Showing posts with label LSU. Show all posts
Showing posts with label LSU. Show all posts

Sunday, November 8, 2015

College football rankings following Week 10 - FBS

Here are the updated Following Football ACNC tiers and rankings for the FBS teams following the games of November 3-7...Alabama takes over the #1 spot, despite their early season loss to Mississippi State - and if that's a problem for you, ask yourself what the betting odds would look like were they to play any of the undefeated teams on a neutral field! (They were 6 1/2 point favorites against #1 LSU Saturday - and justified it in spades!). In fact, three of our four playoff teams have a loss, but more important is how you're playing NOW. Big movers include OU, moving up from #9; Stanford (#11 to #5), North Carolina (from #28 to #21); falling somewhat were LSU (just to #7) and TCU (to #13).

Notice that we've now ranked ALL 128 teams, all the way down to our Bottom Eight, with Eastern Michigan at the very bottom, losing to almost-equally pathetic Miami of Ohio.


FF tier Team Conf CfRec OvRec
A1 Alabama secW 5 1 8 1
A2 Clemson accA 6 0 9 0
A3 Notre Dame ind
  8 1
A4 Oklahoma b12 5 1 8 1
B5 Stanford pacN 7 0 8 1
B6 Ohio St b10e 5 0 9 0
B7 LSU secW 4 1 7 1
B8 Oklahoma St b12 6 0 9 0
B9 Baylor b12 5 0 8 0
C10 Mississippi St secW 3 2 7 2
C11 Iowa b10w 5 0 9 0
C12 Florida secE 6 1 8 1
C13 TCU b12 5 1 8 1
C14 Utah pacS 5 1 8 1
C15 Michigan b10e 4 1 7 2
D16 Michigan St b10e 4 1 8 1
D17 UCLA pacS 4 2 7 2
D18 Ole Miss secW 4 2 7 3
D19 Temple aacE 5 0 8 1
D20 Georgia secE 4 3 6 3
E21 North Carolina accC 5 0 8 1
E22 Houston aacW 5 0 9 0
E23 Florida St accA 5 2 7 2
E24 Auburn secW 2 4 5 4
E25 Texas A&M secW 3 3 6 3
E26 Navy aacW 5 0 7 1
E27 Wisconsin b10w 5 1 8 2
F28 Memphis aacW 4 1 8 1
F29 USC pacS 4 2 6 3
F30 Toledo macW 4 1 7 1
F31 BYU ind
  7 2
G32 North Carolina St accA 2 3 6 3
G33 Arkansas secW 3 2 5 4
G34 Oregon pacN 4 2 6 3
G35 Boise St mwM 4 1 7 2
G36 Northwestern b10w 3 2 7 2
G37 Tennessee secE 3 3 5 4
G38 Northern Illinois macW 4 1 6 3
G39 Washington pacN 2 4 4 5
G40 Virginia Tech accC 2 3 4 5
G41 Western Kentucky cusaE 6 0 8 2
G42 Bowling Green macE 5 0 7 2
G43 Duke accC 3 2 6 3
H44 Pitt accC 4 1 6 3
H45 Louisville accA 4 2 5 4
H46 West Virginia b12 1 4 4 4
H47 Louisiana Tech cusaW 5 1 7 3
H48 California pacN 2 4 5 4
H49 Appalachian St sun 4 1 7 2
H50 Miami-FL accC 3 2 6 3
I51 Washington St pacN 4 2 6 3
I52 Georgia Tech accC 1 5 3 6
I53 Minnesota b10w 1 4 4 5
I54 Cincinnati aacE 2 3 5 4
I55 Penn St b10e 4 2 7 3
I56 Vanderbilt secE 1 4 3 6
I57 Kansas St b12 0 5 3 5
I58 Arizona St pacS 2 4 4 5
I59 Missouri secE 1 5 4 5
J60 Kentucky secE 2 5 4 5
J61 Texas b12 3 3 4 5
J62 Western Michigan macW 5 0 5 3
J63 Texas Tech b12 2 5 5 5
J64 Arizona pacS 2 5 5 5
J65 San Diego St mwW 5 0 6 3
J66 South Carolina secE 1 6 3 6
J67 Nebraska b10w 2 4 4 6
K68 Arkansas St sun 5 0 6 3
K69 Illinois b10w 2 3 5 4
K70 Indiana b10e 0 5 4 5
K71 Central Michigan macW 4 1 5 4
K72 Air Force mwM 4 1 6 3
K73 South Florida aacE 3 2 5 4
K74 Boston College accA 0 7 3 7
L75 East Carolina aacE 2 4 4 6
L76 Georgia Southern sun 4 1 6 2
L77 Iowa St b12 2 4 3 6
L78 Marshall cusaE 5 1 8 2
L79 Southern Miss cusaW 4 1 6 3
L80 U Conn aacE 3 3 5 5
L81 Utah St mwM 4 2 5 4
M82 Middle Tennessee cusaE 3 2 4 5
M83 Virginia accC 2 3 3 6
N84 Purdue b10w 1 4 2 7
N85 Akron macE 2 3 4 5
N86 Syracuse accA 1 4 3 6
N87 Wake Forest accA 1 5 3 6
N88 Tulsa aacW 2 3 5 4
N89 Colorado pacS 1 5 4 6
O90 Maryland b10e 0 5 2 7
O91 Rutgers b10e 1 5 3 6
O92 Ohio macE 2 3 5 4
O93 Nevada mwW 3 2 5 4
O94 Buffalo macE 3 2 5 4
O95 Colorado St mwM 2 3 4 5
P96 UNLV mwW 2 3 3 6
P97 San Jose St mwW 3 2 4 5
P98 Oregon St pacN 0 6 2 7
Q099 New Mexico mwM 3 2 5 4
Q100 Troy sun 2 3 3 6
Q101 UL-Lafayette sun 3 1 4 4
Q102 Rice cusaW 2 3 4 5
Q103 Florida International cusaE 3 3 5 5
Q104 SMU aacW 0 5 1 8
R105 Tulane aacW 1 5 2 7
R106 Ball St macW 2 4 3 7
R107 Florida Atlantic cusaE 2 4 2 7
S108 Idaho sun 2 4 3 6
S109 Kent St macE 2 3 3 6
S110 Hawai'i mwW 0 6 2 8
S111 New Mexico St sun 2 3 2 7
T112 Texas St sun 1 3 2 6
T113 South Alabama sun 2 2 4 4
T114 Old Dominion cusaE 2 3 4 5
T115 Fresno St mwW 1 5 2 7
T116 U Massachusetts macE 0 5 1 8
U117 Kansas b12 0 6 0 9
U118 Wyoming mwM 1 5 1 9
U119 Army ind
  2 7
U120 UTEP cusaW 2 3 4 5
U121 Miami-OH macE 1 5 2 8
U122 North Texas cusaW 1 5 1 8
U123 UT-San Antonio cusaW 1 4 1 8
V124 Georgia St sun 1 3 2 6
V125 UNC-Charlotte cusaE 0 6 2 7
V126 Central Florida aacE 0 6 0 10
V127 UL-Monroe sun 0 5 1 8
W128 Eastern Michigan macW 0 6 1 9 

Tuesday, November 3, 2015

UPS and DOWNS for Tuesday, the first week of November!

As the college football playoff committee puts out its rankings tonight, and Following Football has done the same over the last two days for all 285 pro and college teams we cover, it's a great time to look at which teams have had a surprisingly UP season, and which ones have been startlingly DOWN...

WHO'S UP? Well, what about the Cincinnati Bengals and the Carolina Panthers? Everyone who saw both of them at 7-0 starting November raise your hands. OK, we've identified the liars in the room...

WHO'S DOWN? It's not hard to find struggling teams in the NFL, but a couple we saw in the playoffs last year are the Baltimore Ravens and the Detroit Lions. Tough schedule, sure - close games, yes - but somewhere in there, you've got to stand up and win a couple of those games.

WHO'S UP? Three "usual suspects": the Green Bay Packers, the Denver Broncos, and the New England Patriots. Remarkable to watch Peyton be Peyton again, but Rodgers and Brady have left no doubt that they're still at the top of their games. And all three have defenses to get them the ball.

WHO'S DOWN? Again, who do you expect? The Tennessee Titans, of course, who just fired another coach...the Cleveland Browns, who continue to put up with Manziel for some odd reason...the Chicago Bears weren't expected to do much, and still haven't lived up to expectations... and even with their shiny new QB, the Tampa Bay Bucs are barely better than they were at this point last year.

WHO'S UP? There are signs of life in Oakland...in Minnesota...in Atlanta...in St. Louis. Parity is always the stated goal of the NFL admin, but what you really want is the feeling as a fan base that any year could be THE YEAR!

WHO'S DOWN? When you've got a fan base like the Sasktachewan RoughRiders do, arguably the best in the Canadian Football League, and you were expecting to be contending for the Grey Cup, when you were right on the heels of the eventual champion Calgary Stampeders all season...and you go a miserable two and fifteen heading into the final week of the season...yeah, the green is blue this year. The Riders were actually eliminated from playoff contention six weeks ago...in a league where 2/3 of the teams make the playoffs. THAT'S impressive in its badness.

WHO'S UP? When you went 2-16 last year in your first campaign as an expansion franchise, you can be forgiven if a successful second season in your mind was, say, six wins. Looking at the two expansion clubs in the AFL (Gold Coast and GWS), they went through about that - two bad years, then two mediocre years. But instead, the Ottawa RedBlacks are one win away from an Eastern Division championship in their second year - already guaranteed a winning record at 11-6, all they need to do is win OR not lose by more than five points at home on Saturday to the Hamilton Ti-Cats...not the first choice of opponents in this situation, especially since it's the Ti-Cats who will earn the title if you fail. But just to have this opportunity in your sophomore campaign! CONGRATULATIONS, OTTAWA!

WHO'S DOWN? My attention span for Canadian football once the American season hit full steam in late September. It was frustrating, because I knew I didn't have the time or energy to stay abreast of every single thing in the NFL, NCAA, and the CFL - and as the footy season was reaching its climax down under, it was the mid-to-late weeks of the Canadian season that got the short shrift. To our readers, I apologize. But of course, all we can do is our best, and we'll continue to do that for you.

WHO'S UP? At the moment, we have our top four "theoretically playoff bound" FBS teams (in the humble opinion of Following Football ACNC!) - LSU, Clemson, Alabama, Notre Dame. To most observers we've heard, the first two names are almost indisputable at the moment (things change quickly in college football, though!), and the other two could be replaced by any of close to a dozen teams: TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Michigan St, Ohio St, Florida, Stanford, Iowa, Utah, even Memphis or Toledo. (Probably not Idaho, though.)

WHO'S DOWN? Which teams thought they'd be in the mix at this point and aren't? There are some obvious candidates: Georgia, Auburn, Oregon, USC, Tennessee, There are some others whose fan bases might have thought it feasible - but that's another story.

WHO'S UP? There are some remarkable positive stories this fall of teams who weren't expected to fare as successfully as they have, as there are every year. That doesn't make them any less worth applauding: Florida (new head coach Jim McElwain has them sitting at #7 on the Following Football ranking at the moment; finished the 2014 season at #34), Michigan (Harbaugh took a team who finished at #67 last year, bottom half of the FBS, and has them at #14 right now), Houston (up from #69 last year to an undefeated 8-0 at #21 and looking at a possible New Year's bowl); and Temple (similar story arc, moving from #79 to current #22, having just taken Notre Dame to the brink). There are lower eschelon stories as well: Southern Miss moved from tier S up to its current tier L; Tulsa has bounded from tier T up to tier N this year. Vanderbilt from tier R up to its present place in tier I; and Northwestern, who beat Stanford to start the year, Duke for its only legitimate defeat (ahem, Miami), and moved from last year's tier M and #78 all the way into tier G and position #35.

WHO'S DOWN? And then... there are the sob stories. The ones you tsk tsk about behind their backs. The ones who (in your opinion) deserve a bad year every once in a while... How about Texas? Charlie Strong's first year looked promising! But with a blowout, embarrassing loss to Notre Dame (well, ok), embarrassing near-misses against California and OK State (hmmm...), a bad loss at TCU (eww...), a surprise win in the Shootout (hey! Maybe...) followed by definitive losses to two foes they used to pick their teeth with the last two weeks: K-State and Iowa State. Read that again. Iowa State! The Texas offense was not only shut out, they never got past the ISU 40 yard line.

But that pales next to Nebraska, who fired a coach who gave them nine wins a season every year - AGAIN. A decade ago, they fired Frank Solich because he wasn't Tom Osborne. The man they hired to replace him...was no Frank Solich. Disaster - they didn't even make .500! In desperation, they brought in NU guy Bo Pelini - colorful, successful, nine wins a season, just like Solich (who went on to be one of the most successful coaches in MAC history). Seven years of Pelini NOT being Tom Osborne was enough for the faithful, and they brought in Mike Riley, a very nice man with a mediocre program at Oregon State, who has produced a mediocre program at Nebraska, finding exciting ways to lose close games to good teams and sometimes to bad teams like Purdue last weekend.

South Carolina was doing badly enough that the Head Ball Coach simply walked away into retirement. Central Florida saw the same story with Head Resume Inflator in the lead walking role. Whether the story ends the same way at Virginia Tech in Frank Beamer's last year remains to be seen. It looks like Minnesota's going to be hanged if they allow Jerry Kill's epilepsy-induced retirement to end the same way, thankfully.

WHAT'S NEXT? Who knows? And isn't that the beauty of football? It's the best reality show there is - all the drama, the competition, the tension of the staged TV events, except it's actual reality! There IS no script! Maybe Texas turns it around! Maybe Florida nosedives the rest of the way! Maybe Jim Harbaugh takes Michigan to four miraculous victories against Ohio State, Iowa in the B1G title game, the semifinal and the NC game, and the Blue rule the nation! Or...just as unlikely...maybe they lose every game from here on out, including a 59-0 shutout by the Buckeyes. That's the point - we can't know ahead of time! So sit back, turn on the TV, go to a game if you're close enough, and enjoy the ride!

Sunday, November 1, 2015

Our first rankings, ahead of the CFP committee's Tuesday:

It's time to start breaking down our tiers into rankings, as the NCAA College Football Playoff committee prepares for ITS first rankings on Tuesday evening. Here are our top 35 FBS teams after Week 9 of the 2015 season:

Tier A) 1. LSU (7-0). 2. Clemson (8-0). 3. Alabama (7-1). 4. Notre Dame (7-1). 5. TCU (7-0).
Tier B) 6. Michigan St (8-0). 7. Florida (7-1). 8. Ohio St (8-0).  9. Oklahoma (7-1). 10. Baylor (8-0). 11. Stanford (7-1).
Tier C) 12. Iowa (8-0). 13. Ole Miss (7-2). 14. Michigan (6-2). 15. Texas A&M (6-2). 16. Utah (7-1). 17. Mississippi St (6-2).
Tier D) 18. Oklahoma St (8-0). 19. Memphis (8-0). 20. Toledo (7-0). 21. Houston (8-0). 22. Temple (7-1).
Tier E) 23. UCLA (6-2). 24. Florida St (7-1). 25. BYU (6-2). 26. Wisconsin (7-2). 27. Georgia (5-3).
Tier F) 28. North Carolina (7-1). 29. USC (5-3). 30. Appalachian St (7-1). 31. Duke (6-2).
Tier G) 32. Tennessee (4-4). 33. Navy (6-1). 34. Boise St (7-2). 35. Northwestern (7-2). 36. California (5-3). 37. Auburn (4-4).

Tier H) Pitt, Miami-Fl, West Virginia, Oregon, Arizona St, Arkansas, Louisiana Tech, Bowling Green.
Tier I) Georgia Tech, Minnesota, Kansas St, Kentucky, Missouri, Northern Illinois.
Tier J) Texas Tech, Washington St, Arizona, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Cincinnati, Marshall, San Diego St.
Tier K) Boston College, Indiana, Iowa St, Texas, East Carolina, Central Michigan, Western Michigan, Air Force, Utah St.
Tier L) Purdue, Nebraska, South Florida, U Conn, Southern Miss, Georgia Southern.
Tier M) Syracuse, Virginia, Illinois, Arkansas St.
Tier N) Wake Forest, Colorado, Tulsa, Ohio, Akron.
Tier O) Rutgers, Maryland, Oregon St, Middle Tennessee, Buffalo.
Tier P) Rice, Colorado St, Nevada, UNLV.
Tier Q) SMU, FIU, Ball St, San Jose St, UL-Lafayette.
Tier R) Tulane, FAU, New Mexico, Texas St, Troy.
Tier S) Kent St, Idaho, Hawaii, Fresno St.

And the Bottom Sixteen...

Tier T) 113. U Mass (1-7). 114. Kansas (0-8). 115. South Alabama (3-4). 116. Old Dominion (3-5). 117. Wyoming (1-8).
Tier U) 118. Army-West Point (2-6). 119. UT-San Antonio (1-7). 120. New Mexico St (1-7). 121. North Texas (1-7). 122. UL-Monroe (1-7).
Tier V) 123. Miami-OH (1-8). 124. UTEP (3-5). 125. Georgia St (2-5). 126. Charlotte (2-6). 127. Eastern Michigan (1-8). 128. Central Florida (0-9).

As for Top Eights, the Power Five conferences hold the first eight spots above, while the Top Eight for the Group Of Five conferences (pivotal for bowl placement) are as follows right now:
1. Memphis (#19) - 2. Toledo (#20) - 3. Houston (#21) - 4. Temple (#22) - 5. BYU (#25) - 6. Appalachian St (#30) - 7. Navy (#33) - 8. Boise St (#34). 

And the Bottom Fives? Well, all of Tier V comes from the Group Of Five conferences, so there's your bottom five there (UTEP through UCF). As for the Power Five conferences, here are their Bottom Five:
1. Kansas (tier T) - 2. Maryland (tier O) - 3. Rutgers (tier O) - 4. Oregon St (tier O) - 5. Wake Forest (tier N). 

Rankings for the FCS teams and the NFL will come out in the next 24 hours or so...

Saturday, January 3, 2015

It's college bowl season - continued!

Here's week two of the FBS bowl season, from Dec 27 onwards (see our previous post for the first week's predictions), from ESPN, Sagarin, Vegas, and Following Football:

Dec 27                                           ESPN                  Sagarin                  Vegas           Following F
Cincinnati v Virginia Tech:       Cinc by 6           Cinc by 0.2           Cinc by 3         Cinc by 6
Duke v Arizona St:                      ASU by 4        ASU by 6.6        ASU by 7.5    ASU by 4
Miami-FL v South Carolina:     Mia by 7            SC by 0.3            Mia by 3           SC by 1
Boston College v Penn St           PSU by 3          BC by 3                  BC by 2.5         BC by 2
Nebraska v USC:                         USC by 11        USC by 2.1         USC by 6.5   USC by 1

Dec 29
Texas A&M v West Virginia      A&M by 1         A&M by 2.0     WV by 3.5        A&M by 2
Oklahoma v Clemson:                OU by 11             OU by 5.6             OU by 3           OU by 1/2
Arkansas v Texas:                       Ark by 7           Ark by 12.4       Ark by 6        Ark by 1

Dec 30
Notre Dame v LSU:                     LSU by 3            LSU by 12.7         LSU by 7          LSU by 5
Georgia v Louisville:                   Lou by 4             UGA by 11.5     UGA by 6.5   UGA by 3
Maryland v Stanford:                 Stan by 14      Stan by 11.2      Stan by 14     Stan by 6

Dec 31
Ole Miss v TCU:                           TCU by 3         TCU by 1.4        TCU by 3       TCU by 2
Boise St v Arizona:                      Ariz by 3            Ariz by 5.2            Ariz by 3.5       Ariz by 4.5
Mississippi St v Georgia Tech:  GT by 4           MSU by 10.2        MSU by 6.5     MSU by 1

Jan 1
Auburn v Wisconsin:                  Aub by 7            Aub by 10.3          Aub by 6.5       Aub by 2
Michigan St v Baylor:                Bay by 7            Bay by 4.6             Bay by 3           Bay by 3.5
Missouri v Minnesota:               Mizz by 4       Mizz by 6.4        Mizz by 5      Mizz by 2.5
Florida St v Oregon:                   Ore by 11        Ore by 9.7          Ore by 9        Ore by 3
Ohio St v Alabama:                     Ala by 7             Ala by 4.3               Ala by 9.5       Ala by 3
  Jan 2
Pitt v Houston:                              Pitt by 4           Pitt by 3.1             Pitt by 3            Pitt by 1
Iowa v Tennessee:                        Tenn by 11    Tenn by 6.3      Tenn by 3.5   Tenn by 3
Kansas St v UCLA:                       KSU by 3          KSU by 5              KSU by 3           KSU by 2
Washington v Oklahoma St:      UW by 14         UW by 5               UW by 5.5         UW by 7

Jan 3
East Carolina v Florida:             ECU by 4          Fla by 13.6        Fla by 7           Fla by 4

Jan 4
Toledo v Arkansas St:                 Toledo by 4       ArkSt by 0.3    Toledo by 3   Toledo by 1

Now, if the predictions hold true, we'll be previewing the Oregon/Alabama national championship game on January 12th in the new year. And remember, not only will we be tallying our Following Football predictions compared to that of the casinos, but also running a pure count of how many games each of the four predictors does forecasting 39 games where the teams have had a month to both rust and prepare.

Tuesday, November 25, 2014

College predictions for Week 13!

Like we whined about with the pro schedule (our "whine" which was really a praise, of course!), we've been able to refine our tiers to the point where our tier-based predictions barely differ from the casino lines or from the Sagarin point spreads. We'll review some of the major contests coming up this Thanksgiving weekend, along with the games where we actually have some differing forecasts to consider...

Games of the highest interest:

Thursday - TCU @ Texas - The Horned Frogs are favored by anywhere from 6 1/2 to 9 points, but with the surging Longhorns looking for a pelt to prove they're on the road back, our instincts are telling us TCU's in trouble.

Friday - Arkansas @ Missouri - Another case of a surging lower team looking for a pelt, but in this case the Tier E Razorbacks are ready to make a full coat if they can prevent Mizzou from winning the East!

Arizona St @ Arizona - The Territorial Cup hasn't looked this good in the 21st century! Both 9-2, both Tier C, #17 and #18 on our ranking list - and the Pac-12 South title in reach for both. Wildcats get the three point ad for being at home from us.

Stanford @ UCLA - ...but they'll have to hope the Bruins lose if they want to play Oregon next week. And UCLA's firing on too many cylinders to let that happen.

Virginia @ Virginia Tech - Both 5-6, both need the win to go to a bowl. Question: if VaTech lost, would they really consider letting Frank Beamer go?

Saturday - South Carolina @ Clemson - Always fun! Clemson by 4.5 up to 6, depending on which of us you listen to. The state championship is on the line...

Kentucky @ Louisville - And here too, where the Cardinals are favored by 8 up to 13.5, depending on who you get your info from. We're the low end, as usual - we've had a soft spot for the Wildcats all year, but if they continue their downward trend, it may be much worse than that.

Michigan @ Ohio St - Probably Brady Hoke's last game. And if OSU comes up with a reason to run it up - to impress the committee, perhaps? - this could be uglier than the 17-22 point spreads we have in place.

Purdue @ Indiana - We can't even say it's for the state championship...Notre Dame won that. Hoosiers by 1.5 to 3.

Notre Dame @ USC - Glad they've found a way to keep this one on the schedule. Trojans by 3-7, although if Golson plays well, we see ND having a puncher's chance.

Florida @ Florida St - If you bet on this game, you're crazy. Sure, the spread is consistent: 5-11 points (we have it at 11), but if FSU wants to keep it close...if Florida decides to "win one for the Champer"....or lay down and die...this could be a rout either way, or a tie game at the death...

Baylor @ Texas Tech - Nothing to see here: Assuming the Bears show up (and they will), this game's job is to certify their credentials to pass TCU...who put up 82 on Tech. Hmm... The spread is 16-25, but if Baylor gets rolling, it might as well be 1625...

Kansas @ Kansas St - See previous comments.

Auburn @ Alabama - Why bother? The Iron Bowl can't POSSIBLY top last year's game... 'Bama by 5-10 points.

Oregon @ Oregon St - If you don't keep at least half an eye on this game, you might be surprised come Sunday morning! Sure, the Ducks are favored over the Beavers (by the way, the Civil War trophy is a combination of the two animals - hence, a platypus!) by 13-22 points, but there's a reason we're at the low end of that spread. OSU/Oregon has ALWAYS had the potential to ruin someone's season!

Games of a betting interest (but DON'T BET ON THEM!):

Friday - Northern Illinois @ Western Michigan - Hard to believe the Broncos are favored over the Huskies, but they are! We say by 1 point; Vegas says 7. (Sagarin, by the way, splits the difference: 3 1/2.)

Buffalo @ U Mass - The official line is Buffalo by 2; we call it EVEN. (Sagarin encourages us by picking UM by 2!)

Wyoming @ New Mexico - Coming off the shellacking Boise gave them, the Cowboys are 4 1/2 point underdogs in Vegas; we have them as one point faves! (Sagarin rates the game even.)

Games that are BOTH interesting on and off the field:

Thursday - LSU @ Texas A&M - We're picking the Aggies by 1; Vegas picks the Tigers by 2.5! (Sagarin rates it even.) Two teams who could beat anyone, but don't...

Friday - Nebraska @ Iowa - The Big Ten keeps trying to contrive rivalries since Oklahoma no longer shares the schedule. But this one seems to us to be the most natural, geographically. We see the Huskers by 3; Vegas has Iowa by 1. (Sagarin agrees with us.)

Georgia Tech @ Georgia - The state championship of Georgia looks like a foregone conclusion for Vegas; they favor UGA by 13 (Sagarin says 16.5!). We think Tech will stay within 6. (We do have a soft spot for Georgia Tech, though...)

Minnesota @ Wisconsin - We have a soft spot for the Golden Gophers, too - and they've got a legit shot at the Big Ten West title, if they can go into Madison and steal a game the way they stole the game (and the ball!) from Nebraska last week! We have UW as only a five point favorite; Vegas thinks Melvin Gordon runs wild and wins by two TDs. We like you, Badgers, but we're rooting for UM this weekend!!

Mississippi St @ Ole Miss - Can't recall this ever being THE game of the weekend! If Ole Miss had held up their end of the bargain, this could have been the game of the season! The casinos think MSU should be two-point favorites; we think Ole Miss at home should be the favorite, though not by much (half-point?). In the SEC West, home field has been everything. Our hunch is that it will be here, too.

Wednesday, November 12, 2014

Ever take a look at the Massey Index?

No, it's not a money-market fund, nor a government economic indicator. It's the composite of 121 different rating systems from all across the country, in an attempt to derive the ultimate "meta-ranking", the consensus of all the polls and surveys and computer rankings and "systems" as best Kenneth Massey can do. Take a look - it's amazing! (It's also overload, if you're not ready for it!)

A few things to notice...

1. Their top four are Alabama, Mississippi St, Oregon, and TCU. (The one difference is that we have Oregon 5th, and Florida St in the top 4. Massey lists them seventh.)

2. The SEC has strength. They have the top two (it was the top four last week!), four of the top six, and six of the top 12. Within that top twelve, there are also two Pac-12 schools, two Big-12 schools, an ACC rep and one from the Big-10.

3. Marshall is 21st. (We have them in Tier E, which is #25-30.) Following them, the next highest "Group Of Five" school is Boise St, at #30.

4. Records aren't all that important. It depends who you played...and more often, whom you beat. #1 Alabama has a loss, and the three undefeated teams are #2, #7, and #21. Two-loss Auburn and Ole Miss are #5 and #6, respectively, and three-loss LSU is #12. (So, you can lose, if you're losing to top-ten SEC teams...)

5. There are teams the Massey Index loves - Louisiana Tech is all the way up in #39, whereas we have them in Tier K, equivalent to #61-66 - and there are teams that really sink in this ranking, like South Florida, whom we have in Tier P (#97-100). They come in at #111, just above Tier S Hawaii and just behind Tier R- Southern Miss.

6. #128 is not SMU! Despite being the only winless team in the entirety of FBS, the woeful Mustangs are only #127...Georgia St gets the honor of falling just below them into the cellar (and it's not really close). At least they were also a Bottom Six team (actually, we only had a Bottom Five in tier U this week) - and those five teams come in at spots #123, 124, 126, 127, and 128, with only Tier T Eastern Michigan disturbing the sweep at #125.

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Football is for following, but some things are more important...

Before the always hard-fought rivalry game between LSU and Alabama Saturday, Les Miles and Nick Saban had a tender conversation at midfield on a much more important subject - the death of Miles' mother the previous week, at age 91. It's worth a look, especially if you're one who thinks of football coaches as one-track-mind football machines.

Sunday, November 9, 2014

Reviewing our Week 10 predictions!

Well, if you've been with us this week, you know we've been firing on all cylinders in Week 10! Here's our results...

Successes: Bowling Green over Akron...NIU over Ball St...Temple closer than a TD to Memphis...Baylor destroying Oklahoma...Duke big over Syracuse...Army over UConn...TCU over Kansas St...LSU took Alabama to overtime....Toronto over Ottawa late...Hamilton wins against Montreal (half-credit)..,Cardinals big over the Rams. We'd like to be able to claim Minnesota's win over Iowa, but we didn't, so we can't.

Missteps: We said UL-Monroe would win against Appalachian St; the Warhawks gave up a late FG to lose 31-29...We were surprised Old Dominion beat FIU 38-35, but they had to score ten points in the last 65 seconds to do it...Ohio St beat Michigan St, on the road...Arizona St sure impressed us, handling Notre Dame...Didn't think Saskatchewan still had it in them to beat Edmonton...and the half-credit Hamilton was because we did NOT think the Tiger-Cats would win by enough to win the division (8). They won by fifteen. (Yes, that's more than eight.)

(And there's still the chance that Chicago could stay close to the Packers tonight.) So, right now, we are 10.5 - 5.5, so we will take that!

...and now, the nitty gritty details!

You'll notice, when you look at the new tiers for Week 10 of the NCAA FBS season, that we've started doing some more subdividing of the teams beyond the six-member tiers we'd cut them into previously. Treat the plus/minus markings the same way you would school grades (we ARE old school teachers, after all!) - a plus indicates that we think they're slightly better than the rest of the tier; a minus that they're slightly worse.

Also, you'll notice that Tier R is under investigation for steroid use, as it's grown abnormally large in a short time frame. Frankly, we didn't think those teams could be easily separated, so we didn't.

Later today, we'll post outright predictions for next week's games...and then we'll see how they compare with the Vegas betting lines. As those of you who were following our posts yesterday are aware,  our tier arrangement forecast games better than either Vegas OR our own personal instincts did this week for the college ranks. (The NFL has achieved such parity that it's a crapshoot each week; if we try this with the pros, it'll be a complete lark!) Regardless of the outcome - which we forbid you to use for betting purposes! - it should be interesting to follow!

As for specific details of the new arrangement:

1. We've chosen our Final Four - at least, for the moment! TCU and Alabama are clearly the most accomplished of the one-loss teams, with strong victories yesterday and elsewhere, along with the most tenuous of losses on their records (last second losses on the home field of top teams). They sit along side undefeated and proven Mississippi St and Florida St as the four best...for now.

2. Baylor, Oregon, and Ohio St are next in line. Again, they've shown their strength consistently, and particularly yesterday, and should be the next in if one of the four above falters.

3. If we had to rank right now, we'd go Bulldogs first, then the Crimson Tide, Seminoles, Horned Frogs, Ducks, Bears, and Buckeyes seventh.

4. Arizona St, Duke, and LSU are for real. While it's hard to picture them in the playoff at this point (especially the three-loss Bayou Bengals), they have shown doubters wrong throughout the season.

5. While they put up a battle yesterday after the outcome was decided, SMU is clearly #128 in the land. Which is such a shame, after all the work June Jones and others did to bring them back from literal extinction and the dregs where they've returned to. But as the only winless team in the FBS - and without anything even close to a win on their resume - we're forced to applaud effort at this stage, knowing they've no chance for competitiveness.