Let’s start with the NCAA for a
change! We’re going to address each
conference separately, looking for FOUR specific games in each (so we may not
hit every single game):
Game
Of The Week (Which
of this week’s games is most important or interesting?)
Blowout
Game (Which game should
be over by halftime?)
Best
Bet In Vegas
(Which game does Following Football
think gives folks the best chance to win a bet?)
Other
Games Of Interest
(The catch-all category of games we hadn’t mentioned yet but we want
to!)
HERE WE
GO!
Big
Ten GOTW – Either Penn
St @ Northwestern (-2.5, give
the points) or Illinois @
Purdue (-1, take IU to win).
Blowout
– Rutgers @ Michigan (-22, and still give the points!).
BBIV
– Iowa @
Indiana (+6.5, but
Iowa will win by double that!)
Of
interest? – Michigan St
@ Nebraska (+4.5,
but has Big Red given up already?) and Minnesota
@ Ohio St (-23, can the Gophers keep fighting for their epileptic retired
coach like last week?)
Big
XII GOTW – Definitely
TCU @ Oklahoma St (+5; we see
it as a field goal difference). The first of the four team round robin to
determine the XII’s “one true champion”!
Blowout
– Anything
involving Kansas. This week, it’s Kansas
@ Texas (-28.5, but we think Texas may also be giving up) and also Iowa
St @ Oklahoma (-24.5, but OU
will want to run it up).
BBIV
– Nothing looks obvious…
Of
interest? Baylor
@ K-St (-17.5, and
rely on the Bears to run it up, even with a new QB) and we’re very curious about Texas Tech @ West Virginia (-7.5, just a tad high?).
ACC
Game of the YEAR –
To decide the Atlantic division, and probably the conference, Florida St @ Clemson (-12, only on a hunch –
our numbers match Vegas’).
Blowout – Not much of one: Syracuse @ Louisville (-11.5, take the
Cardinals).
BBIV – Duke @ North Carolina (-8.5, but think of Duke as a one-loss
team, not two: Miami doesn’t count!)
Of
interest? Notre Dame comes to Pitt
(+8.5, too low a line) in the Irish’ continued joint venture with the Atlantic
Coast schools that’s supposed to net them…what?
Pac
12 GOTW – Utah
@ Washington (+1.5;
it should be Utah winning, and anything except a one-point win means give the 1
½ points, right?)
Blowout
– Stanford
@ Colorado (+16.5,
but it should be at least three TDs).
BBIV
– California
@ Oregon (-5.5,
but the Ducks are living on last year’s rep. This should be an even game.)
Of
interest? The
markers on the Arizona St
@ Washington St (-2.5) game are all over the place – it seems as likely for
one team to win as the other, although Wazzu took Stanford to the wall last
week…
SEC
Game of the YEAR (another one?) LSU @ Alabama (-6.5). If LSU’s unbeaten, and
ranked higher than ‘Bama…why is the Tide a TD favorite? We’ve got indicators
both ways – and so we’re going to bet this way: Take the UNDER (47.5 total points). We think it’s
more of a 21-17 game than a 35-31 one.
Blowout
– Vanderbilt
@ Florida (-21,
and we’re taking a flyer on Vandy’s defense here).
BBIV
– We like the odds
for the next two West division squads at home Saturday: Arkansas @ Ole Miss (-10.5) and Auburn @ Texas A&M (-7) – take the home
teams to cover.
Of
interest? What
happens when Mississippi St
goes to Mizzou (+7.5)? Both teams are kind of all over the place! We’re
taking the Bulldogs but not confidently.
American
GOTW – Like the
Big Twelve, we’re entering the round-robin elimination phase: Navy @ Memphis (-8.5; close call, but
here’s to hoping that the Tigers smell blood and the chance to do something
special with this season).
Blowout – Temple @ SMU (-12, not exactly a blowout…but it will
be…).
Of
interest? Cincinnati
@ Houston (-8.5; when in doubt bet for the
Cougars) and Central Florida @ Tulsa
(-15.5; when in doubt, go against UCF…).
Conference
USA GOTW – Marshall @
Middle Tennessee
(-3, unbelievably – why isn’t Marshall favored? Take the Herd!). Also,
obviously, our BBIV.
Blowouts
– Two classics: North
Texas @ Louisiana Tech (-29, and
it’s still not high enough), and Florida Atlantic @ Western Kentucky (-24.5, ditto).
Of
interest? A
middle-of-the-road game, Rice @
UTEP (+7, take the Owls), and a bottom-of-the-ladder game, Old Dominion @ UTSA (-11,
but that’s too high – take the points with ODU).
Mountain
West GOTW – Not
much, so let’s look at the two OOC games: BYU
@ San Jose St (+12, but the Cougars should cover that) and Army-WP @ Air Force (-17; we have the
Commander-In-Chief trophy game at -23 ourselves).
Blowout
– Utah St @
New Mexico (+14).
BBIV
– Colorado St @
Wyoming
(+10.5, but it
should be less).
Of
Interest? Nevada
@ Fresno St (+4.5, too high) and Hawaii @ UNLV (-9.5, too low)
Sun
Belt GOTW – The
second of the championship games, Arkansas St @ Appalachian St (-12, too low by a TD). With a win Thursday
night, App St should virtually clinch its first conference title as an FBS
team, in just its second year.
Blowout
– New Mexico St
(it often is!) @ Texas St (-15.5, but it may not be THAT bad…)
BBIV
– Can’t believe UL-Lafayette is only favored
by 4 at Georgia St!
Of
interest – Always
interested in what Idaho
does @ South Alabama (-9.5, too high).
MAC
Game of Last Week – We’re
into November, which means the MAC is into its Tuesday/Wednesday swing. Northern Illinois beat Toledo in the Glass
Bowl, 32-27, and to be honest, we called it the other way.
Blowout
– This one we
nailed: Bowling Green at
home over Ohio, 62-24 (the spread was 19.5 points).
BBIV
– Akron
@ U Mass (-1.5,
but Akron should win outright!)
Of
interest – Eastern Michigan has the longest
conference losing streak in the nation, but play @ Miami-OH Saturday,
who is only favored by 5.5 points. Here’s betting EMU breaks that streak, and
gives the Redhawks the longest losing
streak in the conference…
Advance
notice of NEXT week’s early games – Of
course we don’t know point spreads yet, but for the Tuesday games we like Ohio over Kent St at home
and for once-beaten Toledo
to handle Central Michigan up north. Then on Wednesday, two road teams
should win: Bowling Green @
Western Michigan and Northern
Illinois over Buffalo.
FCS:
Missouri Valley Game of the Week: Illinois
State @ South Dakota St (there is no point spread on FCS
games, but we expect SDSU to win a close one.
Blowout:
Whomever Missouri
State has to play: MSU @ Youngstown
St (by 28+).
Of
interest: Southern
Illinois @ South Dakota – Sagarin and HERO have SIU the favorite; we like
South Dakota at home. Let’s see who’s right!
Colonial
GOTW: Richmond
@ New Hampshire.
We think the Spiders keep it going – they took down JMU on the road (in front
of ESPN!), and they’ll win this one, too.
Blowout:
William & Mary
@ Elon by at least
17.
Of
Interest: We have Towson winning at Maine, but
others don’t – again, we’ll find out!
Big
Sky GOTW: Southern Utah
@ Montana State- a
good test, but one we think SUU will win by a TD.
Blowouts:
Plural – Portland State @ Northern
Colorado (by at least 15) and Cal
Poly at home vs Sacramento St (also by 15+).
Of
Interest: Following Football is
heading down to Pocatello this weekend to see Montana play at Idaho State with a UM grad friend and
our ISU freshman son. Expecting a Grizzly victory by 14 or so, but hoping for
something closer!
Southland
GOTW: A HUGE GAME,
maybe the biggest of the season: Sam Houston State @ McNeese State! SHSU is the experienced team, but McNeese is
unbeaten and at home – we’ll take the latter to virtually clinch the division
Saturday night!
Blowout:
Nicholls St @ Lamar, where the latter wins by 20+ this weekend.
Of
Interest: The
other potentially close game this week is Abilene Christian @ Northwestern St, and we’re calling
for the Louisiana doubleheader sweep this weekend!
Ohio
Valley GOTW: The
second of three challengers to #1 Jacksonville
State goes down this weekend, but we think Eastern Illinois at home
will at least be competitive: let’s say, JSU by between 7-22 points!
Blowout:
Like the MVC, look
to one team: Austin Peay loses @ SE
Missouri St this week by at least 14, probably much more.
Of
interest: The
other two top four teams also play, and UT Martin @ Eastern Kentucky should be a pretty competitive game as well!
We like EKU by around 7-10 points.
Southern
Conference GOTW: The
most interesting is certainly Western
Carolina @ Furman – projections are
all over the place, with each team favored by as many as nine depending on who
you ask! We’re taking Furman by nine, but we’ll claim ANY win as a victory
for us!
Blowout:
VMI @ The Citadel could get really ugly. Like, 24-36
points ugly. So could Chattanooga @ Mercer.
Of
interest: East
Tennessee St @ Robert Morris
– Each team needs
a win like California needs water. We like RM by about ten.
Big
South GOTW: It’s
gotta be Charleston Southern @
Kennesaw State! KSU, in its first year of organized football, is
6-2, and actually threatening for the conference title at 2-1. The only team
above it is CSU, after a defeat of defending champ Coastal Carolina last week.
Will they suffer a letdown? Is Kennesaw really
that good? We’re betting “NO”, and taking Charleston by 20 or so. (But we can’t
wait to find out!)
Blowout:
Possibly that
game, but more probably it’ll be Gardner-Webb @ Coastal Carolina, still fuming over the probable loss of the
conference title last week and ready to take it out on GW by 30 or more points.
Of
Interest? All that’s
left is Presbyterian @ Liberty.
Not that interesting.
Pioneer
Football League GOTW:
8-0 Dayton plays at 5-3
Morehead St, 4-1 in conference. Expect 9-0, by more than a TD.
Blowout:
Jacksonville
hosts Davidson.
Enough said. (No? Ok. “Pre-season favorite Jacksonville at home against the
#253 ranked team in the 23 league, 253-team Division 1 NCAA football leagues.”
30+ margin.)
Of
interest? Always
curious to see Davidson’s “competitors” for the bottom of the pit: Valparaiso
@ Butler and Stetson @ Marist; expecting 14+ point defeats
for each.
Ivy
League GOTW is still last week’s Dartmouth @ Harvard thriller! Dartmouth led 13-0, having taken
every punch Big Red could throw for 3 ½ quarters and stopping them every time!
Finally, Harvard scored with six minutes to go, and again inside the last
minute on 4th and 12 from 37 yards out to win by a point. Both teams
deserved every accolade they got.
Blowouts:
So this week, we
get Cornell @ Dartmouth
(Green by 35 or more) and Harvard @
Columbia (traditionally this would be 70-0, but Columbia’s actually getting
better this year! How about 21-34 points for a margin this time? How
about “less than Dartmouth/Cornell” as a bet?)
Of
Interest? The
other two games should be closer – Brown @ Yale (Elis by 3-10) and Princeton @ Penn (we flipped a
coin, and it came down Penn…)
Patriot
League GOTW: Again,
last week’s Colgate 31, Fordham 29 game
of the year! The Rams scored the last three touchdowns, all in the fourth
quarter, only to have their two point conversion attempt from the one fail with
no time left on the clock! There goes the perfect season, there goes
controlling their destiny for the conference title…and there goes Bucknell’s
chances this weekend at Fordham
- Rams by 14+.
Blowout:
Colgate
@ Lafayette by 14+
as well.
Of
interest: That Holy
Cross @ Lehigh game could be very
good Saturday! Our numbers like
Lehigh, most others like HC, and let’s find out who’s right!
SWAC
GOTW: Sounds like
a military acronym, doesn’t it? Nothing spectacular stands out in this
low-level league, but Alabama St @ Jackson
St should be the closest of the five.
Blowout:
The worst should be Texas Southern @ Grambling St – by three TDs, at
least.
Of
interest, would be
everything else, I guess: Prairie View
A&M over Alcorn St by at least 13; Southern over Arkansas-Pine Bluff by at least 14; and
Alabama A&M at home
over Mississippi Valley St by at least 20.
MEAC
GOTW: This one’s
good – North Carolina A&T @ South
Carolina St by a field goal or more to stay unbeaten in conference and
knock SCS from the list of challengers.
Blowouts: Stony Brook (of the Colonial) hosts Howard and wins
big Saturday.
Of
interest: Well,
winners should include Hampton (over
FLA A&M), Bethune-Cookman (over
Morgan St), and NC Central (over
Delaware St). But as always, we’ll be paying close attention to our beloved Savannah
State, playing and losing at Norfolk St
by about 17-31 this weekend.
ON TO THE NFL!
We here at Following Football are on a roll when it comes to picking
favorites to win and cover. And again this week, we’re vastly
overconfident about our win and cover picks, and meekly concerned about our
choices of the underdog. So…see what you think:
Cincinnati
by more than 10.5 over
Cleveland tonight.
Green
Bay by more than 2.5 over
Carolina.
Jets
by more than 7 over
the Jaguars.
Buffalo
by more than 3 over
Miami.
Steelers
by more than 4.5 over
the Raiders.
Vikings
by more than 2.5 over
the Rams.
(And it will be the first of the
morning set of games to finish!)
New
Orleans by more than 8
over Tennessee.
New
England by more than 14
over Washington. (And keep betting NE
until they lose.)
Denver
by more than 3
over Indianapolis. MUCH more. Who’s idea IS this line, anyway?
And,
now, we’re taking three home underdogs. Without confidence…
Sad
Francisco covers 6
against Atlanta…Half-buck-an-ears cover
2.5 against the Giants…and Dallas
somehow defeats Philadelphia, who’s favored by 2.
But
on Monday night, we’re HAPPY again…
Chargers
by more than 3.5 over
Da Bears!
Finally in the CFL!...
It’s Week 20 of the twenty-week
regular season up north, and the four games on the schedule have the gamut of
meaning imbued in them. From least to most important, here we go!...
Saskatchewan
@ Montreal – neither team is even making the playoffs;
two of just three clubs left out in November. So, it’s mostly to make next
season’s roster for the players. But I see the Rough Riders as having more
pride to play for, to get a third win on the record, while Montreal’s still
bummed from losing out just last Sunday. Saskatchewan 21, Montreal 20.
Winnipeg
@ Toronto – Winnipeg’s the third club out; Toronto’s
locked into the third spot in the east, travelling to a destination TBA for a
game Saturday. They’re not going to risk any players and won’t want anyone
overly exhausted, either – Winnipeg 20,
Toronto 16.
Calgary
@ British Columbia
– A strange game in that they’re going to
play AGAIN next weekend in the first round of the Western division playoffs
(the winner to go to Edmonton, who’ll have rested for 21 days by then! THAT
will be interesting!). Neither team will show the other one ANYTHING, and it’ll
be the Vancouver fan base, seeing its Lions for the last time this season, who
will want to will them over the line. BC Lions 14, Calgary 9.
Hamilton
@ Ottawa – THIS is the biggie, the second of a
two-game, aggregate point playoff for the division title in the East. (See this
really cool article – that used to be a regular thing in the CFL! This just happened by
happenstance.) Ottawa won by six last week in Hamilton, and while everyone
seems to think that with a third string QB, the Ti-Cats have no chance… We’re
betting our money on the team that’s been there before. Hamilton 20, Ottawa 13.
