The best and worst games of the year in college football

Sports Illustrated does a tremendous job of compiling their list of the 25 best and ten worst games of the FBS season (thereby excluding Savannah State, Davidson, Columbia, and other infamous 1-AA programs from the latter list, mercifully).

In the top 25, the obvious winner is indeed the most pivotal game of the regular season: Baylor 61, TCU 58, although the national championship game and both semifinals made the list as well. Some of my favorite games of the season show up as well, like the East Carolina unrealistically surprising conference championship over UCF, the WILD Western Kentucky/Central Michigan Bahamas Bowl (and WKU's 67-66 upset of Marshall), the Cal/Wazzu statistical menagerie, Arizona's Hail Mary over Cal and Arizona State's over USC, and Michigan State's comeback over Baylor

Meanwhile, there's also no argument with the "winner" of the Bottom Ten, a game I was "blessed" to have seen all five quarters of: Wake Forest 6, Virginia Tech 3. Somehow, the only team that defeated the eventual national champions (IN COLUMBUS, no less) also lost to the worst-ranked Power Five conference team in the country. An impressive double, Hokies! The list also includes both of Florida's most horrific performances, the Arkansas demolition of Texas in the bowl game where only one team showed up; the Georgia Tech rout of Pitt where the Panthers gave up five fumbles in their first thirteen plays; and the ridiculous Michigan/Northwestern game in which the rain added to the pathetic showing.

It's college bowl season!

Sorry for the delay in this post: real life intervened. But, here are the 38 scheduled bowl games and their predicted outcomes, not just from Following Football but from Sagarin, ESPN, and Vegas:

Dec 20:                                          ESPN             SAGARIN           VEGAS           Following FB
Nevada v LA-Lafayette:              Nev by 4        Nev by 1.4           Nev by 1.          ULL by 1/2
Utah St v UTEP:                            USU by 13  USU by 8.8.    USU by 10.     USU by 12
Utah v Colorado St:                      CSU by 3.      Utah by 5.6     Utah by 3       CSU by 1/2
W Michigan v Air Force:             WM by 7.      WM by 0.5.        AF by 1.5.       AF by 6
Bowling Green v S Alabama:     BG by 1         SA by 2.4.           SA by 3.            SA by 1/2 

Dec 22
BYU v Memphis:                            Mem by 7.  Mem by 2.0    Mem by 1.5.    Mem by 3

Dec 23
Marshall v N Illinois:                    Mrsh by 7.  Mrsh by 12.5. Mrsh by 10   Mrsh by 4
Navy v San Diego St:                    SDSU by 1.    SDSU by 3.1.       SDSU by 3.     Navy by 1

Dec 24
C Michigan v W Kentucky:          WK by 13.     WK by 5.0.     WK by 4.      WK by 5
Fresno St v Rice:                            Rice by 8.     Rice by 2.6.    Rice by 2.5   Rice by 1/2

Dec 26
Illinois v Louisiana Tech:            LT by 11.       LT by 9.1.       LT by 6.          LT by 4
Rutgers v North Carolina:          NC by 3.          NC by 2.7.         NC by 3.            Rut by 1/2. 
N Carolina St v UCF:                    NCS by 1.      UCF by 3.3.      UCF by 2.         UCF by 2 1/2

...and we'll pick up the second week later in this week. But for Bowl Season, we're scoring a little differently...or at least, a little additionally! We'll ALSO keep a tally of which of these four highly esteemed methodologies picks the highest number of game winners, straight up. To the victor belong the non-existent spoils! 

Fiesta Bowl, eat your heart out...

As a longtime Boise State follower, it's hard to beat the 2007 Fiesta Bowl as the greatest college game of my lifetime (the USC-Texas/Vince Young national title game is the only one I have above it), but piece the highlights together from today's Bahamas Bowl between Western Kentucky and Central Michigan, two medium level teams who played an amazing game today.

WKU scored touchdowns on all six of their first half possessions and led 49-14 going into the fourth quarter. With less than twelve minutes left, CMU scored the first of their five consecutive touchdowns: the first two just looked like garbage time scores to pretty up the final tally, the third brings them within two TDs with just over three minutes to go; the fourth with 1:06 to go seems to mean an onside kick has to be successful...but using their timeouts, they get the ball punted back to them with one second left, on their own 25. CMU QB Cooper Rush threw a Hail Mary to about the thirty, and four laterals later, Titus Davis stretched out to reach the pylon and tie the game...

...except that CMU head coach Dan Enos has balls the size of Wilson.

No time on the clock, extra point pending, he decided to go for two - win or lose on one play. 

I'm all for it, and I'll tell you why.

First, who cares? It's a BOWL GAME. It doesn't really affect your standings, your conference record, or anything else. Why not?

Secondly, they had ALL the momentum! CMU had just scored five touchdowns in less than twelve minutes. Western Kentucky hadn't stopped them in forever - why not? 

Thirdly, the football gods were with them! One play for the win when you just pulled off a play that looked like The Play? Why not?

But fourth and most importantly, it shows your current and future players that you have balls. When push came to shove, you trusted your players to win or lose that game. It's the flip side of the coach that refuses to go for 4th and 1 at midfield and punts instead ("because we're playing the 'field position' game...") or at the goal line and tries the field goal ("because we need the points on the board") instead of trusting that if you miss, your defense will get it done. It's the same thing as the Pulaski (ARK) Academy "never punt" theory that says, trust your players to win games, instead of playing scared and not to lose. It's playing the game with courage and integrity, instead of pussyfooting around and trying to deflect the blame to your players if you lose. Be a man, coach. Play to win, like Enos did. 


(Did they win or lose? I won't tell you...because it doesn't matter. It was the guts to try it that mattered.)

From ESPN Stats: Some facts about WKU's 67-66 upset of Marshall Friday...

Western Kentucky's Leon Allen (237) and Marshall's Steward Butler (233) became the second pair of opposing running backs in FBS history to each rush for over 230 yards in the same game. The other? Maryland's Bruce Perry (237) and Wake Forest's Chris Barclay (243) in 1997.

Western Kentucky and Marshall combined for 133 points today. Including today's game, SMU has scored 106 all season.

The 133 combined points ties the most ever in a game involving a ranked team (No. 9 West Virginia beat No. 25 Baylor, 70-63, in 2012).

Western Kentucky scored more points today in football (67) than it did against Marshall in men's basketball last season (64).

The 15 combined Pass TD (8 by Brandon Doughty, 7 by Rakeem Cato) breaks an FBS record for most combined Pass TD in a game. It's the 2nd game in FBS history where 2 quarterbacks threw for at least 7 touchdowns (also California-Colorado earlier this season: Jared Goff and Sefo Liufau).

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook knew there was going to be a lot of points scored in Western Kentucky-Marshall, as the 76 over/under was the 2nd-highest mark of any of the games today or tomorrow (behind the 80 in Baylor-Texas Tech).The over hit with 7:23 remaining in the 2nd quarter.

This is the first time in Rakeem Cato's career he has thrown at least three interceptions in a home game.

Western Kentucky and Marshall combined to score 49 points in the 1st quarter (28-21 WKU). That is the most combined points in the 1st quarter of any FBS game this season. The previous high was 42 by New Mexico and Boise State on Nov. 8 when New Mexico led 28-14 after the 1st quarter.

Apparently NOBODY wants to go!

Coming towards the regular season's end, three teams matched up for the Group of Five's auto-bid into the big bowl games (what used to be called the BCS Buster): Marshall, Colorado St, and Boise St. We had the three teams in that order here at Following Football (Marshall #23, Colorado St #24, Boise St #29), although the CFP Committee actually has Boise at 23, Marshall at 24, and Colorado St just off the radar.

However, the Thundering Herd fell for the first time today (as reported here), 67-66 in overtime to Western Kentucky, and just now, the Air Force Academy kicked a last play field goal to beat the Rams, 27-24! Is this a good sign or a BAD one for the Broncos tomorrow? Their home game tomorrow against Utah St now becomes not only the de facto Mountain division title but possibly the Fiesta Bowl bid redux on the line! Technically, they still have a title game (at home) against Nevada or maybe Fresno next week, but given that the Mountain West looks like the SEC (all the talent in one division - Air Force is the fourth best team in the division AND the league), that may just be a formality...

The Hilltoppers have looked better and better all seaon, BUT...

..that didn't prepare us for what they're doing right now against the 11-0 Marshall Thundering Herd! After intercepting a red zone pass, Western Kentucky holds on to its 52-49 lead with under eleven to go (and if you think that score's high, realize that it was 49-42 at halftime!) Follow the game live HERE on ESPN's Gamecast...

UPDATE! And now, Brandon Daughty throws a 65-yard pass to Jason Dangerfield to put the Hilltoppers up ten points, 59-49! Nine minutes to go! OK, Marshall, let's see if you really ARE a championship caliber team...

UPDATE: THEY ARE. Nine plays, 58 yards for a field goal; force a quick punt from WKU, then 12 plays, 82 yards for a touchdown with 29 second remaining to tie the game.

FINAL UPDATE: WKU won the only possible way they coulda/shoulda won it: with a two-point conversion on their overtime touchdown to beat 11-0 Marshall, 67-66!

Week 12 tiers and rankings, part 2...

TIER G: 41. Utah St (9-3). 42. Washington (7-5), and Chris Petersen is not far from where his previous team resides! 43. Cincinnati (7-3). 44. East Carolina (7-3). 45. Iowa (7-4). And yes, there are only five in this tier - we're dividing where the natural breaks are!

TIER H. 46. Memphis (8-3). 47. Tennessee (5-6). 48. Boston College (6-5), after a great game at FSU. 49. North Carolina (6-5). 50. Penn St (6-5), and promise for the future. 51. Kentucky (5-6), and what happened to a promising season.... 52. Oklahoma St (5-6), and we could say the same for the Cowboys!

TIER I: 53. BYU (7-4), after beating down a winless FCS team. 54. Air Force (8-3). 55. California (5-6). 56. North Carolina St (6-5). 57. Central Florida (7-3).

TIER J: 58. Northern Illinois (9-2), but not like they were! 59. Pitt (5-6), with a win they HAD to have. 60. Rutgers (6-5). 61. Oregon St (5-6). 62. Navy (5-5).

TIER K: 63. Virginia Tech (5-6), after a terrible loss against Wake in 2OT. 64. Western Michigan (8-3). 65. Michigan (5-6), in Hoke's last season. 66. Nevada (6-5). 67. Louisiana Tech (7-4). And so ends the mid-level teams...and so begin the mediocre ones,,,

TIER L: 68. Bowling Green (8-3). 69. Georgia Southern (8-3). 70. Northwestern (5-6). 71. Virginia (4-7). 72. UL-Lafayette (7-4). 73. Houston (6-4).

TIER M: 74. Rice (7-4). 75. San Diego St (6-5). 76. Illinois (5-6). 77. Texas Tech (4-7). 79. Fresno St (5-6). 80. Temple (5-5).

TIER N: 81. Arkansas St (6-5). 82. Central Michigan (7-5). 83. Washington St (3-8). 84. Western Kentucky (6-5) and still climbing! 85. UTEP (6-5). 

Looking at the new FOLLOWING FOOTBALL tier rankings...

...our Top 4 are Alabama, Mississippi St, Florida St, and Oregon. As we noted Saturday, we're not likely to punish a team for losing by the amount expected (the Vegas spread was seven; they lost by five), especially on the road against another Tier A school. Sure, we'll move the Tide above them, but was the Seminoles' performance against an unranked, Tier G Miami squad more impressive? No. Certainly, we're much less impressed with TCU's debacle at Kansas than anything the Bulldogs did in Tuscaloosa. If you thought they'd lose at Alabama, and they do, no worse than expected - how can you punish that? To us, this is a classic case of the loss being more impressive than TCU's win.

...We made some adjustments based on some external rankings this week, in particular Peter Wolfe and Jeff Sagarin's work, but also looking through the Massey Index we linked to last week as well. If there were virtual ties within a tier, for example, we'd often turn to those sources for a second opinion (sorting out the middle of the ACC North, for example), but on a few occasions a consensus of opinions different from ours made us re-evaluate our rankings. The most blatant example was Western Kentucky, whom we had within three tiers of the bottom all year but whom every list we consulted had up in the 80's or so. Given their recent body of work (they're up to .500 now) and those opinions, we concurred and moved them up to tier O, number 88 on your radio dial...

...Looking at the list with conferences attached (yes, that's what the lower case letters after the overall record are!), a fairly clear pattern emerges: The SEC gets the benefit of the doubt if there's an extra loss on the record, particularly the West, over the closely regarded Pac-12, Big-12, and Big-10. The ACC is probably not quite as well regarded, or schools like Duke would be higher. Then there's a bit of a gap, because it takes about a two-game better record for a school from the Mountain West or the old Big East, the AAC, to match a school from one of the Power 5. (#37 is Maryland at 6-4; #38 is Boise St at 8-2.) Then, you drop down to the MAC, Conference USA, and the Sun Belt, all of whom lie essentially in a second division as it is (and the MW/AAC are fighting to stay above that). That's why Marshall sits in #25 with a 10-0 record: the schools in that "division" can't run with the "big boys" because they can't play the big boys. Rankings are determined first and foremost by one simple question: if these two teams played on a neutral field, who would win? The winner is ranked higher, the loser lower. Marshall's beaten everyone it's played...but would it beat any of the 24 teams above it? Arizona? Duke? Notre Dame? Oklahoma? It might even be generous to say that they'd beat the teams immediately below it...Utah? Clemson? Louisville? Miami-FL? We'd love to see them against West Virginia, given their proximity! 

...In fact, here's an interesting tidbit: The "strength of schedule" parameter for FCS defending champion North Dakota St is actually HIGHER than that of FBS Marshall! It's hard to argue that they're playing opponents that are comparable to what even Florida St is facing, much less the SEC!

...These tiers make for some strange bedfellows! Seeing Texas moving all the way up to #40, right below...East Carolina? And finding 6-4 Nevada at #59, right between North Carolina St (6-5) and North Carolina (5-5)! 

...Towards the bottom, in our attempt to keep our six-team tiers consistent (for a change, right?), we ended up with a "Bottom Two" - Georgia St and SMU. Despite the Mustangs' winless record, Georgia St is rated below them in many of the computer systems we looked through. Nevertheless, only a true #128 could lose the game Saturday the way they lost it - giving up a near-legendary twenty-one play drive over the course of the last six minutes of the game, including three fourth down conversions with the game on the line, and letting the opponent you've held scoreless for 3 1/2 quarters score the touchdown they had to score in the last six seconds to win. Amazing. (Admittedly, Idaho is close, though - losing to Tier T Troy, at home, by 17 points, when they'd been favored going in. That's impressive.)

Our Week 11 experimental predictions! AND RESULTS!

   Alright, we’ve put together what our tier system suggests the difference between two teams playing games this week should be. Now, we’re going to compare those to what the professionals in Las Vegas are posting as betting spreads. Remember, this is an exercise for amusement purposes only! Our numbers are NOT exact by any means, and the betting lines are as much a prediction of public perception as they are actual predictions about the games to come.

   There are seventeen games in which the line differs from our numbers enough to overcome the margin of variation in our work; they’re marked in red like this. Let’s track those this week and see how we do - if the game lands on OUR side of the casino line, we'll count it a win! And in updating this post, we'll be adding in scores in purple, like this, so we can all keep track of how it went! (EDIT: Technical problems prevented upload of the updates of this blog entry Saturday.)

Akron @ Buffalo (Tues 6 pm MST) - MAC

            Tiers R @ R means Buffalo by 3. Vegas picks Akron by 3. Score: Buffalo 55-24! FF 1, Vegas 0!

Toledo @ Northern Illinois (Tues 6 pm) - MAC

            Tiers L @ I means NIU by 7. Score: NIU 27-24. No Vegas line, but we hit that one pretty close! 

Ball St @ U Mass (Wed 6 pm) - MAC

            Tiers R @ T means an EVEN game. Vegas picks Massachusetts by 3. UMass won by two touchdowns (24-10, but they had mirror image drives for the first 20 minutes or so! It looked so promising for us!), so point, Vegas. FF 1, Vegas 1.

Kent St @ Bowling Green (Wed 6 pm) - MAC

            Tiers U @ K- means BGSU by 17. Vegas says BGSU by 13. Bowling Green 30-20.

East Carolina @ Cincinnati (Thur 5 pm) - AAC

            Tiers F @ I means ECU by 2. Vegas says by 1.  ECU won 54-46.

Southern Miss @ UTSA (Thur 6 pm) - CUSA

            Tiers R- @ S means UTSA by 2. Vegas picks them by 9. UTSA won 12-10...by TWO! We lead, 2-1! (Extra credit for nailing the spread exactly?)

Cal-Berkeley @ Southern Cal (Thur 7 pm) - PAC

            Tiers G @ C- means USC by 8. Vegas picks them by 14 ½. This could be a fascinating game! Depending on conditions and the way they choose to play it, the score might be 20-17…or 120-117! USC ends up winning by exactly 8! Cal made it close after a 31-2 first 27 minutes to make us look brilliant, and now it's FF 3, plus two Bingos, Vegas 1!

Tulsa @ Central Florida (Fri 6 pm) - AAC

            Tiers T @ L means UCF by 15. Vegas says it’s by 18. And UCF said it would be 24, winning 31-7.

Iowa @ Illinois (Sat 10 am MST) – Big 10

            Tiers H @ N means Iowa by 6. Vegas says 5 ½. Iowa win 30-14.

South Carolina @ Florida (Sat 10 am) – SEC

            Tiers G @ F- means Florida by 4. Vegas says FLA by 6. Which USC shows up? Can Florida win without that modern invention of “throwing the ball”? Stay tuned!  And thanks to a  blocked FG under 4 min to go, a blocked punt under a minute, and a "dribble-touchdown" by the Gamecocks with 12 seconds to go, USC got into overtime and won there, 23-20. Head Ball Coach Magic!

Army @ Western Kentucky (Sat 10 am)

            Tiers R @ S means WKU by 1. Vegas says the spread is 10 ½! We lost this one: WKU won 52-24, so now it's FF 3, Vegas 2.

Ohio St @ Minnesota (Sat 10 am) – Big 10

            Tiers B+ @ E means OSU by 3. Vegas favors them by 12. The pieces are all there: OSU just had a huge prime time win over the Spartans, and they could very well overlook the Gophers the way they overlooked the Hokies! Even though the chart says Buckeyes, we’re thinking Gophers! With the Gophers fighting back to within 7 (OSU won 31-24), we have to call this a draw. However...why did Jerry Kill kick the FG so early, with 1:23 to go, on second down? Why not try for the TD when you're inside the 20?

Temple @ Penn St (Sat 10 am)

            Tiers K @ H means Penn St by 7. Vegas picks them by 9. That is, assuming either teams scores seven points… PSU did: Nittany Lions won 30-13.

Clemson @ Georgia Tech (Sat 10 am) – ACC

            Tiers E @ D means GT by 5. Vegas says it'll be Clemson by 3! The Ramblin’ Wreck is on a ramblin’ roll and could very well steamroll the Tigers at home; we’re kinda partial to GT anyway, but our hunch is to disagree with the “system”… AND they rolled, all right: Georgia Tech 28, Clemson 6. Back-up Clemson QB Cole Standt completed six of his 11 passes: three to Clemson players, three to Yellowjackets! (His one TD went the wrong way, too.) FF 4, Vegas 2!

Virginia Tech @ Duke (Sat 10 am) – ACC

            Tiers D+ @ K means Duke by 8. Vegas says 7. We were both wrong. Va-Tech upsets the Blue Devils (strange sentence to write!), 17-16. So much for Duke's faint playoff hopes...

Pitt @ North Carolina (Sat 10:30 am) – ACC

            Tiers J @ J means UNC by 3. Vegas says 2. Carolina won a great back-n-forth game by five, 40-35.

Miami-OH @ Central Michigan (Sat 11 am) – MAC

            Tiers T @ M means CMU by 14. Vegas lists the spread as 15. CMU by 7, 34-27.

Nevada @ Air Force (Sat noon) – MW

            Tiers J @ H means AFA by 6. Vegas says it's more like 2 1/2. It took overtime for Air Force to win by 7...and we always think that should count as a "win by zero", personally.

Eastern Michigan @ Western Michigan (Sat noon) – MAC

            Tiers T @ M means WMU by 14. Vegas favors Western by 25 ½. And we both underestimated: 51-7. So, point Vegas...FF 4, Vegas 3.

Rice @ Marshall (Sat 12:30 pm) – CUSA

            Tiers M @ E means Marshall by 15. The pro spread is 20. Final score 41-14, Thundering Herd. (They almost ended the night as the ONLY unbeaten...)

Wake Forest @ North Carolina St (Sat 1 pm) – ACC

            Tiers Q @ J means NCSU by 14. Vegas agrees (well, 13 ½). Wolfpack 42-13.

Texas Christian @ Kansas (Sat 1 pm) – Big 12

            Tiers A @ Q means TCU by 21. Vegas goes up to 27, but we’ll say close enough. In the best "almost-upset" of the year, TCU had to come from behind in the second half and won by four, 34-30. Good on ya, Jayhawks! That was more impressive than your actual win last week! Would it have been appropriate or understandable for the fans to storm the field after a close loss to the #4 team, given Kansas' history?

Appalachian St @ Arkansas St (Sat 1 pm) – Sun Belt

            Tiers R+ @ M means Ark St by 9. Vegas says it’ll be 14. UPSET, App St! 37-32!

Indiana @ Rutgers (Sat 1:30 pm) – Big 10

            Tiers P @ I means Rutgers by 13. Vegas argues it’ll only be a 7 point game. And WE WIN this one: 45-23, Scarlet Knights! FF 5, Vegas 3!

Mississippi St @ Alabama (Sat 1:30 pm) – SEC

            Tiers A @ A means ‘Bama by 3. Vegas picks the Tide by 7. This is IT! This is the game of the season, in our opinion. Finish your chores, get your snacks and beverages ready, and settle in. The two best teams in the country: Nick Saban and the unbeatable multiple champion Crimson Tide host the upstarts from Mississippi, where nothing ever goes right…except THIS year, this “sold their soul to the devil” year. Our greatest wish is that the game lives up to the billing! A game that lived up to its billing. Would the "fumble" at the goal line the officials originally gave to MSU (correctly, it seemed to us) really have made the TD swing that would have prevented a 25-20 Bulldog loss? Impossible to tell, but Mississippi St won't drop out of Tier A on our ranking because they lost by the expected spread on the home field of another Tier A team! As for the oddsmakers, 5 points splits the difference - call it a draw.

Georgia Southern @ Navy (Sat 1:30 pm)

            Tiers K @ L means Navy by 1. Vegas stretches that to 3 ½. Navy stretches it to 33 (52-19).

Memphis @ Tulane (Sat 1:30 pm) – AAC

            Tiers J @ Q means Memphis by 8. Vegas makes it 10. Memphis made it 31.

Nebraska @ Wisconsin (Sat 1:30 pm) – Big 10

            Tiers B @ D means an EVEN game. Wisconsin’s a 6 point favorite in Nevada. And brother, were they right! We'll post about Melvin Gordon's day elsewhere today, but 408 rushing yards in three quarters is as eye opening as it gets. We wish they'd left him in there to hit five hundred...the 59-24 annihilation of the Huskers makes it FF 5, Vegas 4.

Northwestern @ Notre Dame (Sat 1:30 pm)

            Tiers N @ B means ND by 21. It’s 16 ½ in Vegas’ eyes. Notre Dame found an impressive way to give the game away yesterday. A first quarter blocked XP run back for two, the decision to make that up too early by Coach Kelly, the 4-to-go TD w/ 2-pt conversion, last second 47 yard FG and game winning 41 yard FG by a kicker who'd never kicked a thirty-yarder before yesterday...Amazing. 43-40, NU.

Middle Tennessee @ Florida International (Sat 1:30 pm) – CUSA

            Tiers O- @ R means MTSU by 2. Vegas favors them by 4. MTSU 38-28.

Oklahoma @ Texas Tech (Sat 1:30 pm) – Big 12

            Tiers E @ N means OU by 10. Vegas picks the Sooners by 14. Sooners split the difference, 42-30.

Washington @ Arizona (Sat 1:30 pm) – PAC

            Tiers H- @ C means Arizona by 11. The difference is 8 ½ in Vegas. It was "one" on the field, 27-26, and "won" on the sideline, when our favorite coach, Chris Petersen, tried to ice the kicker but instead cancelled out the game-losing FG by Arizona, who then made the second chance to win it. Heartbreaking for UW - they deserved to win the game.

New Mexico @ Utah St (Sat 2 pm) – MW

            Tiers S+ @ G- means USU by 19. Vegas says 16. The Aggies barely hung on, 28-21.

Kentucky @ Tennessee (Sat 2 pm) – SEC

            Tiers G @ I means an EVEN game. The spread in Vegas is Tennessee by 7 ½! One of a half-dozen pick’em games this weekend in our eyes, some being traditional rivalries like this one. We lean towards UK. We just have too much faith in the Wildcats. Early season form has failed to hold - 50-16, UT. Vegas 5, FF 5.

Hawaii @ San Jose St (Sat 2:30 pm) – MW

            Tiers S @ P- means SJSU by 7. Vegas says the spread is 10. Amazingly, the Warriors shut out an opponent on the road, 13-0! Poor Spartans have fallen on hard times, too.

Troy @ Idaho (Sat 3 pm) – Sun Belt

            Tiers T @ U means Idaho by 1. Vegas says the Vandals by 5. Should've known. Given a home game they should win, the Vandals folded like a bedsheet: awkwardly and crumpled. 34-17, Trojans.

Utah @ Stanford (Sat 4 pm) – PAC

            Tiers D @ H means Utah by 3. Vegas takes Stanford by 7! Utah wins a game that went to OT just 7-7, scoring a TD in the second OT to win 20-17. FF 6, Vegas 5, just barely.

Louisiana-Lafayette @ Louisiana-Monroe (Sat 5 pm) – Sun Belt

            Tiers L @ P- means Lafayette by 4. Vegas picks them by 7 ½. Lafayette 34-27,

Nevada-Las Vegas @ Brigham Young (Sat 5 pm)

            Tiers S @ L means BYU by 14. Vegas gives the Cougars a 24 point gap! Split the difference: 19 points, 42-23, although UNLV gave them a great battle in the first half. Call it a draw.

Auburn @ Georgia (Sat 5:15 pm) – SEC

            Tiers B @ C means Georgia by 1. Casinos are pitching 2 ½ points. Once again, Georgia demonstrates how overpowering they can be, walloping top-level Auburn 34-7.

Texas St @ South Alabama (Sat 5:30 pm) – Sun Belt

            Tiers O @ Q means an EVEN game. Vegas chooses Texas St by 4. And South Alabama won, 24-20!  Make it 7-5, FF!

Texas @ Oklahoma St (Sat 5:30 pm) – Big 12

            Tiers I @ G means an EVEN game. Vegas recommends Texas by 2. Glad this wasn't one we'd "bet" on - the Longhorns looked lethal last night, winning 28-7. Impressive victory for Charlie Strong.

Missouri @ Texas A&M (Sat 5:30 pm) – SEC

            Tiers D @ F means an EVEN game. Vegas says A&M by 5 ½. (Really?) Sorry, Pastor, but we were right: although the Aggies led much of the first half, the Tigers had much more to play for: 34-27. Mizzou. FF 8, Vegas 5.

LSU @ Arkansas (Sat 6 pm) – SEC

            Tiers C @ H means LSU by 5. Vegas chooses Arkansas by 2 ½! And they were right. The Razorbacks managed to shut out LSU 17-0. Point, Vegas: 8-6, FF.

Florida St @ Miami-FL (Sat 6 pm)

            Tiers A @ F means FSU by 5. Or take 2 ½, according to Nevada oddsmakers. Hard to see the Hurricanes staying that close, but for Winston to keep up his last-moment savior rep, s’pose that’s the way it’ll have to be! Great game for Al Golden, Duke Johnson, and the Hurricanes, but it seems that was necessary for the "Jamies Magic" to save the day, 30-26. Amazing. No one wants to call them #1, but the defending champs are still undefeated, and would you really want to bet against them if they somehow still have number 5 behind center?

South Florida @ Southern Methodist (Sat 6 pm) – AAC

            Tiers P @ U- means USF by 7. Vegas says the spread is 10. ONLY SMU could lose a game like this! More about this game in another post, but after being shut out for 3 1/2 quarters, the Bulls went on a six-minute, game-ending, 21 play drive (you read that right: twenty-one plays!) that included three successful fourth down conversions and ended in a touchdown pass (on fourth down, of course) to win the game, 14-13. Glad the Mustangs showed some life, but HOLY CATFISH! What a way to lose the game!

Michigan St @ Maryland (Sat 6 pm) – Big 10

            Tiers C+ @ F means Michigan St by 2. Vegas chooses the Spartans by 11! And they were half right - Spartans by 22, 37-15. Point Vegas, but it's too late: FOLLOWING FOOTBALL 8, VEGAS 7! Huzzah! Three cheers for a meaningless victory for us!

North Texas @ Texas-El Paso (Sat 8 pm) – CUSA

            Tiers R @ M means UTEP by 10. The line is 6 ½ in Las Vegas.  We were closer, for what it's worth: 35-17, Miners by 18.

San Diego St @ Boise St (Sat 8:15 pm) – MW

            Tiers N @ G- means BSU by 13. It’s 14 in Vegas. SDSU is a tough out for the Broncos, and it showed again last night: it took four quarters for Boise to pull out a 37-29 victory.

Arizona St @ Oregon St (Sat 8:45 pm) – PAC

            Tiers B @ J means ASU by 7. The line is 9 in Las Vegas. The Pac-12 has to rest its hopes on the Ducks now, as the Sun Devils fell after midnight last night, 35-27, to a very good OSU team that's completely capable of ruining Oregon's season in the Civil War in two weeks, too!

So, if you're keeping track, of the fifteen games that our predictions differed significantly enough from Vegas that we'd have been interested in wagering on the games, we were on the winning side of the margin 8 out of 15 times, with three draws. (If we'd have bet those, we'd have won, but our game here was who was closer with their prediction, not were we on the winning side.) Going back through all fifty games, if we'd simply bet a dollar on the spread of every one of those fifty games given how our tier-tracker predicted, we'd have won four bucks - we went 27 and 23. Again, do NOT use our forecasts for gambling purposes. But it's fun to track, and it gives us a better idea when we're watching a true upset in the making! Thanks for playing along!

Loose ends from Week 8...

Savannah St fell to 0-8 yesterday, losing at North Carolina Central 42-21. They have now lost seventeen in a row...

On the flip side, the defending FCS champion North Dakota St Bison won 47-7 over South Dakota to move to 8-0, and consecutive win number 32...

The Arizona Cardinals had two 75+ yard pass plays for touchdowns, the last under two minutes to go, to beat the Philadelphia Eagles 24-20. What were the odds of the Cards being two full games up on Seattle AND San Francisco after Week 8?...

Have you seen the standings in the AFC North? All four teams are within a half-game of each other: Cincinnati at 4-2-1, Pittsburgh and Baltimore at 5-3, and Cleveland at 4-3!...

Conversely, everyone in the NFC South is below .500 - Carolina leads at 3-4-1, the Saints are at 2-4 pending tonight's game, Atlanta fell to 2-6 after leading 21-0 at halftime, and Jacksonville is...Jacksonville...

TCU scored 82 points on Texas Tech yesterday, a real FBS school. This was the highest point total of the year, surpassing North Texas' defeat of Nicholls St 77-3, which we argue SHOULD NOT COUNT because it was against an FCS team (never mind that it was an 0-9 school who lost by two TDs to a Division II team). So, for that reason, glad TCU set the new season high. (If those games don't count towards your win total for bowl games, they shouldn't count for anything else, either!)...

That wasn't the only high number put up Saturday - Georgia Southern put 69 on Georgia St (69-31), Western Kentucky beat Old Dominion 66-51, and Tier C Arizona took out Washington St 59-37, only after having shifted into low gear for the fourth quarter...

And in the FCS, not only did Alcorn St ruin the last game at Blackshaw Field for Prairie View by scoring 77 on them (winning 77-48), but Murray St laid a woodshed whoop'n on Kentucky Wesleyen 86-29... and it should've been worse, except they hung onto the ball for the last seven minutes, finishing the game by kneeling on the KW seven yard line... 

Michigan St scored a last minute TD against Michigan to stretch their winning margin to 35-11. Why? Because the Wolverine players were jerks. Apparently, they decided to 'stake' the center Spartan when they came out onto the field, always a wise move against your cross-state rival when they're 7-1 and you're falling apart at the seams. Our early candidate for stupid jerk move of the year...

In the pros, Geno Smith of the New York Jets posted one of the saddest stat lines ever before being pulled for Michael Vick (who didn't help much, either, as Buffalo creamed them): 2 for 8, for five yards, w 3 interceptions. A rating of 0.0; perfection!

On the flip side, having already lauded Ben Roethlisberger's day for the Steelers, let's check the great Tom Brady's line for the New England Patriots: 30-35 for 354 yards, five TDs and no picks. Pats beat the Bears 51-23.