Terminal Thursday Thoughts

I've talked about this all week, and this is my last scheduled post of the cycle, so let me start and end with the reminder: if you're reading this blog and want it to continue more or less as I'm doing...

COMMENT ON THIS POST THIS WEEK!

The issue, of course, is that as much as I love doing this blog, as much as crunching numbers to quantify and align teams at their supposed performance levels is fun for me to do...the time and effort it takes to do the thorough job for all of the teams I feel need to be covered each week is more than I have available to me, at least when you combine that with my regular (read: "paying") job, caring for my children, and the deteriorating condition of my health (which has zero to do with this blog). 

In the past, I've had people from Idaho, California, Nevada, North Carolina and Washington who've contacted me about what they've read, and I've known through that kind of anecdotal evidence that we were reaching people, that what we were doing was valued by someone out there. It's not like we need a thousand regular readers, but if we don't have any, which is what the lack of comment feedback suggests, we're just "spitting into the wind", as they say.

If that's not the case, we need you to tell us so.

CONTACT us through the comment section on this or either of the other two posts over the last two days (our regular UPS and DOWNS column, and our PROPHECIES in PHOOTBALL overview of the weekend's procedings (which starts today with the Giants and "Redskins" - an article on line today suggesting the life expectancy of the latter name is close to becoming a finite, definable number). 

Here's a thought we were having ourselves that 538 picked up this morning - there seem to be a bunch of "good teams" in the NFL who have started their season 0-2, usually an indicator that the playoffs are out of reach for most. Consider this list of teams: Seattle, Baltimore, Indianapolis, Houston, Detroit, NJ Giants, and Philadelphia. History suggests that ONLY ONE of those seven teams will make it into the post-season! (I've not "forgotten" New Orleans and Chicago. That was intentional.) The chart below in the 538 article shows that of the 7-8 teams over the last two years to go 0-2, only one made the playoffs each year.To make the postseason, most of the time it'll take at least ten wins - and you only have fourteen games left to do so it. A tall order, given that something's not going well to begin with (or you wouldn't be 0-2!). 

(By the way, my thought is that the best bet for a playoff team out of this group is the winner of the Indy/Houston race, as Jax and the Titans are unlikely to reach more than eight wins apiece.)

The Eagles And Ravens Are Screwed
By REUBEN FISCHER-BAUM and CHADWICK MATLIN

We’re two weeks into the NFL season, and nine teams are 0-2. But these winless squads are not created equal: The Seattle Seahawks, last season’s NFC champion, are clearly in better shape than the terrible Chicago Bears. Still, two games is an eighth of the season, and two early losses can wipe out even the best teams’ margin of error for the rest of the season.

So, how bad is it to start 0-2? And which of these nine teams have already screwed up their playoff chances?

WEEKEND WESULTS - a day late!

Sometimes the first day of the school year slaps you in the face... and you don't get your Monday blog post out on time! (And sometimes you don't get it out on time and there's no good excuse at all!)

SO, here's your very-late-Monday recap of the weekend's action!

IN THE AFL this weekend, Friday night saw some unexpected clarity come to the top of the ladder when Hawthorn was upset by Port Adelaide 108-86, in Adelaide, in a game that's GOT to make the Power supporters wonder where THAT effort had been all season! Along with West Coast's fourth quarter annihilation of the gallant Western Bulldogs, which ended 162-85 but which was much closer until the last nine goals went the Eagles' way, the two top positions were solidified and Domain Stadium in Perth is going to get a LOT of use in September, hosting BOTH Fremantle and West Coast's games. The road to the first Saturday in October runs through Australia's southwest coast.

Of the other results, Fremantle's loss to the Kangaroos may be the most significant - combined with Adelaide's 131-44 rout of Brisbane, the final eight are fairly close to set. Sydney overran GWS 133-44 to re-take fourth spot, and with fairly easy games to finish the season should be able to maintain that lead over Western, Richmond (147-56 over pathetic Collingwood), and North Melbourne. Only Adelaide is still not quite secure, as a loss to West Coast next week could set up a winner take all game in the final round with Geelong, whose surprising draw with St. Kilda left them a game and a half out but in a position to climb past the Crows with two final wins.

To the Canadian Footballers, Toronto came back from the brink again to beat Ottawa 30-24; Calgary held off winless Saskatchewan 34-31; Montreal won over BC 23-13, and once again, Hamilton overwhelmed Edmonton 49-20. All nine teams have their first bye behind them now, so with eight games each across the board, the three teams who've managed six wins are Hamilton and Toronto in the East, and the defenders Calgary in the West, with Edmonton at 5-3 right behind them. Second-year Ottawa manages a 4-4 record, already doubling last year's win total even with two come-from ahead losses, while Montreal, Winnipeg, and the BC Lions sit in striking distance at 3-5. Saskatchewan, one of the favorites coming into the season, somehow is left still seeking win number one, at 0-8, six games back with ten to play.With two-thirds of the teams making the playoffs, they're only three games out of a playoff position, but still...there's a lot to do.

As for the NFL, there were some very educational games this weekend! We learned that the Redskins are in more trouble than we thought, if they keep getting RG3 hurt like they have. We learned that both Johnny Manziel and EJ Manuel have quarterbacking futures in Cleveland and Buffalo, respectively. We learned Ryan Tannehill may actually deserve the money Miami gave him. We learned Peyton Manning may have nerve issues in his fingertips that are going to continue to cause him cold/wet weather issues like (apparently) they did last winter in the playoffs for Denver. We learned that the Jets aren't as bad off as we'd feared, that the Chiefs have some hope, that the Seahawks are NOT going to show their cards any time soon, We learned that thanks to the Philadelphia Eagles, both Sam Bradford and Tim Tebow have second life in the NFL. We learned that the QB future of the league is bright, thanks to strong showings from youngsters like Jamies Winston in Tampa, Marcus Mariota in Tennessee, and most especially Teddy Bridgewater in Minnesota, who has erased the word "future" from his title. But most of all, we learned that what we love about football is watching when 303-pound Mike Purcell intercepts a pass for the 49ers and runs a third of the length of the field back for a fat guy touchdown! FAT GUY TD's ARE OUR RAISON d'EXISTENCE!

And a Redskins follow-up...not the last, of course!

NOW, in the wake of the previous post, Washington coach Jay Gruden has declared that Robert Griffin III WILL be the starter when the season starts in September.

Why?

I mean, why say it? What he's accomplished is to prove that NOBODY'S in charge in the District of Columbia (insert federal government joke here), since there are others in the Redskins organization who have made it CLEAR that Griffin is persona non grata there. Claiming Griffin - or anyone - is the starter NOW is like telling us what the political arrangement on the moon base will be when we haven't even established the base yet! All that's been accomplished is to put a target on RG3's back now, because any observer with a pulse will tell you it doesn't MATTER who goes into camp as the starter: someone will play their way IN or OUT of the job regardless.

But the soap opera just got a new plot twist...stay tuned.

The Redskins are at it again: We GUARANTEE that RG3 is FINISHED there!

Let's just put this out there for the world to understand now... The folks running the Washington DC NFL professional team, currently referred to as the "Redskins" for reasons that escape the politically correct, are complete idiots. 

It's tempting to simply blame the owner, Dan Snyder, and he is the one constant in the clusterf*** that this franchise has become. But he's not handling the day-to-day operation of the club, and blaming just him for the promotional letter which the team sent out to season ticket holders a couple of weeks ago naming all the star players who will be leading the team in 2015...and NOT including Robert Griffin III, ostensibly their starting QB? The man they gave up their draft future for? The man who presumably holds the starting job when camp starts for real in July? The man who IS the face of this franchise? (Be honest: is there ANYONE else on the Washington roster you'd recognize on sight?)

Haven't you just publicly slapped him in the face? Haven't you literally said to your season ticket holders, "RG3 is NOT part of our future"? And...haven't you done so WITHOUT talking to HIM? (As far as anyone knows?)

Now, we see this piece from FTW, where "theoretical back-up" and perennially mediocre NFL QB Kirk Cousins is working out with the coach's brother (MNF guru Jon Gruden) while Griffin is out of contact with his team.

Do you have any doubt who the starting quarterback will be for Washington in September? And...is it possible for Adam Silver to step in and plant some racist material on Snyder and get him out of the NFL? 

Maybe the Washington franchise is an ideal one for a Green Bay style arrangement: Sell its stock on the open market and make its fans part owners of the team. Washington's got one of the ten or so most loyal fan bases in the league - Make it work! IT CANNOT BE ANY WORSE THAN WHAT THEY'VE SAT THROUGH THE LAST DECADE!

...AND, what about the "wooden spoon"? Who gets the first draft pick?

Six teams have a shot at the worst record in the NFL: Tennessee, Oakland, Jacksonville, and Tampa all have 2-12 records, with the New York Jets and Washington one game up at 3-11. 

Projecting the last two games, the key may be the Tennessee at Jacksonville debacle this Thursday night - talk about a bad game. This season has shown that teams simply are not ready to play on Thursday nights, and the game is either a blowout (with one unprepared team) or a sludge match (with two). Add to that two BAD teams to begin with, and look out, America! You've been warned!

Regardless, the winner of that game probably takes themselves out of contention, because they'll each be heavy underdogs against division heavyweights Indy and Houston in week 17, even with extra time to prepare. Meanwhile, Oakland will be the underdog week 17 at Denver UNLESS they rest everybody for the playoff run (possible), but they'd still lose in more likelihood. This week's game, hosting Buffalo, may be more winnable. And Tampa Bay has two games that are at home, but against teams that need to win for their own playoff ambitions (Green Bay, New Orleans). All other things equal, we'd bet on the Buccaneers being the most likely to finish 2-14. But, if Tennessee loses both games, they ARE the #1 pick.

Sunday, Dec 14th in the NFL...

So, a few thoughts as the day progresses...

So, Cleveland coach Mike Pettine...are you satisfied with your decision to start the rookie? 30-0? Interceptions galore?  Continual taunting from Bengals players with the stupid "money gesture" of Manziel's? No chance to win?

If you're going to win a game with your defense, as Buffalo was doing,  the best way to seal it is to have magical defensive end Mario Williams strip Aaron Rodgers, knock the ball into the end zone, and use the old anti-fumble-forward rule to put the ball dead in the end zone for a safety! 

We were wrong to think Washngton would be able to hang with Odell Beckham Jr.  and the New Jersey Giants - the Blue men won 24-13, closing our competition gap to Following Football 3, Vegas casinos, 2. 

Thanks to an early safety by Tennessee's defense, the scores in the Jets/Titans game were fun to watch scroll across the screen: 5-3...8-3...11-3...11-10...and then the Jets pulled out the win with the first 16-11 score in NFL HISTORY!...and thereby ruined their chances for the first draft pick! It's a strange world...

Dallas Cowboys, take a bow! Yes, you won; yes, you now control the division, etc. But here's the thing: when you went up 21-0, all cylinders firing, that's fine...you've done that. Then Philly came back to blow past you to 24-21, and every sportswriter in America was preparing their lede: "Cowboys blow another one", etc. But you didn't. You immediately put together the most important drive of Coach Garrett's career, threw the pass to the god-like Dez Bryant, and put the game back on cruise control. That was something we DO NOT EXPECT from you, 8-8 Cowboys! But now, at 10-4 and in control of your destiny, we can expect a top finish from you! Congratulations! 

Random items from Week 12

“There’s Jesus, there’s girls, and there’s Marcus Mariota.” —12-year-old Charlie Pape, following the Ducks’ 44-10 win over Colorado, explaining to Oregon coach Mark Helfrich where Mariota’s future stands in the conversational hierarchy of students at O’Hara Catholic. (Thanks to Matt Hinton at Grantland for the quote!)

WISH I COULD TELL YOU WHERE THESE TWO QUOTES CAME FROM...just know that they're not ours, alas!...

"I call him "the Geno Atkins diet" because once he gets a little bit of bread, he's worthless."
- about NY Jets QB Geno Smith...
"RG3-8 is about to end his career as a sub, instead of just being a spokesman for one."
- about Robert Griffin III in D.C....

And we agree wholeheartedly with Holly Anderson - we LOVE the home v. home jersey tradition that UCLA and USC started last year! Last year, at the Colosseum, UCLA insisted on wearing its home blues, despite being the road team. They were assessed a time out penalty for the infraction; USC then called a time out before its very first play to "level the playing field", if you'll pardon the expression. If the NCAA didn't wisen up this year, I'm sure USC and UCLA played the same infraction game this year, with the roles reversed, and we're sure glad they did: this is such a cool tradition! Remember, for decades, the two schools shared the Colosseum, so they really were both home teams. With UCLA playing in the Rose Bowl these days, it's great to see nostalgia reign!



PS - d'you know how big Los Angeles is? USC and UCLA are both in LA, twelve miles apart...which means they're farther apart than North Carolina and Duke, who played Thursday night - their campuses are only separated by eight miles.

What's it like to be a fan of a hopeless losing team?

Dan Steinberg wrote about the Redskins' loss to the Buccaneers last weekend in this piece for the Washington Post. Undoubtedly it applies to plenty of places - Bottom Eight college teams, perennial fifty-loss NBA teams, even the opponent of DC that particular day, Tampa Bay. 

Meanwhile, halfway across the country, Chicago fans exhibit the same resentment and disenchantment over their seemingly hopeless situation in this piece for MMQB by SI's Robert Klemko. The tie-in for losing NFL teams, most of the time, is frustration with a quarterbacking situation, for one reason or another. The Redskins paid dearly to get the rights Robert Griffin III; the Bears thought they had their franchise quarterback for the next decade in Jay Cutler. Both players are now targets of the overflowing hostilities of the hometown patrons, tired of watching their mistake-prone team lose consistently to the star QBs they see on TV every week - Manning, Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Wilson, Luck, Stafford, Roethlisberger,...

The truth remains: if someone always wins, year after year, somewhere there's most likely another team that always loses. Year after year...after year.

We suffer from "premature tiering"!

Even with 1 1/2 games to go this weekend, we're ready to separate the NFL into eight tiers after Week Ten, although the gaps at the top are rather narrow!

Bottom Four: We're promoting the Jets after their upset win over the Steelers, which leaves us the Raiders, Jaguars, Bucs, and Titans.

Next Four Up: Four teams with moments of glory and weeks of misery - the Rams, Jets, Falcons, and Bears.

Tier Six: Four mediocre, non-descript teams on the field with interesting issues off it - the Vikings (Adrian Peterson), Redskins (RG3), Texans (JJWatt the celebrity), and the NYG (they're in New York).

Tier Five: These four teams seem to be good, and yet... they're still the Saints, Niners, Panthers, and Bills.

Tier Four: Now, we're in the upper half of the league, and these four teams could very well be in the playoffs in nine weeks - or not? Consistency! We'll just have to see what happens with the Seahawks, Chiefs, Dolphins, and Chargers.

Tier AFC North: Literally. How do you separate the Browns, Bengals, Steelers, and Ravens right now? Arguably, they may not be teams #9-12, but they belong together until someone makes a move (one direction or the other!).

Top Eight, Subdivided: The divisions here are a bit muddy, but let's see what makes sense - certainly the Cardinals and Broncos are up there, and the next two teams, Patriots and Packers, may or may not be below them. The Colts, Cowboys, and Eagles all sit very snugly up there next to them, and if we have to choose a number eight, the 7-2 Lions would probably be there. But these are the eight best in the league right now; interestingly, five are from the NFC and three from the AFC (but seven of our next eight are, too!).

Don't blame US if the pro tiers for Week 8 are imbalanced!

Blame the teams! We literally gave up trying to make the number of teams in each tier balance and went back to our guiding principle: Put teams that would play even games on a neutral field in the same tier. That means the chart looks more like a bell-curve than a flat line, but so be it! By the end of the season, it'll straighten itself out!

So, here we go: Quintile A is comprised of the teams we think are in control of their own Super Bowl destiny - they'd probably be favored over teams from B and C teams without issue; they'd be favored by double digits over Quintile D teams, and the E teams should find a way to call in sick...

Denver Broncos (6-1, firing on all cylinders)
Arizona Cardinals (6-1, sneaky good - finding a way to win every week)
Philadelphia Eagles (5-2, no shame losing 24-20 at Arizona!)
Dallas Cowboys (6-2, and we'll give them a pass for the OT loss last night)
Indianapolis Colts (5-3, but would you want to face Luck in a big game?)
New England Patriots (6-2, we had to move them back up - Brady's too good)

Quintile B has the teams who can still justifiably argue they are championship contenders, although they'd be underdogs playing the above six...

Green Bay Packers (5-3, more for Aaron Rodgers' health than anything else)
Detroit Lions (6-2, but if it takes THAT to beat the Falcons...)
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3, can't exclude them after Big Ben's performance Sunday!)
Cincinnati Bengals (4-2-1, still as fiery a contender as there is)
Baltimore Ravens (5-3, and in charge of their destiny)
San Diego Chargers (5-3, though they proved against Denver they're not top notch yet)
San Francisco 49ers (4-3, struggling, but it's hard to ignore the teams they've beaten)
Seattle Seahawks (4-3, see previous comment!)

Quintile C is the middle of the pack:

Buffalo Bills (5-3, we think they're above average, but they don't yet...)
Kansas City Chiefs (4-3, and maybe, just maybe...)
Miami Dolphins (4-3, on any given day...)
Carolina Panthers (3-4-1, and like all the others in group C, has the tools...)
New Orleans Saints (3-4, fabulous if they're at home. IF.)
Houston Texans (4-4, give us eleven JJ Watts and we can rule the world)
Cleveland Browns (4-3, beating the Raiders shouldn't count)

Quintile D teams are already giving up hope for this season...

Chicago Bears (3-5, they should be higher if we go on potential)
St. Louis Rams (2-5, but every once in a while, they rise up...)
New Yorkersey Giants (3-4, but really they're not that good)
Atlanta Falcons (2-6, how can a team look that good in the first half...)
Minnesota Vikings (3-5, and if Bridgewater pans out, on their way up...)
Washington Redskins (3-5, promoted after winning in Dallas, even if it's overtime)

Quintile E teams are the bye weeks in disguise:

Tennessee Titans (2-6, but that's deceptively good...)
New Yorkersey Jets (1-7, Geno Smith put up one of the classic terrible stat lines in history)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-7, does the guy in the Bud Light commercial want to change his living room and backyard back to how they were before?)
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7, how did they ever win a game?)
Oakland Raiders (0-7, but they've at least been competitive!)

"You remember SimCity?"

Bill Barnwell has the greatest description of a (potentially) bad football game I've heard in a lo-ong time... Courtesy of Grantland:

WASHINGTON (-5.5) over Titans

You played SimCity, right? You know, the original SimCity, the one you had on a gigantic 5.25-inch floppy disk, that SimCity. Do you remember how bad your attempts at a metropolis were when you played SimCity as a little kid? They were bizarre, nihilistic works of art.

Residential buildings just slapped next to smokestacks. A decaying commercial zone, victimized by a statistically improbable number of simultaneous earthquakes and Godzilla attacks. Electrical lines building a grid totally unconnected to any power plant. For public safety, six police stations and six fire stations placed directly next to one another next to a road that never loops back on itself and just runs out in the middle of nowhere. Oh, and the totally useful sports stadium, presumably attended by the one poor, confused family who showed up to live in one of your residential zones for a couple of in-game seconds before immediately leaving in a terrified huff.

Washington vs. Tennessee is the football equivalent of that city you created.