Prophecies, part two...

Here are the college football PROPHECIES for All Hallow’s Eve …

BIG GAMES in the FBS) There are five by our count:

Florida v Georgia (+2.5) – the World’s Largest Cocktail party is more important than usual, because it will have a HUGE impact on which team carries the olive at the end of the year! Florida’s 4-1, Georgia’s 3-2. Everyone else has three losses in conference. When Florida wins and covers, they’ll have a berth in the SEC title game all but wrapped up!

North Carolina @ Pitt (+3) – Two of the three undefeateds in conference play in the ACC Atlantic division, along with Duke. The winner here has a clear leg up, and we see Pitt pulling the upset, as three of our metrics (including our own Following Football tier system) agree.

Stanford @ Washington St (+13.5) – If Wazzu wins, they’re tied with the Cardinal and have the tiebreaker. WHEN Stanford wins by LESS than 13.5, they’ll have two games clear on the field and the Pac-12 North sewn up.

Notre Dame @ Temple (+9) – on a dare, we’ll take Temple to keep it closer than nine. Call it motivation. IF the Rockets should win, expect a vault up the rankings for not just them but all four AAC undefeateds.

Louisiana Tech @ Rice (+13) – for control of Conference USA West (along with Southern Miss, each has just one loss). The point spread is too close to call, but LaTech should indeed win by about two touchdowns.

BIG GAMES in the FCS) We see six of them that could possibly decide conference titles:

Dartmouth @ Harvard – This is the BIGGEST one! Both ranked top ten, Harvard’s been on top for years but Big Green’s been gaining…and now, the Dartmouth Defense thinks it can stop the high-powered Crimson offense. They’re wrong. Harvard by 10+ points. (Remember, there are no Vegas spreads in the FCS, so we create our own.)

Jacksonville @ Dayton – the two “least weak” teams in the Pioneer League pillow fight it out! If Dayton wins, they’ll stay unbeaten and have wins over their two biggest threats, J-ville and San Diego. If they lose, well, it’s a four-way tie at the top. At Dayton, we’ll take the Flyers to win, and that’s as much as we can ask. Gonna be a close game!

Colgate @ Fordham – very similar to its cousin in the Ivy League, the Patriot League also pairs its two remaining unbeaten this week in a showdown essentially for the title. Fordham’s been dominant all season long – we’ll call them 10+ point winners here, too.

Eastern KY @ Jacksonville St – Along with Eastern Illinois (whom JSU plays next week), two of the three unbeaten play their round-robin starting this week. If JSU can handle Auburn into a second overtime, they can sure handle EKU by a touchdown or more.

James Madison @ William & Mary – A week ago, this might have been a classic…now, with JMU’s QB out for the season, it’s the Cowboys all over again: William & Mary wins comfortably.

Coastal Carolina @ Charleston Southern – CSU’s won five in a row, and sits 3-0 in conference. Coastal is 7-0, ranked first in some polls, and obviously also unbeaten in conference. Saturday, they meet for the Big South title, for all intents and purposes. We’ll take the visitors, as tempting as it is to take the home crowd and all. Coastal’s got it all rolling this year.

OK…here are the other games of interest throughout the nation this weekend, and our picks on most of them:

Michigan @ Minnesota (+13.5) – With Jerry Kill’s retirement today, here’s betting the Gophers play their hearts out for him Saturday. Gophers cover.

Oklahoma St @ Texas Tech (+3) – OSU should be able to handle the Red Raiders fairly comfortably. Cowboys cover.

West Virginia @ TCU (-14) Thursday night – Something says this game will be closer than we think. All the metrics say 9-13 points, and the injuries are starting to catch up to both TCU and Baylor, and we think the title will head north into the state of OK somewhere…

USC @ Cal-Berkeley (+6) – They felt embarrassed at UCLA; they will NOT be embarrassed to the rich kids! Cal covers the six points.

Oregon @ Arizona St (-2) Thursday night – If you think the Sun Devils are going to win, might as well take the two points as well! Odds of a one point win are slim…

Ole Miss @ Auburn (+7) – Only interesting because it’s an SEC West battle, and all seven teams there are amazing. We like Auburn to keep it close.

South Florida @ Navy (-7.5) – there’s a LOT more than a touchdown between these teams. Navy by double that.

Florida International @ Florida Atlantic (+3.5) – bonus points if you can name what city either team is located in! (Neither can we.) FIU is decent; the Owls are not. FIU despite the points.

San Diego St @ Colorado St (+4.5) – We started the season saying that the entire Mountain division was better than the West, and that any of the best four teams (AF, CSU, USU, and Boise) could win the West easily. If that’s still true, the Rams win this game outright, even if the Aztecs are the class of the West (and they are!).

Idaho @ New Mexico St (+4.5) – Two rivalry games to finish this section: the Vandals and the Aggies had to roam the wastelands together when the WAC gave up football and no one else would take them. (Remember the season – 2010? – when the proposal was twelve games of Idaho v NMSU, six at each school?) What would you think about Idaho winning three in a row? (They hadn’t won two straight since 2011.) Take the Vandals to win by more than 5.

Louisiana Monroe @ Louisiana-Lafayette (-11.5) – The latter school tries to just call itself “Louisiana” now, but it seems a shame to kill the connection betwixt the schools. Like FIU changing to “The International” or something. But this line seems like it’s about right – no pick ATS from us; just confirmation that ULL should win by 11 or so.

AND, here are some of the interesting games in the FCS this weekend…

Indiana St @ Illinois St (no Vegas lines, of course) – Take Illinois St by at least 17 points.

Weber St @ Eastern Washington – EWU by 15+ “on the red”.

Montana @ Portland St – Sorry, Mr. Clixby and Grandpa Mike…Portland St by at least seven.

Maine @ Villanova – The Wildcats are better than everyone else except the top three in the Colonial… Villanova by 7+.

Monmouth @ Kennesaw St – The newcomers are 6-2, albeit against flimsy competition, but that’s fine for a team playing its first year of football EVER! However, we think Monmouth will win this one.

Western Carolina @ Chattanooga – almost put this in the BIG game section, but I don’t see WCU challenging Chattanooga, who should win by 13 or more.

Furman @ Samford – hate picking Southern Conference games! They always seem to go sideways on us! But we’ll try taking Samford by, say, at least five here…

Wofford @ VMI – …and Wofford by a TD or more over the team that won its first road conference game in three years last week!

Butler @ Marist – Close in every metric we use, but Marist comes out on top in every metric, too. Marist by 3.

Sacred Heart @ St. Francis-PA – St. Francis should hold on to this one at home.

Pennsylvania @ Brown – The undercard to Dartmouth/Harvard in the Ivy League this week should see Brown win a close one.

Alcorn St @ Southern – the two division champs from last year in the SWAC meet, and we’ll take a narrow Jaguar victory for Southern.

Alabama State v Alabama A&M meet in a neutral site game in Birmingham, and we’ll take State by three.

Norfolk St @ NC Central – two closely matched MEAC teams, with NCC destined to win by three.

Last but certainly least, Savannah St @ Howard, a matchup of two of the worst HBC teams of 2015 (or most any other year), and we’re of course obliged to pick against Savannah State, selecting Howard to win by six!

Do we need to give you our picks for ALL the other games? Sigh… All right… Hang on…

Take VT (-2.5) over BC, Clemson (-10) over NCState, Louisville (-12) over Wake, GT (-5.5) over UVA, Iowa (-17) over Maryland, Purdue (+10.5) covers over Nebraska, Wisc (-19) over Rutgers, Texas (-7) over Iowa St, Utah (-23.5 and still mad) over OSU, UCLA (-20.5) over Colorado, Tenn (-7.5) over KY, Tx A&M (-15) over SoCarolina, Arkansas by 25 over UT-Martin (no line), Houston (-13) over Vandy, UCF (+25) covers over Cincy, Tulsa (-3) over SMU, Marshall (-20) over Charlotte, WKU (-23) over ODU, NoTexas (+9.5) covers over UTSA, UTEP (+22.5) covers against USM, all the favorites in the MAC cover, Air Force (-7.5) covers against Hawaii, Boise (-20) covers at UNLV, USU (-24) over Wyoming, App St (-23) over Troy, and GASO (-21) over Texas St. Lots of favorites covering this week. If we didn’t name the game, we’re not picking a side against the spread, but we like the favorite to win.

In the FCS… winners in the MVC will be SDSU, NDSU, Northern Iowa and Western Illinois; in the Big Sky, we like SUU, MSU, Northern Arizona; in the Colonial, we’ll take Richmond, New Hampshire, Towson, and Stony Brook; in the Southland, we like McNeese, Central Ark, Lamar, NW St, SHSU and SFA; Presbyterian in the Big South; ETU and Citadel in the Southern; Duquesne, CCSU in the NEC; Tenn St, EIU, and SEMO in the Ohio Valley; Campbell, San Diego, and Drake in the Pioneer; Yale and Princeton in the Ivy; Bucknell and Lehigh and HC in the Patriot; BCU, NCAT, and SC State in the MEAC; and JSU and Prairie View in the SWAC.

Happy trails!

You'll love this. Really.

Georgia Tech's athletic department received this handwritten note from a child (we're guessing second grade or so) expressing her love for GT football (even if it does get boring at times), and thus her hatred of all things of a Georgia Bulldog nature. 

It's adorable. If you don't like the teams involved, substitute your favorites and your rival instead (Boise St/Idaho Vandals; Colorado/CSU; whomever). It'll still work.

Nothing more than a friendly rivalry, right?

This feels like my experience at Caltech! A Georgia Tech student was sentenced for hacking into the U-Georgia @ Athens website to...ah, edit their football schedule...

The final AP poll for 2014 (compared to ours!)

Here's Dr. Saturday's Nick Bromberg and his article on the final AP poll of the year. There are several interesting rankings to notice...

> TCU is ranked third, despite not making the playoff. To their credit, they had TCU up to or near third before the playoff (we had them fifth, so we've left them fifth).

> Georgia Tech is indeed one spot ahead of Georgia, but Boise St is a spot ahead of Ole Miss, who beat them soundly on a (theoretically) neutral field at the beginning of the year. Is that significant? Even as a Bronco fan, I'd have reversed them. 

> Marshall wasn't in the previous top 25, but they finished the year as #23. 

Here are the Following Football final rankings, as well as the AP poll for comparison:

1. Ohio St    (AP #1)

2. Oregon     (AP #2)

3. Alabama     (AP #4)

4. Florida St   (AP #5tie)

5. TCU               (AP #3)

6. Michigan St(AP#5tie)

7. Baylor          (AP #7)

8. Georgia Tech (AP #8)

9. Miss St       (AP #11)

10. Georgia      (AP #9)

11. UCLA      (AP #10)

12. Ole Miss   (AP #17)

13. Missouri  (AP #14)

14. Kansas St (AP #18)

15. Clemson  (AP #15)

16. Wisconsin (AP #13)

17. Auburn     (AP #22)

18. Boise St   (AP #16)

19. Arizona St  (AP #12)

20. USC         (AP #20)

21. Arizona (AP #19)

22. LSU

23. Utah         (AP #21)

24. Texas A&M

25. Stanford

AP #23. Marshall
AP #24. Louisville
AP #25. Memphis

And if you're REALLY ambitious and looking ahead to 2015, check out Mark Schlabach's "way-too-early Top 25" for next fall from ESPN, where TCU, Ohio St, and Baylor make up the top 3 (none of whom are SEC teams! Gasp!)...

Forget Saban/Meyer - here's the ultimate contrast in bowl coaches!

As we follow the "Belk Bowl" (whatever the blazes a "belk" is), between Georgia and Louisville, we here at Following Football can't help but mention the HUGE difference in the head coaches involved. Georgia's Mark Richt is perhaps the most famous Christian coach in the nation, even appearing as the inspiration in the famous Christian film Facing The Giants. Meanwhile, Bobby Petrino was famously relieved of his duties at Arkansas after crashing his motorcycle with his illegally hired mistress on the back; this after arriving in Arkansas when he literally deserted the Atlanta Falcons midseason when the opportunity to jump ship arose. 

Forgive us, UL friends, if we root for the Bulldogs tonight....

Georgia Tech 30, Georgia 24, OT

Wheel through the highlights of the Yellowjackets win over the Bulldogs this afternoon, and in particular we recommend "4th Quarter 4:22 - GT", which is the pooch onside that Tech recovered because there are two UGA players who don't know the rules of football. The last several clips, of course, are also worth watching: Georgia took the lead with eighteen seconds to go, GT managed to get close enough with four to go for their kicker to tie it from 53-yards away, and then won it with a TD and an interception, respectively, in overtime.

What is a rivalry?

A rivalry is NOT someone you compete against every season.
It is NOT just proximity.
It is NOT hatred, enmity, or animosity.
It is NOT sharing a conference, a city, or a state.

What a rivalry IS...is a pair of teams who can literally "throw out the records" whenever they play.

Consider the games today: Ohio St v Michigan, which was 17-22 points in the Buckeyes' favored column...way too much for a rivalry game. Currently 28-21 OSU, back and forth all game long....Kentucky v Louisville, in which UL was favored by 9-14, but which was at 28-26 in the fourth last check....Georgia Tech v Georgia, where underdog GT leads 21-17 with under three to go...and apparently the two teams brought into the Pac-12 together, Utah v Colorado, where the Utes should have won rather easily but the Buffaloes lead by two in the third quarter. Watching the Civil War tonight (Oregon v Oregon St) or the most fascinating intersectional rivalry in football, Notre Dame v USC, or either of the SEC  matchups: Mississippi St/Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl (games w names usually are trying to be rivalries!) and the Iron Bowl which cannot top last year's everevereverever, Auburn v Alabama.

There are certainly other examples: Arizona/Arizona St (42-35 yesterday), Stanford/Cal, UCLA/USC, Harvard/Yale, Florida St/Miami-Fl, and you can probably name many of your own. Sometimes they arise from personality meshes: in the NFL, New England v Indianapolis were big rivals because they were both top of the division teams, but more because they had Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, the two great quarterbacks of their generation.

And sometimes, rivalries are manufactured - rarely successfully, but once in a while... For example, Nebraska entering the Big Ten, they're playing new teams up and down their schedule, and so there are several teams who might serve as a rival for them. But, watching the wild game against Iowa yesterday (which went to overtime before UN won 37-34), they may have found a rival after all!

Sometimes, rivalries can die, too: it used to be that Boise St v Idaho was one of the great unsung rivalries in the nation, through there D2 days, then the Big Sky days, then they move up into the Big West together in the FBS, and finally into the WAC....but as the Broncos continued to improve, winning conference championships left and right, the Vandals sputtered to losing seasons, fell out of conferences altogether for a year before scrambling back into the low-level Sun Belt and a 1-10 season again this year. When Boise won its tenth or twelfth straight over U of I, it became clear that the critical element of "any given day" was long gone. And therefore, so was the rivalry. There were still sports where the two teams are rivals, but not in football.

College predictions for Week 13!

Like we whined about with the pro schedule (our "whine" which was really a praise, of course!), we've been able to refine our tiers to the point where our tier-based predictions barely differ from the casino lines or from the Sagarin point spreads. We'll review some of the major contests coming up this Thanksgiving weekend, along with the games where we actually have some differing forecasts to consider...

Games of the highest interest:

Thursday - TCU @ Texas - The Horned Frogs are favored by anywhere from 6 1/2 to 9 points, but with the surging Longhorns looking for a pelt to prove they're on the road back, our instincts are telling us TCU's in trouble.

Friday - Arkansas @ Missouri - Another case of a surging lower team looking for a pelt, but in this case the Tier E Razorbacks are ready to make a full coat if they can prevent Mizzou from winning the East!

Arizona St @ Arizona - The Territorial Cup hasn't looked this good in the 21st century! Both 9-2, both Tier C, #17 and #18 on our ranking list - and the Pac-12 South title in reach for both. Wildcats get the three point ad for being at home from us.

Stanford @ UCLA - ...but they'll have to hope the Bruins lose if they want to play Oregon next week. And UCLA's firing on too many cylinders to let that happen.

Virginia @ Virginia Tech - Both 5-6, both need the win to go to a bowl. Question: if VaTech lost, would they really consider letting Frank Beamer go?

Saturday - South Carolina @ Clemson - Always fun! Clemson by 4.5 up to 6, depending on which of us you listen to. The state championship is on the line...

Kentucky @ Louisville - And here too, where the Cardinals are favored by 8 up to 13.5, depending on who you get your info from. We're the low end, as usual - we've had a soft spot for the Wildcats all year, but if they continue their downward trend, it may be much worse than that.

Michigan @ Ohio St - Probably Brady Hoke's last game. And if OSU comes up with a reason to run it up - to impress the committee, perhaps? - this could be uglier than the 17-22 point spreads we have in place.

Purdue @ Indiana - We can't even say it's for the state championship...Notre Dame won that. Hoosiers by 1.5 to 3.

Notre Dame @ USC - Glad they've found a way to keep this one on the schedule. Trojans by 3-7, although if Golson plays well, we see ND having a puncher's chance.

Florida @ Florida St - If you bet on this game, you're crazy. Sure, the spread is consistent: 5-11 points (we have it at 11), but if FSU wants to keep it close...if Florida decides to "win one for the Champer"....or lay down and die...this could be a rout either way, or a tie game at the death...

Baylor @ Texas Tech - Nothing to see here: Assuming the Bears show up (and they will), this game's job is to certify their credentials to pass TCU...who put up 82 on Tech. Hmm... The spread is 16-25, but if Baylor gets rolling, it might as well be 1625...

Kansas @ Kansas St - See previous comments.

Auburn @ Alabama - Why bother? The Iron Bowl can't POSSIBLY top last year's game... 'Bama by 5-10 points.

Oregon @ Oregon St - If you don't keep at least half an eye on this game, you might be surprised come Sunday morning! Sure, the Ducks are favored over the Beavers (by the way, the Civil War trophy is a combination of the two animals - hence, a platypus!) by 13-22 points, but there's a reason we're at the low end of that spread. OSU/Oregon has ALWAYS had the potential to ruin someone's season!

Games of a betting interest (but DON'T BET ON THEM!):

Friday - Northern Illinois @ Western Michigan - Hard to believe the Broncos are favored over the Huskies, but they are! We say by 1 point; Vegas says 7. (Sagarin, by the way, splits the difference: 3 1/2.)

Buffalo @ U Mass - The official line is Buffalo by 2; we call it EVEN. (Sagarin encourages us by picking UM by 2!)

Wyoming @ New Mexico - Coming off the shellacking Boise gave them, the Cowboys are 4 1/2 point underdogs in Vegas; we have them as one point faves! (Sagarin rates the game even.)

Games that are BOTH interesting on and off the field:

Thursday - LSU @ Texas A&M - We're picking the Aggies by 1; Vegas picks the Tigers by 2.5! (Sagarin rates it even.) Two teams who could beat anyone, but don't...

Friday - Nebraska @ Iowa - The Big Ten keeps trying to contrive rivalries since Oklahoma no longer shares the schedule. But this one seems to us to be the most natural, geographically. We see the Huskers by 3; Vegas has Iowa by 1. (Sagarin agrees with us.)

Georgia Tech @ Georgia - The state championship of Georgia looks like a foregone conclusion for Vegas; they favor UGA by 13 (Sagarin says 16.5!). We think Tech will stay within 6. (We do have a soft spot for Georgia Tech, though...)

Minnesota @ Wisconsin - We have a soft spot for the Golden Gophers, too - and they've got a legit shot at the Big Ten West title, if they can go into Madison and steal a game the way they stole the game (and the ball!) from Nebraska last week! We have UW as only a five point favorite; Vegas thinks Melvin Gordon runs wild and wins by two TDs. We like you, Badgers, but we're rooting for UM this weekend!!

Mississippi St @ Ole Miss - Can't recall this ever being THE game of the weekend! If Ole Miss had held up their end of the bargain, this could have been the game of the season! The casinos think MSU should be two-point favorites; we think Ole Miss at home should be the favorite, though not by much (half-point?). In the SEC West, home field has been everything. Our hunch is that it will be here, too.

Bodybag update!

Georgia is hosting FCS' Charleston Southern, and it's going exactly as you'd expect: in twelve possessions, the Tier B Bulldogs have missed one field goal, scored ten times, and kneeled at the end of the first half. They lead 55-3...so far.

În other patsy news, Vegas finally released a betting line for Savannah St's latest payday: the Brigham Young Cougars are favored by 59 points (not a misprint!). Ridiculous.

Highlights of the upcoming Week 12...

Games of interest for the week of November 18-24, 2014...

RIVALRIES! North Carolina @ Duke Thursday night (Duke favored by 6-9 points), and the Kansas City Chiefs head to Oakland Raiders that night as well (KC by 8). The other big FBS rivalries are in California: Stanford @ Cal in the afternoon, and USC @ UCLA in the evening (both FF and Vegas favor the Bruins by 3, so it's a pick'em game on a neutral field!). But the really fun rivalries are in the FCS, where Saturday is the day of The Game: Yale @ Harvard (Harvard should be a 16 point favorite), as well as two classics out west: Sacramento St @ UC Davis (the Hornets are favored by one on the road) and Montana St @ Montana (the Griz should win by 4 at home). Update: upsets Thursday! Duke loses BIG, 45-20, and the Raiders beat the spread AND KC, 24-20!

CANADIAN LEAGUE CONFERENCE FINALS on Sunday! It's going to be Montreal @ Hamilton,  the rubber match of the Eastern Conference slugfest! Hamilton won the last game of the season by more than Montreal beat them earlier, thereby securing the home field for this game to determine the East's entry into the 102nd Grey Cup! We see this as a pick'em game on a neutral field, so give the Ti-Cats the edge at home by three.

Meanwhile, Edmonton earned the right to travel to Calgary for the Western Conference final, where they'll be heavy underdogs against the best team in the regular season at 15-3. We pick the Stampeders by 10 at home, but Edmonton has shown that they're the best hope of preventing Calgary from raising the Cup this year, with a pair of 9-9 teams battling for the chance to face this game's winner next week.

BACK ON THIS SIDE OF THE 49th PARALLEL, there are some great games coming up this weekend! The K-State/WVU matchup Thursday should be a lot of fun, as will Minnesota @ Nebraska on Saturday. Curiosity as to what Kansas will do at Oklahoma - can they continue the strong play of their last two (home) games? Arizona @ Utah offers a hope of some great play, as does Ole Miss @ Arkansas.

THERE ARE SOME BAD MATCH-UPS out there, too...Why are you playing FCS teams at this stage of the season, Florida? Georgia? Alabama? Auburn? For all the chest-puffing and boasting the SEC does, games like this (against Eastern Kentucky, Charleston Southern, Western Carolina, and Samford) make them look foolish and scared. Which is foolish, since they could easily schedule a lower level FBS school if they needed another bodybag game, for the pre-season! If you need a break from the admitted rigors of the SEC schedule, put a bye in there!

The worst one, however, is our old pal Savannah St, who plays their (ahem) traditional rival BYU on Saturday afternoon. Our tier system and Sagarin's ratings make this about a 55-point spread, meaning the Cougars should win by eight touchdowns. WHY? Why play this game at all? Was BYU that desperate for a game that they had to schedule the lowest level FCS team they could find? 

There are two other interesting games in the FCS: former multiple champion Youngstown St plays at current multiple champion North Dakota St (the Bison are twenty point faves), and on the other end of the scale, Towson goes to bottom-feeder Rhode Island, just about the only team lower than they are (Towson's a seven point fave).

And we CAN'T FORGET THE NFL, the league that never goes dark! Following the Adrian Peterson verdict today (out the rest of the season), it'll be interesting to see the Viking crowd reaction when Green Bay comes in Sunday and runs up fifty on them,too. Detroit's got a big challenge, going to New England the week after seeing them annihilate Indy. Miami has a great test this week too, going into Mile High to face Denver. Finally, in the spirit of the SEC, the Jacksonville Jaguars go into Lucas Oil Stadium to face the Indianapolis Colts, a 15-point favorite (a line you very rarely see in the NFL, but a very accurate one in our opinion). Pittsburgh and Carolina get the last byes of the season this week.

What an insane afternoon of football!!!!

Auburn, how do you fumble on a spike play? Two fumbles in the last four hikes; the first recovery may be questionable, but the second...wow, what a devastating way to lose for their center.

Here's what a bottom-feeder "come from behind victory" looks like: Appalachian St had the ball inside the twenty under two minutes, down by a point, looking to defeat UL-Monroe...and threw three straight incompletions. Made the FG, luckily.

Northwestern, and coach Pat Fitzgerald: you've got balls. Down 10-9, having scored a TD with three seconds to go in the game, they went for two and the win, not the XP and overtime. Just because it failed doesn't make it a bad decision.

Arizona St had two pick-sixes against Notre Dame, the last one ugly - Notre Dame's Corey Robinson looks away before catching the ball, and then bats the ball upwards perfectly for Lloyd Carrington to pick and six it. Under coach Todd Graham, ASU is 7-6 against ranked opponents; before that, they were 5-41!

We're not sure we're all that impressed with Ole Miss' performance against lower-level Presbyterian today: yes, seven of their drives resulted in TDs, but the others were two missed FGs, two missed fourth downs, one interception, and one which ended the game. Eh...

Michigan @ Northwestern, by the way, hit halftime tied at zero. Only three games in the FBS have had scoreless first halves this season...and two of them were at Northwestern. (The other was against Northern Illinois.) The two Wildcat scoring drives were 14 plays for 74 yards, and 19 plays for 95 yards. By the way, the 19 play drive was the field goal drive!

Texas A&M was a 23 point underdog on the road, so it was going to take some breaks to beat Auburn today. They got some late - the new definition of "buttfumble", discussed above - but also early, where they scored on a 60-yard pass on the fourth play, recovered an Auburn fumble on the fifth play, and scored on another long pass on the eighth play. 14-0. They ALSO got a break in the middle: on a long Auburn FG attempt to end the first half, a stray hand in the middle happened to hit the flight of the ball, an A&M player happened to retrieve it on the bounce, and he made it to the end zone (again, last play of the half: he had to) to switch from 28-20 to a 35-17 lead. PS: Texas A&M won by three.

The two major teams from the state of GEORGIA were insanely efficient today! For the Georgia Bulldogs, the only drives in which they did NOT score a touchdown were at the end of each half - meaning they never turned the ball over, never punted, and converted every set of downs, in winning 63-31 over Kentucky. Meanwhile, the Georgia Tech Yellowjackets went to North Carolina St and possessed the ball a mere eight times: six touchdown drives, one fumble, and one 12-play drive that ended the game. To compare, somehow the Wolfpack had eleven drives, because two of those ended in touchdowns for GT instead in the 56-23 victory.

An interesting quote from the ESPN.com coverage of Penn St's victory over Indiana 13-7: "(Bill) Belton's fifth score of the year came on a 92-yard run and was the longest rushing touchdown by a single player in Penn St history." [our emphasis]

While you ponder what that means, we read much farther down the article: "Back in 1973, the Nittany Lions scored on a 92-yard play, but that was by two players and included a fumble." OOOOOhhhhhhh....

Somehow, Baylor had not beaten a top 25 team on the road in 38 attempts, or since 1991. After Oklahoma took a 14-3 into the second quarter, the Bears scored the last 45 points to walk away with the game, 48-14.

A poignant moment: OU's quarterback Trevor Knight went out of the game in the fourth with a scary injury, undiagnosed publicly last we heard. While he was being tended to, several Baylor players (including QB Bryce Petty) went to Knight's brother Connor and prayed with him on the field. 

As the early games progress

..we're seeing a bunch of missing defenses across the east, as teams run wild in second quarters in particular.

In Minnesota, the Hawkeyes drove for the first touchdown, and the Gophers rattled off five more against the, before halftime. At Oklahoma, the Baylor Bears threw five TDs at the Sooners in twenty minutes of the second quarter into the third. Georgia scored the first time it touched the ball - one of two kick returns for TDs so far - and hasn't failed to score yet, up 55-24 on Kentucky.

And so forth... Gonna be a great day!...

Week 9 College Tiers - the Top Third (Tiers A through G)...

Thanks to the classic 35-31 SEC matchup in Oxford, there was one change in the Top Six, with a straight swap that moved Auburn into Tier A and Ole Miss down to Tier B with their second loss (they're still the highest of the two-loss teams, but consider their two losses!). 

Look also for movement upwards from K-State, Arizona St, Missouri, Wisconsin, Iowa, and UCLA; falls from Georgia (where's the rushing D?), Kentucky, and East Carolina in particular...

Tier A: 8-0 Florida St and Mississippi St, along with 7-1 Alabama, Auburn, Notre Dame (barely), and TCU (even more barely!).

Tier B: Besides 7-2 Ole Miss, five one-loss teams with "acceptable" losses and impressive wins fill out the knights-in-waiting: Baylor, Kansas St, Michigan St, Ohio St, Oregon.

Tier C: These are the "if bedlam strikes above us - and it's been known to happen" teams in terms of the CFP committee's four precious roses: Four Pac-12 teams (Arizona at 6-2, Arizona St at 7-1, USC at 6-3, and Utah at 6-2) sit alongside LSU (7-2) and Nebraska (8-1). Truth be told, this tier doesn't need all four Pac-12 teams, but none of the teams below them deserve to knock them out. Probably Arizona St is the only truly likely possibility to challenge, along with the Tigers and Huskers.

Tier D: Under the heading, "if hell freezes over", we look at these clubs in slots 19-24: 6-1 Duke, Georgia and Missouri from the SEC East (two losses each), 5-2 Oklahoma, 7-2 UCLA, and 6-2 Wisconsin, so much more impressive in recent weeks.

Tier E: A wild mixture sits just outside the top 24, ranging from 5-4 Kentucky to 8-0 Marshall (needless to say, the competition differs from C-USA to the SEC!). Also present are Clemson (6-2), the Mountain West's best, Colorado St (8-1), 7-2 Georgia Tech (who impressed yesterday against Virginia), and hard-luck West Virginia, whose three losses are to Alabama, Oklahoma, and TCU.

Tier F: Six six-win teams populate tier F - East Carolina, Iowa, Louisville, Maryland, Miami-FL, and Minnesota.

Tier G: Rounding off the upper 42 are 6-2 Boise St, 5-4 California-Berkeley, 5-4 Oklahoma St, and three more SEC teams with erratic records: Florida, South Carolina, and Texas A&M. 

Week 9 upset alerts...and "as expected" alerts!,

Start in Division 1A - excuse us: "FCS"! - where defending champion North Dakota St trails 10-6 at the half to South Dakota St, which would be a huge upset, especially on the Bison's home field! What are NOT upsets are losses by Rhode Island (#13 in a row, falling to 0-9 this season by losing 28-13 at Delaware) and our personal favorite, Savannah St, who fell 59-7 at South Carolina St to extend its losing streak to eighteen, nine last year and nine this.

As for the FBS ranks, as usual, some of the "upsets" we called in advance, and some we missed entirely: 

Duke took two OTs to beat Pitt, who helped them out by missing a 26 yarder on the last play of regulation. We favored them, though Vegas had it the other way. Two OTs means we were half right.

East Carolina lost both their game and their favored underdog status today...TCU trails West Virginia by thirteen late in the third...and at the World's Largest Cocktail Party, the best drinks are being served on the Florida side of the parking lot, leading Georgia 24-7 in the third.

About those NCAA committee rankings...

First of all, here's the big reveal of the NCAA Football Committee's first efforts, released Tuesday evening. No big surprises: Mississippi St, Florida St, Auburn, and Ole Miss are the first four teams in the present rankings. 

The top two were a given, and it's hard to argue that either Auburn or Ole Miss is unworthy of the next two spots, although there are a half-dozen teams about whom we could say the same thing: we have TCU, Notre Dame, and Alabama as our next three alongside Ole Miss, but as we've said, any of the one-loss teams in Tiers A or B would be acceptable to us.

A couple of thoughts come to mind for us, though:

Given that the three SEC West teams still play each other, there's going to be a great deal of change in that order. (Auburn plays at Ole Miss this Saturday, so one of them walks away from that with two losses.) 

Secondly, the committee has a sense of humor. Look at the way the games would have laid out in their projections (which they KNOW won't be the final order) -

Mississippi St vs Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl

Florida St vs Auburn in the Rose Bowl

As Heather Dinich or whomever points out, that would have been a repeat of last year's BCS championship, in the same stadium in Pasadena, AND a repeat of the season ending Egg Bowl game, in the stadium as close to Mississippi as possible.

Wouldn't THOSE be two sweet matchups?

Finally, for those crying "SEC West FAVORITISM", look at the records, and look at the games. And if that's still not enough, relax by looking at the upcoming schedules: They're going to kill each other off. By definition, no more than two teams in the SEC West can finish the regular season with fewer than two losses now. There will NOT be a trifecta in the championship tournament. (Now, if you add Georgia into the mix...)

Reviewing another FANTASTIC Saturday in college ball!

- Baylor finally got what was coming to 'em today, and West Virginia finally beat one of those Tier 1 teams it played so well! Justice both ways...

- If Bob Stoops doesn't have open campus tryouts for a new kicker next week, then the Oklahoma coach should have his head examined...

- There are some teams that may sneak up on us when the Final Four are revealed in seven weeks or so (we'll publish a pice on THAT later in the week), and Minnesota may be one of them! Like Auburn last year, the luck of the Jedi is with the, this year...

- Duke / Virginia was as advertised, the Devils winning a tight one with a 4Q TD, 20-13...

- The Bottom Eight was packed with reverse upsets across the board: UMass winning big for the second week in a row, Appalachian St destroying Troy 53-14, Kent St beating the US Military Academy 39-17, and Idaho wins its first game of the year, 29-17 over fellow B8'er New Mexico St...

- Would anyone spotting the Texas A&M Aggies, please report their disappearance to the NCAA...

- The Battle of the University of California was also tremendous, with plenty of lead changes and great plays in UCLA's 36-34 victory over California...

- Ohio St, LSU, Marshall, TCU, Michigan St, Ole Miss and Oregon all demonstrated that sometimes, games DO go as expected, and the top team DOES win fairly easily...

- ... And sometimes, SMU is just as bad as we think they are. Cincinnati defeated the hapless Mustangs 41-3, in Dallas yet.

- Poor Todd Gurley. Your backups are proving that it was more the Georgia offensive line's doing than yours...

- Seven TD passes for USC tonight...game winning FG for Colorado St over their main rivals from Utah St... What happened to Florida and Kentucky today? Did their 3OT game a month ago wear them out (eventually)?... As good as the North Carolina QB looked against the Irish last week, it shouldn't have been a surprise that they could rise up and take out Georgia Tech 48-43...

- Did you see Nebraska QB Tommy Armstrong leap the linebacker en route to an almost-TD against Northwestern? Alas, they planted his knee outside the end zone, and Abdullah had to run it in on the next play. the Huskers won 38-17...

- Unlike Georgia's Gurley, it's hard to be clearer as to how important Tayson Hill was to BYU than to watch how they've gone from a 4-0 threat for the title playoff to an 0-3 afterthought following his injury, losing again last night to Nevada-Reno 42-35...

- And last and certainly most, what an epic game between pretentious Notre Dame and criminal coddlers Florida St, won by the Seminoles 31-27 after a last minute score by the Irish was called back on an offensive pass interference call that...well, it took guts to make the call. 

Good reflection on mid-season college football...

...from the folks at Grantland. The consensus for even the very near future is that there's no way to predict what's going to happen...and, so much for the playoff killing off the interest in the regular season!

Grantland - midseason CFB storylines

The tweet that defines the NCAA...

Jameis Winston is playing today. Todd Gurley is suspended indefinitely. Speaks volumes for @NCAA.

Staci D Kramer  - 12:31 PM - 11 Oct 2014

A Missouri writer, lamenting that Winston, the Florida State quarterback, played at Syracuse on Saturday after being notified he faces a university hearing into whether he sexually assaulted an FSU student in 2012. Gurley, the Georgia running back, was banned from the game against Missouri (and may not play again this year) after being accused of signing memorabilia and getting paid for it by a Georgia dealer.

(via Peter King)

Without further ado...the Week 6 Tiers!

Tier 1
Alabama (5-1, thanks to a blocked XP), Baylor (6-0, thanks to local timekeepers), Florida St (6-0, thanks to the Tallahassee PD), Mississippi St (6-0, legitimately), Notre Dame (6-0, no thanks to the stud QBing for North Carolina) , Ole Miss (also legit 6-0), Oregon (5-1), and TCU (4-1 and deserving of Tier 1 by proving against OU and Baylor that they deserve to be up here!).

Tier 2
Auburn (5-1 and probably just on vacation from the top tier), Arizona (5-1, and a failed two-pt conversion from undefeated), Georgia (5-1, after proving they are not just Todd Gurley), LSU (5-2), Michigan St (5-1, but they'd prefer three-quarter games), Oklahoma (5-1; see Auburn), Oklahoma St (5-1), and UCLA (4-2, all due to Brett Hundley).

Tier 3
Clemson (4-2), Duke (5-1), Georgia Tech (5-1), Kansas St (4-1), Nebraska (5-1, higher if we could forget McNeese St), Ohio St (4-1), Texas A&M (5-2, and our pastor will never set foot in the state of Mississippi again!), and USC (4-2).

Tier 4
Arizona St (4-1), Kentucky (5-1, and a 3OT loss from perfection), Louisville (5-2), Marshall (6-0, and a decent schedule away from perfection), Missouri (4-2, embarrassed by Georgia yesterday), Stanford (4-2), West Virginia (4-2), and Utah (4-1, and getting the hang of this Pac-12 thing).

Tier 5
Maryland (4-2), Minnesota (5-1, thanks to a great runback for the winning TD), Oregon St (4-1), Penn St (4-2 and fading), Rutgers (5-1), Virginia (4-2), Virginia Tech (4-2), and Washington (kur man Chris Petersen is starting to get the 5-1 Huskies moving smoothly!).

Tier 6
Arkansas (4-2, the lowest ranked SEC West team is still on the board!), Boston College (4-2), BYU (4-2 and falling faster than PSU), Colorado St (5-1 and on the rise), Florida (3-2, and the biggest mystery in the nation), Iowa (5-1), Miami-FL (4-3), and Utah St (4-2 and more and more looking like the cream of the MWC).

Tier 7
Air Force (4-2, and brought back to earth by USU), Boise St (4-2), Bowling Green (5-2), California (5-2, waxed by Washington), Northwestern (3-3), South Carolina (3-3), Tennessee (3-3), and Wisconsin (4-2).

On the outside, looking in...
Central Michigan, Cincinnati, Houston, Indiana, Memphis, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Northern Illinois, Pitt, Temple, Texas, Texas Tech...

A few Football factoids to Follow...

* The Philadelphia Eagles have returned seven balls for touchdowns this season, in just their first five games, which is the most in NFL history. Only four teams had six (including Dante Hall's KC Chiefs in 2003), and no one else this season has more than three!

* JJ Watt (occupation: Houston Texan defensive end) has two of those himself, including the amazingly athletic fumble return last night off Andrew Luck, as well as a TD catch as an offensive crossover. Besides being a budding media superstar and (by all accounts) a tremendously nice man, he is the most spectacular and arguably the most valuable defensive player in the league. However, as Colin Cowherd made note of this morning, he is NOT the league MVP, nor will he be. It's basically impossible to imagine a situation where a player who touches the ball twice a game on average is your most valuable, QBs have the huge advantage of handling it and determining the direction of it every single play, and the only other positions with a chance would be the others the handle it regularly - backs and receivers. Watt was spectacular last night...and the Texans lost, again, for the 15th time in 22 games, because their QB play was not up to snuff. In this case, not up to Luck. (Or Manning, or Brady, or Rogers, or Wilson or Brees or any of those top passers that dominate the games they play. 

Sorry, JJ - we love you; we really do! But you won't be the MVP.

* Todd Gurley, Georgia's Heisman-candidate running back, got caught puling a Manziel, signing autographs for money. He made approximately $400 by ESPN's estimation, and it may be that his college career is over. 

Meanwhile, the Power Five conferences (of which Georgia is a member) are about to start supplying cost-of-living expenses for their players, including insurance benefits and more, which will amount to hundreds of times more money flowing to every football player like Todd Gurley than he just got banned from the game for. 

Irony.

* If you're Peyton Manning, six touchdowns from tying Bret Favre's career TD record, and you're playing at the Jets this Sunday in a "who cares" road game before coming home for two important games against SF and SD... How many scores do you throw for this week? Certainly, not six or seven - he'd like to break the record at home, I'm sure. But this IS the Jets, after all, and wouldn't it be nice to get close so he can relax about "IT" happening sometime during that five day span. Our bet: if Peyton doesn't throw at least FOUR (and more likely five!) in New Jersey, it'll be an upset.

* The Cards are probably starting Logan Thomas, late of Va-Tech, at QB against Washington this weekend. Thomas' career stat sheet is remarkable, so I'll remark on it: 1 for 8, for 81 yards. The one was a mistake that the defense whiffed on, leaving the receiver to take it home without interference. Even against Washington, this could be ugly...

* Finally, two unusual college teams to watch out for... the Kentucky Wildcats are a three-OT, missed delay-of-game penalty away from an undefeated record, and the California Golden Bears are a Hail Mary loss to Arizona from a similar 5-0 record. Both teams have shown resilience and the ability to bounce back when down this year, despite meager recent histories... Why not them? Why not this year?