Weekend Wesults (a day late - switched with UAD this week!)

Thanks for your patience with us flip-flopping these articles this week - with all the coaching changes (and more coming! Amazing!), we wanted to get our two cents - or rather, our two senses - in as quickly as we could! Besides, both the NFL and CFL had thrilling Monday night games to wait for the conclusion of... Anyway - on to our results!

So, our Canadian Football League predictions: Toronto over Ottawa (28-23) from last Tuesday; Hamilton over Saskatchewan (34-20)…Calgary holds off Edmonton (holding our breath on this one – 30-27)…BC to defeat Winnipeg (in Vancouver, not a stretch: 20-14)…and Montreal catches Toronto on six days rest (28-27, despite the Argos being favored otherwise). OOPS!

Results? 2-3 straight up (got the first two right), 4-1 against the spread (missed the last one). OVERALL, 37-28 straight up, 37-26-3 ATS.

Next, our National Football League predictions: Houston (+0.5) upsets Indianapolis Thursday night…on Sunday, Atlanta (-8) covers against Washington…Cincinnati (-3) covers against Seattle…Green Bay (-9.5) covers against the Rams…Philadelphia (-4.5) covers against New Orleans…and Buffalo (-2.5) covers at Tennessee. On the flip side of that coin, Cleveland (+6.5) beats the spread against the Ravens…Chicago (+9.5) stays close to the Chiefs…and Jacksonville (+2.5) at least covers against Tampa. In the late games Sunday, Arizona (-3), New England (-9.5), Denver (-5.5), and the Giants (-7) all win by more than those spreads against Detroit, Dallas, Oakland, and San Francisco, respectively. Finally, on Monday night, Pittsburgh (+3) upsets San Diego.

Results? Nailed 8 out of 14 completely (Green Bay, Philly, Cleveland, Chicago, Arizona, New England, Denver, and Pittsburgh, thanks to the wildcat Deveon Bell!); also picked winners Atlanta, Cincinnati, Buffalo, and the Giants; only missed two games completely – Houston lost to Indy, and Tampa covered against Jacksonville. So, 8-6 against the spread, 12-2 winners. OVERALL, we’re 52-24; against the spread we’re 49-27.

With our college picks, there are so MANY that it’s too time consuming to list all the wins and losses we went through, but let’s give you the overall breakdown…

There was a large group of games where we felt that the favorite would not only win but cover the Vegas spread… Of those 38 games, we went 19-19 regarding that particular call against the spread, and seven of those 38 actually lost their games (so we were 31-7 with those straight up).

Then, we had a list of 17 games where we thought the underdog would at least beat the spread and (in some cases) win outright:

Within that group, we correctly called four upsets (out of five predictions – VERY nice!) – Wisconsin over Nebraska, U Conn over UCF, Rice over Florida Atlantic, and San Diego St over Hawaii. Overall in this group, we nailed 16 out of 17 winners (16-1!) and went 9-8 against the spread.

Finally, we predicted margins of victory for all 54 FCS games last weekend, and nailed a couple right on the number: Bethune-Cookman Thursday night over SC State, 17-14, and Western Carolina over Mercer by three as well.  Overall, we got 38 winners (don’t know how pleased we are with a 38-16 record on this…), and there were 20 of those games in which we got within ten points of the actual score, which actually is pretty good! Some of the games, though, really caught us by surprise – Rhode Island shutting someone out? (20-0 over Delaware!) UC Davis winning and Montana losing? Maine and Richmond beating Albany and Elon surprised us, Central Connecticut beating ANYONE surprised us (35-33 over Bryant), and the Big South (where we PROMISED no upsets!) saw lowly Gardner-Webb upset a Liberty team we had picked by 19!

So, on the whole, our college football predictions looked like this for Week 5: Straight up, we went 85-24 all across the board this weekend (47-8 in the FBS alone), and against the Vegas spread, which is just for FBS games, we went a pedestrian 28-27. For the season, we are 448-117 overall and 240-215 ATS, with 2 pushes. That’s down to 79% straight up and still at 53% against the spread. Not as impressive as the rest of our body of work this year!

As for our competition success, in our NFL “Pigskin Pick’em”, we are in the top 10% out of 500,000 entries in the straight up competition, and in the top 1% (in fact, the top thousand entries) in the competition against the spread!

For the college pick’em game, as you might expect from our struggles above, we’re not nearly as high, although we ARE in the top third of the 250,000 entries at 68+%! So, room to improve!

(And don’t forget that we ended the AFL season in the top 1% for finals and 5% for the season!)

Finally, for the Canadian Football League “Pick’em” prediction contest, we’re still in the top fifth, continuing to sit right around #2000-#2500 out of 14,000 (somewhere between 80-85%, depending on how we do that week)!

So, we may not be perfect, but we’re WAY better than average on all fronts!

And - what about the four "Football Championship" schools who don't DO championships?

Regardless of the name, four of the twelve "FCS" schools do NOT participate in the championship playoffs - the Ivy League and Patriot League (both filled with top academic schools with - ahem - better things to do), and the MEAC and SWAC, the two "historically black colleges", or HBCs, which this season have decided to hold their own private championship, the "Celebration Bowl", which will (we suppose) unofficially crown the top HBC of the season.

So, let's look a little closer!

The Ivy League:
Of course, Harvard is the traditional power in the Ivy League, and comes into 2015 as the favorite again, with Yale and Dartmouth the only two teams with realistic aspirations to dethrone the two-time titlists. Brown, Princeton, and Penn will fill the center slots, while the Columbia/Cornell matchup (hysterical last year) once again will decide which team goes 1-9 and which goes 0-10. (We'll take Columbia to lose again.) 

The Patriot League:
Fordham has the same kind of stranglehold on the Patriot that Harvard does in the Ivy; their chasers include Bucknell and Lafayette, with Holy Cross and Colgate right behind, and Lehigh hanging on to their tails. Georgetown is the bottom of the ladder, but not as poor as Columbia or Cornell. 

So, our top four in the "Football Intramural Subdivision" will be Harvard, Fordham, Dartmouth and Yale for starters; and our "Bottom Three" would be Columbia, Cornell, and Georgetown. For what it's worth.

Meanwhile, in the Historically Black College conferences,

The MEAC:
...is a three-way fight between defending champ North Carolina A&T, South Carolina St, and Bethune-Cookman, and a one-loss, three-way tie is almost expected. Right behind them are North Carolina Central and Morgan St, vying for 4th and 5th. Then there's a gap to Hampton, Norfolk St, Howard, and Florida A&M, four schools with famous bands that almost make up for their teams! Pulling up the rear will be Delaware St and legendary Savannah St, seen most recently playing a running-clock game at Florida St because the rout was THAT BAD.

The SWAC:
In two divisions, there's a separation between the best team (Alcorn St) in the East, and the two most famous teams (Southern and Grambling St) in the West. Alcorn is only threatened by Alabama St, with three others trailing far behind: Alabama A&T, Jackson St, and Mississippi Valley St. In the West, Southern and Grambling are closely followed by Prairie View A&M, with a gap back to Texas-Southern and Arkansas-Pine Bluff.

So, our top four in the "HBC Subdivision" will be Alcorn St, North Carolina A&T, South Carolina St, and Bethune-Cookman to start the season; while our "Bottom Three" start as Savannah St, Delaware St, and Mississippi Valley St.