Having completed our examination of the ten conferences in division one-A (five Power Five conferences and five Group of Five conferences), we came up with some suprising predictions, mostly because of when and where certain pairs of rivals happen to play each other. All position ties are broken by head to head results whenever possible. (For example, LSU should defeat Auburn.) We'll follow up with the overall records a bit later, but these are the in-conference records we project for the upcoming season:
SEC West: 1. Alabama (7-1, 11-1), 2. LSU (6-2, 10-2), 3. Auburn (6-2, 10-2), 4. Ole Miss (5-3, 9-3), 5. Texas A&M (4-4, 8-4), 6. Arkansas (2-6, 6-6), 7. Mississippi St (2-6, 6-6).
SEC East: 1. Georgia (6-2, 10-2), 2. Tennessee (6-2, 10-2), 3. Missouri (4-4, 8-4), 4. South Carolina (3-5, 6-6), 5. Kentucky (2-6, 5-7), 6. Florida (1-7, 4-8), 7. Vanderbilt (0-8, 3-9).
(Alabama def. Georgia for championship; CFP bound.)
PAC-12 North: 1. Oregon (8-1, 10-2), 2. Stanford (7-2, even beating UO!, 9-3), 3. California (3-6, 5-7), 4. Washington (2-7, 4-8), 5. Washington St (2-7, 4-8), 6. Oregon St (1-8, 3-9).
PAC-12 South: 1. UCLA (8-1, 11-1), 2. USC (7-2, 10-2), 3. Arizona St (6-3, 8-4), 4. Arizona (5-4, 8-4), 5. Utah (4-5, 6-6), 6. Colorado (0-9, 2-10).
(Oregon defeats UCLA for championship; CFP bound.)
BIG 12: 1. TCU (9-0, 11-1), 2. Baylor (8-1, 11-1), 3. Oklahoma (7-2, 9-3), 4. Texas (6-3, 8-4), 5. Oklahoma St (4-5, 7-5), 6. West Virginia (4-5, 7-5), 7. Kansas St (3-6, 6-6), 8. Texas Tech (2-7, 4-8), 9. Iowa St (1-8, 2-10) 10. Kansas (1-8, 2-10).
(TCU goes to CFP.)
BIG 10 East: 1. Ohio St (8-0, 12-0), 2. Michigan St (7-1, 11-1), 3. Penn St (6-2, 10-2), 4. Michigan (5-3, 9-3), 5. Indiana (2-6, 5-7), 6. Maryland (1-7, 4-8), 7. Rutgers (1-7, 5-7).
BIG 10 West: 1. Wisconsin (7-1, 10-2), 2. Minnesota (6-2, 10-2), 3. Nebraska (5-3, 7-5), 4. Iowa (4-4, 8-4), 5. Northwestern (2-6, 4-8), 6. Illinois (1-7, 4-8), 7. Purdue (0-8, 1-11).
(Ohio St defeats Wisconsin - again; CFP bound.)
ACC Atlantic: 1. Clemson (7-1, 11-1), 2. Florida St (6-2, 10-2), 3. North Carolina St (6-2, 10-2), 4. Louisville (5-3, 8-4), 5. Boston College (2-6, 4-8), 6. Syracuse (1-7, 4-8), 7. Wake Forest (0-8, 2-10).
ACC Coastal: 1. Virginia Tech (7-1, 10-2), 2. Georgia Tech (6-2, 8-4), 3. Duke (5-3, 9-3), 4. Miami-FL (4-4, 7-5), 5. North Carolina (4-4, 8-4), 6. Pitt (2-6, 4-8), 7. Virginia (0-8, 1-11).
(Clemson defeats Virginia Tech, but will be the odd team out of the CFP.)
Independents: Notre Dame (10-2), BYU (7-5), Army-West Point (6-6).
American East: 1. Central Florida (7-1, 9-3), 2. East Carolina (6-2, 7-5), 3. Cincinnati (5-3, 8-4), 4. Temple (5-3, 7-5), 5. South Florida (2-6, 3-9), 6. U Conn (1-7, 2-10).
American West: 1. Houston (7-1, 10-2), 2. Memphis (6-2, 8-4), 3. Navy (5-3, 8-4), 4. SMU (2-6, 3-9), 5. Tulane (2-6, 4-8), 6. Tulsa (0-8, 2-10).
(Central Florida defeats Houston for championship.)
Mountain West MTN: 1. Boise St (8-0, 12-0), 2. Utah St (7-1, 8-4), 3. Colorado St (6-2, 9-3), 4. Air Force (5-3, 7-5), 5. Wyoming (2-6, 4-8), 6. New Mexico (1-7, 4-8).
Mountain West WST: 1. San Diego St (6-2, 7-5), 2. Nevada (5-3, 7-5). 3. San Jose St (3-5, 4-8), 4. Fresno St (3-5, 4-8), 5. UNLV 1-7, 2-10), 6. Hawai'i (1-7, 3-10).
(Boise St defeats San Diego St, qualifies for New Year's Six Bowls.)
Conf USA East: 1. Marshall (8-0, 12-0), 2. Western Kentucky (7-1, 9-3), 3. Middle Tennessee (5-3, 6-6), 4. Old Dominion (5-3, 8-4), 5. Florida International (3-5, 4-8), 6. Florida Atlantic (1-7, 2-10), 7. UNC-Charlotte (0-8, 1-11).
Conf USA West: 1. Louisiana Tech (7-1, 9-3), 2. Rice (6-2, 7-5), 3. UTEP (5-3, 6-6), 4. Southern Miss (3-5, 4-8), 5. North Texas (1-7, 2-10), 6. UTSA (1-7, 1-11).
(Marshall defeats LaTech, but strength of schedule keeps them from the New Year's Six.)
Mid-American West: 1. Toledo (7-1, 10-2), 2. Northern Illinois (7-1, 10-2), 3. Western Michigan (6-2, 7-5), 4. Ball St (6-2, 8-4), 5. Central Michigan (3-5, 4-8), 6. Eastern Michigan (0-8, 0-12).
Mid-American East: 1. Akron (7-1, 9-3), 2. Bowling Green (6-2, 8-4), 3. U Mass (4-4, 4-8), 4. Ohio (3-5, 5-7), 5. Kent St (3-5, 4-8), 6. Buffalo (1-7, 1-11), 7. Miami-OH (1-7, 1-11).
(Toledo defeats Akron for championship.)
Sun Belt: 1. Appalachian St (8-0, 10-2), 2t. Georgia Southern (7-1, 8-4), 2t. Arkansas St (7-1, 8-4), 4. UL-Lafayette (5-3, 6-6), 5. Texas St (5-3, 7-5), 6, South Alabama (4-4, 5-7), 7. New Mexico St (3-5, 4-8), 8. Troy (2-6, 3-9), 9. UL-Monroe (2-6, 3-9), 10. Idaho (1-7, 2-10), 11. Georgia St (0-8, 1-11).
(GASO and ArkSt do not play each other; the other ties do)
So, a few surprises even for us in our own predictions, once you really dig into the schedules and see who each team plays, and where, and when. I think the stand-out surprise to me was Army going 6-6 this year, but their schedule is paper-thin. Marshall going 12-0 startled me, until I realized their only difficult game will be Western KY, and they'll be SO pumped for revenge that we're betting they win that one, too. Toledo and Akron are NOT the two best teams in the MAC, but they're the two with the fewest losses looming on their schedules! (It all depends on your crossover opponents!). Minnesota going 10-2 may shock some, but their three hardest (non-OSU) games are at home. In defense of Oregon going over Clemson to the playoffs, even w/ two losses, it looks as though the four lions at the top of the Pac-12 (OU, Stanford, UCLA, USC) will loom as so dominant that it becomes inevitable that ONE of them (by definition, the champ) goes to the playoff, and after USC and UCLA decimate each other one Saturday, Oregon should pick off the survivor the next weekend. I honestly looked for scenarios where Alabama, Ohio St, and TCU didn't go to the playoffs, or where Boise didn't return to New Year's Day...but that's not likely.
Showing posts with label Army. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Army. Show all posts
Saturday, August 22, 2015
Saturday, December 13, 2014
Following today's Football...
As the final game of 774 regular season FBS contests gets underway, we'll follow today's Army/Navy game as well as the lower division playoff games...
Last night, New Hampshire managed to oust Chattanooga 35-30 despite being outgained by two hundred yards and outplayed for the first 2 1/2 quarters - but that's what a number one team does. Today, defenders North Dakota St overcame Coastal Carolina 39-32, in a surprisingly competitive game, and currently Sam Houston St and Villanova are waging a back and forth war - SHSU kicks a field goal, Villanova scores a TD, and now the Bearcats take the lead BACK with a TD drive of their own to lead, 34-31. UPDATE: The Wildcats were forced into trying and missing a tying 51 yard field goal; the Bearkats held on to win, 34-31.
Meanwhile, Army leads Navy 7-0, after a jailbreak blocked punt converted for a touchdown, with the Black Knights controlling the line of scrimmage on both offense and defense...until a fourth down conversion of theirs is negated by a LATE time out from the sideline, followed by a Navy stop and turnover, closely followed by a TD pass to tie the game at seven. Controversial time out changes the whole game!
UPDATE: As expected, the two Division III powerhouses are cruising to what we believe is their NINTH consecutive championship meeting! Mount Union routed previously 12-0 Wellesley 70-0 after three quarters, before the fourth string allowed three garbage time TDs. Currently, Wisconsin-Whitewater leads 14-0 early in the second quarter against 11-1 west coast power Linfield.
UPDATE: Linfield has come back to tie UW Whitewater at 14 going into the fourth quarter, and after the Naval Academy pushed out to a dominating 17-7 lead, Army's Daniel Grochkowski skimmed through a field goal from 52 to close within a TD with 1:51 to go!
UPDATE: Illinois St leads Eastern Washington 31-20, and in twelve possessions the two teams have scored on NINE of them, with EWU's initial punt, their subsequent fumble, and ISU's kneel to end the first half being the only non-scoring drives of the game so far as of the mid third quarter.
Meanwhile, Navy beat Army 17-10 for their 13th consecutive win. CBS's Allie LaForge interviewed Navy coach Ken Niumatololo after the game, and asked the coach about the key time out he called in the second quarter. Coach said, "If you asked me who told me to call that time out, you wouldn't believe me." She asked anyway, and his answer was, "The Man Upstairs." GOOD for YOU, Coach!
UPDATE: Illinois St can't be stopped! In their ten possessions AT Eastern Washington, on the freaky red field, they've gone as follows so far: FG, TD, TD, TD, TD, end of half, TD, TD,TD, TD... (To be continued.) They lead 52-27 early in the fourth. ...and at game's end, they won by the score of 59-46. In all, there were 24 possessions: 17 ended in scores (14 TDs and 3FGs), 3 EWU turnovers (fumble & 2 interceptions), two end of half kneel downs by ISU, a failed 4th down late by the winners they didn't need, and one lonely punt, just two minutes into the game. Division III update: UW-Whitewater went on to win, 20-14, over Linfield, so we get rematch number nine or so for the D3 title next weekend in Salem, VA: Mount Union v. UW-Whitewater. In D2, Minnesota St is waiting for the winner of tonight's Colorado St-Pueblo/West Georgia game to set up next Saturday's Division II title tilt.
(SO, as far as our prognostication battle goes with the professionals, Illinois St kept us from winning all four games up to this point: in fact, we hit Sam Houston by 3 and North Dakota St by 7 on the nose, and Arizona by 6 was extremely close to perfect. And...well, we really had irrational faith in the Big Sky, I guess. Three turnovers to none will do it, though. Anyway, it's 3-1 Following Football, with three NFL games left to decide the weekly winner...and we just need to be right once to win the weekend!)
Last night, New Hampshire managed to oust Chattanooga 35-30 despite being outgained by two hundred yards and outplayed for the first 2 1/2 quarters - but that's what a number one team does. Today, defenders North Dakota St overcame Coastal Carolina 39-32, in a surprisingly competitive game, and currently Sam Houston St and Villanova are waging a back and forth war - SHSU kicks a field goal, Villanova scores a TD, and now the Bearcats take the lead BACK with a TD drive of their own to lead, 34-31. UPDATE: The Wildcats were forced into trying and missing a tying 51 yard field goal; the Bearkats held on to win, 34-31.
Meanwhile, Army leads Navy 7-0, after a jailbreak blocked punt converted for a touchdown, with the Black Knights controlling the line of scrimmage on both offense and defense...until a fourth down conversion of theirs is negated by a LATE time out from the sideline, followed by a Navy stop and turnover, closely followed by a TD pass to tie the game at seven. Controversial time out changes the whole game!
UPDATE: As expected, the two Division III powerhouses are cruising to what we believe is their NINTH consecutive championship meeting! Mount Union routed previously 12-0 Wellesley 70-0 after three quarters, before the fourth string allowed three garbage time TDs. Currently, Wisconsin-Whitewater leads 14-0 early in the second quarter against 11-1 west coast power Linfield.
UPDATE: Linfield has come back to tie UW Whitewater at 14 going into the fourth quarter, and after the Naval Academy pushed out to a dominating 17-7 lead, Army's Daniel Grochkowski skimmed through a field goal from 52 to close within a TD with 1:51 to go!
UPDATE: Illinois St leads Eastern Washington 31-20, and in twelve possessions the two teams have scored on NINE of them, with EWU's initial punt, their subsequent fumble, and ISU's kneel to end the first half being the only non-scoring drives of the game so far as of the mid third quarter.
Meanwhile, Navy beat Army 17-10 for their 13th consecutive win. CBS's Allie LaForge interviewed Navy coach Ken Niumatololo after the game, and asked the coach about the key time out he called in the second quarter. Coach said, "If you asked me who told me to call that time out, you wouldn't believe me." She asked anyway, and his answer was, "The Man Upstairs." GOOD for YOU, Coach!
UPDATE: Illinois St can't be stopped! In their ten possessions AT Eastern Washington, on the freaky red field, they've gone as follows so far: FG, TD, TD, TD, TD, end of half, TD, TD,TD, TD... (To be continued.) They lead 52-27 early in the fourth. ...and at game's end, they won by the score of 59-46. In all, there were 24 possessions: 17 ended in scores (14 TDs and 3FGs), 3 EWU turnovers (fumble & 2 interceptions), two end of half kneel downs by ISU, a failed 4th down late by the winners they didn't need, and one lonely punt, just two minutes into the game. Division III update: UW-Whitewater went on to win, 20-14, over Linfield, so we get rematch number nine or so for the D3 title next weekend in Salem, VA: Mount Union v. UW-Whitewater. In D2, Minnesota St is waiting for the winner of tonight's Colorado St-Pueblo/West Georgia game to set up next Saturday's Division II title tilt.
(SO, as far as our prognostication battle goes with the professionals, Illinois St kept us from winning all four games up to this point: in fact, we hit Sam Houston by 3 and North Dakota St by 7 on the nose, and Arizona by 6 was extremely close to perfect. And...well, we really had irrational faith in the Big Sky, I guess. Three turnovers to none will do it, though. Anyway, it's 3-1 Following Football, with three NFL games left to decide the weekly winner...and we just need to be right once to win the weekend!)
Friday, November 28, 2014
There was NO government interference...was there?
Navy leads South Alabama, 42-40, after a twelve play drive ending with a ten yard TD pass to draw them within two with less than a minute to go...
The two point conversion is good! Oh, wait... A holding call? Ok, take two.
The two point conversion is good! Oh, wait... Illegal receiver downfield? Really? All right, take three.
The two point conversion is... NO GOOD! Intercepted! So, of course, THIS one stays. Game, Navy, 42-40.
So, the US Naval Academy is now bowl-eligible (and remember, they don't play Army until AFTER the bowl invites go out next weekend)...how convenient! (Hmmm...)
The two point conversion is good! Oh, wait... A holding call? Ok, take two.
The two point conversion is good! Oh, wait... Illegal receiver downfield? Really? All right, take three.
The two point conversion is... NO GOOD! Intercepted! So, of course, THIS one stays. Game, Navy, 42-40.
So, the US Naval Academy is now bowl-eligible (and remember, they don't play Army until AFTER the bowl invites go out next weekend)...how convenient! (Hmmm...)
Sunday, November 23, 2014
What games are on tap for Week 12?
Of the sixty FBS games this week, the Las Vegas/Reno casino bookies, the folks who make their living by predicting the (perceived!) outcome of the games agreed with the predictions we made based on the tiered rankings we posted on Sunday.
For the record, we predict the outcome of games as follows: Count the number of tiers that the two teams differ by. So, for example, if one team is Tier B and the other is Tier G, there is a five tier difference (C, D, E, F, G) between them. Then, multiply that by 1 1/2 points for the neutral field advantage the higher team would have. Finally, give the home team an extra three points (if they're favored already, add three to the spread; if they're the underdog, subtract three). There's your prediction. (We've been known to adjust for unusual circumstances: when BYU lost their all-star QB, for example, the tiers had not adjusted for that at the time. Similarly, there might be motivating factors - rivalries, etc. - that urge us to change the spread - but we rarely do! More often than not, what you see is what you get...WYSIWYG!
Here are the games that have a significant difference between our forecasts and theirs:
UMass @ Akron Tuesday ... we say Akron by 3, they say by 7 1/2. They win. Akron 30, UMass 6.
Kansas St @ West Virginia Thursday...we say K-St by 1, they say WV by 2 1/2! Our point! K-St 26, WVU 20.
UTEP @ Rice Friday...we say Rice wins by 2, they say Rice by 9. They lead 2-1. Rice wins big, 31-13.
Fordham @ Army Saturday...no forecast from Vegas because Fordham's an FCS school, but we believe they should be favored over Army by a point! Army 42-31.
Eastern Michigan @ Ball St... there are a bunch of routs forecasted where the point difference between a 25 and a 35 point blowout is pointless to quibble over, but in this case, we're going to point out that we see a six-point win for Ball St, and Vegas sees seventeen! They were closer - it was 15. So they lead us 4-1 now...
Maryland @ Michigan... We have the Terps by five, Vegas has Michigan by 4.5! We cheered Maryland's late TD for the win, 23-16!
Florida International @ North Texas...we think it'll be FIU by two; they see UNT by 2! They were on again! UNT 17, FIU 14!
"The Big Game"! Stanford @ California...the home of the greatest, most controversial play in college football history in 1982. We have Cal by 3 1/2, they have Stanford by 6. We were doubly afraid of this one, with all our Berkeley relations...but it was Leland Sanford Junior University with the 38-17 win. Vegas up 6-2 now.
Florida Atlantic @ Middle Tennessee...We see it as even; they have MTSU by 6 1/2! We're counting this one on our side - one is closer to "even" than it is to six! 35-34, Blue Raiders.
Oklahoma St @ Baylor...Another potential blowout, but our spreads differ significantly - we see Baylor by 11; they think the Bears will win by 27! They'd have been spot on if Baylor wanted to run it up...49-28 in bad weather. 7-2, casinos.
Missouri @ Tennessee is the last game we'll compare - we have Mizzou by 1; they think the Volunteers win at home by 3 1/2. Missouri wins, 29-21, so we go into Sunday down four with four to go. Dormie at 7-3 down...
On the pro side, there are only four games to compare:
Cleveland @ Atlanta... We think Cleveland by 1; they see Atlanta by 3 1/2. And thanks to some terrible clock management, we were vindicated by the Browns' last-second field goal.
Cincinnati @ Houston...We think the Bengals win by 1; Vegas says Houston by 1 1/2. And the Bengals won comfortably. Two for two today - we still have a chance!
Arizona @ Seattle...We differ on the effect of the home field: Arizona by 2 on our board, Seattle by six on theirs!
Baltimore @ New Orleans on Monday night...We call it even; they see the Saints with a 3 1/2 point advantage at home. Looks like it may wait until Monday night to determine whether we win or lose!
For the record, we predict the outcome of games as follows: Count the number of tiers that the two teams differ by. So, for example, if one team is Tier B and the other is Tier G, there is a five tier difference (C, D, E, F, G) between them. Then, multiply that by 1 1/2 points for the neutral field advantage the higher team would have. Finally, give the home team an extra three points (if they're favored already, add three to the spread; if they're the underdog, subtract three). There's your prediction. (We've been known to adjust for unusual circumstances: when BYU lost their all-star QB, for example, the tiers had not adjusted for that at the time. Similarly, there might be motivating factors - rivalries, etc. - that urge us to change the spread - but we rarely do! More often than not, what you see is what you get...WYSIWYG!
Here are the games that have a significant difference between our forecasts and theirs:
UMass @ Akron Tuesday ... we say Akron by 3, they say by 7 1/2. They win. Akron 30, UMass 6.
Kansas St @ West Virginia Thursday...we say K-St by 1, they say WV by 2 1/2! Our point! K-St 26, WVU 20.
UTEP @ Rice Friday...we say Rice wins by 2, they say Rice by 9. They lead 2-1. Rice wins big, 31-13.
Fordham @ Army Saturday...no forecast from Vegas because Fordham's an FCS school, but we believe they should be favored over Army by a point! Army 42-31.
Eastern Michigan @ Ball St... there are a bunch of routs forecasted where the point difference between a 25 and a 35 point blowout is pointless to quibble over, but in this case, we're going to point out that we see a six-point win for Ball St, and Vegas sees seventeen! They were closer - it was 15. So they lead us 4-1 now...
Maryland @ Michigan... We have the Terps by five, Vegas has Michigan by 4.5! We cheered Maryland's late TD for the win, 23-16!
Florida International @ North Texas...we think it'll be FIU by two; they see UNT by 2! They were on again! UNT 17, FIU 14!
"The Big Game"! Stanford @ California...the home of the greatest, most controversial play in college football history in 1982. We have Cal by 3 1/2, they have Stanford by 6. We were doubly afraid of this one, with all our Berkeley relations...but it was Leland Sanford Junior University with the 38-17 win. Vegas up 6-2 now.
Florida Atlantic @ Middle Tennessee...We see it as even; they have MTSU by 6 1/2! We're counting this one on our side - one is closer to "even" than it is to six! 35-34, Blue Raiders.
Oklahoma St @ Baylor...Another potential blowout, but our spreads differ significantly - we see Baylor by 11; they think the Bears will win by 27! They'd have been spot on if Baylor wanted to run it up...49-28 in bad weather. 7-2, casinos.
Missouri @ Tennessee is the last game we'll compare - we have Mizzou by 1; they think the Volunteers win at home by 3 1/2. Missouri wins, 29-21, so we go into Sunday down four with four to go. Dormie at 7-3 down...
On the pro side, there are only four games to compare:
Cleveland @ Atlanta... We think Cleveland by 1; they see Atlanta by 3 1/2. And thanks to some terrible clock management, we were vindicated by the Browns' last-second field goal.
Cincinnati @ Houston...We think the Bengals win by 1; Vegas says Houston by 1 1/2. And the Bengals won comfortably. Two for two today - we still have a chance!
Arizona @ Seattle...We differ on the effect of the home field: Arizona by 2 on our board, Seattle by six on theirs!
Baltimore @ New Orleans on Monday night...We call it even; they see the Saints with a 3 1/2 point advantage at home. Looks like it may wait until Monday night to determine whether we win or lose!
Sunday, November 9, 2014
Reviewing our Week 10 predictions!
Well, if you've been with us this week, you know we've been firing on all cylinders in Week 10! Here's our results...
Successes: Bowling Green over Akron...NIU over Ball St...Temple closer than a TD to Memphis...Baylor destroying Oklahoma...Duke big over Syracuse...Army over UConn...TCU over Kansas St...LSU took Alabama to overtime....Toronto over Ottawa late...Hamilton wins against Montreal (half-credit)..,Cardinals big over the Rams. We'd like to be able to claim Minnesota's win over Iowa, but we didn't, so we can't.
Missteps: We said UL-Monroe would win against Appalachian St; the Warhawks gave up a late FG to lose 31-29...We were surprised Old Dominion beat FIU 38-35, but they had to score ten points in the last 65 seconds to do it...Ohio St beat Michigan St, on the road...Arizona St sure impressed us, handling Notre Dame...Didn't think Saskatchewan still had it in them to beat Edmonton...and the half-credit Hamilton was because we did NOT think the Tiger-Cats would win by enough to win the division (8). They won by fifteen. (Yes, that's more than eight.)
(And there's still the chance that Chicago could stay close to the Packers tonight.) So, right now, we are 10.5 - 5.5, so we will take that!
Successes: Bowling Green over Akron...NIU over Ball St...Temple closer than a TD to Memphis...Baylor destroying Oklahoma...Duke big over Syracuse...Army over UConn...TCU over Kansas St...LSU took Alabama to overtime....Toronto over Ottawa late...Hamilton wins against Montreal (half-credit)..,Cardinals big over the Rams. We'd like to be able to claim Minnesota's win over Iowa, but we didn't, so we can't.
Missteps: We said UL-Monroe would win against Appalachian St; the Warhawks gave up a late FG to lose 31-29...We were surprised Old Dominion beat FIU 38-35, but they had to score ten points in the last 65 seconds to do it...Ohio St beat Michigan St, on the road...Arizona St sure impressed us, handling Notre Dame...Didn't think Saskatchewan still had it in them to beat Edmonton...and the half-credit Hamilton was because we did NOT think the Tiger-Cats would win by enough to win the division (8). They won by fifteen. (Yes, that's more than eight.)
(And there's still the chance that Chicago could stay close to the Packers tonight.) So, right now, we are 10.5 - 5.5, so we will take that!
Thursday, November 6, 2014
Week 10 is upon us!
Starting the week 2-0 with our erudite flip-a-coin predictions (Bowling Green's "upset" of Akron Tuesday and NIU covering easily against Ball St; wish I could claim Kent St losing as a pick, but it wasn't going out on a limb!) gives us confidence as we proceed into the weekend's games!
As a reminder, we do NOT provide betting spreads in reference to actually placing money as bets on games. We DO NOT recommend betting on any sports activities. The information here is meant to be informational, recreational, and for the sheer heck of it.
We only have one solid pick for the lead-up games: Memphis should be favored by LESS than a TD at Temple. We have them just one tier apart, but Vegas credits this as a ten-point gap (the seven points plus accounting for three more with the Owls as the home team). It should be a close game; we would call it even.
So, let's look at Saturday's games! For the record, our actual "betting choices" will be underlined. (Just because we comment on a game doesn't mean we think the spread is wrong...)
***One of the things we've learned in grouping teams is that while the spread between individual tiers is generally between 1-2 points per tier, there are occasions when the far ends (tiers A and U) will "spread out more"; that is, the bell curve will stretch out to increase the gap between, say, teams in tiers T and U. Certainly, by mathematics, Tulsa is only one tier above SMU, and playing at home means the Golden Hurricane should get 4-5 points. The spread is twelve, and we agree. SMU is not just bad: they're horrific. Considering the great job June Jones had done with the recently defunct program, it's amazing how far off the map they've fallen. But when a 1-7 Tulsa team is a 12-point favorite to you, Mustangs...well, we're sorry.
***It's interesting to look at the places where the line differs from our tiers, and wonder who's wrong. In the MAC, it appears we did very well; with Iowa @ Minnesota and Baylor @ Oklahoma, though, it's hard not to wonder. The Hawkeyes are favored by two on the road against a team from their own tier. And frankly, we don't have the guts to disagree - the Gophers haven't looked as good recently, and they've faded in previous years. But we do like Baylor to cover and even WIN at Oklahoma, who is not the national favorite they were made out to be in August. (So...call it a compromise?)
***Similarly down south, Georgia is a ten point favorite AT Kentucky, just one tier below them...but it's easy to picture the Dawgs wanting to beat someone down after the shellacking Florida gave them last week. Not a bad point spread, even if Kentucky never gets any love. And Duke also suffers from poor image, even as they hold the keys to another division championship - they're only a 3 1/2 point fave at Syracuse. We like Duke to win this by more than that.
***Poor Texas A&M - three TD underdogs at Auburn Saturday. What high hopes they had! Now, with their QB situation so unsettled, it's hard to see them being in this game at all.
***Troy gets a TD against fellow Bottom Sixer Georgia St? Interesting...As noted above, the regular rules don't apply at the ends. But Appalachian St as a favorite against UL-Monroe? No chance. Take Monroe to win. We have that as a three-tier gap the other way. And Army should be favored over U Conn, not the other way around, especially AT Army! Finally, in the lower ranks, we see Florida International beating Old Dominion, even on the road; they're 4 1/2 point dogs in Vegas' eyes.
***The faith in Michigan fascinates us. Northwestern may indeed be fading, but to trust the Wolverines on the road right now - or ANYWHERE right now - is an act of true faith.
***The six big games this weekend are pretty easy to spot: Kansas St @ TCU (we like the Frogs), Ohio St @ Michigan St (we like the home team, no matter which school would have hosted this one), Oregon @ Utah (9 1/2 points is a big line, but we're not going against it), Alabama @ LSU (we have a hard time giving the Tide a TD here...aw, shoot. Go ahead and take LSU and the six points.), Notre Dame @ Arizona St (a really interesting line - Sun Devils by 1 1/2. We're inclined to take the Irish instead. They know how to win big games.), and the aforementioned Baylor @ Oklahoma (Bears over Sooners). They should ALL be great - keep the clicker handy!
As a reminder, we do NOT provide betting spreads in reference to actually placing money as bets on games. We DO NOT recommend betting on any sports activities. The information here is meant to be informational, recreational, and for the sheer heck of it.
We only have one solid pick for the lead-up games: Memphis should be favored by LESS than a TD at Temple. We have them just one tier apart, but Vegas credits this as a ten-point gap (the seven points plus accounting for three more with the Owls as the home team). It should be a close game; we would call it even.
So, let's look at Saturday's games! For the record, our actual "betting choices" will be underlined. (Just because we comment on a game doesn't mean we think the spread is wrong...)
***One of the things we've learned in grouping teams is that while the spread between individual tiers is generally between 1-2 points per tier, there are occasions when the far ends (tiers A and U) will "spread out more"; that is, the bell curve will stretch out to increase the gap between, say, teams in tiers T and U. Certainly, by mathematics, Tulsa is only one tier above SMU, and playing at home means the Golden Hurricane should get 4-5 points. The spread is twelve, and we agree. SMU is not just bad: they're horrific. Considering the great job June Jones had done with the recently defunct program, it's amazing how far off the map they've fallen. But when a 1-7 Tulsa team is a 12-point favorite to you, Mustangs...well, we're sorry.
***It's interesting to look at the places where the line differs from our tiers, and wonder who's wrong. In the MAC, it appears we did very well; with Iowa @ Minnesota and Baylor @ Oklahoma, though, it's hard not to wonder. The Hawkeyes are favored by two on the road against a team from their own tier. And frankly, we don't have the guts to disagree - the Gophers haven't looked as good recently, and they've faded in previous years. But we do like Baylor to cover and even WIN at Oklahoma, who is not the national favorite they were made out to be in August. (So...call it a compromise?)
***Similarly down south, Georgia is a ten point favorite AT Kentucky, just one tier below them...but it's easy to picture the Dawgs wanting to beat someone down after the shellacking Florida gave them last week. Not a bad point spread, even if Kentucky never gets any love. And Duke also suffers from poor image, even as they hold the keys to another division championship - they're only a 3 1/2 point fave at Syracuse. We like Duke to win this by more than that.
***Poor Texas A&M - three TD underdogs at Auburn Saturday. What high hopes they had! Now, with their QB situation so unsettled, it's hard to see them being in this game at all.
***Troy gets a TD against fellow Bottom Sixer Georgia St? Interesting...As noted above, the regular rules don't apply at the ends. But Appalachian St as a favorite against UL-Monroe? No chance. Take Monroe to win. We have that as a three-tier gap the other way. And Army should be favored over U Conn, not the other way around, especially AT Army! Finally, in the lower ranks, we see Florida International beating Old Dominion, even on the road; they're 4 1/2 point dogs in Vegas' eyes.
***The faith in Michigan fascinates us. Northwestern may indeed be fading, but to trust the Wolverines on the road right now - or ANYWHERE right now - is an act of true faith.
***The six big games this weekend are pretty easy to spot: Kansas St @ TCU (we like the Frogs), Ohio St @ Michigan St (we like the home team, no matter which school would have hosted this one), Oregon @ Utah (9 1/2 points is a big line, but we're not going against it), Alabama @ LSU (we have a hard time giving the Tide a TD here...aw, shoot. Go ahead and take LSU and the six points.), Notre Dame @ Arizona St (a really interesting line - Sun Devils by 1 1/2. We're inclined to take the Irish instead. They know how to win big games.), and the aforementioned Baylor @ Oklahoma (Bears over Sooners). They should ALL be great - keep the clicker handy!
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)