All Ten D1 Conferences Forecast for 2015!

Having completed our examination of the ten conferences in division one-A (five Power Five conferences and five Group of Five conferences), we came up with some suprising predictions, mostly because of when and where certain pairs of rivals happen to play each other. All position ties are broken by head to head results whenever possible. (For example, LSU should defeat Auburn.) We'll follow up with the overall records a bit later, but these are the in-conference records we project for the upcoming season:

SEC West: 1. Alabama (7-1, 11-1), 2. LSU (6-2, 10-2), 3. Auburn (6-2, 10-2), 4. Ole Miss (5-3, 9-3), 5. Texas A&M (4-4, 8-4), 6. Arkansas (2-6, 6-6), 7. Mississippi St (2-6, 6-6).
SEC East: 1. Georgia (6-2, 10-2), 2. Tennessee (6-2, 10-2), 3. Missouri (4-4, 8-4), 4. South Carolina (3-5, 6-6), 5. Kentucky (2-6, 5-7), 6. Florida (1-7, 4-8), 7. Vanderbilt (0-8, 3-9).
(Alabama def. Georgia for championship; CFP bound.)

PAC-12 North: 1. Oregon (8-1, 10-2), 2. Stanford (7-2, even beating UO!, 9-3), 3. California (3-6, 5-7), 4. Washington (2-7, 4-8), 5. Washington St (2-7, 4-8), 6. Oregon St (1-8, 3-9).
PAC-12 South: 1. UCLA (8-1, 11-1), 2. USC (7-2, 10-2), 3. Arizona St (6-3, 8-4), 4. Arizona (5-4, 8-4), 5. Utah (4-5, 6-6), 6. Colorado (0-9, 2-10).
(Oregon defeats UCLA for championship; CFP bound.)

BIG 12: 1. TCU (9-0, 11-1), 2. Baylor (8-1, 11-1), 3. Oklahoma (7-2, 9-3), 4. Texas (6-3, 8-4), 5. Oklahoma St (4-5, 7-5), 6. West Virginia (4-5, 7-5), 7. Kansas St (3-6, 6-6), 8. Texas Tech (2-7, 4-8), 9. Iowa St (1-8, 2-10) 10. Kansas (1-8, 2-10).
(TCU goes to CFP.)

BIG 10 East: 1. Ohio St (8-0, 12-0), 2. Michigan St (7-1, 11-1), 3. Penn St (6-2, 10-2), 4. Michigan (5-3, 9-3), 5. Indiana (2-6, 5-7), 6. Maryland (1-7, 4-8), 7. Rutgers (1-7, 5-7).
BIG 10 West: 1. Wisconsin (7-1, 10-2), 2. Minnesota (6-2, 10-2), 3. Nebraska (5-3, 7-5), 4. Iowa (4-4, 8-4), 5. Northwestern (2-6, 4-8), 6. Illinois (1-7, 4-8), 7. Purdue (0-8, 1-11).
(Ohio St defeats Wisconsin - again; CFP bound.)

ACC Atlantic: 1. Clemson (7-1, 11-1), 2. Florida St (6-2, 10-2), 3. North Carolina St (6-2, 10-2), 4. Louisville (5-3, 8-4), 5. Boston College (2-6, 4-8), 6. Syracuse (1-7, 4-8), 7. Wake Forest (0-8, 2-10).
ACC Coastal: 1. Virginia Tech (7-1, 10-2), 2. Georgia Tech (6-2, 8-4), 3. Duke (5-3, 9-3), 4. Miami-FL (4-4, 7-5), 5. North Carolina (4-4, 8-4), 6. Pitt (2-6, 4-8), 7. Virginia (0-8, 1-11).
(Clemson defeats Virginia Tech, but will be the odd team out of the CFP.)

Independents: Notre Dame (10-2), BYU (7-5), Army-West Point (6-6). 

American East: 1. Central Florida (7-1, 9-3), 2. East Carolina (6-2, 7-5), 3. Cincinnati (5-3, 8-4), 4. Temple (5-3, 7-5), 5. South Florida (2-6, 3-9), 6. U Conn (1-7, 2-10).
American West: 1. Houston (7-1, 10-2), 2. Memphis (6-2, 8-4), 3. Navy (5-3, 8-4), 4. SMU (2-6, 3-9), 5. Tulane (2-6, 4-8), 6. Tulsa (0-8, 2-10).
(Central Florida defeats Houston for championship.)

Mountain West MTN: 1. Boise St (8-0, 12-0), 2. Utah St (7-1, 8-4), 3. Colorado St (6-2, 9-3), 4. Air Force (5-3, 7-5), 5. Wyoming (2-6, 4-8), 6. New Mexico (1-7, 4-8).
Mountain West WST: 1. San Diego St (6-2, 7-5), 2. Nevada (5-3, 7-5). 3. San Jose St (3-5, 4-8), 4. Fresno St (3-5, 4-8), 5. UNLV 1-7, 2-10), 6. Hawai'i (1-7, 3-10).
(Boise St defeats San Diego St, qualifies for New Year's Six Bowls.)

Conf USA East: 1. Marshall (8-0, 12-0), 2. Western Kentucky (7-1, 9-3), 3. Middle Tennessee (5-3, 6-6), 4. Old Dominion (5-3, 8-4), 5. Florida International (3-5, 4-8), 6. Florida Atlantic (1-7, 2-10), 7. UNC-Charlotte (0-8, 1-11).
Conf USA West: 1. Louisiana Tech (7-1, 9-3), 2. Rice (6-2, 7-5), 3. UTEP (5-3, 6-6), 4. Southern Miss (3-5, 4-8), 5. North Texas (1-7, 2-10), 6. UTSA (1-7, 1-11).
(Marshall defeats LaTech, but strength of schedule keeps them from the New Year's Six.)

Mid-American West: 1. Toledo (7-1, 10-2), 2. Northern Illinois (7-1, 10-2), 3. Western Michigan (6-2, 7-5), 4. Ball St (6-2, 8-4), 5. Central Michigan (3-5, 4-8), 6. Eastern Michigan (0-8, 0-12).
Mid-American East: 1. Akron (7-1, 9-3), 2. Bowling Green (6-2, 8-4), 3. U Mass (4-4, 4-8), 4. Ohio (3-5, 5-7), 5. Kent St (3-5, 4-8), 6. Buffalo (1-7, 1-11), 7. Miami-OH (1-7, 1-11).
(Toledo defeats Akron for championship.)

Sun Belt: 1. Appalachian St (8-0, 10-2), 2t. Georgia Southern (7-1, 8-4), 2t. Arkansas St (7-1, 8-4), 4. UL-Lafayette (5-3, 6-6), 5. Texas St (5-3, 7-5), 6, South Alabama (4-4, 5-7), 7. New Mexico St (3-5, 4-8), 8. Troy (2-6, 3-9), 9. UL-Monroe (2-6, 3-9), 10. Idaho (1-7, 2-10), 11. Georgia St (0-8, 1-11).
(GASO and ArkSt do not play each other; the other ties do)

So, a few surprises even for us in our own predictions, once you really dig into the schedules and see who each team plays, and where, and when. I think the stand-out surprise to me was Army going 6-6 this year, but their schedule is paper-thin. Marshall going 12-0 startled me, until I realized their only difficult game will be Western KY, and they'll be SO pumped for revenge that we're betting they win that one, too. Toledo and Akron are NOT the two best teams in the MAC, but they're the two with the fewest losses looming on their schedules! (It all depends on your crossover opponents!). Minnesota going 10-2 may shock some, but their three hardest (non-OSU) games are at home. In defense of Oregon going over Clemson to the playoffs, even w/ two losses, it looks as though the four lions at the top of the Pac-12 (OU, Stanford, UCLA, USC) will loom as so dominant that it becomes inevitable that ONE of them (by definition, the champ) goes to the playoff, and after USC and UCLA decimate each other one Saturday, Oregon should pick off the survivor the next weekend. I honestly looked for scenarios where Alabama, Ohio St, and TCU didn't go to the playoffs, or where Boise didn't return to New Year's Day...but that's not likely.

Here's our predictions for the rest of the FBS conferences!

Having just posted our predictions for the Power Five conferences (the ACC, Big Ten, Big Twelve, Pac-12, and SEC), it's time to take a look at the other five conferences in the Bowl Subdivision - the American, Conference USA, the MAC, the Mountain West, and the Sun Belt Conference. Here we go!

The American Athletic Conference (formerly the Big East):
*Six teams will vie for the title, so the champ may have two or even three conf losses!
*In the West, Memphis looks the class, although Houston will host them on Nov 14 and could steal the division with a win there.
*Navy's joined a conference for the first time in their 135 years of football! Looking at 3rd...
*Tulane should beat Tulsa at home and lock up 4th, while SMU will be better than last year, even if it doesn't get them out of the basement.
*In the East, it's easier to start at the bottom: UConn 6th, and South Florida 5th.
*All four of the others should thrash each other into a 5-3 logjam! We'll wager on East Carolina 1st, Central Florida 2nd, and Cincinnati 3rd with Temple in 4th. But who knows?
*Given that, we'll take Memphis to win the title game.

Conference USA:
*The winner of the Marshall at Western Kentucky game wins the division and the title.
*As of this moment? We'll lean on the revenge factor and pick the Thundering Herd.
*Middle Tennessee heads a distant pack behind them in the East.
*Pencil in Old Dominion, FIU, FAU, and newcomer UNC-Charlotte in the 4/5/6/7 spots.
*Nobody in the West can punch with WKU or Marshall, but Louisiana Tech should get the chance.
*If not, it'll be Rice - they've developed a good system there.
*UTEP should be able to rise to third, and then it depends on some ball bounces: 
*We're thinking Southern Miss rises to 4th, North Texas 5th, and UTSA falls back to sixth.

Mid-American Conference (the MAC):
*They've marketed a marginal conference well - the Tuesday and Wednesday night games on ESPN, the "#MACtion" tweets, and all the exciting play from clever coaches. 
*The power division here is the West, where by throwing their names in a hat I came up with:
*Northern Illinois winning the division (most experience winning).
*Toledo 2nd, Western Michigan fighting a tough schedule for third, and Ball St in 4th.
*Central Michigan is an easy 5th place pick, because the top 4 are significantly better, and...
*Eastern Michigan is conceivably the worst team in football, at least this year in the FBS.
*In the East, Bowling Green is the class of the division (though they'll lose the title game).
*Only Terry Bowden's Akron has a shot to dethrone them, with Frank Solich's Ohio team in third. 
*Four bad teams round out the MAC-East: U-Mass (bad), Buffalo (bad), Kent St (really bad), and Miami of Ohio (so bad Miami-FL makes them distinguish that they are not the same school). 

Mountain West conference:
* This year, it should be Boise State and the eleven dwarves, but that remains to be proven. 
*Boise's rating numbers are so far above everyone else's that they should be 8-0 in conference, with only a tough out-of-conf schedule to manage. If they goes 3-1 there, they should be playing in a major bowl again. 
*Utah St figures to give them the best battle, although they've hit some rocky stretches here.
*CSU, Air Force, Wyoming, and New Mexico round out the Mountain division, in that order.
*In the West, six mediocre teams fight for the division title, with San Diego St looking like the best candidate for the job,
*Nevada's coming up on the rail for 2nd, and Fresno St's struggling this off-season. 
*San Jose may still be 4th, but not for lack of trying. Meanwhile, Hawaii will put some wins on the home field, and UNLV won't.

Sun Belt Conference:
*I know - this should've been in yellow...but Appalachian St and Georgia Southern are the 1-2 teams here...Only the two of them, plus maybe 3rd place Arkansas St and maybe 4th place Louisiana Lafayette would have a chance to win even one game in any other conference. Even the MAC or Conf-USA!
*Texas State is the best of the rest, and should be able to pull off a .500 or better record in league.
*After that, it's turtles all the way down. 
*Depending on how South Alabama takes to its 10-15 new players who were with UAB last year before their one year hiatus, they could be as high as sixth (maybe fifth?). Or UL-Monroe will slide from 7th up to 6th...
*Below that are four of the five Bottom Five teams to start the season (most likely): Troy in 8th; New Mexica St (9th), Idaho (10th), and Georgia State (11th).

So, to recap - the Bottom Five would be Troy,  NMSU, the Vandals, Georgia State, and Eastern Michigan, along with their intern, newbie Charlotte from the C-USA. (If we're counting Army as a non-Power conference team, then the Cadets from West Point will be in that Bottom mix as well.) Boise State should repeat as the Power of Five rep in the New Year's Six bowl games, and the conference champs will include Appalachian State, Northern Illinois, Marshall, and Memphis.

Some great mid-major (and above) thoughts from "Fan-Sided"

Here are a couple of posts from the college football section of SI's FanSided, including one listing five schools who are not only ready to move up but additionally NEED to move up to a Power Five conference ASAP...a short clip about the contract extension for Boise State's head coach, but the real news is that little ol' Boise is giving its DC and OC three-year, million dollar contracts, something unheard of just a few years ago...and an interesting analysis of five schools who turn the two and three star recruits into five star players because of their coaching, style, consistency, and methods.

Comparing the final rankings...

It's always interesting to compare opinions, especially when the entire point of sports is to enjoy the competition between your guys and their guys and in doing so, comparing the two teams - and in the context of an entire season, comparing your guys to a slough of "their guys" and deciding how far up the ladder your guys are. (Ladies: "guys" is meant as a unisex term here.)

So, with that in mind, here's a list based on the Following Football #1-128 tiered ranking system that includes the final poll from the AP writers, the Sagaring rating system (if you need a primer in the Sagarin system, let me know!), the Massey Index (which compares and compiles 91 different computer and human ranking systems and then provides us with (for lack of a better term) a 'consensus' result), and the Superlist, which combines the six known meta-lists and gives us a different kind of consensus!

(The Sagarin rating and rank are in red simply to make the two connect visually better. The actual Sagarin rankings include the FCS teams: Eastern Michigan is really #208 in the country, out of 252! Also, the letters on the Massey rankings are tiers, just like FF uses: while these come from our hand, they're denoting the natural breaks in the totals - where there's a big gap between schools and where the groupings are.)

				Final		Final	Final	Final
Final			Final	Sagarin		Massey	Superlist	AP
Ranking	Team	Conf	Record	rating		Ranking	Ranking	rank
A1	Ohio St	b10	14-1	100.81	1	A1	1	1
A2	Oregon	pac	13-2	95.71	4	A2	2	2
A3	Alabama	sec	12-2	96.83	3	A3	3	4
A4	Florida St	acc	13-1	84.86	16	B7	6	5T
A5	TCU	b12	12-1	99.58	2	A4	4	3
B06	Michigan St	b10	11-2	93.36	6	B+5	5	5T
B07	Baylor	b12	11-2	90.57	7	B8	8	7
B08	Georgia Tech	acc	11-3	87.42	12	C09	11	8
B09	Mississippi St	sec	10-3	89.19	9	C12	14	11
B10	Georgia	sec	10-3	95.13	5	B6	7	9
B11	UCLA	pac	10-3	84.71	17	C11	9	10
C12	Ole Miss	sec	9-4	89.82	8	C10	10	17
C13	Missouri	sec	11-3	85.06	15	D13	13	14
C14	Kansas St	b12	9-4	84.48	19	E20	24	18
C15	Clemson	acc	10-3	87.03	13	D15	12	15
C16	Wisconsin	b10	11-3	83.48	21	D14	15	13
C17	Auburn	sec	8-5	88.40	11	E16	17	22
D18	Boise St	mw	12-2	77.43	36	E17	19	16
D19	Arizona St	pac	10-3	81.96	25	E19	16	12
D20	USC	pac	9-4	84.19	20	E18	18	20
D21	Arizona	pac	10-4	77.76	33	E22	20	19
D22	LSU	sec	8-5	85.53	14	F25	26
D23	Utah	pac	9-4	82.75	23	F26	23	21
E24	Texas A&M	sec	8-5	82.82	22	G29	27
E25	Stanford	pac	8-5	84.61	18	F24	22
E26	Arkansas	sec	7-6	88.48	10	F23	21
E27	Nebraska	b10	9-4	81.09	29	G28	30
E28	Oklahoma	b12	8-5	81.47	27	G30	31
E29	Louisville	acc	9-4	80.60	30	G27	28	24
E30	Marshall	cusa	13-1	82.36	24	E21	25	23
E31	Notre Dame	ind	8-5	79.83	31	H+32	32
E32	Minnesota	b10	8-5	76.17	37	H34	35
E33	Duke	acc	9-4	74.99	41	I40	40
F34	Florida	sec	7-5	81.48	26	H+31	29
F35	South Carolina	sec	7-6	77.56	35	I39	38
F36	Colorado St	mw	10-3	69.51	60	I38	37
F37	Memphis	aac	10-3	76.11	38	H33	34	25
G38	West Virginia	b12	7-6	78.53	32	I+36	36
G39	Washington	pac	8-6	74.34	43	J+43	39
G40	Cincinnati	aac	8-4	71.48	55	J46	53
G41	Miami-FL	acc	6-7	75.08	40	K49	51
G42	Utah St	mw	10-4	72.70	49	J+41	45
H43	North Carolina St	acc	8-5	73.21	45	J+42	42
H44	Maryland	b10	7-6	72.39	52	K54	48
H45	Tennessee	sec	7-6	81.39	28	H35	33
H46	Northern Illinois	mac	11-3	68.08	65	K53	54
H47	Rutgers	b10	8-5	70.53	59	J47	41
H48	Penn St	b10	7-6	73.55	44	K55	49
H49	Air Force	mw	10-3	67.79	69	J45	47
I50	Texas	b12	6-7	72.42	51	K51	52
I51	Oklahoma St	b12	7-6	72.46	50	K50	44
I52	Iowa	b10	7-6	73.13	46	L+57	56
I53	Boston College	acc	7-6	74.36	42	J48	50
I54	Kentucky	sec	5-7	73.04	47	M70	64
J55	Central Florida	aac	9-4	71.18	56	K56	61
J56	East Carolina	aac	8-5	69.44	62	L62	69
J57	BYU	ind	8-5	71.61	53	K52	55
J58	Louisiana Tech	cusa	9-5	77.57	34	I37	46
J59	Virginia Tech	acc	7-6	75.30	39	J44	43
J60	Navy	ind	8-5	68.05	66	L+58	57
K61	North Carolina	acc	6-7	67.60	70	M69	63
K62	Georgia Southern	sun	9-3	69.47	61	L59	62
K63	UL-Lafayette	sun	9-4	66.68	71	M66	67
K64	Western Kentucky	cusa	8-5	66.24	73	L64	70
Final			Final	Sagarin		Massey	Superlist
Ranking	Team	Conf	Record	rating		Ranking	Ranking
K65	California	pac	5-7	71.55	54	M65	58
K66	Oregon St	pac	5-7	66.05	75	N76	71
K67	Michigan	b10	5-7	70.70	58	L63	59
L68	Western Michigan	mac	8-5	64.84	80	N75	78
L69	Houston	aac	8-5	67.89	68	M-71	75
L70	Pitt	acc	6-7	70.86	57	M68	72
L71	Illinois	b10	6-7	65.10	77	N+73	73
L72	Nevada	mw	7-6	64.28	81	N+74	74
L73	Toledo	mac	9-4	68.01	67	L61	65
M74	Texas Tech	b12	4-8	66.48	72	O+78	77
M75	Virginia	acc	5-7	72.79	48	L60	60
M76	Rice	cusa	8-5	68.39	64	M67	66
M77	San Diego St	mw	7-6	64.12	82	N-77	79
M78	Northwestern	b10	5-7	69.29	63	M-72	68
N79	Temple	aac	6-6	65.00	79	O81	83
N80	Bowling Green	mac	8-6	57.13	98	P89	90
N81	Arkansas St	sun	7-6	65.04	78	P+83	86
N82	Central Michigan	mac	7-6	62.07	87	P86	88
O83	Fresno St	mw	6-8	59.13	92	P88	85
O84	UTEP	cusa	7-6	61.44	89	O82	80
O85	UAB	cusa	6-6	65.30	76	O+79	82
O86	Washington St	pac	3-9	66.18	74	O80	76
O87	Texas St	sun	7-5	58.75	93	P90	92
O88	Appalachian St	sun	7-5	61.82	88	P87	95
O89	Kansas	b12	3-9	58.31	94	Q95	91
O90	Syracuse	acc	3-9	62.97	84	P91	87
O91	South Alabama	sun	6-7	55.89	104	Q96	98
P92	Purdue	b10	4-8	62.34	86	Q94	94
P93	Ohio	mac	6-6	54.80	107	R099	104
P94	Middle Tennessee	cusa	6-6	60.79	91	P+84	84
P95	Colorado	pac	2-10	62.93	85	Q+93	93
P96	Iowa St	b12	2-10	61.38	90	R+97	96
Q097	UL-Monroe	sun	4-8	55.96	103	S107	108
Q098	Ball St	mac	5-7	57.68	96	R102	105
Q099	Wyoming	mw	4-8	56.46	102	R098	97
Q100	Buffalo	mac	5-6	53.54	110	S108	114
Q101	Wake Forest	acc	3-9	56.50	101	S+103	102
Q102	Indiana	b10	3-9	64.04	83	P+85	81
R103	Hawai'i	mw	4-9	56.78	100	S106	101
R104	Old Dominion	cusa	6-6	58.08	95	Q+92	89
R105	South Florida	aac	4-8	52.68	114	S109	110
R106	New Mexico	mw	4-8	55.18	105	R101	99
R107	Vanderbilt	sec	3-9	57.14	97	R100	100
R108	FIU	cusa	4-8	56.99	99	S104	106
S109	Florida Atlantic	cusa	3-9	53.75	109	T+112	111
S110	Akron	mac	5-7	54.86	106	S110	112
S111	Tulane	aac	3-9	53.29	112	T+111	107
S112	Army	ind	4-8	51.59	117	T116	116
S113	North Texas	cusa	4-8	52.95	113	T115	113
S114	Southern Miss	cusa	3-9	53.54	111	T113	115
T115	San Jose St	mw	3-9	52.04	115	T114	109
T116	UT-San Antonio	sun	4-7	54.31	108	S105	103
T117	Miami-OH	mac	2-10	50.26	118	U120	121
T118	Troy	sun	3-9	46.10	123	U122	122
T119	Tulsa	aac	2-10	48.43	119	U118	118
T120	UNLV	mw	2-11	46.94	121	U121	119
U121	Kent St	mac	2-9	47.47	120	U119	120
U122	U Massachusetts	mac	3-9	51.69	116	U117	117
U123	U Conn	aac	2-10	44.70	125	V+123	123
U124	Idaho	sun	1-10	46.66	122	V125	127
U125	Eastern Michigan	mac	2-10	38.77	128	V126	126
U126	SMU	aac	1-11	39.15	127	V124	124
V127	New Mexico St	sun	2-10	45.20	124	V127	125
V128	Georgia St	sun	1-11	41.00	126	V-128	128

A few interesting things to notice:  Yes, Ohio State gets #1 in all systems, but not really unanimously. TCU actually had the highest Sagarin rating by two full points before the Buckeye beatdown on Oregon's finest...Florida State's position is as uncertain as ever: we still have them fourth, since we had them top four and in the playoff before it started; but some organizations drop them out of the top four, and in fact their rankings range from 4 down to 16!...Michigan State's in the top six in every system. Big month for the B1G!...Lotta love for Marshall in the final analysis - top 25 in all set-ups except ours...Also hard to believe the last place team in a division could be in the top 25, but Arkansas' annihilation of Texas and the last few games of their season is pushing their stock up into the high twenties!...Florida, Tennessee, Virginia Tech, and Louisiana Tech are all getting much higher rankings from all of the other systems than we gave them: I guess we're going to have to take another look, aren't we?...Certain combinations you tend to look for automatically, right? Nebraska finished ahead of Oklahoma across the board; Michigan is generally ahead of their directional schools, especially up-and-coming Western Michigan...Speaking of Broncos, how about Boise State, carrying the banner for the small programs once again - the first non-power conference team to win three BCS/New Year's Six games (only one to PLAY in that many, too!)...If this really was Alabama-Birmingham's last year of football, they fared commendably: 6-6, with every ranking between 76 and 85....The dis-honor of the lowest Power Conference team goes to Wake Forest, although within the FF rankings, Vanderbilt fell below the Demon Deacons....And, as always, the Bottom Twelve or so are set in concrete, with virtually identical membership from all four rating systems (Army gets its nose in twelfth from the bottom on the Sagarin scale) - Miami - OH, Troy, Tulsa, UNLV, Kent St, UMass, UConn, Idaho, Eastern Michigane, SMU, New Mexico St, and last place holder, Georgia St. A lack of sincerity in our congratulations to ALL of you!