College football rankings following Week 10 - FBS

Here are the updated Following Football ACNC tiers and rankings for the FBS teams following the games of November 3-7...Alabama takes over the #1 spot, despite their early season loss to Mississippi State - and if that's a problem for you, ask yourself what the betting odds would look like were they to play any of the undefeated teams on a neutral field! (They were 6 1/2 point favorites against #1 LSU Saturday - and justified it in spades!). In fact, three of our four playoff teams have a loss, but more important is how you're playing NOW. Big movers include OU, moving up from #9; Stanford (#11 to #5), North Carolina (from #28 to #21); falling somewhat were LSU (just to #7) and TCU (to #13).

Notice that we've now ranked ALL 128 teams, all the way down to our Bottom Eight, with Eastern Michigan at the very bottom, losing to almost-equally pathetic Miami of Ohio.

FF tier	Team	Conf	CfRec		OvRec
A1	Alabama	secW	5	1	8	1
A2	Clemson	accA	6	0	9	0
A3	Notre Dame	ind			8	1
A4	Oklahoma	b12	5	1	8	1
B5	Stanford	pacN	7	0	8	1
B6	Ohio St	b10e	5	0	9	0
B7	LSU	secW	4	1	7	1
B8	Oklahoma St	b12	6	0	9	0
B9	Baylor	b12	5	0	8	0
C10	Mississippi St	secW	3	2	7	2
C11	Iowa	b10w	5	0	9	0
C12	Florida	secE	6	1	8	1
C13	TCU	b12	5	1	8	1
C14	Utah	pacS	5	1	8	1
C15	Michigan	b10e	4	1	7	2
D16	Michigan St	b10e	4	1	8	1
D17	UCLA	pacS	4	2	7	2
D18	Ole Miss	secW	4	2	7	3
D19	Temple	aacE	5	0	8	1
D20	Georgia	secE	4	3	6	3
E21	North Carolina	accC	5	0	8	1
E22	Houston	aacW	5	0	9	0
E23	Florida St	accA	5	2	7	2
E24	Auburn	secW	2	4	5	4
E25	Texas A&M	secW	3	3	6	3
E26	Navy	aacW	5	0	7	1
E27	Wisconsin	b10w	5	1	8	2
F28	Memphis	aacW	4	1	8	1
F29	USC	pacS	4	2	6	3
F30	Toledo	macW	4	1	7	1
F31	BYU	ind			7	2
G32	North Carolina St	accA	2	3	6	3
G33	Arkansas	secW	3	2	5	4
G34	Oregon	pacN	4	2	6	3
G35	Boise St	mwM	4	1	7	2
G36	Northwestern	b10w	3	2	7	2
G37	Tennessee	secE	3	3	5	4
G38	Northern Illinois	macW	4	1	6	3
G39	Washington	pacN	2	4	4	5
G40	Virginia Tech	accC	2	3	4	5
G41	Western Kentucky	cusaE	6	0	8	2
G42	Bowling Green	macE	5	0	7	2
G43	Duke	accC	3	2	6	3
H44	Pitt	accC	4	1	6	3
H45	Louisville	accA	4	2	5	4
H46	West Virginia	b12	1	4	4	4
H47	Louisiana Tech	cusaW	5	1	7	3
H48	California	pacN	2	4	5	4
H49	Appalachian St	sun	4	1	7	2
H50	Miami-FL	accC	3	2	6	3
I51	Washington St	pacN	4	2	6	3
I52	Georgia Tech	accC	1	5	3	6
I53	Minnesota	b10w	1	4	4	5
I54	Cincinnati	aacE	2	3	5	4
I55	Penn St	b10e	4	2	7	3
I56	Vanderbilt	secE	1	4	3	6
I57	Kansas St	b12	0	5	3	5
I58	Arizona St	pacS	2	4	4	5
I59	Missouri	secE	1	5	4	5
J60	Kentucky	secE	2	5	4	5
J61	Texas	b12	3	3	4	5
J62	Western Michigan	macW	5	0	5	3
J63	Texas Tech	b12	2	5	5	5
J64	Arizona	pacS	2	5	5	5
J65	San Diego St	mwW	5	0	6	3
J66	South Carolina	secE	1	6	3	6
J67	Nebraska	b10w	2	4	4	6
K68	Arkansas St	sun	5	0	6	3
K69	Illinois	b10w	2	3	5	4
K70	Indiana	b10e	0	5	4	5
K71	Central Michigan	macW	4	1	5	4
K72	Air Force	mwM	4	1	6	3
K73	South Florida	aacE	3	2	5	4
K74	Boston College	accA	0	7	3	7
L75	East Carolina	aacE	2	4	4	6
L76	Georgia Southern	sun	4	1	6	2
L77	Iowa St	b12	2	4	3	6
L78	Marshall	cusaE	5	1	8	2
L79	Southern Miss	cusaW	4	1	6	3
L80	U Conn	aacE	3	3	5	5
L81	Utah St	mwM	4	2	5	4
M82	Middle Tennessee	cusaE	3	2	4	5
M83	Virginia	accC	2	3	3	6
N84	Purdue	b10w	1	4	2	7
N85	Akron	macE	2	3	4	5
N86	Syracuse	accA	1	4	3	6
N87	Wake Forest	accA	1	5	3	6
N88	Tulsa	aacW	2	3	5	4
N89	Colorado	pacS	1	5	4	6
O90	Maryland	b10e	0	5	2	7
O91	Rutgers	b10e	1	5	3	6
O92	Ohio	macE	2	3	5	4
O93	Nevada	mwW	3	2	5	4
O94	Buffalo	macE	3	2	5	4
O95	Colorado St	mwM	2	3	4	5
P96	UNLV	mwW	2	3	3	6
P97	San Jose St	mwW	3	2	4	5
P98	Oregon St	pacN	0	6	2	7
Q099	New Mexico	mwM	3	2	5	4
Q100	Troy	sun	2	3	3	6
Q101	UL-Lafayette	sun	3	1	4	4
Q102	Rice	cusaW	2	3	4	5
Q103	Florida International	cusaE	3	3	5	5
Q104	SMU	aacW	0	5	1	8
R105	Tulane	aacW	1	5	2	7
R106	Ball St	macW	2	4	3	7
R107	Florida Atlantic	cusaE	2	4	2	7
S108	Idaho	sun	2	4	3	6
S109	Kent St	macE	2	3	3	6
S110	Hawai'i	mwW	0	6	2	8
S111	New Mexico St	sun	2	3	2	7
T112	Texas St	sun	1	3	2	6
T113	South Alabama	sun	2	2	4	4
T114	Old Dominion	cusaE	2	3	4	5
T115	Fresno St	mwW	1	5	2	7
T116	U Massachusetts	macE	0	5	1	8
U117	Kansas	b12	0	6	0	9
U118	Wyoming	mwM	1	5	1	9
U119	Army	ind			2	7
U120	UTEP	cusaW	2	3	4	5
U121	Miami-OH	macE	1	5	2	8
U122	North Texas	cusaW	1	5	1	8
U123	UT-San Antonio	cusaW	1	4	1	8
V124	Georgia St	sun	1	3	2	6
V125	UNC-Charlotte	cusaE	0	6	2	7
V126	Central Florida	aacE	0	6	0	10
V127	UL-Monroe	sun	0	5	1	8
W128	Eastern Michigan	macW	0	6	1	9

Here's our predictions for the rest of the FBS conferences!

Having just posted our predictions for the Power Five conferences (the ACC, Big Ten, Big Twelve, Pac-12, and SEC), it's time to take a look at the other five conferences in the Bowl Subdivision - the American, Conference USA, the MAC, the Mountain West, and the Sun Belt Conference. Here we go!

The American Athletic Conference (formerly the Big East):
*Six teams will vie for the title, so the champ may have two or even three conf losses!
*In the West, Memphis looks the class, although Houston will host them on Nov 14 and could steal the division with a win there.
*Navy's joined a conference for the first time in their 135 years of football! Looking at 3rd...
*Tulane should beat Tulsa at home and lock up 4th, while SMU will be better than last year, even if it doesn't get them out of the basement.
*In the East, it's easier to start at the bottom: UConn 6th, and South Florida 5th.
*All four of the others should thrash each other into a 5-3 logjam! We'll wager on East Carolina 1st, Central Florida 2nd, and Cincinnati 3rd with Temple in 4th. But who knows?
*Given that, we'll take Memphis to win the title game.

Conference USA:
*The winner of the Marshall at Western Kentucky game wins the division and the title.
*As of this moment? We'll lean on the revenge factor and pick the Thundering Herd.
*Middle Tennessee heads a distant pack behind them in the East.
*Pencil in Old Dominion, FIU, FAU, and newcomer UNC-Charlotte in the 4/5/6/7 spots.
*Nobody in the West can punch with WKU or Marshall, but Louisiana Tech should get the chance.
*If not, it'll be Rice - they've developed a good system there.
*UTEP should be able to rise to third, and then it depends on some ball bounces: 
*We're thinking Southern Miss rises to 4th, North Texas 5th, and UTSA falls back to sixth.

Mid-American Conference (the MAC):
*They've marketed a marginal conference well - the Tuesday and Wednesday night games on ESPN, the "#MACtion" tweets, and all the exciting play from clever coaches. 
*The power division here is the West, where by throwing their names in a hat I came up with:
*Northern Illinois winning the division (most experience winning).
*Toledo 2nd, Western Michigan fighting a tough schedule for third, and Ball St in 4th.
*Central Michigan is an easy 5th place pick, because the top 4 are significantly better, and...
*Eastern Michigan is conceivably the worst team in football, at least this year in the FBS.
*In the East, Bowling Green is the class of the division (though they'll lose the title game).
*Only Terry Bowden's Akron has a shot to dethrone them, with Frank Solich's Ohio team in third. 
*Four bad teams round out the MAC-East: U-Mass (bad), Buffalo (bad), Kent St (really bad), and Miami of Ohio (so bad Miami-FL makes them distinguish that they are not the same school). 

Mountain West conference:
* This year, it should be Boise State and the eleven dwarves, but that remains to be proven. 
*Boise's rating numbers are so far above everyone else's that they should be 8-0 in conference, with only a tough out-of-conf schedule to manage. If they goes 3-1 there, they should be playing in a major bowl again. 
*Utah St figures to give them the best battle, although they've hit some rocky stretches here.
*CSU, Air Force, Wyoming, and New Mexico round out the Mountain division, in that order.
*In the West, six mediocre teams fight for the division title, with San Diego St looking like the best candidate for the job,
*Nevada's coming up on the rail for 2nd, and Fresno St's struggling this off-season. 
*San Jose may still be 4th, but not for lack of trying. Meanwhile, Hawaii will put some wins on the home field, and UNLV won't.

Sun Belt Conference:
*I know - this should've been in yellow...but Appalachian St and Georgia Southern are the 1-2 teams here...Only the two of them, plus maybe 3rd place Arkansas St and maybe 4th place Louisiana Lafayette would have a chance to win even one game in any other conference. Even the MAC or Conf-USA!
*Texas State is the best of the rest, and should be able to pull off a .500 or better record in league.
*After that, it's turtles all the way down. 
*Depending on how South Alabama takes to its 10-15 new players who were with UAB last year before their one year hiatus, they could be as high as sixth (maybe fifth?). Or UL-Monroe will slide from 7th up to 6th...
*Below that are four of the five Bottom Five teams to start the season (most likely): Troy in 8th; New Mexica St (9th), Idaho (10th), and Georgia State (11th).

So, to recap - the Bottom Five would be Troy,  NMSU, the Vandals, Georgia State, and Eastern Michigan, along with their intern, newbie Charlotte from the C-USA. (If we're counting Army as a non-Power conference team, then the Cadets from West Point will be in that Bottom mix as well.) Boise State should repeat as the Power of Five rep in the New Year's Six bowl games, and the conference champs will include Appalachian State, Northern Illinois, Marshall, and Memphis.

Ever take a look at the Massey Index?

No, it's not a money-market fund, nor a government economic indicator. It's the composite of 121 different rating systems from all across the country, in an attempt to derive the ultimate "meta-ranking", the consensus of all the polls and surveys and computer rankings and "systems" as best Kenneth Massey can do. Take a look - it's amazing! (It's also overload, if you're not ready for it!)

A few things to notice...

1. Their top four are Alabama, Mississippi St, Oregon, and TCU. (The one difference is that we have Oregon 5th, and Florida St in the top 4. Massey lists them seventh.)

2. The SEC has strength. They have the top two (it was the top four last week!), four of the top six, and six of the top 12. Within that top twelve, there are also two Pac-12 schools, two Big-12 schools, an ACC rep and one from the Big-10.

3. Marshall is 21st. (We have them in Tier E, which is #25-30.) Following them, the next highest "Group Of Five" school is Boise St, at #30.

4. Records aren't all that important. It depends who you played...and more often, whom you beat. #1 Alabama has a loss, and the three undefeated teams are #2, #7, and #21. Two-loss Auburn and Ole Miss are #5 and #6, respectively, and three-loss LSU is #12. (So, you can lose, if you're losing to top-ten SEC teams...)

5. There are teams the Massey Index loves - Louisiana Tech is all the way up in #39, whereas we have them in Tier K, equivalent to #61-66 - and there are teams that really sink in this ranking, like South Florida, whom we have in Tier P (#97-100). They come in at #111, just above Tier S Hawaii and just behind Tier R- Southern Miss.

6. #128 is not SMU! Despite being the only winless team in the entirety of FBS, the woeful Mustangs are only #127...Georgia St gets the honor of falling just below them into the cellar (and it's not really close). At least they were also a Bottom Six team (actually, we only had a Bottom Five in tier U this week) - and those five teams come in at spots #123, 124, 126, 127, and 128, with only Tier T Eastern Michigan disturbing the sweep at #125.

Looking forward to Week 9 in college football with our SCIENTIFIC tools!

There are some great games coming this weekend, the first one on Thursday night when Tier F Louisville hosts Tier A Florida St! By tiering, the best game of the weekend should be Auburn @ Ole Miss, where the polls have the Tigers above the Rebels, but we have Ole Miss in Tier A and Auburn a rung lower in B; hence, we're favoring Ole Miss (and, if we were actually making bets, "taking the points").

Other marquee games include TCU @ West Virginia (tiers A vs. C), Kentucky @ Missouri (tiers D vs. E; unlike the oddsmakers, we like the Wildcats), Arkansas @ Mississippi St (tiers H vs. A), Arizona @ UCLA (again, they're favoring the lower tiered team, so we'll take tier C Arizona and the points over the tier E Bruins), and Stanford @ Oregon.

Going strictly by tiers, and using the old saw about home field being about a three-point advantage, we've noticed that the point spread for this week's games generally matches up very well with our 20-tier system. As a general rule, the expected margin of victory will be somewhere between 1-2.5 points per tier, plus or minus the three points for the home field. The actual average is 1.75 points per tier, with the median at 1.5 points per tier. So, if two teams are four tiers apart on last week's listing, expect the higher team to be favored by 4-10 points, most likely 6-7, + the three points for home field.

Given those parameters, and strictly using our wisened separation tool better known as "guessing" where teams should fall, we took a look at the 54 FBS games scheduled this weekend for "outliers" to see if there were some easy predictions we could make based on this statistical creation:

Predictions based on our tier system and the Vegas odds...

*Iowa should be favored by more than 4 at home against Northwestern.
*Rutgers shouldn't be eleven point underdogs at home against Wisconsin (more like 2).
*Florida International shouldn't be 6 1/2 point dogs at home to Rice (also about 2).
*Why is Duke not favored over Pitt? Tier D over tier I? They should be giving points!
*North Carolina will be closer to the Hurricanes than seventeen points...
*Boston College shouldn't be getting points from Virginia Tech (or, at least not three)!
*Eastern Michigan shouldn't be more than about a touchdown underdog to Central Michigan (not 16 1/2 points, anyway!). 
*Louisiana Tech should be a much bigger favorite over Tier R Western Kentucky - six points at home isn't sufficient.
*Virginia at Georgia Tech shouldn't be just the three point home field advantage...the Yellowjackets deserve at least a TD spread in their favor.
*Part of the continued over-valuing of the Cougars after Tayson Hill's injury: Middle Tennessee should NOT be the underdog at home again BYU.
*And Kentucky should be favored over Missouri - or at least, not down six!
*We see both UNLV and Ole Miss as higher tiered teams at home (against New Mexico and Auburn, respectively), and with the three-point home bump should be more than one and two point faves, in turn. More like five each.
*Oklahoma St will be a one TD underdog to Kansas St, not two.
*Arizona will flat out beat UCLA in Los Angeles, not lose by four.
*Fresno St may be favored at home, but Wyoming shouldn't be getting 10 1/2 points!
*See previous comment with Utah not getting five points against Arizona St!
*Finally, it's hard to estimate what the trip to the islands does to a team, but we think Utah St deserves more love than a three point spread when they play at Hawaii late Saturday night!

We'll see how those predictions go this weekend! Eighteen chances to be proven wrong! A prognosticator's dream!