UPS AND DOWNS - flip flopping the schedule!

We'll go through the Weekend Wesults either later today or tomorrow, but so much else is happening that we really want to get this piece out today... because there are a TON of folks who are UP and even more who are DOWN all of a sudden...

UP - a belated UP-UP-UP to the THREE-PEAT champions of the Australian Football League, the HAWTHORN HAWKS! Coming into a Grand Final against a team that had spanked them by 31 points three weeks ago, coming in with an older roster that had to cross the country four times in three weeks while West Coast sat at home and won a pair of games before travelling to Melbourne to play in the fabled MCG, "the home of footy"...and once there, play like they were in awe of the situation, while the Hawks were in "been there, won that" mode, demolishing the Eagles in a game not unlike last year's demolition of the also high-flying Sydney Swans - a brief, half-period of hope, followed by one-and-a-half quarters of the most devastating footy you'll ever see, leaving the second half to basically be a procession to the throne for Hawthorn, unquestionably the outstanding franchise of the 21st century at this point. What's more, it was no fluke - imagining another team to outplay them next year is difficult, and probably a measure of self-destruction will be necessary for other clubs to fancy themselves as "flag favorites" at any point in 2016.

DOWN-DOWN-DOWN-DOWN to the coaches already jettisoned in the FBS, barely halfway through the season - Randy Edsell at Maryland, for whom the bell tolled last year but who survived to coach another season, only to start out 2-4 with routs from West Virginia, Ohio St and Michigan on his record. The three-TD loss to Bowling Green of the MAC was the worst of the lot, but as always, there's more to the story...With Steve Sarkisian of USC, the struggle is straightforward: alcohol abuse, combined with life stresses, pushed him well over the edge of professional behavior after a drunken appearance at a major booster event, another reported one at the Arizona St game, and the worst this Sunday when he arrived for practice completely plowed. He was immediately put on leave, and today was relieved of his duties by AD Pat Haden. His situation is different than Edsell's, especially if you believe that alcoholism is a disease, rather than purely a choice on a person's part. While the university personnel are saying all the right things - we support him in his quest to get healthy - and well they should, as we all should, it's hard for me not to look at these circumstances for a professional and say, Isn't there a line you realize you shouldn't cross long before you reach this point? Of course, he's not the first coach for whom addictions played a role in losing his "dream job" - some for their own abuses, some for abetting those of players; some for alcohol, some for drugs, some for violence, and some for sex. But somehow, somehow, there's got to be more than just sympathy for a coach who has the self-discipline to succeed in a profession that demands self-discipline more than almost any other, and yet can't find the self-discipline to curb his own addiction issues, or get help for them before they destroy him. There's got to be something more akin to responsibility for his actions, beyond the firing. Sarkisian's issues have destroyed his life - but probably only temporarily. He'll get another coaching job, and like Jim Tressel, Kelvin Sampson, and other previous disgracees, he'll resume his career. But the players, university personnel, boosters, and fans of USC football won't forget...Just added in the last few hours, two more coaches with reason to feel down - North Texas (former) head coach Dan McCarney, who was handed his pink slip today after UNT (already the creators of tier "V" in the FBS division this year for their ineptitude) not only lost as we predicted to FBS Big Sky Portland State (at home, on Homecoming of all days), but lost by the Baylor-esque score of 66-7 (actually, that's exactly the score Baylor had against Kansas Saturday. But that was BAYLOR, not a tier O, 3-2 FCS team!). It was the largest loss by an FBS (or "1-A") school to an FCS (or "1-AA") school in history. So, let's see, at least North Texas gets a break now to work a new coach in...what? They play Western Kentucky? The conference favorite? On THURSDAY? Great timing, UNT....AND last because the headliner always goes last, the Head Ball Coach himself, Steve Spurrier, retired from coaching today as South Carolina sits at 0-4 in the SEC East, 57th ranked in the country, tier J on the Following Football charts, and idiots calling for the head of the master when they aren't worthy to carry his jock strap. I feel on this one like I do on Adam Goodes being humiliated by Australian "fans" - yes, he should retire at the end of the year, and yes, if he had been an ass about it you could argue for removal then. But he single handedly made the SEC the most relevant conference in the country - he deserves a better send-off than this. I'm no Spurrier fan, but he had more football knowledge in his ball cap than I've had my entire existence.

(And by the way, one further DOWN to those idiots in Australia I just mentioned, for preventing Goodes from participating in ANY of the retired star activities that his fellow (and all lesser) stars got to do this fall (spring there) because he didn't want any booing to distract from the celebration for the others. A hero to the last, Mr. Goodes. You deserved so much better than this.)

DOWN also to poor Joe Philbin, formerly of the Miami Dolphins, who was never going to keep his job there after the issues that took place under his watch, which from our standpoint didn't seem to be his fault. But you've got to have a fall guy, and we'll guarantee 1-3 one fourth of the way through an NFL season is hardly reason to fire your coach - especially when you weren't figuring to set the world on fire to begin with. But as so often happens, when the boss wants to make a change, and the GM has the wrong players on the roster, the only one you can get rid of quickly is the coach. Good luck, Miami - here's betting the next twelve games are no better.

Prophecies In Phootball for the second week in October!

Here are our projections, our predictions, our prognostications, our

Prophesies In Phootball

…for the second week of October, 2015!

In the Canadian Football League this week, there was a game on Tuesday to make the schedule (and specifically the byes in the nine-team league!) work out. Officially, Toronto had a bye last week and two games this week, but the first game this week was on Tuesday (they beat Ottawa 38-35, who themselves played twice in five days!) and the second will be on Monday the 12^th. Strange… Of course, they did this to themselves by adding a single team last year, returning their capital city Ottawa to the fold after twenty years without a team, instead of a pair that could keep a balanced schedule in play. (The AFL did that temporarily four years ago, allowing Gold Coast to start play in 2011 when Greater Western Sydney wouldn’t be starting play until the following year.) In hockey, basketball, and any other sport with more erratic scheduling (not once a week like clockwork), odd team scheduling really isn’t an issue, although generally they also strive for even numbers just for fair divisions and such. But…well, maybe in Canadian counting, nine is an even number…

So, our predictions: Hamilton over Saskatchewan (34-20)…Calgary holds off Edmonton (holding our breath on this one – 30-27)…BC to defeat Winnipeg (in Vancouver, not a stretch: 20-14)…and Montreal catches Toronto on six days rest (28-27, despite the Argos being favored otherwise).

(We’re still floating around the 80^th percentile in the CFL prediction contest, holding to our 35-25 record.)

Regarding the National Football League (“National” meaning “United States”, the most self-centered nation on earth. We invented the selfie, you know…), we have byes not because we have to…we have byes because we want to. That is, we want to stretch the season out longer to get more television money in the hands of the league and its teams. That’s why the Dolphins and Jets played a game in London Sunday morning – so Miami would have plenty of time to fire their coach before their next game.

So, our predictions: Houston (+0.5) upsets Indianapolis Thursday night…on Sunday, Atlanta (-8) covers against Washington…Cincinnati (-3) covers against Seattle…Green Bay (-9.5) covers against the Rams…Philadelphia (-4.5) covers against New Orleans…and Buffalo (-2.5) covers at Tennessee. On the flip side of that coin, Cleveland (+6.5) beats the spread against the Ravens…Chicago (+9.5) stays close to the Chiefs…and Jacksonville (+2.5) at least covers against Tampa. In the late games Sunday, Arizona (-3), New England (-9.5), Denver (-5.5), and the Giants (-7) all win by more than those spreads against Detroit, Dallas, Oakland, and San Francisco, respectively. Finally, on Monday night, Pittsburgh (+3) upsets San Diego.

(In our ESPN NFL pool, we’re in the 82^nd percentile on picking winners, and the 98^th against the spread.)

Finally, here’s our huge bundle of college football picks for the weekend! – Here are the FBS teams that we think will win by more than the Vegas betting spread…

Boston College (-7.5) over Wake Forest…Clemson (-7) over Georgia Tech…Florida St (-9.5) over Miami-FL…NC State (-0.5) over Virginia Tech Friday…Duke (-12) over Army…Pitt (-10.5) over Virginia…Michigan St (-14.5) over Rutgers…Iowa (-11) over Illinois…Minnesota (-3) over Purdue…Baylor (-44) over Kansas (yes, even with that spread!)…Texas Tech (-12.5) over Iowa St…Oklahoma (-17) over Texas…West Virginia (-7) over OK St…BYU (-7.5) over East Carolina…Utah (-7) over Cal (as much as we wanted to bet on a Ute letdown, seven points is too low)…Oregon (-17) over Washington St (would’ve taken double that – the Ducks’ll be MAD!)…Arizona (-8.5) over Oregon St… USC (-17) over Washington Thursday…Georgia (-3) over Tennessee…LSU (-13) over poor ol’ HBC and South Carolina…Alabama (-21) over Arkansas, now that they’ve got their mojo working now…Mississippi St (-33) over Troy…Temple (-16) over Tulane…Houston (-25.5) over SMU Thursday…Marshall (-5) over Southern Miss Friday…Western KY (-8.5) over MTSU…Louisiana Tech (-17) over UTSA…Akron (-7.5) over Eastern Michigan…Toledo (-15) over Kent State…Ohio (-15.5) over Miami-OH…Bowling Green (-13) over U Mass…Northern Illinois (-10.5) over Ball State…Air Force (-24) over Wyoming…Boise St (-16) over Colorado St…Nevada (-5) over New Mexico…Utah St (-12) over Fresno St…Appalachian St (-16) over Georgia St… and UL-Lafayette (-3.5) over Texas State.

And here are the FBS underdogs who we believe will at least beat the spread and (in some cases) win outright:

Syracuse (+3) will upset South Florida…Indiana (+8) against Penn State…Maryland (+33.5) against Ohio State…Northwestern (+7.5) against Michigan…Wisconsin (+1.5) will upset Nebraska… Kansas State (+9.5) against TCU…Navy (+14) against Notre Dame…Missouri (+5.5) against Florida…New Mexico State (+43) against Ole Miss… U Conn (+2.5) will upset UCF…UL-Monroe (-9.5) against Tulsa…Rice (+4) will upset Florida Atlantic…UTEP (-14.5) against Florida International…Central Michigan (+7.5) against Western Michigan…San Diego St (+1.5) will upset Hawai’i…and UNLV (+2.5) against San Jose St.

Finally, here are the predicted results for the FCS games coming up this weekend:

Missouri Valley Conference: Youngstown St by 3 over Indiana St; South Dakota St by 10 over Indiana St; Southern Illinois by 21 over Missouri St; North Dakota St by 7 over Northern Iowa; Western Illinois by 7 over South Dakota.

Big Sky Conference: Eastern Washington by 7 over Cal Poly; North Dakota by 8 over Idaho St; Montana by 21 over Weber St; Montana St by 20 over Sacramento St; Northern Arizona by 11 over UC Davis; and Portland St by three over FBS North Texas.

Colonial AA: Albany by 6 over Maine; Delaware by 16 over Rhode Island; Elon by 1 over Richmond; James Madison over Towson; William & Mary by 2 over Villanova. Some close games expected in the Colonial, as always!

Southland: Lamar over Abilene by 14; Central Arkansas by 24 over Houston Baptist; Sam Houston St by 30 over Incarnate Word; McNeese St by 4 over SE Louisiana; Stephen F Austin by 20 over Nicholls St.

 

Big South: Charleston Southern by 13 over Monmouth; Coastal Carolina by 31 over Presbyterian; and Liberty by 19 over Gardner-Webb. Not expecting any upsets this weekend…

Southern Conference: Chattanooga by 14 over Furman; Western Carolina by 3 over Mercer; Samford by 14 over VMI; Wofford by 3 over The Citadel.

North East Conference: Bryant by 14 over CCSU; Sacred Heart by 2 over Robert Morris; and Wagner (out of conference) over Columbia by 3.

Ohio Valley Conference: Murray St by 13 over Austin Peay; Eastern Illinois by 4 over SE Missouri St; Eastern Kentucky by 17 over Tennessee Tech; and UT-Martin by 7 over Tennessee St.

Pioneer Football League: Morehead St by 1 over Butler; Campbell by 3 over Marist; Dayton by San Diego; Drake by 14 over Valparaiso; and Jacksonville by 30 over Stetson. (This may not be a very strong conference, but it’s competitive!)

In the “Intramural” conferences (Ivy and Patriot Leagues):

Holy Cross by 3 over Brown; Harvard by 31 over Cornell; Dartmouth in overtime over Yale; Fordham by 13 over Penn; Princeton by 6 over Colgate; Bucknell by 5 over Lehigh; Lafayette by 2 over Georgetown; and as mentioned before, Wagner over Columbia by 3.

In the “HBC” conferences (SWAC and MEAC):

Bethune-Cookman by 3 over South Carolina St; Hampton by 10 over Delaware St; NC Central by 14 over Florida A&M; Morgan St by 17 over Savannah St; NC A&T by 7 over Norfolk St; Southern by 6 over Alabama St; Grambling St by 15 over Alabama A&M; and Prairie View A&M by 12 over Mississippi Valley St. 

(And in our ESPN College Pigskin Pick’m pool, we’re down around 72% - still in the top 30%! - after a poor week last week, as we admitted on Monday.)

Now...about the NFL trade period...wow!

We don't even know where to start. 

St. Louis and the Philadelphia Kellys trading starting quarterbacks?

New Orleans having a fire sale?

San Francisco losing all these great players (and coaches!) and then picking up a ton of new ones as well?

The entire AFC East getting TONS better? Especially Buffalo - that's my new co-favorite (because until New England falls, I'm not betting against them...).

Seattle getting Jimmy Graham? Dallas losing DeMarco Murray? Miami signing Ndamukong Suh? (I spelled that without looking it up! Proud of me!)

And what will the Eagles look like when Chip gets done?

I think the best advice I've heard, and many wise pundits have repeated it many times, is this: It's only March 16, people. There's plenty of time - there are many more dominoes to fall - the draft is still coming. 

When the dust settles and summer arrives...then we can make our evaluations.

(But it's going to be fun to see what those teams we've named in particular look like then!)

Here is the latest update from Rotoworld and NBC Sports as to where each of the free agents in the NFL has signed ...

NFL ROUND-UP!

In the league that never sleeps, there's been lots of shuffling since we last looked in at the National Football League. Let's take a peek:

*Will the last one out of San Francisco's locker room please turn out the lights? Holy catfish, has that team become a mess all of a sudden!

*Philadelphia is definitely charting its own course - getting rid of DeSean and LeSean, two very talented players who DON'T fit the "Chip Kelly way", apparently. And while Stephen A Smith is known for saying ridiculous and outrageous things, and is being taken to task for his latest...I'm not so sure he's wrong. Those guys don't fit the way you do things, Mr. Kelly...but Riley Cooper does? Weird.

*Jeff Legwold has a great roundup of the major transactions and signings on ESPN today, including the departure of the Stupendous Stomper himself, Ndamukong Suh, to the Miami Dolphins for a contract said to be worth $114 million - only the fifth non-QB ever given a nine-figure contract. Notably (in my opinion), one of those other four was also a defensive lineman with an anger management problem, Albert Haynesworth, who was definitively not worth the contract. (The others include notables like JJ Watt, who so far is worth every penny.)

*Here's a notable non-trade: Jay Cutler is your 2015 Chicago Bears quarterback! Now...to make it work...

*While this is actually connected to the subscription part of ESPN ("Insider"), the visible-to-everyone section is a good tracker in itself to help you keep track of where every NFL free agent ends up.

From Jim Steeg, via Peter King, about coach Don Shula

“Back in the seventies, the Dolphins were going to play the Raiders in Oakland. They practiced at the Oakland Coliseum on Saturday, and in the locker room Larry Csonka found laying there the Raiders’ game plan for the next day’s game. He gave it to [Dolphins offensive line coach] Monte Clark to give to Don Shula, which Monte did.

“The next day the Dolphins got beat by the Raiders. Csonka went to Monte and asked, ‘How did we lose? We had their game plan.’

“Monte’s response: ‘I gave it to Don and he threw it in the trash. He said, ‘We do not cheat!' "

Looking through the NFL final standings,...

...there are, as always, some curious records within the records. Here are a few of them...

8-0 at home) Both Green Bay and Denver were not only perfect at home, but 11-0 overall on grass this season (and thus 1-4 on turf!).

8-0 on the road) Strangely, Dallas went just 4-4 in their luxurious digs, but undefeated on the road.

0-8 on the road) Two young teams, Oakland and Jacksonville, managed three wins at home but went winless on the road. Not that weird...

0-8 at home) But the only two wins Tampa Bay got this year were away from home, at Washington (okay) and at Pittsburgh (arguably the biggest upset of the year). Tampa was also the only team to go 0-6 in their division (and in the worst division in football, no less).

The definition of average) Not only did the Miami Dolphins go 8-8, but they were 4-4 at home, 4-4 on the road, 3-3 in the division and 6-6 in the conference (and thus 2-2 against the NFC). Their point differential was just fifteen points to the good, too; San Diego, on the other hand, wound up scoring 348 points and allowing 348 points as well, though they went 9-7.

6-0 in the division) Indianapolis and Denver both went lossless within their division, and won the division with ease. (Had Atlanta held home field today, they would've won the division by going 6-0 in the division and 1-9 everywhere else!)

Overtime champs) Oddly, Minnesota was the only club to win two overtime games this season, going 2-0 (defeating the Jets and Buccaneers).

Carolina "wins" the NFC South) despite scoring 35 fewer points than their opponents, and despite losing every game between Columbus Day (Oct 12) and Pearl Harbor Day (Dec 7). In fact, no team in the division had a winning record at home OR on the road this year.

Looking at the way divisions played each other, the NFC East went 12-4 over the AFC South (and Dallas and Philly both went 4-0); the AFC North managed to go 12-3-1 over the NFC South (with Cincinnati and Baltimore combining to go 7-0-1); and the NFC West went 12-4 against the NFC East (the Rams only went 1-3, though, beating Washington, while the other three teams went 11-1 against their eastern brethren).

Finally, Buffalo may regret its 1-3 record against the AFC West, while the New England Pats went 4-0 against the same teams. The two clubs went 8-4 in all their other games, so those interdivision matchups cost the Bills the division!

Bill Barnwell hits the nail on the head (as usual!)

In his week in review column for Grantland, Bill Barnwell addresses most of the interesting items of the NFL weekend, including the Beckham Jr. catch, of course, but also Mike Smith's terrible coaching in the fourth quarter that allowed Cleveland to come back against his Falcons, T.Y. Hilton's exceptional day (his wife gave birth in the morning before his great game for the Colts), and the "Rabona" onside kick from Miami's Caleb Sturgis - a thing of brilliance...

Pending a Steeler rout tonight, we present our Week 11 NFL rankings!

As with the college teams, we're confident enough about the progressing season to actually rank the NFL teams #1-32...

A1. Arizona Cardinals (9-1) - Hard to deny them being the favorites right now!
A2. New England Patriots (8-2) - They've now beaten all three AFC division leaders.
A3. Green Bay Packers (7-3) - Fifty points twice in a row, destroying the Eagles yesterday.
A4. Denver Broncos (7-3) - Hard for Manning to be effective throwing w/ no one 2 throw 2

B5. Dallas Cowboys (7-3) - IF Romo is healthy AND DeMarco stays healthy...
B6. Philadelphia Eagles (7-3)
B7. Detroit Lions (7-3) - No disrespect in their loss yesterday.
B8. Indianapolis Colts (6-4) - On the other hand: where's the running game?

C9. Kansas City Chiefs (7-3) - Since 0-2 start, they're on a roll...
C10. Cincinnati Bengals (6-3-1) - IF the "good Andy" shows up, they look like this...
C11. Baltimore Ravens (6-4)
C12. Miami Dolphins (6-4) - The pieces are all there: as Tannehill matures, they'll be great.

D13. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4)
D14. Seattle Seahawks (6-4) - Give them time; if they're healthy and clicking in December...
D15. San Francisco 49ers (6-4) - See previous comment...

D16. Cleveland Browns (6-4)
E17. San Diego Chargers (6-4)

E18. Buffalo Bills (5-5)
E19. Houston Texans (5-5) - JJ WATT for PRESIDENT! But if there's only one of him...
E20. New Orleans Saints (4-6) - Yeah, but they're losing at home now...What's next?
F21. St. Louis Rams (4-6) - #21 with a bullet: Jeff Fisher's got them looking good!

F22. Chicago Bears (4-6) - Roll the D20 for Cutler's performance: good, mediocre, or AAH!
F23. New York Giants (4-6)
F24. Atlanta Falcons (4-6) - Of the four NFC South disasters, they have the most potential.
G25. Carolina Panthers (3-7-1)
G26. Minnesota Vikings (4-6) - If they can get even mediocre play from Bridgewater...

G27. Washington Redskins (3-7)
G28. Tennessee Titans (2-7)
H29. New York Jets (2-8)

H30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-8)
H31. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9)
H32. Oakland Raiders (0-10) - For a team on a 16 game losing streak, they're ALWAYS competitive. Anytime there's a spread of more than two TDs, take it: they'll cover. They won't WIN...but they'll cover.