Sunday, November 16, 2014

Here are our professional games forecast for Week 11 (and CFL playoff week one!)

NFL Week 11 games
            Having spread our 32 teams out into eight tiers now, tier 1 being championship material and tier 8 being first-pick-in-the-draft material, we can start using these tiers for setting point spreads as well, always remembering that nobody has a clue how to predict NFL games! Got that? All right, then – here we go!

Buffalo @ Miami (Thur 6:30 pm)
            5-4 tier 5 @ 5-4 tier 4. Miami by 5. Vegas says by 5 ½. Dolphins won 22-9.
Minnesota @ Chicago (Sun 11 am)
            4-5 tier 6 @ 3-6 tier 7. Bears by 1. Vegas says by 3 ½. Bears won 21-13.
Houston @ Cleveland (Sun 11 am)
            4-5 tier 6 @ 6-3 tier 3. Browns by 9. Vegas says 3 ½. Houston upset the Browns, 23-7. Vegas' point, 1-0.
Seattle @ Kansas City (Sun 11 am)
            6-3 tier 4 v. 6-3 tier 4. Chiefs by 3. Vegas says Seahawks by 1. Chiefs won, 24-20. Our point: 1-1!
Atlanta @ Carolina (Sun 11 am)
            3-6 tier 7 @ 3-5-1 tier 5. Panthers by 7. Vegas says by 3. Atlanta blocked a field goal to win the game, 19-17.
Cincinnati @ New Orleans (Sun 11 am)
            5-3-1 tier 3 @ 4-5 tier 5. Saints by 1. Vegas says by 7. The Bengals pull the upset IN New Orleans, 27-10, so we win this "bet". FF up 2-1.
Tampa Bay @ Washington (Sun 11 am)
            1-8 tier 8 @ 3-6 tier 6. Redskins by 7. Vegas agrees. And we were both wrong...27-7, Bucs.
Denver @ St. Louis (Sun 11 am)
            7-2 tier 1 @ 3-6 tier 7. Broncos by 9. Vegas says by 10 ½. When you've got Shaun Hill going 20-29 w no interceptions, and "Greg The Leg" Zeurlein kicking five FGs, plus three injured receivers for the Broncos, you get a 22-7 Rams victory.
San Francisco @ New Jersey Giants (Sun 11 am)
            5-4 tier 5 @ 3-6 tier 6. Giants by 1. Vegas says the 49ers by 4 ½. And the Niners won by six, 16-10. Point, Vegas, score is 2-2. So we call the contest a tie this week.
Oakland @ San Diego (Sun 2:05 pm)
            0-9 tier 8 @ 5-4 tier 4. Chargers by 11. Vegas says by 10. The Raiders said seven. They may have lost 16 in a row, but they seem to always play close games!
Philadelphia @ Green Bay (Sun 2:25 pm)
            6-2 tier 2 @ 6-3 tier 1. Packers by 4. Vegas says by 7. On the other hand, the Packers are on a ROLL. 53 points without seeming to try hard against a division leader - ridiculous.
Detroit @ Arizona (Sun 2:25 pm)
            7-2 tier 2 @ 8-1 tier 1. AZ lost its QB. Arizona by (less than) 5. Vegas says by 1, which given the circumstances makes more sense. Great game! A superb defensive struggle in which AZ put up two quick TDs and made them hold up for 50 more minutes against Stafford, Megatron, and the Lions, 14-6.
New England @ Indianapolis (6:30 pm)
            7-2 tier 1 @ 6-3 tier 2. Colts by 1. Vegas says by 2 ½. And the Pats made it clear who the best in the AFC is: New England 42, Indy 20.
Pittsburgh @ Tennessee (Mon 6:20 pm)
            6-4 tier 3 @ 2-7 tier 8. Steelers by 7. Vegas says by 5 ½.

The thing about those picks, to us, is that our instincts say that the Vegas line makes perfect sense: Houston could very well stay close to the Browns; Seattle "should" be able to beat KC, the Saints at home are a juggernaut; and the 49ers "should" be the favorite as well. But we'll stick with the tiers and see what happens! (There's no money riding on it, after all - this is all fun and games!)

And the CFL PLAYOFFS start this weekend!

BC Lions @ Montreal Alouettes (Sun 1 pm) – West semifinal
            Both 9-9 teams; both looked poor last week. Home field advantage will be important… Montreal by 3.
Saskatchewan Roughriders @ Edmonton Eskimos (Sun 4:30 pm) – East semifinal
            Eskimos finished 12-6, the Roughriders 10-8. MMQB “leans towards the Eskimos”, and we do too. Edmonton by 5.

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