It occurs that we told you the consensus choices other pundits as far as the upcoming NFL season goes, but you've not gotten the benefit of the wisdom of the proven leader in prognostication - Following Football!
So, here are our division projections:
AFC)
EAST: 1) New England. 2) Miami. Close 3) Buffalo. Distant 4) New York Jets.
NORTH: 1) Baltimore by two full games. 2) Pittsburgh. 3) Cincinnati. 4) Vacant. 5) Cleveland.
SOUTH: 1) Indianapolis. 2, closer than you think) Houston. 3, farther than they'd like) Jax. 4) Tennessee.
WEST: All four teams will have at least six wins AND losses... 1) Denver. 2) San Diego. 3) Kansas City. 4) Oakland, all within four games.
NFC)
EAST: 1) Philadelphia IF Sam Bradford is one of the 10-12 best QBs in the league; otherwise Dallas. 2) figure it out... 3) New York Giants. 4 with a stone) Washington.
NORTH: 1) Green Bay. 2) Minnesota. 3) Detroit.
SOUTH: 1) Vacant. 2) Carolina, reluctantly. 3) New Orleans and Atlanta (tie). 4) Tampa Bay.
WEST: 1) Seattle. 2) Arizona. 3) St. Louis. 4) San Francisco.
4) Chicago. (Not a typo.)
PLAYOFFS: AFC seed 3 Baltimore def. seed 6 Houston...seed 5 Pittsburgh def. seed 4 Denver. NFC seed 3 Philadelphia def. seed 6 Arizona...seed 5 Dallas def. seed 4 Carolina.
AFC seed 1 New England def. seed 5 Pittsburgh...seed 3 Baltimore def. seed 2 Indianapolis. NFC seed 1 Green Bay def. seed 5 Dallas...seed 2 Seattle def. seed 3 Philadelphia.
AFC Championship: New England def. Baltimore...NFC Championship: Green Bay def. Seattle.
SUPER BOWL: Green Bay and Cal Berkeley grad Aaron Rodgers def. New England and Bay Area product Tom Brady in Super Bowl 50 in Santa Clara, CA.
Showing posts with label Cardinals. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cardinals. Show all posts
Sunday, September 13, 2015
Monday, January 5, 2015
Bill Barnwell on THAT CALL yesterday...
Grantland's Bill Barnwell covers the ridiculously reversed PI
call that turned the Dallas/Detroit game around in the fourth quarter yesterday, as
well as the poor concussion protocol of the Pittsburgh coaching staff and the sad situations in Cincinnati and Arizona resulting
from the injuries to their receivers and quarterbacks, respectively. His
opinions are basically the same as mine, and he articulates them better...
Sunday, January 4, 2015
The NFL playoffs have begun!
Sunday 5:47 pm
Redemption! DeMarco Lawrence made up for his earlier mistake, sacking Matthew Stafford on fourth down to win the game for the Cowboys, as Romo kneels to make it a 24-20 victory over Detroit.
For Following Football fans, we nailed both of today's games, and lost both of yesterday's. (Apologies for never getting to publish it. Those of you insiders know why things behind the scene at FF have been off-kilter for a couple of weeks.) We had Pittsburgh over Baltimore by five (the line was 3.5, closer than we were); Arizona even with Carolina (the line was 6.5 Carolina's way, obviously on track); Indianapolis by five over Cincinnati (favored by four, and they won by 16); and Dallas by four, which is what they just won by (they were seven point favorites). So we went 2-2, which puts our pro record for the actual blog site at 13-20, with two washes.
Sunday 5:40 pm
You're up four, two minutes to go, and the other team fumbles right into your hands. If you're anyone except Dallas' DeMarcus Lawrence, don't you just fall on the ball and let your offense run out the clock? The former Boise State player (sigh...), however, wanted to do something more - what, glorious? - and tried to juke people in front of him, whereupon he also fumbled the ball, right back into Lion hands, thereby providing the visitors a chance to return to their drive with a legit chance to win the game (now down four with a minute to go).
Sunday 3:14 pm
Aaaaaaaaaand there it is! Reggie Bush runs around a great block by WR Golden Tate on an 18-yard run to the corner of the end zone to complete the 99.9 yard touchdown drive. It took seven-plus minutes and 15 plays, along with that penalty on 4th down, but the Lions are now 2 for 2 on drives, while Dallas is 0-2.... ESPN says that's the first 99-yard drive in the playoffs since 2001.
Sunday 3:04 pm
Great first TD by the Detroit Lions to go up 7-0 early, lucky punt roll for Dallas that (combined with a Lions penalty) put the visitors on literally the few-inch line. But thanks to a running into the punter penalty in the end zone, the Lions are now on what could end up becoming an epic 99.8 yard drive if they can keep it going past midfield!
Sunday 2:20 pm
Cincinnati just had NO chance today against Indianapolis, or anyone else, for that matter. Too many receivers gone, no weapons for Andy Dalton to use whatsoever. Yes, he's now ohfer four, but don't hold this one against HIM. (For that matter, both of yesterday's losers, the Steelers and the Cardinals, were victims of MAJOR injuries that were the direct cause of their failures on offense.) Not sure the Colts have the weapons to run with the Broncos, but at least they're going to have a shot next week, where the Bengals wouldn't.
Saturday 9:02 pm
The most likely "upsets" of a home team were in the two games today - Baltimore's playoff experience and Arizona's sub-.500 opponent made them that way - and it's looking like we'll get one for two, as Terrell Suggs' interception between his thighs led to a Flacco TD pass which puts the Ravens up 30-15 with half a quarter to go. The lack of a run threat for Pittsburgh will cost them a playoff run, it seems...
Saturday 7:52 pm
Baltimore up 10-9 on Pittsburgh in a classic Northeast brawl, and their secondary's holding up so far! The Steelers are dealing well without LeVeon Bell to this point, too.
To finish up the 27-16 Carolina victory: they held Arizona to a playoff record low 78 yards of offense, and it can't help but bring to mind what the Cardinal radio team brought up as the end was in sight: "When we look back at this season, we won't be able to help wondering what might have been." Given their injury list, including multiple quarterbacks, we won't be able to help agreeing with them. Carolina made enough mistakes that we suspect Carson Palmer could have exploited successfully...for that matter, they wouldn't have been 11-5, either.
And for the record book: Teams under .500 entering the playoffs are now 2-0 in their playoff openers...
Saturday 5:23 pm
Listening to Mel Kiper is usually entertaining - to his credit, he's always brutally honest. On ESPN radio this morning, he offers that there were two teams going into the playoffs he knew he would pick against when the playoffs came: Arizona and Carolina. Imagine his disappointment when they ended up playing each other...and as the game continues, he was right. Neither team should win; neither team deserves a playoff win.
According to our tiered rankings for Week 17, the Cardinals should have been favored, but that doesn't account for the rise of the Panthers in the last few weeks and the fifth string quarterback Arizona's been forced to use now. It probably shouldn't be a surprise that Carolina's up 27-14 in the fourth quarter and en route to a defeat next round in the cold of either Washington or Wisconsin...
Redemption! DeMarco Lawrence made up for his earlier mistake, sacking Matthew Stafford on fourth down to win the game for the Cowboys, as Romo kneels to make it a 24-20 victory over Detroit.
For Following Football fans, we nailed both of today's games, and lost both of yesterday's. (Apologies for never getting to publish it. Those of you insiders know why things behind the scene at FF have been off-kilter for a couple of weeks.) We had Pittsburgh over Baltimore by five (the line was 3.5, closer than we were); Arizona even with Carolina (the line was 6.5 Carolina's way, obviously on track); Indianapolis by five over Cincinnati (favored by four, and they won by 16); and Dallas by four, which is what they just won by (they were seven point favorites). So we went 2-2, which puts our pro record for the actual blog site at 13-20, with two washes.
Sunday 5:40 pm
You're up four, two minutes to go, and the other team fumbles right into your hands. If you're anyone except Dallas' DeMarcus Lawrence, don't you just fall on the ball and let your offense run out the clock? The former Boise State player (sigh...), however, wanted to do something more - what, glorious? - and tried to juke people in front of him, whereupon he also fumbled the ball, right back into Lion hands, thereby providing the visitors a chance to return to their drive with a legit chance to win the game (now down four with a minute to go).
Sunday 3:14 pm
Aaaaaaaaaand there it is! Reggie Bush runs around a great block by WR Golden Tate on an 18-yard run to the corner of the end zone to complete the 99.9 yard touchdown drive. It took seven-plus minutes and 15 plays, along with that penalty on 4th down, but the Lions are now 2 for 2 on drives, while Dallas is 0-2.... ESPN says that's the first 99-yard drive in the playoffs since 2001.
Sunday 3:04 pm
Great first TD by the Detroit Lions to go up 7-0 early, lucky punt roll for Dallas that (combined with a Lions penalty) put the visitors on literally the few-inch line. But thanks to a running into the punter penalty in the end zone, the Lions are now on what could end up becoming an epic 99.8 yard drive if they can keep it going past midfield!
Sunday 2:20 pm
Cincinnati just had NO chance today against Indianapolis, or anyone else, for that matter. Too many receivers gone, no weapons for Andy Dalton to use whatsoever. Yes, he's now ohfer four, but don't hold this one against HIM. (For that matter, both of yesterday's losers, the Steelers and the Cardinals, were victims of MAJOR injuries that were the direct cause of their failures on offense.) Not sure the Colts have the weapons to run with the Broncos, but at least they're going to have a shot next week, where the Bengals wouldn't.
Saturday 9:02 pm
The most likely "upsets" of a home team were in the two games today - Baltimore's playoff experience and Arizona's sub-.500 opponent made them that way - and it's looking like we'll get one for two, as Terrell Suggs' interception between his thighs led to a Flacco TD pass which puts the Ravens up 30-15 with half a quarter to go. The lack of a run threat for Pittsburgh will cost them a playoff run, it seems...
Saturday 7:52 pm
Baltimore up 10-9 on Pittsburgh in a classic Northeast brawl, and their secondary's holding up so far! The Steelers are dealing well without LeVeon Bell to this point, too.
To finish up the 27-16 Carolina victory: they held Arizona to a playoff record low 78 yards of offense, and it can't help but bring to mind what the Cardinal radio team brought up as the end was in sight: "When we look back at this season, we won't be able to help wondering what might have been." Given their injury list, including multiple quarterbacks, we won't be able to help agreeing with them. Carolina made enough mistakes that we suspect Carson Palmer could have exploited successfully...for that matter, they wouldn't have been 11-5, either.
And for the record book: Teams under .500 entering the playoffs are now 2-0 in their playoff openers...
Saturday 5:23 pm
Listening to Mel Kiper is usually entertaining - to his credit, he's always brutally honest. On ESPN radio this morning, he offers that there were two teams going into the playoffs he knew he would pick against when the playoffs came: Arizona and Carolina. Imagine his disappointment when they ended up playing each other...and as the game continues, he was right. Neither team should win; neither team deserves a playoff win.
According to our tiered rankings for Week 17, the Cardinals should have been favored, but that doesn't account for the rise of the Panthers in the last few weeks and the fifth string quarterback Arizona's been forced to use now. It probably shouldn't be a surprise that Carolina's up 27-14 in the fourth quarter and en route to a defeat next round in the cold of either Washington or Wisconsin...
Saturday, January 3, 2015
Did we forget to publish our season end NFL Tiers?
WOW! CAN'T BELIEVE THAT!
So, that's embarassing enough, but even more so because when you look at these rankings and tiers and compare them with the records, you'll think we just looked at the RECORDS and ranked them in that order. We swear! That's not how it happened!
We really did sort the teams first, looking at how they performed in week 17 and adjusted their previous tiers accordingly, and THEN looked up the records. To our chagrin...
Picking NFL playoff games is a fairly straightforward crapshoot. Chalk always says, pick the home team in the first round. (The tiers say take Arizona over Carolina, though. Not sure our guts agree.) In the second round ALWAYS take the home team with the bye to rest up. After that...good luck!!
Regardless, here are our season-end tiers with rankings from 1-32:
A - 1. Seattle (12-4, 10-2 in conference, 5-1 in division games, 7-1 at home)
2. New England (12-4, 9-3, 4-2, 7-1)
3. Green Bay (12-4, 9-3, 5-1, 8-0)
4. Denver (12-4, 10-2, 6-0, 8-0)
5. Dallas (12-4, 8-4, 4-2, 4-4)
These five teams all have the tools to win it all. Hard to imagine Dallas going to both Wisconsin AND Washington and winning twice, though.
B - 6. Detroit (11-5, 9-3, 5-1, 7-1)
7. Pittsburgh (11-5, 9-3, 4-2, 6-2)
8. Indianapolis (11-5, 9-3, 6-0, 6-2)
These three teams have a chance, but they're flawed teams that are going to have to have exceptional runs from other segments of the team to make up for those flaws to win it all.
C - 9. Arizona (11-5, 8-4, 3-3, 7-1)
10. Baltimore (10-6, 6-6, 3-3, 6-2)
11. Cincinnati (10-5-1, 7-5, 3-3, 5-2-1)
12. Philadelphia (10-6, 6-6, 4-2, 6-2)
They're all four good teams, deserving of playoff spots, but we just can't see them overcoming their seedings to make it to the Super Bowl. (Especially the Eagles. Duh.)
D - 13. San Diego (9-7, 6-6, 2-4, 5-3)
14. Buffalo (9-7, 5-7, 4-2, 5-3)
15. Kansas City (9-7, 7-5, 3-3, 6-2)
16. Miami (8-8, 6-6, 3-3, 4-4)
17. San Francisco (8-8, 7-5, 2-4, 4-4)
18. Houston (9-7, 8-4, 4-2, 5-3)
19. Carolina (7-8-1, 6-6, 4-2, 4-4)
All good seasons, but not good enough (unless you play in the NFC South). Still, nothing to be ashamed of. It's interesting to watch mid-tier teams' reactions to a season like this, whether it becomes "something they can build on" or "there are things we need to improve on next year" or (in one case) "Hey, Michigan? Ya want him?"
E - 20. St. Louis (6-10, 4-8, 2-4, 3-5)
21. New Orleans (7-9, 6-6, 3-3, 3-5)
22. Cleveland (7-9, 4-8, 2-4, 4-4)
23. New York Giants (6-10, 4-8, 2-4, 3-5)
24. Minnesota (7-9, 6-6, 1-5, 5-3)
F - 25. Atlanta (6-10, 6-6, 5-1, 3-5)
Each of these teams has things that they can build on for next year, although watching Carolina's demolition of the Falcons on Sunday makes it hard to find anything beyond Matt Ryan in Atlanta; hence the separate tiering for the now coachless Falcon club.
G - 26. Chicago (5-11, 4-8, 1-5, 2-6)
27. Washington (4-12, 2-10, 2-4, 3-5)
28. New York Jets (4-12, 4-8, 1-5, 2-6)
29. Oakland (3-13, 2-10, 1-5, 3-5)
We're not big fans of the instinctive "fire the coach" reactions, but SOMETHING has to change for each of these teams. Coach, key players, owners, SOMETHING.
H - 30. Jacksonville (3-13, 2-10, 1-5, 3-5)
31. Tampa Bay (2-14, 1-11, 0-6, 0-8)
32. Tennessee (2-14, 2-10, 1-5, 1-7)
If there were somewhere to relegate these teams to - a "minor league" besides the FBS - we'd send these three teams there in a heartbeat. (Hey! They're all in SEC country! I wonder...) Besides, Florida doesn't really need three pro teams. Send one to LA and one to London.
So, that's embarassing enough, but even more so because when you look at these rankings and tiers and compare them with the records, you'll think we just looked at the RECORDS and ranked them in that order. We swear! That's not how it happened!
We really did sort the teams first, looking at how they performed in week 17 and adjusted their previous tiers accordingly, and THEN looked up the records. To our chagrin...
Picking NFL playoff games is a fairly straightforward crapshoot. Chalk always says, pick the home team in the first round. (The tiers say take Arizona over Carolina, though. Not sure our guts agree.) In the second round ALWAYS take the home team with the bye to rest up. After that...good luck!!
Regardless, here are our season-end tiers with rankings from 1-32:
A - 1. Seattle (12-4, 10-2 in conference, 5-1 in division games, 7-1 at home)
2. New England (12-4, 9-3, 4-2, 7-1)
3. Green Bay (12-4, 9-3, 5-1, 8-0)
4. Denver (12-4, 10-2, 6-0, 8-0)
5. Dallas (12-4, 8-4, 4-2, 4-4)
These five teams all have the tools to win it all. Hard to imagine Dallas going to both Wisconsin AND Washington and winning twice, though.
B - 6. Detroit (11-5, 9-3, 5-1, 7-1)
7. Pittsburgh (11-5, 9-3, 4-2, 6-2)
8. Indianapolis (11-5, 9-3, 6-0, 6-2)
These three teams have a chance, but they're flawed teams that are going to have to have exceptional runs from other segments of the team to make up for those flaws to win it all.
C - 9. Arizona (11-5, 8-4, 3-3, 7-1)
10. Baltimore (10-6, 6-6, 3-3, 6-2)
11. Cincinnati (10-5-1, 7-5, 3-3, 5-2-1)
12. Philadelphia (10-6, 6-6, 4-2, 6-2)
They're all four good teams, deserving of playoff spots, but we just can't see them overcoming their seedings to make it to the Super Bowl. (Especially the Eagles. Duh.)
D - 13. San Diego (9-7, 6-6, 2-4, 5-3)
14. Buffalo (9-7, 5-7, 4-2, 5-3)
15. Kansas City (9-7, 7-5, 3-3, 6-2)
16. Miami (8-8, 6-6, 3-3, 4-4)
17. San Francisco (8-8, 7-5, 2-4, 4-4)
18. Houston (9-7, 8-4, 4-2, 5-3)
19. Carolina (7-8-1, 6-6, 4-2, 4-4)
All good seasons, but not good enough (unless you play in the NFC South). Still, nothing to be ashamed of. It's interesting to watch mid-tier teams' reactions to a season like this, whether it becomes "something they can build on" or "there are things we need to improve on next year" or (in one case) "Hey, Michigan? Ya want him?"
E - 20. St. Louis (6-10, 4-8, 2-4, 3-5)
21. New Orleans (7-9, 6-6, 3-3, 3-5)
22. Cleveland (7-9, 4-8, 2-4, 4-4)
23. New York Giants (6-10, 4-8, 2-4, 3-5)
24. Minnesota (7-9, 6-6, 1-5, 5-3)
F - 25. Atlanta (6-10, 6-6, 5-1, 3-5)
Each of these teams has things that they can build on for next year, although watching Carolina's demolition of the Falcons on Sunday makes it hard to find anything beyond Matt Ryan in Atlanta; hence the separate tiering for the now coachless Falcon club.
G - 26. Chicago (5-11, 4-8, 1-5, 2-6)
27. Washington (4-12, 2-10, 2-4, 3-5)
28. New York Jets (4-12, 4-8, 1-5, 2-6)
29. Oakland (3-13, 2-10, 1-5, 3-5)
We're not big fans of the instinctive "fire the coach" reactions, but SOMETHING has to change for each of these teams. Coach, key players, owners, SOMETHING.
H - 30. Jacksonville (3-13, 2-10, 1-5, 3-5)
31. Tampa Bay (2-14, 1-11, 0-6, 0-8)
32. Tennessee (2-14, 2-10, 1-5, 1-7)
If there were somewhere to relegate these teams to - a "minor league" besides the FBS - we'd send these three teams there in a heartbeat. (Hey! They're all in SEC country! I wonder...) Besides, Florida doesn't really need three pro teams. Send one to LA and one to London.
Sunday, December 28, 2014
The first ever FOLLOWING FOOTBALL NFL All-League TEAM!
We're going to take a shot at this All-League team business (since everyone else does!). Unlike MOST such endeavors, we're trying something that sounds simply ridiculous on the surface...we refused to name our team until the regular season ENDS! None of this "2 games to go" stuff for us! It's All-League for the 2014 SEASON...and the season didn't end until Sunday! (We have similar semantic complaints for not calling it the "first annual"...it's not annual until we do it again next year!) Please understand, this goes against our anti-fantasy football mindset...but there are indeed certain players that stand out above their peers.
Okay, so, here goes!
Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay.
As much as we love Peyton around here, Rodgers has yet to throw an interception in Wisconsin this year! Only one of his interceptions (out of a whopping five) was arguably his fault: four of the five hit his receiver's hands first. He has done more with less for years, this year no exception.
Running Backs: DeMarco Murray, Dallas / Marshawn Lynch, Seattle
It's the year of the DeMarco - we would've liked to see him hit 2000, but in a pass-happy league, 1900? is a pretty amazing feat! As for Marshawn, anyone who won't put up with the insufferability of the press is cool with us! After the back breaking run against Arizona in week 16, it was hard to give it to anyone else.
Wideouts: Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh / Dez Bryant, Dallas
Brown led all receivers by something like twenty catches in 2014, but even so he never looked as dominant as Bryant looked on occasion, especially against the poor overmatched Colts secondary a couple weeks back. (Although his last game against the Bengals looked DANGED impressive...)
Tight End: Rob Gronkowski, New England
Hard not to give it to one of the old guard; Antonio Gates, for example, or Vernon Davis.. But Gronk has been too critical to the Patriots' success this year. He leads all tight ends in yardage by a wide margin, and is tied for total catches with 82.
Offensive Line: Dallas Cowboys
This should absolutely be a team unit award. Following Football recognizes the unit which works together the most effectively, and no unit was as good as the Cowboys, especially during the first half of the year.
Defensive Tackle: Ndamukong Suh, Detroit / Terrence Knighton, Denver
We know it would be easier to pick more DEs and call them all front liners, but the DT is just as crucial to the success of the defense, if not as spectacular. Suh really is that spectacular, though, when he's behaving himself (unlike Sunday) and not costing his team penalty yards or himself fine money. Knighton has clogged up the middle for the deceptively good Bronco D all year.
Defensive End: JJ Watt, Houston / Calais Campbell, Arizona
Watt has been insanely spectacular this year. He led the league in just about every category - sack yardage, QB hits, blah, blah, blah... - besides catching passes, running back both a fumble and an interception, selling popcorn at halftime, and God only knows what else. Bill Simmons once said that the only thing that could've made his season any better is throwing a touchdown pass...and that's coming. The Arizona Cardinals have had one of the great defenses all season, and Campbell is one of the primary reasons why. Our other choices here, Mario Williams in Buffalo and Cameron Wake in Miami, would have been just as qualified: Campbell's recognition is as much for Arizona's defense as a team as for his own talents on the field.
Linebackers: Luke Kuechly, Carolina / Justin Houston, Kansas City / DeAndre Levy, Detroit
Kuechly never heard the rule about not supposing to be as big a numbers guy in the pros as in the ACC. Houston merely set the Chiefs record for sacks, leading the league with 22 (beating even Watt this year, and the second highest all time!). Levy played solidly all season, and particularly towards the end of the year.
Safeties: Earl Thomas, Seattle / Patrick Peterson, Arizona
All right, technically Peterson is probably a cornerback, but what we love about his game is his ability to hit as well as cover, not to mention his kick return talents, and so we're getting him on our field one way or another. Thomas, however, is a pure safety who's as good as they get, year after year.
Cornerbacks: Richard Sherman, Seattle / Darrell Revis, New England
Rarely have two such defenders existed the same season, where no sane QB throws to their side regardless of which favorite receiver of his is running patterns with that DB. But neither Sherman nor Revis were successfully challenged all season, really.
Placekicker: Matt Bryant, Atlanta
Perfect on extra points, 28 of 31 on field goals with all three misses past 50 yards long (and he made seven of those, the most in the league), and a complete kicker.
Punter: Sam Koch, Baltimore
Second in gross average, his inside 20s/touchback ratio of 9 to 1 is outstanding, and very few returners actually ran back punts (and rarely for distance, averaging less than seven YPR).
Return specialist: Darren Sproles, Philadelphia.
It's tempting to give Devon Hester a career-achievement award here, but he didn't have the year Sproles did in his new home in Philly, where he almost single-handedly kept them afloat when the offense struggled this year.
Head coach: Pete Carroll, Seattle
What the former USC escapee has done in Seattle is downright amazing: defense AND offense are clicking, and the sheer ability to avoid the usual post-Super Bowl deflation (the major cause of the slow start this year was injuries, not SBD) needs to be recognized!
Notable exclusions: QB - Tom Brady, New England; Russell Wilson, Seattle; Tony Romo, Dallas; Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh. RB - LeVeon Bell, Pittsburgh; Arian Foster, Houston; LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia; CJ Anderson, Denver; Jamaal Charles, Kansas City. WR - AJ Green, Cincinnati; Odelle Beckham, Jr., NY Giants; Julio Jones, Atlanta. TE - Julius Thomas, Denver; Jimmy Graham, New Orleans. OL - Seattle; DE - Mario Williams, Buffalo; Cameron Wake, Miami, DeMarcus Ware, Denver. LB - LaVonte David, Tampa Bay. S - Charles Woodson, Oakland; Glover Quin, Detroit. CB - Aqib Talib, Denver; Vontae Davis, Indianapolis. PK - Adam Viniteri, Indianapolis; HC - Bill Belechick, New England, Bruce Arians, Arizona; Jim Caldwell, Detroit.
TOTAL Recognitions by team: SEATTLE, 4 (6 counting exclusions), DALLAS, 3 (4 counting exclusions), NEW ENGLAND 2 (4), DETROIT 2 (4), ARIZONA 2 (3), DENVER 1 (5), PITTSBURGH 1 (3), PHILADELPHIA 1 (2), ATLANTA 1 (2), HOUSTON 1 (2), KANSAS CITY 1 (2), BALTIMORE 1 (1), GREEN BAY 1 (1), CAROLINA 1 (1), INDIANAPOLIS 0 (2), CINCINNATI 0 (1), BUFFALO 0 (1), TAMPA BAY 0 (1), NY GIANTS 0 (1), NEW ORLEANS 0 (1), MIAMI 0 (1), OAKLAND 0 (1). None from NY Jets, Cleveland, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Washington, San Francisco, St. Louis, Minnesota, Chicago, or San Diego (although it killed us to leave Rivers off).
Okay, so, here goes!
Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay.
As much as we love Peyton around here, Rodgers has yet to throw an interception in Wisconsin this year! Only one of his interceptions (out of a whopping five) was arguably his fault: four of the five hit his receiver's hands first. He has done more with less for years, this year no exception.
Running Backs: DeMarco Murray, Dallas / Marshawn Lynch, Seattle
It's the year of the DeMarco - we would've liked to see him hit 2000, but in a pass-happy league, 1900? is a pretty amazing feat! As for Marshawn, anyone who won't put up with the insufferability of the press is cool with us! After the back breaking run against Arizona in week 16, it was hard to give it to anyone else.
Wideouts: Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh / Dez Bryant, Dallas
Brown led all receivers by something like twenty catches in 2014, but even so he never looked as dominant as Bryant looked on occasion, especially against the poor overmatched Colts secondary a couple weeks back. (Although his last game against the Bengals looked DANGED impressive...)
Tight End: Rob Gronkowski, New England
Hard not to give it to one of the old guard; Antonio Gates, for example, or Vernon Davis.. But Gronk has been too critical to the Patriots' success this year. He leads all tight ends in yardage by a wide margin, and is tied for total catches with 82.
Offensive Line: Dallas Cowboys
This should absolutely be a team unit award. Following Football recognizes the unit which works together the most effectively, and no unit was as good as the Cowboys, especially during the first half of the year.
Defensive Tackle: Ndamukong Suh, Detroit / Terrence Knighton, Denver
We know it would be easier to pick more DEs and call them all front liners, but the DT is just as crucial to the success of the defense, if not as spectacular. Suh really is that spectacular, though, when he's behaving himself (unlike Sunday) and not costing his team penalty yards or himself fine money. Knighton has clogged up the middle for the deceptively good Bronco D all year.
Defensive End: JJ Watt, Houston / Calais Campbell, Arizona
Watt has been insanely spectacular this year. He led the league in just about every category - sack yardage, QB hits, blah, blah, blah... - besides catching passes, running back both a fumble and an interception, selling popcorn at halftime, and God only knows what else. Bill Simmons once said that the only thing that could've made his season any better is throwing a touchdown pass...and that's coming. The Arizona Cardinals have had one of the great defenses all season, and Campbell is one of the primary reasons why. Our other choices here, Mario Williams in Buffalo and Cameron Wake in Miami, would have been just as qualified: Campbell's recognition is as much for Arizona's defense as a team as for his own talents on the field.
Linebackers: Luke Kuechly, Carolina / Justin Houston, Kansas City / DeAndre Levy, Detroit
Kuechly never heard the rule about not supposing to be as big a numbers guy in the pros as in the ACC. Houston merely set the Chiefs record for sacks, leading the league with 22 (beating even Watt this year, and the second highest all time!). Levy played solidly all season, and particularly towards the end of the year.
Safeties: Earl Thomas, Seattle / Patrick Peterson, Arizona
All right, technically Peterson is probably a cornerback, but what we love about his game is his ability to hit as well as cover, not to mention his kick return talents, and so we're getting him on our field one way or another. Thomas, however, is a pure safety who's as good as they get, year after year.
Cornerbacks: Richard Sherman, Seattle / Darrell Revis, New England
Rarely have two such defenders existed the same season, where no sane QB throws to their side regardless of which favorite receiver of his is running patterns with that DB. But neither Sherman nor Revis were successfully challenged all season, really.
Placekicker: Matt Bryant, Atlanta
Perfect on extra points, 28 of 31 on field goals with all three misses past 50 yards long (and he made seven of those, the most in the league), and a complete kicker.
Punter: Sam Koch, Baltimore
Second in gross average, his inside 20s/touchback ratio of 9 to 1 is outstanding, and very few returners actually ran back punts (and rarely for distance, averaging less than seven YPR).
Return specialist: Darren Sproles, Philadelphia.
It's tempting to give Devon Hester a career-achievement award here, but he didn't have the year Sproles did in his new home in Philly, where he almost single-handedly kept them afloat when the offense struggled this year.
Head coach: Pete Carroll, Seattle
What the former USC escapee has done in Seattle is downright amazing: defense AND offense are clicking, and the sheer ability to avoid the usual post-Super Bowl deflation (the major cause of the slow start this year was injuries, not SBD) needs to be recognized!
Notable exclusions: QB - Tom Brady, New England; Russell Wilson, Seattle; Tony Romo, Dallas; Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh. RB - LeVeon Bell, Pittsburgh; Arian Foster, Houston; LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia; CJ Anderson, Denver; Jamaal Charles, Kansas City. WR - AJ Green, Cincinnati; Odelle Beckham, Jr., NY Giants; Julio Jones, Atlanta. TE - Julius Thomas, Denver; Jimmy Graham, New Orleans. OL - Seattle; DE - Mario Williams, Buffalo; Cameron Wake, Miami, DeMarcus Ware, Denver. LB - LaVonte David, Tampa Bay. S - Charles Woodson, Oakland; Glover Quin, Detroit. CB - Aqib Talib, Denver; Vontae Davis, Indianapolis. PK - Adam Viniteri, Indianapolis; HC - Bill Belechick, New England, Bruce Arians, Arizona; Jim Caldwell, Detroit.
TOTAL Recognitions by team: SEATTLE, 4 (6 counting exclusions), DALLAS, 3 (4 counting exclusions), NEW ENGLAND 2 (4), DETROIT 2 (4), ARIZONA 2 (3), DENVER 1 (5), PITTSBURGH 1 (3), PHILADELPHIA 1 (2), ATLANTA 1 (2), HOUSTON 1 (2), KANSAS CITY 1 (2), BALTIMORE 1 (1), GREEN BAY 1 (1), CAROLINA 1 (1), INDIANAPOLIS 0 (2), CINCINNATI 0 (1), BUFFALO 0 (1), TAMPA BAY 0 (1), NY GIANTS 0 (1), NEW ORLEANS 0 (1), MIAMI 0 (1), OAKLAND 0 (1). None from NY Jets, Cleveland, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Washington, San Francisco, St. Louis, Minnesota, Chicago, or San Diego (although it killed us to leave Rivers off).
Tuesday, December 16, 2014
NFL predictions for the penultimate Week 16!
(There's your "word of the day" - "penultimate"! The one before the 'ultimate', the second to last. Use it in conversation once today!)
Here are the predictions for the sixteen games played on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday this week in the National Football League, from four sources: Following Football's tiered rankings, Sagarin ratings, the Vegas casino consensus, AND the "Elo rating system" from the website Five-Thirty-Eight, run by the quasi-legendary Nate Silver. Elo has been used in chess for decades, maybe centuries; and it's just now developing a following in other activities. It's actually very simple, and it's the basis for Following Football's Australian Rules Footy ranking system introduced last week: When you beat a team, your rating goes UP and theirs goes DOWN by exactly the same amount. How MUCH depends on how your ratings compared to begin with: if you beat a team you're "supposed" to beat, it won't change very much, but if it's an upset, the change will be more radical. [Word to the prudent: I'm estimating the change factors for this week because 538 hasn't published its actual predictions for Week 16 as of Tuesday; I will update this post when they do so, probably Thursday afternoon.]
So, here's Week 16!
THUR FF Tiers Vegas line Sagarin Elo Ratings
Tennessee @ Jacksonville Jax -3 Jax -3 Jax - 3.0 Jax - 1.0
SAT
Philadelphia @ Washington Phi -7 Phi -9 Phi - 9.3 Phi - 7.5
San Diego @ San Francisco EVEN SF - 2 SD - 0.7 SF - 2.0
SUN
Minnesota @ Miami Mia -5 Mia -7 Mia -8.1 Mia -4.0
Baltimore @ Houston HOU -1 BAL - 6 BAL -1.2 Bal -2.5
Detroit @ Chicago Det -5 Det -7 Det - 4.0 Det -2.5
Cleveland @ Carolina Car - 1 Car - 4 Car - 1.0 Car - 4.0
Atlanta @ New Orleans NO - 2 NO - 6.5 NO -3.1 NO - 3.0
Green Bay @ Tampa Bay GB -11 GB - 10.5 GB - 11.3 GB - 8.0
Kansas City @ Pittsburgh Pit -4.5 Pit - 3.5 KC - 1.9 Pit - 3.0
New England @ New York Jets NE -10.5 NE -10.5 NE -15.2 NE - 10.5
New York Giants @ St. Louis StL - 6.5 StL -5 StL - 5.9 StL -4.5
Buffalo @ Oakland Buf - 5 Buf -6 Buf - 9.3 Buf -3.5
Indianapolis @ Dallas Dal -1 Dal -3 Indy -1.1 Dal -1.0
Seattle @ Arizona Ariz -2 Sea -9 Ariz -0.6 Sea -2.0
MON
Devner @ Cincinnati Den - 1 Den - 3.5 Den -5.4 Den -2.5
So, a couple of observations...
The three games that we'll put on the "betting block" this week are (as noted above) Baltimore at Houston (we like the Texans at home; Vegas thinks it's the Ravens all the way, with the computers backing them to a slight degree - we'll claim the point if the game goes into overtime or Houston wins outright), San Diego at San Francisco (we've always believed that Vegas loves the 49ers because of all the Northern CA money that comes across the Sierras to bet on them - again, if SD wins or there's OT, we'll claim the point), and the defacto NFC West title game, Seattle at Arizona (HUGE discrepancy here - Sagarin agrees with us that the Cardinals are the favorites at home; Elo agrees with Vegas that the defenders should be favored. We'll take Seattle -2.5 as the tipping point; anything above that is Vegas' point.).
Sagarin's ratings differ from all other projections in four other Sunday games, marked above: they seem to have a fetish for Kansas City (preferring them IN Pittsburgh!), New England (fifteen points in an NFL game is HUGE!), Buffalo (we love the Bills' defense, too, but Oakland ALWAYS plays strong!), and Indianapolis (to be fair and honest, we didn't give Dallas their supposed "home field advantage this week, because they're 3-4 at home and 7-0 on the road this year!). Or maybe it's that they don't like their opponents (Pittsburgh, the Jets, Oakland, and Dallas)? It'll be interesting to see. Notice that the Elo ratings never seem to deviate TOO far from the norms.
Our record so far this year is down to 35-33-3, indicative of sheer guesswork. But I feel comfortable with our "guesswork" this year, and we'll continue to refine the system so it'll work everywhere (except maybe in the NFL, where parity is mandated!) We were actually ahead 3-1 last week after Saturday, but we lost all three of the PRO games, including last night's smashing of the Bears by the resurgent (for the moment) Saints. [By the way, with the win, the Saints move into the theoretical driver's seat with the wretched NFC South; they can (and should) win out to win the division at 8-8!]
Here are the predictions for the sixteen games played on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday this week in the National Football League, from four sources: Following Football's tiered rankings, Sagarin ratings, the Vegas casino consensus, AND the "Elo rating system" from the website Five-Thirty-Eight, run by the quasi-legendary Nate Silver. Elo has been used in chess for decades, maybe centuries; and it's just now developing a following in other activities. It's actually very simple, and it's the basis for Following Football's Australian Rules Footy ranking system introduced last week: When you beat a team, your rating goes UP and theirs goes DOWN by exactly the same amount. How MUCH depends on how your ratings compared to begin with: if you beat a team you're "supposed" to beat, it won't change very much, but if it's an upset, the change will be more radical. [Word to the prudent: I'm estimating the change factors for this week because 538 hasn't published its actual predictions for Week 16 as of Tuesday; I will update this post when they do so, probably Thursday afternoon.]
So, here's Week 16!
THUR FF Tiers Vegas line Sagarin Elo Ratings
Tennessee @ Jacksonville Jax -3 Jax -3 Jax - 3.0 Jax - 1.0
SAT
Philadelphia @ Washington Phi -7 Phi -9 Phi - 9.3 Phi - 7.5
San Diego @ San Francisco EVEN SF - 2 SD - 0.7 SF - 2.0
SUN
Minnesota @ Miami Mia -5 Mia -7 Mia -8.1 Mia -4.0
Baltimore @ Houston HOU -1 BAL - 6 BAL -1.2 Bal -2.5
Detroit @ Chicago Det -5 Det -7 Det - 4.0 Det -2.5
Cleveland @ Carolina Car - 1 Car - 4 Car - 1.0 Car - 4.0
Atlanta @ New Orleans NO - 2 NO - 6.5 NO -3.1 NO - 3.0
Green Bay @ Tampa Bay GB -11 GB - 10.5 GB - 11.3 GB - 8.0
Kansas City @ Pittsburgh Pit -4.5 Pit - 3.5 KC - 1.9 Pit - 3.0
New England @ New York Jets NE -10.5 NE -10.5 NE -15.2 NE - 10.5
New York Giants @ St. Louis StL - 6.5 StL -5 StL - 5.9 StL -4.5
Buffalo @ Oakland Buf - 5 Buf -6 Buf - 9.3 Buf -3.5
Indianapolis @ Dallas Dal -1 Dal -3 Indy -1.1 Dal -1.0
Seattle @ Arizona Ariz -2 Sea -9 Ariz -0.6 Sea -2.0
MON
Devner @ Cincinnati Den - 1 Den - 3.5 Den -5.4 Den -2.5
So, a couple of observations...
The three games that we'll put on the "betting block" this week are (as noted above) Baltimore at Houston (we like the Texans at home; Vegas thinks it's the Ravens all the way, with the computers backing them to a slight degree - we'll claim the point if the game goes into overtime or Houston wins outright), San Diego at San Francisco (we've always believed that Vegas loves the 49ers because of all the Northern CA money that comes across the Sierras to bet on them - again, if SD wins or there's OT, we'll claim the point), and the defacto NFC West title game, Seattle at Arizona (HUGE discrepancy here - Sagarin agrees with us that the Cardinals are the favorites at home; Elo agrees with Vegas that the defenders should be favored. We'll take Seattle -2.5 as the tipping point; anything above that is Vegas' point.).
Sagarin's ratings differ from all other projections in four other Sunday games, marked above: they seem to have a fetish for Kansas City (preferring them IN Pittsburgh!), New England (fifteen points in an NFL game is HUGE!), Buffalo (we love the Bills' defense, too, but Oakland ALWAYS plays strong!), and Indianapolis (to be fair and honest, we didn't give Dallas their supposed "home field advantage this week, because they're 3-4 at home and 7-0 on the road this year!). Or maybe it's that they don't like their opponents (Pittsburgh, the Jets, Oakland, and Dallas)? It'll be interesting to see. Notice that the Elo ratings never seem to deviate TOO far from the norms.
Our record so far this year is down to 35-33-3, indicative of sheer guesswork. But I feel comfortable with our "guesswork" this year, and we'll continue to refine the system so it'll work everywhere (except maybe in the NFL, where parity is mandated!) We were actually ahead 3-1 last week after Saturday, but we lost all three of the PRO games, including last night's smashing of the Bears by the resurgent (for the moment) Saints. [By the way, with the win, the Saints move into the theoretical driver's seat with the wretched NFC South; they can (and should) win out to win the division at 8-8!]
Monday, December 15, 2014
SO...who will make the NFL playoffs?
With two weeks left in the season, we're still only down to about twenty teams who can still be one of the twelve playoff teams! Eleven AFC teams are still eligible for the tournament, although three spots were clinched yesterday (division champs Denver, Indianapolis, and New England). Meanwhile, six teams fight for five spots in the NFC, plus the one team who will eventually "win" the NFC Southern division out of three candidates still vying for the spot.
Projecting the likely winners of the Week 16 & 17 games from the Following Football tiers, we have predictions of those playoff teams:
NFC: East - Philadelphia (win at Wash, win at NYG) = 11-5-0
Dallas (loss v. Indy, win at Wash) = 11-5-0
North - Green Bay (win at Tampa, win v. Det) = 12-4-0
Detroit (win at Chic, loss at Green Bay) = 11-5-0
South - New Orleans (loss tonight at Chic, win v Atl, win at TB) = 7-9-0
Carolina (win v. Cleveland, loss at Atlanta) = 6-9-1
Atlanta (loss at New Orleans, win v Carolina) = 6-10-0
West - Arizona (win v Seattle, win at SF) = 13-3-0
Seattle (loss at Ariz, win v. StL) = 11-5-0
NFC PLAYOFF TEAMS:
#1 seed = Arizona (13-3)
#2 seed = Green Bay (12-4)
#3 seed = Philadelphia (11-5) [better div record than Dallas]
#4 seed = New Orleans (7-9)
#5 seed = Detroit (11-5) [better conf. record than Dallas or Seattle]
#6 seed = Dallas (11-5) [def. Seattle head-to-head]
...and Seattle's out of the playoffs...
AFC: East - *New England (win at NYJ, win v. Buff) = 13-3-0
Miami (win v. Minn, win v. NYJ) = 9-7-0
Buffalo (win at Oak, loss at NE) = 9-7-0
North - Pittsburgh (win v KC, win v. Cinc) = 11-5-0
Baltimore (loss at Hous, win v Clev) = 10-6-0
Cincinnati (loss v Denv, loss at Pitt) = 9-6-1
Cleveland (loss at Carol, loss at Balt) = 7-9-0
South - *Indianapolis (win at Dal, win at Ten) = 12-4-0
Houston (win v Balt, win v. Jax) = 9-7-0
West - *Denver (win at Cinc, win v Oak) = 13-3-0
Kansas City (loss at Pitt, win v SD) = 9-7-0
San Diego (loss at SF, loss at KC) = 8-8-0
AFC PLAYOFF TEAMS:
#1 seed = New England (13-3) [def. Denver head to head]
#2 seed = Denver (13-3)
#3 seed = Indianapolis (12-4)
#4 seed = Pittsburgh (11-5)
#5 seed = Baltimore (10-6)
#6 seed = Cincinnati (9-6-1)
...alas, no up-n-comers (Miami, Buffalo, Houston, KC all 9-7; that tie keeps the Bengals in the playoffs after all!)...
Our forecast beyond that? Anything goes. "We predict that one of those twelve teams will win the Super Bowl!" That's the most we'll commit to in a one-game knockout tournament where the #6 seed has won as often as the #1 seeds have!
Projecting the likely winners of the Week 16 & 17 games from the Following Football tiers, we have predictions of those playoff teams:
NFC: East - Philadelphia (win at Wash, win at NYG) = 11-5-0
Dallas (loss v. Indy, win at Wash) = 11-5-0
North - Green Bay (win at Tampa, win v. Det) = 12-4-0
Detroit (win at Chic, loss at Green Bay) = 11-5-0
South - New Orleans (loss tonight at Chic, win v Atl, win at TB) = 7-9-0
Carolina (win v. Cleveland, loss at Atlanta) = 6-9-1
Atlanta (loss at New Orleans, win v Carolina) = 6-10-0
West - Arizona (win v Seattle, win at SF) = 13-3-0
Seattle (loss at Ariz, win v. StL) = 11-5-0
NFC PLAYOFF TEAMS:
#1 seed = Arizona (13-3)
#2 seed = Green Bay (12-4)
#3 seed = Philadelphia (11-5) [better div record than Dallas]
#4 seed = New Orleans (7-9)
#5 seed = Detroit (11-5) [better conf. record than Dallas or Seattle]
#6 seed = Dallas (11-5) [def. Seattle head-to-head]
...and Seattle's out of the playoffs...
AFC: East - *New England (win at NYJ, win v. Buff) = 13-3-0
Miami (win v. Minn, win v. NYJ) = 9-7-0
Buffalo (win at Oak, loss at NE) = 9-7-0
North - Pittsburgh (win v KC, win v. Cinc) = 11-5-0
Baltimore (loss at Hous, win v Clev) = 10-6-0
Cincinnati (loss v Denv, loss at Pitt) = 9-6-1
Cleveland (loss at Carol, loss at Balt) = 7-9-0
South - *Indianapolis (win at Dal, win at Ten) = 12-4-0
Houston (win v Balt, win v. Jax) = 9-7-0
West - *Denver (win at Cinc, win v Oak) = 13-3-0
Kansas City (loss at Pitt, win v SD) = 9-7-0
San Diego (loss at SF, loss at KC) = 8-8-0
AFC PLAYOFF TEAMS:
#1 seed = New England (13-3) [def. Denver head to head]
#2 seed = Denver (13-3)
#3 seed = Indianapolis (12-4)
#4 seed = Pittsburgh (11-5)
#5 seed = Baltimore (10-6)
#6 seed = Cincinnati (9-6-1)
...alas, no up-n-comers (Miami, Buffalo, Houston, KC all 9-7; that tie keeps the Bengals in the playoffs after all!)...
Our forecast beyond that? Anything goes. "We predict that one of those twelve teams will win the Super Bowl!" That's the most we'll commit to in a one-game knockout tournament where the #6 seed has won as often as the #1 seeds have!
Sunday, December 14, 2014
PREDICTIONS for Week 15!
Here we go! After a break-even week during the last regular season week of FBS games (although, remember that to our credit, we don't just have to be on the correct side of the line - we have to be closer to the actual result than Vegas was! Much harder to do!), we strive to call the quarter finals for the FCS playoffs and Week 15 of the NFL season...
[By the way, overall during these past five weeks since we've had the full Following Football ranking and rating system in place, we've gone 32-29 overall against Vegas' predictions, with three draws. Feelin' purdy guud 'bout thay-at!]
THURSDAY
Arizona @ St. Louis - Sagarin and FF both have Arizona winning this game (we say Cardinals by three; Sagarin ratings say 1.7); while Vegas is picking the surging Rams to win by 4.5 points. Winning team takes the point. And that winner is US! Arizona won the defensive battle 12-6, won game number 11, and proved that for this team, like other defensive powerhouses in the past (see: Ravens, Baltimore), it doesn't matter who's at quarterback.
FRIDAY
Chattanooga @ New Hampshire - we all think Chattanooga by 1-2 points. All of us were wrong - New Hampshire 35-30.
SATURDAY
Navy @ Army (actually a fairly neutral site game in Maryland) - Vegas, the Sagarin ratings, and Following Football are all picking the Naval Academy to win by 12-18 points. Navy took most of the first half to get going, so the margin of victory was only seven, 17-10. But it made for a good game!
FCS Quarterfinals - We differ with Sagarin on all of these (casinos don't set lines on FCS games)...North Dakota St over Coastal Carolina, but we say it'll be close (7 points) while the computer says it's 16.5 points NDSU's way. Cut off is halfway (below 12)...We pick Sam Houston St to beat Villanova on the road by 3; Sagarin says it's a tossup (technically, Villanova by "0.02 points"!) We'll take any SHSU victory as our point...Finally, some northwest pride: Sagarin chooses Illinois St by 8 over Eastern Washington in Cheney; we don't think they'll survive the fire-red turf and are picking EWU to win. Winner of the game or overtime, we get the point. NDSU by exactly seven! Sam Houston by exactly three! Eastern Washington by... Um, bye-bye, actually. Lost, 59-46, so that point goes to Vegas, but otherwise it's FF 3, Vegas 1!
SUNDAY
Only the games where we disagree somehow... hmmm....on most of these, we're all three pretty close (within three points)...Pittsburgh by 1-3 - by seven, 27-20...New England by 7.5 to 9 - more like 41-13, Brady!...Kansas City by 9-10 (Sagarin's a little higher), and so was reality: 31-6, KC, getting revenge for three weeks ago...Indianapolis by 7-8 - exactly right: 17-10 Colts...Baltimore by 13-14 (again, Sagarin's a bit higher on these big-spread games) Ravens by 8, 20-12...Green Bay by 5-6 - Buffalo's defense stifles GB with style, wins 21-13...Carolina by 6-7 (with Cam Newton questionable, we're surprised we still agree) - actually, TB stayed close, losing 19-17...Cincinnati/Cleveland is within a point either way (and it depends on how you count a first-time starting QB for the Browns) Cincy 30-0 over Manziel. Coaching error to start him, in our opinion...Denver by 2-4 - won by 12...Detroit by 8-9 - won by two...Seattle by 10-11 - on the nose!...Philadelphia by 3.5 to 5 - a landmark win for the Cowboys!
Two games we disagree on - we have the Giants over Washington by 3.5; Vegas says it's 7. Split the difference and say five is the tipping point - Whoops; casinos were right here; margin was eleven...and we actually think Tennessee will beat the Jets by 1; the casinos are saying New Jersey by 2. (Sagarin kinda agrees with us; Titans by "0.3"...) Winner takes the point. And that turned out to be the casinos when the Jets pulled one out of the fire with a 16-11 victory. We're all tired up! FF 3, Vegas 3! It will all depend on the Saints and Bears! Can't remember the last time we actively rooted for Chicago, but here's goes! Rah! Rah! Sis boom bah!
MONDAY
We REALLY disagree here! - The casinos argue New Orleans will win by 3; we agree with Sagarin that the Bears should be 2.5 point favorites. Winner takes the point! AARGH! Saints win. We lose, 4-3. Bah, humbug. Da Bears looked "turrible" Monday night.... Don't know what you DO about the QB situation there, with Cutler contracted through another few years.
So, in the end we have a total of seven games to wage war on - three FCS playoffs, one NFL game Thursday night, two Sunday afternoon, and one more on Monday night. Hello! My name is Inigo Montoya. You tied me on predictions last week. Prepare to die...
[By the way, overall during these past five weeks since we've had the full Following Football ranking and rating system in place, we've gone 32-29 overall against Vegas' predictions, with three draws. Feelin' purdy guud 'bout thay-at!]
THURSDAY
Arizona @ St. Louis - Sagarin and FF both have Arizona winning this game (we say Cardinals by three; Sagarin ratings say 1.7); while Vegas is picking the surging Rams to win by 4.5 points. Winning team takes the point. And that winner is US! Arizona won the defensive battle 12-6, won game number 11, and proved that for this team, like other defensive powerhouses in the past (see: Ravens, Baltimore), it doesn't matter who's at quarterback.
FRIDAY
Chattanooga @ New Hampshire - we all think Chattanooga by 1-2 points. All of us were wrong - New Hampshire 35-30.
SATURDAY
Navy @ Army (actually a fairly neutral site game in Maryland) - Vegas, the Sagarin ratings, and Following Football are all picking the Naval Academy to win by 12-18 points. Navy took most of the first half to get going, so the margin of victory was only seven, 17-10. But it made for a good game!
FCS Quarterfinals - We differ with Sagarin on all of these (casinos don't set lines on FCS games)...North Dakota St over Coastal Carolina, but we say it'll be close (7 points) while the computer says it's 16.5 points NDSU's way. Cut off is halfway (below 12)...We pick Sam Houston St to beat Villanova on the road by 3; Sagarin says it's a tossup (technically, Villanova by "0.02 points"!) We'll take any SHSU victory as our point...Finally, some northwest pride: Sagarin chooses Illinois St by 8 over Eastern Washington in Cheney; we don't think they'll survive the fire-red turf and are picking EWU to win. Winner of the game or overtime, we get the point. NDSU by exactly seven! Sam Houston by exactly three! Eastern Washington by... Um, bye-bye, actually. Lost, 59-46, so that point goes to Vegas, but otherwise it's FF 3, Vegas 1!
SUNDAY
Only the games where we disagree somehow... hmmm....on most of these, we're all three pretty close (within three points)...Pittsburgh by 1-3 - by seven, 27-20...New England by 7.5 to 9 - more like 41-13, Brady!...Kansas City by 9-10 (Sagarin's a little higher), and so was reality: 31-6, KC, getting revenge for three weeks ago...Indianapolis by 7-8 - exactly right: 17-10 Colts...Baltimore by 13-14 (again, Sagarin's a bit higher on these big-spread games) Ravens by 8, 20-12...Green Bay by 5-6 - Buffalo's defense stifles GB with style, wins 21-13...Carolina by 6-7 (with Cam Newton questionable, we're surprised we still agree) - actually, TB stayed close, losing 19-17...Cincinnati/Cleveland is within a point either way (and it depends on how you count a first-time starting QB for the Browns) Cincy 30-0 over Manziel. Coaching error to start him, in our opinion...Denver by 2-4 - won by 12...Detroit by 8-9 - won by two...Seattle by 10-11 - on the nose!...Philadelphia by 3.5 to 5 - a landmark win for the Cowboys!
Two games we disagree on - we have the Giants over Washington by 3.5; Vegas says it's 7. Split the difference and say five is the tipping point - Whoops; casinos were right here; margin was eleven...and we actually think Tennessee will beat the Jets by 1; the casinos are saying New Jersey by 2. (Sagarin kinda agrees with us; Titans by "0.3"...) Winner takes the point. And that turned out to be the casinos when the Jets pulled one out of the fire with a 16-11 victory. We're all tired up! FF 3, Vegas 3! It will all depend on the Saints and Bears! Can't remember the last time we actively rooted for Chicago, but here's goes! Rah! Rah! Sis boom bah!
MONDAY
We REALLY disagree here! - The casinos argue New Orleans will win by 3; we agree with Sagarin that the Bears should be 2.5 point favorites. Winner takes the point! AARGH! Saints win. We lose, 4-3. Bah, humbug. Da Bears looked "turrible" Monday night.... Don't know what you DO about the QB situation there, with Cutler contracted through another few years.
So, in the end we have a total of seven games to wage war on - three FCS playoffs, one NFL game Thursday night, two Sunday afternoon, and one more on Monday night. Hello! My name is Inigo Montoya. You tied me on predictions last week. Prepare to die...
Saturday, December 13, 2014
So...who will the NFL's Most Valuable be?
And...how do you define what that is? "Most Valuable" to whom: the team? The league? History? The coffers of the NFL?
So, let's start the conversation with THIS definition: the MVP is the player who contributes the most to his particular team's success on the field that specific year. Not "how spectacular are they?" Not "most popular". Not "award for a career's body of work", not the most surprising, and certainly not the highest selling jerseys, either. Finally, it should be the player who ADDS the most to the win total of his team: a great player whose team would go 16-0 without him adds NO value to his team, while a great player whose team STILL can't win a game also adds NO value to his team in our criteria.
Got it? Good! Here's our short list of whom to consider...
J.J. Watt, Houston. No, he's not going to win, and he probably shouldn't win. But he's probably singlehandedly won at least two games for the Texans with his two-way play, and deserves the credit he gets and then some.
Tom Brady, New England. A very viable candidate because without him, the Pats would be toast. This isn't the team that Matt Cassell could step in and go 11-5 with; a Bradyless New England is third in the division.
Andrew Luck, Indianapolis. See above.
Peyton Manning, Denver. See above, except that he has so much talent on both sides of the ball this year that it's arguable that even HE isn't indispensable this year.
Russell Wilson, Seattle. A different situation than Luck or Brady: The Seahawks DO have the talent to win with most quarterbacks, but it's Wilson's leadership as much as his throwing or running ability that transform Seattle from a contender into a Super Bowl champ and (increasingly) likely repeat champ.
DeMarco Murray, Dallas. His season will indubitably be the top by a running back this year, but it's the theory of play Jason Garrett has for the Cowboys this year - don't let Romo or the defense lose the game; let the running game win it - that has Murray in the hunt.
Chip Kelly, Philadelphia. Don't laugh: how many extra wins has Kelly come up with for the Eagles this year? If he can make a winning team with Mark Sanchez at quarterback, he's got to be in the conversation as the Most Valuable Something!
Bruce Arians, Arizona. See above, and replace Sanchez with Stanton, and then whomever he threw in after Stanton went out Thursday to beat the Rams with!
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay. And last but probably most, the likely favorite in most people's eyes may or may not be the MOST valuable under these criteria, if only because the Packers are really good anyway. Certainly, Rodgers is having an insanely good season; he doesn't even HAVE a touchdown/interception ratio at home, because you must have a non-zero number in the denominator to have a ratio, and he's something like 36:0 at Lambeau. He's very likely the Most Outstanding Player; but we're not convinced he's the most valuable to his particular team.
But we get three more weeks to examine the incoming evidence!
So, let's start the conversation with THIS definition: the MVP is the player who contributes the most to his particular team's success on the field that specific year. Not "how spectacular are they?" Not "most popular". Not "award for a career's body of work", not the most surprising, and certainly not the highest selling jerseys, either. Finally, it should be the player who ADDS the most to the win total of his team: a great player whose team would go 16-0 without him adds NO value to his team, while a great player whose team STILL can't win a game also adds NO value to his team in our criteria.
Got it? Good! Here's our short list of whom to consider...
J.J. Watt, Houston. No, he's not going to win, and he probably shouldn't win. But he's probably singlehandedly won at least two games for the Texans with his two-way play, and deserves the credit he gets and then some.
Tom Brady, New England. A very viable candidate because without him, the Pats would be toast. This isn't the team that Matt Cassell could step in and go 11-5 with; a Bradyless New England is third in the division.
Andrew Luck, Indianapolis. See above.
Peyton Manning, Denver. See above, except that he has so much talent on both sides of the ball this year that it's arguable that even HE isn't indispensable this year.
Russell Wilson, Seattle. A different situation than Luck or Brady: The Seahawks DO have the talent to win with most quarterbacks, but it's Wilson's leadership as much as his throwing or running ability that transform Seattle from a contender into a Super Bowl champ and (increasingly) likely repeat champ.
DeMarco Murray, Dallas. His season will indubitably be the top by a running back this year, but it's the theory of play Jason Garrett has for the Cowboys this year - don't let Romo or the defense lose the game; let the running game win it - that has Murray in the hunt.
Chip Kelly, Philadelphia. Don't laugh: how many extra wins has Kelly come up with for the Eagles this year? If he can make a winning team with Mark Sanchez at quarterback, he's got to be in the conversation as the Most Valuable Something!
Bruce Arians, Arizona. See above, and replace Sanchez with Stanton, and then whomever he threw in after Stanton went out Thursday to beat the Rams with!
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay. And last but probably most, the likely favorite in most people's eyes may or may not be the MOST valuable under these criteria, if only because the Packers are really good anyway. Certainly, Rodgers is having an insanely good season; he doesn't even HAVE a touchdown/interception ratio at home, because you must have a non-zero number in the denominator to have a ratio, and he's something like 36:0 at Lambeau. He's very likely the Most Outstanding Player; but we're not convinced he's the most valuable to his particular team.
But we get three more weeks to examine the incoming evidence!
Monday, December 8, 2014
The NFC's mathematics problem...
Take a look at the NFC rankings in particular this week, and their records...
So, there are TWO teams from each of THREE divisions (meaning there will be THREE non-division winners among the six), while the best of the NFC South teams comes in at #22, with #23, #24, and #30 close behind. In fact, if Atlanta loses to the Packers tonight (as expected - they're two TD underdogs), it will be mathematically impossible for ANY team in the division to have a winning record this year.
| week 14 | Team | Div | OvRecord |
| A1 | Green Bay Packers | N-N | 9-3 |
| A2 | New England Patriots | A-E | 10-3 |
| A3 | Denver Broncos | A-W | 10-3 |
| A4 | Seattle Seahawks | N-W | 9-4 |
| B5 | Indianapolis Colts | A-S | 9-4 |
| B6 | Philadelphia Eagles | N-E | 9-4 |
| B7 | Dallas Cowboys | N-E | 9-4 |
| B8 | Arizona Cardinals | N-W | 10-3 |
| C09 | Detroit Lions | N-N | 9-4 |
| C10 | Baltimore Ravens | A-N | 8-5 |
| C11 | Pittsburgh Steelers | A-N | 8-5 |
| C12 | Cincinnati Bengals | A-N | 8-4-1 |
| D13 | San Diego Chargers | A-W | 8-5 |
| D14 | Miami Dolphins | A-E | 7-6 |
| D15 | Houston Texans | A-S | 7-6 |
| D16 | Kansas City Chiefs | A-W | 7-6 |
| E17 | Buffalo Bills | A-E | 7-6 |
| E18 | Cleveland Browns | A-N | 7-6 |
| E19 | St. Louis Rams | N-W | 6-7 |
| E20 | San Francisco 49ers | N-W | 7-6 |
| F21 | Minnesota Vikings | N-N | 6-7 |
| F22 | Atlanta Falcons | N-S | 5-7 |
| F23 | Carolina Panthers | N-S | 4-8-1 |
| F24 | New Orleans Saints | N-S | 5-8 |
| G25 | Chicago Bears | N-N | 5-8 |
| G26 | New York Giants | N-E | 4-9 |
| G27 | Washington Redskins | N-E | 3-10 |
| G28 | New York Jets | A-E | 2-11 |
| H29 | Oakland Raiders | A-W | 2-11 |
| H30 | Tampa Buccaneers | N-S | 2-11 |
| H31 | Jacksonville Jaguars | A-S | 2-11 |
| H32 | Tennessee Titans | A-S | 2-11 |
As we see it, there are SIX teams in the NFC who are head and shoulders above the rest - six teams in slots #1-9 in the FF rankings (and basically everyone else's, too), six teams with at least nine wins already, and the next team in the conference doesn't show up until Tier E, #19! With six playoff spots and six good teams, this should be easy...
EXCEPT for the GOSH-DARNED SOUTH Division!
Take another look at where the teams in each division are (we'll just show you the NFC this time...), highlighting the six leaders and the NFC South:
| week 14 | Team | Div | OvRecord |
| A1 | Green Bay Packers | N-N | 9-3 |
| A4 | Seattle Seahawks | N-W | 9-4 |
| B6 | Philadelphia Eagles | N-E | 9-4 |
| B7 | Dallas Cowboys | N-E | 9-4 |
| B8 | Arizona Cardinals | N-W | 10-3 |
| C09 | Detroit Lions | N-N | 9-4 |
| E19 | St. Louis Rams | N-W | 6-7 |
| E20 | San Francisco 49ers | N-W | 7-6 |
| F21 | Minnesota Vikings | N-N | 6-7 |
| F22 | Atlanta Falcons | N-S | 5-7 |
| F23 | Carolina Panthers | N-S | 4-8-1 |
| F24 | New Orleans Saints | N-S | 5-8 |
| G25 | Chicago Bears | N-N | 5-8 |
| G26 | New York Giants | N-E | 4-9 |
| G27 | Washington Redskins | N-E | 3-10 |
| H30 | Tampa Buccaneers | N-S | 2-11 |
Therefore, we're already guaranteed that a nine-win team will stay home in the NFC (more likely a 10 or 11 win team), while the NFC South winner not only goes to the playoffs, but HOSTS a game!
We are NOT the Big 12 - we will NOT change the rules in midstream. However, we would like to recommend a rule change starting next year...
"No team may participate in the playoffs if their record is under .500."
You can't say at .500, as much as you'd like to, because it's possible you won't have six teams out of sixteen over .500. (In fact, it's theoretically possible for the entire league to be 8-8, so under that version of the rule NO ONE goes to the playoffs. But that's not very likely.)
But under .500? Easy. "If a division champion is under .500, then its spot goes to the first wild card team; the second team moves up to the #5 slot, and a third wild card team is entered into the #6 slot."
"Furthermore, if the entire conference is putrid and there are not six teams in a particular conference with .500 records or above, then all empty slots in that conference will be filled with the next available teams from the opposite conference." (That's the way the CFL does it already! That's how British Columbia got into the playoffs instead of 8-10 Toronto!) "Hence, the #7 team in the opposing conference takes the #6 slot in the putrid conference, assuming one open slot."
And, just in case..."If somehow, there are NOT six teams with records of .500 or above available at all," (and it IS theoretically possible: what if there are five teams who go 14-2? There'll be a lot of losses to spread around in the league!), "then ALL empty slots are treated as BYES, and the opposing team gets a walkover into the next round." Wouldn't THAT be a fascinating turn of events! How serious are you about not allowing 7-9 teams into your postseason?
("Alternatively, if you want to wuss out and take the money and run instead, then on a 3/4 vote of the league owners, the previous paragraph may be waived on a one-year basis IF there are not twelve eligible teams to fill the twelve available spots. Wusses.")
Our pro football tiers and rankings for Week 14...
The biggest change at the top of the rankings is the emergence of the defending champs in Tier A, the Seattle Seahawks. Their threat is real - just ask Arizona and San Francisco!
At the other end of the spectrum, the Oakland Raiders have worked their way out of the dungeon, and left the Tennessee Titans at the bottom, following their evisceration at the hands of the New Jersey Giants.
In between, the continuing demise of the 49ers and the Saints mystifies, and the continued bunched success of the AFC North invites a host of "what ifs?" for folks like us to ponder!
At the other end of the spectrum, the Oakland Raiders have worked their way out of the dungeon, and left the Tennessee Titans at the bottom, following their evisceration at the hands of the New Jersey Giants.
In between, the continuing demise of the 49ers and the Saints mystifies, and the continued bunched success of the AFC North invites a host of "what ifs?" for folks like us to ponder!
| FF rank | Team | Div | OvRecord | ConfRc | DvRec |
| A1 | Green Bay Packers | N-N | 9-3 | 6-3 | 4-1 |
| A2 | New England Patriots | A-E | 10-3 | 7-2 | 2-1 |
| A3 | Denver Broncos | A-W | 10-3 | 8-1 | 4-0 |
| A4 | Seattle Seahawks | N-W | 9-4 | 6-2 | 2-1 |
| B5 | Indianapolis Colts | A-S | 9-4 | 7-3 | 4-0 |
| B6 | Philadelphia Eagles | N-E | 9-4 | 5-4 | 3-0 |
| B7 | Dallas Cowboys | N-E | 9-4 | 6-4 | 2-2 |
| B8 | Arizona Cardinals | N-W | 10-3 | 7-2 | 2-1 |
| C09 | Detroit Lions | N-N | 9-4 | 7-2 | 3-0 |
| C10 | Baltimore Ravens | A-N | 8-5 | 4-5 | 2-3 |
| C11 | Pittsburgh Steelers | A-N | 8-5 | 7-3 | 3-2 |
| C12 | Cincinnati Bengals | A-N | 8-4-1 | 5-4 | 2-2 |
| D13 | San Diego Chargers | A-W | 8-5 | 6-4 | 2-2 |
| D14 | Miami Dolphins | A-E | 7-6 | 6-4 | 3-1 |
| D15 | Houston Texans | A-S | 7-6 | 6-3 | 2-1 |
| D16 | Kansas City Chiefs | A-W | 7-6 | 5-4 | 1-3 |
| E17 | Buffalo Bills | A-E | 7-6 | 4-6 | 3-2 |
| E18 | Cleveland Browns | A-N | 7-6 | 4-6 | 2-2 |
| E19 | St. Louis Rams | N-W | 6-7 | 4-5 | 2-2 |
| E20 | San Francisco 49ers | N-W | 7-6 | 6-4 | 1-3 |
| F21 | Minnesota Vikings | N-N | 6-7 | 5-5 | 0-4 |
| F22 | Atlanta Falcons | N-S | 5-7 | 5-4 | 4-0 |
| F23 | Carolina Panthers | N-S | 4-8-1 | 4-6 | 2-2 |
| F24 | New Orleans Saints | N-S | 5-8 | 4-5 | 2-2 |
| G25 | Chicago Bears | N-N | 5-8 | 4-5 | 1-3 |
| G26 | New York Giants | N-E | 4-9 | 2-7 | 1-3 |
| G27 | Washington Redskins | N-E | 3-10 | 1-8 | 1-2 |
| G28 | New York Jets | A-E | 2-11 | 2-7 | 0-4 |
| H29 | Oakland Raiders | A-W | 2-11 | 1-8 | 1-3 |
| H30 | Tampa Buccaneers | N-S | 2-11 | 1-8 | 0-4 |
| H31 | Jacksonville Jaguars | A-S | 2-11 | 1-8 | 0-3 |
| H32 | Tennessee Titans | A-S | 2-11 | 2-7 | 1-3 |
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