Prophecies, part one...

Just for convenience of publishing, here are the predictions for the professionals first...college football will come out later in the day:

Here are our predictions for All Hallow’s Eve weekend of football!

RUGBY) We think the New Zealand All-Blacks will continue their dominance and rout Australia by more than a try (five points). The finals are on NBC this Saturday – check your listings; we don’t remember what time. (And if you’ve never seen the Haka, tune in early just for that!)

NFL) For some reason, we think it’s a boring weekend in the National!....Football!...LEAGUE! Out of the fourteen games on the slate for week eight, we see twelve of them as the favorite beating the spread:

New England (-8) over the Jets; Kansas City (-4.5) over the Lions; Atlanta (-7.5) over Tampa; Baltimore (-3) over the Chargers; Minnesota (-1) over Da Bears; Arizona (-5) over the Browns; Houston (-4) over the Titans [this one makes us uncomfortable, though, because of both teams’ QB situations]; New Orleans (-3.5) over the Giants [this one also took a long time…]; the New York Jets (-2) over the Raiders; Seattle (-6) over the QB-less (and rudderless) Cowboys; Green Bay (-3) over Denver [wanted to take Denver, and all our metrics say to…but Aaron Rogers, man…]; and Carolina (-7) over the listing Colts.

The only two underdogs we’re going with this weekend are San Francisco (+8.5) against the Rams [it’s just too high a spread], and we like Pittsburgh (+1.5) to beat Cincinnati outright at home this weekend, as much as we like the Bengals. Call it the 6-0 jinx – we don’t see any of the others losing (except Denver or Green Bay to each other, which is required), and it’s hard to see four 7-0 teams moving forward. Pittsburgh with Landry Jones has a functional offense, and the Bengals have a down game coming…

CFL) Two weeks left! Playoff spots and positions are on the line! Here are the standings as we speak…

CANADIAN FOOTBALL LEAGUE 2015						Week 18			FF Elo-style
Western Team	W	L	PpG	PF	PA	Avg PF	Avg PA	P +/-	RATING	FF rank
Edmonton	13	4	1.53	426	319	25.1	18.8	107	36.4	2
Calgary	12	4	1.50	408	320	25.5	20.0	88	38.4	1 (-2)
BC Lions	6	10	0.75	403	433	25.2	27.1	-30	32.7	4 (-1)
Winnipeg	5	12	0.59	342	481	20.1	28.3	-139	23.6	8
Saskatchewan	2	14	0.25	381	497	23.8	31.1	-116	23.1	9
Eastern Team	W	L	PpG	PF	PA	APF	APA	P +/-	RATING	FF rank
Hamilton	10	6	1.25	496	335	31.0	20.9	161	35.0	3 (+2)
Ottawa	10	6	1.25	408	420	25.5	26.3	-12	27.4	6
Toronto	9	7	1.13	392	461	24.5	28.8	-69	24.3	7 (+3)
Montreal	6	10	0.75	342	332	21.4	20.8	10	29.9	5 (-2)

Hamilton and Ottawa happen to have their two remaining games with each other on back to back weeks, starting this Sunday in Hamilton and concluding in Ottawa on Saturday the 7^th. Meanwhile, Toronto gets two home games to end the year, against BC this Friday and Winnipeg next Friday, but to place first they have to depend on Ottawa and Hamilton tying both of their games! (The CFL computers give them a one-in-ten-thousand chance. Not sure how they figure it.) For the Ti-Cats and RedBlacks, it comes down to the head-to-head; Hamilton owns the tie breaker in a three-way tie; if Toronto falls by the wayside, it becomes a soccer playoff scoring – point differential in two games.

Meanwhile, Edmonton plays its last game of the season on Sunday, and if they win against 6-10 Montreal, they clinch the division. If they lose, Calgary’s got to win both this Saturday at home against poor Saskatchewan, and next Saturday in Vancouver.

There are three playoff spots in each division – the first place gets a bye, which is all-important, and hosts the winner of the third-at-second place game the week before. So, Hamilton, Ottawa, and Toronto are in for the East, while in the West it’ll be Edmonton, Calgary, and either BC or Montreal, who would get in using what they call the “crossover” rule – if a fourth place team is better than the other third place team, they steal that playoff spot! MY FAVORITE PLAYOFF RULE! Last year, it worked the other way: BC stole a spot in the East. So why not root for Montreal to steal the West spot this time? Basically, though, BC owns the tiebreaker, so Montreal must win more of their two remaining games (@ Edmonton and home v Saskatchewan) than British Columbia does (@ Toronto and v Calgary). Very possible. It’s also conceivable that Winnipeg steals the spot, but they’d have to win at Toronto next Friday and have Montreal and BC lose both games. Good luck, Blue Bombers.

Our Picks This Week) Toronto over BC, 28-20…Calgary routs the RoughRiders, 41-19… Hamilton edges Ottawa at home, 33-27…Edmonton clinches by beating Montreal, 31-13.

Thursday Thoughts: The RUGBY WORLD CUP 2015 has finally arrived!

After months of build up, it's time for the World Cup - we spent some time and posts discussing RWC 2015 in the first incarnation of Following Football, mostly because of its close kinship to all four brands of football that we normally cover, but we haven't talked about it much in the last month or so...

But Friday, match one features England and Fiji in the 'pool of death' (every such tournament has one, it seems!), and then Saturday features four different opening round matches all over England: the full schedule is here.

We have no particular idea as to who's in form, who the favorite should be, although here at Following Football, we tend to follow the All Blacks from New Zealand and root for them; the Australian Wallabies are also a blog favorite, and of course whenever the United States or Canada is in the mix, we're paying attention as well. But here's the ESPN expert predictions - remarkably, the majority of them see France as a team that will either make a surprising run into the semi finals OR self-destruct colorfully and dramatically.

Women's World Cup Soccer!

We haven't kept a close enough eye on the events in the World Cup of women's futbol, but as the round of sixteen concludes, let's review the tournament so far...

Group A saw a cluster at the top which allowed three teams through thanks to three ties with the three decisions. Canada won with five points (1-0-2), and China and the Netherlands also advanced, leaving New Zealand behind.

Group B saw 2-0-1 records from both Germany and Norway, eliminating upstarts Thailand and the Ivory Coast. 

Group C was dominated by the Japanese women, who won all three matches, and Switzerland and Cameroon also advanced, eliminating Ecuador.

Group D: the United States went undefeated, going 2-0-1 with a tie against Sweden (who tied everybody - 0-0-3!), dragging Australia in as well as the Swedes. Only 0-2- Nigeria stayed behind. 

Group E saw Brazil's Marta set an all-time goal scoring record, and the ladies of the beautiful sport started their redemption tour for the men's debacle by going 3-0-0 in the round-robin round. South Korea placed second with a record of 1-1-1. Spain was winless, tying only Costa Rica, who also tied the Koreans but never won a game.

Finally, Group F was led by channel neighbors France and England, followed into the knockout round by 1-1-1 Columbia. Only Mexico was sent home.

Now in the Round of Sixteen, no major surprises presented themselves:
China def. Cameroon 1-0
United States beat Columbia 2-0
Germany def. Sweden 4-1
France won over South Korea, 3-0
Australia did upset the Brazilians, 1-0. So, there goes the revenge for the men's debacle.
Japan outlasted the Netherlands, 2-1
England beat Norway 2-1.
Canada, the host country, continued on by beating Switzerland 1-0.

So, the quarterfinals begin on Friday, when Germany takes on France, and then China faces the United States (so, a replay of WW2, followed by a preview of WW3!). Winners play each other on Tuesday.

On Saturday, the other two quarters take place, with a spot in Wednesday's second semi on the line: Australia v. Japan, and England v. Canada. The finals will be next weekend - third place game on Saturday, July 4th, championship on Sunday, July 5th. No predictions from us - we don't know anywhere NEAR enough about these teams!