Weekend Wapp-up Wezults...

Moral of the story... letting family come in the way of football hurts your prognostication prowess! (On the other hand, letting football come in the way of family is FAR WORSE CRIME.) We did well with the Aussies; no complaints on the CFL or NFL, although they could've been better; but our college predictions, so good last week, were well under five-hundred yesterday - while our Saturday was (more appropriately) spent with the oldest son off at college visiting (and stocking his pantry and gas tank!). Nevertheless: priorities, priorities...

CFL: Hard to complain when we go 1-3, partly because this season is NUTS in the CFL, partly because we still outscored many experts! However, we went 1-2-1 against the spread, getting a win from Hamilton (appropriate, as that's the son's name!) and a push from the Winnipeg/Saskatchewan game, while Ottawa and Edmonton pulled the mild upsets.

AFL: Hit three of the four out of the park - it will indeed be West Coast and Fremantle hosting the preliminary finals in west Australia in two weeks, and Adelaide did manage to beat the Western Bulldogs on the <ahem> "home" grounds of the MCG by seven points; our one miss was Richmond's loss at the hands of the well-rested North Melbourne Kangaroos, who were allowed to rest half their team last week in prep for this game. North plays at Sydney next Saturday, and Adelaide plays at Hawthorn on Friday; the winners return to west Australia the following weekend for the shot at the Grand Final.

NFL: Went 7-7 so far against the spread (NOTE to the uninitiated: the NFL is the HARDEST to make a living at betting on because of the parity of the league. Our model assumes only about a fourteen point gap from team 1 to team 32 on the best of days; certain conditions reduce that even further.) and 8-6 straight up, with two more games to go tomorrow night. Very impressed with Buffalo, Tennessee, and Cincy today!

NCAA: Well, let's see...
--> TOP TIER GAMES: Oddly, we were 3-0 against the spread but only 1-2 straight up. (Check the original post for the specific games and predictions - too many to list!) Oregon and Mississippi St covered, but only the Sooners came through for the win.

--> OTHER GAMES OF INTEREST: We went 12-4 straight up (with some more leaners that I should have been more explicit about claiming) but only 9-13 against the spread. (Particularly proud of picking in Houston's favor!)

-->BLOWOUTS: Of course all thirteen won (ahem - we're looking at YOU, Auburn! Very pleased for Jacksonville St!) but we only picked the right side of the spread explosion on five of the thirteen.

--> OTHER FBS: Actually, we did better on these than I thought we had... we went 15-11 against the spread, which we'll take; and we were 24-2 straight up (the two upsets being Bowling Green's rout of Big Ten's Maryland, 48-27 IN Maryland, and the worst of the SEC wounds, Arkansas' 16-12 loss to Toledo from the MAC, 16-12).  So, over all in the FBS choices, we went 32-32 against the spread - coin toss - and 50-8 straight up.

--> FCS GAMES: Here is where we fell on our faces... we may have managed 11-6 straight up (not as impressive as it sounds) but we were an abysmal 4-13 against the spread in the FCS only games. We plead ignorance, but we were the ones who picked which games to name, so that's no excuse. We did slightly better overall in the FCS games, and while our overall betting record this week was 61-14 straight up and just 36-45 against the spread; our record including games we didn't share ahead of time was three below 50% on points. (Can't claim it, though, unless we'd said it first.)

....OVERALL, then, here are our 2015 records so far:
AFL - 146 right and 55 wrong overall; 118-83 against the spread.
CFL - 27 right and 21 wrong overall.
NFL - 7 and 7 overall; 8 and 6 against the spread; two games still pending.
NCAA - 131 and 24 overall; 83 right against the spread and 72 wrong. 

Pat Forde evaluates the current college coaching carousel - capiche?

Actually, that's all I need to say...

It's college bowl season - continued!

Here's week two of the FBS bowl season, from Dec 27 onwards (see our previous post for the first week's predictions), from ESPN, Sagarin, Vegas, and Following Football:

Dec 27                                           ESPN                  Sagarin                  Vegas           Following F
Cincinnati v Virginia Tech:       Cinc by 6           Cinc by 0.2           Cinc by 3         Cinc by 6
Duke v Arizona St:                      ASU by 4        ASU by 6.6        ASU by 7.5    ASU by 4
Miami-FL v South Carolina:     Mia by 7            SC by 0.3            Mia by 3           SC by 1
Boston College v Penn St           PSU by 3          BC by 3                  BC by 2.5         BC by 2
Nebraska v USC:                         USC by 11        USC by 2.1         USC by 6.5   USC by 1

Dec 29
Texas A&M v West Virginia      A&M by 1         A&M by 2.0     WV by 3.5        A&M by 2
Oklahoma v Clemson:                OU by 11             OU by 5.6             OU by 3           OU by 1/2
Arkansas v Texas:                       Ark by 7           Ark by 12.4       Ark by 6        Ark by 1

Dec 30
Notre Dame v LSU:                     LSU by 3            LSU by 12.7         LSU by 7          LSU by 5
Georgia v Louisville:                   Lou by 4             UGA by 11.5     UGA by 6.5   UGA by 3
Maryland v Stanford:                 Stan by 14      Stan by 11.2      Stan by 14     Stan by 6

Dec 31
Ole Miss v TCU:                           TCU by 3         TCU by 1.4        TCU by 3       TCU by 2
Boise St v Arizona:                      Ariz by 3            Ariz by 5.2            Ariz by 3.5       Ariz by 4.5
Mississippi St v Georgia Tech:  GT by 4           MSU by 10.2        MSU by 6.5     MSU by 1

Jan 1
Auburn v Wisconsin:                  Aub by 7            Aub by 10.3          Aub by 6.5       Aub by 2
Michigan St v Baylor:                Bay by 7            Bay by 4.6             Bay by 3           Bay by 3.5
Missouri v Minnesota:               Mizz by 4       Mizz by 6.4        Mizz by 5      Mizz by 2.5
Florida St v Oregon:                   Ore by 11        Ore by 9.7          Ore by 9        Ore by 3
Ohio St v Alabama:                     Ala by 7             Ala by 4.3               Ala by 9.5       Ala by 3
  Jan 2
Pitt v Houston:                              Pitt by 4           Pitt by 3.1             Pitt by 3            Pitt by 1
Iowa v Tennessee:                        Tenn by 11    Tenn by 6.3      Tenn by 3.5   Tenn by 3
Kansas St v UCLA:                       KSU by 3          KSU by 5              KSU by 3           KSU by 2
Washington v Oklahoma St:      UW by 14         UW by 5               UW by 5.5         UW by 7

Jan 3
East Carolina v Florida:             ECU by 4          Fla by 13.6        Fla by 7           Fla by 4

Jan 4
Toledo v Arkansas St:                 Toledo by 4       ArkSt by 0.3    Toledo by 3   Toledo by 1

Now, if the predictions hold true, we'll be previewing the Oregon/Alabama national championship game on January 12th in the new year. And remember, not only will we be tallying our Following Football predictions compared to that of the casinos, but also running a pure count of how many games each of the four predictors does forecasting 39 games where the teams have had a month to both rust and prepare.

So, let's assume Boise finishes off Fresno tonight...

...(and it's 28-0 in the third quarter), what will our "final" FF tier-rankings look like? And, therefore, what do WE think the big bowls should look like when they're announced tomorrow?

Rank     Team                         Conf  Rec     Conf rec

A1	Oregon	pac	12-1	9-1
A2	Alabama	sec	12-1	8-1
A3	Florida St	acc	13-0	9-0
A4	Ohio St	b10	12-1	9-0
A5	TCU	b12	11-1	8-1
A6	Baylor	b12	11-1	8-1
B07	Mississippi St	sec	10-2	6-2
B08	Michigan St	b10	10-2	7-1
B09	Georgia Tech	acc	10-3	6-3
B10	Ole Miss	sec	9-3	5-3
B11	Kansas St	b12	9-3	7-2
B12	Auburn	sec	8-4	5-3
C13	LSU	sec	8-4	4-4
C14	Georgia	sec	9-3	6-2
C15	Missouri	sec	10-3	7-2
C16	Arizona	pac	10-3	7-3
C17	UCLA	pac	9-3	6-3
C18	Arizona St	pac	9-3	6-3
D19	Oklahoma	b12	8-4	5-4
D20	Wisconsin	b10	10-3	7-2
D21	Clemson	acc	9-3	6-2
D22	USC	pac	8-4	6-3
D23	Boise St	mw	11-2	8-1
D24	Minnesota	b10	8-4	5-3
E25	Nebraska	b10	9-3	5-3
E26	Louisville	acc	9-3	5-3
E27	Texas A&M	sec	7-5	3-5
E28	Arkansas	sec	6-6	2-6
E29	Duke	acc	9-3	5-3
E30	Colorado St	mw	10-2	6-2

We did what we suspect the committee MIGHT do (DESPITE all of OUR protests to the contrary over the last five days!) and LEAPFROG Ohio St over TCU (as we said, no matter what the committee's rankings said, Florida St was safe with a win, or there would be a nationwide manhunt for dead committee members).

We saw Ohio St take their third-string quarterback and do the same thing to freak'n Wisconsin that the Frogs did to 2-10 Iowa St, at home nonetheless... It's completely conceivable that the committee put OSU five so that if they were to win weakly with a backup at QB (the SAME backup they'd have in the playoffs), they could leave them OUT of the playoff with impunity. 

Here's another factor we take seriously here as Christians; it remains to be seen if it comes into play tomorrow. The Big Twelve blatantly changed its own rules last week to try to sneak TCU into the playoff. Despite their rules (ratified THIS SUMMER!) saying that head-to-head alone decided the conference champ, they knew the committee had insisted that conference champions would get first priority. Without the change, TCU was NOT a conference champ. Now they are. POOF! We are hopeful that a committee with people like Condoleeza Rice on it is ethical enough not to reward that kind of chicanery. Ohio St is an authentic conference champion. (So are Alabama, Oregon, and Florida St.) There's your four playoff teams. DONE.

What about the other bowls?

Automatic bids: Baylor (Big 12 champion, by the 'real' definition), and Boise St (Group of Five highest ranked champion).

Next teams in: TCU, Mississippi St, Michigan St, Georgia Tech, Ole Miss, and Kansas St. (Your mileage may vary. These teams are much more subject to flux, as are their bowl placements.)

Bowl placements (the other four are best guess only):

Sugar Bowl (playoff): Florida St (#3) v. Alabama (#2)

Rose Bowl (playoff): Ohio St (#4) v. Oregon (#1)

    [As an aside, the B1G, Pac-12, and SEC champs go to their "traditional" sites. Dumb luck.]

Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech (ACC) v. Baylor (Big12 champ)

Fiesta Bowl: Boise St (Group of 5) v. Kansas St (Big 12)

Cotton Bowl: TCU (Big12) v. Ole Miss (SEC)

Peach Bowl: Mississippi St (SEC) v  Michigan St (Big 10)

SO? What do you think? We'll post the other #31-128 in a separate post momentarily...

More Easterbrook: Tie athlete's grades to university success

Even if you don't read the rest of the column, take a look at this important concept which Easterbrook and others have pushed for more than a decade: Tie the university's scholarships, championships, and money into their athletes' graduation rates. Here's a segment on how the football championship would be affected (and the whole column is linked here):

ESPN Grade Projects The Final Four:Entrants in the initial College Football Playoff will be announced Sunday. Perhaps the selection committee will pause to give lip service to education, but the choices will be all about which teams generate the best sports entertainment -- as if NCAA football were an NFL junior league, rather than an aspect of college.

Of course, that's what many people think. ButESPN Grade takes the NCAA and the Power 5 at their word and ranks the top teams as if players were actual student-athletes. ESPN Grade says the final four should be:

1. 1. Alabama
2. 2. TCU
3. 3. Oregon
4. 4. Ohio State

ESPN Grade adds the Associated Press and USA Today rankings with a sort of the top programs by graduation rate, giving each the same weight. So Alabama is 1 + 1 + 7 = 9, the best ranking. TCU is 4 + 4+ 4 = 12. Oregon is 3 + 3 + 13 = 19. Ohio State 6 + 6 + 8 = 20. Florida State drops out of the picture at 2 + 2 + 21 = 25. Mississippi State plummets at 10 + 10 + 18 = 38.

More on rivalries...

Watching the Egg Bowl, we want to emphasize that just because the key element is the unpredictability of the outcome, that doesn't mean that proximity isn't important, sharing a conference, division, and state aren't important, and that enmity doesn't abound - after the Ole Miss runback, the Mississippi St defenders had a few leftover turkey recipes to share with their Rebel opponents...

College predictions for Week 13!

Like we whined about with the pro schedule (our "whine" which was really a praise, of course!), we've been able to refine our tiers to the point where our tier-based predictions barely differ from the casino lines or from the Sagarin point spreads. We'll review some of the major contests coming up this Thanksgiving weekend, along with the games where we actually have some differing forecasts to consider...

Games of the highest interest:

Thursday - TCU @ Texas - The Horned Frogs are favored by anywhere from 6 1/2 to 9 points, but with the surging Longhorns looking for a pelt to prove they're on the road back, our instincts are telling us TCU's in trouble.

Friday - Arkansas @ Missouri - Another case of a surging lower team looking for a pelt, but in this case the Tier E Razorbacks are ready to make a full coat if they can prevent Mizzou from winning the East!

Arizona St @ Arizona - The Territorial Cup hasn't looked this good in the 21st century! Both 9-2, both Tier C, #17 and #18 on our ranking list - and the Pac-12 South title in reach for both. Wildcats get the three point ad for being at home from us.

Stanford @ UCLA - ...but they'll have to hope the Bruins lose if they want to play Oregon next week. And UCLA's firing on too many cylinders to let that happen.

Virginia @ Virginia Tech - Both 5-6, both need the win to go to a bowl. Question: if VaTech lost, would they really consider letting Frank Beamer go?

Saturday - South Carolina @ Clemson - Always fun! Clemson by 4.5 up to 6, depending on which of us you listen to. The state championship is on the line...

Kentucky @ Louisville - And here too, where the Cardinals are favored by 8 up to 13.5, depending on who you get your info from. We're the low end, as usual - we've had a soft spot for the Wildcats all year, but if they continue their downward trend, it may be much worse than that.

Michigan @ Ohio St - Probably Brady Hoke's last game. And if OSU comes up with a reason to run it up - to impress the committee, perhaps? - this could be uglier than the 17-22 point spreads we have in place.

Purdue @ Indiana - We can't even say it's for the state championship...Notre Dame won that. Hoosiers by 1.5 to 3.

Notre Dame @ USC - Glad they've found a way to keep this one on the schedule. Trojans by 3-7, although if Golson plays well, we see ND having a puncher's chance.

Florida @ Florida St - If you bet on this game, you're crazy. Sure, the spread is consistent: 5-11 points (we have it at 11), but if FSU wants to keep it close...if Florida decides to "win one for the Champer"....or lay down and die...this could be a rout either way, or a tie game at the death...

Baylor @ Texas Tech - Nothing to see here: Assuming the Bears show up (and they will), this game's job is to certify their credentials to pass TCU...who put up 82 on Tech. Hmm... The spread is 16-25, but if Baylor gets rolling, it might as well be 1625...

Kansas @ Kansas St - See previous comments.

Auburn @ Alabama - Why bother? The Iron Bowl can't POSSIBLY top last year's game... 'Bama by 5-10 points.

Oregon @ Oregon St - If you don't keep at least half an eye on this game, you might be surprised come Sunday morning! Sure, the Ducks are favored over the Beavers (by the way, the Civil War trophy is a combination of the two animals - hence, a platypus!) by 13-22 points, but there's a reason we're at the low end of that spread. OSU/Oregon has ALWAYS had the potential to ruin someone's season!

Games of a betting interest (but DON'T BET ON THEM!):

Friday - Northern Illinois @ Western Michigan - Hard to believe the Broncos are favored over the Huskies, but they are! We say by 1 point; Vegas says 7. (Sagarin, by the way, splits the difference: 3 1/2.)

Buffalo @ U Mass - The official line is Buffalo by 2; we call it EVEN. (Sagarin encourages us by picking UM by 2!)

Wyoming @ New Mexico - Coming off the shellacking Boise gave them, the Cowboys are 4 1/2 point underdogs in Vegas; we have them as one point faves! (Sagarin rates the game even.)

Games that are BOTH interesting on and off the field:

Thursday - LSU @ Texas A&M - We're picking the Aggies by 1; Vegas picks the Tigers by 2.5! (Sagarin rates it even.) Two teams who could beat anyone, but don't...

Friday - Nebraska @ Iowa - The Big Ten keeps trying to contrive rivalries since Oklahoma no longer shares the schedule. But this one seems to us to be the most natural, geographically. We see the Huskers by 3; Vegas has Iowa by 1. (Sagarin agrees with us.)

Georgia Tech @ Georgia - The state championship of Georgia looks like a foregone conclusion for Vegas; they favor UGA by 13 (Sagarin says 16.5!). We think Tech will stay within 6. (We do have a soft spot for Georgia Tech, though...)

Minnesota @ Wisconsin - We have a soft spot for the Golden Gophers, too - and they've got a legit shot at the Big Ten West title, if they can go into Madison and steal a game the way they stole the game (and the ball!) from Nebraska last week! We have UW as only a five point favorite; Vegas thinks Melvin Gordon runs wild and wins by two TDs. We like you, Badgers, but we're rooting for UM this weekend!!

Mississippi St @ Ole Miss - Can't recall this ever being THE game of the weekend! If Ole Miss had held up their end of the bargain, this could have been the game of the season! The casinos think MSU should be two-point favorites; we think Ole Miss at home should be the favorite, though not by much (half-point?). In the SEC West, home field has been everything. Our hunch is that it will be here, too.

We reveal our tiers and rankings after Week 12's games...

TIER A: 1. Alabama (10-1). 2. Mississippi St (10-1). 3. Florida St (11-0). 4. Oregon (10-1). 5. Baylor (9-1). 6. TCU (9-1). Same as last week. And yes, FSU is undefeated, but if they were playing 'Bama or MSU on a neutral field, who would be the favorite? That's our standard.

TIER B: 7. Ohio St (10-1). 8. Georgia (9-2). 9. UCLA (9-2), moving up after a strong win against a good team. 10. Michigan St (9-2). 11. Kansas St (8-2). 12. Auburn (8-3). We don't think the two-loss teams have a realistic shot at the playoff at this late point; if anyone, MAYBE the Dogs or Bruins, but that's it.

TIER C: 13. Oklahoma (8-3). 14. Missouri (9-2).  15. Ole Miss (8-3). 16. Wisconsin (9-2). 17. Arizona St (9-2). 18. Arizona (9-2). 19. Georgia Tech (9-2). 20. LSU (7-4). Firstly, yes, there are eight teams, but we feel these eight are very similarly leveled. Second, they're more erratic than A and B, so on any given day, any of these teams could beat the others. And third, can't wait for the Territorial Cup game between Arizona and Arizona St!

TIER D: 21. Minnesota (8-3), with a bullet. 22. Nebraska (8-3), and could've won that game easily. 23. Marshall (11-0). 24. Colorado St (10-1), and we're not at all sure they (or Boise) aren't better than the Herd for that big bowl spot! 25. Clemson (8-3). 26. Texas A&M (7-4).

TIER E: 27. Louisville (8-3), after that great win at Notre Dame. 28. Arkansas (6-5), and you wouldn't want to face them in a bowl game right now! 29. Boise St (9-2), and improving weekly. 30. USC (8-4). 31. Duke (8-3), blowing their chance Thursday night. 32. Notre Dame (7-4), dropping like a rock. 33. Utah (7-4).

TIER F, the transition from the "top level" teams to the "mid-level" ones: 34. Maryland (7-4). 35. Stanford (6-5), with an impressive win at Cal. 36. South Carolina (6-5). 37. Florida (6-4), but not good enough to keep their coach, apparently. 38. West Virginia (6-5). 39. Miami-FL (6-5). 40. Texas (6-5).

Looking at the new FOLLOWING FOOTBALL tier rankings...

...our Top 4 are Alabama, Mississippi St, Florida St, and Oregon. As we noted Saturday, we're not likely to punish a team for losing by the amount expected (the Vegas spread was seven; they lost by five), especially on the road against another Tier A school. Sure, we'll move the Tide above them, but was the Seminoles' performance against an unranked, Tier G Miami squad more impressive? No. Certainly, we're much less impressed with TCU's debacle at Kansas than anything the Bulldogs did in Tuscaloosa. If you thought they'd lose at Alabama, and they do, no worse than expected - how can you punish that? To us, this is a classic case of the loss being more impressive than TCU's win.

...We made some adjustments based on some external rankings this week, in particular Peter Wolfe and Jeff Sagarin's work, but also looking through the Massey Index we linked to last week as well. If there were virtual ties within a tier, for example, we'd often turn to those sources for a second opinion (sorting out the middle of the ACC North, for example), but on a few occasions a consensus of opinions different from ours made us re-evaluate our rankings. The most blatant example was Western Kentucky, whom we had within three tiers of the bottom all year but whom every list we consulted had up in the 80's or so. Given their recent body of work (they're up to .500 now) and those opinions, we concurred and moved them up to tier O, number 88 on your radio dial...

...Looking at the list with conferences attached (yes, that's what the lower case letters after the overall record are!), a fairly clear pattern emerges: The SEC gets the benefit of the doubt if there's an extra loss on the record, particularly the West, over the closely regarded Pac-12, Big-12, and Big-10. The ACC is probably not quite as well regarded, or schools like Duke would be higher. Then there's a bit of a gap, because it takes about a two-game better record for a school from the Mountain West or the old Big East, the AAC, to match a school from one of the Power 5. (#37 is Maryland at 6-4; #38 is Boise St at 8-2.) Then, you drop down to the MAC, Conference USA, and the Sun Belt, all of whom lie essentially in a second division as it is (and the MW/AAC are fighting to stay above that). That's why Marshall sits in #25 with a 10-0 record: the schools in that "division" can't run with the "big boys" because they can't play the big boys. Rankings are determined first and foremost by one simple question: if these two teams played on a neutral field, who would win? The winner is ranked higher, the loser lower. Marshall's beaten everyone it's played...but would it beat any of the 24 teams above it? Arizona? Duke? Notre Dame? Oklahoma? It might even be generous to say that they'd beat the teams immediately below it...Utah? Clemson? Louisville? Miami-FL? We'd love to see them against West Virginia, given their proximity! 

...In fact, here's an interesting tidbit: The "strength of schedule" parameter for FCS defending champion North Dakota St is actually HIGHER than that of FBS Marshall! It's hard to argue that they're playing opponents that are comparable to what even Florida St is facing, much less the SEC!

...These tiers make for some strange bedfellows! Seeing Texas moving all the way up to #40, right below...East Carolina? And finding 6-4 Nevada at #59, right between North Carolina St (6-5) and North Carolina (5-5)! 

...Towards the bottom, in our attempt to keep our six-team tiers consistent (for a change, right?), we ended up with a "Bottom Two" - Georgia St and SMU. Despite the Mustangs' winless record, Georgia St is rated below them in many of the computer systems we looked through. Nevertheless, only a true #128 could lose the game Saturday the way they lost it - giving up a near-legendary twenty-one play drive over the course of the last six minutes of the game, including three fourth down conversions with the game on the line, and letting the opponent you've held scoreless for 3 1/2 quarters score the touchdown they had to score in the last six seconds to win. Amazing. (Admittedly, Idaho is close, though - losing to Tier T Troy, at home, by 17 points, when they'd been favored going in. That's impressive.)

We reveal our first full #1-128 FBS ranking of the season!

A1. Alabama (9-1) sec
A2. Mississippi St (9-1) sec
A3. Florida St (10-0) acc
A4. Oregon (9-1) pac
A5. Baylor (8-1) b12
A6. TCU (9-1) b12

B7. Ole Miss (8-2) sec
B8. Ohio St (9-1) b10
B9. Georgia (8-2) sec
B10. Mich St (8-2) b10
B11. Wisconsin (8-2) b10
B12. Auburn (7-3) sec

C13. Kansas St (7-2) b12
C14. UCLA (8-2) pac
C15. Arizona St (8-2) pac
C16. LSU (7-4) sec
C17. Nebraska (8-2) b10
C18. USC (8-3) pac

D19. Oklahoma (7-3) b12
D20. Notre Dame (7-3) ind
D21. Georgia Tech (9-2) acc
D22. Missouri (8-2) sec
D23. Arizona (8-2) pac
D24. Duke (8-2) acc

E25. Marshall (10-0) cusa
E26. Utah (7-3) pac
E27. Texas A&M (7-4) sec
E28. Clemson (7-3) acc
E29. Colorado St (9-1) mwc
E30. Minnesota (7-3) b10

F31. Louisville (7-3) acc
F32. Miami-FL (6-4) acc
F33. West Virginia (6-4) b12
F34. South Carolina (5-5) sec
F35. Florida (5-4) sec
F36. Arkansas (5-5) sec

G37. Maryland (6-4) b10
G38. Boise St (8-2) mwc
G39. East Carolina (6-3) aac
G40. Texas (6-5) b12
G41. California (5-5) pac
G42. Tennessee (5-5) sec

H43. Stanford (5-5) pac
H44. Iowa (7-3) b10
H45. Penn St (6-4) b10
H46. Memphis (7-3) aac
H47. Utah St (8-3) mwc
H48. Oklahoma St (5-5) b12

I49. Washington (6-5) pac
I50. Air Force (8-2) mwc
I51. Cincinnati (6-3) aac
I52. Oregon St (5-5) pac
I53. Rutgers (6-4) b10
I54. Kentucky (5-6) sec

J55. Boston College (6-4) acc
J56. Virginia Tech (5-5) acc
J57. BYU (6-4) ind
J58. North Carolina St (6-5) acc
J59. Nevada (6-4) mwc
J60. North Carolina (5-5) acc

K61. Central Florida (6-3) aac
K62. Northern Illinois (8-2) mac
K63. Louisiana Tech (7-3) cusa
K64. Virginia (4-6) acc
K65. Pitt (4-6) acc
K66. Navy (5-5) ind

L67. Michigan (5-5) b10
L68. UL-Lafayette (7-3) sun
L69. Toledo (6-4) mac
L70. Western Michigan (7-3) mac
L71. Northwestern (4-6) b10
L72. Houston (5-4) aac

M73. Georgia Southern (8-3) sun
M74. Temple (5-5) aac
M75. Bowling Green (7-3) mac
M76. UTEP (6-4) cusa
M77. Arkansas St (6-4) sun
M78. Central Michigan (7-4) mac

N79. San Diego St (5-5) mwc
N80. Syracuse (3-7) acc
N81. Rice (6-4) cusa
N82. Illinois (4-6) b10
N83. Washington St (3-7) pac
N84. Texas Tech (3-7) b12

O85. Wyoming (4-6) mwc
O86. Fresno St (4-6) mwc
O87. Kansas (3-7) b12
O88. Western Kentucky (5-5) cusa
O89. Purdue (3-7) b10
O90. Ohio (5-5) mac

P91. Texas St (5-5) sun
P92. UAB (5-5) cusa
P93. Colorado (2-8) pac
P94. Iowa St (2-7) b12
P95. Appalachian St (5-5) sun
P96. Middle Tennessee (5-5) cusa

Q97. South Alabama (6-4) sun
Q98. Vanderbilt (3-7) sec
Q99. Indiana (3-7) b10
Q100. FIU (4-6) cusa
Q101. UL-Monroe (3-7) sun
Q102. Hawaii (3-8) mwc

R103. South Florida (4-6) aac
R104. San Jose St (3-7) mwc
R105. Tulane (3-7) aac
R106. FAU (3-7) cusa
R107. Buffalo (4-6) mac
R108. Old Dominion (4-6) cusa

S109. New Mexico (3-7) mwc
S110. Ball St (3-7) mac
S111. Akron (4-6) mac
S112. Wake Forest (2-8) acc
S113. U Massachusetts (3-7) mac
S114. Southern Miss (3-8) cusa

T115. UTSA (3-7) sun
T116. Army (3-7) ind
T117. North Texas (3-7) cusa
T118. Miami-OH (2-9) mac
T119. Troy (3-8) sun
T120. Tulsa (2-8) aac

U121. U Connecticut (2-7) aac
U122. UNLV (2-9) mwc
U123. Eastern Michigan (2-8) mwc
U124. New Mexico St (2-8) sun
U125. Kent St (1-9) mac
U126. Idaho (1-9) sun

V127. Georgia St (1-9) sun
V128. SMU (0-9) aac

Tomorrow morning, we'll break down the Week 11 rankings, as well as post the NFL TIERS and visit the Canadian playoff victories by the two home teams, Montreal and Edmonton. But, YES, the letters are indeed the tiers, and they're all six per tier for a change!

Notes from Saturday's games

Again, our apologies for not updating yesterday - technical difficulties prevented it. Here are some of our notes from November 15th...

First, we HAVE to start with Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon, who only needed three quarters to break the FBS record for rushing yards in a game. In 25 carries, he amassed 408 yards against the freak'n University of Nebraska! It's not like they played the College of Faith or something! Averaging over 16 yards a carry, he had SIX rushes of at least 35 yards, and SEVEN in which he wasn't TOUCHED for at least 20! It was his fifth 200+ yard game as a Badger. (Finally, in contrast, Wake Forest hasn't rushed for 408 all season - they have just 341 yards on 317 carries in ten games!)

Fumbles at the goal line are becoming more and more common. After the tragic (Ole Miss) and the comical (Utah), the fumbles this week were more conventional. Of primary note was the second TD Alabama scored on Mississippi St... It sure looked to this typist like the fumble came before the touchdown, and how would THAT have changed the outcome of the game?

We wrote about this yesterday, but it bears repeating: Playing the 128th best team in FBS AND BEING SHUT OUT, South Florida had to score a touchdown with about eight minutes to go in the game to close to 13-7, force a punt, and then go on what has to be the drive of the year: twenty-one plays, six minutes,  75 yards, converting three fourth downs along the way, including 4th and goal on the two with six seconds to go, which of course they converted to win the game over SMU, 14-13. What a heartbreaking way to lose!

Ever take a look at the Massey Index?

No, it's not a money-market fund, nor a government economic indicator. It's the composite of 121 different rating systems from all across the country, in an attempt to derive the ultimate "meta-ranking", the consensus of all the polls and surveys and computer rankings and "systems" as best Kenneth Massey can do. Take a look - it's amazing! (It's also overload, if you're not ready for it!)

A few things to notice...

1. Their top four are Alabama, Mississippi St, Oregon, and TCU. (The one difference is that we have Oregon 5th, and Florida St in the top 4. Massey lists them seventh.)

2. The SEC has strength. They have the top two (it was the top four last week!), four of the top six, and six of the top 12. Within that top twelve, there are also two Pac-12 schools, two Big-12 schools, an ACC rep and one from the Big-10.

3. Marshall is 21st. (We have them in Tier E, which is #25-30.) Following them, the next highest "Group Of Five" school is Boise St, at #30.

4. Records aren't all that important. It depends who you played...and more often, whom you beat. #1 Alabama has a loss, and the three undefeated teams are #2, #7, and #21. Two-loss Auburn and Ole Miss are #5 and #6, respectively, and three-loss LSU is #12. (So, you can lose, if you're losing to top-ten SEC teams...)

5. There are teams the Massey Index loves - Louisiana Tech is all the way up in #39, whereas we have them in Tier K, equivalent to #61-66 - and there are teams that really sink in this ranking, like South Florida, whom we have in Tier P (#97-100). They come in at #111, just above Tier S Hawaii and just behind Tier R- Southern Miss.

6. #128 is not SMU! Despite being the only winless team in the entirety of FBS, the woeful Mustangs are only #127...Georgia St gets the honor of falling just below them into the cellar (and it's not really close). At least they were also a Bottom Six team (actually, we only had a Bottom Five in tier U this week) - and those five teams come in at spots #123, 124, 126, 127, and 128, with only Tier T Eastern Michigan disturbing the sweep at #125.

So, who's still IN?

All season long, ESPN has played the "Eliminator" game, voting teams off the island each week who no longer have a chance to make the four team College Football playoff. 

It's been an interesting exercise, not unlike our 128 team tiering of the whole of the FBS landscape - half of their teams were eliminated the first week (and in truth, as they admit today, could have been before the season), but they're down to nine teams: Alabama, Arizona St, Baylor, Florida St, Mississippi St, Ohio St, Ole Miss, Oregon, and TCU.

Do you agree with their list? Those nine teams comprise the six "Tier A" teams, the one "B+" team, and two of our five other "Tier B" teams (the others are Auburn, Nebraska, and Notre Dame; we would argue that Nebraska still has a shot).

They also have an "On The Fence" category, which makes no sense to us - either you have a chance, or you don't. Simple. For whatever it's worth, they list Arizona, Auburn, Duke, Georgia, Kansas St, Michigan St, Nebraska, and UCLA in that category. It's impossible for us to consider the two and three loss teams on that list as viable; they won't consider Duke, even though they could be a one-loss ACC champ with a defeat of Florida St on their resume; and that just leaves Nebraska, as we said before.

SO...ten teams. Four weeks to go. Several of them play each other; they all have some tough tests ahead of them. Right now, here's our pecking order (COMPLETELY subject to change on a weekly basis!) ---- but the fun is in following the football and finding out what happens!

1. Mississippi St
2. Alabama
3. Florida St
4. TCU
5. Oregon
6. Baylor
7. Ohio St
8. Arizona St
9. Nebraska
10. Ole Miss

...and now, the nitty gritty details!

You'll notice, when you look at the new tiers for Week 10 of the NCAA FBS season, that we've started doing some more subdividing of the teams beyond the six-member tiers we'd cut them into previously. Treat the plus/minus markings the same way you would school grades (we ARE old school teachers, after all!) - a plus indicates that we think they're slightly better than the rest of the tier; a minus that they're slightly worse.

Also, you'll notice that Tier R is under investigation for steroid use, as it's grown abnormally large in a short time frame. Frankly, we didn't think those teams could be easily separated, so we didn't.

Later today, we'll post outright predictions for next week's games...and then we'll see how they compare with the Vegas betting lines. As those of you who were following our posts yesterday are aware,  our tier arrangement forecast games better than either Vegas OR our own personal instincts did this week for the college ranks. (The NFL has achieved such parity that it's a crapshoot each week; if we try this with the pros, it'll be a complete lark!) Regardless of the outcome - which we forbid you to use for betting purposes! - it should be interesting to follow!

As for specific details of the new arrangement:

1. We've chosen our Final Four - at least, for the moment! TCU and Alabama are clearly the most accomplished of the one-loss teams, with strong victories yesterday and elsewhere, along with the most tenuous of losses on their records (last second losses on the home field of top teams). They sit along side undefeated and proven Mississippi St and Florida St as the four best...for now.

2. Baylor, Oregon, and Ohio St are next in line. Again, they've shown their strength consistently, and particularly yesterday, and should be the next in if one of the four above falters.

3. If we had to rank right now, we'd go Bulldogs first, then the Crimson Tide, Seminoles, Horned Frogs, Ducks, Bears, and Buckeyes seventh.

4. Arizona St, Duke, and LSU are for real. While it's hard to picture them in the playoff at this point (especially the three-loss Bayou Bengals), they have shown doubters wrong throughout the season.

5. While they put up a battle yesterday after the outcome was decided, SMU is clearly #128 in the land. Which is such a shame, after all the work June Jones and others did to bring them back from literal extinction and the dregs where they've returned to. But as the only winless team in the FBS - and without anything even close to a win on their resume - we're forced to applaud effort at this stage, knowing they've no chance for competitiveness.  

You want chaos? Pat Forde'll show you chaos!

Copied straight from today's "Forde-Yard Dash" column: the method for a five way tie in the vaunted SEC West. He also details the situations in the Big Ten, the old Big East, the ACC and Mountain West; and then revisits twelve of the most devastating plays in CFB history (after the way that Treadwell broke his leg in losing the ball and the touchdown and the game for Ole Miss Saturday).

FIVE-WAY TIE IN THE SEC WEST? DARE TO DREAM

As an avowed sower of discord and champion of chaos, here is exactly what The Dash wants to see happen over the next four weeks:

LSU (7) wins out. The Tigers would finish 10-2 overall, 6-2 in the SEC, with victories over Alabama and Ole Miss and losses to Auburn and Mississippi State.

Alabama (8) loses Saturday in Baton Rouge, then wins out to finish 10-2 overall, 6-2 in the SEC. The Crimson Tide would have wins over Mississippi State and Auburn, and losses to Mississippi and LSU.

Auburn (9) defeats Georgia on Nov. 15, but loses to Alabama in the Iron Bowl to finish 10-2 overall, 6-2 in the SEC. The Tigers would have wins over LSU and Ole Miss, and losses to Mississippi State and Alabama.

Mississippi (10) regroups from the disastrous ending Saturday night to win out and finish 10-2 overall, 6-2 in the SEC. The Rebels would have wins over Alabama and Mississippi State, and losses to LSU and Auburn.

Mississippi State (11) finally falls, losing on the road to Alabama on Nov. 15 and in the Egg Bowl on Nov. 29, finishing 10-2 overall, 6-2 in the SEC. The Bulldogs would have wins over LSU and Auburn, and losses to Alabama and Ole Miss.

And there you’d have it: five teams with identical records, and all with 2-2 marks against each other. No massive upsets required the rest of the way, just a lot of teams defending home field. Let the SEC have fun with that tiebreaker.

By The Dash’s reading of the league’s guidelines, it could come down to the seventh tiebreaker: conference winning percentage of non-divisional opponents. As it stands today, these are your numbers there: Auburn 6-7 (Georgia and South Carolina); LSU 5-7 (Florida and Kentucky); Alabama 4-7 (Florida and Tennessee); Mississippi State 2-9 (Kentucky and Vanderbilt); Mississippi 1-9 (Tennessee and Vanderbilt).

If it somehow gets to the eighth tiebreaker? That’s a coin flip. And if it comes to that, the South may not survive.

Here’s what else might not survive: If the league has a two-loss champion, does it get a playoff bid?

Week 9 College Tiers - the Top Third (Tiers A through G)...

Thanks to the classic 35-31 SEC matchup in Oxford, there was one change in the Top Six, with a straight swap that moved Auburn into Tier A and Ole Miss down to Tier B with their second loss (they're still the highest of the two-loss teams, but consider their two losses!). 

Look also for movement upwards from K-State, Arizona St, Missouri, Wisconsin, Iowa, and UCLA; falls from Georgia (where's the rushing D?), Kentucky, and East Carolina in particular...

Tier A: 8-0 Florida St and Mississippi St, along with 7-1 Alabama, Auburn, Notre Dame (barely), and TCU (even more barely!).

Tier B: Besides 7-2 Ole Miss, five one-loss teams with "acceptable" losses and impressive wins fill out the knights-in-waiting: Baylor, Kansas St, Michigan St, Ohio St, Oregon.

Tier C: These are the "if bedlam strikes above us - and it's been known to happen" teams in terms of the CFP committee's four precious roses: Four Pac-12 teams (Arizona at 6-2, Arizona St at 7-1, USC at 6-3, and Utah at 6-2) sit alongside LSU (7-2) and Nebraska (8-1). Truth be told, this tier doesn't need all four Pac-12 teams, but none of the teams below them deserve to knock them out. Probably Arizona St is the only truly likely possibility to challenge, along with the Tigers and Huskers.

Tier D: Under the heading, "if hell freezes over", we look at these clubs in slots 19-24: 6-1 Duke, Georgia and Missouri from the SEC East (two losses each), 5-2 Oklahoma, 7-2 UCLA, and 6-2 Wisconsin, so much more impressive in recent weeks.

Tier E: A wild mixture sits just outside the top 24, ranging from 5-4 Kentucky to 8-0 Marshall (needless to say, the competition differs from C-USA to the SEC!). Also present are Clemson (6-2), the Mountain West's best, Colorado St (8-1), 7-2 Georgia Tech (who impressed yesterday against Virginia), and hard-luck West Virginia, whose three losses are to Alabama, Oklahoma, and TCU.

Tier F: Six six-win teams populate tier F - East Carolina, Iowa, Louisville, Maryland, Miami-FL, and Minnesota.

Tier G: Rounding off the upper 42 are 6-2 Boise St, 5-4 California-Berkeley, 5-4 Oklahoma St, and three more SEC teams with erratic records: Florida, South Carolina, and Texas A&M.