Our Week 11 experimental predictions! AND RESULTS!

   Alright, we’ve put together what our tier system suggests the difference between two teams playing games this week should be. Now, we’re going to compare those to what the professionals in Las Vegas are posting as betting spreads. Remember, this is an exercise for amusement purposes only! Our numbers are NOT exact by any means, and the betting lines are as much a prediction of public perception as they are actual predictions about the games to come.

   There are seventeen games in which the line differs from our numbers enough to overcome the margin of variation in our work; they’re marked in red like this. Let’s track those this week and see how we do - if the game lands on OUR side of the casino line, we'll count it a win! And in updating this post, we'll be adding in scores in purple, like this, so we can all keep track of how it went! (EDIT: Technical problems prevented upload of the updates of this blog entry Saturday.)

Akron @ Buffalo (Tues 6 pm MST) - MAC

            Tiers R @ R means Buffalo by 3. Vegas picks Akron by 3. Score: Buffalo 55-24! FF 1, Vegas 0!

Toledo @ Northern Illinois (Tues 6 pm) - MAC

            Tiers L @ I means NIU by 7. Score: NIU 27-24. No Vegas line, but we hit that one pretty close! 

Ball St @ U Mass (Wed 6 pm) - MAC

            Tiers R @ T means an EVEN game. Vegas picks Massachusetts by 3. UMass won by two touchdowns (24-10, but they had mirror image drives for the first 20 minutes or so! It looked so promising for us!), so point, Vegas. FF 1, Vegas 1.

Kent St @ Bowling Green (Wed 6 pm) - MAC

            Tiers U @ K- means BGSU by 17. Vegas says BGSU by 13. Bowling Green 30-20.

East Carolina @ Cincinnati (Thur 5 pm) - AAC

            Tiers F @ I means ECU by 2. Vegas says by 1.  ECU won 54-46.

Southern Miss @ UTSA (Thur 6 pm) - CUSA

            Tiers R- @ S means UTSA by 2. Vegas picks them by 9. UTSA won 12-10...by TWO! We lead, 2-1! (Extra credit for nailing the spread exactly?)

Cal-Berkeley @ Southern Cal (Thur 7 pm) - PAC

            Tiers G @ C- means USC by 8. Vegas picks them by 14 ½. This could be a fascinating game! Depending on conditions and the way they choose to play it, the score might be 20-17…or 120-117! USC ends up winning by exactly 8! Cal made it close after a 31-2 first 27 minutes to make us look brilliant, and now it's FF 3, plus two Bingos, Vegas 1!

Tulsa @ Central Florida (Fri 6 pm) - AAC

            Tiers T @ L means UCF by 15. Vegas says it’s by 18. And UCF said it would be 24, winning 31-7.

Iowa @ Illinois (Sat 10 am MST) – Big 10

            Tiers H @ N means Iowa by 6. Vegas says 5 ½. Iowa win 30-14.

South Carolina @ Florida (Sat 10 am) – SEC

            Tiers G @ F- means Florida by 4. Vegas says FLA by 6. Which USC shows up? Can Florida win without that modern invention of “throwing the ball”? Stay tuned!  And thanks to a  blocked FG under 4 min to go, a blocked punt under a minute, and a "dribble-touchdown" by the Gamecocks with 12 seconds to go, USC got into overtime and won there, 23-20. Head Ball Coach Magic!

Army @ Western Kentucky (Sat 10 am)

            Tiers R @ S means WKU by 1. Vegas says the spread is 10 ½! We lost this one: WKU won 52-24, so now it's FF 3, Vegas 2.

Ohio St @ Minnesota (Sat 10 am) – Big 10

            Tiers B+ @ E means OSU by 3. Vegas favors them by 12. The pieces are all there: OSU just had a huge prime time win over the Spartans, and they could very well overlook the Gophers the way they overlooked the Hokies! Even though the chart says Buckeyes, we’re thinking Gophers! With the Gophers fighting back to within 7 (OSU won 31-24), we have to call this a draw. However...why did Jerry Kill kick the FG so early, with 1:23 to go, on second down? Why not try for the TD when you're inside the 20?

Temple @ Penn St (Sat 10 am)

            Tiers K @ H means Penn St by 7. Vegas picks them by 9. That is, assuming either teams scores seven points… PSU did: Nittany Lions won 30-13.

Clemson @ Georgia Tech (Sat 10 am) – ACC

            Tiers E @ D means GT by 5. Vegas says it'll be Clemson by 3! The Ramblin’ Wreck is on a ramblin’ roll and could very well steamroll the Tigers at home; we’re kinda partial to GT anyway, but our hunch is to disagree with the “system”… AND they rolled, all right: Georgia Tech 28, Clemson 6. Back-up Clemson QB Cole Standt completed six of his 11 passes: three to Clemson players, three to Yellowjackets! (His one TD went the wrong way, too.) FF 4, Vegas 2!

Virginia Tech @ Duke (Sat 10 am) – ACC

            Tiers D+ @ K means Duke by 8. Vegas says 7. We were both wrong. Va-Tech upsets the Blue Devils (strange sentence to write!), 17-16. So much for Duke's faint playoff hopes...

Pitt @ North Carolina (Sat 10:30 am) – ACC

            Tiers J @ J means UNC by 3. Vegas says 2. Carolina won a great back-n-forth game by five, 40-35.

Miami-OH @ Central Michigan (Sat 11 am) – MAC

            Tiers T @ M means CMU by 14. Vegas lists the spread as 15. CMU by 7, 34-27.

Nevada @ Air Force (Sat noon) – MW

            Tiers J @ H means AFA by 6. Vegas says it's more like 2 1/2. It took overtime for Air Force to win by 7...and we always think that should count as a "win by zero", personally.

Eastern Michigan @ Western Michigan (Sat noon) – MAC

            Tiers T @ M means WMU by 14. Vegas favors Western by 25 ½. And we both underestimated: 51-7. So, point Vegas...FF 4, Vegas 3.

Rice @ Marshall (Sat 12:30 pm) – CUSA

            Tiers M @ E means Marshall by 15. The pro spread is 20. Final score 41-14, Thundering Herd. (They almost ended the night as the ONLY unbeaten...)

Wake Forest @ North Carolina St (Sat 1 pm) – ACC

            Tiers Q @ J means NCSU by 14. Vegas agrees (well, 13 ½). Wolfpack 42-13.

Texas Christian @ Kansas (Sat 1 pm) – Big 12

            Tiers A @ Q means TCU by 21. Vegas goes up to 27, but we’ll say close enough. In the best "almost-upset" of the year, TCU had to come from behind in the second half and won by four, 34-30. Good on ya, Jayhawks! That was more impressive than your actual win last week! Would it have been appropriate or understandable for the fans to storm the field after a close loss to the #4 team, given Kansas' history?

Appalachian St @ Arkansas St (Sat 1 pm) – Sun Belt

            Tiers R+ @ M means Ark St by 9. Vegas says it’ll be 14. UPSET, App St! 37-32!

Indiana @ Rutgers (Sat 1:30 pm) – Big 10

            Tiers P @ I means Rutgers by 13. Vegas argues it’ll only be a 7 point game. And WE WIN this one: 45-23, Scarlet Knights! FF 5, Vegas 3!

Mississippi St @ Alabama (Sat 1:30 pm) – SEC

            Tiers A @ A means ‘Bama by 3. Vegas picks the Tide by 7. This is IT! This is the game of the season, in our opinion. Finish your chores, get your snacks and beverages ready, and settle in. The two best teams in the country: Nick Saban and the unbeatable multiple champion Crimson Tide host the upstarts from Mississippi, where nothing ever goes right…except THIS year, this “sold their soul to the devil” year. Our greatest wish is that the game lives up to the billing! A game that lived up to its billing. Would the "fumble" at the goal line the officials originally gave to MSU (correctly, it seemed to us) really have made the TD swing that would have prevented a 25-20 Bulldog loss? Impossible to tell, but Mississippi St won't drop out of Tier A on our ranking because they lost by the expected spread on the home field of another Tier A team! As for the oddsmakers, 5 points splits the difference - call it a draw.

Georgia Southern @ Navy (Sat 1:30 pm)

            Tiers K @ L means Navy by 1. Vegas stretches that to 3 ½. Navy stretches it to 33 (52-19).

Memphis @ Tulane (Sat 1:30 pm) – AAC

            Tiers J @ Q means Memphis by 8. Vegas makes it 10. Memphis made it 31.

Nebraska @ Wisconsin (Sat 1:30 pm) – Big 10

            Tiers B @ D means an EVEN game. Wisconsin’s a 6 point favorite in Nevada. And brother, were they right! We'll post about Melvin Gordon's day elsewhere today, but 408 rushing yards in three quarters is as eye opening as it gets. We wish they'd left him in there to hit five hundred...the 59-24 annihilation of the Huskers makes it FF 5, Vegas 4.

Northwestern @ Notre Dame (Sat 1:30 pm)

            Tiers N @ B means ND by 21. It’s 16 ½ in Vegas’ eyes. Notre Dame found an impressive way to give the game away yesterday. A first quarter blocked XP run back for two, the decision to make that up too early by Coach Kelly, the 4-to-go TD w/ 2-pt conversion, last second 47 yard FG and game winning 41 yard FG by a kicker who'd never kicked a thirty-yarder before yesterday...Amazing. 43-40, NU.

Middle Tennessee @ Florida International (Sat 1:30 pm) – CUSA

            Tiers O- @ R means MTSU by 2. Vegas favors them by 4. MTSU 38-28.

Oklahoma @ Texas Tech (Sat 1:30 pm) – Big 12

            Tiers E @ N means OU by 10. Vegas picks the Sooners by 14. Sooners split the difference, 42-30.

Washington @ Arizona (Sat 1:30 pm) – PAC

            Tiers H- @ C means Arizona by 11. The difference is 8 ½ in Vegas. It was "one" on the field, 27-26, and "won" on the sideline, when our favorite coach, Chris Petersen, tried to ice the kicker but instead cancelled out the game-losing FG by Arizona, who then made the second chance to win it. Heartbreaking for UW - they deserved to win the game.

New Mexico @ Utah St (Sat 2 pm) – MW

            Tiers S+ @ G- means USU by 19. Vegas says 16. The Aggies barely hung on, 28-21.

Kentucky @ Tennessee (Sat 2 pm) – SEC

            Tiers G @ I means an EVEN game. The spread in Vegas is Tennessee by 7 ½! One of a half-dozen pick’em games this weekend in our eyes, some being traditional rivalries like this one. We lean towards UK. We just have too much faith in the Wildcats. Early season form has failed to hold - 50-16, UT. Vegas 5, FF 5.

Hawaii @ San Jose St (Sat 2:30 pm) – MW

            Tiers S @ P- means SJSU by 7. Vegas says the spread is 10. Amazingly, the Warriors shut out an opponent on the road, 13-0! Poor Spartans have fallen on hard times, too.

Troy @ Idaho (Sat 3 pm) – Sun Belt

            Tiers T @ U means Idaho by 1. Vegas says the Vandals by 5. Should've known. Given a home game they should win, the Vandals folded like a bedsheet: awkwardly and crumpled. 34-17, Trojans.

Utah @ Stanford (Sat 4 pm) – PAC

            Tiers D @ H means Utah by 3. Vegas takes Stanford by 7! Utah wins a game that went to OT just 7-7, scoring a TD in the second OT to win 20-17. FF 6, Vegas 5, just barely.

Louisiana-Lafayette @ Louisiana-Monroe (Sat 5 pm) – Sun Belt

            Tiers L @ P- means Lafayette by 4. Vegas picks them by 7 ½. Lafayette 34-27,

Nevada-Las Vegas @ Brigham Young (Sat 5 pm)

            Tiers S @ L means BYU by 14. Vegas gives the Cougars a 24 point gap! Split the difference: 19 points, 42-23, although UNLV gave them a great battle in the first half. Call it a draw.

Auburn @ Georgia (Sat 5:15 pm) – SEC

            Tiers B @ C means Georgia by 1. Casinos are pitching 2 ½ points. Once again, Georgia demonstrates how overpowering they can be, walloping top-level Auburn 34-7.

Texas St @ South Alabama (Sat 5:30 pm) – Sun Belt

            Tiers O @ Q means an EVEN game. Vegas chooses Texas St by 4. And South Alabama won, 24-20!  Make it 7-5, FF!

Texas @ Oklahoma St (Sat 5:30 pm) – Big 12

            Tiers I @ G means an EVEN game. Vegas recommends Texas by 2. Glad this wasn't one we'd "bet" on - the Longhorns looked lethal last night, winning 28-7. Impressive victory for Charlie Strong.

Missouri @ Texas A&M (Sat 5:30 pm) – SEC

            Tiers D @ F means an EVEN game. Vegas says A&M by 5 ½. (Really?) Sorry, Pastor, but we were right: although the Aggies led much of the first half, the Tigers had much more to play for: 34-27. Mizzou. FF 8, Vegas 5.

LSU @ Arkansas (Sat 6 pm) – SEC

            Tiers C @ H means LSU by 5. Vegas chooses Arkansas by 2 ½! And they were right. The Razorbacks managed to shut out LSU 17-0. Point, Vegas: 8-6, FF.

Florida St @ Miami-FL (Sat 6 pm)

            Tiers A @ F means FSU by 5. Or take 2 ½, according to Nevada oddsmakers. Hard to see the Hurricanes staying that close, but for Winston to keep up his last-moment savior rep, s’pose that’s the way it’ll have to be! Great game for Al Golden, Duke Johnson, and the Hurricanes, but it seems that was necessary for the "Jamies Magic" to save the day, 30-26. Amazing. No one wants to call them #1, but the defending champs are still undefeated, and would you really want to bet against them if they somehow still have number 5 behind center?

South Florida @ Southern Methodist (Sat 6 pm) – AAC

            Tiers P @ U- means USF by 7. Vegas says the spread is 10. ONLY SMU could lose a game like this! More about this game in another post, but after being shut out for 3 1/2 quarters, the Bulls went on a six-minute, game-ending, 21 play drive (you read that right: twenty-one plays!) that included three successful fourth down conversions and ended in a touchdown pass (on fourth down, of course) to win the game, 14-13. Glad the Mustangs showed some life, but HOLY CATFISH! What a way to lose the game!

Michigan St @ Maryland (Sat 6 pm) – Big 10

            Tiers C+ @ F means Michigan St by 2. Vegas chooses the Spartans by 11! And they were half right - Spartans by 22, 37-15. Point Vegas, but it's too late: FOLLOWING FOOTBALL 8, VEGAS 7! Huzzah! Three cheers for a meaningless victory for us!

North Texas @ Texas-El Paso (Sat 8 pm) – CUSA

            Tiers R @ M means UTEP by 10. The line is 6 ½ in Las Vegas.  We were closer, for what it's worth: 35-17, Miners by 18.

San Diego St @ Boise St (Sat 8:15 pm) – MW

            Tiers N @ G- means BSU by 13. It’s 14 in Vegas. SDSU is a tough out for the Broncos, and it showed again last night: it took four quarters for Boise to pull out a 37-29 victory.

Arizona St @ Oregon St (Sat 8:45 pm) – PAC

            Tiers B @ J means ASU by 7. The line is 9 in Las Vegas. The Pac-12 has to rest its hopes on the Ducks now, as the Sun Devils fell after midnight last night, 35-27, to a very good OSU team that's completely capable of ruining Oregon's season in the Civil War in two weeks, too!

So, if you're keeping track, of the fifteen games that our predictions differed significantly enough from Vegas that we'd have been interested in wagering on the games, we were on the winning side of the margin 8 out of 15 times, with three draws. (If we'd have bet those, we'd have won, but our game here was who was closer with their prediction, not were we on the winning side.) Going back through all fifty games, if we'd simply bet a dollar on the spread of every one of those fifty games given how our tier-tracker predicted, we'd have won four bucks - we went 27 and 23. Again, do NOT use our forecasts for gambling purposes. But it's fun to track, and it gives us a better idea when we're watching a true upset in the making! Thanks for playing along!