Moral of the story... letting family come in the way of football hurts your prognostication prowess! (On the other hand, letting football come in the way of family is FAR WORSE CRIME.) We did well with the Aussies; no complaints on the CFL or NFL, although they could've been better; but our college predictions, so good last week, were well under five-hundred yesterday - while our Saturday was (more appropriately) spent with the oldest son off at college visiting (and stocking his pantry and gas tank!). Nevertheless: priorities, priorities...
CFL: Hard to complain when we go 1-3, partly because this season is NUTS in the CFL, partly because we still outscored many experts! However, we went 1-2-1 against the spread, getting a win from Hamilton (appropriate, as that's the son's name!) and a push from the Winnipeg/Saskatchewan game, while Ottawa and Edmonton pulled the mild upsets.
AFL: Hit three of the four out of the park - it will indeed be West Coast and Fremantle hosting the preliminary finals in west Australia in two weeks, and Adelaide did manage to beat the Western Bulldogs on the <ahem> "home" grounds of the MCG by seven points; our one miss was Richmond's loss at the hands of the well-rested North Melbourne Kangaroos, who were allowed to rest half their team last week in prep for this game. North plays at Sydney next Saturday, and Adelaide plays at Hawthorn on Friday; the winners return to west Australia the following weekend for the shot at the Grand Final.
NFL: Went 7-7 so far against the spread (NOTE to the uninitiated: the NFL is the HARDEST to make a living at betting on because of the parity of the league. Our model assumes only about a fourteen point gap from team 1 to team 32 on the best of days; certain conditions reduce that even further.) and 8-6 straight up, with two more games to go tomorrow night. Very impressed with Buffalo, Tennessee, and Cincy today!
NCAA: Well, let's see...
--> TOP TIER GAMES: Oddly, we were 3-0 against the spread but only 1-2 straight up. (Check the original post for the specific games and predictions - too many to list!) Oregon and Mississippi St covered, but only the Sooners came through for the win.
--> OTHER GAMES OF INTEREST: We went 12-4 straight up (with some more leaners that I should have been more explicit about claiming) but only 9-13 against the spread. (Particularly proud of picking in Houston's favor!)
-->BLOWOUTS: Of course all thirteen won (ahem - we're looking at YOU, Auburn! Very pleased for Jacksonville St!) but we only picked the right side of the spread explosion on five of the thirteen.
--> OTHER FBS: Actually, we did better on these than I thought we had... we went 15-11 against the spread, which we'll take; and we were 24-2 straight up (the two upsets being Bowling Green's rout of Big Ten's Maryland, 48-27 IN Maryland, and the worst of the SEC wounds, Arkansas' 16-12 loss to Toledo from the MAC, 16-12). So, over all in the FBS choices, we went 32-32 against the spread - coin toss - and 50-8 straight up.
--> FCS GAMES: Here is where we fell on our faces... we may have managed 11-6 straight up (not as impressive as it sounds) but we were an abysmal 4-13 against the spread in the FCS only games. We plead ignorance, but we were the ones who picked which games to name, so that's no excuse. We did slightly better overall in the FCS games, and while our overall betting record this week was 61-14 straight up and just 36-45 against the spread; our record including games we didn't share ahead of time was three below 50% on points. (Can't claim it, though, unless we'd said it first.)
....OVERALL, then, here are our 2015 records so far:
AFL - 146 right and 55 wrong overall; 118-83 against the spread.
CFL - 27 right and 21 wrong overall.
NFL - 7 and 7 overall; 8 and 6 against the spread; two games still pending.
NCAA - 131 and 24 overall; 83 right against the spread and 72 wrong.
Showing posts with label Auburn. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Auburn. Show all posts
Sunday, September 13, 2015
Wednesday, September 2, 2015
PROPHECIES in PHOOTBALL for the 1st Weekend of September, 2015
It's finally here! The first slate of American football games hits the airwaves tomorrow night, and from here until January we'll have solid football available to us every five-day weekend (and even a few Tuesdays and Wednesdays in November, thanks to the MAC)! We'll keep track of our projections and predictions so you can keep us honest, just like we have for Aussie footy (138-50 so far this season straight up, 110-78 against the spread) and Canadian football (23-19 so far, in a season where the oddsmakers themselves are under .500!). Alas, we're already zero-and-one in college football, having forecast the defending champions to win in Missoula last weekend, when the Grizzlies came from behind in the last seconds to win. While we were personally happy to see UM victorious...it still goes in our loss column. Luckily, we NEVER bet money, and we don't recommend you use our prognostications to bet money, either! Gambling is an addiction for too many people, and if you're one of those for whom it becomes a slippery slope, don't even touch the betting window. These predictions are for entertainment purposes only.
Let's get the internationals out of the way first...
AFL) The three matches of interest are Richmond over North Melbourne (by more than the 7.5 spread); Adelaide over Geelong (by more than the 12.5 spread), and Port Adelaide over Fremantle, although I wouldn't bet on Freo's outcome this week as they've publicly said they're resting everyone of import this round with first place locked up. In other news, Hawthorn may not cover the 87 point difference our ratings have them over Carlton, but they'll win with their eyes closed; Sydney wins with ease over Gold Coast and West Coast over St. Kilda, but neither by the 50.5 spread. Western, Collingwood, and GWS will all win and cover against Brisbane, Essendon, and Melbourne.
CFL) The headline matches take place on Labor Day Monday, when we predict Hamilton over Toronto by 13 and Calgary over Edmonton by 6, which would place both winning teams firmly in control of their divisions with eight games to go in the season. On the undercard, we see Montreal hosting and beating BC by five, and Saskatchewan getting its first win, inspired by the fresh new coach, defeating Winnipeg by one.
As for the NFL) You're kidding, right? Talk to us next week.
NCAA) HERE WE GO!!!! There are FOUR tier I versus tier I games (using last year's rankings as a starting point) in the very first week ("Week Zero", but 126 of the 128 FBS teams play this weekend!). We see...
Alabama over Wisconsin (by more than the 10 point spread); Texas A&M over Arizona St (by more than 3), Auburn over Louisville on Sunday (and beating the 10.5 points), and Ohio St annihilating poor Virginia Tech on Monday night by more than the 11 point Vegas line, and probably more than the 22 point Sagarin rating difference as well, no matter who plays QB.
There are TEN other games in our list of "featured" matchups this weekend, all involving two top-notch teams. Here's our thoughts on them:
North Carolina will UPSET South Carolina, despite the 2.5 spread the other way.
Utah should edge Michigan, but not by 5.5 points - maybe a field goal?
TCU is favored by 14 over Minnesota, but we see the Gophers much more competitive than that.
Boise St's 11.5 spread over Washington, coached by former BSU boss Chris Petersen, is too high.
Notre Dame, on the other hand, will handle Texas by 10+ points, going away.
UCLA / Virginia will be over in the Bruins' favor by halftime; give the points.
BYU might not beat Nebraska, but they'll be closer than six.
Stanford, au contraire, wipes out Pat Fitzgerald's dreams at Northwestern, twelve points be hanged.
Temple should stay right with Penn State and at least beat the six point spread.
And finally, on Sunday, Marshall plays its second toughest opponent of the year - lowly Purdue - and wins by more than a TD; more likely four. That's why even 12-0 won't be enough for the Herd.
Next, we're going to look at ELEVEN of the more "interesting" match-ups farther down the food chain in Division I. There are some games where it may look like a bodybag game, but watch out, home favorite!
Georgia Southern is NOT a twenty point 'dog to West Virginia. I'm considering taking them straight up...Western Kentucky has actually moved to become a half-point favorite over Vanderbilt, and in fact they'll wipe the Commodores up by two TDs...UL-Lafayette went to a bowl game last year, and Kentucky didn't smell one. So why is UK a seventeen point fave?...Central Michigan won't upset Oklahoma, but they'll be more competitive than the Sooners want for an opener!...Same with Arkansas St at drunk frat party U (whoops) SC, who're too busy examining the ramifications of its off field issues to pay attention to the fact that ASU's got the same head coach for the first time in five years and will get out of the gates HOT this year...Eastern Washington, on the other hand, is in for a shellacking at the hands of their former QB and the Oregon Ducks....Finally in this category, is Hawaii an underdog to Colorado? Should anyone be an underdog to Colorado? Still, we're taking the Buffalo, because Hawaii's just that messed up.
Elsewhere, there's a fascinating bottom-of-the-ladder game where last year's Bottom Six champ, Georgia State, is actually favored against brand new FBS team Charlotte (by a TD). But even below THAT, two FBS teams play Saturday that have never played FOOTBALL before! East Tennessee St and Kennesaw St open up against each other, and someone's going to win their first game of football EVER (and the other team will probably go 0-12)...Also in the FBS, Chattanooga / Jacksonville State should be a great match-up; we're taking the Southern Conference champs over the Ohio Valley this go-round. Finally, our favorite team in the world opens their 2015 campaign in Fort Collins, Colorado: Savannah State should be a good bet to beat the Sagarin rating spread of 60+ points against Mountain West team Colorado State. But they won't...
Three games start the CONFERENCE slates this weekend - Montana has the chance to not only be the first 1-0 team in the country (which they are, as far as D1 is concerned), but also the first D1 team to be 1-0 in conference as well, and they should win over Cal Poly SLO in the Big Sky...In the SWAC, Prairie View A&M should beat Texas Southern, and the Southland season opens with Southeast Louisiana and Northwestern St. (betting the former to win on the road.)
There's a long list of much less interesting fodder, which we'll note without comment except to say that bold (and listed first) tells you who we think will WIN the game outright; and we're underlining the team who we favor against either the odds or the Sagarin rating spread (for games involving FCS teams, which Vegas doesn't post odds for).
Power Five conference team games: Boston College over Maine, Clemson over Wofford, Florida St over Texas St, North Carolina St over Troy, Syracuse over Rhode Island, Wake Forest over Elon, Duke over Tulsa, Georgia Tech over Alcorn St, Miami-FL over Bethune-Cookman, Richmond upsetting Maryland (!), Michigan St over Western Michigan, Rutgers over Norfolk St, Illinois over Kent St, Baylor by 70 over SMU, Oklahoma over Akron (not by 70, though), Okla St barely over Central Michigan, Cal over Grambling, Oregon St over Weber St, Washington St over Portland St, Arizona over UTSA, Florida over NMSU, Georgia over UL-Monroe, Missouri over SE Missouri St, Ole Miss over UT-Martin.
Group of Five conference team games: Cincinnati over Alabama A&M, East Carolina over Towson, UCF over FIU, USF over Florida A&M, Houston over Tennessee Tech, Memphis over Missouri St, Navy over Colgate, FAU over Tulsa?, MTSU over Jackson St, Old Dominion over Eastern Michigan, LA Tech over Southern, Rice over Wagner, Buffalo over Albany, Miami-OH may actually win a game playing Presbyterian!, Ohio over Idaho, Ball St over VMI, Northern Illinois will wipe out UNLV, Toledo over Stony Brook, Fresno St should beat Abilene Christian by 14+, Nevada over UC Davis, San Diego St has too big a spread to cover against crosstown San Diego of the Pioneer League, Air Force over Morgan State, New Mexico over Mississippi Valley St, Utah St should cover against Southern Utah, Wyoming over North Dakota, Appalachian St all over Howard, and South Alabama over Gardner-Webb.
There are only 21 games in which FCS teams play each other, and we normally don't predict very many of those games. We will mention a few, though, including our bet that Jacksonville does the weak sister Pioneer League proud and beats favored Delaware; that William & Mary can defeat Lefayette, that St. Francis-PA can handle Georgetown with ease, and that the student athletes from the military school The Citadel may get a chance to hone their obliteration skills against poor Davidson, owners of the worst Sagarin rating in Division 1.
(And there are eighteen games where an FCS team dips down into Division II to open the season. Ask me if I care.)
Let's get the internationals out of the way first...
AFL) The three matches of interest are Richmond over North Melbourne (by more than the 7.5 spread); Adelaide over Geelong (by more than the 12.5 spread), and Port Adelaide over Fremantle, although I wouldn't bet on Freo's outcome this week as they've publicly said they're resting everyone of import this round with first place locked up. In other news, Hawthorn may not cover the 87 point difference our ratings have them over Carlton, but they'll win with their eyes closed; Sydney wins with ease over Gold Coast and West Coast over St. Kilda, but neither by the 50.5 spread. Western, Collingwood, and GWS will all win and cover against Brisbane, Essendon, and Melbourne.
CFL) The headline matches take place on Labor Day Monday, when we predict Hamilton over Toronto by 13 and Calgary over Edmonton by 6, which would place both winning teams firmly in control of their divisions with eight games to go in the season. On the undercard, we see Montreal hosting and beating BC by five, and Saskatchewan getting its first win, inspired by the fresh new coach, defeating Winnipeg by one.
As for the NFL) You're kidding, right? Talk to us next week.
NCAA) HERE WE GO!!!! There are FOUR tier I versus tier I games (using last year's rankings as a starting point) in the very first week ("Week Zero", but 126 of the 128 FBS teams play this weekend!). We see...
Alabama over Wisconsin (by more than the 10 point spread); Texas A&M over Arizona St (by more than 3), Auburn over Louisville on Sunday (and beating the 10.5 points), and Ohio St annihilating poor Virginia Tech on Monday night by more than the 11 point Vegas line, and probably more than the 22 point Sagarin rating difference as well, no matter who plays QB.
There are TEN other games in our list of "featured" matchups this weekend, all involving two top-notch teams. Here's our thoughts on them:
North Carolina will UPSET South Carolina, despite the 2.5 spread the other way.
Utah should edge Michigan, but not by 5.5 points - maybe a field goal?
TCU is favored by 14 over Minnesota, but we see the Gophers much more competitive than that.
Boise St's 11.5 spread over Washington, coached by former BSU boss Chris Petersen, is too high.
Notre Dame, on the other hand, will handle Texas by 10+ points, going away.
UCLA / Virginia will be over in the Bruins' favor by halftime; give the points.
BYU might not beat Nebraska, but they'll be closer than six.
Stanford, au contraire, wipes out Pat Fitzgerald's dreams at Northwestern, twelve points be hanged.
Temple should stay right with Penn State and at least beat the six point spread.
And finally, on Sunday, Marshall plays its second toughest opponent of the year - lowly Purdue - and wins by more than a TD; more likely four. That's why even 12-0 won't be enough for the Herd.
Next, we're going to look at ELEVEN of the more "interesting" match-ups farther down the food chain in Division I. There are some games where it may look like a bodybag game, but watch out, home favorite!
Georgia Southern is NOT a twenty point 'dog to West Virginia. I'm considering taking them straight up...Western Kentucky has actually moved to become a half-point favorite over Vanderbilt, and in fact they'll wipe the Commodores up by two TDs...UL-Lafayette went to a bowl game last year, and Kentucky didn't smell one. So why is UK a seventeen point fave?...Central Michigan won't upset Oklahoma, but they'll be more competitive than the Sooners want for an opener!...Same with Arkansas St at drunk frat party U (whoops) SC, who're too busy examining the ramifications of its off field issues to pay attention to the fact that ASU's got the same head coach for the first time in five years and will get out of the gates HOT this year...Eastern Washington, on the other hand, is in for a shellacking at the hands of their former QB and the Oregon Ducks....Finally in this category, is Hawaii an underdog to Colorado? Should anyone be an underdog to Colorado? Still, we're taking the Buffalo, because Hawaii's just that messed up.
Elsewhere, there's a fascinating bottom-of-the-ladder game where last year's Bottom Six champ, Georgia State, is actually favored against brand new FBS team Charlotte (by a TD). But even below THAT, two FBS teams play Saturday that have never played FOOTBALL before! East Tennessee St and Kennesaw St open up against each other, and someone's going to win their first game of football EVER (and the other team will probably go 0-12)...Also in the FBS, Chattanooga / Jacksonville State should be a great match-up; we're taking the Southern Conference champs over the Ohio Valley this go-round. Finally, our favorite team in the world opens their 2015 campaign in Fort Collins, Colorado: Savannah State should be a good bet to beat the Sagarin rating spread of 60+ points against Mountain West team Colorado State. But they won't...
Three games start the CONFERENCE slates this weekend - Montana has the chance to not only be the first 1-0 team in the country (which they are, as far as D1 is concerned), but also the first D1 team to be 1-0 in conference as well, and they should win over Cal Poly SLO in the Big Sky...In the SWAC, Prairie View A&M should beat Texas Southern, and the Southland season opens with Southeast Louisiana and Northwestern St. (betting the former to win on the road.)
There's a long list of much less interesting fodder, which we'll note without comment except to say that bold (and listed first) tells you who we think will WIN the game outright; and we're underlining the team who we favor against either the odds or the Sagarin rating spread (for games involving FCS teams, which Vegas doesn't post odds for).
Power Five conference team games: Boston College over Maine, Clemson over Wofford, Florida St over Texas St, North Carolina St over Troy, Syracuse over Rhode Island, Wake Forest over Elon, Duke over Tulsa, Georgia Tech over Alcorn St, Miami-FL over Bethune-Cookman, Richmond upsetting Maryland (!), Michigan St over Western Michigan, Rutgers over Norfolk St, Illinois over Kent St, Baylor by 70 over SMU, Oklahoma over Akron (not by 70, though), Okla St barely over Central Michigan, Cal over Grambling, Oregon St over Weber St, Washington St over Portland St, Arizona over UTSA, Florida over NMSU, Georgia over UL-Monroe, Missouri over SE Missouri St, Ole Miss over UT-Martin.
Group of Five conference team games: Cincinnati over Alabama A&M, East Carolina over Towson, UCF over FIU, USF over Florida A&M, Houston over Tennessee Tech, Memphis over Missouri St, Navy over Colgate, FAU over Tulsa?, MTSU over Jackson St, Old Dominion over Eastern Michigan, LA Tech over Southern, Rice over Wagner, Buffalo over Albany, Miami-OH may actually win a game playing Presbyterian!, Ohio over Idaho, Ball St over VMI, Northern Illinois will wipe out UNLV, Toledo over Stony Brook, Fresno St should beat Abilene Christian by 14+, Nevada over UC Davis, San Diego St has too big a spread to cover against crosstown San Diego of the Pioneer League, Air Force over Morgan State, New Mexico over Mississippi Valley St, Utah St should cover against Southern Utah, Wyoming over North Dakota, Appalachian St all over Howard, and South Alabama over Gardner-Webb.
There are only 21 games in which FCS teams play each other, and we normally don't predict very many of those games. We will mention a few, though, including our bet that Jacksonville does the weak sister Pioneer League proud and beats favored Delaware; that William & Mary can defeat Lefayette, that St. Francis-PA can handle Georgetown with ease, and that the student athletes from the military school The Citadel may get a chance to hone their obliteration skills against poor Davidson, owners of the worst Sagarin rating in Division 1.
(And there are eighteen games where an FCS team dips down into Division II to open the season. Ask me if I care.)
Saturday, July 4, 2015
Bo knows soccer...which is why he never played it...
Tried to watch the Germany/England third place game in the Women's World Cup. Gave up and switched over to the ESPN 30-for-30 on the legendary Bo Jackson, the greatest athlete of the last hundred years. (We can discuss Jim Thorpe another day.) The Wikipedia article hits most of the high points of the ESPN piece by Michael Bonaglio, which reminds us how incredible Bo was.
Jeremy Schaap of ESPN says something in the piece which is both revealing and sad:
"Bo came along at exactly the right time...(besides the birth of cable sports, which let us see his highlights every night,) If someone with his size, speed, and strength came along today, we'd always suspect he was on steroids or growth hormones or something. Not with Bo, not then."
Will we ever have that sheer wonder over an athlete again? Or will we simply wonder what drugs he's on? (Is that why we can be thrilled with American Pharoah? We know the horse isn't on drugs?) That's tragic.
Oh. I did eventually go back for the end of the futbol game. An hour later, it was still 0-0. (Excuse me: "nil-nil".) Then England got a penalty shot, which in the women's game is virtually unstoppable, which makes perfect sense in a game where there's virtually never any other score. So, England won, 1-0, on a single penalty shot, negating the rest of the match. Remind me again why I should watch soccer?
Jeremy Schaap of ESPN says something in the piece which is both revealing and sad:
"Bo came along at exactly the right time...(besides the birth of cable sports, which let us see his highlights every night,) If someone with his size, speed, and strength came along today, we'd always suspect he was on steroids or growth hormones or something. Not with Bo, not then."
Will we ever have that sheer wonder over an athlete again? Or will we simply wonder what drugs he's on? (Is that why we can be thrilled with American Pharoah? We know the horse isn't on drugs?) That's tragic.
Oh. I did eventually go back for the end of the futbol game. An hour later, it was still 0-0. (Excuse me: "nil-nil".) Then England got a penalty shot, which in the women's game is virtually unstoppable, which makes perfect sense in a game where there's virtually never any other score. So, England won, 1-0, on a single penalty shot, negating the rest of the match. Remind me again why I should watch soccer?
Friday, May 29, 2015
Is it too early to talk Top 30 in college football?
Yes. Yes it is.
However, Sports Illustrated doesn't think so, and they've put out their "post-spring camp Top 25" plus five more, and it's an interesting list to peruse...
1. Ohio State 11. Stanford 21. Georgia Tech
2. Baylor 12. Ole Miss 22. Oklahoma
3. Auburn 13. Arizona 23. BYU
4. Alabama 14. USC 24. LSU
5. Michigan St 15. Boise State 25. Oklahoma St
6. TCU 16. Clemson 26. Arkansas
7. Notre Dame 17. Missouri 27. Utah
8. UCLA 18. Georgia 28. Mississippi St
9. Florida St 19. Arizona St 29. Texas
10. Oregon 20. Wisconsin 30. Michigan
I find this list absolutely fascinating to contemplate, which is why I post it. At Following Football, we do NOT rank football teams until somewhen in mid-October at the earliest. What we do do is group teams into what we call "tiers"; eventually there'll be about twenty tiers, A through T or so, even when they're ranked (that's also how we project game outcomes) but at the very beginning of the season? We'll divide them up into two, three, four tiers...then six or seven...then maybe eight or ten..until we have enough information to rank them all, #1-127. (UAB football, rest in peace.)
But about THIS list? Look at these crunchy tidbits!
> Auburn 3 and Alabama 4? Delicious!
> OSU deserves #1, but MSU isn't very far behind at #5...
> Baylor at 2 and TCU way back at 6? But TCU's the one bringing their QB back!
> How about this one? Everett Golson goes to perennial playoff contender Florida St, #9... but the team he left is #7!
> Look at the Pac-12! UCLA #8, Oregon #10, Stanford #11, Arizona #13, USC #14, and Arizona State at #19! (Even Utah sneaking in at 27!) THAT will be a packed conference!
> The "Group of Five" better figure out a way to defeat Boise State! They start the season ranked this year...even a loss or two may not knock them out of the top non-Power spot! (Only BYU sits on the list, at #23, to challenge.)
> Oklahoma 22 and Okee State 25? Fun!
> Arkansas 26 and Texas 29? (Or OU/UT? Or...)
> And look who they've got sneaking in at #30! High hopes, indeed, Mr. Harbaugh!
However, Sports Illustrated doesn't think so, and they've put out their "post-spring camp Top 25" plus five more, and it's an interesting list to peruse...
1. Ohio State 11. Stanford 21. Georgia Tech
2. Baylor 12. Ole Miss 22. Oklahoma
3. Auburn 13. Arizona 23. BYU
4. Alabama 14. USC 24. LSU
5. Michigan St 15. Boise State 25. Oklahoma St
6. TCU 16. Clemson 26. Arkansas
7. Notre Dame 17. Missouri 27. Utah
8. UCLA 18. Georgia 28. Mississippi St
9. Florida St 19. Arizona St 29. Texas
10. Oregon 20. Wisconsin 30. Michigan
I find this list absolutely fascinating to contemplate, which is why I post it. At Following Football, we do NOT rank football teams until somewhen in mid-October at the earliest. What we do do is group teams into what we call "tiers"; eventually there'll be about twenty tiers, A through T or so, even when they're ranked (that's also how we project game outcomes) but at the very beginning of the season? We'll divide them up into two, three, four tiers...then six or seven...then maybe eight or ten..until we have enough information to rank them all, #1-127. (UAB football, rest in peace.)
But about THIS list? Look at these crunchy tidbits!
> Auburn 3 and Alabama 4? Delicious!
> OSU deserves #1, but MSU isn't very far behind at #5...
> Baylor at 2 and TCU way back at 6? But TCU's the one bringing their QB back!
> How about this one? Everett Golson goes to perennial playoff contender Florida St, #9... but the team he left is #7!
> Look at the Pac-12! UCLA #8, Oregon #10, Stanford #11, Arizona #13, USC #14, and Arizona State at #19! (Even Utah sneaking in at 27!) THAT will be a packed conference!
> The "Group of Five" better figure out a way to defeat Boise State! They start the season ranked this year...even a loss or two may not knock them out of the top non-Power spot! (Only BYU sits on the list, at #23, to challenge.)
> Oklahoma 22 and Okee State 25? Fun!
> Arkansas 26 and Texas 29? (Or OU/UT? Or...)
> And look who they've got sneaking in at #30! High hopes, indeed, Mr. Harbaugh!
Wednesday, January 21, 2015
Thursday, January 1, 2015
New Year's Six bowl games in progress!
JAN 1 UPDATE: Watching three really great bowl games simultaneously: Wisconsin finding a way to come back and defeat Auburn 34-31, using a heavy dose of Melvin Gordon running wild, as he has against everyone except Playoff contenders, it seems...Minnesota's Maxx Williams hurdling Missouri players en route to a touchdown...Baylor's Bryce Petty throwing touchdowns to targets large and small, including a 400-pound target "wearing" a receiver's number as a half shirt!
There were some WILD plays in the Citrus Bowl - click on www.espn.com and watch the highlights of the Minnesota/Missouri game: weird fumbles, hurdled defenders, you name it. For that matter, the Baylor/MSU game's got some great plays to show you as well! (And if you like great running, watch Wisconsin's highlights while you're there!)
Weird! As Baylor is trying to run out the clock, one score up on the Spartans, and they have a great run down to the five negated by an offensive facemask by the runner! Fortunately, they still got the first down, but Michigan St blocked the field goal attempt that would have iced the game, getting one more shot at the winning touchdown with 65 seconds to go!
What an AMAZING comeback for Michigan State, blocking a field goal and then getting down the field in 47 seconds to score and kick what looks like the winning extra point with seventeen seconds left. It's hard not to picture TCU fans celebrating the karmic vengeance of Baylor's bowl opponent to come back from 21 down, just like the Bears did to THEM in the fourth quarter to win 61-58, the most famous score of the year!
Florida State sure is suffering from bad luck/execution in its clash against Oregon! Getting stuck at the six inch line, on replay, no less, and shooting themselves in the foot with penalties and mistakes...down 11-3 at the moment. Maybe they're just setting the stage for more Jamies-magic in the fourth quarter?
HEY, SEMINOLES! HANG ON TO THE BALL! Oregon now leads 39-20 after two outright swipes of FSU runners in the third quarter.
Amazing to hear Kirk Herbstreit say on a national TV broadcast, "Florida State has quit. I can't believe I'm saying it, but they have shut - it - down, early in the fourth quarter." Sad thing is, he may be right. 59-20, five FSU turnovers, all converted into TDs. The last two scores, it looked like the Oregon runners (Mariota, then Tyner) simply ran through the Seminole D like it wasn't there.
Weird statistic: the ONLY team out of the 128 FBS teams that has not converted a single fourth down this year....is Florida State, odd considering their penchant for late comebacks which so often for most teams seems to involve fourth down conversions. And so far, it's still true.
Alabama/Ohio State was such a great game, with two teams which remembered they were great (ahem, Florida St!). Congratulations to the Buckeyes, condolensces to the Tide, and lookong forward to a lot of P on the 12th (get it? O?).
DEC 31: So far, this looks like Revenge of the Little Guys, starting with TCU and their annihilation of the poor Ole Miss Rebels, 42-3, as they looked faster on offense, defense, and on special teams. Now, just ten minutes into the game, Boise State leads Arizona 21-0, with three brilliant touchdowns including Jay Ajayi's "Statue of Liberty redux".
Amazing to see how a game can change from one half to the next! First half, Boise had 400 yards, Hedrick was 17-18, and they scored 31 points. Second half, Boise's offense hasn't scored, under a hundred yards gained, and up one TD with three minutes to go....
Fourth and one, Arizona's QB Anu Solomon kinda hands off to Grigsby...actually, he hung on to the ball and ran WITH his running back through the line. "First time I've ever seen the quarterback make the tackle!", said the TV commentator...
Never been so glad to be wrong in our lives...Arizona's Anu Solomon does the only thing he could not do - let himself get tackled in bounds, and let the clock run out without taking one last shot at the end zone. As it was, Boise St wins their third straight Fiesta Bowl, all as an underdog, this one 38-30. Next: Mississippi St and Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl!
Hard not to be impressed with GT's balanced attack - for the premier running team in the nation, the Yellowjackets put together a very nice passing game that attacked MSU just when they weren't ready for it. Both QBs were outstanding, and it's hard not to be sad for such a phenomenal season for Mississippi St to end on such a down note.
There were some WILD plays in the Citrus Bowl - click on www.espn.com and watch the highlights of the Minnesota/Missouri game: weird fumbles, hurdled defenders, you name it. For that matter, the Baylor/MSU game's got some great plays to show you as well! (And if you like great running, watch Wisconsin's highlights while you're there!)
Weird! As Baylor is trying to run out the clock, one score up on the Spartans, and they have a great run down to the five negated by an offensive facemask by the runner! Fortunately, they still got the first down, but Michigan St blocked the field goal attempt that would have iced the game, getting one more shot at the winning touchdown with 65 seconds to go!
What an AMAZING comeback for Michigan State, blocking a field goal and then getting down the field in 47 seconds to score and kick what looks like the winning extra point with seventeen seconds left. It's hard not to picture TCU fans celebrating the karmic vengeance of Baylor's bowl opponent to come back from 21 down, just like the Bears did to THEM in the fourth quarter to win 61-58, the most famous score of the year!
Florida State sure is suffering from bad luck/execution in its clash against Oregon! Getting stuck at the six inch line, on replay, no less, and shooting themselves in the foot with penalties and mistakes...down 11-3 at the moment. Maybe they're just setting the stage for more Jamies-magic in the fourth quarter?
HEY, SEMINOLES! HANG ON TO THE BALL! Oregon now leads 39-20 after two outright swipes of FSU runners in the third quarter.
Amazing to hear Kirk Herbstreit say on a national TV broadcast, "Florida State has quit. I can't believe I'm saying it, but they have shut - it - down, early in the fourth quarter." Sad thing is, he may be right. 59-20, five FSU turnovers, all converted into TDs. The last two scores, it looked like the Oregon runners (Mariota, then Tyner) simply ran through the Seminole D like it wasn't there.
Weird statistic: the ONLY team out of the 128 FBS teams that has not converted a single fourth down this year....is Florida State, odd considering their penchant for late comebacks which so often for most teams seems to involve fourth down conversions. And so far, it's still true.
Alabama/Ohio State was such a great game, with two teams which remembered they were great (ahem, Florida St!). Congratulations to the Buckeyes, condolensces to the Tide, and lookong forward to a lot of P on the 12th (get it? O?).
DEC 31: So far, this looks like Revenge of the Little Guys, starting with TCU and their annihilation of the poor Ole Miss Rebels, 42-3, as they looked faster on offense, defense, and on special teams. Now, just ten minutes into the game, Boise State leads Arizona 21-0, with three brilliant touchdowns including Jay Ajayi's "Statue of Liberty redux".
Amazing to see how a game can change from one half to the next! First half, Boise had 400 yards, Hedrick was 17-18, and they scored 31 points. Second half, Boise's offense hasn't scored, under a hundred yards gained, and up one TD with three minutes to go....
Fourth and one, Arizona's QB Anu Solomon kinda hands off to Grigsby...actually, he hung on to the ball and ran WITH his running back through the line. "First time I've ever seen the quarterback make the tackle!", said the TV commentator...
Never been so glad to be wrong in our lives...Arizona's Anu Solomon does the only thing he could not do - let himself get tackled in bounds, and let the clock run out without taking one last shot at the end zone. As it was, Boise St wins their third straight Fiesta Bowl, all as an underdog, this one 38-30. Next: Mississippi St and Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl!
Hard not to be impressed with GT's balanced attack - for the premier running team in the nation, the Yellowjackets put together a very nice passing game that attacked MSU just when they weren't ready for it. Both QBs were outstanding, and it's hard not to be sad for such a phenomenal season for Mississippi St to end on such a down note.
Saturday, December 13, 2014
In one of the least shocking election results of the year...
...Marcus Mariota of the Oregon Ducks won the Heisman Trophy tonight as the outstanding ball-handling college football player from a really good team in the country. (Don't deny it. That's what it's been.) Mostly, it's been quarterbacks over the years, especially the last decade-plus, when except for 'Bama's Mark Ingram, every winner in years starting with a "2" has been a quarterback.
The top players at each position were singled out over the past week at the various award shindigs, with these consensuses (consensi?) reached:
Top quarterback: Marcus Mariota, Oregon. Lots of great QBs out there - why, Ohio St has a slough of them! - but Mariota absolutely deserves every accolade he gets.
Top running back: Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin. Great from start to finish, but it was his 408 in three quarter against the vaunted "Blackshirts" that was his Mona Lisa.
Top receiver: Amari Cooper, Alabama. In a year of great receivers - and great FRESHMAN receivers in particular! - Cooper lived up to his hype week after week, and deserved his moment in the Heisman spotlight today.
Top tight end: Nick O'Leary, Florida St. A great TE is ideally both a great blocker AND has great receiving skills. O'Leary does.
Top center: Reese Dismukes, Auburn. We'll be honest: we have no idea who the best offensive linemen are. But we know which teams have the best lines, and Auburn and Iowa certainly are on that short list.
Top interior lineman: Brandon Scherff, Iowa.
Top defensive player: Scooby Wright, Arizona. A spectacular player. Magnetized to the ball, as he always seems to be around it. But it wasn't one of those years when there was a serious defensive threat to the MVP campaigns of Mariota and others, as there is on the NFL side.
Top defensive end: Nate Orchard, Utah.
Top linebacker: Eric Kendricks, UCLA.
Top defensive back: Gerod Hollimon, Louisville.
Top placekicker: Brad Craddock, Maryland. This was our biggest surprise - Robert Agouyo at Florida St was the defending "best" and certainly didn't do anything to lose the title.
Top punter: Tom Hackett, Utah. As an Aussie football player, Hackett's skills there serve him extremely well punting - not kicking for height but to place the ball where he wants to place it.
Top scholar/athlete: David Helton, Duke.
Top coach: Gary Patterson, TCU. As always, a crowded field: hard not to include both Mississippi coaches, Jerry Kill at Minnesota, David Cutcliffe at Duke, Paul Johnson at GT, Urban Meyer at Ohio St... But Patterson may have been the only one who transformed his own style to fit the circumstance, to great success.
Do you agree? Comment and let us know!
The top players at each position were singled out over the past week at the various award shindigs, with these consensuses (consensi?) reached:
Top quarterback: Marcus Mariota, Oregon. Lots of great QBs out there - why, Ohio St has a slough of them! - but Mariota absolutely deserves every accolade he gets.
Top running back: Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin. Great from start to finish, but it was his 408 in three quarter against the vaunted "Blackshirts" that was his Mona Lisa.
Top receiver: Amari Cooper, Alabama. In a year of great receivers - and great FRESHMAN receivers in particular! - Cooper lived up to his hype week after week, and deserved his moment in the Heisman spotlight today.
Top tight end: Nick O'Leary, Florida St. A great TE is ideally both a great blocker AND has great receiving skills. O'Leary does.
Top center: Reese Dismukes, Auburn. We'll be honest: we have no idea who the best offensive linemen are. But we know which teams have the best lines, and Auburn and Iowa certainly are on that short list.
Top interior lineman: Brandon Scherff, Iowa.
Top defensive player: Scooby Wright, Arizona. A spectacular player. Magnetized to the ball, as he always seems to be around it. But it wasn't one of those years when there was a serious defensive threat to the MVP campaigns of Mariota and others, as there is on the NFL side.
Top defensive end: Nate Orchard, Utah.
Top linebacker: Eric Kendricks, UCLA.
Top defensive back: Gerod Hollimon, Louisville.
Top placekicker: Brad Craddock, Maryland. This was our biggest surprise - Robert Agouyo at Florida St was the defending "best" and certainly didn't do anything to lose the title.
Top punter: Tom Hackett, Utah. As an Aussie football player, Hackett's skills there serve him extremely well punting - not kicking for height but to place the ball where he wants to place it.
Top scholar/athlete: David Helton, Duke.
Top coach: Gary Patterson, TCU. As always, a crowded field: hard not to include both Mississippi coaches, Jerry Kill at Minnesota, David Cutcliffe at Duke, Paul Johnson at GT, Urban Meyer at Ohio St... But Patterson may have been the only one who transformed his own style to fit the circumstance, to great success.
Do you agree? Comment and let us know!
Sunday, November 30, 2014
UAB ELIMINATES FOOTBALL! Idiocy Cited!
As elucidated here in Sports Illustrated, the University of Alabama board of trustees has voted to eliminate football at the UA-Birmingham campus - like, basically right now, following their impending bowl game now that first year head coach Bill Clark and long time AD Brian Mackin have brought the program back up to respectability at 6-6.
Let me repeat that.
The UAB Blazers, having spent years trying to build this football program, having hired a tremendous young and up-n-coming coach who's done great things with a young team this year, just had the rug pulled out from under them.
As Thayer Evans points out, there were warning signs that fueled the rumors all season...why won't they extend Clark's contract?...why hasn't Mackin put any more non-conference games on the schedule beyond next season?
But the nastier rumors swirl beneath the surface, and they're worse than the pay-the-players scandals and the sinecure-jobs-for-athletes tales we fear: the University of Alabama trustees were afraid of any competition for the affections of the state with the Crimson Tide of Tuscaloosa. Gene Bartow's role is discussed in Evans' article, but there's a down-South, good-ol'-boy network at play that's downright frightening. As if the University of Auburn isn't competition enough, we don't want no young whippersnappers pulling the carpetbaggers out from under us. This seems to have been brewing for a while - those non-conference games should have been scheduled three years ago. (Most teams have at least some games scheduled into the 2020's.)
Look out, South Alabama and Troy. You're next. Ain't NO one gonna stand in the path of Lord Saban and the Tide...
Let me repeat that.
The UAB Blazers, having spent years trying to build this football program, having hired a tremendous young and up-n-coming coach who's done great things with a young team this year, just had the rug pulled out from under them.
As Thayer Evans points out, there were warning signs that fueled the rumors all season...why won't they extend Clark's contract?...why hasn't Mackin put any more non-conference games on the schedule beyond next season?
But the nastier rumors swirl beneath the surface, and they're worse than the pay-the-players scandals and the sinecure-jobs-for-athletes tales we fear: the University of Alabama trustees were afraid of any competition for the affections of the state with the Crimson Tide of Tuscaloosa. Gene Bartow's role is discussed in Evans' article, but there's a down-South, good-ol'-boy network at play that's downright frightening. As if the University of Auburn isn't competition enough, we don't want no young whippersnappers pulling the carpetbaggers out from under us. This seems to have been brewing for a while - those non-conference games should have been scheduled three years ago. (Most teams have at least some games scheduled into the 2020's.)
Look out, South Alabama and Troy. You're next. Ain't NO one gonna stand in the path of Lord Saban and the Tide...
Saturday, November 29, 2014
What is a rivalry?
A rivalry is NOT someone you compete against every season.
It is NOT just proximity.
It is NOT hatred, enmity, or animosity.
It is NOT sharing a conference, a city, or a state.
What a rivalry IS...is a pair of teams who can literally "throw out the records" whenever they play.
Consider the games today: Ohio St v Michigan, which was 17-22 points in the Buckeyes' favored column...way too much for a rivalry game. Currently 28-21 OSU, back and forth all game long....Kentucky v Louisville, in which UL was favored by 9-14, but which was at 28-26 in the fourth last check....Georgia Tech v Georgia, where underdog GT leads 21-17 with under three to go...and apparently the two teams brought into the Pac-12 together, Utah v Colorado, where the Utes should have won rather easily but the Buffaloes lead by two in the third quarter. Watching the Civil War tonight (Oregon v Oregon St) or the most fascinating intersectional rivalry in football, Notre Dame v USC, or either of the SEC matchups: Mississippi St/Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl (games w names usually are trying to be rivalries!) and the Iron Bowl which cannot top last year's everevereverever, Auburn v Alabama.
There are certainly other examples: Arizona/Arizona St (42-35 yesterday), Stanford/Cal, UCLA/USC, Harvard/Yale, Florida St/Miami-Fl, and you can probably name many of your own. Sometimes they arise from personality meshes: in the NFL, New England v Indianapolis were big rivals because they were both top of the division teams, but more because they had Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, the two great quarterbacks of their generation.
And sometimes, rivalries are manufactured - rarely successfully, but once in a while... For example, Nebraska entering the Big Ten, they're playing new teams up and down their schedule, and so there are several teams who might serve as a rival for them. But, watching the wild game against Iowa yesterday (which went to overtime before UN won 37-34), they may have found a rival after all!
Sometimes, rivalries can die, too: it used to be that Boise St v Idaho was one of the great unsung rivalries in the nation, through there D2 days, then the Big Sky days, then they move up into the Big West together in the FBS, and finally into the WAC....but as the Broncos continued to improve, winning conference championships left and right, the Vandals sputtered to losing seasons, fell out of conferences altogether for a year before scrambling back into the low-level Sun Belt and a 1-10 season again this year. When Boise won its tenth or twelfth straight over U of I, it became clear that the critical element of "any given day" was long gone. And therefore, so was the rivalry. There were still sports where the two teams are rivals, but not in football.
It is NOT just proximity.
It is NOT hatred, enmity, or animosity.
It is NOT sharing a conference, a city, or a state.
What a rivalry IS...is a pair of teams who can literally "throw out the records" whenever they play.
Consider the games today: Ohio St v Michigan, which was 17-22 points in the Buckeyes' favored column...way too much for a rivalry game. Currently 28-21 OSU, back and forth all game long....Kentucky v Louisville, in which UL was favored by 9-14, but which was at 28-26 in the fourth last check....Georgia Tech v Georgia, where underdog GT leads 21-17 with under three to go...and apparently the two teams brought into the Pac-12 together, Utah v Colorado, where the Utes should have won rather easily but the Buffaloes lead by two in the third quarter. Watching the Civil War tonight (Oregon v Oregon St) or the most fascinating intersectional rivalry in football, Notre Dame v USC, or either of the SEC matchups: Mississippi St/Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl (games w names usually are trying to be rivalries!) and the Iron Bowl which cannot top last year's everevereverever, Auburn v Alabama.
There are certainly other examples: Arizona/Arizona St (42-35 yesterday), Stanford/Cal, UCLA/USC, Harvard/Yale, Florida St/Miami-Fl, and you can probably name many of your own. Sometimes they arise from personality meshes: in the NFL, New England v Indianapolis were big rivals because they were both top of the division teams, but more because they had Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, the two great quarterbacks of their generation.
And sometimes, rivalries are manufactured - rarely successfully, but once in a while... For example, Nebraska entering the Big Ten, they're playing new teams up and down their schedule, and so there are several teams who might serve as a rival for them. But, watching the wild game against Iowa yesterday (which went to overtime before UN won 37-34), they may have found a rival after all!
Sometimes, rivalries can die, too: it used to be that Boise St v Idaho was one of the great unsung rivalries in the nation, through there D2 days, then the Big Sky days, then they move up into the Big West together in the FBS, and finally into the WAC....but as the Broncos continued to improve, winning conference championships left and right, the Vandals sputtered to losing seasons, fell out of conferences altogether for a year before scrambling back into the low-level Sun Belt and a 1-10 season again this year. When Boise won its tenth or twelfth straight over U of I, it became clear that the critical element of "any given day" was long gone. And therefore, so was the rivalry. There were still sports where the two teams are rivals, but not in football.
Wednesday, November 12, 2014
Ever take a look at the Massey Index?
No, it's not a money-market fund, nor a government economic indicator. It's the composite of 121 different rating systems from all across the country, in an attempt to derive the ultimate "meta-ranking", the consensus of all the polls and surveys and computer rankings and "systems" as best Kenneth Massey can do. Take a look - it's amazing! (It's also overload, if you're not ready for it!)
A few things to notice...
1. Their top four are Alabama, Mississippi St, Oregon, and TCU. (The one difference is that we have Oregon 5th, and Florida St in the top 4. Massey lists them seventh.)
2. The SEC has strength. They have the top two (it was the top four last week!), four of the top six, and six of the top 12. Within that top twelve, there are also two Pac-12 schools, two Big-12 schools, an ACC rep and one from the Big-10.
3. Marshall is 21st. (We have them in Tier E, which is #25-30.) Following them, the next highest "Group Of Five" school is Boise St, at #30.
4. Records aren't all that important. It depends who you played...and more often, whom you beat. #1 Alabama has a loss, and the three undefeated teams are #2, #7, and #21. Two-loss Auburn and Ole Miss are #5 and #6, respectively, and three-loss LSU is #12. (So, you can lose, if you're losing to top-ten SEC teams...)
5. There are teams the Massey Index loves - Louisiana Tech is all the way up in #39, whereas we have them in Tier K, equivalent to #61-66 - and there are teams that really sink in this ranking, like South Florida, whom we have in Tier P (#97-100). They come in at #111, just above Tier S Hawaii and just behind Tier R- Southern Miss.
6. #128 is not SMU! Despite being the only winless team in the entirety of FBS, the woeful Mustangs are only #127...Georgia St gets the honor of falling just below them into the cellar (and it's not really close). At least they were also a Bottom Six team (actually, we only had a Bottom Five in tier U this week) - and those five teams come in at spots #123, 124, 126, 127, and 128, with only Tier T Eastern Michigan disturbing the sweep at #125.
A few things to notice...
1. Their top four are Alabama, Mississippi St, Oregon, and TCU. (The one difference is that we have Oregon 5th, and Florida St in the top 4. Massey lists them seventh.)
2. The SEC has strength. They have the top two (it was the top four last week!), four of the top six, and six of the top 12. Within that top twelve, there are also two Pac-12 schools, two Big-12 schools, an ACC rep and one from the Big-10.
3. Marshall is 21st. (We have them in Tier E, which is #25-30.) Following them, the next highest "Group Of Five" school is Boise St, at #30.
4. Records aren't all that important. It depends who you played...and more often, whom you beat. #1 Alabama has a loss, and the three undefeated teams are #2, #7, and #21. Two-loss Auburn and Ole Miss are #5 and #6, respectively, and three-loss LSU is #12. (So, you can lose, if you're losing to top-ten SEC teams...)
5. There are teams the Massey Index loves - Louisiana Tech is all the way up in #39, whereas we have them in Tier K, equivalent to #61-66 - and there are teams that really sink in this ranking, like South Florida, whom we have in Tier P (#97-100). They come in at #111, just above Tier S Hawaii and just behind Tier R- Southern Miss.
6. #128 is not SMU! Despite being the only winless team in the entirety of FBS, the woeful Mustangs are only #127...Georgia St gets the honor of falling just below them into the cellar (and it's not really close). At least they were also a Bottom Six team (actually, we only had a Bottom Five in tier U this week) - and those five teams come in at spots #123, 124, 126, 127, and 128, with only Tier T Eastern Michigan disturbing the sweep at #125.
Saturday, November 8, 2014
What an insane afternoon of football!!!!
Auburn, how do you fumble on a spike play? Two fumbles in the last four hikes; the first recovery may be questionable, but the second...wow, what a devastating way to lose for their center.
Here's what a bottom-feeder "come from behind victory" looks like: Appalachian St had the ball inside the twenty under two minutes, down by a point, looking to defeat UL-Monroe...and threw three straight incompletions. Made the FG, luckily.
Northwestern, and coach Pat Fitzgerald: you've got balls. Down 10-9, having scored a TD with three seconds to go in the game, they went for two and the win, not the XP and overtime. Just because it failed doesn't make it a bad decision.
Arizona St had two pick-sixes against Notre Dame, the last one ugly - Notre Dame's Corey Robinson looks away before catching the ball, and then bats the ball upwards perfectly for Lloyd Carrington to pick and six it. Under coach Todd Graham, ASU is 7-6 against ranked opponents; before that, they were 5-41!
We're not sure we're all that impressed with Ole Miss' performance against lower-level Presbyterian today: yes, seven of their drives resulted in TDs, but the others were two missed FGs, two missed fourth downs, one interception, and one which ended the game. Eh...
Michigan @ Northwestern, by the way, hit halftime tied at zero. Only three games in the FBS have had scoreless first halves this season...and two of them were at Northwestern. (The other was against Northern Illinois.) The two Wildcat scoring drives were 14 plays for 74 yards, and 19 plays for 95 yards. By the way, the 19 play drive was the field goal drive!
Texas A&M was a 23 point underdog on the road, so it was going to take some breaks to beat Auburn today. They got some late - the new definition of "buttfumble", discussed above - but also early, where they scored on a 60-yard pass on the fourth play, recovered an Auburn fumble on the fifth play, and scored on another long pass on the eighth play. 14-0. They ALSO got a break in the middle: on a long Auburn FG attempt to end the first half, a stray hand in the middle happened to hit the flight of the ball, an A&M player happened to retrieve it on the bounce, and he made it to the end zone (again, last play of the half: he had to) to switch from 28-20 to a 35-17 lead. PS: Texas A&M won by three.
The two major teams from the state of GEORGIA were insanely efficient today! For the Georgia Bulldogs, the only drives in which they did NOT score a touchdown were at the end of each half - meaning they never turned the ball over, never punted, and converted every set of downs, in winning 63-31 over Kentucky. Meanwhile, the Georgia Tech Yellowjackets went to North Carolina St and possessed the ball a mere eight times: six touchdown drives, one fumble, and one 12-play drive that ended the game. To compare, somehow the Wolfpack had eleven drives, because two of those ended in touchdowns for GT instead in the 56-23 victory.
An interesting quote from the ESPN.com coverage of Penn St's victory over Indiana 13-7: "(Bill) Belton's fifth score of the year came on a 92-yard run and was the longest rushing touchdown by a single player in Penn St history." [our emphasis]
While you ponder what that means, we read much farther down the article: "Back in 1973, the Nittany Lions scored on a 92-yard play, but that was by two players and included a fumble." OOOOOhhhhhhh....
Somehow, Baylor had not beaten a top 25 team on the road in 38 attempts, or since 1991. After Oklahoma took a 14-3 into the second quarter, the Bears scored the last 45 points to walk away with the game, 48-14.
A poignant moment: OU's quarterback Trevor Knight went out of the game in the fourth with a scary injury, undiagnosed publicly last we heard. While he was being tended to, several Baylor players (including QB Bryce Petty) went to Knight's brother Connor and prayed with him on the field.
Here's what a bottom-feeder "come from behind victory" looks like: Appalachian St had the ball inside the twenty under two minutes, down by a point, looking to defeat UL-Monroe...and threw three straight incompletions. Made the FG, luckily.
Northwestern, and coach Pat Fitzgerald: you've got balls. Down 10-9, having scored a TD with three seconds to go in the game, they went for two and the win, not the XP and overtime. Just because it failed doesn't make it a bad decision.
Arizona St had two pick-sixes against Notre Dame, the last one ugly - Notre Dame's Corey Robinson looks away before catching the ball, and then bats the ball upwards perfectly for Lloyd Carrington to pick and six it. Under coach Todd Graham, ASU is 7-6 against ranked opponents; before that, they were 5-41!
We're not sure we're all that impressed with Ole Miss' performance against lower-level Presbyterian today: yes, seven of their drives resulted in TDs, but the others were two missed FGs, two missed fourth downs, one interception, and one which ended the game. Eh...
Michigan @ Northwestern, by the way, hit halftime tied at zero. Only three games in the FBS have had scoreless first halves this season...and two of them were at Northwestern. (The other was against Northern Illinois.) The two Wildcat scoring drives were 14 plays for 74 yards, and 19 plays for 95 yards. By the way, the 19 play drive was the field goal drive!
Texas A&M was a 23 point underdog on the road, so it was going to take some breaks to beat Auburn today. They got some late - the new definition of "buttfumble", discussed above - but also early, where they scored on a 60-yard pass on the fourth play, recovered an Auburn fumble on the fifth play, and scored on another long pass on the eighth play. 14-0. They ALSO got a break in the middle: on a long Auburn FG attempt to end the first half, a stray hand in the middle happened to hit the flight of the ball, an A&M player happened to retrieve it on the bounce, and he made it to the end zone (again, last play of the half: he had to) to switch from 28-20 to a 35-17 lead. PS: Texas A&M won by three.
The two major teams from the state of GEORGIA were insanely efficient today! For the Georgia Bulldogs, the only drives in which they did NOT score a touchdown were at the end of each half - meaning they never turned the ball over, never punted, and converted every set of downs, in winning 63-31 over Kentucky. Meanwhile, the Georgia Tech Yellowjackets went to North Carolina St and possessed the ball a mere eight times: six touchdown drives, one fumble, and one 12-play drive that ended the game. To compare, somehow the Wolfpack had eleven drives, because two of those ended in touchdowns for GT instead in the 56-23 victory.
An interesting quote from the ESPN.com coverage of Penn St's victory over Indiana 13-7: "(Bill) Belton's fifth score of the year came on a 92-yard run and was the longest rushing touchdown by a single player in Penn St history." [our emphasis]
While you ponder what that means, we read much farther down the article: "Back in 1973, the Nittany Lions scored on a 92-yard play, but that was by two players and included a fumble." OOOOOhhhhhhh....
Somehow, Baylor had not beaten a top 25 team on the road in 38 attempts, or since 1991. After Oklahoma took a 14-3 into the second quarter, the Bears scored the last 45 points to walk away with the game, 48-14.
A poignant moment: OU's quarterback Trevor Knight went out of the game in the fourth with a scary injury, undiagnosed publicly last we heard. While he was being tended to, several Baylor players (including QB Bryce Petty) went to Knight's brother Connor and prayed with him on the field.
Ah, it's GOOD to be the king...
As Saturday morning progresses and we get ready for the weekly onslaught of college football (glorious!), we pause to check the morning betting lines - only to find that the public sees the games the way WE do, not as Vegas does!
Seemingly EVERY point spread that's shifted has done so in the direction our Following Football tiers would dictate! Increased spreads for LaTech, Duke, Oregon St, Boise St, and UCLA, for example, match our own predictions; a reversal in the Fresno/San Jose nightcap (the Dogs are now a home favorite) and a reduction inMichigan's gap also testify to our sentiments. The glaring difference, Auburn's predicted margin over A&M, is justified by the QB issues in Aggieville.
Add to that the Memphis/Temple game last night, which we called even rather than a TD spread, hit halftime 10-10, was tied at 13 one second from the death, and was won by a FG for Memphis on the last play...and we feel pretty cocky this morning!
Seemingly EVERY point spread that's shifted has done so in the direction our Following Football tiers would dictate! Increased spreads for LaTech, Duke, Oregon St, Boise St, and UCLA, for example, match our own predictions; a reversal in the Fresno/San Jose nightcap (the Dogs are now a home favorite) and a reduction inMichigan's gap also testify to our sentiments. The glaring difference, Auburn's predicted margin over A&M, is justified by the QB issues in Aggieville.
Add to that the Memphis/Temple game last night, which we called even rather than a TD spread, hit halftime 10-10, was tied at 13 one second from the death, and was won by a FG for Memphis on the last play...and we feel pretty cocky this morning!
Tuesday, November 4, 2014
You want chaos? Pat Forde'll show you chaos!
Copied straight from today's "Forde-Yard Dash" column: the method for a five way tie in the vaunted SEC West. He also details the situations in the Big Ten, the old Big East, the ACC and Mountain West; and then revisits twelve of the most devastating plays in CFB history (after the way that Treadwell broke his leg in losing the ball and the touchdown and the game for Ole Miss Saturday).
FIVE-WAY TIE IN THE SEC WEST? DARE TO DREAM
As an avowed sower of discord and champion of chaos, here is exactly what The Dash wants to see happen over the next four weeks:
LSU (7) wins out. The Tigers would finish 10-2 overall, 6-2 in the SEC, with victories over Alabama and Ole Miss and losses to Auburn and Mississippi State.
Alabama (8) loses Saturday in Baton Rouge, then wins out to finish 10-2 overall, 6-2 in the SEC. The Crimson Tide would have wins over Mississippi State and Auburn, and losses to Mississippi and LSU.
Auburn (9) defeats Georgia on Nov. 15, but loses to Alabama in the Iron Bowl to finish 10-2 overall, 6-2 in the SEC. The Tigers would have wins over LSU and Ole Miss, and losses to Mississippi State and Alabama.
Mississippi (10) regroups from the disastrous ending Saturday night to win out and finish 10-2 overall, 6-2 in the SEC. The Rebels would have wins over Alabama and Mississippi State, and losses to LSU and Auburn.
Mississippi State (11) finally falls, losing on the road to Alabama on Nov. 15 and in the Egg Bowl on Nov. 29, finishing 10-2 overall, 6-2 in the SEC. The Bulldogs would have wins over LSU and Auburn, and losses to Alabama and Ole Miss.
And there you’d have it: five teams with identical records, and all with 2-2 marks against each other. No massive upsets required the rest of the way, just a lot of teams defending home field. Let the SEC have fun with that tiebreaker.
By The Dash’s reading of the league’s guidelines, it could come down to the seventh tiebreaker: conference winning percentage of non-divisional opponents. As it stands today, these are your numbers there: Auburn 6-7 (Georgia and South Carolina); LSU 5-7 (Florida and Kentucky); Alabama 4-7 (Florida and Tennessee); Mississippi State 2-9 (Kentucky and Vanderbilt); Mississippi 1-9 (Tennessee and Vanderbilt).
If it somehow gets to the eighth tiebreaker? That’s a coin flip. And if it comes to that, the South may not survive.
Here’s what else might not survive: If the league has a two-loss champion, does it get a playoff bid?
Sunday, November 2, 2014
Week 9 College Tiers - the Top Third (Tiers A through G)...
Thanks to the classic 35-31 SEC matchup in Oxford, there was one change in the Top Six, with a straight swap that moved Auburn into Tier A and Ole Miss down to Tier B with their second loss (they're still the highest of the two-loss teams, but consider their two losses!).
Look also for movement upwards from K-State, Arizona St, Missouri, Wisconsin, Iowa, and UCLA; falls from Georgia (where's the rushing D?), Kentucky, and East Carolina in particular...
Tier A: 8-0 Florida St and Mississippi St, along with 7-1 Alabama, Auburn, Notre Dame (barely), and TCU (even more barely!).
Tier B: Besides 7-2 Ole Miss, five one-loss teams with "acceptable" losses and impressive wins fill out the knights-in-waiting: Baylor, Kansas St, Michigan St, Ohio St, Oregon.
Tier C: These are the "if bedlam strikes above us - and it's been known to happen" teams in terms of the CFP committee's four precious roses: Four Pac-12 teams (Arizona at 6-2, Arizona St at 7-1, USC at 6-3, and Utah at 6-2) sit alongside LSU (7-2) and Nebraska (8-1). Truth be told, this tier doesn't need all four Pac-12 teams, but none of the teams below them deserve to knock them out. Probably Arizona St is the only truly likely possibility to challenge, along with the Tigers and Huskers.
Tier D: Under the heading, "if hell freezes over", we look at these clubs in slots 19-24: 6-1 Duke, Georgia and Missouri from the SEC East (two losses each), 5-2 Oklahoma, 7-2 UCLA, and 6-2 Wisconsin, so much more impressive in recent weeks.
Tier E: A wild mixture sits just outside the top 24, ranging from 5-4 Kentucky to 8-0 Marshall (needless to say, the competition differs from C-USA to the SEC!). Also present are Clemson (6-2), the Mountain West's best, Colorado St (8-1), 7-2 Georgia Tech (who impressed yesterday against Virginia), and hard-luck West Virginia, whose three losses are to Alabama, Oklahoma, and TCU.
Tier F: Six six-win teams populate tier F - East Carolina, Iowa, Louisville, Maryland, Miami-FL, and Minnesota.
Tier G: Rounding off the upper 42 are 6-2 Boise St, 5-4 California-Berkeley, 5-4 Oklahoma St, and three more SEC teams with erratic records: Florida, South Carolina, and Texas A&M.
Look also for movement upwards from K-State, Arizona St, Missouri, Wisconsin, Iowa, and UCLA; falls from Georgia (where's the rushing D?), Kentucky, and East Carolina in particular...
Tier A: 8-0 Florida St and Mississippi St, along with 7-1 Alabama, Auburn, Notre Dame (barely), and TCU (even more barely!).
Tier B: Besides 7-2 Ole Miss, five one-loss teams with "acceptable" losses and impressive wins fill out the knights-in-waiting: Baylor, Kansas St, Michigan St, Ohio St, Oregon.
Tier C: These are the "if bedlam strikes above us - and it's been known to happen" teams in terms of the CFP committee's four precious roses: Four Pac-12 teams (Arizona at 6-2, Arizona St at 7-1, USC at 6-3, and Utah at 6-2) sit alongside LSU (7-2) and Nebraska (8-1). Truth be told, this tier doesn't need all four Pac-12 teams, but none of the teams below them deserve to knock them out. Probably Arizona St is the only truly likely possibility to challenge, along with the Tigers and Huskers.
Tier D: Under the heading, "if hell freezes over", we look at these clubs in slots 19-24: 6-1 Duke, Georgia and Missouri from the SEC East (two losses each), 5-2 Oklahoma, 7-2 UCLA, and 6-2 Wisconsin, so much more impressive in recent weeks.
Tier E: A wild mixture sits just outside the top 24, ranging from 5-4 Kentucky to 8-0 Marshall (needless to say, the competition differs from C-USA to the SEC!). Also present are Clemson (6-2), the Mountain West's best, Colorado St (8-1), 7-2 Georgia Tech (who impressed yesterday against Virginia), and hard-luck West Virginia, whose three losses are to Alabama, Oklahoma, and TCU.
Tier F: Six six-win teams populate tier F - East Carolina, Iowa, Louisville, Maryland, Miami-FL, and Minnesota.
Tier G: Rounding off the upper 42 are 6-2 Boise St, 5-4 California-Berkeley, 5-4 Oklahoma St, and three more SEC teams with erratic records: Florida, South Carolina, and Texas A&M.
Wednesday, October 29, 2014
About those NCAA committee rankings...
First of all, here's the big reveal of the NCAA Football Committee's first efforts, released Tuesday evening. No big surprises: Mississippi St, Florida St, Auburn, and Ole Miss are the first four teams in the present rankings.
The top two were a given, and it's hard to argue that either Auburn or Ole Miss is unworthy of the next two spots, although there are a half-dozen teams about whom we could say the same thing: we have TCU, Notre Dame, and Alabama as our next three alongside Ole Miss, but as we've said, any of the one-loss teams in Tiers A or B would be acceptable to us.
A couple of thoughts come to mind for us, though:
Given that the three SEC West teams still play each other, there's going to be a great deal of change in that order. (Auburn plays at Ole Miss this Saturday, so one of them walks away from that with two losses.)
Secondly, the committee has a sense of humor. Look at the way the games would have laid out in their projections (which they KNOW won't be the final order) -
Mississippi St vs Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl
Florida St vs Auburn in the Rose Bowl
As Heather Dinich or whomever points out, that would have been a repeat of last year's BCS championship, in the same stadium in Pasadena, AND a repeat of the season ending Egg Bowl game, in the stadium as close to Mississippi as possible.
Wouldn't THOSE be two sweet matchups?
Finally, for those crying "SEC West FAVORITISM", look at the records, and look at the games. And if that's still not enough, relax by looking at the upcoming schedules: They're going to kill each other off. By definition, no more than two teams in the SEC West can finish the regular season with fewer than two losses now. There will NOT be a trifecta in the championship tournament. (Now, if you add Georgia into the mix...)
Sunday, October 26, 2014
We've reached the Week 8 CFB tiers Penthouse!
That's right, the thirty best teams as decided on the field so far this year, divided into the top five tiers (and no closer, as berated before!), for your amusement!
Tier E:
This is the tier with all different conferences represented...in case anyone cares. Present in Tier E are the Mountain West's highest ranked school, Colorado St (7-1, 3-1), Georgia Tech (6-2, 3-2) from the ACC, the Mid-American's hope for a major bowl bid in Marshall (still unbeaten at 8-0, 4-0), the SEC rep Missouri (6-2, 3-1), UCLA (6-2, 3-2) from the Pac-12, and Wisconsin (5-2, 2-1), representing the Big Ten. [Do you think that's about right for Marshall? Are those five teams ones you can see giving the Thundering Herd an even game on a neutral field? That's our criteria for tiers. Comments, please!]
Tier D:
Arizona St (6-1, 4-1) and USC (5-3, 4-2) had a great game a couple of weeks back, and land together here as reps for the Pac-12. Duke (6-1, 2-1 ACC) is here, as well as Kentucky (5-3, 2-3 SEC) - two incredibly high positions for "basketball schools"! Finally, we find Oklahoma (5-2, 2-2 Big 12) and the highest AAC member, the surprising East Carolina Pirates at 6-1, 3-0 in conference!
Tier C:
From here up, we're looking at schools that could legitimately keep dreaming about making the first four-team playoff! The favorites are yet to come, of course, but these teams still have a chance: Arizona (6-1, 3-1 Pac 12), Kansas St (6-1, 4-0 Big 12), LSU (7-2, 3-2 SEC), Nebraska (7-1, 3-1 Big 10), Utah (6-1, 3-1 Pac 12), and West Virginia (6-2, 4-1 Big 12).
Tier B:
Like last week, every team here can rightfully say they could beat any team, any day, as even their one defeat came in a strongly competitive situation against a top-notch team: Auburn (6-1, 3-1 SEC), Baylor (6-1, 3-1 Big 12), Georgia (6-1, 4-1 SEC), Michigan St (7-1, 4-0 Big 10), Ohio St (6-1, 3-0 Big 10), and Oregon (7-1, 4-1 Pac 12).
As the NCAA committee announces their first rankings Tuesday, expect to see four of these six teams in the four playoff positions...any of whom could be dislodged on a single Saturday!
Tier A:
Alabama (7-1, 4-1 SEC), whose one loss was at a Tier A school by one score; Florida St (7-0, 4-0 ACC), who's still undefeated thanks to the lack of prosecution against Jameis Winston; Mississippi St (7-0, 4-0 SEC), the rightful #1 team in the nation; Notre Dame (6-1 as an independent), whose only loss was a one score game at a Tier A school; TCU(6-1, 3-1 Big 12), whose only loss came to a then Tier A school (still a tier B) in a criminal clock-keeping game that allowed field goals against them at the end of each half on the opponent's field; and yes, we're keeping Ole Miss (7-1, 4-1 SEC) here, having lost a one-score game to a top-notch team in LSU (albeit Tier C) on their field. Comparing losses with the Tier B schools, we'll keep the Rebels over any of them at the moment. Still more to play, though!
[And if we had to pick four teams right now? Um... Mississippi St...Florida St...Alabama...and TCU would be our fourth right now. Notre Dame has a history of poor performances in championship situations, and I like TCU's "good wins versus what kind of loss it had" ratio over Ole Miss.]
Tier E:
This is the tier with all different conferences represented...in case anyone cares. Present in Tier E are the Mountain West's highest ranked school, Colorado St (7-1, 3-1), Georgia Tech (6-2, 3-2) from the ACC, the Mid-American's hope for a major bowl bid in Marshall (still unbeaten at 8-0, 4-0), the SEC rep Missouri (6-2, 3-1), UCLA (6-2, 3-2) from the Pac-12, and Wisconsin (5-2, 2-1), representing the Big Ten. [Do you think that's about right for Marshall? Are those five teams ones you can see giving the Thundering Herd an even game on a neutral field? That's our criteria for tiers. Comments, please!]
Tier D:
Arizona St (6-1, 4-1) and USC (5-3, 4-2) had a great game a couple of weeks back, and land together here as reps for the Pac-12. Duke (6-1, 2-1 ACC) is here, as well as Kentucky (5-3, 2-3 SEC) - two incredibly high positions for "basketball schools"! Finally, we find Oklahoma (5-2, 2-2 Big 12) and the highest AAC member, the surprising East Carolina Pirates at 6-1, 3-0 in conference!
Tier C:
From here up, we're looking at schools that could legitimately keep dreaming about making the first four-team playoff! The favorites are yet to come, of course, but these teams still have a chance: Arizona (6-1, 3-1 Pac 12), Kansas St (6-1, 4-0 Big 12), LSU (7-2, 3-2 SEC), Nebraska (7-1, 3-1 Big 10), Utah (6-1, 3-1 Pac 12), and West Virginia (6-2, 4-1 Big 12).
Tier B:
Like last week, every team here can rightfully say they could beat any team, any day, as even their one defeat came in a strongly competitive situation against a top-notch team: Auburn (6-1, 3-1 SEC), Baylor (6-1, 3-1 Big 12), Georgia (6-1, 4-1 SEC), Michigan St (7-1, 4-0 Big 10), Ohio St (6-1, 3-0 Big 10), and Oregon (7-1, 4-1 Pac 12).
As the NCAA committee announces their first rankings Tuesday, expect to see four of these six teams in the four playoff positions...any of whom could be dislodged on a single Saturday!
Tier A:
Alabama (7-1, 4-1 SEC), whose one loss was at a Tier A school by one score; Florida St (7-0, 4-0 ACC), who's still undefeated thanks to the lack of prosecution against Jameis Winston; Mississippi St (7-0, 4-0 SEC), the rightful #1 team in the nation; Notre Dame (6-1 as an independent), whose only loss was a one score game at a Tier A school; TCU(6-1, 3-1 Big 12), whose only loss came to a then Tier A school (still a tier B) in a criminal clock-keeping game that allowed field goals against them at the end of each half on the opponent's field; and yes, we're keeping Ole Miss (7-1, 4-1 SEC) here, having lost a one-score game to a top-notch team in LSU (albeit Tier C) on their field. Comparing losses with the Tier B schools, we'll keep the Rebels over any of them at the moment. Still more to play, though!
[And if we had to pick four teams right now? Um... Mississippi St...Florida St...Alabama...and TCU would be our fourth right now. Notre Dame has a history of poor performances in championship situations, and I like TCU's "good wins versus what kind of loss it had" ratio over Ole Miss.]
Sunday, October 12, 2014
Without further ado...the Week 6 Tiers!
Tier 1
Alabama (5-1, thanks to a blocked XP), Baylor (6-0, thanks to local timekeepers), Florida St (6-0, thanks to the Tallahassee PD), Mississippi St (6-0, legitimately), Notre Dame (6-0, no thanks to the stud QBing for North Carolina) , Ole Miss (also legit 6-0), Oregon (5-1), and TCU (4-1 and deserving of Tier 1 by proving against OU and Baylor that they deserve to be up here!).
Tier 2
Auburn (5-1 and probably just on vacation from the top tier), Arizona (5-1, and a failed two-pt conversion from undefeated), Georgia (5-1, after proving they are not just Todd Gurley), LSU (5-2), Michigan St (5-1, but they'd prefer three-quarter games), Oklahoma (5-1; see Auburn), Oklahoma St (5-1), and UCLA (4-2, all due to Brett Hundley).
Tier 3
Clemson (4-2), Duke (5-1), Georgia Tech (5-1), Kansas St (4-1), Nebraska (5-1, higher if we could forget McNeese St), Ohio St (4-1), Texas A&M (5-2, and our pastor will never set foot in the state of Mississippi again!), and USC (4-2).
Tier 4
Arizona St (4-1), Kentucky (5-1, and a 3OT loss from perfection), Louisville (5-2), Marshall (6-0, and a decent schedule away from perfection), Missouri (4-2, embarrassed by Georgia yesterday), Stanford (4-2), West Virginia (4-2), and Utah (4-1, and getting the hang of this Pac-12 thing).
Tier 5
Maryland (4-2), Minnesota (5-1, thanks to a great runback for the winning TD), Oregon St (4-1), Penn St (4-2 and fading), Rutgers (5-1), Virginia (4-2), Virginia Tech (4-2), and Washington (kur man Chris Petersen is starting to get the 5-1 Huskies moving smoothly!).
Tier 6
Arkansas (4-2, the lowest ranked SEC West team is still on the board!), Boston College (4-2), BYU (4-2 and falling faster than PSU), Colorado St (5-1 and on the rise), Florida (3-2, and the biggest mystery in the nation), Iowa (5-1), Miami-FL (4-3), and Utah St (4-2 and more and more looking like the cream of the MWC).
Tier 7
Air Force (4-2, and brought back to earth by USU), Boise St (4-2), Bowling Green (5-2), California (5-2, waxed by Washington), Northwestern (3-3), South Carolina (3-3), Tennessee (3-3), and Wisconsin (4-2).
On the outside, looking in...
Central Michigan, Cincinnati, Houston, Indiana, Memphis, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Northern Illinois, Pitt, Temple, Texas, Texas Tech...
Alabama (5-1, thanks to a blocked XP), Baylor (6-0, thanks to local timekeepers), Florida St (6-0, thanks to the Tallahassee PD), Mississippi St (6-0, legitimately), Notre Dame (6-0, no thanks to the stud QBing for North Carolina) , Ole Miss (also legit 6-0), Oregon (5-1), and TCU (4-1 and deserving of Tier 1 by proving against OU and Baylor that they deserve to be up here!).
Tier 2
Auburn (5-1 and probably just on vacation from the top tier), Arizona (5-1, and a failed two-pt conversion from undefeated), Georgia (5-1, after proving they are not just Todd Gurley), LSU (5-2), Michigan St (5-1, but they'd prefer three-quarter games), Oklahoma (5-1; see Auburn), Oklahoma St (5-1), and UCLA (4-2, all due to Brett Hundley).
Tier 3
Clemson (4-2), Duke (5-1), Georgia Tech (5-1), Kansas St (4-1), Nebraska (5-1, higher if we could forget McNeese St), Ohio St (4-1), Texas A&M (5-2, and our pastor will never set foot in the state of Mississippi again!), and USC (4-2).
Tier 4
Arizona St (4-1), Kentucky (5-1, and a 3OT loss from perfection), Louisville (5-2), Marshall (6-0, and a decent schedule away from perfection), Missouri (4-2, embarrassed by Georgia yesterday), Stanford (4-2), West Virginia (4-2), and Utah (4-1, and getting the hang of this Pac-12 thing).
Tier 5
Maryland (4-2), Minnesota (5-1, thanks to a great runback for the winning TD), Oregon St (4-1), Penn St (4-2 and fading), Rutgers (5-1), Virginia (4-2), Virginia Tech (4-2), and Washington (kur man Chris Petersen is starting to get the 5-1 Huskies moving smoothly!).
Tier 6
Arkansas (4-2, the lowest ranked SEC West team is still on the board!), Boston College (4-2), BYU (4-2 and falling faster than PSU), Colorado St (5-1 and on the rise), Florida (3-2, and the biggest mystery in the nation), Iowa (5-1), Miami-FL (4-3), and Utah St (4-2 and more and more looking like the cream of the MWC).
Tier 7
Air Force (4-2, and brought back to earth by USU), Boise St (4-2), Bowling Green (5-2), California (5-2, waxed by Washington), Northwestern (3-3), South Carolina (3-3), Tennessee (3-3), and Wisconsin (4-2).
On the outside, looking in...
Central Michigan, Cincinnati, Houston, Indiana, Memphis, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Northern Illinois, Pitt, Temple, Texas, Texas Tech...
Saturday, October 11, 2014
Daytime games - NCAA Week 6
* We HAVE to start with the outrageous game in Waco, where Baylor (and the home town refs and timekeepers) came from three TDs down in the 4th Q to outscore TCU 61-58.
In football, that is. Not basketball.
TCU's defense had gotten so exhausted by the time they had the ball at 58-all in the last two minutes that coach Patterson felt the need to go for it on 4th and 3 at midfield. A neglected PI call gave the Bears the ball, and they got down close enough on the non-neglected call for their frosh kicker to win the game. Amazing offensive display, an all-time record for points in a top ten game. TCU's 78 offensive plays would be impressive were it not for Baylor's 113 plays run! No wonder the Frog D was tired!
* Michigan St again wins its B1G game, but again allows their adversary a multi-TD comeback that threatens their win, in this case over Purdue 45-31. Fool me once, shame on you, but fool me twice...
* Somehow Oklahoma managed to go up 17-3 on Texas while getting only one first down over the first quarter. The Longhorns trailed at halftime while outgaining the Sooners by over 200 yards. Return touchdowns will do that for a team... By game's end, Texas had out possessed OU by sixteen minutes, outgained them by 250 yards, out first downed them 24-11, and lost 31-26.
* It seems Kent St is really bad. UMass, losers of twelve straight, came to the Flash's home field and won 40-17. Can't explain how. Our Bottom Eight tomorrow will be MAC heavy, with Miami of Ohio joining both teams in there somewhere.
* The Sun Belt will be well represented as well, led by Appalachian St, who invited former FCS rival Liberty to town and lost in OT, 55-48. As many as five Sun Belt schools may darken the basement doors of our Bottom Eight tomorrow, as New Mexico St made their bid by losing to previously winless Troy handily, 41-24.
* When your first two plays from scrimmage are turnovers resulting in immediate TDs for your opponent, it's hard to win on the road - and sure 'nuff, Auburn fell at Mississippi St 38-23, in a battle of Tier 1 teams in the rain today. Dak Prescott's this year's Cam Newton or Tim Tebow, as CBS kept reminding us, but it's a fair comparison. Here's hoping for a pro career closer to Cam's...
*Minnesota won 24-17 on a 100-yd kickoff return after Northwestern tied the game. Great work being done at the U of M, as it is at Kentucky (cupcake winners against ULM today, but given their history, hard to argue) and at Duke, where they stomped all over 5-0 Georgia Tech after a long storm delay.
In football, that is. Not basketball.
TCU's defense had gotten so exhausted by the time they had the ball at 58-all in the last two minutes that coach Patterson felt the need to go for it on 4th and 3 at midfield. A neglected PI call gave the Bears the ball, and they got down close enough on the non-neglected call for their frosh kicker to win the game. Amazing offensive display, an all-time record for points in a top ten game. TCU's 78 offensive plays would be impressive were it not for Baylor's 113 plays run! No wonder the Frog D was tired!
* Michigan St again wins its B1G game, but again allows their adversary a multi-TD comeback that threatens their win, in this case over Purdue 45-31. Fool me once, shame on you, but fool me twice...
* Somehow Oklahoma managed to go up 17-3 on Texas while getting only one first down over the first quarter. The Longhorns trailed at halftime while outgaining the Sooners by over 200 yards. Return touchdowns will do that for a team... By game's end, Texas had out possessed OU by sixteen minutes, outgained them by 250 yards, out first downed them 24-11, and lost 31-26.
* It seems Kent St is really bad. UMass, losers of twelve straight, came to the Flash's home field and won 40-17. Can't explain how. Our Bottom Eight tomorrow will be MAC heavy, with Miami of Ohio joining both teams in there somewhere.
* The Sun Belt will be well represented as well, led by Appalachian St, who invited former FCS rival Liberty to town and lost in OT, 55-48. As many as five Sun Belt schools may darken the basement doors of our Bottom Eight tomorrow, as New Mexico St made their bid by losing to previously winless Troy handily, 41-24.
* When your first two plays from scrimmage are turnovers resulting in immediate TDs for your opponent, it's hard to win on the road - and sure 'nuff, Auburn fell at Mississippi St 38-23, in a battle of Tier 1 teams in the rain today. Dak Prescott's this year's Cam Newton or Tim Tebow, as CBS kept reminding us, but it's a fair comparison. Here's hoping for a pro career closer to Cam's...
*Minnesota won 24-17 on a 100-yd kickoff return after Northwestern tied the game. Great work being done at the U of M, as it is at Kentucky (cupcake winners against ULM today, but given their history, hard to argue) and at Duke, where they stomped all over 5-0 Georgia Tech after a long storm delay.
Tuesday, October 7, 2014
How did we do on last week's predictions? Let's find out...
Places We Looked Brilliant:
Arizona not only covered at Oregon... Louisville handled Syracuse with ease...Utah State not only covered, not only defeated BYU, but basically eliminated their chances of success this year by breaking Tayson Hill's leg...we looked prescient picking Air Force over Navy, and California winning a WILD game over Washington State, in which the Wazzu QB threw for a record 744 yards, and was undone by a missed 19-yard last second field goal!...We also projected FCS losses for UC Davis and (surprise, surprise!) Savannah State, and a tight game between Montana State and my alma mater Sacramento State, which turned into a really exciting, back-and-forth 59-56 Bobcat win.
Places We Looked Like Stevie Wonder Judging A Beauty Contest:
San Diego State failing to cover against Fresno State...neither did Texas A&M against Mississippi State, or LSU versus Auburn...Florida barely scraped by Tennessee after switching quarterbacks (probably for good), East Carolina couldn't annihilate SMU after all, who scored 24 points, tripling their season total!...TCU was much better against Oklahoma than expected, and so was Idaho (congrats, Vandals!).
And, Somewhere In The Grey Area Where We All Spend Most Of Life:
NCAA, Florida State 43, Wake Forest 3...Notre Dame/ Stanford had the same three point spread Vegas predicted, as did Oregon State/Colorado. After the Charlie Weis firing, Kansas did as expected and played inspired football...for a while, before West Virginia put them away 33-14. Michigan did indeed play Rutgers close before losing 26-24. Finally, the Boise State / Nevada game was back and forth, as expected, with the Broncos winning a wild game 52-47.
Arizona not only covered at Oregon... Louisville handled Syracuse with ease...Utah State not only covered, not only defeated BYU, but basically eliminated their chances of success this year by breaking Tayson Hill's leg...we looked prescient picking Air Force over Navy, and California winning a WILD game over Washington State, in which the Wazzu QB threw for a record 744 yards, and was undone by a missed 19-yard last second field goal!...We also projected FCS losses for UC Davis and (surprise, surprise!) Savannah State, and a tight game between Montana State and my alma mater Sacramento State, which turned into a really exciting, back-and-forth 59-56 Bobcat win.
Places We Looked Like Stevie Wonder Judging A Beauty Contest:
San Diego State failing to cover against Fresno State...neither did Texas A&M against Mississippi State, or LSU versus Auburn...Florida barely scraped by Tennessee after switching quarterbacks (probably for good), East Carolina couldn't annihilate SMU after all, who scored 24 points, tripling their season total!...TCU was much better against Oklahoma than expected, and so was Idaho (congrats, Vandals!).
And, Somewhere In The Grey Area Where We All Spend Most Of Life:
NCAA, Florida State 43, Wake Forest 3...Notre Dame/ Stanford had the same three point spread Vegas predicted, as did Oregon State/Colorado. After the Charlie Weis firing, Kansas did as expected and played inspired football...for a while, before West Virginia put them away 33-14. Michigan did indeed play Rutgers close before losing 26-24. Finally, the Boise State / Nevada game was back and forth, as expected, with the Broncos winning a wild game 52-47.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)