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Thursday, August 20th, 2015 (reposted from main page)
Here are the combined rankings from six leading prognosticators, including scouting combines, media sources, and casino oddsmakers, on a 4-3-2-1 vote from top to bottom:
A perfect score would be 24 (six groups score a team as most likely to win the division). FOUR teams are considered locks to win their NFL divisions...
AFC East: New England
AFC South: Indianapolis
NFC North: Green Bay
NFC West: Seattle
Not coincidentally, those are the four teams considered most likely to win the Super Bowl this year! Green Bay was chosen as Super Bowl 50 champion in four of the six surveys; Indy and Seattle won one each.
The other division winners are projected as follows:
AFC West: Denver (5 of 6 chose the Broncos)
AFC North: Baltimore (4 of 6 chose the Ravens)
NFC East: Dallas (3 out of 6 chose the Cowboys, with one tie)
NFC South: Carolina (3 out of 6 chose the Panthers, with one tie).
Overall, adding up the general perceptions of these six organizations, we get something like this:
AFC playoff teams NFC playoff teams
1. Indianapolis (#3 overall) 1. Green Bay (#1 overall)
2. New England (#4 overall) 2. Seattle (#2 overall)
[So, the consensus is a new match-up in the Super Bowl this year!]
3. Denver (#5 overall) 3. Dallas (#6 overall)
4. Baltimore (#8 overall) 4. Carolina (#14 overall)
5. Pittsburgh (#9 overall) 5. Philadelphia (#7 overall)
6. Cincinnati (#11 overall) 6. Arizona (#10 overall)
[Not many new teams...and close races in the AFC North and NFC East again!...]
Below those teams...
7. Miami (#12 overall) 7. New Orleans (#17 overall)
[AND the NFC South again, though they maybe not so lousy...and Miami missed by ONE vote!]
8. Kansas City (#13 overall) 8. Minnesota (#18 overall)
9. Buffalo (#15 overall) 9. New Jersey Giants (#19 overall)
10. San Diego (#16 overall) 10. Detroit (#21 overall)
11. Houston (#20 overall) 11. Atlanta (#22 overall)
12. New Jersey Jets (#25 overall) 12. St. Louis (#23 overall)
13. Jacksonville (#28 overall) 13. San Francisco (#24 overall)
14. Cleveland (#30 overall) 14. Chicago (#26 overall)
15. Oakland (#31 overall) 15. Washington (#27 overall)
16. Tennessee (#32 overall) 16. Tampa Bay (#29 overall)
Our
meta-analysis is that these folks aren't taking the
last-becomes-first-overnight nature of the NFL into account enough...but
then, how do you predict unpredictability, anyway?
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