Weekend Wesults!

NOT a great weekend for the prognosticators!

In the CFL, we went 2-2, with both Montreal and British Columbia pulling major upsets on Friday night. Of course, it wasn't just us - Jamie Nye of CFL.ca went the same 2-2, and the oddsmakers actually went 1-3, choosing Winnipeg over Ottawa for some reason. Only Edmonton's win helped them salvage a game.... So, with two weeks left, we're fairly locked in at about the 80% mark in the CFL pundits' pool, but we're floating just one game behind Nye (42 to 43 correct), and that's what we're hoping to catch in these last eight chances before the playoffs. (We chose the same four winners last week, so no chance to catch up.) Our Record is 42-31 straight up, 42-29-2 against the spread. 

In the NFL, everyone blew chunks this week! Discounting tonight's Arizona game, we went 5-8 against the odds makers...but both Sagarin and ELO (538) predicted two winners out of thirteen against the spread! Actually, the Following Football tiers went 7-5-1, far better than all other contenders...except we thought we knew better in a few cases, and picked against them. Whoops.
Straight up winners, we all went 9-4, for what it's worth. Our Record is 70-32 straight up, 60-41 against the spread.

And in college ball, we went 25-21-1 against the actual Vegas spreads (on FBS only games, the only place you have spreads in Vegas), and straight up, a pretty solid 39-8. Then, in the FCS games, where we're basically inventing a spread based on the Sagarin ratings, the HERO Sports predictions, and our own Following Football tier system forecasts, our prognostications were saved by going 7-0 against our spread in the Historically Black College conferences, meaning we went 30-24 overall ATS. In picking winners, we were 39-15, with lots of upsets in the Colonial (poor James Madison in particular, who had ESPN there and everything, only to get beaten by Richmond 59-49!) and the Pioneer (also 2-3 straight up, including a loss by league-leader Jacksonville). Our Record now is 600-167 straight up and 361-305 (dropping pushes) against the spread.

To finish our FCS conversation from yesterday...

Yesterday, we laid out the 24 teams we believe most likely to make the FCS playoffs - North Dakota St, Illinois St, Youngstown St, South Dakota St, Northern Iowa and Indiana St from the MVC; Eastern Washington, Montana, Idaho St, and Montana St from the Big Sky; New Hampshire, Villanova, James Madison and Richmond from the Colonial; Sam Houston St, SE Louisiana, and Stephen F Austin from the Southland Conference;  Jacksonville St, Eastern Illinois, and Eastern Kentucky from the Ohio Valley Conference; Coastal Carolina and Liberty from the Big South; St. Francis (PA) OR Bryant from the Northeast Conference; and Jacksonville from the Pioneer League.

Ah, the Pioneer League! Our FCS island of castaways. Sun Belt Light. When the two teams who've won titles in your league are as distant from each other as Jacksonville (FL) and San Diego (CA), there's something not-so-natural about your league. Its denizens come from across the country, teams that couldn't latch on to the stronger leagues in their own necks of the woods. 

Using the Sagarin Rating system to conceptualize the relative strengths of the teams, let's give you a sense of the realities of the Pioneer League:
Median Sagarin Rating for each FCS conference:
Missouri Valley: 63 (meaning the middle team in the conference is at 63)
Big Sky: 46
Colonial: 50
Ohio Valley: 49
Southland: 52
Big South: 52
Northeast: 49

By comparison, Jacksonville is at 43, and leads the Pioneer by ten points. 
Here are the current Sagarin ratings for the other teams in the Pioneer - notice the range of locations as well... 
*Drake (IL), San Diego (CA), and Dayton (OH) - 33
*Marist (NY) - 25
*Campbell (NC) - 22
*Butler (IN) - 19
*Valparisio (IN) and Morehead St (KY) - 18
*Stetson (FL) - 17
*Davidson (NC) - 6.

The only schools whose teams are anywhere near these ratings in the FCS are legends to Bottom Eight readers of Following Football: Nicholls St (17), Houston Baptist (13), Robert Morris (19), Delaware St (19), and good ol' Savannah St (12), who plays two or three big time FBS schools like Florida St and Oklahoma, usually losing by 70-80 points.

Here at Following Football, we are just as interested with the bottom of the list as the top. As we are handicapped by not getting TV coverage of these fine schools' teams, we will start the season's FCS Bottom Five from these Sagarin ratings from the end of 2014:

 Davidson, Robert Morris, Houston Baptist, Stetson, and Nicholls St.

However, we'll keep track of all of these schools, and keep you informed on both ends of the spectrum in 2015!