Prophecies for the second week of November - professional division!

Yesterday, we posted the Following Football ACNC predictions for the college games of the week (since the MAC starts on Tuesday for a few weeks, giving us something like 26 days of non-stop football! WHOOPEE!). Today, let's dive into the pros on our normal Wednesday edition of Prophecies In Phootball!

CANADIAN FOOTBALL LEAGUE - Playoff edition!

Here's the playoff grid for the CFL, having just played twenty-two weeks to eliminate three teams...

EASTERN division)   BC Lions @ Calgary Stampeders Saturday. The odds favor Calgary by, and we like them by even more: a 7-11 team travels to a 14-4 defending champion? Take Calgary plus the points.

Next Saturday, the winner goes to Edmonton to play the division champion Eskimos.

WESTERN division)   Toronto Argonauts @ Hamilton TigerCats Saturday. Again, the home team is favored by, and even so we're going to take Hamilton plus the points. The TiCats were the best team in the league for most of the season, and really didn't fade as much as have quarterback injury issues, while Ottawa nipped them at the wire in that spectacular home-and-home series the last two weeks. The Argos get their starting QB back, but we like the experience of Hamilton.

Next Saturday, the winner of this game goes to Ottawa to play the second-year RedBlacks for the division title!

Then, on November 29th, the 103rd Grey Cup will match the division champions for the title!


NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE - week ten

Here's our grid for the week - DEN+ means we like Denver to win by MORE than the point spread, and MIN- means that we like Minnesota to do better than losing by the point spread (either lose by less or win outright):

Week 10		(Nov 12-16)
Home		Away		Vegas Line	FF Ratings	My Pick
Jets		Bills		NJ -3	E/D -1	BUF -
Ravens		Jaguars		B -5.5	E/G -7	BAL +
Packers		Lions		GB -11.5	B/H -15	GB +
Eagles		Dolphins		PH -6.5	D/F -7	PHI +
Steelers		Browns		PT -4.5	C/H -13	PIT +
Rams		Bears		SL -8.5	C/F -9	CHI -
Buccaneers		Cowboys		TB -1.5	G/F -1	TB +
Titans		Panthers		CA -4.5	A/G -15	CAR +
Redskins		Saints		NO -1.5	F/F +3	WAS -
Raiders		Vikings		OAK -3	D/C+ 0	MIN -
Broncos		Chiefs		DN -6.5	B/C- -6	DEN +
Giants		Patriots		NE -7	E-/A -6	NE +
Seahawks		Cardinals		SE -3	B/B -3	no pick
Bengals		Texans		CN -10.5	A/G- -16	CIN +

And because we hadn't had a chance to publish them yet, here are the current tiers and rankings:

Tier A) 1. New England. 2. Cincinnati. 3. Carolina.

Tier B) 4. Denver. 5. Green Bay. 6. Arizona. 7. Seattle.

Tier C) 8. Minnesota. 9. St. Louis. 10. Pittsburgh. 11. Kansas City.

Tier D) 12. Atlanta. 13. Buffalo. 14. Philadelphia. 15. Oakland.

Tier E) 16. New York Jets. 17. Baltimore. 18. New York Giants.

Tier F) 19. New Orleans. 20. Washington. 21. Dallas. 22. Chicago. 23. San Diego. 24. Miami.

Tier G) 25. San Francisco. 26. Tampa Bay. 27. Indianapolis. 28. Tennessee. 29. Jacksonville. 30. Houston.

Tier H) 31. Cleveland. 32. Detroit. 

Prophecies, part one...

Just for convenience of publishing, here are the predictions for the professionals first...college football will come out later in the day:

Here are our predictions for All Hallow’s Eve weekend of football!

RUGBY) We think the New Zealand All-Blacks will continue their dominance and rout Australia by more than a try (five points). The finals are on NBC this Saturday – check your listings; we don’t remember what time. (And if you’ve never seen the Haka, tune in early just for that!)

NFL) For some reason, we think it’s a boring weekend in the National!....Football!...LEAGUE! Out of the fourteen games on the slate for week eight, we see twelve of them as the favorite beating the spread:

New England (-8) over the Jets; Kansas City (-4.5) over the Lions; Atlanta (-7.5) over Tampa; Baltimore (-3) over the Chargers; Minnesota (-1) over Da Bears; Arizona (-5) over the Browns; Houston (-4) over the Titans [this one makes us uncomfortable, though, because of both teams’ QB situations]; New Orleans (-3.5) over the Giants [this one also took a long time…]; the New York Jets (-2) over the Raiders; Seattle (-6) over the QB-less (and rudderless) Cowboys; Green Bay (-3) over Denver [wanted to take Denver, and all our metrics say to…but Aaron Rogers, man…]; and Carolina (-7) over the listing Colts.

The only two underdogs we’re going with this weekend are San Francisco (+8.5) against the Rams [it’s just too high a spread], and we like Pittsburgh (+1.5) to beat Cincinnati outright at home this weekend, as much as we like the Bengals. Call it the 6-0 jinx – we don’t see any of the others losing (except Denver or Green Bay to each other, which is required), and it’s hard to see four 7-0 teams moving forward. Pittsburgh with Landry Jones has a functional offense, and the Bengals have a down game coming…

CFL) Two weeks left! Playoff spots and positions are on the line! Here are the standings as we speak…

CANADIAN FOOTBALL LEAGUE 2015						Week 18			FF Elo-style
Western Team	W	L	PpG	PF	PA	Avg PF	Avg PA	P +/-	RATING	FF rank
Edmonton	13	4	1.53	426	319	25.1	18.8	107	36.4	2
Calgary	12	4	1.50	408	320	25.5	20.0	88	38.4	1 (-2)
BC Lions	6	10	0.75	403	433	25.2	27.1	-30	32.7	4 (-1)
Winnipeg	5	12	0.59	342	481	20.1	28.3	-139	23.6	8
Saskatchewan	2	14	0.25	381	497	23.8	31.1	-116	23.1	9
Eastern Team	W	L	PpG	PF	PA	APF	APA	P +/-	RATING	FF rank
Hamilton	10	6	1.25	496	335	31.0	20.9	161	35.0	3 (+2)
Ottawa	10	6	1.25	408	420	25.5	26.3	-12	27.4	6
Toronto	9	7	1.13	392	461	24.5	28.8	-69	24.3	7 (+3)
Montreal	6	10	0.75	342	332	21.4	20.8	10	29.9	5 (-2)

Hamilton and Ottawa happen to have their two remaining games with each other on back to back weeks, starting this Sunday in Hamilton and concluding in Ottawa on Saturday the 7^th. Meanwhile, Toronto gets two home games to end the year, against BC this Friday and Winnipeg next Friday, but to place first they have to depend on Ottawa and Hamilton tying both of their games! (The CFL computers give them a one-in-ten-thousand chance. Not sure how they figure it.) For the Ti-Cats and RedBlacks, it comes down to the head-to-head; Hamilton owns the tie breaker in a three-way tie; if Toronto falls by the wayside, it becomes a soccer playoff scoring – point differential in two games.

Meanwhile, Edmonton plays its last game of the season on Sunday, and if they win against 6-10 Montreal, they clinch the division. If they lose, Calgary’s got to win both this Saturday at home against poor Saskatchewan, and next Saturday in Vancouver.

There are three playoff spots in each division – the first place gets a bye, which is all-important, and hosts the winner of the third-at-second place game the week before. So, Hamilton, Ottawa, and Toronto are in for the East, while in the West it’ll be Edmonton, Calgary, and either BC or Montreal, who would get in using what they call the “crossover” rule – if a fourth place team is better than the other third place team, they steal that playoff spot! MY FAVORITE PLAYOFF RULE! Last year, it worked the other way: BC stole a spot in the East. So why not root for Montreal to steal the West spot this time? Basically, though, BC owns the tiebreaker, so Montreal must win more of their two remaining games (@ Edmonton and home v Saskatchewan) than British Columbia does (@ Toronto and v Calgary). Very possible. It’s also conceivable that Winnipeg steals the spot, but they’d have to win at Toronto next Friday and have Montreal and BC lose both games. Good luck, Blue Bombers.

Our Picks This Week) Toronto over BC, 28-20…Calgary routs the RoughRiders, 41-19… Hamilton edges Ottawa at home, 33-27…Edmonton clinches by beating Montreal, 31-13.

Welcome to the WILD WORLD OF WEEKEND WESULTS!

Welcome back to Following Football 2.0! Here are football results that span the globe, giving you the constant variety of footy...thanks Jim McKay, may you rest in peace!

For the NFL pre-season games, you have to sort of ignore the FINAL scores and look at how the guys who'll actually BE on the team did. 

PHI def IND, 36-10 (Tebow scored a td as quarterback, got a standing ovation when he came on),
HOU def SF, 23-10
MIN def TB, 26-16 (Jamies Winston was outplayed by Teddy Bridgewater)
KC def ARZ 34-16 (but Arizona led 10-0 when the first string came out at the end of the first quarter)
DEN def SEA 22-20 (no Manning, but Brock Osweiler scored on first five drives)
OAK def STL 18-3 (welcome to the big time, Amari Cooper!)
CIN def NYG 23-10 (listened to the game on radio - good signs on both sidelines)
JAX def PIT 23-21 (like last week, first string Steelers played well and led.)
CAR def BUF 25-24 (Bills' Matt Cassell 7 for 8 w a touchdown)
ATL def TEN 31-24 (Marcus Mariota went INT, fumble, TD drive)
SD def DAL 17-7 (rough for Cowboys, talk of LA for Chargers)
WSH def CLV 20-17 (Josh McCown has the best quote after theowing a TD to a WIDE open receiver: "He looked lonely, so I threw him the ball.")
CHI def MIA 27-10 (but Miami's first string won 10-3; Ryan Tannehill went 6-7 with a TD pass)
DET def NYJ 23-3 (Nebraska's Ammer Abdullah had a good first outing!)
BAL def NO 30-27 (Joe Flacco led his first atring to a "victory" early)
And finally, GB def NE 22-11 - Tom Brady did play two short series, going 1 for 4.

 (Of course, we have no record of predicting this season...we are officially 0-0!)

In the CFL, we actually went four for four, raising our record above 50% to 17-15 and up into the top 20% in competition with the Canada Crew:

Edmonton over Montreal 15-12 (after the Alouettes held a 12-0 lead)
Toronto over Winnipeg 27-20 (not as close as it looks)
Hamilton over BC 52-22 (the Cats absolutely dominated all phases of the game)
Calgary over Ottawa 48-3 (looks more like last year's champ over last year's 2-16)

So, right now Hamilton and Toronto in the East, and Calgary and Edmonton in the west, are all 5-2, with poor Saskatchewan still at 0-7 on their bye.

Finally, in the AFL, round 20, Fremantle got their fondest wish by losing to their fiercest rival, West Coast, by a score of 104-80, going down early by six goals and struggling back in the fourth to make it respectable.

Let me explain.

With the win, West Coast stays ahead of the defending champion Hawthorn Hawks for second, which if it held up for three more games would most likely mean that the Hawks will probably have to travel across country TWICE: once at West Coast, and again to play at Fremantle in the prelim finals. That's a tough challenge, even for Hawthorn. Fremantle is still going to end in first place, even with the loss, and if the Eagles can get past the Western Bulldogs next week, they should be able to stay ahead of Hawthorn for second, and both would host qualifying finals in the same stadium!

By the way, we're up to 126-45 this season, positioning us in the top 2% in every comptitive category of punters predicting Aussie footy outcomes (there are 180,000 in the afl.com.au contest!).

The rest of the games this weekend...

Western led Melbourne 76-2 before slowing down a bit to win by a 'mere' 98 points, 153-55, to solidify fourth place (and as discussed in Thursday thoughts this week, fourth is WAY better than fifth!)...Richmond similarly disposed of Gold Coast, although instead of it being the Bulldogs' brilliance, it was the Suns' attrition as even more players went down to injury in a 138-55 loss...Brisbane climbed out of the basement with a dominant win over new wooden spoon favorite Carlton, 131-67...Hawthorn and Geelong had another classic Kenneth Curse battle, this time with the Hawks winning handily, 121-85...Port Adelaide probably ended GWS' finals hopes with a 111-90 win in Adelaide over a team with no healthy midfielders...North Melbourne survived St. Kilda's first half onslaught and came back in the second to win in Tasmania, 120-83... Sydney showed what a champion team is made up, overcoming a great effort that should've given Collingwood a win, instead resulting in a Swans 87-76 victory...and finally, Adelaide utterly annihilated what was left of Essendon's self-esteem, winning 171-59 after Essendon actually WON the first quarter. Pity the poor Bombers' fans, who watch their team literally give up each and every game now.

As for standings, here they are, with three rounds to go: Fremantle (16-3), West Coast (14-4-1), Hawthorn (14-5), Western (13-6), Sydney (13-6), Richmond (12-7), N. Melbourne (12-7), and Adelaide (11-7-1) fill out the top eight for the moment who would make finals. Ninth is Geelong (10-8-1), GWS (10-8), Collingwood (9-10), Port Adelaide (9-10); then a gap down to St. Kilda (6-13), Melbourne (6-13), Essendon (5-14), Gold Coast (3-15-1), Brisbane (3-16), and Carlton (3-16).

Tomorrow, our regular Monday report features updated ratings and rankings, deeper observations from the weekend's action, and FREE TURNIPS FOR EVERYONE! Yes, that's right, we... Oh. Never mind; I've just been told that we can't do the turnip over the internet thing. Yet. 

The Weekend In Haiku

This feature WON'T be
As regular as the rest,
But, ONCE in a while...

Michael Sam retired.
Well, "stepped away from the game,"
But, two plus two is...

Pre-season football
Doesn't have the appeal, but...
Better than nothing!

Up twelve to nothing,
Alouettes' offense did SQUAT:
Edmonton by three.

Magpies SHOULD'VE won,
But Sydney KNOWS how to win.
Swans finish up nine.

Hamilton Ti-Cats
an-NI-hi-late the Lions:
Three complete phases.

Great night of footy!
Stayed up all night listening:
Then slept in past ten...

Hawthorn smashed Geelong;
Essendon has given up;
and Carlton's now last.

Not a haiku, but an amazing statistic... Friday was the start of the German Bundesliga (major league futbol, one of the European Champions leagues), and the odds of winning the league title for favorite Bayern Munich was 1-12, which means they are SO certain of winning that betting a "dollar" (sorry, I'm American) would only earn you a twelfth of a dollar in winnings (1.08), or that if you bet twelve euros, you'd only get thirteen back if they win. By contrast, every American NFL, NBA, or MLB team had odds of at least 2.5 to 1, so you'd win at least $2.50 plus your original dollar at the very worst.

Would love to say that
The N-F-L inspires me...
But not pre-season.

Here is the Canadian Football season in a nutshell so far:

Our selections in the AFL have been spot on all year; we've gotten 84 out of 116 correct this season, (75%) and sit in the top third of 1% in every grouping we're part of in the official AFL "tipping" contest (that's what they call predicting down under). So we know how to pick games. 

In the CFL, we're 3 out of 8 so far. (Which is better than the odds makers at BoDog, the official CFL gambling site, who have only gotten two games right so far.) Despite what actually passes as worse than "flip a coin" prognostication, we're in the top half of the pool already, and moving up. Go figure.

Last weekend, in Round 2, the Eastern Division somehow went 4-0 against the "vastly superior" West, with Hamilton annihilating 1-0 Winnipeg 52-26 - and that was the LEAST of the four results! - "quarterbackless Montreal crushing defending champion Calgary 29-11 behind first-time starter Raheem Cato (of Marshall U fame); Ottawa matched its 2014 win total sixteen games early by upending the British Columbia Lions 27-16; and in the game of the young season so far, two incredibly proficient teams went toe-to-toe, slugging it out as long as theoretically possible - more on that in a moment - before Toronto upset Saskatchewan in the Mosaic in Regina 42-40 in double overtime. Two great writers to follow on Canadian football are Don Landry and Pat Steinberg on cfl.ca; here are their wrap-ups.

Backup QB Trevor Harris drove the Argonauts down for the tying score late in the fourth, and the teams traded touchdowns (and missed mandatory 2-pt conversions) in the first overtime together. In the CFL, OTs are run in the same basic Kansas City format the NCAA uses, except each possession starts from the 35 (the extra ten yards account for the goal posts being ten yards closer, on the goal line itself). They only allow two overtimes at most in a regular season game, and 2-pt conversions are required on all TDs. The Roughriders made their second TD to come within two of Toronto in the second OT, and then on the by-definition last play of the game, the Argos stopped Saskatchewan from converting to win the game by two. 

So right now, Toronto and Ottawa are 2-0 in the East (Toronto has a 17 point higher rating at the moment), with Hamilton and Montreal a game back at 1-1. Calgary still leads the West, tied with Winnipeg at 1-1; BC and Edmonton each sit at 0-1, and the Roughriders have looked good two straight weeks and are 0-2 to show for it. 

Next week, we see these likelihoods:
Edmonton over Ottawa 19-13 at home...Winnipeg at home over Montreal 28-23...Saskatchewan over BC 30-24 in Vancouver...Calgary edging Toronto 24-23 at home. The Hamilton Ti-Cats have the week off.

The weekend in CFL and AFL action

Starting with the CFL, thanks to the quarterback MASH unit overflowing, we went 1-3 predicting winners and 0-4 betting on the line. Great start, FF! But we're honest when we screw up...and it was under mitigating circumstances! Check out the review of the four weekend games here - you'll see that if it wasn't for Montreal losing BOTH quarterbacks, they probably win against Ottawa...and if Edmonton doesn't lose Mike Reilly for the year, then Toronto may not win (y'know, we take that back. Trevor Harris made his second professional start for the Argos and went 24-27. They would've won regardless...)...and if Saskatchewan doesn't lose star QB Darian Durant in the game, they hold on to beat archrival Winnipeg. So, losing those games stings less than it might otherwise. GREAT Monday morning reviews of the weekend's action from Don Landry and Pat Steinberg for CFL.ca - LOTS of insight in a short read!

Regardless, there were four exciting games up north!

Week 1
Ottawa d. Montreal 20-16 (Game winning drive AND time draining drive by Ottawa!)
Calgary d. Hamilton 24-23 (Rene Paradis kicks winning FG with no time left)
Toronto d. Edmonton 26-11 (Harris dominates Reilly's replacement...)
Winnipeg d. Saskatchewan 30-26 (another game winning drive, this time Winnipeg's)

In the Australian footy league, the biggest story in Round 13 was Richmond's upset at Sydney, pulling away to win by 18 Friday night. Not only did it move the Tigers into the top 8 for the first time in a month, but it allows reigning premier Hawthorn to use their distinctive second half domination over rival Essendon (with some bad blood thrown in from the Hawks' Sam Mitchell!) to jump into the top four for the first time in two months! As those top four get the "double chance" in the playoffs, that's a critical distinction for any team. (Can we please wait to cover the details of the double chance until we reach August?)

The other four games went more or less to form: Fremantle def. Collingwood (but barely, by seven points); Adelaide waited until the fourth quarter to show their dominance over the Brisbane Lions, pulling away by 13 after trailing most of the game; the Western Bulldogs got revenge for the St. Kilda 55-point comeback on May 9, winning by 13; and Carlton proved they're starting to rise from the dead, beating still-deceased Gold Coast 103-69. (Oh, and we got five out of six right last week, missing on Richmond's upset.)

If you can throw a football, and you have a Canadian passport, please call...

What a disasterous start to the Canadian Football season! 

First of all, huge favorite Montreal loses a close game to Ottawa after losing both quarterbacks, leaving the game to a raw rookie who hadn't ever played with the offense in a game (he ran the scout team offense).

Next, the Edmonton Eskimos lost 26-11 to Toronto today in another upset when starting QB Mike Reilly left for the day, carted off the field with a leg injury.

And now, the Saskatchewan RoughRiders are trying to hang on as we speak against the lowly Winnipeg Blue Bombers after their star quarterback Darian Durant left at the end of the first half with an ankle injury he couldn't put an ounce of weight on. Fortunately for them, second stringer Kevin Glenn is a former starter himself, and that depth may allow them to end the weekend as the top Western Division team, the big survivor of Death To Quarterbacks weekend! (Tied at 23 at the moment, though...)

And if they're long term injuries - and early reports are that at least one of Montreal's is season-ending - then Calgary's Bo Levi Mitchell is the MVP in waiting as the only surviving star QB!

By the way, before the weekend, here were the Grey Cup championship odds...

Calgary - 13 to 4             (3.25 - 1)
Saskatchewan - 5 to 1    (5 - 1)
Edmonton - 11 to 2         (5.5 - 1)
British Columbia - 6 to 1 (6 - 1)
Hamilton - 13 to 1           (6.5 - 1)
Montreal/Toronto - 8 to 1 each (8 - 1)
Winnipeg - 17 to 2           (8.5 - 1)
Ottawa - 20 to 1              (20 - 1)

It'll be interesting to see how they change next weekend! 

As the pre-season ends up north...

...and the end of a few CFL careers come with the final cutdown tomorrow, we take a look at the final exhibition games and the starting Following Football ratings for the CFL:

- Troubled Toronto handles rival Montreal 30-10, to my surprise (the Argonauts don't play in their Rogers Centre home until August, including having to play a "home game" in Ft. McMurray next weekend. Their ownership is changing and the current owner's not likely to spend another dime on the Argos this year...)
-Hamilton over Winnipeg 26-15, posting a 2-0 preseason after two easy games against the two weakest teams after playing Grey Cup last November.
-Edmonton traveled to Vancouver and beat the BC Lions 18-13. They also went 2-0, but defeated two good teams in Saskatchewan and the Lions.
-Speaking of Saskatchewan, their broadcast went live on line tonight, so we watched them compete marvelously against the defenders from Calgary, who showed their class by coming back from being down all game to score the last two TDs and win 37-29.

Calgary certainly deserves the highest rating going into the 2015 season, which starts on Thursday night. Here's our picks for week one, with the FF Elo-style ratings in parentheses...

Thursday, Montreal (29.6) at Ottawa (10.1) - M should win 33-7.
Friday, Hamilton (29.9) at Calgary (48.9) - C should win, 34-21.
Saturday, Edmonton (38.1) "at" Toronto (29.9) - E in a close one, 31-28.
Saturday, Winnipeg (20.1) at Saskatchewan (30.0) - we see S big, 35-17.
(And in an odd-team league, it's the BC Lions (32.9) with the bye to start the season.)

If you're interested in joining me in the CFL Pick'em contest, go to cfl.ca and register before Thursday night! It's free, it's quick (only four games to pick each week), and it'll give you some insight into the Canadian game! Twelve men flying in all directions, three downs, big field - it's a blast!

Canadian update...

A great place to look for quick hitters on each of the teams in the CFL is the "Checking Down" column that runs on the cfl.ca page every week...This week, it includes some interesting pieces on the Michael Sam situation: Sam has left the Montreal Alouette camp amidst speculation that he's getting harassed - ironically, not about his homosexuality but for appearing on Dancing With The Stars over the off-season (especially instead of training to make a roster). 

Also of interest last week was the Edmonton/Saskatchewan game held up in Fort McMurray, Alberta, opening the brand new stadium there, Shell Place (and it's gorgeous! Take a look!) To give you Yankees some perspective on life in Canada (or "Canadia", as my son keeps mistakenly referring to it), this is a thing there: The game was the most northerly CFL game ever played. Remember, in Canada, you're already pretty far north - everything is above the northern borders of the US, which means north of Minnesota, North Dakota, Maine, Ohio, etc... which means it can get COLD there. (Hockey. Remember?) And the farther north you go... Yeah, you got the picture now. Fort McMurray isn't ridiculously far, but it is 250 miles north of Edmonton, already above Canada's backbone Highway 1 by several hundred miles itself. They'll be playing a regular season game there in July, and Aerosmith hits the stage in July as well. The design of the stadium is brilliant: the stage sits at one end of the football field, waiting for seating to go in when they need it!

Scores? You want pre-season scores? Well, besides Edmonton defeating Saskatchewan 31-24 up north, Montreal knocked off Ottawa 26-9, defending champ Calgary easily handled British Columbia 20-6, and Winnipeg upset Toronto by a touchdown, 34-27. This Thursday and Friday hold the last four pre-season games before the final roster cuts and the start of the season next Thursday night, on the 25th of June. Following Football has its ELO-style rating system in place and will finalize ratings and be providing you with the opportunity for predictions leading into each week of the Canadian Football League season this year!

Along the lines of the FF rating system for the AFL...

...comes the Following Football CFL rating system! (Yeah...we're bored. What's your point?)

This was formulated using the numbers from the last three CFL seasons (except for Ottawa, who was an expansion franchise in 2014), with each season being worth half of the one that followed it. The ratings have been normalized with 30 as a median, so that the sum of all the ratings should always equal 30*9 teams=270:

Calgary Stampeders           48.5
Edmonton Eskimos            37.7
British Columbia Lions     32.5
Saskatchewan R.Riders    29.6
Hamilton Tiger-Cats          29.5
Toronto Argonauts             29.5
Montreal Alouettes             29.2
Winnipeg Blue Bombers   20.2
Ottawa REDBLACKS           13.3

A few interesting notes about this rating system as it's played out...
--- Calgary seems really high, but that's what you get when you're as dominant as they were last year, plus very solid seasons the two previous years. It remains to be seen if that rating accurately predicts scores, however - my guess is that it's too high for that purpose.
---Given an average score of 30, it's funny to see only three of nine teams above thirty. Of course, having four teams in the 29s makes up for it! That's about how close those teams have been the last couple of years!
---What will home field advantage be worth? Traditionally, three points, but whether that works with this rating system is still anyone's guess. 
---Like Calgary, Ottawa is so far off the norm that it's anyone's guess whether that number will be accurate or useful in predicting outcomes and scores for the REDBLACKS, the only fully-capitalized team in professional sports! The great thing about these rating systems, though, is that they self-normalize over time - if they're not accurate yet, they will be soon!

So, we'll have to wait and see how this plays out over the course of the 22-game CFL season. We'll track the games here, right alongside the AFL in the early season and the NFL in the fall and winter. As need be, we may adjust the numbers slightly in the pre-season as we "tweak" the set-up for its initial use.

Play ball!

Highlights of the upcoming Week 12...

Games of interest for the week of November 18-24, 2014...

RIVALRIES! North Carolina @ Duke Thursday night (Duke favored by 6-9 points), and the Kansas City Chiefs head to Oakland Raiders that night as well (KC by 8). The other big FBS rivalries are in California: Stanford @ Cal in the afternoon, and USC @ UCLA in the evening (both FF and Vegas favor the Bruins by 3, so it's a pick'em game on a neutral field!). But the really fun rivalries are in the FCS, where Saturday is the day of The Game: Yale @ Harvard (Harvard should be a 16 point favorite), as well as two classics out west: Sacramento St @ UC Davis (the Hornets are favored by one on the road) and Montana St @ Montana (the Griz should win by 4 at home). Update: upsets Thursday! Duke loses BIG, 45-20, and the Raiders beat the spread AND KC, 24-20!

CANADIAN LEAGUE CONFERENCE FINALS on Sunday! It's going to be Montreal @ Hamilton,  the rubber match of the Eastern Conference slugfest! Hamilton won the last game of the season by more than Montreal beat them earlier, thereby securing the home field for this game to determine the East's entry into the 102nd Grey Cup! We see this as a pick'em game on a neutral field, so give the Ti-Cats the edge at home by three.

Meanwhile, Edmonton earned the right to travel to Calgary for the Western Conference final, where they'll be heavy underdogs against the best team in the regular season at 15-3. We pick the Stampeders by 10 at home, but Edmonton has shown that they're the best hope of preventing Calgary from raising the Cup this year, with a pair of 9-9 teams battling for the chance to face this game's winner next week.

BACK ON THIS SIDE OF THE 49th PARALLEL, there are some great games coming up this weekend! The K-State/WVU matchup Thursday should be a lot of fun, as will Minnesota @ Nebraska on Saturday. Curiosity as to what Kansas will do at Oklahoma - can they continue the strong play of their last two (home) games? Arizona @ Utah offers a hope of some great play, as does Ole Miss @ Arkansas.

THERE ARE SOME BAD MATCH-UPS out there, too...Why are you playing FCS teams at this stage of the season, Florida? Georgia? Alabama? Auburn? For all the chest-puffing and boasting the SEC does, games like this (against Eastern Kentucky, Charleston Southern, Western Carolina, and Samford) make them look foolish and scared. Which is foolish, since they could easily schedule a lower level FBS school if they needed another bodybag game, for the pre-season! If you need a break from the admitted rigors of the SEC schedule, put a bye in there!

The worst one, however, is our old pal Savannah St, who plays their (ahem) traditional rival BYU on Saturday afternoon. Our tier system and Sagarin's ratings make this about a 55-point spread, meaning the Cougars should win by eight touchdowns. WHY? Why play this game at all? Was BYU that desperate for a game that they had to schedule the lowest level FCS team they could find? 

There are two other interesting games in the FCS: former multiple champion Youngstown St plays at current multiple champion North Dakota St (the Bison are twenty point faves), and on the other end of the scale, Towson goes to bottom-feeder Rhode Island, just about the only team lower than they are (Towson's a seven point fave).

And we CAN'T FORGET THE NFL, the league that never goes dark! Following the Adrian Peterson verdict today (out the rest of the season), it'll be interesting to see the Viking crowd reaction when Green Bay comes in Sunday and runs up fifty on them,too. Detroit's got a big challenge, going to New England the week after seeing them annihilate Indy. Miami has a great test this week too, going into Mile High to face Denver. Finally, in the spirit of the SEC, the Jacksonville Jaguars go into Lucas Oil Stadium to face the Indianapolis Colts, a 15-point favorite (a line you very rarely see in the NFL, but a very accurate one in our opinion). Pittsburgh and Carolina get the last byes of the season this week.