Showing posts with label Oregon St. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Oregon St. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 21, 2015
Saturday, November 29, 2014
What is a rivalry?
A rivalry is NOT someone you compete against every season.
It is NOT just proximity.
It is NOT hatred, enmity, or animosity.
It is NOT sharing a conference, a city, or a state.
What a rivalry IS...is a pair of teams who can literally "throw out the records" whenever they play.
Consider the games today: Ohio St v Michigan, which was 17-22 points in the Buckeyes' favored column...way too much for a rivalry game. Currently 28-21 OSU, back and forth all game long....Kentucky v Louisville, in which UL was favored by 9-14, but which was at 28-26 in the fourth last check....Georgia Tech v Georgia, where underdog GT leads 21-17 with under three to go...and apparently the two teams brought into the Pac-12 together, Utah v Colorado, where the Utes should have won rather easily but the Buffaloes lead by two in the third quarter. Watching the Civil War tonight (Oregon v Oregon St) or the most fascinating intersectional rivalry in football, Notre Dame v USC, or either of the SEC matchups: Mississippi St/Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl (games w names usually are trying to be rivalries!) and the Iron Bowl which cannot top last year's everevereverever, Auburn v Alabama.
There are certainly other examples: Arizona/Arizona St (42-35 yesterday), Stanford/Cal, UCLA/USC, Harvard/Yale, Florida St/Miami-Fl, and you can probably name many of your own. Sometimes they arise from personality meshes: in the NFL, New England v Indianapolis were big rivals because they were both top of the division teams, but more because they had Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, the two great quarterbacks of their generation.
And sometimes, rivalries are manufactured - rarely successfully, but once in a while... For example, Nebraska entering the Big Ten, they're playing new teams up and down their schedule, and so there are several teams who might serve as a rival for them. But, watching the wild game against Iowa yesterday (which went to overtime before UN won 37-34), they may have found a rival after all!
Sometimes, rivalries can die, too: it used to be that Boise St v Idaho was one of the great unsung rivalries in the nation, through there D2 days, then the Big Sky days, then they move up into the Big West together in the FBS, and finally into the WAC....but as the Broncos continued to improve, winning conference championships left and right, the Vandals sputtered to losing seasons, fell out of conferences altogether for a year before scrambling back into the low-level Sun Belt and a 1-10 season again this year. When Boise won its tenth or twelfth straight over U of I, it became clear that the critical element of "any given day" was long gone. And therefore, so was the rivalry. There were still sports where the two teams are rivals, but not in football.
It is NOT just proximity.
It is NOT hatred, enmity, or animosity.
It is NOT sharing a conference, a city, or a state.
What a rivalry IS...is a pair of teams who can literally "throw out the records" whenever they play.
Consider the games today: Ohio St v Michigan, which was 17-22 points in the Buckeyes' favored column...way too much for a rivalry game. Currently 28-21 OSU, back and forth all game long....Kentucky v Louisville, in which UL was favored by 9-14, but which was at 28-26 in the fourth last check....Georgia Tech v Georgia, where underdog GT leads 21-17 with under three to go...and apparently the two teams brought into the Pac-12 together, Utah v Colorado, where the Utes should have won rather easily but the Buffaloes lead by two in the third quarter. Watching the Civil War tonight (Oregon v Oregon St) or the most fascinating intersectional rivalry in football, Notre Dame v USC, or either of the SEC matchups: Mississippi St/Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl (games w names usually are trying to be rivalries!) and the Iron Bowl which cannot top last year's everevereverever, Auburn v Alabama.
There are certainly other examples: Arizona/Arizona St (42-35 yesterday), Stanford/Cal, UCLA/USC, Harvard/Yale, Florida St/Miami-Fl, and you can probably name many of your own. Sometimes they arise from personality meshes: in the NFL, New England v Indianapolis were big rivals because they were both top of the division teams, but more because they had Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, the two great quarterbacks of their generation.
And sometimes, rivalries are manufactured - rarely successfully, but once in a while... For example, Nebraska entering the Big Ten, they're playing new teams up and down their schedule, and so there are several teams who might serve as a rival for them. But, watching the wild game against Iowa yesterday (which went to overtime before UN won 37-34), they may have found a rival after all!
Sometimes, rivalries can die, too: it used to be that Boise St v Idaho was one of the great unsung rivalries in the nation, through there D2 days, then the Big Sky days, then they move up into the Big West together in the FBS, and finally into the WAC....but as the Broncos continued to improve, winning conference championships left and right, the Vandals sputtered to losing seasons, fell out of conferences altogether for a year before scrambling back into the low-level Sun Belt and a 1-10 season again this year. When Boise won its tenth or twelfth straight over U of I, it became clear that the critical element of "any given day" was long gone. And therefore, so was the rivalry. There were still sports where the two teams are rivals, but not in football.
Tuesday, November 25, 2014
College predictions for Week 13!
Like we whined about with the pro schedule (our "whine" which was really a praise, of course!), we've been able to refine our tiers to the point where our tier-based predictions barely differ from the casino lines or from the Sagarin point spreads. We'll review some of the major contests coming up this Thanksgiving weekend, along with the games where we actually have some differing forecasts to consider...
Games of the highest interest:
Thursday - TCU @ Texas - The Horned Frogs are favored by anywhere from 6 1/2 to 9 points, but with the surging Longhorns looking for a pelt to prove they're on the road back, our instincts are telling us TCU's in trouble.
Friday - Arkansas @ Missouri - Another case of a surging lower team looking for a pelt, but in this case the Tier E Razorbacks are ready to make a full coat if they can prevent Mizzou from winning the East!
Arizona St @ Arizona - The Territorial Cup hasn't looked this good in the 21st century! Both 9-2, both Tier C, #17 and #18 on our ranking list - and the Pac-12 South title in reach for both. Wildcats get the three point ad for being at home from us.
Stanford @ UCLA - ...but they'll have to hope the Bruins lose if they want to play Oregon next week. And UCLA's firing on too many cylinders to let that happen.
Virginia @ Virginia Tech - Both 5-6, both need the win to go to a bowl. Question: if VaTech lost, would they really consider letting Frank Beamer go?
Saturday - South Carolina @ Clemson - Always fun! Clemson by 4.5 up to 6, depending on which of us you listen to. The state championship is on the line...
Kentucky @ Louisville - And here too, where the Cardinals are favored by 8 up to 13.5, depending on who you get your info from. We're the low end, as usual - we've had a soft spot for the Wildcats all year, but if they continue their downward trend, it may be much worse than that.
Michigan @ Ohio St - Probably Brady Hoke's last game. And if OSU comes up with a reason to run it up - to impress the committee, perhaps? - this could be uglier than the 17-22 point spreads we have in place.
Purdue @ Indiana - We can't even say it's for the state championship...Notre Dame won that. Hoosiers by 1.5 to 3.
Notre Dame @ USC - Glad they've found a way to keep this one on the schedule. Trojans by 3-7, although if Golson plays well, we see ND having a puncher's chance.
Florida @ Florida St - If you bet on this game, you're crazy. Sure, the spread is consistent: 5-11 points (we have it at 11), but if FSU wants to keep it close...if Florida decides to "win one for the Champer"....or lay down and die...this could be a rout either way, or a tie game at the death...
Baylor @ Texas Tech - Nothing to see here: Assuming the Bears show up (and they will), this game's job is to certify their credentials to pass TCU...who put up 82 on Tech. Hmm... The spread is 16-25, but if Baylor gets rolling, it might as well be 1625...
Kansas @ Kansas St - See previous comments.
Auburn @ Alabama - Why bother? The Iron Bowl can't POSSIBLY top last year's game... 'Bama by 5-10 points.
Oregon @ Oregon St - If you don't keep at least half an eye on this game, you might be surprised come Sunday morning! Sure, the Ducks are favored over the Beavers (by the way, the Civil War trophy is a combination of the two animals - hence, a platypus!) by 13-22 points, but there's a reason we're at the low end of that spread. OSU/Oregon has ALWAYS had the potential to ruin someone's season!
Games of a betting interest (but DON'T BET ON THEM!):
Friday - Northern Illinois @ Western Michigan - Hard to believe the Broncos are favored over the Huskies, but they are! We say by 1 point; Vegas says 7. (Sagarin, by the way, splits the difference: 3 1/2.)
Buffalo @ U Mass - The official line is Buffalo by 2; we call it EVEN. (Sagarin encourages us by picking UM by 2!)
Wyoming @ New Mexico - Coming off the shellacking Boise gave them, the Cowboys are 4 1/2 point underdogs in Vegas; we have them as one point faves! (Sagarin rates the game even.)
Games that are BOTH interesting on and off the field:
Thursday - LSU @ Texas A&M - We're picking the Aggies by 1; Vegas picks the Tigers by 2.5! (Sagarin rates it even.) Two teams who could beat anyone, but don't...
Friday - Nebraska @ Iowa - The Big Ten keeps trying to contrive rivalries since Oklahoma no longer shares the schedule. But this one seems to us to be the most natural, geographically. We see the Huskers by 3; Vegas has Iowa by 1. (Sagarin agrees with us.)
Georgia Tech @ Georgia - The state championship of Georgia looks like a foregone conclusion for Vegas; they favor UGA by 13 (Sagarin says 16.5!). We think Tech will stay within 6. (We do have a soft spot for Georgia Tech, though...)
Minnesota @ Wisconsin - We have a soft spot for the Golden Gophers, too - and they've got a legit shot at the Big Ten West title, if they can go into Madison and steal a game the way they stole the game (and the ball!) from Nebraska last week! We have UW as only a five point favorite; Vegas thinks Melvin Gordon runs wild and wins by two TDs. We like you, Badgers, but we're rooting for UM this weekend!!
Mississippi St @ Ole Miss - Can't recall this ever being THE game of the weekend! If Ole Miss had held up their end of the bargain, this could have been the game of the season! The casinos think MSU should be two-point favorites; we think Ole Miss at home should be the favorite, though not by much (half-point?). In the SEC West, home field has been everything. Our hunch is that it will be here, too.
Games of the highest interest:
Thursday - TCU @ Texas - The Horned Frogs are favored by anywhere from 6 1/2 to 9 points, but with the surging Longhorns looking for a pelt to prove they're on the road back, our instincts are telling us TCU's in trouble.
Friday - Arkansas @ Missouri - Another case of a surging lower team looking for a pelt, but in this case the Tier E Razorbacks are ready to make a full coat if they can prevent Mizzou from winning the East!
Arizona St @ Arizona - The Territorial Cup hasn't looked this good in the 21st century! Both 9-2, both Tier C, #17 and #18 on our ranking list - and the Pac-12 South title in reach for both. Wildcats get the three point ad for being at home from us.
Stanford @ UCLA - ...but they'll have to hope the Bruins lose if they want to play Oregon next week. And UCLA's firing on too many cylinders to let that happen.
Virginia @ Virginia Tech - Both 5-6, both need the win to go to a bowl. Question: if VaTech lost, would they really consider letting Frank Beamer go?
Saturday - South Carolina @ Clemson - Always fun! Clemson by 4.5 up to 6, depending on which of us you listen to. The state championship is on the line...
Kentucky @ Louisville - And here too, where the Cardinals are favored by 8 up to 13.5, depending on who you get your info from. We're the low end, as usual - we've had a soft spot for the Wildcats all year, but if they continue their downward trend, it may be much worse than that.
Michigan @ Ohio St - Probably Brady Hoke's last game. And if OSU comes up with a reason to run it up - to impress the committee, perhaps? - this could be uglier than the 17-22 point spreads we have in place.
Purdue @ Indiana - We can't even say it's for the state championship...Notre Dame won that. Hoosiers by 1.5 to 3.
Notre Dame @ USC - Glad they've found a way to keep this one on the schedule. Trojans by 3-7, although if Golson plays well, we see ND having a puncher's chance.
Florida @ Florida St - If you bet on this game, you're crazy. Sure, the spread is consistent: 5-11 points (we have it at 11), but if FSU wants to keep it close...if Florida decides to "win one for the Champer"....or lay down and die...this could be a rout either way, or a tie game at the death...
Baylor @ Texas Tech - Nothing to see here: Assuming the Bears show up (and they will), this game's job is to certify their credentials to pass TCU...who put up 82 on Tech. Hmm... The spread is 16-25, but if Baylor gets rolling, it might as well be 1625...
Kansas @ Kansas St - See previous comments.
Auburn @ Alabama - Why bother? The Iron Bowl can't POSSIBLY top last year's game... 'Bama by 5-10 points.
Oregon @ Oregon St - If you don't keep at least half an eye on this game, you might be surprised come Sunday morning! Sure, the Ducks are favored over the Beavers (by the way, the Civil War trophy is a combination of the two animals - hence, a platypus!) by 13-22 points, but there's a reason we're at the low end of that spread. OSU/Oregon has ALWAYS had the potential to ruin someone's season!
Games of a betting interest (but DON'T BET ON THEM!):
Friday - Northern Illinois @ Western Michigan - Hard to believe the Broncos are favored over the Huskies, but they are! We say by 1 point; Vegas says 7. (Sagarin, by the way, splits the difference: 3 1/2.)
Buffalo @ U Mass - The official line is Buffalo by 2; we call it EVEN. (Sagarin encourages us by picking UM by 2!)
Wyoming @ New Mexico - Coming off the shellacking Boise gave them, the Cowboys are 4 1/2 point underdogs in Vegas; we have them as one point faves! (Sagarin rates the game even.)
Games that are BOTH interesting on and off the field:
Thursday - LSU @ Texas A&M - We're picking the Aggies by 1; Vegas picks the Tigers by 2.5! (Sagarin rates it even.) Two teams who could beat anyone, but don't...
Friday - Nebraska @ Iowa - The Big Ten keeps trying to contrive rivalries since Oklahoma no longer shares the schedule. But this one seems to us to be the most natural, geographically. We see the Huskers by 3; Vegas has Iowa by 1. (Sagarin agrees with us.)
Georgia Tech @ Georgia - The state championship of Georgia looks like a foregone conclusion for Vegas; they favor UGA by 13 (Sagarin says 16.5!). We think Tech will stay within 6. (We do have a soft spot for Georgia Tech, though...)
Minnesota @ Wisconsin - We have a soft spot for the Golden Gophers, too - and they've got a legit shot at the Big Ten West title, if they can go into Madison and steal a game the way they stole the game (and the ball!) from Nebraska last week! We have UW as only a five point favorite; Vegas thinks Melvin Gordon runs wild and wins by two TDs. We like you, Badgers, but we're rooting for UM this weekend!!
Mississippi St @ Ole Miss - Can't recall this ever being THE game of the weekend! If Ole Miss had held up their end of the bargain, this could have been the game of the season! The casinos think MSU should be two-point favorites; we think Ole Miss at home should be the favorite, though not by much (half-point?). In the SEC West, home field has been everything. Our hunch is that it will be here, too.
Thursday, October 23, 2014
Forecasts for Week 8!
Looking through the oddsmakers' choices and spreads (and again, we do not advocate betting on football or any sport! It's just a device we use to estimate probable outcomes of games!), there aren't very many spots where we disagree with Vegas. Here are the most obvious:
In college football, we like Maryland over Wisconsin as an eleven point underdog, since we have them a tier higher to begin with!
We like Georgia Tech to beat Pitt despite their three-point underdog line, as we have them three full tiers higher than the Panthers!
We severely question the idea that Oregon St is a two-TD underdog to Stanford. We have them a tier higher, and since it's on the Farm, we figure it a pretty even game.
Looking at the West Virginia at Oklahoma St game, we see even lines from most Vegas houses, but we see it as a probable Mountaineer victory.
Old Dominion should be able to handle Western Kentucky, despite the Hilltoppers' home field advantage...and we don't see why Arizona is only a 2 1/2 point fave over Washington St. Sure, the Cougs will put up fifty - but they'll allow seventy!
In the NFL, we're always afraid to predict the unpredictable, but the two games where our tiers disagree with the oddsmakers are in the Meadowlands, where unlike Vegas we foresee Buffalo beating the Jets, and in New Orleans. Sure, the Saints are good at home...but the Packers are good everywhere. They're rated as a "pick'em" game, but we're pretty confident in Green Bay defeating New Orleans, even in the Superdome.
Finally, in the CFL, we're most interested in the Hamilton at Toronto matchup, and leaning towards the road team to win the first of the three-game round-robin tournament for the Eastern Conference title.
In college football, we like Maryland over Wisconsin as an eleven point underdog, since we have them a tier higher to begin with!
We like Georgia Tech to beat Pitt despite their three-point underdog line, as we have them three full tiers higher than the Panthers!
We severely question the idea that Oregon St is a two-TD underdog to Stanford. We have them a tier higher, and since it's on the Farm, we figure it a pretty even game.
Looking at the West Virginia at Oklahoma St game, we see even lines from most Vegas houses, but we see it as a probable Mountaineer victory.
Old Dominion should be able to handle Western Kentucky, despite the Hilltoppers' home field advantage...and we don't see why Arizona is only a 2 1/2 point fave over Washington St. Sure, the Cougs will put up fifty - but they'll allow seventy!
In the NFL, we're always afraid to predict the unpredictable, but the two games where our tiers disagree with the oddsmakers are in the Meadowlands, where unlike Vegas we foresee Buffalo beating the Jets, and in New Orleans. Sure, the Saints are good at home...but the Packers are good everywhere. They're rated as a "pick'em" game, but we're pretty confident in Green Bay defeating New Orleans, even in the Superdome.
Finally, in the CFL, we're most interested in the Hamilton at Toronto matchup, and leaning towards the road team to win the first of the three-game round-robin tournament for the Eastern Conference title.
Thursday, October 16, 2014
Tonight's American Football menu for your dining pleasure...
"Appetizer, sir or madam? Would you care to try our ACC game? It's very good - Virginia Tech at Pitt. Or perhaps you would prefer something more...westerly? We also have this delightful Pac-12 matchup, with Utah visiting Oregon State if you'd like?
"My recommendation? M'sieur, I would not be so bold as to suggest what m'sieur prefers. But if it were my place to recommend, I would like the turkey and the beaver, myself (the Hokies and the Beavers) as they are under valued, in my humble opinion...
"Very good, sir or madam; very good.
"Now, for your main course this evening? Our specialty is delightful - a steaming hot plate of Rex Ryan, boiling in New York Jets green sauce, heaped onto a delicious pile of New England Patriots, with a side of Belichick and Brady to agitate it, give it some spice! Yes? No?
"Ah! Just like me! You'd prefer it with more Patriot and less Jet? Don't worry - that's what you'll get tonight: lots of New England with just a very tiny amount of NYJ,
"Magnificent! And for dessert? Can we bring you something on the blue? Perhaps some Fresno Bulldog? With a side of Boise State? No? Hold the Boise? Well, that would be a ten-yard penalty, but we expect much more Fresno than Bronco in this dish tomorrow night.
"Ah, very good, sir or madam. It is a pleasure to serve you!"
"My recommendation? M'sieur, I would not be so bold as to suggest what m'sieur prefers. But if it were my place to recommend, I would like the turkey and the beaver, myself (the Hokies and the Beavers) as they are under valued, in my humble opinion...
"Very good, sir or madam; very good.
"Now, for your main course this evening? Our specialty is delightful - a steaming hot plate of Rex Ryan, boiling in New York Jets green sauce, heaped onto a delicious pile of New England Patriots, with a side of Belichick and Brady to agitate it, give it some spice! Yes? No?
"Ah! Just like me! You'd prefer it with more Patriot and less Jet? Don't worry - that's what you'll get tonight: lots of New England with just a very tiny amount of NYJ,
"Magnificent! And for dessert? Can we bring you something on the blue? Perhaps some Fresno Bulldog? With a side of Boise State? No? Hold the Boise? Well, that would be a ten-yard penalty, but we expect much more Fresno than Bronco in this dish tomorrow night.
"Ah, very good, sir or madam. It is a pleasure to serve you!"
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