Showing posts with label Colts. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Colts. Show all posts

Monday, October 19, 2015

Maybe you just shouldn't punt!

After last night's disaster by the Indianapolis Colts (represented here, including a version by the Maine 1-AA team that shows how it might have meant to work), and the unbelievable last play of the Michigan/Michigan State game Saturday, perhaps we should all just go Pulaski Academy and never punt the ball again!

There's been a serious move in the "punt-less" direction over the last two years, where coaches "challenge the conventional wisdom" by going for it on fourth down around midfield, or even slightly on their own side of the field if it's short enough; but no somber commitment to the cause. I consider myself somewhat conservative in my approach, and here's the set of general rules I'd use as a head football coach if I were ever forced into the job...

Past midfield? Never punt.
Between your own 30 and midfield?Go for 4th and anything less than 3. Maybe 4-5, depending...
Behind your own 30? Go for 4th and 1 or less. Maybe 2...

(Subject to what kind of team I have, the opponent, the conditions, the time left in the game, etc.)

So, why don't more coaches punt less - like, WAY less? Here's the take of Paul Dalen, who wrote the piece for SB Nation about the math behind Pulaski's work linked above...
I don't think this kind of analysis would be a surprise to any decent coach. So, why do coaches "play it safe" (as if it weren't safer to make the choice to score more points)?
The answer to that, I think, lies in the way that we view errors of commission versus errors of omission. Or in other words, a coach that makes a choice to punt the ball from the 20-yard line would be viewed as making sound decisions, whereas one that chooses to go for it on the 20-yard line is considered a risk-taker. If the decision to punt turns out to be the decision that gives the ball back and the opponent then scores a TD, then the decision to punt is hardly considered as part of the evaluation of the sequence of events. If the decision to go for it fails and the opponent scores a TD, then the decision will be second-guessed ad nauseum. The result of both decisions is the same, but one would be criticized much more harshly than the other.
Humans are funny creatures.
We are indeed...we are indeed.

(Now, by the way, Kevin Kelley of Pulaski Academy also believes in onside kickoffs after almost every score - and they score a LOT; they're 10-0 this season - and now, he's planning on incorporating rugby style lateral passing into virtually every downfield play, something I've wondered about for years! WHY, if we think it'll work on the last play of the game, do we NEVER use downfield laterals the REST of the game? Wouldn't practicing it make it less dangerous by an order of magnitude or more?)

Thursday, September 24, 2015

Terminal Thursday Thoughts

I've talked about this all week, and this is my last scheduled post of the cycle, so let me start and end with the reminder: if you're reading this blog and want it to continue more or less as I'm doing...
COMMENT ON THIS POST THIS WEEK!

The issue, of course, is that as much as I love doing this blog, as much as crunching numbers to quantify and align teams at their supposed performance levels is fun for me to do...the time and effort it takes to do the thorough job for all of the teams I feel need to be covered each week is more than I have available to me, at least when you combine that with my regular (read: "paying") job, caring for my children, and the deteriorating condition of my health (which has zero to do with this blog). 

In the past, I've had people from Idaho, California, Nevada, North Carolina and Washington who've contacted me about what they've read, and I've known through that kind of anecdotal evidence that we were reaching people, that what we were doing was valued by someone out there. It's not like we need a thousand regular readers, but if we don't have any, which is what the lack of comment feedback suggests, we're just "spitting into the wind", as they say.

If that's not the case, we need you to tell us so.

CONTACT us through the comment section on this or either of the other two posts over the last two days (our regular UPS and DOWNS column, and our PROPHECIES in PHOOTBALL overview of the weekend's procedings (which starts today with the Giants and "Redskins" - an article on line today suggesting the life expectancy of the latter name is close to becoming a finite, definable number). 


Here's a thought we were having ourselves that 538 picked up this morning - there seem to be a bunch of "good teams" in the NFL who have started their season 0-2, usually an indicator that the playoffs are out of reach for most. Consider this list of teams: Seattle, Baltimore, Indianapolis, Houston, Detroit, NJ Giants, and Philadelphia. History suggests that ONLY ONE of those seven teams will make it into the post-season! (I've not "forgotten" New Orleans and Chicago. That was intentional.) The chart below in the 538 article shows that of the 7-8 teams over the last two years to go 0-2, only one made the playoffs each year.To make the postseason, most of the time it'll take at least ten wins - and you only have fourteen games left to do so it. A tall order, given that something's not going well to begin with (or you wouldn't be 0-2!). 

(By the way, my thought is that the best bet for a playoff team out of this group is the winner of the Indy/Houston race, as Jax and the Titans are unlikely to reach more than eight wins apiece.)



Sunday, September 13, 2015

QUICK! Before Sunday's games start!

It occurs that we told you the consensus choices other pundits as far as the upcoming NFL season goes, but you've not gotten the benefit of the wisdom of the proven leader in prognostication - Following Football!

So, here are our division projections: 

AFC)

EAST: 1) New England. 2) Miami. Close 3) Buffalo. Distant 4) New York Jets.
NORTH: 1) Baltimore by two full games. 2) Pittsburgh. 3) Cincinnati. 4) Vacant. 5) Cleveland.
SOUTH: 1) Indianapolis. 2, closer than you think) Houston. 3, farther than they'd like) Jax. 4) Tennessee.
WEST: All four teams will have at least six wins AND losses... 1) Denver. 2) San Diego. 3) Kansas City. 4) Oakland, all within four games.

NFC)

EAST: 1) Philadelphia IF Sam Bradford is one of the 10-12 best QBs in the league; otherwise Dallas. 2) figure it out... 3) New York Giants. 4 with a stone) Washington.
NORTH: 1) Green Bay. 2) Minnesota. 3) Detroit.
SOUTH: 1) Vacant. 2) Carolina, reluctantly. 3) New Orleans and Atlanta (tie). 4) Tampa Bay.
WEST: 1) Seattle. 2) Arizona. 3) St. Louis. 4) San Francisco.

4) Chicago. (Not a typo.)

PLAYOFFS: AFC seed 3 Baltimore def. seed 6 Houston...seed 5 Pittsburgh def. seed 4 Denver. NFC seed 3 Philadelphia def. seed 6 Arizona...seed 5 Dallas def. seed 4 Carolina.

AFC seed 1 New England def. seed 5 Pittsburgh...seed 3 Baltimore def. seed 2 Indianapolis. NFC seed 1 Green Bay def. seed 5 Dallas...seed 2 Seattle def. seed 3 Philadelphia.

AFC Championship: New England def. Baltimore...NFC Championship: Green Bay def. Seattle.

SUPER BOWL: Green Bay and Cal Berkeley grad Aaron Rodgers def. New England and Bay Area product Tom Brady in Super Bowl 50 in Santa Clara, CA.

Thursday, September 3, 2015

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Responsibility and Integrity of the Game

What is the responsibility of a team to put out its best players for a regular season game, even when it's not otherwise in their best interest to do so?

It seems to happen in a game or two every year, regardless of sport. End of season, one team with something to play for, the other not so much - either because they've got their playoff spot locked up, or they're just biding their time having already been eliminated. (You see it in the NBA mid-year sometimes, when a coach will rest older stars after a tough stretch of games.) Does the second team have an obligation to put a competitive team out there in such a game - either "for the paying customers" or, more usually, "for the integrity of the game"?

As the last round of the AFL season approaches this weekend, there are a couple of games in which this very question arises. Fremantle, having already locked up home field advantage, has no statistical reason to play its stars, and every motivation to rest them for next week's critical opening playoff game. As many as ten of its best players may sit out Saturday's game against ninth place Port Adelaide; fortunately, this game ended up having no bearing on playoff positions, as Port cannot break into the top eight under any circumstances. It did change the betting line from a fairly even game in Adelaide to the current line of almost fifty points in Port's favor, though. Oddly, where it's going to have an impact is in the WAFL, where Fremantle's "minor league feeder team", the Peel Thunder, plays. Peel is in its opening playoff round this weekend...but needs to supply up to ten players to the Dockers to fill out their roster against Port, leaving it undermanned in a playoff game. Business is business, but that seems terribly unfair to the team you've partnered with!

The more punitive scenario this week happens in Melbourne, where Friday's Richmond/North Melbourne match has been sullied (my words) by North's decision to rest up to ten of ITS players this weekend in anticipation of playing the Tigers again next week in an elimination final. By essentially conceding this game (and foregoing, by the way, the potential possibility of moving up as high as sixth if Western were to lose big, and therefore earning a home game themselves!), North has also prevented the Adelaide Crows from the possibility of passing Richmond and thus earning themselves a home game next week, a fact which has the Crows management understandably incensed. The Kangaroos' defense hinges on the fact that they've had two short weeks of preparation in a row (Sunday to Saturday, Saturday to Friday) and the players have been impacted by that: a defensible argument, admittedly. Broadcaster and retired superstar Wayne Carey sported a frightening thought on afl.com.au's "Pick A Winner" broadcast Thursday:

"The Kangaroos now can put in 8-10 players that are not going to play finals footy. They can go out and maim Richmond players," Carey said on AFL.com.au's Pick A Winner.
"They can go hard, they can be told by Brad Scott 'Go out there, hit this side as hard as you can, because it looks like we'll be playing them again next week'.
"I think the AFL really opened up a can of worms here and watch this space."
Carey said the Roos resting players was "a completely different situation" to minor premiers Fremantle sparing up to 11 regular players a final round trip to face Port Adelaide, because the Dockers-Power clash won't affect finals positions.
"Whereas I think this does manipulate where the Kangaroos and obviously the Tigers and Adelaide (finish), so it does have some bearing on the finals," Carey said.
"This rule has to change, because now the one game that had something riding on it all of a sudden has been manipulated by resting players."
(By the way, Carey was a North Melbourne player himself, so this isn't about bias...)

Another situation that happens along these lines is whether or not bottom of the ladder teams need to play their top line players at the end of the season when competing against sides that have "something to play for" or, as is generally accepted, run some youngsters through the mill after their own elimination from contention to see what the potential is for next year and beyond. Very few people question that use of a roster, and in fact if your first team isn't getting the job done, it's often the case that injecting that fresh blood into the lineup will improve the performance of the team anyway!

But what if you're in a system (like virtually every major professional sport is) where your draft order is determined by the reverse order of finish? Doesn't it behoove teams like Brisbane, Carlton, and Gold Coast in the AFL to lose as many games as they can to secure the highest draft position they can? In America, it's the NBA which has suffered under the strongest perception of this tanking prospect (I can think of 76 situations off the top of my head...). and it's what drove the league into the lottery system thirty years ago - a solution which hasn't solved the problem. To their credit, it's hard to make an argument that any of the three AFL teams named has overtly tanked this last month or so - they're just not very good, to be honest. But how do you draw the line?

It brings to mind the high school basketball tournament where both teams tried to lose a game at the same time to avoid playing the top seeded team...and if you click on the link, you'll see just how comical it got. Justifiably, both teams were suspended and removed from the tournament.

But it goes back to sportsmanship, and how you choose to answer the question, "What do we as a team owe the sport, owe the league, and owe our own integrity?"

It seems everyone has a different answer. Many people feel completely justified in the Al Davis / Oakland Raiders approach, "Just Win, Baby!"...which, ironically, doesn't always include the need to try to win; as long as you're doing what's in YOUR best interest, that's all that matters.

I disagree.

There's a risk any time you take the field, yes, but you cannot "turn it on and off" like a switch - ask the Manning Colts in those years when they ran up those 13-1 records and coasted the last couple of games...and proceeded to lose game one of the playoffs to a team who was still in competition mode. If you have legitimately injured players, by all means, rest them. But NEVER tell your players to give less than their best on the field - that's when injuries occur. If you're charging full price for your tickets, your fans deserve a full price game. (Which brings up the travesty of charging full price for pre-season tickets, but that's a subject you can already tell which side of the fence we'll fall on...)

In the end, morals and good sportsmanship MUST win out. If other teams are depending on you to play a fair and competitive game, you need to do so - despite legislative opinion to the contrary, pro sports leagues are ONE entity, working out of a dozen or three franchises, and anything one does that hurts the entirety of the league is a mistake. If that needs to be "legislated" by a commissioner or governing body, you shouldn't be running a sports team: you haven't learned the basics of "sports-man-ship" yet.

Thursday, August 20, 2015

THURSDAY THOUGHTS - Vegas' thoughts on the NFL and NCAA

Welcome to Thursday Thoughts, and today's thoughts are regarding the outcomes of the American brand of football, currently in pre-production but opening at a stadium near you in the next few weeks!

Ya wanna start with the pros first? Okee-doky! 

Here are the combined rankings from six leading prognosticators, including scouting combines, media sources, and casino oddsmakers, on a 4-3-2-1 vote from top to bottom:

A perfect score would be 24 (six groups score a team as most likely to win the division). FOUR teams are considered locks to win their NFL divisions...


AFC East: New England
AFC South: Indianapolis
NFC North: Green Bay
NFC West: Seattle

Not coincidentally, those are the four teams considered most likely to win the Super Bowl this year! Green Bay was chosen as Super Bowl 50 champion in four of the six surveys; Indy and Seattle won one each.

The other division winners are projected as follows: 
AFC West: Denver (5 of 6 chose the Broncos)
 AFC North: Baltimore (4 of 6 chose the Ravens)
NFC East: Dallas (3 out of 6 chose the Cowboys, with one tie)
NFC South: Carolina (3 out of six chose the Panthers, with one tie).

Overall, adding up the general perceptions of these six organizations, we get something like this:

AFC playoff teams                                                     NFC playoff teams
1. Indianapolis (#3 overall)                                          1. Green Bay (#1 overall)
2. New England (#4 overall)                                        2. Seattle (#2 overall)
[So, the consensus is a new match-up in the Super Bowl this year!]
3. Denver (#5 overall)                                                  3. Dallas (#6 overall)
4. Baltimore (#8 overall)                                              4. Carolina (#14 overall)
5. Pittsburgh (#9 overall)                                             5. Philadelphia (#7 overall)
6. Cincinnati (#11 overall)                                            6. Arizona (#10 overall)
[Not many new teams...and close races in the AFC North and NFC East again!...]
Below those teams...
7. Miami (#12 overall)                                                  7. New Orleans (#17 overall)
[AND the NFC South again, though they maybe not so lousy...and Miami missed by ONE vote!]
8. Kansas City (#13 overall)                                         8. Minnesota (#18 overall)
9. Buffalo (#15 overall)                                                9. New Jersey Giants (#19 overall)
10. San Diego (#16 overall)                                         10. Detroit (#21 overall)
11. Houston (#20 overall)                                            11. Atlanta (#22 overall)
12. New Jersey Jets (#25 overall)                                12. St. Louis (#23 overall)
13. Jacksonville (#28 overall)                                      13. San Francisco (#24 overall)
14. Cleveland (#30 overall)                                          14. Chicago (#26 overall)
15. Oakland (#31 overall)                                             15. Washington (#27 overall)
16. Tennessee (#32 overall)                                         16. Tampa Bay (#29 overall)

Our meta-analysis is that these folks aren't taking the last-becomes-first-overnight nature of the NFL into account enough...but then, how do you predict unpredictability, anyway?

As for the NCAA crown, well, there's one definitive front-runner there, too...

Here are the odds from the top tier of one of the major worldwide gambling sites as of this week:

Winner of the 2016 NCAA (Division 1A) FBS Championship Game
Ohio State (5 to 1 odds)
Alabama (8.5 to 1)
TCU (9 to 1)
Auburn, USC (both 15 to 1)
Oregon (17 to 1)
Baylor and Florida St (19 to 1)
LSU and Michigan State (21 to 1)
Clemson and Oklahoma (26 to 1)
Notre Dame (29 to 1)
UCLA, Georgia, and Ole Miss (all 34 to 1)
Mississippi State and Stanford (both 41 to 1)

From there, it descends into about ten teams at each level, as you get into the "just how unrealistic IS this?" game. These numbers seem very typical of the thinking most pundits have at the moment. [My personal thought reading the rest of the list is that if you were going to put a Group of Five team in that CFP this year, it would have to be Boise State, as they're the only one with a track record long enough that an undefeated season might just get them in. It's strange, then, in a season where they're universal favorites to win the Mountain West (only Ohio State is as big a conference fave), they're sitting BEHIND five Group of Five teams, TWO of which are in the Mountain West - the same teams they're predicted to whup this year. Weird. It's not like it's going to ever happen, but it might be worth plunking a fiver down on the Broncos at 251-1 to win the national championship!] 

Ohio State is certainly everyone's favorite at the moment, deservedly so. As mentioned, the Buckeyes and Broncos are the only teams in the realm of get-back-less-than-what-you-bet favorites to win their conferences, both around the "bet three or four to win one" dollar mark. But that's a hard target to wear on your back all season long - you'll have to be able to win when you're not playing well. because everyone will come at you with their best shot this year! 

Tuesday, July 14, 2015

Optimism is such a wonderful thing!

ESPN asked each of its bloggers assigned to each of the 32 teams in the NFL to predict their team's record, independently of the other 31 bloggers. 

They did so.

The records, as they sit, seem pretty reasonable...until you add them up.

Somehow, there will be fifty more wins than losses this year.

That's right: the NFL as a whole will go 281-231, apparently playing FCS schools like the Power Five do to puff up their records! Won't that be interesting? 

So, here's the record synopsis. If you want to be closer to reality, subtract one win (technically, 25/32 of a win, just under .8) from each team and add it to the loss column:

NFC East: Dallas 11-5; Philly 10-6; NYG 8-8; Washington 6-10.
NFC North: GB 11-5; Minnesota 9-7; Detroit 8-8; Chicago 7-9.
NFC South: Carolina 10-6; NO Saints 10-6; Atlanta 8-8; Tampa 8-8. (This is my favorite! I think you can subtract all 25 wins from these teams and be more accurate. Remember, the Panthers won the division at 7-9 last year!)
NFC West: Seattle 11-5; Arizona 9-7; St. Louis 8-8; SF 7-9. (On the other hand, this may be about right!)
AFC East:New England 11-5 (but then again,that may be inflated!); Miami 9-7; Buffalo 9-7; NY Jets 8-8. (Hard to picture THIS division all at .500 or above, either!)
AFC North: Cincinnati 10-6; Pittsburgh 9-7; Baltimore 9-7; Cleveland 4-12.
AFC South: Indy 13-3; Houston 10-6; Jax 7-9; Tennessee 5-11. 
AFC West: Denver 13-3; KC 9-7; SD 8-8; Oakland 6-10. Bring Denver and Indy down a game or two, and those are all about right!)

Monday, January 26, 2015

Andrew, you did NOT just go there....

“The energy is sort of sucked out of you. You do feel deflated … Awwww, shoot. Oh well.”
—Colts quarterback Andrew Luck, describing in a bit of a double-entendre his feelings about the sudden end of the Indianapolis season while being interviewed at the Pro Bowl.

Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Do deflated footballs make any difference? From all angles...

First, the two important elements of this story - 

1) The NFL has indeed learned that eleven of the twelve footballs used in Sunday's game WERE, in fact, significantly BELOW what their inflation should have been.

2) It wouldn't have mattered if the footballs they played with were NERF footballs - New England would have won the game. Let's repeat that: the underinflated balls did NOT cost Indianapolis a trip to the Super Bowl.

So the question becomes, why did it happen? And was somebody trying to gain an advantage? Or help the players out in the colder weather by NOT giving them rock hard footballs to throw, kick, or catch?

Here's the investigation, courtesy of ESPN Boston.

Here's an FAQ about the legal aspects of the situation...

Here's Andrew Sharp's take on it in Grantland...and here's ESPN's Jackie MacMullen's...

AND, to top it all off, there's now a report from CBS Sports that there are Baltimore Ravens players who think the balls may have been deflated in their game as well...

Sunday, January 18, 2015

Indianapolis @ New England live blog...

8:30) So, it's a Patriots/Seahawks Super Bowl 49 (XLIX, traditionalists!). Seattle's an early 2 1/2 point favorite, which jibes with most systems we've seen. More about that in the next two weeks (it's the only game of consequence in the meantime...), but now, let's look one more time at the AFC championship game just concluded...

45-7 is a beat-down. It was nice to see Belechick not only take his starters out late in the game (having Brady get crunched on a sack is a powerful motivator), but give his partner in crime and paduwan Tom Brady a curtain call. He deserved it. If, as it seems, his erstwhile "nemesis" (and friend) Peyton Manning is either done or fading away as a top-line QB, Brady's ascendance to that throne deserves at least that acclimation from his (rain-soaked) home crowd.

Speaking of Brady, he's about to start his sixth Super Bowl, which means he's started about one-eighth of ALL THE SUPER BOWLS EVER. Pretty good considering he wasn't alive for the first third of them... He won his twenty-first playoff game (as did Belechick, setting a record for both quarterback and coach, let alone partnership). To put that in perspective, excluding the Patriots of course, only ten of the other thirty-one teams have ever won that many playoff games in their franchise histories! That's an amazing fourteen year run for a sixth-round QB who subbed for an injured Drew Bledsoe and a cast off coach who failed at Cleveland and started his career doing bedchecks for the Colts and coach Ted Marchibroda in 1975 in Baltimore.

7:10) Haven't had much to say for a while...but that's because New England's just making the game boring for everyone who's not a Pats fan. 31-7, and they're just wearing the Indianapolis defense out, while Andrew's just having no Luck against his opposite side. Don't expect another thrilling ending here - and since it's past nine Boston time, that's just as well for anyone with a bedtime. And the weather's let loose in Foxboro...

So....Seattle/New England. Who ya got?

6:00) Haiku 4...

Laugh when I hear that!
After the score, the F-bomb
Got the mic slammed off!

5:55) Haiku 3...

If the Colts EVER
needed an interception,
THAT was the moment!

5:35) Haiku 2...


Hey, Packer faithful!
See the touchdowns the Pats scored?
THAT'S how it's done, folks!

5:25) Before getting TOO excited, Patriots fans, remember that YOUR team was down an early 14-0 last week. 

Ah, an unbalanced line, eh? You DO realize that the rule ONLY says "seven on the line - only the outside two are eligible receivers", right, Colts? (Right, Ravens?) At FF, we happen to like things like the A-11 formation, similar to the Patriots/Alabama set up, except even stranger, maybe closer to the Oregon Duck extra point formation. Go for it, Belechick....

5:05) Haiku 1...

Touchdown, Patriots.
Though it took a second try,
Blount still ran it in!

4:55) First oops of the game - the punt bounces off Cribbs' face mask (a la Bostick last game) and New England recovers! Wind and rain couldn't have helped.

It's 6:50 pm Eastern, and the game's just starting, thanks to overtime across the country, thanks to the miracle of transcontinental television broadcasts. Take a step back from sports for a moment and respect that for a moment. 


Monday, January 12, 2015

Here are our updated tiers following the divisional round of the NFL playoffs January 10-11:

FF rank Team Div Record WC rnd Current
A1 Seattle Seahawks N-W 13-4 A1 A1
A2 New England Patriots A-E 13-4 A2 A2
A3 Green Bay Packers N-N 13-4 A3 A3
A4 Dallas Cowboys N-E 13-5 A5 A4
B5 Indianapolis Colts A-S 13-5 B6 B5
B6 Denver Broncos A-W 12-5 A4 B6
B7 Baltimore Ravens A-N 11-7 B7 B7
C08 Detroit Lions N-N 11-6 B8 C08
C09 Pittsburgh Steelers A-N 11-6 C09 C09
C10 Cincinnati Bengals A-N 10-6-1 C10 C10
C11 Carolina Panthers N-S 8-9-1 C11 C11
C12 Arizona Cardinals N-W 11-6 C12 C12
 
It's interesting to note that the ONLY time the Denver Broncos were not sitting comfortably inside Tier A was the end of their season, when the Colts exposed them as a second-rate club with an aging or injured quarterback (see our most recent post for more on that topic). The Cowboys and Colts both moved up a slot because of that, but otherwise there was no movement this week in that top twelve.

Now, the Indianapolis Colts travel to Foxboro, Massachusetts, to muster some confidence against a team that toyed with them a couple of months ago - New England has to be at least a touchdown favorite in this game, and undoubtedly Seattle will get similar love against Green Bay from the tipsters in Nevada. There's a reason they earned the home field advantage - they should be the favorites, and frankly if they were the two road teams we would still make them the favorites!

We're not going to put a point spread on these games, except to agree that both teams should be at least a seven point favorite to meet in Arizona on the first of February.

How injured WAS he?

Following the decimation of the Denver Bronco's "mystique" yesterday by the upstart Indianapolis Colts, many observers are saying that Peyton Manning should definitely hang it up now before he degrades any farther. Bill Barnwell and Robert Mays of Grantland certainly think so, and it's hard to look at yesterday's game and find a good rebuttal for them.

But now comes this report, from Adam Schefter of ESPN (whose job it is to find things like this out, and he's legendarily good at his job), that Manning was playing with a torn quad muscle, not only yesterday but for the past month. 

Sunday, January 11, 2015

Congratulations to Indianapolis and Green Bay!

And to Denver and Dallas, for that matter, because all four teams were deserving today! But the difference today was Aaron Rodgers and his amazing performance on one and a half legs, and the performance of the Colts' defense today, restricting the Broncos passing game to dink and dunk without sacrificing all the run defense at the same time.

As for the ridiculous rule that reversed the critical call on fourth down, where Tony Romo connected on a brilliant throw to the equally brilliant Dez Bryant...only to have the "Calvin Johnson" rule invoked and nullify the catch? Well, first of all, given the way the rule reads and has been enforced, the call was indeed both consistent with precedent and correct to the letter of the law. The explanations given on television by Mike Perrera and others were extremely clear, as was the sentiment provided by several talking heads to the effect that the rule sucks. Of COURSE it sucks. It's insipid on the surface, and it defies common sense. 

But what's worse is the same thing that makes the Detroit loss to the Cowboys last week distressing: the ugly nonsensical call will overshadow the great season the teams had. Of course Dallas deserved better, but neither they nor the Packers deserved to lose. Generally, at this stage of the season, NOBODY deserves to lose. It just FELT like they'd accomplished what they were supposed to accomplish on the play and drive. And when you're following the game on Advanced Football Analytics, and the shift in the potential win percentage for Dallas moves from upwards of eighty percent to below twenty...it just didn't seem fair.

Friday, January 9, 2015

Your last look at the NFL Divisional Round games this weekend

The "Elite Eight", the home bye week, the quarterfinals. Whatev, dude... To me, this is the REAL start of the playoffs, growing up in the seventies when each conference only GOT four entrants in the Super Derby (three divisions and one wild card, BTW). The best from each of the NFL's eight divisions stack up Saturday and Sunday, and here's some conjectures as to how the games might go...Remember, as Gregg Easterbrook of TMQ likes to say, All Predictions Wrong Or Your Money Back. (Easterbrook says because the home team with the bye historically wins these games at a MUCH higher rate than normal home field advantage, he ALWAYS recommends taking the home team in this round.) 

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots: The line in Vegas has New England by 7; Jeff Sagarin also says 7. Their respective ESPN bloggers think the margin will be ten or eleven; Sports Illustrated's Don Banks says 27-20, home team; Grantland's Bill Simmons says 20-17 for his beloved Pats; and Nate Silver's 538 calls this a 5.5 point spread. Fox Sports is predicting a New England victory by ghe score of 24-20. Following Football has been following suit, calling this a 7.5 point game, but we highly suspect we'll be off by at LEAST a half point! NOBODY, however, will be shellshocked if 5-0 in the playoffs Joe Flacco goes into Foxboro and moves to 3.5 - 0.5 all time in Massachusetts against Belechick (the one loss was a fluke shanked field goal).

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks: When you send a 7-win "playoff" team coming off a win over a shell of a football club into the raucous home of the defending champions, you get the kind of spreads you see for the late game Saturday. Vegas started at 10 1/2 and went UP to 11; Sagarin said 13 from the get-go. Amazingly, David Newton of ESPN has the Panthers winning 16-14: the cable giant is testing him for hallucinogens as we speak. His blog partnerhas a more appropriate 20-10 score planned. Fox Sports predicts a 26-18 Seattle win; Banks calls it 23-17; Nate Silver lists the spread at eleven; and Bill Simmons is betting his house, forecasting a 30-3 final score. Our numbers predict a more conservative 9.5 point margin, but this is the one game where we'd be GENUINELY shocked to see an upset.

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers: There is an amazingly consistent set of prognostications coming from all corners for the renewal of the Ice Bowl: everyone predicts a home team victory, but nobody doubts that it'll be very close (within a touchdown, guaranteed!). The casino spread started at 6 1/2 and has fallen to 5 1/2 (in the Pack's favor, of course); Sagarin's numbers suggest a spread of just a shade over four points; the two ESPN bloggers for these teams foresee margins of two and four; Silver believes it'll be 2.5; Banks is going 31-27 (a VERY common score prediction); Fox says 26-24; and the official, verified, often-imitated-but-never-duplicated Following Football tier system says it'll be exactly the 5 1/2 point spread Las Vegas predicts, which worries me, because if it IS, there will have to be a scoring play like none other in history. Only Bill Simmons breaks ranks, originally just figuring on the Cowboys beating the spread, and then at the end just throwing up his hands and saying 24-22, Dallas. Good luck, Bill - you'll make Governor Christie a very happy man if you're right!

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos: Set aside the "Manning versus his old team" stuff for a minute and think about what his Colts' biggest drawback was...yep, it wad the lack of a defense. (And a running game, for that matter, but irrelevant...) This time, the fact that the weaker defense wears blue again will be his blessing, not his curse, and we see a six point Broncos victory here at FF. Most prognosticators we're looking at agree: Fox says 28-25 Broncos; Simmons goes with 31-20, Denver; Silver says it'll be about a 5.5 point spread; Banks sees a 34-31 game in the offing. Jeff Sagarin's ratings are placing this as a 4 1/2 spread, while Vegas goes with a full touchdown and extra point. Only one of the two ESPN bloggers dares to predict another one-and-done for Eli and Cooper's middle brother, seeing a 35-31 win on the strength of Andrew Luck, not any weakness in Denver's offense; the other has Peyton winning, 31-22.

Wednesday, January 7, 2015

This weekend's predictions...

As we hit the home stretch, there are just nine games left on the American football calendar - six of which hit this weekend!

The FCS Championship Game is in legendary Frisco, Texas this Saturday, and pits the defending champion North Dakota State Bison (14-1) against the Illinois State Redbirds (13-1). 

Regardless of who wins, Northern Iowa is going to declare themselves the TRUE national champ, as they're the only team who beat BOTH of these combatants!

Vegas doesn't set lines on any college games except the FBS, but the Sagarin board has the Bison as a favorite by about 4 1/2 points. (Both teams would be all the way up into the "receiving votes" category: Illinois State falls in the #41 spot of all 252 division 1 teams (FBS and FCS combined), and NDSU actually ranks #32, above more famous teams like West Virginia, Arizona, Duke, Miami (FL) and Penn State!

Here at Following Football, we're also projecting a repeat for the three-time defenders from Fargo, but the Redbirds will be the stiffest test they've faced (UNI excluded, I suppose, although they weren't expected to be such a challenge). We'll go along with a 4.5 point line.

In the NFL, the two games on the weekend project as home team victories, but "that's why they play the game!", as they drone... New England is a 7 point favorite over Baltimore, according to Vegas and Sagarin; FF has them at about 7.5 points, adding the bye week advantage in as well. As for Seattle and Carolina, Vegas has the 'Hawks at 10.5 up, Sagarin at 13 up, and we list them at 9.5 point favorites. Regardless, it'll be an upset if either of the home teams fail to advance.

Sunday's games hold a bit more interest, although Following Football's biggest betting mantra is that the safest bet in football is the bye-week home team in the Divisional Round. Dallas heads to Green Bay in hopes of breaking that trend, but they're 6.5 point underdogs at the casinos, four-plus point 'dogs on Sagarin, and we have them as 5.5 point deficient. But on all those scales, the Cowboys are still the most likely road team to win this weekend; Dallas is the only road team among the five Tier A teams on our scale. 

Meanwhile, Indianapolis goes to visit its old quarterback again, with Denver a 7 point favorite in Vegas, 4.5 on Sagarin, and a six point favorite with us. The thrill of Peyton Manning going bonkers against his old secondary becomes secondary (b-dm-cha!) to the thrill of the playoffs!

Finally, on Monday night, we get the first College Football Playoff National Championship game, sponsored by everyone on the planet who hated the BCS...don't look past the fact that neither Oregon nor Ohio State would have BEEN here under the BCS system! Certainly Florida State would have been included (defending champ, undefeated), and the top ranked school under durn near EVERY grading system except ours was Alabama. Last year, they would have played for the title, and Ohio State (59-0 winners over Wisconsin), Oregon (51-13 winners against Arizona), TCU (42-3 over Ole Miss), and Baylor (61-58 over TCU!) would have all had reasons to whine. TCU is STILL going to whine, but we're not an advocate of an eight team playoff, frankly. I got bored of the FCS playoffs after the second round - I don't think three rounds of FCS playoffs are a good idea, either. BESIDES, if all you need to do is win your Power Conference, the point of beefing up non-conference schedules goes away. FOUR TEAMS IS FINE.

ANYWAY...the Vegas line on the game is Oregon by six; Sagarin, on the other hand, favors Ohio State by half a point! At FF, we see it as a good game as well: right now, they're teams A1 and A2, which puts them in virtually a dead heat. I see Oregon as a slight favorite (which is why they're in the A1 slot), but I would NOT bet on this game! We'll call it Oregon by 1.

Tuesday, January 6, 2015

Going into the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs,...

...the tiers have been updated below. For obvious reasons, Carolina has made a significant jump upwards, although we resisted shoehorning them into the top eight - they really aren't a top eight team, although given their body of work they're probably not a top twelve team, either. (Seriously...their five game win streak includes three NFC South teams, and games against Cleveland with Manziel at QB and Arizona with the Lord knows who at QB. Don't get too impressed just yet.)

Curiously, all eight divisions are represented in the round of eight! The only division winner to lose (Pittsburgh) lost to a team within its own division. 

Here are the rankings at the eighth pole, as they say on the horse track...

FOLLOWING FOOTBALL - weekly rankings
NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE (including playoffs)
FF rank Team Div week 17 ConfRc DvRec Home Season WC rnd
A1 Seattle Seahawks N-W A1 10-2 5-1 7-1 12-4 A1
A2 New England Patriots A-E A2 9-3 4-2 7-1 12-4 A2
A3 Green Bay Packers N-N A3 9-3 5-1 8-0 12-4 A3
A4 Denver Broncos A-W A4 10-2 6-0 8-0 12-4 A4
A5 Dallas Cowboys N-E A5 8-4 4-2 4-4 13-4 A5
B6 Indianapolis Colts A-S B8 9-3 6-0 6-2 12-5 B6
B7 Baltimore Ravens A-N C10 6-6 3-3 6-2 11-6 B7
B8 Detroit Lions N-N B6 9-3 5-1 7-1 11-6 B8
C09 Pittsburgh Steelers A-N B7 9-3 4-2 6-2 11-6 C09
C10 Cincinnati Bengals A-N C11 7-5 3-3 5-2-1 10-6-1 C10
C11 Carolina Panthers N-S D19 6-6 4-2 4-4 8-8-1 C11
C12 Arizona Cardinals N-W B9 8-4 3-3 7-1 11-6 C12
D13 Philadelphia Eagles N-E C12 6-6 4-2 6-2 10-6 D13
D14 San Diego Chargers A-W D13 6-6 2-4 5-3 9-7 D14
D15 Buffalo Bills A-E D14 5-7 4-2 5-3 9-7 D15
D16 Kansas City Chiefs A-W D15 6-6 3-3 6-2 9-7 D16
D17 Miami Dolphins A-E D16 7-5 3-3 4-4 8-8 D17
D18 San Francisco 49ers N-W D17 7-5 2-4 4-4 8-8 D18
D19 Houston Texans A-S D18 8-4 4-2 5-3 9-7 D19
E20 St. Louis Rams N-W E20 4-8 2-4 3-5 6-10 E20
E21 Cleveland Browns A-N E21 4-8 2-4 4-4 7-9 E21
E22 New Orleans Saints N-S E22 6-6 3-3 3-5 7-9 E22
E23 New York Giants N-E E23 4-8 2-4 3-5 6-10 E23
E24 Minnesota Vikings N-N E24 6-6 1-5 5-3 7-9 E24
F25 Atlanta Falcons N-S F25 6-6 5-1 3-5 6-10 F25
G26 Chicago Bears N-N G26 4-8 1-5 2-6 5-11 G26
G27 Washington Redskins N-E G27 2-10 2-4 3-5 4-12 G27
G28 New York Jets A-E G28 4-8 1-5 2-6 4-12 G28
G29 Oakland Raiders A-W G29 2-10 1-5 3-5 3-13 G29
H30 Jacksonville Jaguars A-S H30 2-10 1-5 3-5 3-13 H30
H31 Tampa Buccaneers N-S H31 1-11 0-6 0-8 2-14 H31
H32 Tennessee Titans A-S H32 2-10 1-5 1-7 2-14 H32

...as with the colleges, a few thoughts:

...The two conferences "homogenized" somewhat as the end of the season arrived - at one point, there was a huge clump of AFC teams in the middle of the rankings, with all of the NFC teams either above (six or seven of them) or below (...yeah...). But as you can probably see, while there is still a block of NFC teams (from #22-27), that clump of AFC in the middle was broken up by the Rams moving up to #20 and the 49ers dropping to #18 in particular.
...the NFC South spread out some as well, with Carolina's advancement and Tampa's continued fall: their "final" rankings were #11*, #22, #25, and #31.
...in fact, the overall total ranking of the AFC South (teams are ranked as #6, 19, 30, and 32) is just about as bad - they total 87, while the NFC South totals 89 (both subject to change as the playoffs advance). 
...at one point, the defending champion Seahawks were ranked below 14th (week 10), only to finish the season as the #1 team going into the knockout round. Good luck to Carolina and whoever else has to go into Seattle...
...conversely, Arizona was ranked #1 as recently as week 11, and Philadelphia and San Diego each spent time in the A tier during the middle of the season. Both of the latter missed the playoffs entirely, and the Cardinals might as well have.
...Again, like the colleges, we will start with this set of tiers when the 2015 season kicks off (modified with the results of the last seven playoff games still to come, of course!). We won't bother with numbers until enough new evidence is in, but there's no point adjusting for free agency and draft picks and "good offseasons" until we see them in actual game action (and rarely does pre-season help that - the teams who go 4-0 in preseason and 4-12 in the regular season are legion.)