Maybe you just shouldn't punt!

After last night's disaster by the Indianapolis Colts (represented here, including a version by the Maine 1-AA team that shows how it might have meant to work), and the unbelievable last play of the Michigan/Michigan State game Saturday, perhaps we should all just go Pulaski Academy and never punt the ball again!

There's been a serious move in the "punt-less" direction over the last two years, where coaches "challenge the conventional wisdom" by going for it on fourth down around midfield, or even slightly on their own side of the field if it's short enough; but no somber commitment to the cause. I consider myself somewhat conservative in my approach, and here's the set of general rules I'd use as a head football coach if I were ever forced into the job...

Past midfield? Never punt.
Between your own 30 and midfield?Go for 4th and anything less than 3. Maybe 4-5, depending...
Behind your own 30? Go for 4th and 1 or less. Maybe 2...

(Subject to what kind of team I have, the opponent, the conditions, the time left in the game, etc.)

So, why don't more coaches punt less - like, WAY less? Here's the take of Paul Dalen, who wrote the piece for SB Nation about the math behind Pulaski's work linked above...

I don't think this kind of analysis would be a surprise to any decent coach. So, why do coaches "play it safe" (as if it weren't safer to make the choice to score more points)?

The answer to that, I think, lies in the way that we view errors of commission versus errors of omission. Or in other words, a coach that makes a choice to punt the ball from the 20-yard line would be viewed as making sound decisions, whereas one that chooses to go for it on the 20-yard line is considered a risk-taker. If the decision to punt turns out to be the decision that gives the ball back and the opponent then scores a TD, then the decision to punt is hardly considered as part of the evaluation of the sequence of events. If the decision to go for it fails and the opponent scores a TD, then the decision will be second-guessed ad nauseum. The result of both decisions is the same, but one would be criticized much more harshly than the other.

Humans are funny creatures.

We are indeed...we are indeed.

(Now, by the way, Kevin Kelley of Pulaski Academy also believes in onside kickoffs after almost every score - and they score a LOT; they're 10-0 this season - and now, he's planning on incorporating rugby style lateral passing into virtually every downfield play, something I've wondered about for years! WHY, if we think it'll work on the last play of the game, do we NEVER use downfield laterals the REST of the game? Wouldn't practicing it make it less dangerous by an order of magnitude or more?)

Footy news - 5/22/2015

Geelong whomped Carlton from the opening bounce Friday night (again, that's already happened in Australia) 140-63, increasing the pressure on the Blues to do something dramatic when, truthfully, no quick fix is going to change the fact that they simply don't have enough AFL talent on their roster. Firing legendary coach Mick Malthouse, now the winningest coach in history, in mid-season is cruel and would do no good; the calls from the sensible folks to announce that Malthouse will coach out the season and a new coach (and lots of new players!) would join the Blues for 2016 makes more sense at this point. (A story on afl.com.au's "Pick A Winner" show listed only SEVEN players who should by consensus in the Carlton ranks, and another half-dozen who might; the others aren't really qualified to play at the highest level yet. Legendary player Garry Lyon said Monday that only THREE players "deserved to wear their jumpers" (which are uniform jerseys, statesiders). THAT makes it tough to win when you have a 22-man roster of grown men AFL players on the other side of the pitch!)

Meanwhile, the AFL has revised the system for two draft day peculiarities that Americans aren't familiar with: the father-son connection and the academy priority pick. This year, for example, Isaac Heeney, easily one of the two or three best players in the draft, went to Sydney at choice number 18 because he had been "raised" and trained in the Sydney Swan Training Academy. There should certainly be some credit given to a club for doing the work which made the player great, but Melbourne was willing to draft him at 2 and never had the chance. Similarly, Joe Daniher went to Essendon a few years ago at pick 10, even though he was arguably the best player in the draft and would have gone #1 in the open market - however, since his dad played for Essendon, he had the right to declare himself a Bomber, and being highly rated that required the Dons to spend whatever their highest draft choice was on him. The new system is extremely complicated, but computer apps can handle those details and level out the playing field without depriving clubs of those advantages. (Wonder how long it'll be for a Giant or Sun to be drafted as a father-son!)

One of the funny occurrences in the Geelong game, especially for an AFL regular season game, was the request on the field after the game from winning team member Cam Guthrie, 23 years of age, to veteran two-time Brownlow Medal winner Chris Judd of Carlton for his jumper, ideally signed! The speculation, well-founded, is that Guthrie had grown up as a footy player idolizing Judd (a good choice, as footy role models go), and although Guthrie frankly had a better performance than Judd Friday night, he's simply "that kind of dude", as they called him in the radio booth! Judd obliged, but hesitated about taking Guthrie's Geelong jersey in return...

First, two quick notes from the AFL Friday night game...

Friday night in Australia is early morning here in the States, so the Friday Footy package comes on at 4 a.m. here in Idaho...it's not that we're psychic and can predict the outcomes a day in advance! Needless to say, though, we had predicted Collingwood to move to 5-1, but instead it's Geelong defeating the Crows 100-59 with a blitzkrieg of a first half: five goals in the first ten minutes to lead 30-1, leading 70 to 10 just before halftime. Collingwood crept back into the match in the second half, closing within 23 before three goals in two minutes for the Cats put the game out of reach.

Two points of note: One is in this article the game score is linked to, and that's the curious and inexplicable fact that since round 14 of last year (a span of fifteen straight games), whatever team played Carlton has LOST their game the next week. Collingwood won by 75 over the Blues last week and were five point favorites last night...but the Blues jinx got them! In fact, looking at the schedule, it seems very likely to continue for another few games, at least until round 10, when Sydney follows up a game against Carlton with a visit to the Gold Coast, where they'll undoubtedly be massive favorites against the currently 1-4 Suns...

The second note is one of the best examples of coachspeak you'll ever hear, in the main article on afl.com.au. After the game, Collingwood head coach Nathan Buckley was asked about the game - the game, you understand, where his team had a five goal deficit before the fans had sat down from the concession stand, and where they scored one goal to eleven for Geelong with a few minutes to go in the half...

"At the 10-minute mark of the game we're five goals down, so that's not the way that we wanted to begin," Buckley said.
"We spoke about starting well but we didn't get there. All credit to the Cats..."  
SO, coach..."That's not the way you wanted to begin"? Down five goals right away? No, we wouldn't THINK so... "We spoke about starting well but we didn't get there"... No? Down 70-10 isn't starting well? Huh... Glad you told us! Never would have guessed it.

(To his infinite credit, however, as almost every AFL coach and player does, he owned up to the failures of the team, and undoubtedly began addressing the issues immediately. After all, what else are you going to say after a defeat like that? So, did we win? No? Well, we're planning to appeal...)

Nothing more than a friendly rivalry, right?

This feels like my experience at Caltech! A Georgia Tech student was sentenced for hacking into the U-Georgia @ Athens website to...ah, edit their football schedule...

And then there's this...

Fire alarm at Patriots hotel goes off in middle of the night

Posted by Darin Gantt on January 27, 2015, 7:29 AM EST

The Patriots ball boy who took the footballs to the bathroomis going to have to make room in the doghouse.

Because the guy in charge of wake-up calls at the Patriots’ team hotel is going to be in there with him.

Via Jeff Darlington of the NFL Network, the fire alarm at the Patriots hotel went off in the middle of the night, forcing everyone up for about 10 minutes.

The hotel was not on fire, thankfully.

But the Patriots might not be as well-rested today as they’d have otherwise hoped.

Bad Lip Reading Returns!

EVER SEE ANY OF THESE? Bad Lip Reading on the NFL Sidelines takes the regular sideline and field camera work that the league office does immaculately well, and puts the most hilarious and seemingly accurate words in the players' mouths. Take a listen!