UPS to the AFL for an amazing season under some difficult conditions - dealing with the specter of racism against the aboriginal superstar Adam Goodes, who chose to retire quietly, after his final game, so as not to go through the traditional plaudits at the end of his last game that he so richly deserved and therefore avoid the possibility of negative reaction to deal with. The league can't be expected to solve a centuries-old problem singlehandedly in a few weeks, but the footy community did everything they could reasonably do for Adam and against racism. More than that, the murder of Adelaide Crows head coach Phil Walsh was handled with more aplomb and grace than could have ever been asked for - some of the most touching and beautiful moments ever seen on a sporting field took place in the aftermath. The league dealt with the after-effects of the Essendon doping scandal, the possibility of "tanking" for draft choices, and the seemingly everpresent shadow of injuries to its star players, such as Gary Ablett Jr and Nat Fyfe, the 2015 Brownlow Medal winner last night as best player in the league. Finally, as its highest paid player, Lance Franklin, admitted as the playoffs began that his injury issues were more of a mental health case than physical, the AFL and its community made great efforts to both shield him from the prying eyes of the media and to put those mental health issues in the light of day, exposing them as serious and no more or less debilitating OR worthy of embarrassment than a broken arm or an ACL. (Now, if they can get their free agency set-up to work more reasonably...)
DOWNS to the TEAMS WHO WERE EXPECTED TO DO SO WELL THIS SEASON! And yet, here we are, not even out of September, and some teams are so deep in a hole they probably can't dig themselves out of it before the season ends...
> Baltimore Ravens, 0-3, looking up at a hot Bengals team three games up and a tiebreaker, with improved wild card possibilities throughout the AFC... Is another Harbaugh going to the colleges next year?
> Saskatchewan RoughRiders, 2-11 and presumably out of the playoff picture completely, despite the ridiculously generous CFL playoff system which invites 2/3 of the league into the post-season. In theory, they are still just 3 1/2 games behind 5-7 Montreal for that last spot, but with six games remaining, the Mean Green has correctly started playing for next year already. The Riders, Grey Cup winners just three years ago, were expected to contend for the West division title this year with Edmonton and Calgary...instead, they're on coach number 2, quarterback number 3, and on to 2016...
> Oregon Ducks, 2-2 and 0-1 in conference. Still a very viable possibility of a Pac-12 North title, but that's not the OU goal - the college football playoffs are their goal, and while the 31-28 loss at Michigan State would have been survivable, the spanking they got at home last Saturday night from Utah, 62-20 (including a late gift TD by the third-teamers) was so comprehensive and so vivid that no voter will forget it. Ever.
> Many other teams who shot themselves in the foot, like Louisville (1-3), Nebraska (2-2), Texas (1-3), Texas' kicking game (0-2), Tennessee, Auburn, and South Carolina (all 2-2) and Arkansas (1-3...but hey, someone's got to lose in the SEC!); Marshall (3 bad wins and one BAD loss); the entire Mountain West (15-24 outside of conference, 11 of the wins coming against FCS schools); U Mass (1-3 and expected to contend for a MAC East title); Cal Poly SLO, Idaho State, and Montana of the Big Sky, 3-8 between them; Eastern Illinois (0-3); Stephen F Austin (0-4); the entire SWAC (3-12 outside of conference); and our #1 Bottom Team, Davidson of the Pioneer League, who plays almost equally-fruitless Valparaiso at home Saturday, in a meeting of the two last place teams in the Sagarin Ratings for the 253 Division 1 schools. Valpo is down to an amazing 6.67 rating, and yet is favored on the road at Davidson, who has set a record with their current rating of 3.08! It's conceivable that a bad Davidson loss this weekend could create a situation Sagarin's never had in D1: a negative rating.
Showing posts with label Oregon. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Oregon. Show all posts
Tuesday, September 29, 2015
Sunday, September 13, 2015
Weekend Wapp-up Wezults...
Moral of the story... letting family come in the way of football hurts your prognostication prowess! (On the other hand, letting football come in the way of family is FAR WORSE CRIME.) We did well with the Aussies; no complaints on the CFL or NFL, although they could've been better; but our college predictions, so good last week, were well under five-hundred yesterday - while our Saturday was (more appropriately) spent with the oldest son off at college visiting (and stocking his pantry and gas tank!). Nevertheless: priorities, priorities...
CFL: Hard to complain when we go 1-3, partly because this season is NUTS in the CFL, partly because we still outscored many experts! However, we went 1-2-1 against the spread, getting a win from Hamilton (appropriate, as that's the son's name!) and a push from the Winnipeg/Saskatchewan game, while Ottawa and Edmonton pulled the mild upsets.
AFL: Hit three of the four out of the park - it will indeed be West Coast and Fremantle hosting the preliminary finals in west Australia in two weeks, and Adelaide did manage to beat the Western Bulldogs on the <ahem> "home" grounds of the MCG by seven points; our one miss was Richmond's loss at the hands of the well-rested North Melbourne Kangaroos, who were allowed to rest half their team last week in prep for this game. North plays at Sydney next Saturday, and Adelaide plays at Hawthorn on Friday; the winners return to west Australia the following weekend for the shot at the Grand Final.
NFL: Went 7-7 so far against the spread (NOTE to the uninitiated: the NFL is the HARDEST to make a living at betting on because of the parity of the league. Our model assumes only about a fourteen point gap from team 1 to team 32 on the best of days; certain conditions reduce that even further.) and 8-6 straight up, with two more games to go tomorrow night. Very impressed with Buffalo, Tennessee, and Cincy today!
NCAA: Well, let's see...
--> TOP TIER GAMES: Oddly, we were 3-0 against the spread but only 1-2 straight up. (Check the original post for the specific games and predictions - too many to list!) Oregon and Mississippi St covered, but only the Sooners came through for the win.
--> OTHER GAMES OF INTEREST: We went 12-4 straight up (with some more leaners that I should have been more explicit about claiming) but only 9-13 against the spread. (Particularly proud of picking in Houston's favor!)
-->BLOWOUTS: Of course all thirteen won (ahem - we're looking at YOU, Auburn! Very pleased for Jacksonville St!) but we only picked the right side of the spread explosion on five of the thirteen.
--> OTHER FBS: Actually, we did better on these than I thought we had... we went 15-11 against the spread, which we'll take; and we were 24-2 straight up (the two upsets being Bowling Green's rout of Big Ten's Maryland, 48-27 IN Maryland, and the worst of the SEC wounds, Arkansas' 16-12 loss to Toledo from the MAC, 16-12). So, over all in the FBS choices, we went 32-32 against the spread - coin toss - and 50-8 straight up.
--> FCS GAMES: Here is where we fell on our faces... we may have managed 11-6 straight up (not as impressive as it sounds) but we were an abysmal 4-13 against the spread in the FCS only games. We plead ignorance, but we were the ones who picked which games to name, so that's no excuse. We did slightly better overall in the FCS games, and while our overall betting record this week was 61-14 straight up and just 36-45 against the spread; our record including games we didn't share ahead of time was three below 50% on points. (Can't claim it, though, unless we'd said it first.)
....OVERALL, then, here are our 2015 records so far:
AFL - 146 right and 55 wrong overall; 118-83 against the spread.
CFL - 27 right and 21 wrong overall.
NFL - 7 and 7 overall; 8 and 6 against the spread; two games still pending.
NCAA - 131 and 24 overall; 83 right against the spread and 72 wrong.
CFL: Hard to complain when we go 1-3, partly because this season is NUTS in the CFL, partly because we still outscored many experts! However, we went 1-2-1 against the spread, getting a win from Hamilton (appropriate, as that's the son's name!) and a push from the Winnipeg/Saskatchewan game, while Ottawa and Edmonton pulled the mild upsets.
AFL: Hit three of the four out of the park - it will indeed be West Coast and Fremantle hosting the preliminary finals in west Australia in two weeks, and Adelaide did manage to beat the Western Bulldogs on the <ahem> "home" grounds of the MCG by seven points; our one miss was Richmond's loss at the hands of the well-rested North Melbourne Kangaroos, who were allowed to rest half their team last week in prep for this game. North plays at Sydney next Saturday, and Adelaide plays at Hawthorn on Friday; the winners return to west Australia the following weekend for the shot at the Grand Final.
NFL: Went 7-7 so far against the spread (NOTE to the uninitiated: the NFL is the HARDEST to make a living at betting on because of the parity of the league. Our model assumes only about a fourteen point gap from team 1 to team 32 on the best of days; certain conditions reduce that even further.) and 8-6 straight up, with two more games to go tomorrow night. Very impressed with Buffalo, Tennessee, and Cincy today!
NCAA: Well, let's see...
--> TOP TIER GAMES: Oddly, we were 3-0 against the spread but only 1-2 straight up. (Check the original post for the specific games and predictions - too many to list!) Oregon and Mississippi St covered, but only the Sooners came through for the win.
--> OTHER GAMES OF INTEREST: We went 12-4 straight up (with some more leaners that I should have been more explicit about claiming) but only 9-13 against the spread. (Particularly proud of picking in Houston's favor!)
-->BLOWOUTS: Of course all thirteen won (ahem - we're looking at YOU, Auburn! Very pleased for Jacksonville St!) but we only picked the right side of the spread explosion on five of the thirteen.
--> OTHER FBS: Actually, we did better on these than I thought we had... we went 15-11 against the spread, which we'll take; and we were 24-2 straight up (the two upsets being Bowling Green's rout of Big Ten's Maryland, 48-27 IN Maryland, and the worst of the SEC wounds, Arkansas' 16-12 loss to Toledo from the MAC, 16-12). So, over all in the FBS choices, we went 32-32 against the spread - coin toss - and 50-8 straight up.
--> FCS GAMES: Here is where we fell on our faces... we may have managed 11-6 straight up (not as impressive as it sounds) but we were an abysmal 4-13 against the spread in the FCS only games. We plead ignorance, but we were the ones who picked which games to name, so that's no excuse. We did slightly better overall in the FCS games, and while our overall betting record this week was 61-14 straight up and just 36-45 against the spread; our record including games we didn't share ahead of time was three below 50% on points. (Can't claim it, though, unless we'd said it first.)
....OVERALL, then, here are our 2015 records so far:
AFL - 146 right and 55 wrong overall; 118-83 against the spread.
CFL - 27 right and 21 wrong overall.
NFL - 7 and 7 overall; 8 and 6 against the spread; two games still pending.
NCAA - 131 and 24 overall; 83 right against the spread and 72 wrong.
Saturday, August 22, 2015
All Ten D1 Conferences Forecast for 2015!
Having completed our examination of the ten conferences in division one-A (five Power Five conferences and five Group of Five conferences), we came up with some suprising predictions, mostly because of when and where certain pairs of rivals happen to play each other. All position ties are broken by head to head results whenever possible. (For example, LSU should defeat Auburn.) We'll follow up with the overall records a bit later, but these are the in-conference records we project for the upcoming season:
SEC West: 1. Alabama (7-1, 11-1), 2. LSU (6-2, 10-2), 3. Auburn (6-2, 10-2), 4. Ole Miss (5-3, 9-3), 5. Texas A&M (4-4, 8-4), 6. Arkansas (2-6, 6-6), 7. Mississippi St (2-6, 6-6).
SEC East: 1. Georgia (6-2, 10-2), 2. Tennessee (6-2, 10-2), 3. Missouri (4-4, 8-4), 4. South Carolina (3-5, 6-6), 5. Kentucky (2-6, 5-7), 6. Florida (1-7, 4-8), 7. Vanderbilt (0-8, 3-9).
(Alabama def. Georgia for championship; CFP bound.)
PAC-12 North: 1. Oregon (8-1, 10-2), 2. Stanford (7-2, even beating UO!, 9-3), 3. California (3-6, 5-7), 4. Washington (2-7, 4-8), 5. Washington St (2-7, 4-8), 6. Oregon St (1-8, 3-9).
PAC-12 South: 1. UCLA (8-1, 11-1), 2. USC (7-2, 10-2), 3. Arizona St (6-3, 8-4), 4. Arizona (5-4, 8-4), 5. Utah (4-5, 6-6), 6. Colorado (0-9, 2-10).
(Oregon defeats UCLA for championship; CFP bound.)
BIG 12: 1. TCU (9-0, 11-1), 2. Baylor (8-1, 11-1), 3. Oklahoma (7-2, 9-3), 4. Texas (6-3, 8-4), 5. Oklahoma St (4-5, 7-5), 6. West Virginia (4-5, 7-5), 7. Kansas St (3-6, 6-6), 8. Texas Tech (2-7, 4-8), 9. Iowa St (1-8, 2-10) 10. Kansas (1-8, 2-10).
(TCU goes to CFP.)
BIG 10 East: 1. Ohio St (8-0, 12-0), 2. Michigan St (7-1, 11-1), 3. Penn St (6-2, 10-2), 4. Michigan (5-3, 9-3), 5. Indiana (2-6, 5-7), 6. Maryland (1-7, 4-8), 7. Rutgers (1-7, 5-7).
BIG 10 West: 1. Wisconsin (7-1, 10-2), 2. Minnesota (6-2, 10-2), 3. Nebraska (5-3, 7-5), 4. Iowa (4-4, 8-4), 5. Northwestern (2-6, 4-8), 6. Illinois (1-7, 4-8), 7. Purdue (0-8, 1-11).
(Ohio St defeats Wisconsin - again; CFP bound.)
ACC Atlantic: 1. Clemson (7-1, 11-1), 2. Florida St (6-2, 10-2), 3. North Carolina St (6-2, 10-2), 4. Louisville (5-3, 8-4), 5. Boston College (2-6, 4-8), 6. Syracuse (1-7, 4-8), 7. Wake Forest (0-8, 2-10).
ACC Coastal: 1. Virginia Tech (7-1, 10-2), 2. Georgia Tech (6-2, 8-4), 3. Duke (5-3, 9-3), 4. Miami-FL (4-4, 7-5), 5. North Carolina (4-4, 8-4), 6. Pitt (2-6, 4-8), 7. Virginia (0-8, 1-11).
(Clemson defeats Virginia Tech, but will be the odd team out of the CFP.)
Independents: Notre Dame (10-2), BYU (7-5), Army-West Point (6-6).
American East: 1. Central Florida (7-1, 9-3), 2. East Carolina (6-2, 7-5), 3. Cincinnati (5-3, 8-4), 4. Temple (5-3, 7-5), 5. South Florida (2-6, 3-9), 6. U Conn (1-7, 2-10).
American West: 1. Houston (7-1, 10-2), 2. Memphis (6-2, 8-4), 3. Navy (5-3, 8-4), 4. SMU (2-6, 3-9), 5. Tulane (2-6, 4-8), 6. Tulsa (0-8, 2-10).
(Central Florida defeats Houston for championship.)
Mountain West MTN: 1. Boise St (8-0, 12-0), 2. Utah St (7-1, 8-4), 3. Colorado St (6-2, 9-3), 4. Air Force (5-3, 7-5), 5. Wyoming (2-6, 4-8), 6. New Mexico (1-7, 4-8).
Mountain West WST: 1. San Diego St (6-2, 7-5), 2. Nevada (5-3, 7-5). 3. San Jose St (3-5, 4-8), 4. Fresno St (3-5, 4-8), 5. UNLV 1-7, 2-10), 6. Hawai'i (1-7, 3-10).
(Boise St defeats San Diego St, qualifies for New Year's Six Bowls.)
Conf USA East: 1. Marshall (8-0, 12-0), 2. Western Kentucky (7-1, 9-3), 3. Middle Tennessee (5-3, 6-6), 4. Old Dominion (5-3, 8-4), 5. Florida International (3-5, 4-8), 6. Florida Atlantic (1-7, 2-10), 7. UNC-Charlotte (0-8, 1-11).
Conf USA West: 1. Louisiana Tech (7-1, 9-3), 2. Rice (6-2, 7-5), 3. UTEP (5-3, 6-6), 4. Southern Miss (3-5, 4-8), 5. North Texas (1-7, 2-10), 6. UTSA (1-7, 1-11).
(Marshall defeats LaTech, but strength of schedule keeps them from the New Year's Six.)
Mid-American West: 1. Toledo (7-1, 10-2), 2. Northern Illinois (7-1, 10-2), 3. Western Michigan (6-2, 7-5), 4. Ball St (6-2, 8-4), 5. Central Michigan (3-5, 4-8), 6. Eastern Michigan (0-8, 0-12).
Mid-American East: 1. Akron (7-1, 9-3), 2. Bowling Green (6-2, 8-4), 3. U Mass (4-4, 4-8), 4. Ohio (3-5, 5-7), 5. Kent St (3-5, 4-8), 6. Buffalo (1-7, 1-11), 7. Miami-OH (1-7, 1-11).
(Toledo defeats Akron for championship.)
Sun Belt: 1. Appalachian St (8-0, 10-2), 2t. Georgia Southern (7-1, 8-4), 2t. Arkansas St (7-1, 8-4), 4. UL-Lafayette (5-3, 6-6), 5. Texas St (5-3, 7-5), 6, South Alabama (4-4, 5-7), 7. New Mexico St (3-5, 4-8), 8. Troy (2-6, 3-9), 9. UL-Monroe (2-6, 3-9), 10. Idaho (1-7, 2-10), 11. Georgia St (0-8, 1-11).
(GASO and ArkSt do not play each other; the other ties do)
So, a few surprises even for us in our own predictions, once you really dig into the schedules and see who each team plays, and where, and when. I think the stand-out surprise to me was Army going 6-6 this year, but their schedule is paper-thin. Marshall going 12-0 startled me, until I realized their only difficult game will be Western KY, and they'll be SO pumped for revenge that we're betting they win that one, too. Toledo and Akron are NOT the two best teams in the MAC, but they're the two with the fewest losses looming on their schedules! (It all depends on your crossover opponents!). Minnesota going 10-2 may shock some, but their three hardest (non-OSU) games are at home. In defense of Oregon going over Clemson to the playoffs, even w/ two losses, it looks as though the four lions at the top of the Pac-12 (OU, Stanford, UCLA, USC) will loom as so dominant that it becomes inevitable that ONE of them (by definition, the champ) goes to the playoff, and after USC and UCLA decimate each other one Saturday, Oregon should pick off the survivor the next weekend. I honestly looked for scenarios where Alabama, Ohio St, and TCU didn't go to the playoffs, or where Boise didn't return to New Year's Day...but that's not likely.
SEC West: 1. Alabama (7-1, 11-1), 2. LSU (6-2, 10-2), 3. Auburn (6-2, 10-2), 4. Ole Miss (5-3, 9-3), 5. Texas A&M (4-4, 8-4), 6. Arkansas (2-6, 6-6), 7. Mississippi St (2-6, 6-6).
SEC East: 1. Georgia (6-2, 10-2), 2. Tennessee (6-2, 10-2), 3. Missouri (4-4, 8-4), 4. South Carolina (3-5, 6-6), 5. Kentucky (2-6, 5-7), 6. Florida (1-7, 4-8), 7. Vanderbilt (0-8, 3-9).
(Alabama def. Georgia for championship; CFP bound.)
PAC-12 North: 1. Oregon (8-1, 10-2), 2. Stanford (7-2, even beating UO!, 9-3), 3. California (3-6, 5-7), 4. Washington (2-7, 4-8), 5. Washington St (2-7, 4-8), 6. Oregon St (1-8, 3-9).
PAC-12 South: 1. UCLA (8-1, 11-1), 2. USC (7-2, 10-2), 3. Arizona St (6-3, 8-4), 4. Arizona (5-4, 8-4), 5. Utah (4-5, 6-6), 6. Colorado (0-9, 2-10).
(Oregon defeats UCLA for championship; CFP bound.)
BIG 12: 1. TCU (9-0, 11-1), 2. Baylor (8-1, 11-1), 3. Oklahoma (7-2, 9-3), 4. Texas (6-3, 8-4), 5. Oklahoma St (4-5, 7-5), 6. West Virginia (4-5, 7-5), 7. Kansas St (3-6, 6-6), 8. Texas Tech (2-7, 4-8), 9. Iowa St (1-8, 2-10) 10. Kansas (1-8, 2-10).
(TCU goes to CFP.)
BIG 10 East: 1. Ohio St (8-0, 12-0), 2. Michigan St (7-1, 11-1), 3. Penn St (6-2, 10-2), 4. Michigan (5-3, 9-3), 5. Indiana (2-6, 5-7), 6. Maryland (1-7, 4-8), 7. Rutgers (1-7, 5-7).
BIG 10 West: 1. Wisconsin (7-1, 10-2), 2. Minnesota (6-2, 10-2), 3. Nebraska (5-3, 7-5), 4. Iowa (4-4, 8-4), 5. Northwestern (2-6, 4-8), 6. Illinois (1-7, 4-8), 7. Purdue (0-8, 1-11).
(Ohio St defeats Wisconsin - again; CFP bound.)
ACC Atlantic: 1. Clemson (7-1, 11-1), 2. Florida St (6-2, 10-2), 3. North Carolina St (6-2, 10-2), 4. Louisville (5-3, 8-4), 5. Boston College (2-6, 4-8), 6. Syracuse (1-7, 4-8), 7. Wake Forest (0-8, 2-10).
ACC Coastal: 1. Virginia Tech (7-1, 10-2), 2. Georgia Tech (6-2, 8-4), 3. Duke (5-3, 9-3), 4. Miami-FL (4-4, 7-5), 5. North Carolina (4-4, 8-4), 6. Pitt (2-6, 4-8), 7. Virginia (0-8, 1-11).
(Clemson defeats Virginia Tech, but will be the odd team out of the CFP.)
Independents: Notre Dame (10-2), BYU (7-5), Army-West Point (6-6).
American East: 1. Central Florida (7-1, 9-3), 2. East Carolina (6-2, 7-5), 3. Cincinnati (5-3, 8-4), 4. Temple (5-3, 7-5), 5. South Florida (2-6, 3-9), 6. U Conn (1-7, 2-10).
American West: 1. Houston (7-1, 10-2), 2. Memphis (6-2, 8-4), 3. Navy (5-3, 8-4), 4. SMU (2-6, 3-9), 5. Tulane (2-6, 4-8), 6. Tulsa (0-8, 2-10).
(Central Florida defeats Houston for championship.)
Mountain West MTN: 1. Boise St (8-0, 12-0), 2. Utah St (7-1, 8-4), 3. Colorado St (6-2, 9-3), 4. Air Force (5-3, 7-5), 5. Wyoming (2-6, 4-8), 6. New Mexico (1-7, 4-8).
Mountain West WST: 1. San Diego St (6-2, 7-5), 2. Nevada (5-3, 7-5). 3. San Jose St (3-5, 4-8), 4. Fresno St (3-5, 4-8), 5. UNLV 1-7, 2-10), 6. Hawai'i (1-7, 3-10).
(Boise St defeats San Diego St, qualifies for New Year's Six Bowls.)
Conf USA East: 1. Marshall (8-0, 12-0), 2. Western Kentucky (7-1, 9-3), 3. Middle Tennessee (5-3, 6-6), 4. Old Dominion (5-3, 8-4), 5. Florida International (3-5, 4-8), 6. Florida Atlantic (1-7, 2-10), 7. UNC-Charlotte (0-8, 1-11).
Conf USA West: 1. Louisiana Tech (7-1, 9-3), 2. Rice (6-2, 7-5), 3. UTEP (5-3, 6-6), 4. Southern Miss (3-5, 4-8), 5. North Texas (1-7, 2-10), 6. UTSA (1-7, 1-11).
(Marshall defeats LaTech, but strength of schedule keeps them from the New Year's Six.)
Mid-American West: 1. Toledo (7-1, 10-2), 2. Northern Illinois (7-1, 10-2), 3. Western Michigan (6-2, 7-5), 4. Ball St (6-2, 8-4), 5. Central Michigan (3-5, 4-8), 6. Eastern Michigan (0-8, 0-12).
Mid-American East: 1. Akron (7-1, 9-3), 2. Bowling Green (6-2, 8-4), 3. U Mass (4-4, 4-8), 4. Ohio (3-5, 5-7), 5. Kent St (3-5, 4-8), 6. Buffalo (1-7, 1-11), 7. Miami-OH (1-7, 1-11).
(Toledo defeats Akron for championship.)
Sun Belt: 1. Appalachian St (8-0, 10-2), 2t. Georgia Southern (7-1, 8-4), 2t. Arkansas St (7-1, 8-4), 4. UL-Lafayette (5-3, 6-6), 5. Texas St (5-3, 7-5), 6, South Alabama (4-4, 5-7), 7. New Mexico St (3-5, 4-8), 8. Troy (2-6, 3-9), 9. UL-Monroe (2-6, 3-9), 10. Idaho (1-7, 2-10), 11. Georgia St (0-8, 1-11).
(GASO and ArkSt do not play each other; the other ties do)
So, a few surprises even for us in our own predictions, once you really dig into the schedules and see who each team plays, and where, and when. I think the stand-out surprise to me was Army going 6-6 this year, but their schedule is paper-thin. Marshall going 12-0 startled me, until I realized their only difficult game will be Western KY, and they'll be SO pumped for revenge that we're betting they win that one, too. Toledo and Akron are NOT the two best teams in the MAC, but they're the two with the fewest losses looming on their schedules! (It all depends on your crossover opponents!). Minnesota going 10-2 may shock some, but their three hardest (non-OSU) games are at home. In defense of Oregon going over Clemson to the playoffs, even w/ two losses, it looks as though the four lions at the top of the Pac-12 (OU, Stanford, UCLA, USC) will loom as so dominant that it becomes inevitable that ONE of them (by definition, the champ) goes to the playoff, and after USC and UCLA decimate each other one Saturday, Oregon should pick off the survivor the next weekend. I honestly looked for scenarios where Alabama, Ohio St, and TCU didn't go to the playoffs, or where Boise didn't return to New Year's Day...but that's not likely.
Friday, May 29, 2015
Is it too early to talk Top 30 in college football?
Yes. Yes it is.
However, Sports Illustrated doesn't think so, and they've put out their "post-spring camp Top 25" plus five more, and it's an interesting list to peruse...
1. Ohio State 11. Stanford 21. Georgia Tech
2. Baylor 12. Ole Miss 22. Oklahoma
3. Auburn 13. Arizona 23. BYU
4. Alabama 14. USC 24. LSU
5. Michigan St 15. Boise State 25. Oklahoma St
6. TCU 16. Clemson 26. Arkansas
7. Notre Dame 17. Missouri 27. Utah
8. UCLA 18. Georgia 28. Mississippi St
9. Florida St 19. Arizona St 29. Texas
10. Oregon 20. Wisconsin 30. Michigan
I find this list absolutely fascinating to contemplate, which is why I post it. At Following Football, we do NOT rank football teams until somewhen in mid-October at the earliest. What we do do is group teams into what we call "tiers"; eventually there'll be about twenty tiers, A through T or so, even when they're ranked (that's also how we project game outcomes) but at the very beginning of the season? We'll divide them up into two, three, four tiers...then six or seven...then maybe eight or ten..until we have enough information to rank them all, #1-127. (UAB football, rest in peace.)
But about THIS list? Look at these crunchy tidbits!
> Auburn 3 and Alabama 4? Delicious!
> OSU deserves #1, but MSU isn't very far behind at #5...
> Baylor at 2 and TCU way back at 6? But TCU's the one bringing their QB back!
> How about this one? Everett Golson goes to perennial playoff contender Florida St, #9... but the team he left is #7!
> Look at the Pac-12! UCLA #8, Oregon #10, Stanford #11, Arizona #13, USC #14, and Arizona State at #19! (Even Utah sneaking in at 27!) THAT will be a packed conference!
> The "Group of Five" better figure out a way to defeat Boise State! They start the season ranked this year...even a loss or two may not knock them out of the top non-Power spot! (Only BYU sits on the list, at #23, to challenge.)
> Oklahoma 22 and Okee State 25? Fun!
> Arkansas 26 and Texas 29? (Or OU/UT? Or...)
> And look who they've got sneaking in at #30! High hopes, indeed, Mr. Harbaugh!
However, Sports Illustrated doesn't think so, and they've put out their "post-spring camp Top 25" plus five more, and it's an interesting list to peruse...
1. Ohio State 11. Stanford 21. Georgia Tech
2. Baylor 12. Ole Miss 22. Oklahoma
3. Auburn 13. Arizona 23. BYU
4. Alabama 14. USC 24. LSU
5. Michigan St 15. Boise State 25. Oklahoma St
6. TCU 16. Clemson 26. Arkansas
7. Notre Dame 17. Missouri 27. Utah
8. UCLA 18. Georgia 28. Mississippi St
9. Florida St 19. Arizona St 29. Texas
10. Oregon 20. Wisconsin 30. Michigan
I find this list absolutely fascinating to contemplate, which is why I post it. At Following Football, we do NOT rank football teams until somewhen in mid-October at the earliest. What we do do is group teams into what we call "tiers"; eventually there'll be about twenty tiers, A through T or so, even when they're ranked (that's also how we project game outcomes) but at the very beginning of the season? We'll divide them up into two, three, four tiers...then six or seven...then maybe eight or ten..until we have enough information to rank them all, #1-127. (UAB football, rest in peace.)
But about THIS list? Look at these crunchy tidbits!
> Auburn 3 and Alabama 4? Delicious!
> OSU deserves #1, but MSU isn't very far behind at #5...
> Baylor at 2 and TCU way back at 6? But TCU's the one bringing their QB back!
> How about this one? Everett Golson goes to perennial playoff contender Florida St, #9... but the team he left is #7!
> Look at the Pac-12! UCLA #8, Oregon #10, Stanford #11, Arizona #13, USC #14, and Arizona State at #19! (Even Utah sneaking in at 27!) THAT will be a packed conference!
> The "Group of Five" better figure out a way to defeat Boise State! They start the season ranked this year...even a loss or two may not knock them out of the top non-Power spot! (Only BYU sits on the list, at #23, to challenge.)
> Oklahoma 22 and Okee State 25? Fun!
> Arkansas 26 and Texas 29? (Or OU/UT? Or...)
> And look who they've got sneaking in at #30! High hopes, indeed, Mr. Harbaugh!
Tuesday, March 10, 2015
Good review of where the colleges are...
As is often the case, ESPN is on top of the college spring practice scene, and more importantly, where teams are leaning as we look ahead to the fall. This piece by their Pac-12 man (and college go-to-guy!) Ted Miller does a great job surveying the landscape and looking at the BIG PICTURE in FBS football, as of March 2015!
Also, Heather Dinich writes a really great piece about where the current thinking is regarding out-of-conference scheduling - why the Big 12 schools are taking a risk (SMU, Lamar, and Rice? Really, Baylor?), while the Big Ten has the right idea (in my mind) with their 1910 plan - 1 major non-conference game, 9 conference games, 1 championship game, 0 FCS patsies scheduled.
Perfect.
No one's demanding you play a top ten school every week, big boys. Remember, there is no preseason in college football. Your first warm-up game counts! When Boise played "at" Ole Miss in August last year and lost, that game counted against them - it took a semi-perfect run of the table in October and November to get them back into New Year's Six contention. You lose that first game, you're in trouble - so if your first game is against the Little Sisters Of The Poor, Ohio State, I'll grant you that.
Just not the other two non-cons, okay? Play real teams.
Finally, there's a nice piece (also by Heather Dinich) which discusses the College Football Playoff system's successes and failures last year with the movers and shakers, decides that the former far outweighs the latter (and that they were burned by the constant 'tinkering' of the BCS formats), and that there won't be any changes in the near future to the CFP process. Four teams. Committee, some advance polls (maybe slight adjustments as to the when and how often), and no changes. The key word in the article is patience.
Also, Heather Dinich writes a really great piece about where the current thinking is regarding out-of-conference scheduling - why the Big 12 schools are taking a risk (SMU, Lamar, and Rice? Really, Baylor?), while the Big Ten has the right idea (in my mind) with their 1910 plan - 1 major non-conference game, 9 conference games, 1 championship game, 0 FCS patsies scheduled.
Perfect.
No one's demanding you play a top ten school every week, big boys. Remember, there is no preseason in college football. Your first warm-up game counts! When Boise played "at" Ole Miss in August last year and lost, that game counted against them - it took a semi-perfect run of the table in October and November to get them back into New Year's Six contention. You lose that first game, you're in trouble - so if your first game is against the Little Sisters Of The Poor, Ohio State, I'll grant you that.
Just not the other two non-cons, okay? Play real teams.
Finally, there's a nice piece (also by Heather Dinich) which discusses the College Football Playoff system's successes and failures last year with the movers and shakers, decides that the former far outweighs the latter (and that they were burned by the constant 'tinkering' of the BCS formats), and that there won't be any changes in the near future to the CFP process. Four teams. Committee, some advance polls (maybe slight adjustments as to the when and how often), and no changes. The key word in the article is patience.
Wednesday, March 4, 2015
The Philadelphia Kellys are rounding into shape...
Good piece today by Don Banks of SI.com on the Eagles/Bills trade that sent LeSean McCoy packing to Buffalo... more than ever, Chip Kelly plans on making the Eagles over in his own image, and anyone that doesn't fit with the scheme will be replaced, no matter how special a talent they might be (and make NO mistake: McCoy is a GREAT player).
Some great mid-major (and above) thoughts from "Fan-Sided"
Here are a couple of posts from the college football section of SI's FanSided, including one listing five schools who are not only ready to move up but additionally NEED to move up to a Power Five conference ASAP...a short clip about the contract extension for Boise State's head coach, but the real news is that little ol' Boise is giving its DC and OC three-year, million dollar contracts, something unheard of just a few years ago...and an interesting analysis of five schools who turn the two and three star recruits into five star players because of their coaching, style, consistency, and methods.
Tuesday, February 24, 2015
Mariota or Winston? You decide!
The latest mock draft I saw (from Don Banks on SI.com) has Jamies Winston going with the first pick of the draft to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which is perfectly viable given that coach Lovie Smith has said that he's "OK" with what they know about the FSU quarterback at this point. On the other hand, Greg Bedard of MMQB (ironically, a subsidiary of SI) is firmly convinced that it's a smoke screen, and the Bucs have locked in on Marcus Mariota, because of the Ducks' QB's connection to coach Mark Helfrich, and his connection to the new OC and QB coaches at Tampa Bay.
Which would YOU choose? If you're Tampa Bay - let's face it: you NEED a quarterback. (Currently, they have ONE on the roster, a perennial back up.) Do you take the local-ish boy with the baggage? Or the "safe bet" whose background fits the background of Dirk Koetter and Lovie Smith?
Which would YOU choose? If you're Tampa Bay - let's face it: you NEED a quarterback. (Currently, they have ONE on the roster, a perennial back up.) Do you take the local-ish boy with the baggage? Or the "safe bet" whose background fits the background of Dirk Koetter and Lovie Smith?
Tuesday, February 10, 2015
How STUPID are the combines?
Ryan O'Hanlon of Grantland nails it on the head with this "hypothetical" piece on the draft process and Oregon QB Marcus Mariota - a man who was the consensus BEST quarterback in the draft all season (you know, when they were actually playing games?), but now that we're playing with the numbers instead of watching them actually play football, it's more a Jamies Winston crowd out there.
Let's write this down right now - February 10th, 2015: Mariota will have a better career than Winston. However you choose to define it - starts, yards, success, lack of arrests, whatever... As O'Hanlon points out, this is exactly what happened to Teddy Bridgewater last year (consensus #1 all season, fell to the bottom of the first round, was still the most successful of the rookie QBs last year) and Aaron Rodgers a few years back (same scenario, dropped to #22 and the Packers, and he turned out all right...).
Let's write this down right now - February 10th, 2015: Mariota will have a better career than Winston. However you choose to define it - starts, yards, success, lack of arrests, whatever... As O'Hanlon points out, this is exactly what happened to Teddy Bridgewater last year (consensus #1 all season, fell to the bottom of the first round, was still the most successful of the rookie QBs last year) and Aaron Rodgers a few years back (same scenario, dropped to #22 and the Packers, and he turned out all right...).
Wednesday, January 14, 2015
The final AP poll for 2014 (compared to ours!)
Here's Dr. Saturday's Nick Bromberg and his article on the final AP poll of the year. There are several interesting rankings to notice...
> TCU is ranked third, despite not making the playoff. To their credit, they had TCU up to or near third before the playoff (we had them fifth, so we've left them fifth).
> Georgia Tech is indeed one spot ahead of Georgia, but Boise St is a spot ahead of Ole Miss, who beat them soundly on a (theoretically) neutral field at the beginning of the year. Is that significant? Even as a Bronco fan, I'd have reversed them.
> Marshall wasn't in the previous top 25, but they finished the year as #23.
Here are the Following Football final rankings, as well as the AP poll for comparison:
AP #23. Marshall
AP #24. Louisville
AP #25. Memphis
And if you're REALLY ambitious and looking ahead to 2015, check out Mark Schlabach's "way-too-early Top 25" for next fall from ESPN, where TCU, Ohio St, and Baylor make up the top 3 (none of whom are SEC teams! Gasp!)...
> TCU is ranked third, despite not making the playoff. To their credit, they had TCU up to or near third before the playoff (we had them fifth, so we've left them fifth).
> Georgia Tech is indeed one spot ahead of Georgia, but Boise St is a spot ahead of Ole Miss, who beat them soundly on a (theoretically) neutral field at the beginning of the year. Is that significant? Even as a Bronco fan, I'd have reversed them.
> Marshall wasn't in the previous top 25, but they finished the year as #23.
Here are the Following Football final rankings, as well as the AP poll for comparison:
| 1. Ohio St (AP #1) |
| 2. Oregon (AP #2) |
| 3. Alabama (AP #4) |
| 4. Florida St (AP #5tie) |
| 5. TCU (AP #3) |
| 6. Michigan St(AP#5tie) |
| 7. Baylor (AP #7) |
| 8. Georgia Tech (AP #8) |
| 9. Miss St (AP #11) |
| 10. Georgia (AP #9) |
| 11. UCLA (AP #10) |
| 12. Ole Miss (AP #17) |
| 13. Missouri (AP #14) |
| 14. Kansas St (AP #18) |
| 15. Clemson (AP #15) |
| 16. Wisconsin (AP #13) |
| 17. Auburn (AP #22) |
| 18. Boise St (AP #16) |
| 19. Arizona St (AP #12) |
| 20. USC (AP #20) |
| 21. Arizona (AP #19) |
| 22. LSU |
| 23. Utah (AP #21) |
| 24. Texas A&M |
| 25. Stanford |
AP #23. Marshall
AP #24. Louisville
AP #25. Memphis
And if you're REALLY ambitious and looking ahead to 2015, check out Mark Schlabach's "way-too-early Top 25" for next fall from ESPN, where TCU, Ohio St, and Baylor make up the top 3 (none of whom are SEC teams! Gasp!)...
Wednesday, January 7, 2015
This weekend's predictions...
As we hit the home stretch, there are just nine games left on the American football calendar - six of which hit this weekend!
The FCS Championship Game is in legendary Frisco, Texas this Saturday, and pits the defending champion North Dakota State Bison (14-1) against the Illinois State Redbirds (13-1).
Regardless of who wins, Northern Iowa is going to declare themselves the TRUE national champ, as they're the only team who beat BOTH of these combatants!
Vegas doesn't set lines on any college games except the FBS, but the Sagarin board has the Bison as a favorite by about 4 1/2 points. (Both teams would be all the way up into the "receiving votes" category: Illinois State falls in the #41 spot of all 252 division 1 teams (FBS and FCS combined), and NDSU actually ranks #32, above more famous teams like West Virginia, Arizona, Duke, Miami (FL) and Penn State!
Here at Following Football, we're also projecting a repeat for the three-time defenders from Fargo, but the Redbirds will be the stiffest test they've faced (UNI excluded, I suppose, although they weren't expected to be such a challenge). We'll go along with a 4.5 point line.
In the NFL, the two games on the weekend project as home team victories, but "that's why they play the game!", as they drone... New England is a 7 point favorite over Baltimore, according to Vegas and Sagarin; FF has them at about 7.5 points, adding the bye week advantage in as well. As for Seattle and Carolina, Vegas has the 'Hawks at 10.5 up, Sagarin at 13 up, and we list them at 9.5 point favorites. Regardless, it'll be an upset if either of the home teams fail to advance.
Sunday's games hold a bit more interest, although Following Football's biggest betting mantra is that the safest bet in football is the bye-week home team in the Divisional Round. Dallas heads to Green Bay in hopes of breaking that trend, but they're 6.5 point underdogs at the casinos, four-plus point 'dogs on Sagarin, and we have them as 5.5 point deficient. But on all those scales, the Cowboys are still the most likely road team to win this weekend; Dallas is the only road team among the five Tier A teams on our scale.
Meanwhile, Indianapolis goes to visit its old quarterback again, with Denver a 7 point favorite in Vegas, 4.5 on Sagarin, and a six point favorite with us. The thrill of Peyton Manning going bonkers against his old secondary becomes secondary (b-dm-cha!) to the thrill of the playoffs!
Finally, on Monday night, we get the first College Football Playoff National Championship game, sponsored by everyone on the planet who hated the BCS...don't look past the fact that neither Oregon nor Ohio State would have BEEN here under the BCS system! Certainly Florida State would have been included (defending champ, undefeated), and the top ranked school under durn near EVERY grading system except ours was Alabama. Last year, they would have played for the title, and Ohio State (59-0 winners over Wisconsin), Oregon (51-13 winners against Arizona), TCU (42-3 over Ole Miss), and Baylor (61-58 over TCU!) would have all had reasons to whine. TCU is STILL going to whine, but we're not an advocate of an eight team playoff, frankly. I got bored of the FCS playoffs after the second round - I don't think three rounds of FCS playoffs are a good idea, either. BESIDES, if all you need to do is win your Power Conference, the point of beefing up non-conference schedules goes away. FOUR TEAMS IS FINE.
ANYWAY...the Vegas line on the game is Oregon by six; Sagarin, on the other hand, favors Ohio State by half a point! At FF, we see it as a good game as well: right now, they're teams A1 and A2, which puts them in virtually a dead heat. I see Oregon as a slight favorite (which is why they're in the A1 slot), but I would NOT bet on this game! We'll call it Oregon by 1.
The FCS Championship Game is in legendary Frisco, Texas this Saturday, and pits the defending champion North Dakota State Bison (14-1) against the Illinois State Redbirds (13-1).
Regardless of who wins, Northern Iowa is going to declare themselves the TRUE national champ, as they're the only team who beat BOTH of these combatants!
Vegas doesn't set lines on any college games except the FBS, but the Sagarin board has the Bison as a favorite by about 4 1/2 points. (Both teams would be all the way up into the "receiving votes" category: Illinois State falls in the #41 spot of all 252 division 1 teams (FBS and FCS combined), and NDSU actually ranks #32, above more famous teams like West Virginia, Arizona, Duke, Miami (FL) and Penn State!
Here at Following Football, we're also projecting a repeat for the three-time defenders from Fargo, but the Redbirds will be the stiffest test they've faced (UNI excluded, I suppose, although they weren't expected to be such a challenge). We'll go along with a 4.5 point line.
In the NFL, the two games on the weekend project as home team victories, but "that's why they play the game!", as they drone... New England is a 7 point favorite over Baltimore, according to Vegas and Sagarin; FF has them at about 7.5 points, adding the bye week advantage in as well. As for Seattle and Carolina, Vegas has the 'Hawks at 10.5 up, Sagarin at 13 up, and we list them at 9.5 point favorites. Regardless, it'll be an upset if either of the home teams fail to advance.
Sunday's games hold a bit more interest, although Following Football's biggest betting mantra is that the safest bet in football is the bye-week home team in the Divisional Round. Dallas heads to Green Bay in hopes of breaking that trend, but they're 6.5 point underdogs at the casinos, four-plus point 'dogs on Sagarin, and we have them as 5.5 point deficient. But on all those scales, the Cowboys are still the most likely road team to win this weekend; Dallas is the only road team among the five Tier A teams on our scale.
Meanwhile, Indianapolis goes to visit its old quarterback again, with Denver a 7 point favorite in Vegas, 4.5 on Sagarin, and a six point favorite with us. The thrill of Peyton Manning going bonkers against his old secondary becomes secondary (b-dm-cha!) to the thrill of the playoffs!
Finally, on Monday night, we get the first College Football Playoff National Championship game, sponsored by everyone on the planet who hated the BCS...don't look past the fact that neither Oregon nor Ohio State would have BEEN here under the BCS system! Certainly Florida State would have been included (defending champ, undefeated), and the top ranked school under durn near EVERY grading system except ours was Alabama. Last year, they would have played for the title, and Ohio State (59-0 winners over Wisconsin), Oregon (51-13 winners against Arizona), TCU (42-3 over Ole Miss), and Baylor (61-58 over TCU!) would have all had reasons to whine. TCU is STILL going to whine, but we're not an advocate of an eight team playoff, frankly. I got bored of the FCS playoffs after the second round - I don't think three rounds of FCS playoffs are a good idea, either. BESIDES, if all you need to do is win your Power Conference, the point of beefing up non-conference schedules goes away. FOUR TEAMS IS FINE.
ANYWAY...the Vegas line on the game is Oregon by six; Sagarin, on the other hand, favors Ohio State by half a point! At FF, we see it as a good game as well: right now, they're teams A1 and A2, which puts them in virtually a dead heat. I see Oregon as a slight favorite (which is why they're in the A1 slot), but I would NOT bet on this game! We'll call it Oregon by 1.
Tuesday, January 6, 2015
Our "FINAL" college football rankings for the 2014 season!
As the college season comes down to its final game next Monday evening, it's time to present our final tiers and rankings for the 2014 football season. (The asterisk by A1 and A2, of course, mean that the winner of the CFP title game will be A1, and the other team A2. At the moment, though, we have Oregon first.) The tiers don't always fall neatly into groups of six: for example, the top four and TCU seem to be a full step ahead of the next group of schools, so we didn't force a sixth team into that "A" tier.
Here we go...
Here we go...
| FOLLOWING FOOTBALL - FINAL RANKINGS for 2014! | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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a few thoughts...
...the SEC ended up with nine teams in spots #3, 9, 10, 12, 13, 17, 22, 24, and 26 (including ALL SEVEN of the SEC West schools!)...but none in the championship game (and only one in the top 8, fewer than the Big Ten, Big Twelve, OR the ACC!).
...the conferences tended to spread themselves out at the top relatively well: the top 5 came from five different conferences (all five power conferences, naturally), and no school had more than two teams in the top 9.
...Within the top four tiers (#1-23), there are seven SEC teams, six Pac-12 teams (#1, 11, 19, 20, 21, and 23), three Big Ten teams (#2, 6, and 16), three Big 12 teams (#5, 7, and 14), three ACC teams (#4, 8, and 15), and one Mountain West "Group Of Five" interloper (Boise St at #18).
...In the end, our top four matched the CFP committee's Top four on Dec 7, albeit in a different order (we originally had Oregon first), which is why we resisted moving TCU past any of them into the top 4 despite their brutally dominant performance. However bad the Seminole loss was, it was to a top 4 team.
...Looking at our Bottom 14 teams, we find that there were five from the Sun Belt (with Georgia St and New Mexico St taking the lowest rungs in tier V), four from the MAC, and three from the old Big East, now called the AAC (including SMU, who resided winless in the cellar ALL season long until their victory on the last day of the season over UConn!).
..Next fall, we plan to start from this ranking, even though teams are going to change DRASTICALLY between now and then: without game data to evaluate teams, there's no real way to gauge how to change our tiers. (Of course, once the games start, we'll be VERY willing to move teams dramatically if there's a dramatic difference!) The other principle we abide by is that actually ranking teams early in the season is futile and pointless, so all you'll see are the tiers for awhile, just as we did this year.
...the conferences tended to spread themselves out at the top relatively well: the top 5 came from five different conferences (all five power conferences, naturally), and no school had more than two teams in the top 9.
...Within the top four tiers (#1-23), there are seven SEC teams, six Pac-12 teams (#1, 11, 19, 20, 21, and 23), three Big Ten teams (#2, 6, and 16), three Big 12 teams (#5, 7, and 14), three ACC teams (#4, 8, and 15), and one Mountain West "Group Of Five" interloper (Boise St at #18).
...In the end, our top four matched the CFP committee's Top four on Dec 7, albeit in a different order (we originally had Oregon first), which is why we resisted moving TCU past any of them into the top 4 despite their brutally dominant performance. However bad the Seminole loss was, it was to a top 4 team.
...Looking at our Bottom 14 teams, we find that there were five from the Sun Belt (with Georgia St and New Mexico St taking the lowest rungs in tier V), four from the MAC, and three from the old Big East, now called the AAC (including SMU, who resided winless in the cellar ALL season long until their victory on the last day of the season over UConn!).
..Next fall, we plan to start from this ranking, even though teams are going to change DRASTICALLY between now and then: without game data to evaluate teams, there's no real way to gauge how to change our tiers. (Of course, once the games start, we'll be VERY willing to move teams dramatically if there's a dramatic difference!) The other principle we abide by is that actually ranking teams early in the season is futile and pointless, so all you'll see are the tiers for awhile, just as we did this year.
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