an exciting weekend (so far)! What looked like a boring week in Australia ended up with a handful of routs and a handful of upsets - and telling them apart in advance was impossible! Sure, Hawthorn, Sydney, West Coast and Richmond followed the script and routed their opponents by a combined 230 points...but Port Adelaide ended up playing the Peel Thunder feeder team, rather than the parent club Fremantle, and won by well over ten goals; Brisbane and Essendon surprised and pulled off narrow upsets in close games; GWS apparently took the last week off once they were out of the playoff race and Melbourne walked all over them; and most dramatically, Geelong found their championship pride to end the run of nine straight years in the finals and three titles, sending three of their retirees off with pride in a fourth quarter rout of finals-bound Adelaide.

In the CFL, BC upset Montreal 25-20 Friday; the other games are still coming up here on Labor Day weekend. 

Now, here's the opening weekend of Division I college football! In descending order of interest...
*BYU won at Nebraska (in front of a full house, as with every Nebraska game since 1962!) on a Hail Mary from a backup QB on the last play!
*Alabama looked dominant again, discovering Jake Coker as QB and whomping Wisconsin, 35-17.
*Northwestern shut down ranked Stanford 16-6, much to everybody's surprise. 
*Texas A&M looked remarkable in defeating ranked Arizona State 38-17. (Our pastor's happy!)
*Notre Dame looks even better, annihilating Texas 38-3 (it wasn't that close).
*Utah did what they were supposed to, defeating Michigan in Harbaugh's debut, and giving the Pac-12 a good win.
*But elsewhere in the state, Utah State looked terrible against FCS Southern Utah, winning 12-9, but only when Andrew Rodriguez bailed them out on punt number 25 for the day by running it back 88 yards after a day of no offense and five points. (Wyoming, Army, Washington St, Kansas, and Vanderbilt weren't so lucky, losing to FCS opponents in their openers - admittedly, the last two were 'supposed' to lose. Wyoming's loss, to middling FCS North Dakota 24-13, was the worst of the lot)
*Two match-ups of bottom feeders had interesting results: First-timers Kennesaw St started their existence as a football school with a 56-16 defeat of fellow novices East Tennessee St. But the devastating loss was by Georgia State, #128 out of 128 on the FOLLOWING FOOTBALL rankings in 2014, who thought they had easy pickings against FBS novice Charlotte... who were 23-20 victors in the Georgia Dome. Panthers fans were absolutely besides themselves on social media, excoriating their football team's lack of improvement over their four years in FBS.

Other scores of interest in the FF universe: 
Auburn over Louisville, 31-24...South beat North, 17-13, in the battle of the Carolinas...Indiana held off Southern Illinois 48-47: lower Big Ten versus upper Missouri Valley? That score's about right...TCU edged Minnesota 23-17 (we had the Gophers winning, but they came close)... Oklahoma struggled but won over Central Michigan, 24-13...Boise St scored 16 in the first half, Washington scored 13 in the second half and missed a last minute FG to lose by three...Temple "upset" Penn St (we bet Temple on our sheet!) 27-10...Arizona struggled with UTSA, just like last year, but won 42-32...Hawai'i over Colorado 28-20...Arkansas St and Georgia Southern both laid eggs against Power Five opponents, while Appalachian St won 49-0 against FCS Howard...After their big win against NDSU on national TV last week, Montana gave up a last second FG of their own last night to Cal Poly SLO, losing 20-19...Toledo/Stony Brook and LSU/McNeese St were both stormed out; Georgia cut its victory over UL-Monroe short because of the weather...Mostly disappointing day for the Colonial AA, going 2-9 for the weekend. William&Mary and James Madison deserved to celebrate their victories, and Towson can cheer a "good loss" to powerful East Carolina by just eight...Coastal Carolina, who announced they'll be moving to FBS next year in the Sun Belt, didn't show much muscle in beating Furman 38-35 (they were favored by 23 in Sagarin). But the Sun Belt doesn't require much muscle, either...Jacksonville State may be the class of the Ohio Valley, defeating highly-regarded Chattanooga 23-20...Not a lot to cheer about in the HBC ranks, though, with results like Grambling State's 73-14 loss at Cal-Berkeley on the board. Even our favorite team, Savannah State, failed to make headlines despite their near-complete incompetence in losing to Colorado State 65-13; Davidson managed to "downstage" them with a zero-to-69 drubbing from fellow FCS Citadel.

NEW TIERS POSTED TOMORROW in what is our regular Monday ratings feature. See you then! 

 

Here's our predictions for the rest of the FBS conferences!

Having just posted our predictions for the Power Five conferences (the ACC, Big Ten, Big Twelve, Pac-12, and SEC), it's time to take a look at the other five conferences in the Bowl Subdivision - the American, Conference USA, the MAC, the Mountain West, and the Sun Belt Conference. Here we go!

The American Athletic Conference (formerly the Big East):
*Six teams will vie for the title, so the champ may have two or even three conf losses!
*In the West, Memphis looks the class, although Houston will host them on Nov 14 and could steal the division with a win there.
*Navy's joined a conference for the first time in their 135 years of football! Looking at 3rd...
*Tulane should beat Tulsa at home and lock up 4th, while SMU will be better than last year, even if it doesn't get them out of the basement.
*In the East, it's easier to start at the bottom: UConn 6th, and South Florida 5th.
*All four of the others should thrash each other into a 5-3 logjam! We'll wager on East Carolina 1st, Central Florida 2nd, and Cincinnati 3rd with Temple in 4th. But who knows?
*Given that, we'll take Memphis to win the title game.

Conference USA:
*The winner of the Marshall at Western Kentucky game wins the division and the title.
*As of this moment? We'll lean on the revenge factor and pick the Thundering Herd.
*Middle Tennessee heads a distant pack behind them in the East.
*Pencil in Old Dominion, FIU, FAU, and newcomer UNC-Charlotte in the 4/5/6/7 spots.
*Nobody in the West can punch with WKU or Marshall, but Louisiana Tech should get the chance.
*If not, it'll be Rice - they've developed a good system there.
*UTEP should be able to rise to third, and then it depends on some ball bounces: 
*We're thinking Southern Miss rises to 4th, North Texas 5th, and UTSA falls back to sixth.

Mid-American Conference (the MAC):
*They've marketed a marginal conference well - the Tuesday and Wednesday night games on ESPN, the "#MACtion" tweets, and all the exciting play from clever coaches. 
*The power division here is the West, where by throwing their names in a hat I came up with:
*Northern Illinois winning the division (most experience winning).
*Toledo 2nd, Western Michigan fighting a tough schedule for third, and Ball St in 4th.
*Central Michigan is an easy 5th place pick, because the top 4 are significantly better, and...
*Eastern Michigan is conceivably the worst team in football, at least this year in the FBS.
*In the East, Bowling Green is the class of the division (though they'll lose the title game).
*Only Terry Bowden's Akron has a shot to dethrone them, with Frank Solich's Ohio team in third. 
*Four bad teams round out the MAC-East: U-Mass (bad), Buffalo (bad), Kent St (really bad), and Miami of Ohio (so bad Miami-FL makes them distinguish that they are not the same school). 

Mountain West conference:
* This year, it should be Boise State and the eleven dwarves, but that remains to be proven. 
*Boise's rating numbers are so far above everyone else's that they should be 8-0 in conference, with only a tough out-of-conf schedule to manage. If they goes 3-1 there, they should be playing in a major bowl again. 
*Utah St figures to give them the best battle, although they've hit some rocky stretches here.
*CSU, Air Force, Wyoming, and New Mexico round out the Mountain division, in that order.
*In the West, six mediocre teams fight for the division title, with San Diego St looking like the best candidate for the job,
*Nevada's coming up on the rail for 2nd, and Fresno St's struggling this off-season. 
*San Jose may still be 4th, but not for lack of trying. Meanwhile, Hawaii will put some wins on the home field, and UNLV won't.

Sun Belt Conference:
*I know - this should've been in yellow...but Appalachian St and Georgia Southern are the 1-2 teams here...Only the two of them, plus maybe 3rd place Arkansas St and maybe 4th place Louisiana Lafayette would have a chance to win even one game in any other conference. Even the MAC or Conf-USA!
*Texas State is the best of the rest, and should be able to pull off a .500 or better record in league.
*After that, it's turtles all the way down. 
*Depending on how South Alabama takes to its 10-15 new players who were with UAB last year before their one year hiatus, they could be as high as sixth (maybe fifth?). Or UL-Monroe will slide from 7th up to 6th...
*Below that are four of the five Bottom Five teams to start the season (most likely): Troy in 8th; New Mexica St (9th), Idaho (10th), and Georgia State (11th).

So, to recap - the Bottom Five would be Troy,  NMSU, the Vandals, Georgia State, and Eastern Michigan, along with their intern, newbie Charlotte from the C-USA. (If we're counting Army as a non-Power conference team, then the Cadets from West Point will be in that Bottom mix as well.) Boise State should repeat as the Power of Five rep in the New Year's Six bowl games, and the conference champs will include Appalachian State, Northern Illinois, Marshall, and Memphis.

Our "FINAL" college football rankings for the 2014 season!

As the college season comes down to its final game next Monday evening, it's time to present our final tiers and rankings for the 2014 football season. (The asterisk by A1 and A2, of course, mean that the winner of the CFP title game will be A1, and the other team A2. At the moment, though, we have Oregon first.) The tiers don't always fall neatly into groups of six: for example, the top four and TCU seem to be a full step ahead of the next group of schools, so we didn't force a sixth team into that "A" tier. 

Here we go...

FOLLOWING FOOTBALL - FINAL RANKINGS for 2014!
NCAA - BOWL SUBDIVISION Final Final FF rank Team Conf CfRec BOWL oppont Outcome Record Ranking A1* Oregon pac 9-1 NC/Rose OhSt/FSU (59-20) 13-1 A1* A2* Ohio St b10 9-0 NC/Sgr Ore/Ala (42-35) 13-1 A2* A3 Alabama sec 8-1 Sugar Ohio St 35-42 12-2 A3 A4 Florida St acc 9-0 Rose Oregon 20-59 13-1 A4 A5 TCU b12 8-1 Peach Ole Miss 42-3 12-1 A5 B06 Michigan St b10 7-1 Cotton Baylor 42-41 11-2 B06 B07 Baylor b12 8-1 Cotton Mich St 41-42 11-2 B07 B08 Georgia Tech acc 6-3 Orange Miss St 49-34 11-3 B08 B09 Mississippi St sec 6-2 Orange GaTech 34-49 10-3 B09 B10 Georgia sec 6-2 Dec 30 Louisv 37-14 10-3 B10 B11 UCLA pac 6-3 Jan 2 K State 40-35 10-3 B11 C12 Ole Miss sec 5-3 Peach TCU 3-42 9-4 C12 C13 Missouri sec 7-2 Jan 1 Minnes 33-17 11-3 C13 C14 Kansas St b12 7-2 Jan 2 UCLA 35-40 9-4 C14 C15 Clemson acc 6-2 Dec 29 Okla 40-6 10-3 C15 C16 Wisconsin b10 7-2 Jan 1 Auburn 34-31 11-3 C16 C17 Auburn sec 5-3 Jan 1 Wisc 31-34 8-5 C17 D18 Boise St mw 8-1 Fiesta Arizona 38-30 12-2 D18 D19 Arizona St pac 6-3 Dec 27 Duke 36-31 10-3 D19 D20 USC pac 6-3 Dec 27 Nebrska 45-42 9-4 D20 D21 Arizona pac 7-3 Fiesta Boise St 30-38 10-4 D21 D22 LSU sec 4-4 Dec 30 Notre D 28-31 8-5 D22 D23 Utah pac 5-4 Dec 20 Colo St 45-10 9-4 D23 E24 Texas A&M sec 3-5 Dec 29 WVU 45-37 8-5 E24 E25 Stanford pac 5-4 Dec 30 Maryl 45-21 8-5 E25 E26 Arkansas sec 2-6 Dec 29 Texas 31-7 7-6 E26 E27 Nebraska b10 5-3 Dec 27 USC 42-45 9-4 E27 E28 Oklahoma b12 5-4 Dec 29 Clemson 6-40 8-5 E28 E29 Louisville acc 5-3 Dec 30 Georgia 14-37 9-4 E29 E30 Marshall cusa 8-1 Dec 23 NIU 52-23 13-1 E30 E31 Notre Dame ind * Dec 30 LSU 31-28 8-5 E31 E32 Minnesota b10 5-3 Jan 1 Mizzou 17-33 8-5 E32 E33 Duke acc 5-3 Dec 27 Az St 31-36 9-4 E33 F34 Florida sec 4-4 Jan 3 ECU 28-20 7-5 F34 F35 South Carolina sec 3-5 Dec 27 MiaFL 24-21 7-6 F35 F36 Colorado St mw 6-2 Dec 20 Utah 10-45 10-3 F36 F37 Memphis aac 7-1 Dec 22 BYU 55-48 10-3 F37 G38 West Virginia b12 5-4 Dec 29 TA&M 37-45 7-6 G38 G39 Washington pac 4-5 Jan 2 OkSt 22-30 8-6 G39 G40 Cincinnati aac 6-1 Dec 27 VaTech 17-33 8-4 G40 G41 Miami-FL acc 3-5 Dec 27 SoCarol 21-24 6-7 G41 G42 Utah St mw 6-2 Dec 20 UTEP 21-6 10-4 G42 H43 North Carolina St acc 3-5 Dec 26 UCF 34-27 8-5 H43 H44 Maryland b10 4-4 Dec 30 Stanfd 21-45 7-6 H44 H45 Tennessee sec 3-5 Jan 2 Iowa 45-28 7-6 H45 H46 Northern Illinois mac 8-1 Dec 23 Marshl 23-52 11-3 H46 H47 Rutgers b10 3-5 Dec 26 UNC 40-21 8-5 H47 H48 Penn St b10 2-6 Dec 27 BC 31-30 7-6 H48 H49 Air Force mw 5-3 Dec 20 WMU 38-24 10-3 H49 I50 Texas b12 5-4 Dec 29 Arkans 7-31 6-7 I50 I51 Oklahoma St b12 4-5 Jan 2 Wash 30-22 7-6 I51 I52 Iowa b10 4-4 Jan 2 Tenn 28-45 7-6 I52 I53 Boston College acc 4-4 Dec 27 PennSt 30-31 7-6 I53 I54 Kentucky sec 2-6 5-7 I54 J55 Central Florida aac 7-1 Dec 26 NCSt 27-34 9-4 J55 J56 East Carolina aac 5-3 Jan 3 Florida 20-28 8-5 J56 J57 BYU ind * Dec 22 Memph 48-55 8-5 J57 J58 Louisiana Tech cusa 7-2 Dec 26 Illinois 35-18 9-5 J58 J59 Virginia Tech acc 3-5 Dec 27 Cincinn 33-17 7-6 J59 J60 Navy ind * Dec 23 SDSU 17-16 8-5 J60 K61 North Carolina acc 4-4 Dec 26 Rutgers 21-40 6-7 K61 K62 Georgia Southern sun 8-0 9-3 K62 K63 UL-Lafayette sun 7-1 Dec 20 Nevada 16-3 9-4 K63 K64 Western Kentucky cusa 4-4 Dec 24 CMU 49-48 8-5 K64 K65 California pac 3-6 5-7 K65 K66 Oregon St pac 2-7 5-7 K66 K67 Michigan b10 3-5 5-7 K67 Final Final FF rank Team Conf CfRec BOWL oppont Outcome Record Ranking L68 Western Michigan mac 6-2 Dec 20 AFA 24-38 8-5 L68 L69 Houston aac 5-3 Jan 2 Pitt 35-34 8-5 L69 L70 Pitt acc 4-4 Jan 2 Houston 34-35 6-7 L70 L71 Illinois b10 3-5 Dec 26 LaTech 18-35 6-7 L71 L72 Nevada mw 4-4 Dec 20 ULL 3-16 7-6 L72 L73 Toledo mac 7-1 Jan 4 Ark St 63-44 9-4 L73 M74 Texas Tech b12 2-7 4-8 M74 M75 Virginia acc 3-5 5-7 M75 M76 Rice cusa 5-3 Dec 24 Fresno 30-6 8-5 M76 M77 San Diego St mw 5-3 Dec 23 Navy 16-17 7-6 M77 M78 Northwestern b10 3-5 5-7 M78 N79 Temple aac 4-4 6-6 N79 N80 Bowling Green mac 5-4 Dec 20 SoAlab 33-28 8-6 N80 N81 Arkansas St sun 5-3 Jan 4 Toledo 44-63 7-6 N81 N82 Central Michigan mac 5-3 Dec 24 WKU 48-49 7-6 N82 O83 Fresno St mw 5-4 Dec 24 Rice 6-30 6-8 O83 O84 UTEP cusa 5-3 Dec 20 UtahSt 6-21 7-6 O84 O85 UAB cusa 4-4 6-6 O85 O86 Washington St pac 2-7 3-9 O86 O87 Texas St sun 5-3 7-5 O87 O88 Appalachian St sun 6-2 7-5 O88 O89 Kansas b12 1-8 3-9 O89 O90 Syracuse acc 1-7 3-9 O90 O91 South Alabama sun 5-3 Dec 20 BGSU 28-33 6-7 O91 P92 Purdue b10 2-6 4-8 P92 P93 Ohio mac 4-4 6-6 P93 P94 Middle Tennessee cusa 5-3 6-6 P94 P95 Colorado pac 0-9 2-10 P95 P96 Iowa St b12 0-9 2-10 P96 Q097 UL-Monroe sun 3-5 4-8 Q097 Q098 Ball St mac 4-4 5-7 Q098 Q099 Wyoming mw 2-6 4-8 Q099 Q100 Buffalo mac 3-4 5-6 Q100 Q101 Wake Forest acc 1-7 3-9 Q101 Q102 Indiana b10 0-8 3-9 Q102 R103 Hawai'i mw 3-5 4-9 R103 R104 Old Dominion cusa 4-4 6-6 R104 R105 South Florida aac 3-5 4-8 R105 R106 New Mexico mw 2-6 4-8 R106 R107 Vanderbilt sec 0-8 3-9 R107 R108 FIU cusa 3-5 4-8 R108 S109 Florida Atlantic cusa 2-6 3-9 S109 S110 Akron mac 3-5 5-7 S110 S111 Tulane aac 2-6 3-9 S111 S112 Army ind * 4-8 S112 S113 North Texas cusa 2-6 4-8 S113 S114 Southern Miss cusa 1-7 3-9 S114 T115 San Jose St mw 2-6 3-9 T115 T116 UT-San Antonio sun 3-4 4-7 T116 T117 Miami-OH mac 2-6 2-10 T117 T118 Troy sun 3-5 3-9 T118 T119 Tulsa aac 2-6 2-10 T119 T120 UNLV mw 1-7 2-11 T120 U121 Kent St mac 1-6 2-9 U121 U122 U Massachusetts mac 3-5 3-9 U122 U123 U Conn aac 1-7 2-10 U123 U124 Idaho sun 1-7 1-10 U124 V125 Eastern Michigan mac 1-7 2-10 V125 V126 SMU aac 1-7 1-11 V126 V127 New Mexico St sun 1-7 2-10 V127 V128 Georgia St sun 0-8 1-11 V128

a few thoughts...

...the SEC ended up with nine teams in spots #3, 9, 10, 12, 13, 17, 22, 24, and 26 (including ALL SEVEN of the SEC West schools!)...but none in the championship game (and only one in the top 8, fewer than the Big Ten, Big Twelve, OR the ACC!).
...the conferences tended to spread themselves out at the top relatively well: the top 5 came from five different conferences (all five power conferences, naturally), and no school had more than two teams in the top 9.
...Within the top four tiers (#1-23), there are seven SEC teams, six Pac-12 teams (#1, 11, 19, 20, 21, and 23), three Big Ten teams (#2, 6, and 16), three Big 12 teams (#5, 7, and 14), three ACC teams (#4, 8, and 15), and one Mountain West "Group Of Five" interloper (Boise St at #18). 
...In the end, our top four matched the CFP committee's Top four on Dec 7, albeit in a different order (we originally had Oregon first), which is why we resisted moving TCU past any of them into the top 4 despite their brutally dominant performance. However bad the Seminole loss was, it was to a top 4 team.
...Looking at our Bottom 14 teams, we find that there were five from the Sun Belt (with Georgia St and New Mexico St taking the lowest rungs in tier V), four from the MAC, and three from the old Big East, now called the AAC (including SMU, who resided winless in the cellar ALL season long until their victory on the last day of the season over UConn!).
..Next fall, we plan to start from this ranking, even though teams are going to change DRASTICALLY between now and then: without game data to evaluate teams, there's no real way to gauge how to change our tiers. (Of course, once the games start, we'll be VERY willing to move teams dramatically if there's a dramatic difference!) The other principle we abide by is that actually ranking teams early in the season is futile and pointless, so all you'll see are the tiers for awhile, just as we did this year.