Kenny Stabler, "The Snake", died yesterday from complications from colon cancer. The other article linked here from ESPN includes what little has been made public (completely appropriate, in our opinion: those details are none of our business), but also does a good job encapsulating the affect Stabler and those 1970's Raiders had on football fans of that era, like us here at Following Football.
The Raiders of the '70s were the Bad Boys of football - actually, they shaped the franchise for the next forty years in that image - like the Detroit Pistons of the early '90s, the Miami Heat of a few years ago, the Miami Hurricanes of the 80s. We need those "bad guys", the counter culture going against the grain of the corporate NFL or NCAA or NBA or whomever. You want the image of 32 franchises, working independently, or you want a corporation that doles out 32 subdivisions of itself to artificially compete? You need to have someone who doesn't toe the line - whatever you think of the Belechick Patriots, we need them in the league. Or someone like them, since the Raiders aren't really relevant at the moment.
That's another key - they've got to be good. And the Stabler Raiders were good, alright. They went to several playoffs in a row during his tenure there, including a Super Bowl victory at the end of the 1976 season over the Vikings. His teammates were and are fiercely loyal to their old field general, as the two articles linked show.
On a side note, this little tidbit was tucked away at the end of an article:
Stabler's brain and spinal cord were donated to Boston University's
Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy Center to support research into
degenerative brain disease among athletes, according to the family.
Boston U's Encephalopathy Center has the brains of several dozen football players (all deceased, duh!) and has developed a great wealth of data on the damage football players take playing the game - we never want to tell people what to do with their lives, but we want players to know up front what they're getting into.
Showing posts with label Super Bowl. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Super Bowl. Show all posts
Friday, July 10, 2015
Tuesday, February 17, 2015
How the NFL Super Bowl affects the AFL Grand Final...
Here's an interesting piece of effluvia... The AFL head man, Gillon McLachlan, came to America to watch the Super Bowl in person, and came away with the thought that seeing Katy Perry under the lights is more fun than watching her in the daytime would be.
Currently, the Grand Final is always played in the middle of the afternoon, a daytime game, and it's been that way forever. But with the impetus from the AFL CEO, and the motivation of the newly installed lighting system at the Melbourne Cricket Grounds (the MCG - "the home of footy", where the Grand Final is played every year), the start of a conversation is there now to change the way the Grand Final looks after the current TV contract expires in 2016.
What do YOU think? Should the AFL move their premiere event to prime time? (For us here in Idaho, that puts it at 4 in the morning, instead of 10 at night...no bueno for Americans...) Let us know in the comments!
Currently, the Grand Final is always played in the middle of the afternoon, a daytime game, and it's been that way forever. But with the impetus from the AFL CEO, and the motivation of the newly installed lighting system at the Melbourne Cricket Grounds (the MCG - "the home of footy", where the Grand Final is played every year), the start of a conversation is there now to change the way the Grand Final looks after the current TV contract expires in 2016.
What do YOU think? Should the AFL move their premiere event to prime time? (For us here in Idaho, that puts it at 4 in the morning, instead of 10 at night...no bueno for Americans...) Let us know in the comments!
Saturday, February 7, 2015
A few last thoughts on a SUPER championship game last Sunday..
...before we move on to the Australian Footy season and the off-season, 12-month-per-year business that IS the NFL in the 21st century:
It really was a fantastic game. There were rarely moments when you weren't wondering, what's going to happen next? A defensive struggle in the beginning, but one that New England's "winning", belying the idea that Seattle's defense would shut them down...then a Patriot lead, then a great fifty second drive by Russell Wilson ending with a pass to the end zone with two seconds to go in the half (foreshadowing the end of the game?). Throughout that half, the tension and the skill levels demonstrated, PLUS the storylines that developed (especially the depletion of Seattle's already hurting secondary) that we knew would play important factors in the second half (of a tie game!), made for an incredibly entertaining (and fast!) first half.
Katy Perry (and unnecessary friends) was a win - tight show, hit the high points, spectacular effects, added some fuel to her PR war with Taylor Swift, and made #leftshark a trending thing. The giant lion/tiger/Japanese puppetry thing she rode in on was super cool.
The second half was even better than the first - the back and forth feel, the Seahawks taking the ten point lead, but not in a way that made you think the Patriots were done. And then - touchdown, stop, touchdown, all amazing drives, and all forgotten now because of the last Seattle attempt to score...
Read Bill Simmons' retro-diary in Grantland for the best recounting of that entire sequence, although you have to remember he's a tremendous Patriot homer. But a few things stand out to me, even now - the time out situation, on both sides but especially Seattle's; the second try at the turnaround pass at the goal line by Brady; the timing of the 2-minute warning; the 31-yd out pass to Lynch on a linebacker to start a drive; and of course, the miraculous off-the-thigh catch by Kearse that (had they lost) Belechick would have been seeing in his nightmares (my favorite line of the press conferences: when some reporter asked coach Bill if he'd ever seen a catch like that before, he deadpanned: "Yes. Twice." - referring to the two Giants miracle catches that beat his teams the prior two Super Bowls.)
And yes, I'm still completely convinced that the play call of a slant pass at the goal line was a GOOD call; Malcolm Butler simply made a GREAT play based on GREAT film study and coaching. By the way, Simmons makes a good case, following this article from the Washington Post's Adam Kilgore, that Belechick's LACK of timeout there before that play was smart, too. I'm not as convinced of this one, but I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.
In the end, here's one of my major takeaways from a close Super Bowl like that: if one or two plays go differently, legacies are changed. If Seattle scores that TD, Brady and Belechick still haven't won since 2004, and they're merely a good champion whose time passed....Seattle is a two-time champion who beat Manning and Brady back to back, and becomes a legendary defense....and neither of those things had anything to do with the people on the field at the pivotal play of the game! Regardless of the outcome, these were (and are) two incredible teams, and deserve that kind of recognition. Play the game again this week, maybe Seattle wins, maybe New England blows them out - but it's not important. Praise and treasure them for what they are!
It really was a fantastic game. There were rarely moments when you weren't wondering, what's going to happen next? A defensive struggle in the beginning, but one that New England's "winning", belying the idea that Seattle's defense would shut them down...then a Patriot lead, then a great fifty second drive by Russell Wilson ending with a pass to the end zone with two seconds to go in the half (foreshadowing the end of the game?). Throughout that half, the tension and the skill levels demonstrated, PLUS the storylines that developed (especially the depletion of Seattle's already hurting secondary) that we knew would play important factors in the second half (of a tie game!), made for an incredibly entertaining (and fast!) first half.
Katy Perry (and unnecessary friends) was a win - tight show, hit the high points, spectacular effects, added some fuel to her PR war with Taylor Swift, and made #leftshark a trending thing. The giant lion/tiger/Japanese puppetry thing she rode in on was super cool.
The second half was even better than the first - the back and forth feel, the Seahawks taking the ten point lead, but not in a way that made you think the Patriots were done. And then - touchdown, stop, touchdown, all amazing drives, and all forgotten now because of the last Seattle attempt to score...
Read Bill Simmons' retro-diary in Grantland for the best recounting of that entire sequence, although you have to remember he's a tremendous Patriot homer. But a few things stand out to me, even now - the time out situation, on both sides but especially Seattle's; the second try at the turnaround pass at the goal line by Brady; the timing of the 2-minute warning; the 31-yd out pass to Lynch on a linebacker to start a drive; and of course, the miraculous off-the-thigh catch by Kearse that (had they lost) Belechick would have been seeing in his nightmares (my favorite line of the press conferences: when some reporter asked coach Bill if he'd ever seen a catch like that before, he deadpanned: "Yes. Twice." - referring to the two Giants miracle catches that beat his teams the prior two Super Bowls.)
And yes, I'm still completely convinced that the play call of a slant pass at the goal line was a GOOD call; Malcolm Butler simply made a GREAT play based on GREAT film study and coaching. By the way, Simmons makes a good case, following this article from the Washington Post's Adam Kilgore, that Belechick's LACK of timeout there before that play was smart, too. I'm not as convinced of this one, but I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.
In the end, here's one of my major takeaways from a close Super Bowl like that: if one or two plays go differently, legacies are changed. If Seattle scores that TD, Brady and Belechick still haven't won since 2004, and they're merely a good champion whose time passed....Seattle is a two-time champion who beat Manning and Brady back to back, and becomes a legendary defense....and neither of those things had anything to do with the people on the field at the pivotal play of the game! Regardless of the outcome, these were (and are) two incredible teams, and deserve that kind of recognition. Play the game again this week, maybe Seattle wins, maybe New England blows them out - but it's not important. Praise and treasure them for what they are!
Monday, February 2, 2015
More smart people who agree with me...
Here's the analysis from Five Thirty Eight, the statistical geek arm of ESPN, that backs up my belief that Pete Carroll's play call was completely reasonable at the end of the game...
Mike Sando had the perfect stat for the situation in my opinion, explaining why Carroll's choice wasn't that risky:
And, if Wilson didn't have an open receiver in that scenario - do you really think he was going to get sacked? When all he had to do was chuck it into the stands? Or run around (which, I'm told, he's pretty good at...)?
And by the way - what about that Jermaine Kearse acrobatic catch that led to the game-ending situation? If you didn't think of David Tyree in that situation, you don't empathize with Patriot fans...
Talk about a dramatic turnaround!
Bill Barnwell's other takeaway from that play was the massive turnaround in fortunes it provided - here's the link to his article again, but the essential part is as follows:
An Epic Swing
In terms of one play swinging a team’s chances of winning the Super Bowl, the second-down interception was probably the most important in the history of the NFL. Burke’s Advanced Football Analytics model suggested after the game that the Patriots’ chances of winning jumped from 12 percent before the interception to 99 percent afterward, for a swing of 87 percentage points. It’s difficult for one play in any context to shift things that dramatically.
The Mike Jones tackle of Kevin Dyson at the 1-yard line in Super Bowl XXXIV came to mind, but that was a 23-16 game; even if Dyson had gotten in, Tennessee’s chances of winning would have risen only to about 50 percent, since the two teams would have gone to overtime (or Tennessee would have attempted a two-pointer, which would also have put its chances of winning near 50 percent). The most meaningful play before this one was probably Scott Norwood’s missed 47-yard field goal in a 20-19 game at the end of Super Bowl XXV, but there’s no way he had an 87 percent chance of making the game-winning field goal to begin with, so even reducing Buffalo’s chances to zero wouldn’t match Wilson’s interception.
Watching the emotions on the faces of the sideline people in particular was amazing - especially Tom Brady, for whom the game had a redemptive quality beyond that of "normal" players. It's what makes football such a joy to watch - other sports don't do that. Much more rarely do you see a turnaround like that in basketball (game 6 of the first Miami/SanAntonio finals comes to mind), baseball (Bill Buckner comes to mind), or hockey (nothing comes to mind...), let alone soccer. The ratio of points to number of scores is what causes it - a seven point/one score turnaround made this game go from 12% to 99%. Also, plays are distinctive events in football, not so much in soccer or hockey, or even in basketball on most occasions. We'll re-run certain plays in our mind (and on video) over and over again.
Upon further review, I disagree with the world.
Ian O'Connor's piece this morning in ESPN sums up the consensus opinion of the sports world on the play call heard 'round the world, that Pete Carroll had the intelligence of a vegetable to call a pass play on the one yard line with thirty seconds to go in the Super Bowl when he had Beast Mode Marshawn Lynch available in the backfield. However, I argue that it was a perfectly acceptable call, and had it worked (or even just fallen incomplete) even a brilliant call under the circumstances. Bill Barnwell articulates this position in Grantland this morning, and as usual does so in more and clearer detail than I could:
Breaking Down “The Decision”
You can understand why Carroll might be afraid of getting burned in what seemed like a hopeless situation for the opposition, because you only have to go back to Seattle’s last playoff loss to remember how quickly things can swing. That was during the 2012 playoffs, when the Seahawks came back from a 27-7 deficit in the fourth quarter to take a 28-27 lead with 34 seconds to go. In that game, the Seahawks handed the ball to Lynch on first-and-goal from the 2-yard line, and he immediately scored.
Despite the stunning comeback, Atlanta got the ball back with two timeouts, completed a pair of passes, and got a 49-yard field goal from Matt Bryant to win the game. The Packers, furthermore, responded to another huge Seattle comeback by taking over with 1:19 left and driving for a game-tying field goal in the NFC Championship Game. I’m not arguing that Carroll and offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell should have been so time-conscious as to basically waste second down on a pass play. But I can understand why they would be overly sensitive about leaving too much time on the clock.
If you’re thinking about the game coming down to those three plays, you can also piece together a case that second down is the best time to throw the ball. As Wilson took that fateful second-down snap, there were 26 seconds left and Seattle had one timeout. Let’s pretend for a moment that the Seahawks decide to run the ball on second down. If they don’t get it, they have to call timeout, probably with about 22 seconds left. That means they’re stuck passing on third down with virtually no chance of running the ball, because it would be too difficult to line up after a failed run.
On the other hand, by throwing on second down, you could get two cracks at running the football while providing some semblance of doubt for the Patriots. If Wilson’s pass on second down is incomplete (and he avoids a sack, which seems likely given his ability to scramble), the clock stops with something like 20 seconds to go. That means you can run the ball on third down, use your final timeout, and then run the ball again on fourth down. All three plays come with the possibility of either throwing or running, which prevents the Patriots from selling out against one particular type of play.
You might argue that the logic there doesn’t include the danger of throwing the football and the downside of an interception, and that’s true, but there are negative possibilities in every play call. In fact, this season it was more dangerous to run the football from the 1-yard line than it was to throw it. Before Sunday, NFL teams had thrown the ball 108 times on the opposing team’s 1-yard line this season. Those passes had produced 66 touchdowns (a success rate of 61.1 percent, down to 59.5 percent when you throw in three sacks) and zero interceptions. The 223 running plays had generated 129 touchdowns (a 57.8 percent success rate) and two turnovers on fumbles.
Carroll claimed after the game that the Patriots were in their goal-line package and that the Seahawks, who came out with three wide receivers, were right to throw the ball and basically waste a play against a mismatch of personnel. I’m not sure I see that, and Belichick confirmed as much after the game. The Patriots did line up with a combination of eight defensive linemen and linebackers in the box, seven of whom were on the line of scrimmage at the snap, but they also played three cornerbacks — Malcolm Butler, Darrelle Revis, and Brandon Browner — against Seattle’s three wideouts.
Rookie cornerback Butler did a great job of breaking on the slant for what will surely be the biggest interception of his life. As you can see from Sheil Kapadia’s tweet below, Butler had a lot of work to do to break up the pass once the ball was in the air, let alone actually make the interception:
The thing about the INT is Seattle got what it wanted with play-call. Unbelievable break on the ball by Butler.
The space you see in the screenshot makes Ricardo Lockette seem more open than he actually is — Butler has already identified on the route and he’s going to drive on the football — but it’s not as if Wilson made a dangerous throw into traffic. If the Seahawks really wanted to waste a play, as Carroll was suggesting, Wilson could have thrown this into the ground or thrown it through the back of the end zone. He didn’t because they got the exact look they were hoping for.
In terms of execution, I’d assign more blame to Lockette, who got beaten to the spot and knocked to the ground by Butler, a player Lockette outweighs by 20 pounds. As galvanizing as it’s been over the past 12 months for the Seattle wide receivers to contrast their no-name status with their success, this was a game when the team’s need to upgrade at receiver was clear.
So, that's where I think Carroll was justified in his play calling. Barnwell goes on to argue, however, that given the porous Patriot run defense and Lynch's unstoppability at the time, it was still a "subpar decision". I'm not so sure I agree.
Sunday, February 1, 2015
SUPER BOWL XLIX LIVE BLOG!
9:10 pm: THANKS FOR PLAYING ALONG, BOYS AND GIRLS! And remember, there's only four weeks to go until pre-season Australian Football begins! G'night!
8:20 pm: REPOSTING (the last one vanished into the ether!): to recap, Seattle gets down to a first and goal with a riDONKulous catch where Kearse has the ball knocked away, but it bounces off his thigh as he lies on the ground and he catches it. Marshawn Lynch runs it down to the one, thirty seconds left. Then, Carroll calls a slant pass pick play that rookie free agent DB Malcomb Butler reads and intercepts, landing back on the one, game over...except it isn't quite, because Brady can't quite just fall on it. However, superstud DE Michael Bennett jumps offsides...putting it on the six, eliminating the tension, and releasing the tension from the Seattle defense, who start a fight and mar the ending just a bit.
8:04 pm: And, Michael Bennett, are YOU kidding me? Offsides, in THAT situation? No wonder Irvin started throwing punches - if I was a Seattle player I'd be pissed, too.
8:02 pm: ARE YOU KIDDING?!?!
8:00 pm: Are you kidding me?
7:55 pm: Two minute warning. Seattle ball, midfield, down four. Just the way Russell Wilson probably dreamed about as a kid...and Brady's probably half-hoping they score so he can play out the same scenario..,
7:45 pm: Under three minutes to go - so if the Patriots score a TD from within the five here, the Seahawks will have three TO and plenty of time to go...but they'll be down four, and have to score a TD. Isn't this fun?
7:35 pm: Well, we were hoping for a close Super Bowl - and we got one. 24-21, Seahawks, but the Pats have the ball with about seven to go...
7:17 pm: No team has ever come back from a 3Q deficit of more than seven points, and the leading team is 38-9 (presumably there was one tie).
7:15 pm:
7:13 pm: Well, my son is happy. The NFL just showed the My Little Pony crew cheering for football...
Fourth quarter about to begin...
7:05 pm: Too late to go back on it now, but I did sort of renege on my Seattle pick at the beginning of this blog when I saw the hobbled Seattle secondary. What I failed to reckon with was (a) Tom Brady's inability to take advantage of that fact, partly because (b) Michael Bennett is a man among boys on the front line, rushing right through the NE line and getting pressure on Brady almost every time he goes back to pass. Meanwhile, they can't lay a finger on Russell Wilson, and he's up to 8/11, with one miss in the last nine passes.
6:55 pm:
Charean Williams
6:50 pm: Good move by Bill Belechick to move Browner onto the brand new uber-receiver Chris Matthews for Seattle - they're the same height, and he's got a much better shot at defending him than the shorter 4th cornerback who covered him in the first half. (And Matthews is SO novice that I've misspelled his name until now! These catches are his first in the NFL! He was the CFL rookie of the year, played two years up there.)
6:40 pm: Now, Seattle gets the ball first, marches downfield, kicks a FG and takes its first lead of Super Bowl 49. And Chris Matthews is becoming a Super Bowl legend....
6:20 pm: Gotta admit - Katy Perry's halftime show is spectacular...
6:00 pm: Here's the first decision that Football Analytics will talk about next week, and it pays off for Pete Carroll and Seattle - six seconds to go in the half, on the ten yard line. Almost every other coach kicks the FG; Carroll trusts his 25 year old QB not to blow the clock situation, and he doesn't: back shoulder throw in the FRONT left corner of the end zone to a tall receiver - touchdown, tie game at halftime, when any other team would have settled for being down 14-10.
5:50 pm: Again, Collinsworth nails it. Belechick knows the Seattle secondary is wounded. So he's got four wide just about all the time on offense, and the mismatches are starting to show up. Touchdown, Gronkowski. 14-7, New England Patriots. Chris points out that, amazingly, the Seattle interception by Lane may decide the game in New England's favor because his injury crippled the Seahawks and their secondary.
5:43 pm:
5:35 pm: Touchdown, Beastmode. Tie game, 7-7, after a long pass connection by Wilson (finally). We got a game.
5:30 pm:
5:05 pm: First quarter plus gone, zero-zero score. At this pace, it will be a zero-zero tie. (I did that math in my head.)
4:57 pm: talk about good news / bad news! For the Pats, an eight minute drive that ends in a frankly stupid throw from Brady, and for the Hawks, an interception for Jeremy Lane that ends in what looks like a game ending injury.
4:48 pm: Firstventure into foreign territory goes to New England - seven minutes in. So far, Pats look better than Hawks.
4:40 pm: And, it seems we have our first officials controversy of the game - according to announcer Chris Collinsworth, the running into the punter penalty SHOULD have been roughing by rule. Fortunately, it didn't matter as Seattle went three and out and punted it right back....
4:20 pm: Apparently, we're in Seattle...or at least, the crowd sounds like we're in Seattle. Is that a Seattle thing, or an anti-Patriot thing?
4:00 pm: What are YOU partying with?
3:50 pm: Here we are based in Idaho, smack dab in Seattle country (if Denver's not in the game!)...but it's looking harder and harder to stick with our Seattle prediction, watching the secondary players warm up. The key's going to be Russell Wilson now - if the Patriots are going to be able to score on the Seahawk defense (and Tom Brady's going to find the weaknesses in an injured secondary), then Wilson's going to have to manufacture points against New England; end of story. If he's going well (and isn't concussed for 55 minutes, like he was against Green Bay!), he can do it. If not, he can't, and New England wins.
3:38 pm: I'm tempted to change our prediction. Kam Chancellor, the key to the Seattle "Legion of Boom!" secondary, is NOT moving well in a pretty bulky knee brace that's really going to inhibit his ability to cover any receiver, but especially Rob Gronkowski, if indeed that's who Pete Carroll and crew choose to put him on. And if that's going to be a problem, I'm not so sure that Seattle should be favored any more...
3:30 pm: Welcome to the SUPER BOWL LIVE BLOG! We start with a piece of news that may be important - a tweet from ESPN's Ed Werder points out that "Earl Thomas appears to have harness to protect left shoulder, dropped 4th pass in warmups http://pbs.twimg.com/media/B8yuBANCUAApNb6.jpg
If that's the case, that puts a crimp in Seattle's plans... especially if Sherman and/or Chancellor are hurting, too...
Marshawn Lynch asked if he's surprised he didn't get the football. Says "No." I ask him, Why not? Says, "Because football is a team sport."
-
This season, the Seahawks had the most rushing yards by an NFL team since 2006, and they threw a pass needing a yard for the Super Bowl.
8:20 pm: REPOSTING (the last one vanished into the ether!): to recap, Seattle gets down to a first and goal with a riDONKulous catch where Kearse has the ball knocked away, but it bounces off his thigh as he lies on the ground and he catches it. Marshawn Lynch runs it down to the one, thirty seconds left. Then, Carroll calls a slant pass pick play that rookie free agent DB Malcomb Butler reads and intercepts, landing back on the one, game over...except it isn't quite, because Brady can't quite just fall on it. However, superstud DE Michael Bennett jumps offsides...putting it on the six, eliminating the tension, and releasing the tension from the Seattle defense, who start a fight and mar the ending just a bit.
8:04 pm: And, Michael Bennett, are YOU kidding me? Offsides, in THAT situation? No wonder Irvin started throwing punches - if I was a Seattle player I'd be pissed, too.
8:02 pm: ARE YOU KIDDING?!?!
8:00 pm: Are you kidding me?
7:55 pm: Two minute warning. Seattle ball, midfield, down four. Just the way Russell Wilson probably dreamed about as a kid...and Brady's probably half-hoping they score so he can play out the same scenario..,
7:45 pm: Under three minutes to go - so if the Patriots score a TD from within the five here, the Seahawks will have three TO and plenty of time to go...but they'll be down four, and have to score a TD. Isn't this fun?
7:35 pm: Well, we were hoping for a close Super Bowl - and we got one. 24-21, Seahawks, but the Pats have the ball with about seven to go...
7:17 pm: No team has ever come back from a 3Q deficit of more than seven points, and the leading team is 38-9 (presumably there was one tie).
7:15 pm:
Super Bowl XLIX Photoblog: Halftime highlights
ESPN.comHere are some highlights from the Super Bowl XLIX halftime show featuring Katy Perry, Lenny Kravitz and Missy Elliott.7:13 pm: Well, my son is happy. The NFL just showed the My Little Pony crew cheering for football...
Fourth quarter about to begin...7:05 pm: Too late to go back on it now, but I did sort of renege on my Seattle pick at the beginning of this blog when I saw the hobbled Seattle secondary. What I failed to reckon with was (a) Tom Brady's inability to take advantage of that fact, partly because (b) Michael Bennett is a man among boys on the front line, rushing right through the NE line and getting pressure on Brady almost every time he goes back to pass. Meanwhile, they can't lay a finger on Russell Wilson, and he's up to 8/11, with one miss in the last nine passes.
6:55 pm:
Charean Williams
6:50 pm: Good move by Bill Belechick to move Browner onto the brand new uber-receiver Chris Matthews for Seattle - they're the same height, and he's got a much better shot at defending him than the shorter 4th cornerback who covered him in the first half. (And Matthews is SO novice that I've misspelled his name until now! These catches are his first in the NFL! He was the CFL rookie of the year, played two years up there.)
6:40 pm: Now, Seattle gets the ball first, marches downfield, kicks a FG and takes its first lead of Super Bowl 49. And Chris Matthews is becoming a Super Bowl legend....
6:20 pm: Gotta admit - Katy Perry's halftime show is spectacular...
6:00 pm: Here's the first decision that Football Analytics will talk about next week, and it pays off for Pete Carroll and Seattle - six seconds to go in the half, on the ten yard line. Almost every other coach kicks the FG; Carroll trusts his 25 year old QB not to blow the clock situation, and he doesn't: back shoulder throw in the FRONT left corner of the end zone to a tall receiver - touchdown, tie game at halftime, when any other team would have settled for being down 14-10.
5:50 pm: Again, Collinsworth nails it. Belechick knows the Seattle secondary is wounded. So he's got four wide just about all the time on offense, and the mismatches are starting to show up. Touchdown, Gronkowski. 14-7, New England Patriots. Chris points out that, amazingly, the Seattle interception by Lane may decide the game in New England's favor because his injury crippled the Seahawks and their secondary.
5:43 pm:
- NE defenders may be thinking there's 32 more minutes of Marshawn Lynch coming at them.
5:35 pm: Touchdown, Beastmode. Tie game, 7-7, after a long pass connection by Wilson (finally). We got a game.
5:30 pm:
- Paul McCartney in crowd. Probably thinks the Seahawks need to play betta betta betta
Reply
Retweet
Favorite5:05 pm: First quarter plus gone, zero-zero score. At this pace, it will be a zero-zero tie. (I did that math in my head.)
4:57 pm: talk about good news / bad news! For the Pats, an eight minute drive that ends in a frankly stupid throw from Brady, and for the Hawks, an interception for Jeremy Lane that ends in what looks like a game ending injury.
4:48 pm: Firstventure into foreign territory goes to New England - seven minutes in. So far, Pats look better than Hawks.
4:40 pm: And, it seems we have our first officials controversy of the game - according to announcer Chris Collinsworth, the running into the punter penalty SHOULD have been roughing by rule. Fortunately, it didn't matter as Seattle went three and out and punted it right back....
4:20 pm: Apparently, we're in Seattle...or at least, the crowd sounds like we're in Seattle. Is that a Seattle thing, or an anti-Patriot thing?
4:00 pm: What are YOU partying with?
(No, this isn't ours... we're going with chili and chips, and some taquitos later...)
3:50 pm: Here we are based in Idaho, smack dab in Seattle country (if Denver's not in the game!)...but it's looking harder and harder to stick with our Seattle prediction, watching the secondary players warm up. The key's going to be Russell Wilson now - if the Patriots are going to be able to score on the Seahawk defense (and Tom Brady's going to find the weaknesses in an injured secondary), then Wilson's going to have to manufacture points against New England; end of story. If he's going well (and isn't concussed for 55 minutes, like he was against Green Bay!), he can do it. If not, he can't, and New England wins.
3:38 pm: I'm tempted to change our prediction. Kam Chancellor, the key to the Seattle "Legion of Boom!" secondary, is NOT moving well in a pretty bulky knee brace that's really going to inhibit his ability to cover any receiver, but especially Rob Gronkowski, if indeed that's who Pete Carroll and crew choose to put him on. And if that's going to be a problem, I'm not so sure that Seattle should be favored any more...
3:30 pm: Welcome to the SUPER BOWL LIVE BLOG! We start with a piece of news that may be important - a tweet from ESPN's Ed Werder points out that "Earl Thomas appears to have harness to protect left shoulder, dropped 4th pass in warmups http://pbs.twimg.com/media/B8yuBANCUAApNb6.jpg
If that's the case, that puts a crimp in Seattle's plans... especially if Sherman and/or Chancellor are hurting, too...
What do Australians think of the Super Bowl today? This is interesting...
Sports Fan magazine is online for free and anyone can check it out at www.sportsfan.com.au if they're interested - they have some of the best commentary on Aussie footy (and rugby and cricket and many other Australian sports) around.
But this take by senior writer Adam Jones about why he WON'T watch the Super Bowl (while many of his fellow Aussies will) is particularly interesting, coming from an outside-America sports fanatic as it is.
We American football folks have a problem.
But this take by senior writer Adam Jones about why he WON'T watch the Super Bowl (while many of his fellow Aussies will) is particularly interesting, coming from an outside-America sports fanatic as it is.
We American football folks have a problem.
Saturday, January 31, 2015
Uh-oh...
Finally, the last word before Super Bowl Sunday, Neil Paine's warning that history and the statistics over 48 previous Big Games suggests that because this game pits two of the best teams ever, it will more than likely be one of the worst game ever.
So, don't say we weren't warned!
So, don't say we weren't warned!
The 4th annual NFL Honors were tonight...
...and it was interesting to watch the NFL try to do Hollywood...
Seth Meyers did a great job...to the Boston native's credit, he spent a good chunk of the monologue skewering BallGhazi, or DeFlateGate, or whatever else we call it...
JJ Watt is apparently either a demi-god or was being softened up not to get the MVP award...although he did become the first unanimous Defensive Player of the Year...
Thomas Davis made me cry just a little bit when he won the Walter Payton Man of the Year award...
Aaron Rodgers had one of the better lines of the night telling Peyton Manning that his quad looked pretty good and he should come back already...Rodgers won the MVP but came up second best to Davis for the Man of the Year...
None of the Patriots or Seahawks were there, or allowed to be there (it seemed). Rob Gronkowski won Comeback of the Year, and his four brothers and mother accepted for him. Two of the brothers took credit for his toughness by beating upon him throughout his childhood...
Odelle Beckham Jr. got lots of credit for The Catch... but Larry Fitzgerald earned the first ever Art Rooney Sportsman of the Year, deservedly so...
Arizona Cardinals' coach Bruce Arians earned his second Coach of the Year honors, and DeMarco Murray of the Cowboys was Offensive Player of the Year.
Finally, to see Jim Kelly get a standing O from the NFL fraternity before introducing the eight member Hall of Fame class of 2015 was touching. Then, the most touched member of an obviously elated crowd of electees was veteran Vikings' lineman Mick Tinglehoff, who was selected by the veterans' committee and was almost overwhelmed by the moment. Also elected were 'contributors' Ron Wolf and Bill Polian, along with five other players: Jerome Bettis, Will Shields, Tim Brown, Charles Haley, and the late great Junior Seau, a recent suicide from concussion trauma, who was represented by his two sons (who are the spitting image of him!).
Seth Meyers did a great job...to the Boston native's credit, he spent a good chunk of the monologue skewering BallGhazi, or DeFlateGate, or whatever else we call it...
JJ Watt is apparently either a demi-god or was being softened up not to get the MVP award...although he did become the first unanimous Defensive Player of the Year...
Thomas Davis made me cry just a little bit when he won the Walter Payton Man of the Year award...
Aaron Rodgers had one of the better lines of the night telling Peyton Manning that his quad looked pretty good and he should come back already...Rodgers won the MVP but came up second best to Davis for the Man of the Year...
None of the Patriots or Seahawks were there, or allowed to be there (it seemed). Rob Gronkowski won Comeback of the Year, and his four brothers and mother accepted for him. Two of the brothers took credit for his toughness by beating upon him throughout his childhood...
Odelle Beckham Jr. got lots of credit for The Catch... but Larry Fitzgerald earned the first ever Art Rooney Sportsman of the Year, deservedly so...
Arizona Cardinals' coach Bruce Arians earned his second Coach of the Year honors, and DeMarco Murray of the Cowboys was Offensive Player of the Year.
Finally, to see Jim Kelly get a standing O from the NFL fraternity before introducing the eight member Hall of Fame class of 2015 was touching. Then, the most touched member of an obviously elated crowd of electees was veteran Vikings' lineman Mick Tinglehoff, who was selected by the veterans' committee and was almost overwhelmed by the moment. Also elected were 'contributors' Ron Wolf and Bill Polian, along with five other players: Jerome Bettis, Will Shields, Tim Brown, Charles Haley, and the late great Junior Seau, a recent suicide from concussion trauma, who was represented by his two sons (who are the spitting image of him!).
Super Bowl prop bets.
These always amuse me. You simply have to be an addict to study them more than for laughs... You can also go to Bill Simmons' pre-Super Bowl article or podcast to see a few other ones that will make you chuckle.
Enough of this flat ball crap - what about the GAME?
We've spent the VAST amount of our blogging time here at FF dealing with and laughing at the "DeFlateGate" controversy - and mind you, while it's hardly the reason the Patriots won against the Colts, I have little doubt that they indeed cheated and need some form of punishment for it - and very little talking about the Super Bowl game itself.
Which is a true shame, because it's got the potential to be a FANTASTIC and FASCINATING game! On a large scale, it's amazing to consider that if the Seattle Seahawks win, they're the first repeat champion in ten years, beat (perhaps dominated?) Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in consecutive SBs, and lay claim to being one of the great teams and certainly one of the GREAT defenses in NFL history. Conversely, if the New England Patriots win, they've got four titles in the Belechick/Brady era, six appearances in fourteen years, twelve division titles, and lay claim to their Mount Rushmore (or Passmore?) position with Walsh/Montana, Noll/Bradshaw, and Lombardi/Starr.
On a small scale, the game itself could be an amazing chess match between New England's multiple formation offense and Brady's brains and short gain drives against Seattle's fast moving defense that dares you to do exactly what the Patriots want to do...and between New England's consistent defense and the run-option, read-what-they-give-you offense of Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch.
I don't see a blowout either way, although if one team gets rolling nothing's impossible. Neither coach is going to let this get out of hand - we're not talking about Mike McCarthy of the Packers here. Belechick and Carroll are both EXTREMELY hands on coaches, both willing to risk whatever needs to be risked if the situation calls for it - if they have 4th and 1 on the goal line, they're going for the throat; that's what I'm saying! Seattle came back on an overly conservative coach; that's NOT going to happen against NE. New England confused a pair of young teams; that's NOT going to happen against SEA.
Our meaningless predictions: Katy Perry's halftime will be fun and upbeat and forgotten by next week. The National Anthem and America The Beautiful (my personal preference for a replacement for the unsingable Star Spangled Banner!) will go off without a hitch and ignored after the fact, I pray. The commercials will be great except for maybe two, and we'll talk about them for a week, and move on. The ball inflation will be checked within an inch (or a PSI) of its life, and be no factor whatsoever (but every time Brady muffs a pass, it'll come up). The nachos will be gone before kickoff. Goodell will listen to his handlers and make as short an appearance at the trophy presentation as appropriate, and the winning owner will declare his team to be one of the greats of all time.
The meaningful predictions: ESPN's many, many football writers provide their opinions here. Bill Simmons makes his (predictable) prediction here after an above-average column, even for him, here. His partner in type, Bill Barnwell, does his usual masterful job dealing with the nitty-gritty in this article. Here's the similar mass prediction article from Sports Illustrated. And you can undoubtedly find more wherever you care to look, including within your own family...
As for Following Football's crack prediction? Our record this year has been stellar, outpacing Vegas and every major venue during college bowl season, and while our record against the NFL spread was barely above guesswork, we did get the correct winners over 75% of the time this season with our tiered rankings, and it was curiously accurate in matching the point spread with a minimal amount of calculating involved.
Our tiers have Seattle above the Patriots to start with, and both computer rankings we follow closest (Elo and Sagarin) also rank Seattle first, New England second. Finally, while we wouldn't normally count controversy against a team in this situation (it's usually negated by the "us against the world" emotional factor), remember that Belechick's game planning really is a major portion of their success - he does an amazing job of taking away what he's most concerned about and focusing your attention on a game plan you weren't prepared to take on. Whatever else this distraction (and others) has done to the Patriots, it's minimized the time the coach could game plan for the multi-faceted Seahawks, and that's to Seattle's advantage:
We're taking Seattle by four.
Which is a true shame, because it's got the potential to be a FANTASTIC and FASCINATING game! On a large scale, it's amazing to consider that if the Seattle Seahawks win, they're the first repeat champion in ten years, beat (perhaps dominated?) Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in consecutive SBs, and lay claim to being one of the great teams and certainly one of the GREAT defenses in NFL history. Conversely, if the New England Patriots win, they've got four titles in the Belechick/Brady era, six appearances in fourteen years, twelve division titles, and lay claim to their Mount Rushmore (or Passmore?) position with Walsh/Montana, Noll/Bradshaw, and Lombardi/Starr.
On a small scale, the game itself could be an amazing chess match between New England's multiple formation offense and Brady's brains and short gain drives against Seattle's fast moving defense that dares you to do exactly what the Patriots want to do...and between New England's consistent defense and the run-option, read-what-they-give-you offense of Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch.
I don't see a blowout either way, although if one team gets rolling nothing's impossible. Neither coach is going to let this get out of hand - we're not talking about Mike McCarthy of the Packers here. Belechick and Carroll are both EXTREMELY hands on coaches, both willing to risk whatever needs to be risked if the situation calls for it - if they have 4th and 1 on the goal line, they're going for the throat; that's what I'm saying! Seattle came back on an overly conservative coach; that's NOT going to happen against NE. New England confused a pair of young teams; that's NOT going to happen against SEA.
Our meaningless predictions: Katy Perry's halftime will be fun and upbeat and forgotten by next week. The National Anthem and America The Beautiful (my personal preference for a replacement for the unsingable Star Spangled Banner!) will go off without a hitch and ignored after the fact, I pray. The commercials will be great except for maybe two, and we'll talk about them for a week, and move on. The ball inflation will be checked within an inch (or a PSI) of its life, and be no factor whatsoever (but every time Brady muffs a pass, it'll come up). The nachos will be gone before kickoff. Goodell will listen to his handlers and make as short an appearance at the trophy presentation as appropriate, and the winning owner will declare his team to be one of the greats of all time.
The meaningful predictions: ESPN's many, many football writers provide their opinions here. Bill Simmons makes his (predictable) prediction here after an above-average column, even for him, here. His partner in type, Bill Barnwell, does his usual masterful job dealing with the nitty-gritty in this article. Here's the similar mass prediction article from Sports Illustrated. And you can undoubtedly find more wherever you care to look, including within your own family...
As for Following Football's crack prediction? Our record this year has been stellar, outpacing Vegas and every major venue during college bowl season, and while our record against the NFL spread was barely above guesswork, we did get the correct winners over 75% of the time this season with our tiered rankings, and it was curiously accurate in matching the point spread with a minimal amount of calculating involved.
Our tiers have Seattle above the Patriots to start with, and both computer rankings we follow closest (Elo and Sagarin) also rank Seattle first, New England second. Finally, while we wouldn't normally count controversy against a team in this situation (it's usually negated by the "us against the world" emotional factor), remember that Belechick's game planning really is a major portion of their success - he does an amazing job of taking away what he's most concerned about and focusing your attention on a game plan you weren't prepared to take on. Whatever else this distraction (and others) has done to the Patriots, it's minimized the time the coach could game plan for the multi-faceted Seahawks, and that's to Seattle's advantage:
We're taking Seattle by four.
Monday, January 26, 2015
Interesting Super Bowl Fact #5
Seattle won last year's Super Bowl by a score of 43-8, a winning margin of 35 points.
New England has three Super Bowl titles...won by a combined total of 9 points. (A field goal victory each time - 20-17 over the Rams, 32-29 over Carolina, and 24-21 over Philadelphia.)
If you count wins AND losses, Seattle's SMALLEST margin was 11 points, in a loss to Pittsburgh (21-10) in 2006.
Meanwhile, in the Belechick era, the LARGEST margin in any of their FIVE Super Bowls was 4 points, when the Giants beat them 21-17 in a game that every Pats fan has beaten out of their memory for sanity's sake.
(Of course, if you go back pre-Belechick, there WAS that one time in 1986, when Da Bears beat the Pats 46-10, in a game that wasn't even THAT close...)
New England has three Super Bowl titles...won by a combined total of 9 points. (A field goal victory each time - 20-17 over the Rams, 32-29 over Carolina, and 24-21 over Philadelphia.)
If you count wins AND losses, Seattle's SMALLEST margin was 11 points, in a loss to Pittsburgh (21-10) in 2006.
Meanwhile, in the Belechick era, the LARGEST margin in any of their FIVE Super Bowls was 4 points, when the Giants beat them 21-17 in a game that every Pats fan has beaten out of their memory for sanity's sake.
(Of course, if you go back pre-Belechick, there WAS that one time in 1986, when Da Bears beat the Pats 46-10, in a game that wasn't even THAT close...)
Interesting Super Bowl Fact #4
Seattle is the very first team in ten years to reach the Super Bowl after winning it the previous year. (In fact, they're the first defending champion to even win a playoff game in ten years.)
The last team to do it?
New England, 2003-2004.
(And they won, too.)
The last team to do it?
New England, 2003-2004.
(And they won, too.)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)